MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 3 of 20 Aftermath

Argentine Grand Prix 2022

Termas de Río Hondo Argentina

4.805 m · 25 laps · since 2014
01.04 – 03.04.2022
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing41:36.19825
2Jorge MartinDucatiPramac Racing+0.80720
3Alex RinsSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+1.33016
4Joan MirSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+1.83113
5Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+5.84011
6Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+6.19210
7Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing+6.5409
8Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+10.2158
9Marco BezzecchiDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+12.6227
10Enea BastianiniDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+12.9876
11Luca MariniDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+13.9625
12Takaaki NakagamiHondaLCR Honda IDEMITSU+14.0024
13Miguel OliveiraKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+14.4563
14Jack MillerDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+14.8982
15Alex MarquezHondaLCR Honda CASTROL+23.4721
16Raul FernandezKTMTech3 KTM Factory Racing+25.8620
17Remy GardnerKTMTech3 KTM Factory Racing+28.7110
18Darryn BinderYamahaWithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team+28.7840
19Stefan BradlHondaRepsol Honda Team+31.9430
20Andrea DoviziosoYamahaWithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team+0.0000
DNFFabio Di GiannantonioDucatiGresini Racing MotoGPRetired0
DNFFranco MorbidelliYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGPRetired0
DNFJohann ZarcoDucatiPramac RacingRetired0
DNFPol EspargaroHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Aleix Espargaro · 26% ✓Aleix Espargaro · 26% · from P10.84 / 0.842.5 / 2.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Aleix Espargaro1:39.667—+0.209Soft23
Jorge Martin1:39.677+0.010+0.457Soft23
Alex Rins1:39.685+0.018+0.217Soft23
Pol Espargaro1:39.709+0.042+0.406Soft12
Joan Mir1:39.710+0.043+0.562Soft23
Francesco Bagnaia1:39.802+0.135+0.221Soft23
Brad Binder1:39.856+0.189+0.327Soft23
Maverick Viñales1:39.887+0.220+0.292Soft22
Marco Bezzecchi1:39.912+0.245+0.553Soft23
Fabio Quartararo1:40.014+0.347+0.275Soft23
Enea Bastianini1:40.023+0.356+0.319Soft23
Luca Marini1:40.164+0.497+0.308Soft23
Takaaki Nakagami1:40.175+0.508+0.359Soft23
Miguel Oliveira1:40.176+0.509+0.193Soft23
Jack Miller1:40.216+0.549+0.105Soft23
Alex Marquez1:40.436+0.769+0.356Soft23
Andrea Dovizioso1:40.466+0.799+0.226Soft17
Raul Fernandez1:40.481+0.814+0.667Soft23
Darryn Binder1:40.616+0.949+0.272Soft23
Remy Gardner1:40.702+1.035+1.660Soft22
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:40.720+1.053+0.320Soft20
Stefan Bradl1:40.754+1.087+0.530Soft23
Franco Morbidelli1:40.901+1.234+0.512Soft5

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

70
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
5/25
Laps led by the winner
Aleix Espargaro
0.807 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marco Bezzecchi, from P17 to P9.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Francesco Bagnaia (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race15:09:27Johann ZarcoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:12:50Franco MorbidelliRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race15:24:20Pol EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:39:26Fabio Di GiannantonioCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
RaceSanctionFIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #43

