Round 5 of 20 Aftermath

Portuguese Grand Prix 2022

Autódromo Internacional do Algarve Portugal

4.590 m · 25 laps · since 2020

22.04 – 24.04.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	41:39.611	25
2	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+5.409	20
3	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+6.068	16
4	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+9.633	13
5	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+13.573	11
6	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+16.163	10
7	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+16.183	9
8	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+16.511	8
9	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+16.769	7
10	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+18.063	6
11	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+29.029	5
12	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+29.249	4
13	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+33.354	3
14	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+40.205	2
15	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+46.052	1
16	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+49.569	0
17	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+50.303	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Johann Zarco · 29%	Fabio Quartararo · 8% · from P5	0.47 / 0.47	3.6 / 3.4

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:39.833	—	+0.275	Medium	23
Aleix Espargaro	1:39.968	+0.135	+0.209	Medium	23
Jack Miller	1:40.018	+0.185	+0.105	Medium	16
Johann Zarco	1:40.024	+0.191	+0.344	Medium	22
Alex Rins	1:40.032	+0.199	+0.217	Medium	23
Joan Mir	1:40.082	+0.249	+0.562	Medium	16
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.257	+0.424	+0.221	Medium	23
Miguel Oliveira	1:40.348	+0.515	+0.193	Medium	23
Marc Marquez	1:40.358	+0.525	+0.210	Medium	22
Takaaki Nakagami	1:40.372	+0.539	+0.359	Medium	20
Pol Espargaro	1:40.384	+0.551	+0.406	Hard	22
Brad Binder	1:40.402	+0.569	+0.327	Medium	15
Alex Marquez	1:40.421	+0.588	+0.356	Hard	23
Maverick Viñales	1:40.502	+0.669	+0.292	Medium	23
Enea Bastianini	1:40.608	+0.775	+0.319	Medium	7
Andrea Dovizioso	1:40.758	+0.925	+0.226	Medium	20
Luca Marini	1:40.933	+1.100	+0.308	Medium	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:41.006	+1.173	+0.512	Medium	20
Remy Gardner	1:41.290	+1.457	+1.660	Medium	22
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:41.530	+1.697	+0.320	Medium	18
Marco Bezzecchi	1:41.618	+1.785	+0.553	Medium	23
Darryn Binder	1:41.675	+1.842	+0.272	Medium	22
Lorenzo Savadori	1:42.231	+2.398	+0.781	Medium	22

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

22/25

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Quartararo

5.409 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P23 to P4.

Longest battle: Darryn Binder vs Fabio Di Giannantonio (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	13:09:00	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:16:49	Enea Bastianini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:19:05	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:30:26	Brad Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:31:01	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:31:01	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:38:48	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Retired	Retired
Race	13:42:43	Lorenzo Savadori	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Race: 2 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Joan Mir (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Rins	23	10	+13
Enea Bastianini	18	13	+5
Miguel Oliveira	11	6	+5
Marco Bezzecchi	6	15	−9
Luca Marini	8	16	−8
Aleix Espargaro	3	7	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Rins	23→4	+13.0
Francesco Bagnaia	24→8	+9.6
Fabio Quartararo	5→1	+4.4
Takaaki Nakagami	17→16	−2.9
Luca Marini	8→12	−4.7
Marco Bezzecchi	6→15	−9.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	92%	+0.62%	−0.008	1	3	9.1
Hard	8%	+0.57%	−0.011	0	0	8.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

