Round 9 of 20 Aftermath

Catalan Grand Prix 2022

4.655 m · 25 laps · since 1991

03.06 – 05.06.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	40:29.360	25
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+6.473	20
3	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+8.385	16
4	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+11.481	13
5	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+14.395	11
6	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+15.430	10
7	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+15.975	9
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+21.436	8
9	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+26.800	7
10	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+30.460	6
11	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+32.443	5
12	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+32.881	4
13	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+33.168	3
14	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+34.693	2
15	Raul Fernandez	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+37.844	1
16	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Aruba.it Racing	+44.533	0
17	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+46.199	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	Out on lap 1	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Aleix Espargaro · 26%	Fabio Quartararo · 16% · from P3	0.66 / 0.66	3.9 / 3.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:40.960	—	+0.275	Medium	22
Johann Zarco	1:41.123	+0.163	+0.344	Hard	22
Aleix Espargaro	1:41.125	+0.165	+0.209	Medium	22
Jorge Martin	1:41.148	+0.188	+0.457	Medium	20
Luca Marini	1:41.383	+0.423	+0.308	Medium	22
Joan Mir	1:41.394	+0.434	+0.562	Medium	22
Enea Bastianini	1:41.399	+0.439	+0.319	Medium	5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:41.546	+0.586	+0.320	Medium	5
Maverick Viñales	1:41.680	+0.720	+0.292	Soft	20
Brad Binder	1:41.694	+0.734	+0.327	Medium	22
Andrea Dovizioso	1:41.808	+0.848	+0.226	Medium	14
Miguel Oliveira	1:41.936	+0.976	+0.193	Medium	21
Franco Morbidelli	1:41.939	+0.979	+0.512	Hard	21
Alex Marquez	1:41.940	+0.980	+0.356	Soft	22
Jack Miller	1:42.055	+1.095	+0.105	Hard	21
Darryn Binder	1:42.256	+1.296	+0.272	Medium	22
Raul Fernandez	1:42.262	+1.302	+0.667	Medium	22
Remy Gardner	1:42.264	+1.304	+1.660	Medium	20
Michele Pirro	1:42.697	+1.737	+0.267	Medium	22
Pol Espargaro	1:42.776	+1.816	+0.406	Hard	21

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

24/24

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Quartararo

6.473 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Marquez, from P25 to P10.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Jorge Martin (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:00:52	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:00:52	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:00:52	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:05	Stefan Bradl	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:05:03	Francesco Bagnaia	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:05:36	Joan Mir	Position penalty	To drop 1 position due to overtaking under yellow flag
Race	14:08:51	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:10:13	Marco Bezzecchi	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:13:22	Enea Bastianini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:14:16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:15:30	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:29:57	Andrea Dovizioso	Retired	Entered pits and retired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Fabio Quartararo (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Joan Mir	17	7	+10
Darryn Binder	23	14	+9
Alex Marquez	25	17	+8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	5	9	−4
Franco Morbidelli	18	21	−3
Jack Miller	11	13	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Joan Mir	17→4	+9.1
Alex Marquez	25→10	+8.2
Darryn Binder	23→12	+5.0
Aleix Espargaro	1→5	−2.2
Jack Miller	11→14	−4.7
Pol Espargaro	10→17	−8.4

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	68%	+0.65%	+0.067	1	2	8.1
Hard	23%	+0.97%	+0.085	0	1	11.8
Soft	9%	+0.84%	+0.063	0	0	8.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