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Soft100%+0.50%−0.0091310.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
26.4 °C
Air
max 26.9 °C
34%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
7 km/h
Wind
gusts 21 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 02.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Takaaki Nakagami01:39.028—25335.3Hard / Soft1:41.112+0.90%12Medium
2Fabio Quartararo01:39.155+0.12728330.9Hard / Soft1:40.549+0.34%17Medium
3Pol Espargaro01:39.223+0.19524332.7Soft / Soft1:41.246+1.04%12Medium
4Aleix Espargaro01:39.224+0.19619336.2Hard / Medium1:40.610+0.40%10Medium
5Marco Bezzecchi01:39.230+0.20221338.1Hard / Soft1:41.192+0.98%12Medium
6Alex Rins01:39.274+0.24626337.1Hard / Soft1:40.986+0.78%10Medium
7Miguel Oliveira01:39.318+0.29026329.2Hard / Soft1:41.018+0.81%18Medium
8Maverick Viñales01:39.396+0.36823336.2Hard / Medium1:40.208—7Medium
9Brad Binder01:39.425+0.39726336.2Hard / Soft1:41.404+1.19%16Medium
10Joan Mir01:39.427+0.39926335.3Hard / Soft1:41.093+0.88%15Medium
11Enea Bastianini01:39.589+0.56119336.2Soft / Soft1:41.612+1.40%11Medium
12Francesco Bagnaia01:39.622+0.59425334.4Hard / Medium1:41.367+1.16%15Medium
13Remy Gardner01:39.704+0.67622332.7Hard / Soft1:41.851+1.64%12Medium
14Alex Marquez01:39.756+0.72827334.4Hard / Soft1:41.134+0.92%11Medium
15Johann Zarco01:39.802+0.77427336.2Hard / Medium1:41.550+1.34%14Medium
16Luca Marini01:39.830+0.80220334.4Hard / Soft1:41.909+1.70%6Medium
17Jack Miller01:39.899+0.87121335.3Hard / Medium——
18Franco Morbidelli01:39.960+0.93227330.0Hard / Soft1:41.265+1.06%11Medium
19Fabio Di Giannantonio01:40.004+0.97620335.3Hard / Soft1:42.137+1.93%6Medium
20Jorge Martin01:40.182+1.15424333.6Hard / Medium1:40.975+0.77%15Medium
21Darryn Binder01:40.293+1.26523333.6Hard / Soft1:43.872+3.66%6Medium
22Stefan Bradl01:40.346+1.31823334.4Soft / Soft1:41.466+1.26%12Medium
23Raul Fernandez01:40.474+1.44626330.0Hard / Soft1:42.337+2.13%14Medium
24Andrea Dovizioso01:40.721+1.69326330.9Soft / Medium1:42.238+2.03%16Medium
FP2 · 02.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Aleix Espargaro01:38.244—18335.3— / ———
2Maverick Viñales01:38.454+0.21021339.9Hard / Soft——
3Jack Miller01:38.463+0.21922337.1Soft / Soft1:40.310+0.66%5Soft
4Fabio Quartararo01:38.471+0.22726330.9— / ———
5Brad Binder01:38.548+0.30422336.2Hard / Soft——
6Alex Rins01:38.619+0.37527337.1Medium / Soft1:39.830+0.18%15Soft
7Joan Mir01:38.626+0.38223336.2— / ———
8Jorge Martin01:38.704+0.46023336.2Hard / Soft1:39.648—5Soft
9Johann Zarco01:38.797+0.55325341.8Hard / Soft1:40.186+0.54%6Soft
10Luca Marini01:38.915+0.67124336.2— / ———
11Miguel Oliveira01:38.924+0.68025333.6Hard / Soft1:40.166+0.52%12Soft
12Francesco Bagnaia01:38.943+0.69923335.3Hard / Soft1:39.912+0.27%10Soft
13Takaaki Nakagami01:38.951+0.70724336.2— / ———
14Franco Morbidelli01:38.959+0.71523331.8Hard / Soft——
15Marco Bezzecchi01:38.973+0.72921342.7Hard / Soft——
16Enea Bastianini01:38.985+0.74120338.1— / ———
17Pol Espargaro01:39.178+0.93421336.2Hard / Soft——
18Remy Gardner01:39.503+1.25917333.6Soft / Soft——
19Alex Marquez01:39.553+1.30924335.3Hard / Soft——
20Raul Fernandez01:39.600+1.35622332.7Hard / Soft——
21Andrea Dovizioso01:39.749+1.50525331.8Hard / Soft1:42.617+2.98%10Soft
22Stefan Bradl01:39.940+1.69625330.9Hard / Soft1:40.753+1.11%5Soft
23Fabio Di Giannantonio01:40.040+1.79620336.2Hard / Soft——
24Darryn Binder01:40.078+1.83417334.4Hard / Soft——
Q1 · 02.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Pol Espargaro01:38.501—7331.8Hard / Soft
2Takaaki Nakagami01:38.523+0.0228334.4Hard / Soft
3Enea Bastianini01:38.566+0.0658339.9Hard / Soft
4Francesco Bagnaia01:38.610+0.1097332.7Hard / Soft
5Franco Morbidelli01:38.805+0.3048328.3Hard / Soft
6Miguel Oliveira01:38.871+0.3708329.2Hard / Soft
7Marco Bezzecchi01:38.877+0.3768335.3Hard / Soft
8Andrea Dovizioso01:38.938+0.4378330.9Hard / Soft
9Alex Marquez01:39.095+0.5948333.6Hard / Soft
10Fabio Di Giannantonio01:39.126+0.6258332.7Hard / Soft
11Raul Fernandez01:39.153+0.6527333.6Hard / Soft
12Remy Gardner01:39.159+0.6587331.8Soft / Soft
13Darryn Binder01:39.380+0.8797334.4Hard / Soft
14Stefan Bradl01:39.487+0.9867334.4Hard / Soft