16.4 °C

Air

max 16.9 °C

73%

Humidity

0.6 mm

Rain

11 km/h

Wind

gusts 29 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 22.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:50.666	—	17	331.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:52.009	+0.17%	13	Wet-Soft
2	Joan Mir	01:51.031	+0.365	17	328.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:55.588	+3.37%	6	Wet-Soft
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:51.136	+0.470	16	330.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:51.822	—	5	Wet-Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:51.170	+0.504	19	333.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:53.517	+1.52%	9	Wet-Soft
5	Miguel Oliveira	01:51.223	+0.557	20	326.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:52.473	+0.58%	11	Wet-Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	01:51.309	+0.643	18	331.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:53.906	+1.86%	12	Wet-Soft
7	Jorge Martin	01:51.343	+0.677	19	327.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:52.922	+0.98%	14	Wet-Soft
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:51.387	+0.721	19	331.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:52.366	+0.49%	13	Wet-Soft
9	Jack Miller	01:51.437	+0.771	13	331.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
10	Alex Marquez	01:51.648	+0.982	20	333.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:53.542	+1.54%	15	Wet-Soft
11	Brad Binder	01:51.659	+0.993	18	327.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:53.441	+1.45%	12	Wet-Soft
12	Luca Marini	01:51.709	+1.043	18	326.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:53.718	+1.70%	14	Wet-Soft
13	Remy Gardner	01:51.820	+1.154	18	323.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:54.450	+2.35%	11	Wet-Soft
14	Enea Bastianini	01:51.847	+1.181	16	330.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:52.849	+0.92%	11	Wet-Soft
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:51.881	+1.215	14	331.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:54.123	+2.06%	4	Wet-Soft
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:51.958	+1.292	17	330.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:54.456	+2.36%	10	Wet-Soft
17	Pol Espargaro	01:52.001	+1.335	20	332.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:53.590	+1.58%	13	Wet-Soft
18	Fabio Quartararo	01:52.061	+1.395	18	323.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:54.793	+2.66%	9	Wet-Soft
19	Franco Morbidelli	01:52.072	+1.406	19	321.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:55.647	+3.42%	13	Wet-Soft
20	Alex Rins	01:52.079	+1.413	20	330.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:54.614	+2.50%	6	Wet-Soft
21	Raul Fernandez	01:52.258	+1.592	18	321.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:53.754	+1.73%	12	Wet-Soft
22	Andrea Dovizioso	01:52.286	+1.620	17	325.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:53.574	+1.57%	12	Wet-Soft
23	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:52.881	+2.215	17	324.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:54.926	+2.78%	12	Wet-Soft
24	Darryn Binder	01:54.029	+3.363	18	324.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:56.455	+4.14%	11	Wet-Soft
25	Lorenzo Savadori	01:54.260	+3.594	15	326.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:55.280	+3.09%	5	Wet-Soft

FP2 · 22.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Pol Espargaro	01:50.707	—	8	328.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:52.075	+0.01%	5	Wet-Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:51.318	+0.611	8	327.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:54.508	+2.19%	6	Wet-Soft
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:51.756	+1.049	16	322.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:53.774	+1.53%	6	Wet-Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:51.789	+1.082	8	326.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
5	Jorge Martin	01:51.794	+1.087	8	325.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
6	Alex Marquez	01:51.874	+1.167	17	330.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:52.060	—	5	Wet-Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:51.911	+1.204	11	317.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:52.560	+0.45%	5	Wet-Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	01:51.925	+1.218	9	331.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:53.083	+0.91%	6	Wet-Soft
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:52.046	+1.339	16	329.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:52.890	+0.74%	5	Wet-Soft
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:52.100	+1.393	20	324.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:54.754	+2.40%	15	Wet-Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:52.306	+1.599	9	330.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:52.830	+0.69%	5	Wet-Soft
12	Johann Zarco	01:52.320	+1.613	11	329.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:52.534	+1.827	10	325.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:52.811	+0.67%	7	Wet-Soft
14	Enea Bastianini	01:52.582	+1.875	12	331.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:54.087	+1.81%	5	Wet-Soft
15	Remy Gardner	01:52.965	+2.258	15	322.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:53.334	+1.14%	5	Wet-Soft
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:53.003	+2.296	11	324.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
17	Jack Miller	01:53.103	+2.396	12	326.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
18	Aleix Espargaro	01:53.302	+2.595	10	329.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:54.150	+1.87%	5	Wet-Soft
19	Brad Binder	01:53.527	+2.820	17	325.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:00.036	+7.12%	11	Wet-Soft
20	Alex Rins	01:54.327	+3.620	15	329.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
21	Darryn Binder	01:54.385	+3.678	16	322.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:54.688	+2.35%	7	Wet-Soft
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:54.876	+4.169	10	326.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:55.126	+2.74%	4	Wet-Soft
23	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:55.571	+4.864	15	324.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:56.229	+3.72%	4	Wet-Soft
—	Luca Marini	01:58.592	+7.885	7	318.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
—	Raul Fernandez	01:56.330	+5.623	9	318.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—

