Round 4 of 20 Aftermath

Grand Prix of the Americas 2022

5.510 m · 20 laps · since 2013

08.04 – 10.04.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	41:23.111	25
2	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+2.058	20
3	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.312	16
4	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+3.975	13
5	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+6.045	11
6	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+6.617	10
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+6.760	9
8	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+8.441	8
9	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+12.375	7
10	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+12.642	6
11	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+12.947	5
12	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+13.376	4
13	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+17.961	3
14	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+18.770	2
15	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+29.319	1
16	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+29.129	0
17	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+29.630	0
18	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+32.002	0
19	Raul Fernandez	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+37.062	0
20	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+42.442	0
21	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+42.887	0
22	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+102.171	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 24%	Enea Bastianini · 9% · from P5	0.85 / 0.85	3.1 / 3.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Rins	2:04.074	—	+0.217	Soft	18
Enea Bastianini	2:04.082	+0.008	+0.319	Soft	18
Joan Mir	2:04.125	+0.051	+0.562	Soft	18
Marc Marquez	2:04.194	+0.120	+0.210	Soft	17
Jack Miller	2:04.281	+0.207	+0.105	Soft	18
Fabio Quartararo	2:04.344	+0.270	+0.275	Soft	18
Francesco Bagnaia	2:04.364	+0.290	+0.221	Soft	18
Jorge Martin	2:04.459	+0.385	+0.457	Soft	18
Johann Zarco	2:04.532	+0.458	+0.344	Soft	17
Brad Binder	2:04.560	+0.486	+0.327	Soft	18
Aleix Espargaro	2:04.587	+0.513	+0.209	Soft	18
Maverick Viñales	2:04.694	+0.620	+0.292	Soft	17
Pol Espargaro	2:04.874	+0.800	+0.406	Soft	18
Takaaki Nakagami	2:04.900	+0.826	+0.359	Soft	18
Franco Morbidelli	2:05.134	+1.060	+0.512	Soft	17
Luca Marini	2:05.211	+1.137	+0.308	Soft	17
Raul Fernandez	2:05.342	+1.268	+0.667	Medium	18
Miguel Oliveira	2:05.348	+1.274	+0.193	Medium	18
Andrea Dovizioso	2:05.461	+1.387	+0.226	Soft	17
Darryn Binder	2:06.024	+1.950	+0.272	Soft	16
Remy Gardner	2:06.071	+1.997	+1.660	Soft	18
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:06.120	+2.046	+0.320	Soft	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

5/20

Laps led by the winner

Enea Bastianini

2.058 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P17 to P12.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Luca Marini (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	13:04:47	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:06:08		Red flag	Marco BEZZECCHI black flag with orange disc
Race	13:12:22	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:53:24	Franco Morbidelli	Position penalty	1 position penalty due to exceeding track limit on the last lap

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jack Miller (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Miguel Oliveira	20	15	+5
Brad Binder	17	12	+5
Alex Marquez	23	19	+4
Marc Marquez	9	18	−9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	18	23	−5
Marco Bezzecchi	16	20	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Rins	7→2	+4.7
Enea Bastianini	5→1	+4.4
Joan Mir	8→4	+3.3
Takaaki Nakagami	10→14	−5.4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	18→21	−7.2
Luca Marini	11→17	−7.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	92%	+0.41%	−0.009	1	3	10.8
Medium	8%	+1.02%	+0.094	0	0	18.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