26.8 °C

Air

max 27.2 °C

49%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

15 km/h

Wind

gusts 37 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 03.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Rins	01:40.101	—	20	349.5	Medium / Medium	1:41.955	+0.90%	5	Hard
2	Maverick Viñales	01:40.296	+0.195	19	348.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.695	+0.594	19	341.7	Soft / Medium	1:41.045	—	7	Medium
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.708	+0.607	18	348.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.104	+0.06%	6	Medium
5	Pol Espargaro	01:40.733	+0.632	20	347.2	Soft / Medium	1:41.694	+0.64%	6	Medium
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.868	+0.767	20	343.9	Soft / Medium	1:41.220	+0.17%	10	Medium
7	Alex Marquez	01:40.872	+0.771	21	348.3	Medium / Medium	1:42.603	+1.54%	11	Hard
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.901	+0.800	18	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:41.294	+0.25%	4	Medium
9	Joan Mir	01:40.907	+0.806	15	348.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
10	Enea Bastianini	01:41.031	+0.930	17	347.2	Soft / Medium	1:41.918	+0.86%	7	Medium
11	Johann Zarco	01:41.049	+0.948	20	348.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.376	+0.33%	5	Medium
12	Raul Fernandez	01:41.083	+0.982	18	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:41.104	+1.003	22	342.8	Soft / Medium	1:41.597	+0.55%	13	Medium
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.105	+1.004	18	348.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.386	+0.34%	6	Medium
15	Brad Binder	01:41.157	+1.056	21	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:41.464	+0.42%	12	Medium
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:41.214	+1.113	18	347.2	Soft / Medium	1:41.555	+0.51%	12	Medium
17	Luca Marini	01:41.243	+1.142	20	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:41.926	+0.87%	7	Medium
18	Jack Miller	01:41.280	+1.179	20	347.2	Soft / Medium	1:41.918	+0.86%	14	Medium
19	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:41.313	+1.212	16	342.8	Soft / Medium	1:41.792	+0.74%	6	Medium
20	Jorge Martin	01:41.320	+1.219	17	343.9	Soft / Medium	1:41.410	+0.36%	6	Medium
21	Remy Gardner	01:41.330	+1.229	19	342.8	Medium / Soft	1:42.660	+1.60%	6	Medium
22	Andrea Dovizioso	01:41.458	+1.357	19	340.6	Soft / Medium	1:42.137	+1.08%	10	Medium
23	Stefan Bradl	01:41.882	+1.781	18	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:42.334	+1.28%	10	Medium
24	Darryn Binder	01:41.934	+1.833	20	337.5	Soft / Medium	1:42.810	+1.75%	5	Medium
25	Michele Pirro	01:41.980	+1.879	17	341.7	Soft / Medium	1:42.764	+1.70%	4	Medium

FP2 · 03.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.402	—	19	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.856	+0.13%	12	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:39.705	+0.303	19	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Enea Bastianini	01:39.890	+0.488	18	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:41.276	+0.54%	4	Hard
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.950	+0.548	19	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:41.384	+0.65%	5	Hard
5	Jorge Martin	01:39.989	+0.587	18	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Brad Binder	01:40.083	+0.681	19	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:40.975	+0.25%	4	Medium
7	Jack Miller	01:40.095	+0.693	21	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:41.434	+0.70%	6	Medium
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.123	+0.721	18	343.9	Medium / Soft	1:41.030	+0.30%	7	Medium
9	Alex Rins	01:40.126	+0.724	20	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:41.618	+0.88%	7	Medium
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.204	+0.802	20	340.6	Soft / Soft	1:41.551	+0.82%	13	Hard
11	Pol Espargaro	01:40.237	+0.835	18	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:41.070	+0.34%	5	Medium
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.256	+0.854	19	341.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:40.346	+0.944	16	342.8	Medium / Soft	1:41.268	+0.54%	5	Hard
14	Marco Bezzecchi	01:40.428	+1.026	18	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:40.728	—	5	Medium
15	Luca Marini	01:40.448	+1.046	18	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Joan Mir	01:40.650	+1.248	19	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Johann Zarco	01:40.752	+1.350	19	348.3	Medium / Hard	1:41.338	+0.61%	11	Hard
18	Alex Marquez	01:40.785	+1.383	19	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:42.054	+1.32%	10	Medium
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.821	+1.419	20	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:41.377	+0.64%	5	Medium
20	Darryn Binder	01:40.871	+1.469	19	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:42.039	+1.30%	5	Medium
21	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.943	+1.541	20	341.7	Medium / Soft	1:42.318	+1.58%	11	Hard
22	Michele Pirro	01:41.051	+1.649	16	340.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Stefan Bradl	01:41.074	+1.672	15	345.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
24	Raul Fernandez	01:42.074	+2.672	18	341.7	Hard / Medium	—			—
25	Remy Gardner	01:42.286	+2.884	18	339.6	Hard / Hard	—			—