FP3 · 23.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Miguel Oliveira	01:50.552	—	15	322.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:52.651	+1.36%	9	Wet-Soft
2	Joan Mir	01:50.601	+0.049	9	327.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:51.207	+0.06%	5	Wet-Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:50.606	+0.054	13	324.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:51.142	—	10	Wet-Soft
4	Brad Binder	01:50.659	+0.107	16	326.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:52.084	+0.85%	8	Wet-Soft
5	Johann Zarco	01:51.243	+0.691	15	334.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:51.978	+0.75%	8	Wet-Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:51.248	+0.696	15	330.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:52.392	+1.13%	10	Wet-Soft
7	Jack Miller	01:51.253	+0.701	17	333.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:54.653	+3.16%	11	Wet-Soft
8	Marc Marquez	01:51.385	+0.833	6	325.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:51.455	+0.903	19	325.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:52.516	+1.24%	7	Wet-Soft
10	Marco Bezzecchi	01:51.511	+0.959	16	333.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:54.090	+2.65%	12	Wet-Soft
11	Alex Marquez	01:51.567	+1.015	15	328.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:51.850	+1.298	14	328.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:52.257	+1.00%	5	Wet-Soft
13	Luca Marini	01:51.875	+1.323	17	327.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:56.536	+4.85%	12	Wet-Soft
14	Takaaki Nakagami	01:51.898	+1.346	17	330.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:53.076	+1.74%	6	Wet-Soft
15	Raul Fernandez	01:51.902	+1.350	15	323.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:53.457	+2.08%	5	Wet-Soft
16	Alex Rins	01:51.961	+1.409	15	332.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:52.755	+1.45%	5	Wet-Soft
17	Jorge Martin	01:52.153	+1.601	16	327.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:52.922	+1.60%	5	Wet-Soft
18	Remy Gardner	01:52.247	+1.695	13	320.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:53.982	+2.56%	6	Wet-Soft
19	Maverick Viñales	01:52.296	+1.744	13	328.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:53.190	+1.84%	5	Wet-Soft
20	Pol Espargaro	01:52.620	+2.068	9	328.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:53.486	+2.11%	5	Wet-Soft
21	Andrea Dovizioso	01:52.732	+2.180	14	325.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:56.508	+4.83%	5	Wet-Soft
22	Darryn Binder	01:53.252	+2.700	12	323.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:54.338	+2.88%	6	Wet-Soft
23	Enea Bastianini	01:53.413	+2.861	14	332.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
24	Lorenzo Savadori	01:53.780	+3.228	14	326.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
25	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:54.366	+3.814	18	329.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:55.582	+4.00%	12	Wet-Soft

FP4 · 23.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Miguel Oliveira	01:50.750	—	14	317.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:52.174	—	6	Wet-Medium
2	Jack Miller	01:51.554	+0.804	11	329.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:51.591	+0.841	11	326.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:54.180	+1.79%	4	Wet-Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:51.727	+0.977	11	317.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:51.807	+1.057	13	319.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:51.873	+1.123	11	324.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
7	Joan Mir	01:51.914	+1.164	10	322.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
8	Pol Espargaro	01:51.931	+1.181	12	325.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
9	Maverick Viñales	01:52.033	+1.283	10	324.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
10	Johann Zarco	01:52.065	+1.315	14	334.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:52.959	+0.70%	7	Wet-Medium
11	Alex Rins	01:52.082	+1.332	13	327.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:53.975	+1.61%	5	Wet-Soft
12	Marc Marquez	01:52.239	+1.489	7	320.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
13	Takaaki Nakagami	01:52.315	+1.565	13	328.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:53.239	+0.95%	6	Wet-Soft
14	Alex Marquez	01:52.364	+1.614	7	324.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
15	Brad Binder	01:52.474	+1.724	13	325.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:54.420	+2.00%	4	Wet-Soft
16	Remy Gardner	01:52.866	+2.116	15	320.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:53.694	+1.36%	9	Wet-Soft
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:53.005	+2.255	13	328.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:53.571	+1.25%	5	Wet-Soft
18	Jorge Martin	01:53.061	+2.311	11	328.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:54.183	+1.79%	5	Wet-Soft
19	Enea Bastianini	01:53.322	+2.572	10	328.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
20	Raul Fernandez	01:53.522	+2.772	12	317.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:54.181	+1.79%	5	Wet-Soft
21	Andrea Dovizioso	01:53.767	+3.017	8	318.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
22	Luca Marini	01:53.921	+3.171	14	319.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:54.607	+2.17%	12	Wet-Soft
23	Darryn Binder	01:54.749	+3.999	14	316.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:55.640	+3.09%	10	Wet-Soft
24	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:54.957	+4.207	9	326.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:55.547	+3.01%	7	Wet-Soft
25	Lorenzo Savadori	01:55.443	+4.693	7	325.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—