27.1 °C

Air

max 27.7 °C

59%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

31 km/h

Wind

gusts 44 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 08.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Rins	02:04.007	—	14	346.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	02:04.015	+0.008	15	341.7	missing / missing	2:05.913	+0.62%	5	Medium
3	Jack Miller	02:04.437	+0.430	18	350.6	Soft / Medium	2:07.161	+1.62%	12	Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	02:04.450	+0.443	17	336.4	Soft / Medium	2:05.261	+0.10%	12	Medium
5	Marc Marquez	02:04.469	+0.462	17	346.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
6	Pol Espargaro	02:04.581	+0.574	15	342.8	Soft / Medium	2:07.843	+2.17%	4	Medium
7	Enea Bastianini	02:04.594	+0.587	15	346.1	Soft / Medium	2:06.614	+1.18%	10	Medium
8	Aleix Espargaro	02:04.686	+0.679	16	343.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
9	Takaaki Nakagami	02:04.744	+0.737	18	345.0	Soft / Medium	2:05.939	+0.65%	13	Medium
10	Johann Zarco	02:04.893	+0.886	17	343.9	Soft / Medium	2:06.272	+0.91%	10	Medium
11	Joan Mir	02:04.900	+0.893	16	342.8	Soft / Medium	2:05.132	—	5	Medium
12	Brad Binder	02:04.983	+0.976	17	347.2	missing / missing	2:09.183	+3.24%	12	Hard
13	Francesco Bagnaia	02:05.003	+0.996	17	341.7	Soft / Medium	2:06.904	+1.42%	12	Medium
14	Jorge Martin	02:05.050	+1.043	16	340.6	Soft / Medium	2:07.751	+2.09%	5	Medium
15	Alex Marquez	02:05.146	+1.139	18	346.1	Soft / Medium	2:06.125	+0.79%	14	Medium
16	Luca Marini	02:05.177	+1.170	17	339.6	Soft / Medium	2:06.744	+1.29%	12	Medium
17	Franco Morbidelli	02:05.287	+1.280	14	334.3	Soft / Medium	2:07.441	+1.85%	5	Medium
18	Andrea Dovizioso	02:05.324	+1.317	15	339.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Raul Fernandez	02:05.326	+1.319	14	340.6	Soft / Medium	2:09.146	+3.21%	5	Medium
20	Marco Bezzecchi	02:05.386	+1.379	16	343.9	missing / missing	2:07.896	+2.21%	5	missing
21	Remy Gardner	02:05.672	+1.665	15	341.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Darryn Binder	02:06.198	+2.191	16	342.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
23	Miguel Oliveira	02:06.445	+2.438	15	337.5	Soft / Medium	2:07.758	+2.10%	5	Medium
24	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:06.497	+2.490	16	338.5	Soft / Medium	2:07.685	+2.04%	12	Medium

FP2 · 08.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	02:02.542	—	16	340.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
2	Jack Miller	02:02.789	+0.247	15	345.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Fabio Quartararo	02:02.837	+0.295	16	333.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
4	Enea Bastianini	02:02.884	+0.342	15	346.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
5	Alex Rins	02:03.030	+0.488	19	343.9	Hard / Soft	2:04.144	—	11	Soft
6	Marc Marquez	02:03.041	+0.499	17	342.8	Hard / Soft	2:07.348	+2.58%	5	Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	02:03.085	+0.543	17	342.8	Hard / Soft	2:04.539	+0.32%	7	Medium
8	Joan Mir	02:03.143	+0.601	17	341.7	Hard / Soft	2:04.652	+0.41%	4	Medium
9	Francesco Bagnaia	02:03.187	+0.645	16	343.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Jorge Martin	02:03.355	+0.813	16	342.8	Hard / Medium	—			—
11	Aleix Espargaro	02:03.370	+0.828	16	342.8	Hard / Soft	2:04.546	+0.32%	7	Medium
12	Pol Espargaro	02:03.438	+0.896	17	340.6	Hard / Soft	2:09.365	+4.21%	8	Medium
13	Brad Binder	02:03.538	+0.996	16	342.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Luca Marini	02:03.562	+1.020	16	337.5	Hard / Soft	2:05.247	+0.89%	5	Medium
15	Andrea Dovizioso	02:03.706	+1.164	16	339.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Alex Marquez	02:03.795	+1.253	14	345.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Takaaki Nakagami	02:04.074	+1.532	17	341.7	Soft / Soft	2:06.148	+1.61%	5	Medium
18	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:04.367	+1.825	12	338.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
19	Marco Bezzecchi	02:04.463	+1.921	14	338.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
20	Remy Gardner	02:04.535	+1.993	15	337.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
21	Franco Morbidelli	02:04.664	+2.122	15	332.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
22	Darryn Binder	02:04.679	+2.137	16	340.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
23	Raul Fernandez	02:04.770	+2.228	15	335.4	Hard / Medium	2:07.912	+3.04%	5	Medium
24	Miguel Oliveira	02:05.342	+2.800	15	338.5	Hard / Medium	—			—