FP3 · 04.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.771	—	15	348.3	Medium / Soft	1:41.230	+1.29%	6	Medium
2	Johann Zarco	01:38.902	+0.131	20	350.6	Medium / Soft	1:40.663	+0.73%	6	Medium
3	Jorge Martin	01:39.005	+0.234	18	348.3	Medium / Soft	1:40.454	+0.52%	5	Medium
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.007	+0.236	20	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Jack Miller	01:39.074	+0.303	20	349.5	Soft / Soft	1:40.715	+0.78%	11	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.088	+0.317	21	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:39.937	—	10	Medium
7	Luca Marini	01:39.233	+0.462	17	350.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Pol Espargaro	01:39.246	+0.475	16	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Alex Rins	01:39.260	+0.489	20	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:39.413	+0.642	18	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Maverick Viñales	01:39.423	+0.652	16	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Enea Bastianini	01:39.439	+0.668	17	352.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Joan Mir	01:39.505	+0.734	22	351.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Marco Bezzecchi	01:39.540	+0.769	19	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.534	+0.60%	5	Medium
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.577	+0.806	22	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.527	+0.59%	9	Medium
16	Brad Binder	01:39.609	+0.838	16	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.665	+0.894	19	343.9	Medium / Soft	1:40.086	+0.15%	5	Medium
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.856	+1.085	20	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Alex Marquez	01:39.903	+1.132	19	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.907	+1.136	18	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Michele Pirro	01:40.008	+1.237	17	345.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Darryn Binder	01:40.083	+1.312	19	342.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
23	Remy Gardner	01:40.213	+1.442	16	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:41.154	+1.22%	5	Medium
24	Raul Fernandez	01:40.292	+1.521	19	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:41.407	+1.47%	5	Medium
25	Stefan Bradl	01:40.409	+1.638	20	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 04.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.992	—	18	348.3	Medium / Medium	1:40.507	+0.19%	14	Medium
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:40.149	+0.157	11	348.3	Medium / Hard	1:40.412	+0.09%	8	Hard
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.192	+0.200	14	343.9	Medium / Hard	1:40.461	+0.14%	6	Hard
4	Johann Zarco	01:40.236	+0.244	16	349.5	Medium / Hard	1:40.321	—	7	Hard
5	Luca Marini	01:40.400	+0.408	16	347.2	Medium / Medium	1:40.672	+0.35%	10	Hard
6	Maverick Viñales	01:40.465	+0.473	15	348.3	Medium / Soft	1:41.204	+0.88%	11	Soft
7	Jorge Martin	01:40.474	+0.482	15	346.1	missing / missing	1:40.966	+0.64%	5	missing
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.485	+0.493	16	345.0	Medium / Hard	1:40.785	+0.46%	8	Hard
9	Enea Bastianini	01:40.506	+0.514	13	350.6	Medium / Medium	1:40.962	+0.64%	6	Hard
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.551	+0.559	15	350.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
11	Joan Mir	01:40.572	+0.580	14	352.9	Medium / Hard	—			—
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.651	+0.659	15	345.0	Hard / Hard	1:40.868	+0.55%	7	Hard
13	Alex Rins	01:40.721	+0.729	14	347.2	Medium / Hard	1:41.069	+0.75%	5	Hard
14	Pol Espargaro	01:40.780	+0.788	13	345.0	Medium / Hard	1:41.387	+1.06%	6	Hard
15	Jack Miller	01:40.827	+0.835	18	350.6	Hard / Hard	1:41.455	+1.13%	15	Hard
16	Darryn Binder	01:40.832	+0.840	14	341.7	Medium / Hard	1:41.434	+1.11%	8	Hard
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.898	+0.906	16	342.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Brad Binder	01:40.933	+0.941	10	348.3	Hard / Hard	—			—
19	Alex Marquez	01:40.965	+0.973	10	347.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.976	+0.984	15	343.9	Medium / Hard	1:41.076	+0.75%	5	Hard
21	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:40.977	+0.985	14	346.1	Medium / Medium	1:41.205	+0.88%	5	Medium
22	Remy Gardner	01:41.221	+1.229	14	347.2	Hard / Hard	1:41.360	+1.04%	5	Hard
23	Stefan Bradl	01:41.304	+1.312	14	345.0	Medium / Hard	—			—
24	Raul Fernandez	01:41.530	+1.538	14	346.1	Hard / Hard	1:41.725	+1.40%	6	Hard
25	Michele Pirro	01:41.609	+1.617	11	343.9	Medium / Medium	1:41.950	+1.62%	8	Medium

