Round 2 of 20 Aftermath

Indonesian Grand Prix 2022

4.313 m · 27 laps · since 2022

18.03 – 20.03.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	33:27.223	25
2	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+2.205	20
3	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+3.158	16
4	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+5.663	13
5	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+7.044	11
6	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+7.832	10
7	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+21.115	9
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+32.413	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+32.586	7
10	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+32.901	6
11	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+33.116	5
12	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+33.599	4
13	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+33.735	3
14	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+34.991	2
15	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+35.763	1
16	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+37.397	0
17	Raul Fernandez	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+41.975	0
18	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+47.915	0
19	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+49.471	0
20	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+49.473	0
21	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+55.964	0
DNF	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 32%	Miguel Oliveira · 4% · from P7	0.61 / 0.61	4.0 / 4.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

17/20

Laps led by the winner

Miguel Oliveira

2.205 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Darryn Binder, from P22 to P10.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Luca Marini (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	16:27:56	Jorge Martin	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:28:05	Andrea Dovizioso	Technical problem	stopped with technical issue
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #21

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Miguel Oliveira (started P7).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Joan Mir	17	8	+9
Franco Morbidelli	14	6	+8
Miguel Oliveira	7	1	+6
Enea Bastianini	5	14	−9
Aleix Espargaro	10	17	−7
Brad Binder	4	11	−7

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Joan Mir	17→6	+7.1
Darryn Binder	22→10	+6.3
Miguel Oliveira	7→1	+5.7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	11→18	−8.7
Francesco Bagnaia	6→15	−9.0
Marco Bezzecchi	13→20	−9.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Wet-Medium	100%	+1.44%	−0.144	1	3	11.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

27.0 °C

Air

max 27.1 °C

88%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

7 km/h

Wind

gusts 16 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Andrea Dovizioso	57%	7
2	Takaaki Nakagami	42%	14
3	Maverick Viñales	33%	10
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	20%	2 ✓
5	Marco Bezzecchi	17%	4
6	Alex Marquez	9%	9
7	Raul Fernandez	8%	11
8	Remy Gardner	4%	12
9	Pol Espargaro	2%	6
10	Joan Mir	3%	8
11	Luca Marini	3%	3
12	Marc Marquez	2%	5
13	Francesco Bagnaia	0%	1 ✓
14	Darryn Binder	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Quartararo	35%	65%	89%	1
2	Franco Morbidelli	26%	54%	84%	12
3	Johann Zarco	15%	48%	79%	3
4	Jorge Martin	4%	32%	68%	2
5	Enea Bastianini	4%	28%	54%	5
6	Jack Miller	6%	21%	55%	9
7	Aleix Espargaro	1%	11%	40%	10
8	Brad Binder	2%	11%	37%	4
9	Miguel Oliveira	2%	8%	28%	7
10	Alex Rins	2%	8%	23%	8
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	3%	11%	29%	11
12	Francesco Bagnaia	0%	3%	16%	6

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Marc Marquez	15	—	—	absent del Grid.pdf (pit lane / no surt)
Race	Franco Morbidelli	12	14	+2	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #21

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	32%	61%	75%	84%	14%	2
Jorge Martin	2	18%	44%	58%	69%	29%	—
Johann Zarco	3	15%	46%	65%	80%	17%	3
Brad Binder	4	13%	40%	61%	81%	16%	8
Enea Bastianini	5	7%	30%	54%	78%	17%	11
Francesco Bagnaia	6	4%	20%	38%	64%	30%	15
Miguel Oliveira	7	4%	17%	36%	71%	20%	1
Alex Rins	8	3%	13%	29%	66%	21%	5
Jack Miller	9	2%	9%	21%	59%	26%	4
Aleix Espargaro	10	1%	6%	16%	53%	26%	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	11	1%	5%	14%	55%	16%	18
Luca Marini	12	1%	4%	12%	58%	5%	14
Marco Bezzecchi	13	0%	2%	6%	35%	31%	20
Franco Morbidelli	14	0%	1%	5%	37%	16%	7
Pol Espargaro	15	0%	1%	4%	29%	19%	12
Andrea Dovizioso	16	0%	0%	2%	26%	12%	—
Joan Mir	17	0%	1%	2%	17%	16%	6
Alex Marquez	18	0%	0%	1%	10%	26%	13
Maverick Viñales	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	11%	16
Raul Fernandez	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	16%	17
Remy Gardner	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	16%	21
Darryn Binder	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	16%	10
Takaaki Nakagami	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	14%	19
Marc Marquez	24	0%	0%	0%	2%	15%	—

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,313 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.31%	Pedro Acosta +0.36%	Enea Bastianini +0.51%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.46%	Maverick Viñales +0.52%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.48%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Aleix Espargaro +0.48%	Franco Morbidelli +0.50%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.01%	Pedro Acosta +0.11%	Luca Marini +0.23%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Fermin Aldeguer +0.58%	Alex Rins +0.91%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi +0.13%	Luca Marini +0.27%	Pedro Acosta +0.35%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.19%	Miguel Oliveira +0.47%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Jorge Martin +0.42%	Enea Bastianini +0.50%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Pedro Acosta +0.21%
S4	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.33%	Jorge Martin +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Maverick Viñales +0.36%	Enea Bastianini +0.43%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.39%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.03%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.03%	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%	Aleix Espargaro +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.36%	Marc Marquez +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.41%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.33%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.07%	Miguel Oliveira +0.13%	Marc Marquez +0.68%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Franco Morbidelli +0.40%	Miguel Oliveira +0.77%

Fastest per sector: 2022

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

38/100

Position index

25%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.65

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 4 races (2022–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Enea Bastianini	25	—
2	Brad Binder	20	−5
3	Pol Espargaro	16	−9
4	Aleix Espargaro	13	−12
5	Marc Marquez	11	−14
6	Joan Mir	10	−15

Full championship →

Winners here

2025Fermin AldeguerDucati
2024Jorge MartinDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Miguel OliveiraKTM

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	5/19	26%
2024	9/21	43%
2023	7/21	33%
2022	2/23	9%