FP3 · 09.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	02:02.361	—	17	333.3	Soft / Soft	2:03.884	—	8	Soft
2	Enea Bastianini	02:02.420	+0.059	14	350.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
3	Jack Miller	02:02.447	+0.086	17	343.9	Soft / Soft	2:04.323	+0.35%	7	Soft
4	Marc Marquez	02:02.490	+0.129	17	343.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Francesco Bagnaia	02:02.621	+0.260	19	343.9	Soft / Soft	2:04.358	+0.38%	7	Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	02:02.798	+0.437	14	341.7	Soft / Soft	2:08.455	+3.69%	5	Soft
7	Joan Mir	02:02.874	+0.513	15	341.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Takaaki Nakagami	02:02.908	+0.547	16	341.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Luca Marini	02:02.921	+0.560	16	337.5	Soft / Soft	2:04.581	+0.56%	6	Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	02:02.997	+0.636	17	340.6	Hard / Soft	2:04.258	+0.30%	5	Soft
11	Alex Rins	02:03.072	+0.711	17	341.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Franco Morbidelli	02:03.086	+0.725	15	332.3	Soft / Soft	2:04.386	+0.41%	5	Soft
13	Maverick Viñales	02:03.354	+0.993	14	337.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Andrea Dovizioso	02:03.370	+1.009	16	338.5	Soft / Soft	2:05.873	+1.61%	5	Soft
15	Johann Zarco	02:03.513	+1.152	15	340.6	Soft / Soft	2:04.330	+0.36%	7	Soft
16	Brad Binder	02:03.622	+1.261	16	341.7	Soft / Soft	2:04.851	+0.78%	6	Soft
17	Jorge Martin	02:03.637	+1.276	14	334.3	Soft / Soft	2:04.850	+0.78%	6	Medium
18	Alex Marquez	02:03.833	+1.472	15	342.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Miguel Oliveira	02:03.949	+1.588	15	336.4	Soft / Soft	2:05.613	+1.40%	7	Soft
20	Remy Gardner	02:04.099	+1.738	16	332.3	Soft / Soft	2:05.149	+1.02%	5	Soft
21	Darryn Binder	02:04.296	+1.935	14	337.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Marco Bezzecchi	02:04.349	+1.988	15	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
23	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:04.506	+2.145	12	337.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
24	Raul Fernandez	02:04.542	+2.181	15	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 09.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	02:02.983	—	13	338.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	02:03.115	+0.132	12	341.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
3	Enea Bastianini	02:03.169	+0.186	10	346.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
4	Fabio Quartararo	02:03.359	+0.376	12	331.2	Hard / Soft	2:04.466	+0.45%	5	Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	02:03.373	+0.390	12	343.9	Hard / Soft	2:03.972	+0.05%	5	Soft
6	Johann Zarco	02:03.421	+0.438	12	345.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
7	Maverick Viñales	02:03.536	+0.553	12	337.5	Hard / Soft	2:04.003	+0.08%	6	Soft
8	Alex Rins	02:03.675	+0.692	13	339.6	Hard / Soft	2:03.908	—	5	Soft
9	Joan Mir	02:03.706	+0.723	12	339.6	Hard / Soft	2:04.438	+0.43%	5	Soft
10	Jorge Martin	02:03.712	+0.729	10	335.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
11	Pol Espargaro	02:03.892	+0.909	12	339.6	Hard / Soft	2:06.834	+2.36%	5	Soft
12	Jack Miller	02:03.895	+0.912	12	340.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
13	Franco Morbidelli	02:04.052	+1.069	11	329.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Alex Marquez	02:04.141	+1.158	10	338.5	Hard / Soft	2:04.490	+0.47%	6	Soft
15	Luca Marini	02:04.286	+1.303	14	336.4	Hard / Soft	2:04.746	+0.68%	10	Soft
16	Takaaki Nakagami	02:04.302	+1.319	13	337.5	Hard / Soft	2:04.341	+0.35%	5	Soft
17	Marco Bezzecchi	02:04.354	+1.371	10	337.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Brad Binder	02:04.421	+1.438	12	335.4	Hard / Medium	2:04.766	+0.69%	7	Medium
19	Miguel Oliveira	02:04.538	+1.555	13	331.2	Hard / Medium	2:05.730	+1.47%	5	Medium
20	Andrea Dovizioso	02:04.539	+1.556	12	331.2	Hard / Soft	2:04.877	+0.78%	5	Soft
21	Remy Gardner	02:04.873	+1.890	12	329.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
22	Darryn Binder	02:05.132	+2.149	13	338.5	Hard / Soft	2:07.476	+2.88%	4	Soft
23	Raul Fernandez	02:05.224	+2.241	10	330.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
24	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:05.374	+2.391	9	334.3	Hard / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 09.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	02:02.487	—	6	337.5	Hard / Soft
2	Alex Rins	02:02.723	+0.236	7	339.6	Hard / Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	02:02.922	+0.435	4	337.5	Hard / Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	02:03.121	+0.634	7	338.5	Hard / Soft
5	Andrea Dovizioso	02:03.133	+0.646	6	337.5	Hard / Soft
6	Marco Bezzecchi	02:03.328	+0.841	6	342.8	Hard / Soft
7	Brad Binder	02:03.467	+0.980	7	335.4	Hard / Soft
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:03.576	+1.089	6	339.6	Hard / Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	02:03.579	+1.092	7	332.3	Hard / Soft
10	Miguel Oliveira	02:03.983	+1.496	7	336.4	Hard / Soft
11	Raul Fernandez	02:04.140	+1.653	7	331.2	Hard / Soft
12	Remy Gardner	02:04.185	+1.698	6	332.3	Hard / Soft
13	Alex Marquez	02:04.229	+1.742	6	342.8	Hard / Soft
14	Darryn Binder	02:04.646	+2.159	4	335.4	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 09.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	02:02.039	—	6	338.5	Hard / Soft
2	Jack Miller	02:02.042	+0.003	6	342.8	Soft / Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	02:02.167	+0.128	6	339.6	Hard / Soft
4	Johann Zarco	02:02.570	+0.531	7	346.1	Hard / Soft
5	Enea Bastianini	02:02.578	+0.539	6	349.5	Hard / Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	02:02.634	+0.595	5	336.4	Hard / Soft
7	Alex Rins	02:02.694	+0.655	7	343.9	Hard / Soft
8	Joan Mir	02:02.947	+0.908	6	341.7	Hard / Soft
9	Marc Marquez	02:03.038	+0.999	6	340.6	Hard / Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	02:03.054	+1.015	7	338.5	Soft / Soft
11	Luca Marini	02:03.059	+1.020	7	341.7	Hard / Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	02:03.096	+1.057	6	340.6	Hard / Soft