Q1 · 23.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	01:46.316	—	8	330.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Luca Marini	01:47.199	+0.883	6	320.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Jorge Martin	01:47.936	+1.620	8	328.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Maverick Viñales	01:49.332	+3.016	5	326.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:49.639	+3.323	6	320.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.695	+3.379	7	318.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:49.889	+3.573	7	320.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
8	Enea Bastianini	01:50.618	+4.302	6	329.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:50.702	+4.386	7	315.7	missing / missing	—			—
10	Remy Gardner	01:50.953	+4.637	4	313.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
11	Lorenzo Savadori	01:51.308	+4.992	6	326.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
12	Darryn Binder	01:51.639	+5.323	8	316.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:52.441	—	4	Wet-Medium
13	Alex Rins	01:52.300	+5.984	7	321.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
14	Raul Fernandez	01:53.603	+7.287	6	319.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		—	0	0.0	Soft / Soft	—			—

Q2 · 23.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:42.003	—	9	340.6	Soft / Soft	1:44.625	+0.72%	6	Soft
2	Joan Mir	01:42.198	+0.195	9	331.2	Soft / Soft	1:44.494	+0.59%	6	Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:42.235	+0.232	9	334.3	Soft / Soft	1:46.988	+2.99%	6	Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:42.503	+0.500	8	338.5	Soft / Soft	1:43.880	—	5	Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:42.716	+0.713	8	333.3	Soft / Soft	1:44.363	+0.47%	6	Soft
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:42.716	+0.713	9	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:46.027	+2.07%	7	Soft
7	Alex Marquez	01:42.903	+0.900	9	336.4	Soft / Soft	1:46.569	+2.59%	7	Soft
8	Luca Marini	01:43.179	+1.176	9	331.2	Soft / Soft	1:46.164	+2.20%	6	Soft
9	Marc Marquez	01:43.575	+1.572	8	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Pol Espargaro	01:43.832	+1.829	7	333.3	Soft / Soft	1:46.766	+2.78%	5	Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:44.066	+2.063	8	333.3	Soft / Soft	1:47.737	+3.71%	6	Soft
12	Brad Binder	01:44.710	+2.707	8	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:48.280	+4.24%	6	Soft

Warm Up · 24.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.278	—	12	341.7	Soft / Medium	1:40.526	—	10	Medium
2	Jack Miller	01:40.336	+0.058	12	348.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.397	+0.87%	9	Medium
3	Marc Marquez	01:40.586	+0.308	12	340.6	Medium / Medium	1:41.826	+1.29%	7	Medium
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.618	+0.340	12	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:42.790	+2.25%	9	Soft
5	Alex Marquez	01:40.639	+0.361	12	339.6	Soft / Hard	1:41.851	+1.32%	10	Hard
6	Maverick Viñales	01:40.723	+0.445	12	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:41.912	+1.38%	10	Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:40.777	+0.499	12	336.4	Soft / Medium	1:41.624	+1.09%	8	Medium
8	Brad Binder	01:40.781	+0.503	12	340.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.963	+1.43%	8	Medium
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.851	+0.573	12	334.3	Soft / Medium	1:45.239	+4.69%	9	Medium
10	Johann Zarco	01:40.882	+0.604	12	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:41.878	+1.35%	9	Medium
11	Alex Rins	01:40.986	+0.708	12	336.4	Soft / Medium	1:42.578	+2.04%	10	Medium
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.082	+0.804	11	341.7	Soft / Medium	1:42.578	+2.04%	6	Medium
13	Enea Bastianini	01:41.139	+0.861	10	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:43.278	+2.74%	6	Medium
14	Pol Espargaro	01:41.206	+0.928	12	338.5	Soft / Hard	1:42.400	+1.86%	8	Hard
15	Jorge Martin	01:41.213	+0.935	7	340.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.508	+0.98%	5	Medium
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.290	+1.012	12	333.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.853	+1.32%	9	Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:41.322	+1.044	12	334.3	Soft / Medium	1:43.144	+2.60%	9	Medium
18	Luca Marini	01:41.330	+1.052	12	341.7	Soft / Medium	1:42.770	+2.23%	9	Medium
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:41.350	+1.072	10	336.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Marco Bezzecchi	01:41.787	+1.509	9	341.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Remy Gardner	01:42.102	+1.824	12	333.3	Soft / Medium	1:43.535	+2.99%	8	Medium
22	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:42.512	+2.234	11	334.3	Soft / Medium	1:43.166	+2.63%	8	Medium
23	Lorenzo Savadori	01:42.817	+2.539	12	338.5	Medium / Medium	1:43.894	+3.35%	9	Medium
24	Darryn Binder	01:44.016	+3.738	12	338.5	Soft / Medium	1:45.671	+5.12%	8	Medium