Q1 · 04.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Maverick Viñales	01:39.216	—	7	350.6	Medium / Soft
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.223	+0.007	7	346.1	Medium / Soft
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:39.240	+0.024	7	346.1	Medium / Soft
4	Enea Bastianini	01:39.246	+0.030	8	349.5	Medium / Soft
5	Brad Binder	01:39.249	+0.033	7	347.2	Medium / Soft
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.420	+0.204	8	343.9	Medium / Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:39.664	+0.448	9	352.9	Medium / Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.884	+0.668	8	345.0	Medium / Soft
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.071	+0.855	8	342.8	Medium / Soft
10	Remy Gardner	01:40.113	+0.897	7	343.9	Medium / Soft
11	Stefan Bradl	01:40.298	+1.082	7	347.2	Medium / Soft
12	Michele Pirro	01:40.351	+1.135	7	345.0	Medium / Soft
13	Darryn Binder	01:40.373	+1.157	7	345.0	Medium / Soft
14	Raul Fernandez	01:40.587	+1.371	7	346.1	Medium / Soft
Retired	Alex Marquez		—	0	0.0	— / —

Q2 · 04.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.742	—	7	351.7	Medium / Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.773	+0.031	8	348.3	Medium / Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.959	+0.217	7	347.2	Medium / Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:39.027	+0.285	7	349.5	Medium / Soft
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:39.099	+0.357	7	348.3	Medium / Soft
6	Jorge Martin	01:39.142	+0.400	6	348.3	Medium / Soft
7	Alex Rins	01:39.145	+0.403	7	350.6	Medium / Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	01:39.397	+0.655	7	349.5	Medium / Soft
9	Luca Marini	01:39.451	+0.709	8	346.1	Medium / Soft
10	Pol Espargaro	01:39.477	+0.735	7	352.9	Medium / Soft
11	Jack Miller	01:39.523	+0.781	8	350.6	Medium / Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.611	+0.869	6	343.9	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 05.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:40.135	—	11	348.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
2	Enea Bastianini	01:40.141	+0.006	12	351.7	Medium / Medium	1:40.504	—	8	Medium
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:40.248	+0.113	12	346.1	Medium / Medium	1:40.653	+0.15%	5	Medium
4	Alex Rins	01:40.361	+0.226	10	347.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.367	+0.232	10	348.3	Medium / Soft	1:40.643	+0.14%	8	Soft
6	Brad Binder	01:40.450	+0.315	12	347.2	Medium / Hard	1:40.569	+0.07%	9	Hard
7	Joan Mir	01:40.488	+0.353	10	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.564	+0.429	11	342.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.585	+0.450	12	349.5	Medium / Medium	1:40.850	+0.34%	7	Medium
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.589	+0.454	12	342.8	Medium / Medium	1:41.075	+0.57%	7	Medium
11	Alex Marquez	01:40.698	+0.563	12	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Johann Zarco	01:40.710	+0.575	12	348.3	Medium / Hard	1:40.954	+0.45%	10	Hard
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.745	+0.610	10	345.0	Medium / Medium	1:41.007	+0.50%	6	Medium
14	Jorge Martin	01:40.746	+0.611	10	348.3	Medium / Medium	1:41.067	+0.56%	5	Medium
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.761	+0.626	11	343.9	Soft / Medium	1:40.854	+0.35%	5	Medium
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:40.800	+0.665	12	349.5	Medium / Hard	1:40.971	+0.47%	5	Hard
17	Pol Espargaro	01:40.804	+0.669	12	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:40.986	+0.48%	8	Soft
18	Luca Marini	01:40.890	+0.755	12	346.1	Medium / Medium	1:41.116	+0.61%	10	Medium
19	Stefan Bradl	01:40.900	+0.765	12	347.2	Soft / Medium	1:41.190	+0.68%	6	Medium
20	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.316	+1.181	11	350.6	Medium / Hard	1:41.661	+1.15%	5	Hard
21	Jack Miller	01:41.434	+1.299	12	348.3	Medium / Medium	1:41.936	+1.43%	9	Medium
22	Michele Pirro	01:41.482	+1.347	6	341.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
23	Raul Fernandez	01:41.729	+1.594	10	346.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
24	Remy Gardner	01:41.798	+1.663	12	345.0	Medium / Medium	1:42.548	+2.03%	6	Medium
25	Darryn Binder	01:41.807	+1.672	10	342.8	Medium / Medium	—			—