Warm Up · 10.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	02:03.647	—	10	340.6	Soft / Soft	2:04.749	+0.27%	7	Soft
2	Enea Bastianini	02:03.756	+0.109	8	343.9	Soft / Soft	2:04.600	+0.15%	5	Soft
3	Takaaki Nakagami	02:03.815	+0.168	10	338.5	Soft / Soft	2:05.573	+0.93%	7	Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	02:03.853	+0.206	10	339.6	Soft / Soft	2:04.819	+0.32%	7	Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	02:03.941	+0.294	9	339.6	Soft / Soft	2:04.436	+0.02%	4	Soft
6	Joan Mir	02:03.946	+0.299	10	336.4	Soft / Soft	2:06.136	+1.38%	8	Soft
7	Johann Zarco	02:04.009	+0.362	10	345.0	Soft / Medium	2:04.807	+0.31%	8	Medium
8	Marc Marquez	02:04.054	+0.407	6	333.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Alex Rins	02:04.109	+0.462	9	337.5	Soft / Soft	2:04.582	+0.13%	6	Soft
10	Fabio Quartararo	02:04.149	+0.502	8	334.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Jorge Martin	02:04.247	+0.600	9	336.4	Soft / Soft	2:04.417	—	5	Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	02:04.275	+0.628	10	339.6	Soft / Soft	2:04.527	+0.09%	5	Soft
13	Marco Bezzecchi	02:04.275	+0.628	9	338.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Jack Miller	02:04.308	+0.661	10	340.6	Soft / Soft	2:04.554	+0.11%	8	Soft
15	Brad Binder	02:04.311	+0.664	10	338.5	Soft / Soft	2:04.587	+0.14%	7	Soft
16	Alex Marquez	02:04.498	+0.851	9	340.6	Soft / Soft	2:05.776	+1.09%	7	Soft
17	Luca Marini	02:04.552	+0.905	10	338.5	Soft / Soft	2:05.298	+0.71%	6	Soft
18	Remy Gardner	02:04.707	+1.060	10	332.3	Soft / Soft	2:05.232	+0.66%	6	Soft
19	Raul Fernandez	02:05.039	+1.392	8	331.2	Soft / Medium	2:05.165	+0.60%	5	Medium
20	Andrea Dovizioso	02:05.046	+1.399	8	329.2	Soft / Soft	2:05.402	+0.79%	4	Soft
21	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:05.106	+1.459	8	338.5	Soft / Soft	2:05.222	+0.65%	5	Soft
22	Miguel Oliveira	02:05.307	+1.660	10	330.2	Soft / Soft	2:06.128	+1.38%	6	Soft
23	Darryn Binder	02:05.399	+1.752	10	335.4	Soft / Soft	2:08.724	+3.46%	8	Soft
24	Franco Morbidelli	02:05.974	+2.327	2	326.2	Soft / Soft	—			—