Q2 · 02.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Aleix Espargaro01:37.688—6334.4Hard / Soft
2Jorge Martin01:37.839+0.1516334.4Hard / Soft
3Luca Marini01:38.119+0.4317330.9Hard / Soft
4Pol Espargaro01:38.165+0.4773333.6Hard / Soft
5Maverick Viñales01:38.196+0.5087337.1Hard / Soft
6Fabio Quartararo01:38.281+0.5937332.7Hard / Soft
7Alex Rins01:38.455+0.7678337.1Hard / Soft
8Joan Mir01:38.516+0.8287336.2Hard / Soft
9Johann Zarco01:38.537+0.8498336.2Hard / Soft
10Takaaki Nakagami01:38.576+0.8887333.6Hard / Soft
11Jack Miller01:38.584+0.8965337.1Soft / Soft
12Brad Binder01:38.932+1.2448334.4Hard / Soft
Warm Up · 03.04 partly wet
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Aleix Espargaro01:38.648—15341.8Hard / Soft1:38.920—6Soft
2Fabio Quartararo01:38.892+0.24421337.1Soft / Soft1:39.316+0.40%16Soft
3Alex Rins01:38.912+0.26418340.8Hard / Soft——
4Jorge Martin01:38.933+0.28517340.8Hard / Soft1:39.163+0.25%6Soft
5Maverick Viñales01:38.939+0.29119339.0Hard / Soft1:39.364+0.45%10Soft
6Francesco Bagnaia01:38.954+0.30619342.7Hard / Soft1:39.433+0.52%13Soft
7Miguel Oliveira01:39.042+0.39421337.1Soft / Soft1:39.564+0.65%17Soft
8Brad Binder01:39.046+0.39818336.2Soft / Soft1:39.236+0.32%13Soft
9Takaaki Nakagami01:39.073+0.42520340.8Soft / Soft1:39.708+0.80%14Soft
10Johann Zarco01:39.085+0.43719344.6Hard / Soft1:39.587+0.67%15Soft
11Joan Mir01:39.172+0.52420339.0Hard / Soft1:39.540+0.63%15Soft
12Enea Bastianini01:39.184+0.53617344.6Hard / Soft1:39.603+0.69%7Soft
13Pol Espargaro01:39.237+0.58917338.1Soft / Soft——
14Franco Morbidelli01:39.240+0.59219336.2Hard / Soft1:39.615+0.70%14Soft
15Darryn Binder01:39.335+0.68716339.9Hard / Soft1:40.802+1.90%8Soft
16Marco Bezzecchi01:39.437+0.78912341.8Soft / Soft1:40.164+1.26%5Medium
17Jack Miller01:39.518+0.87022341.8Soft / Soft1:40.116+1.21%12Soft
18Alex Marquez01:39.524+0.87622339.9Hard / Soft1:39.708+0.80%17Soft
19Raul Fernandez01:39.661+1.01319335.3Hard / Soft1:39.956+1.05%13Soft
20Remy Gardner01:39.706+1.05818339.9Hard / Soft1:40.095+1.19%12Soft
21Andrea Dovizioso01:39.746+1.09820338.1Hard / Soft1:40.688+1.79%15Soft
22Fabio Di Giannantonio01:39.779+1.13118341.8Hard / Soft1:39.849+0.94%5Soft
23Luca Marini01:39.792+1.14421341.8Hard / Soft1:40.028+1.12%7Soft
24Stefan Bradl01:39.802+1.15418339.9Soft / Soft1:40.577+1.68%12Soft
Race · 03.04
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Aleix Espargaro41:36.1982525Hard / Soft1:39.667—23Soft
2Jorge Martin+0.8072025Hard / Soft1:39.677+0.01%23Soft
3Alex Rins+1.3301625Hard / Soft1:39.685+0.02%23Soft
4Joan Mir+1.8311325Hard / Soft1:39.710+0.04%23Soft
5Francesco Bagnaia+5.8401125Hard / Soft1:39.802+0.14%23Soft
6Brad Binder+6.1921025Hard / Soft1:39.856+0.19%23Soft
7Maverick Viñales+6.540925Hard / Soft1:39.887+0.22%22Soft
8Fabio Quartararo+10.215825Hard / Soft1:40.014+0.35%23Soft
9Marco Bezzecchi+12.622725Hard / Soft1:39.912+0.25%23Soft
10Enea Bastianini+12.987625Hard / Soft1:40.023+0.36%23Soft
11Luca Marini+13.962525Hard / Soft1:40.164+0.50%23Soft
12Takaaki Nakagami+14.002425Hard / Soft1:40.175+0.51%23Soft
13Miguel Oliveira+14.456325Hard / Soft1:40.176+0.51%23Soft
14Jack Miller+14.898225Hard / Soft1:40.216+0.55%23Soft
15Alex Marquez+23.472125Hard / Soft1:40.436+0.77%23Soft
16Raul Fernandez+25.862025Hard / Soft1:40.481+0.82%23Soft
17Remy Gardner+28.711025Hard / Soft1:40.702+1.04%22Soft
18Darryn Binder+28.784025Hard / Soft1:40.616+0.95%23Soft
19Stefan Bradl+31.943025Hard / Soft1:40.754+1.09%23Soft
20Andrea Dovizioso+0.000022Hard / Soft1:40.466+0.80%17Soft
RetiredFabio Di Giannantonio022Hard / Soft1:40.720+1.06%20Soft
RetiredFranco Morbidelli07Hard / Soft1:40.901+1.24%5Soft
RetiredJohann Zarco05Hard / Soft——
RetiredPol Espargaro014Hard / Soft1:39.709+0.04%12Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a
Pred.RiderP(through)Actual in Q1
1Miguel Oliveira56%6
2Franco Morbidelli42%5
3Marco Bezzecchi33%7
4Takaaki Nakagami21%2 ✓
5Pol Espargaro17%1 ✓
6Francesco Bagnaia9%4
7Remy Gardner8%12
8Enea Bastianini4%3
9Andrea Dovizioso2%8
10Alex Marquez3%9
11Fabio Di Giannantonio3%10
12Darryn Binder2%13
13Stefan Bradl1%14
14Raul Fernandez0%11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Grid penalties