Race · 05.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	40:29.360	25	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.960	—	22	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	+6.473	20	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.148	+0.19%	20	Medium
3	Johann Zarco	+8.385	16	24	Medium / Hard	1:41.123	+0.16%	22	Hard
4	Joan Mir	+11.481	13	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.394	+0.43%	22	Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	+14.395	11	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.125	+0.16%	22	Medium
6	Luca Marini	+15.430	10	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.383	+0.42%	22	Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	+15.975	9	24	Medium / Soft	1:41.680	+0.71%	20	Soft
8	Brad Binder	+21.436	8	24	Hard / Medium	1:41.694	+0.73%	22	Medium
9	Miguel Oliveira	+26.800	7	24	Hard / Medium	1:41.936	+0.97%	21	Medium
10	Alex Marquez	+30.460	6	24	Medium / Soft	1:41.940	+0.97%	22	Soft
11	Remy Gardner	+32.443	5	24	Hard / Medium	1:42.264	+1.29%	20	Medium
12	Darryn Binder	+32.881	4	24	Medium / Medium	1:42.256	+1.28%	22	Medium
13	Franco Morbidelli	+33.168	3	24	Medium / Hard	1:41.939	+0.97%	21	Hard
14	Jack Miller	+34.693	2	24	Medium / Hard	1:42.055	+1.09%	21	Hard
15	Raul Fernandez	+37.844	1	24	Hard / Medium	1:42.262	+1.29%	22	Medium
16	Michele Pirro	+44.533	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:42.697	+1.72%	22	Medium
17	Pol Espargaro	+46.199	0	24	Medium / Hard	1:42.776	+1.80%	21	Hard
Out on lap 1	Alex Rins		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Andrea Dovizioso		0	17	Medium / Medium	1:41.808	+0.84%	14	Medium
Retired	Enea Bastianini		0	7	Medium / Medium	1:41.399	+0.44%	5	Medium
Retired	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	8	Medium / Medium	1:41.546	+0.58%	5	Medium
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	1	— / —	—			—
Retired	Marco Bezzecchi		0	5	Medium / Hard	—			—
Out on lap 1	Stefan Bradl		0	0	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Takaaki Nakagami		0	0	— / —	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:39.935	—	+0.275	Medium	9
Johann Zarco	1:40.306*	+0.371	+0.344	Medium	4
Maverick Viñales	1:40.413	+0.478	+0.292	Medium	5
Enea Bastianini	1:40.426	+0.491	+0.319	Medium	10
Jorge Martin	1:40.454	+0.519	+0.457	Medium	5
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.465	+0.530	+0.209	Medium	18
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:40.510	+0.575	+0.320	Medium	9
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.519	+0.584	+0.221	Medium	7
Joan Mir	1:40.530*	+0.595	+0.562	Medium	4
Marco Bezzecchi	1:40.534	+0.599	+0.553	Medium	5
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.810	+0.875	+0.512	Medium	6
Andrea Dovizioso	1:40.970	+1.035	+0.226	Medium	6
Luca Marini	1:41.172	+1.237	+0.308	Medium	14
Takaaki Nakagami	1:41.226	+1.291	+0.359	Medium	7
Alex Marquez	1:41.373*	+1.438	+0.356	Medium	4
Jack Miller	1:41.444	+1.509	+0.105	Medium	15
Stefan Bradl	1:41.604*	+1.669	+0.530	Medium	3
Alex Rins	1:41.629	+1.694	+0.217	Medium	10
Michele Pirro	1:41.846	+1.911	+0.267	Medium	7
Darryn Binder	1:42.042*	+2.107	+0.272	Medium	4
Remy Gardner	1:42.155*	+2.220	+1.660	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Maverick Viñales	56%	1 ✓
2	Enea Bastianini	42%	4
3	Joan Mir	33%	7
4	Marco Bezzecchi	21%	3
5	Franco Morbidelli	18%	8
6	Brad Binder	9%	5
7	Takaaki Nakagami	8%	2 ✓
8	Miguel Oliveira	4%	6
9	Andrea Dovizioso	2%	9
10	Michele Pirro	3%	12
11	Darryn Binder	4%	13
12	Remy Gardner	2%	10
13	Raul Fernandez	1%	14
14	Stefan Bradl	0%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Aleix Espargaro	35%	65%	89%	1
2	Johann Zarco	25%	52%	83%	4
3	Jorge Martin	15%	49%	79%	6
4	Francesco Bagnaia	4%	31%	68%	2
5	Jack Miller	4%	27%	53%	11
6	Fabio Quartararo	5%	21%	54%	3
7	Luca Marini	1%	11%	40%	9
8	Pol Espargaro	2%	11%	37%	10
9	Alex Rins	2%	8%	28%	7
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	2%	8%	25%	5
11	Maverick Viñales	3%	11%	29%	8
12	Takaaki Nakagami	1%	4%	18%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Aleix Espargaro	1	26%	52%	64%	74%	25%	5
Francesco Bagnaia	2	19%	45%	59%	71%	28%	—
Fabio Quartararo	3	16%	49%	68%	84%	13%	1
Johann Zarco	4	12%	38%	56%	78%	18%	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	5	8%	28%	48%	72%	23%	—
Jorge Martin	6	4%	20%	38%	62%	33%	2
Alex Rins	7	5%	18%	37%	69%	21%	—
Maverick Viñales	8	3%	16%	36%	77%	11%	7
Luca Marini	9	2%	10%	28%	77%	4%	6
Pol Espargaro	10	2%	7%	17%	59%	20%	17
Jack Miller	11	1%	5%	13%	48%	25%	14
Takaaki Nakagami	12	1%	4%	10%	51%	13%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	13	1%	3%	8%	39%	23%	—
Enea Bastianini	14	0%	2%	6%	35%	19%	—
Brad Binder	15	0%	1%	4%	29%	16%	8
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	1%	3%	22%	20%	9
Joan Mir	17	0%	1%	2%	16%	19%	4
Franco Morbidelli	18	0%	1%	1%	11%	16%	13
Andrea Dovizioso	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	12%	—
Remy Gardner	20	0%	0%	1%	7%	15%	11
Stefan Bradl	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	19%	—
Michele Pirro	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	20%	16
Darryn Binder	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	15%	12
Raul Fernandez	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	18%	15
Alex Marquez	25	0%	0%	0%	1%	24%	10