Race · 24.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	41:39.611	25	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.833	—	23	Medium
2	Johann Zarco	+5.409	20	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.024	+0.19%	22	Medium
3	Aleix Espargaro	+6.068	16	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.968	+0.14%	23	Medium
4	Alex Rins	+9.633	13	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.032	+0.20%	23	Medium
5	Miguel Oliveira	+13.573	11	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.348	+0.52%	23	Medium
6	Marc Marquez	+16.163	10	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.358	+0.53%	22	Medium
7	Alex Marquez	+16.183	9	25	Medium / Hard	1:40.421	+0.59%	23	Hard
8	Francesco Bagnaia	+16.511	8	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.257	+0.43%	23	Medium
9	Pol Espargaro	+16.769	7	25	Medium / Hard	1:40.384	+0.55%	22	Hard
10	Maverick Viñales	+18.063	6	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.502	+0.67%	23	Medium
11	Andrea Dovizioso	+29.029	5	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.758	+0.93%	20	Medium
12	Luca Marini	+29.249	4	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.933	+1.10%	23	Medium
13	Franco Morbidelli	+33.354	3	25	Medium / Medium	1:41.006	+1.18%	20	Medium
14	Remy Gardner	+40.205	2	25	Medium / Medium	1:41.290	+1.46%	22	Medium
15	Marco Bezzecchi	+46.052	1	25	Medium / Medium	1:41.618	+1.79%	23	Medium
16	Takaaki Nakagami	+49.569	0	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.372	+0.54%	20	Medium
17	Darryn Binder	+50.303	0	25	Medium / Medium	1:41.675	+1.85%	22	Medium
Retired	Brad Binder		0	17	Medium / Medium	1:40.402	+0.57%	15	Medium
Retired	Enea Bastianini		0	9	Medium / Medium	1:40.608	+0.78%	7	Medium
Retired	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	21	Medium / Medium	1:41.530	+1.70%	18	Medium
Retired	Jack Miller		0	18	Medium / Medium	1:40.018	+0.19%	16	Medium
Retired	Joan Mir		0	18	Medium / Medium	1:40.082	+0.25%	16	Medium
Retired	Jorge Martin		0	4	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Lorenzo Savadori		0	24	Medium / Medium	1:42.231	+2.40%	22	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alex Marquez	56%	1 ✓
2	Maverick Viñales	42%	4
3	Jorge Martin	32%	3
4	Franco Morbidelli	21%	9
5	Luca Marini	18%	2 ✓
6	Andrea Dovizioso	9%	6
7	Remy Gardner	8%	10
8	Enea Bastianini	4%	8
9	Takaaki Nakagami	2%	7
10	Raul Fernandez	3%	14
11	Alex Rins	3%	13
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	2%	5
13	Darryn Binder	1%	12
14	Lorenzo Savadori	0%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Alex Marquez	35%	65%	90%	7
2	Miguel Oliveira	26%	53%	83%	11
3	Joan Mir	15%	49%	79%	2
4	Fabio Quartararo	4%	32%	67%	5
5	Brad Binder	4%	27%	54%	12
6	Marc Marquez	6%	21%	55%	9
7	Pol Espargaro	1%	11%	40%	10
8	Marco Bezzecchi	3%	12%	37%	6
9	Johann Zarco	2%	8%	28%	1
10	Aleix Espargaro	2%	7%	23%	3
11	Jack Miller	3%	11%	28%	4
12	Luca Marini	1%	4%	17%	8