Race · 10.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Enea Bastianini	41:23.111	25	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.082	+0.01%	18	Soft
2	Alex Rins	+2.058	20	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.074	—	18	Soft
3	Jack Miller	+2.312	16	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.281	+0.17%	18	Soft
4	Joan Mir	+3.975	13	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.125	+0.04%	18	Soft
5	Francesco Bagnaia	+6.045	11	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.364	+0.23%	18	Soft
6	Marc Marquez	+6.617	10	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.194	+0.10%	17	Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	+6.760	9	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.344	+0.22%	18	Soft
8	Jorge Martin	+8.441	8	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.459	+0.31%	18	Soft
9	Johann Zarco	+12.375	7	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.532	+0.37%	17	Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	+12.642	6	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.694	+0.50%	17	Soft
11	Aleix Espargaro	+12.947	5	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.587	+0.41%	18	Soft
12	Brad Binder	+13.376	4	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.560	+0.39%	18	Soft
13	Pol Espargaro	+17.961	3	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.874	+0.65%	18	Soft
14	Takaaki Nakagami	+18.770	2	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.900	+0.67%	18	Soft
15	Andrea Dovizioso	+29.319	1	20	Hard / Soft	2:05.461	+1.12%	17	Soft
16	Franco Morbidelli	+29.129	0	20	Hard / Soft	2:05.134	+0.85%	17	Soft
17	Luca Marini	+29.630	0	20	Hard / Soft	2:05.211	+0.92%	17	Soft
18	Miguel Oliveira	+32.002	0	20	Hard / Medium	2:05.348	+1.03%	18	Medium
19	Raul Fernandez	+37.062	0	20	Hard / Medium	2:05.342	+1.02%	18	Medium
20	Remy Gardner	+42.442	0	20	Hard / Soft	2:06.071	+1.61%	18	Soft
21	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+42.887	0	20	Hard / Soft	2:06.120	+1.65%	18	Soft
22	Darryn Binder	+102.171	0	20	Hard / Soft	2:06.024	+1.57%	16	Soft
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	5	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Marco Bezzecchi		0	2	Hard / Soft	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Aleix Espargaro	56%	3
2	Alex Rins	42%	2 ✓
3	Maverick Viñales	32%	4
4	Franco Morbidelli	21%	9
5	Jorge Martin	17%	1 ✓
6	Andrea Dovizioso	9%	5
7	Brad Binder	8%	7
8	Alex Marquez	4%	13
9	Miguel Oliveira	2%	10
10	Remy Gardner	3%	12
11	Darryn Binder	3%	14
12	Marco Bezzecchi	2%	6
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	1%	8
14	Raul Fernandez	0%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Quartararo	35%	65%	89%	6
2	Enea Bastianini	26%	53%	83%	5
3	Jack Miller	15%	48%	79%	2
4	Marc Marquez	4%	32%	68%	9
5	Johann Zarco	4%	27%	53%	4
6	Francesco Bagnaia	6%	21%	55%	3
7	Pol Espargaro	1%	11%	40%	12
8	Joan Mir	3%	12%	37%	8
9	Takaaki Nakagami	2%	8%	28%	10
10	Luca Marini	2%	8%	23%	11
11	Alex Rins	3%	11%	29%	7
12	Jorge Martin	0%	3%	17%	1