SessionRiderQualifiedStartsΔReason
RaceJack Miller1114+3FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #43

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Aleix Espargaro126%52%64%73%26%1
Jorge Martin218%41%54%65%33%2
Luca Marini318%52%73%92%4%11
Pol Espargaro412%36%56%78%19%—
Maverick Viñales58%33%57%84%11%7
Fabio Quartararo66%26%45%79%14%8
Alex Rins73%17%35%71%21%3
Joan Mir83%14%32%70%16%4
Johann Zarco92%9%23%65%17%—
Takaaki Nakagami101%7%18%62%14%12
Brad Binder111%4%12%54%15%6
Enea Bastianini121%3%10%49%16%10
Francesco Bagnaia130%2%6%34%29%5
Jack Miller140%1%5%29%26%14
Franco Morbidelli150%1%3%27%16%—
Miguel Oliveira160%1%2%21%20%13
Marco Bezzecchi170%0%1%12%27%9
Andrea Dovizioso180%0%1%12%12%20
Alex Marquez190%0%0%7%25%15
Fabio Di Giannantonio200%0%1%6%14%—
Raul Fernandez210%0%0%4%14%16
Remy Gardner220%0%0%3%14%17
Darryn Binder230%0%0%2%14%18
Stefan Bradl240%0%0%1%18%19

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · B. BinderS2 · BezzecchiS3 · A. EspargaroS4 · B. Binder

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,820 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2022

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

10/100
Position index
60%
Pole wins
60%
Front row on the podium
0.69
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 20% of the time (between 4% and 62%; 5 cases).

Descriptive, over 5 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2019 edition

88
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
25/25
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
9.816 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P16 to P5.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Valentino Rossi (21 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1

2019 edition

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Marc Marquez1:39.942—+0.210Soft23
Cal Crutchlow1:40.181+0.239+0.729Medium21
Valentino Rossi1:40.354+0.412+0.508Medium23
Andrea Dovizioso1:40.412+0.470+0.226Soft23
Alex Rins1:40.426+0.484+0.217Soft23
Maverick Viñales1:40.456+0.514+0.292Soft22
Jack Miller1:40.477+0.535+0.105Soft23
Franco Morbidelli1:40.482+0.540+0.512Medium22
Danilo Petrucci1:40.520+0.578+0.574Soft23
Takaaki Nakagami1:40.610+0.668+0.359Soft23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
  • 2022Aleix EspargaroAprilia
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2018Cal CrutchlowHonda
  • 2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha
  • 2016Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2015Valentino RossiYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20252/2010%
20230/170%
20224/2417%
20195/2223%
20183/2413%
20177/2330%

Tyres at the last edition

2019 edition

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Soft64%+0.74%−0.002127.8
Medium36%+0.80%+0.0130110.7

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.