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Raul Fernandez	24	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Johann Zarco	1	29%	58%	72%	82%	17%	2
Joan Mir	2	22%	53%	72%	83%	16%	—
Aleix Espargaro	3	14%	39%	56%	71%	25%	3
Jack Miller	4	11%	35%	53%	71%	25%	—
Fabio Quartararo	5	8%	31%	54%	80%	13%	1
Marco Bezzecchi	6	4%	20%	36%	62%	31%	15
Alex Marquez	7	4%	17%	34%	64%	27%	7
Luca Marini	8	3%	17%	37%	82%	4%	12
Marc Marquez	9	2%	10%	23%	68%	15%	6
Pol Espargaro	10	2%	7%	18%	60%	19%	9
Miguel Oliveira	11	1%	4%	14%	54%	19%	5
Brad Binder	12	1%	4%	10%	48%	15%	—
Jorge Martin	13	0%	2%	6%	35%	30%	—
Maverick Viñales	14	0%	2%	5%	38%	11%	10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	15	0%	1%	3%	26%	21%	—
Andrea Dovizioso	16	0%	1%	3%	23%	12%	11
Takaaki Nakagami	17	0%	0%	2%	16%	13%	16
Enea Bastianini	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	15%	—
Franco Morbidelli	19	0%	0%	0%	8%	17%	13
Remy Gardner	20	0%	0%	1%	7%	11%	14
Lorenzo Savadori	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	29%	—
Darryn Binder	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	11%	17
Alex Rins	23	0%	0%	0%	3%	20%	4
Francesco Bagnaia	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	28%	8
Raul Fernandez	25	0%	0%	0%	1%	11%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Jack Miller +0.32%	Jorge Martin +0.33%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Cal Crutchlow +0.50%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.57%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.13%	Pedro Acosta +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.15%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.52%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Alex Marquez +0.49%	Pedro Acosta +0.63%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.35%	Alex Marquez +0.37%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.16%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.07%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.26%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Pedro Acosta +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.13%	Joan Mir +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Johann Zarco +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Alex Marquez +0.36%
S2	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Aleix Espargaro +0.16%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Brad Binder +0.48%	Alex Rins +0.58%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.55%	Johann Zarco +0.60%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.02%	Jack Miller +0.33%
S2	Jack Miller +0.28%	Joan Mir +0.29%	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.76%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.37%	Alex Marquez +0.55%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Miguel Oliveira +0.08%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.29%
S2	Miguel Oliveira +0.17%	Franco Morbidelli +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S3	Miguel Oliveira +0.01%	Johann Zarco +0.43%	Stefan Bradl +0.46%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.02%	Cal Crutchlow +0.13%	Stefan Bradl +0.28%

Fastest per sector: 2022

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

14/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

61%

Front row on the podium

0.68

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 100% of the time (between 21% and 100%; 1 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2020–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Enea Bastianini	61	—
2	Alex Rins	56	−5
3	Aleix Espargaro	50	−11
4	Joan Mir	46	−15
5	Fabio Quartararo	44	−17
6	Brad Binder	42	−19

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2021 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

17/25

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Quartararo

4.809 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Takaaki Nakagami, from P21 to P10.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Takaaki Nakagami (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2021 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:40.046	—	+0.275	Hard	22
Alex Rins	1:40.130	+0.084	+0.217	Medium	16
Johann Zarco	1:40.133	+0.087	+0.344	Medium	17
Brad Binder	1:40.159	+0.113	+0.327	Hard	21
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.209	+0.163	+0.221	Medium	21
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.212	+0.166	+0.512	Hard	20
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.280	+0.234	+0.209	Medium	22
Joan Mir	1:40.310	+0.264	+0.562	Medium	23
Marc Marquez	1:40.485	+0.439	+0.210	Medium	21
Alex Marquez	1:40.605	+0.559	+0.356	Medium	21

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2024Jorge MartinDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2020Miguel OliveiraKTM
2012Casey StonerHonda
2011Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 23% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	4/22	18%
2023	6/20	30%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	5/21	24%
2020	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

2021 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	62%	+0.56%	−0.026	0	2	7.9
Hard	38%	+0.70%	−0.024	1	1	9.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.