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,669 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%	Pedro Acosta +0.44%	Aleix Espargaro +0.46%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.36%	Brad Binder +0.45%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.46%	Fabio Quartararo +0.47%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Francesco Bagnaia +0.53%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.78%
S2	Alex Marquez	Joan Mir +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.43%
S4	Joan Mir +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.21%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.45%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Johann Zarco +0.31%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Pedro Acosta +0.51%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.30%	Marc Marquez +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.03%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.37%	Brad Binder +0.41%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.12%	Brad Binder +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.13%
S4	Raul Fernandez	Aleix Espargaro +0.25%	Brad Binder +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.01%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.14%	Brad Binder +0.27%
S2	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S3	Miguel Oliveira +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.19%	Enea Bastianini +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.44%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.42%
S3	Alex Rins +0.21%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.36%	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%	Jorge Martin +0.57%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Johann Zarco	Miguel Oliveira +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.40%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Fabio Quartararo +0.07%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.38%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Jack Miller +0.41%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.34%
S3	Valentino Rossi +0.22%	Pol Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Valentino Rossi +0.16%	Brad Binder +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Joan Mir +0.33%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.18%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Alex Rins +0.35%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Valentino Rossi +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.19%
S2	Jorge Lorenzo +0.15%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%	Maverick Viñales +0.20%
S3	Andrea Iannone	Jorge Lorenzo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.12%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Johann Zarco +0.19%

Fastest per sector: 2022

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

52/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 86% of the time (between 49% and 97%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	122	—
2	Aleix Espargaro	114	−8
3	Enea Bastianini	94	−28
4	Francesco Bagnaia	81	−41
5	Johann Zarco	75	−47
6	Alex Rins	69	−53

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2021 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

21/24

Laps led by the winner

Miguel Oliveira

0.175 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Marquez, from P20 to P11.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Francesco Bagnaia (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2021 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:40.614	—	+0.210	Medium	5
Fabio Quartararo	1:40.614	—	+0.275	Hard	20
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.640	+0.026	+0.209	Soft	8
Johann Zarco	1:40.665	+0.051	+0.344	Hard	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:40.686	+0.072	+0.193	Hard	22
Maverick Viñales	1:40.781	+0.167	+0.292	Medium	20
Jack Miller	1:40.816	+0.202	+0.105	Hard	22
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.829	+0.215	+0.221	Medium	21
Joan Mir	1:40.900	+0.286	+0.562	Medium	21
Brad Binder	1:40.904	+0.290	+0.327	Hard	22

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Miguel OliveiraKTM
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 25% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/22	23%
2025	7/24	29%
2024	3/23	13%
2023	3/20	15%
2022	8/25	32%
2021	6/21	29%

Tyres at the last edition

2021 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	48%	+0.31%	+0.032	1	3	6.3
Medium	43%	+0.51%	+0.055	0	0	9.3
Soft	10%	+0.36%	−0.001	0	0	11.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.