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	24%	48%	59%	67%	31%	8
Jack Miller	2	20%	47%	61%	71%	26%	3
Francesco Bagnaia	3	13%	39%	55%	69%	29%	5
Johann Zarco	4	12%	37%	58%	78%	17%	9
Enea Bastianini	5	9%	32%	53%	79%	15%	1
Fabio Quartararo	6	7%	27%	49%	79%	14%	7
Alex Rins	7	5%	19%	37%	70%	20%	2
Joan Mir	8	4%	15%	33%	70%	16%	4
Marc Marquez	9	2%	10%	24%	67%	15%	6
Takaaki Nakagami	10	2%	8%	19%	62%	14%	14
Luca Marini	11	1%	6%	17%	64%	4%	17
Pol Espargaro	12	1%	4%	11%	48%	20%	13
Aleix Espargaro	13	0%	3%	7%	37%	26%	11
Maverick Viñales	14	0%	2%	6%	37%	11%	10
Andrea Dovizioso	15	0%	2%	4%	30%	12%	15
Marco Bezzecchi	16	0%	1%	3%	20%	24%	—
Brad Binder	17	0%	1%	2%	15%	15%	12
Fabio Di Giannantonio	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	24%	21
Franco Morbidelli	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	17%	16
Miguel Oliveira	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	20%	18
Raul Fernandez	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	13%	19
Remy Gardner	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	13%	20
Alex Marquez	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	25%	—
Darryn Binder	24	0%	0%	0%	2%	13%	22

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.55%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.60%
S3	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%	Fabio Quartararo +0.67%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.53%	Luca Marini +0.71%
S3	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.66%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.04%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Pedro Acosta +0.07%	Jorge Martin +0.19%
S2	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Jorge Martin +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Raul Fernandez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Rins +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.04%	Luca Marini +0.18%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Alex Rins +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez	Enea Bastianini +0.15%	Johann Zarco +0.37%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.43%
S4	Alex Rins +0.20%	Joan Mir +0.23%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jack Miller +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.31%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.64%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.09%	Johann Zarco +0.25%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.59%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.53%	Maverick Viñales +0.60%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.14%	Cal Crutchlow +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Cal Crutchlow +0.17%	Alex Rins +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.59%	Maverick Viñales +0.79%
S3	Marc Marquez	Valentino Rossi +0.74%	Maverick Viñales +0.80%
S4	Andrea Iannone	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Fastest per sector: 2022

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

67/100

Position index

14%

Pole wins

62%

Front row on the podium

0.79

Grid ↔ result

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Aleix Espargaro	45	—
2	Brad Binder	38	−7
3	Alex Rins	36	−9
4	Enea Bastianini	36	−9
5	Fabio Quartararo	35	−10
6	Joan Mir	33	−12

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2021 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

20/20

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

4.679 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P16 to P6.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Joan Mir (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2021 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	2:04.815	—	+0.210	Soft	17
Takaaki Nakagami	2:05.026	+0.211	+0.359	Soft	16
Jorge Martin	2:05.111	+0.296	+0.457	Soft	17
Fabio Quartararo	2:05.118	+0.303	+0.275	Soft	18
Francesco Bagnaia	2:05.252	+0.437	+0.221	Soft	18
Joan Mir	2:05.462	+0.647	+0.562	Soft	18
Jack Miller	2:05.468	+0.653	+0.105	Hard	17
Enea Bastianini	2:05.472	+0.657	+0.319	Soft	18
Alex Rins	2:05.606	+0.791	+0.217	Soft	17
Brad Binder	2:05.607	+0.792	+0.327	Medium	18

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Maverick ViñalesAprilia
2023Alex RinsHonda
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2019Alex RinsSuzuki
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	5/22	23%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	9/22	41%
2022	2/24	8%
2021	2/21	10%
2019	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

2021 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	86%	+0.67%	+0.020	1	3	9.9
Medium	10%	+0.88%	+0.021	0	0	12.0
Hard	5%	+0.52%	+0.090	0	0	7.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.