Round 7 of 15 Aftermath

San Marino Grand Prix 2020

Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli San Marino

4.226 m · 27 laps · since 1980

11.09 – 13.09.2020

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	42:02.272	25
2	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+2.217	20
3	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+2.290	16
4	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+2.643	13
5	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+4.044	11
6	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+5.383	10
7	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+10.358	9
8	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+11.155	8
9	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+10.839	7
10	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+12.030	6
11	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+12.376	5
12	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+12.405	4
13	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+15.142	3
14	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+19.914	2
15	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+20.152	1
16	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Ducati Team	+22.094	0
17	Alex Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+22.473	0
18	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+37.856	0
19	Bradley Smith	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+78.831	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Retired	0
DNF	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Maverick Viñales · 29%	Franco Morbidelli · 20% · from P2	0.87 / 0.87	2.4 / 2.4

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Franco Morbidelli

2.217 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Takaaki Nakagami, from P14 to P8.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Miguel Oliveira (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:19		Jump start	jump start
Race	14:05:21	Bradley Smith	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:06:03	Iker Lecuona	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to grid procedure infraction
Race	14:11:56	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:31:37	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:36:13	Tito Rabat	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:51:52	Takaaki Nakagami	Position penalty	1 position penalty due to exceeding track limit on the last lap

Race: 2 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Franco Morbidelli (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Takaaki Nakagami	14	11	+3
Stefan Bradl	19	17	+2
Valentino Rossi	4	2	+2
Tito Rabat	17	20	−3
Maverick Viñales	1	4	−3
Miguel Oliveira	12	15	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Joan Mir	8→3	+4.3
Francesco Bagnaia	6→2	+4.0
Franco Morbidelli	2→1	+2.5
Bradley Smith	20→19	−4.0
Danilo Petrucci	15→16	−4.2
Johann Zarco	10→15	−6.4

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	57%	+0.53%	−0.007	0	1	11.7
Medium	38%	+0.30%	−0.024	1	2	7.9
Hard	5%	+0.32%	−0.030	0	0	6.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

26.4 °C

Air

max 26.6 °C

62%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

15 km/h

Wind

gusts 34 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Pol Espargaro	58%	1 ✓
2	Aleix Espargaro	44%	3
3	Takaaki Nakagami	33%	4
4	Iker Lecuona	18%	8
5	Danilo Petrucci	17%	5
6	Miguel Oliveira	8%	2 ✓
7	Brad Binder	9%	6
8	Bradley Smith	4%	10
9	Alex Marquez	2%	11
10	Tito Rabat	3%	7
11	Stefan Bradl	2%	9

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Valentino Rossi	38%	70%	91%	4
2	Maverick Viñales	24%	51%	84%	1
3	Fabio Quartararo	17%	50%	82%	3
4	Jack Miller	4%	33%	69%	5
5	Alex Rins	3%	28%	55%	7
6	Joan Mir	7%	22%	56%	8
7	Francesco Bagnaia	1%	11%	43%	6
8	Johann Zarco	2%	12%	36%	10
9	Franco Morbidelli	1%	7%	28%	2
10	Andrea Dovizioso	2%	7%	21%	9
11	Pol Espargaro	1%	8%	23%	11
12	Miguel Oliveira	0%	3%	15%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Cal Crutchlow	22	—	—	absent del Grid.pdf (pit lane / no surt)

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Maverick Viñales	1	29%	60%	75%	85%	13%	6
Franco Morbidelli	2	20%	46%	62%	75%	22%	1
Fabio Quartararo	3	14%	43%	62%	79%	17%	—
Valentino Rossi	4	13%	41%	63%	86%	10%	4
Jack Miller	5	6%	25%	45%	69%	25%	8
Francesco Bagnaia	6	5%	21%	38%	63%	31%	2
Alex Rins	7	4%	18%	36%	72%	20%	5
Joan Mir	8	3%	14%	30%	66%	22%	3
Andrea Dovizioso	9	3%	10%	24%	71%	12%	7
Johann Zarco	10	1%	7%	18%	62%	16%	15
Pol Espargaro	11	1%	4%	13%	52%	21%	10
Miguel Oliveira	12	1%	4%	10%	48%	15%	11
Aleix Espargaro	13	1%	3%	8%	38%	25%	13
Takaaki Nakagami	14	0%	2%	6%	36%	11%	9
Danilo Petrucci	15	0%	1%	4%	28%	20%	16
Brad Binder	16	0%	1%	2%	23%	20%	12
Tito Rabat	17	0%	1%	2%	16%	18%	—
Iker Lecuona	18	0%	0%	1%	8%	43%	14
Stefan Bradl	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	20%	18
Bradley Smith	20	0%	0%	0%	7%	14%	19
Alex Marquez	21	0%	0%	1%	6%	11%	17
Cal Crutchlow	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	28%	—

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,218 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.37%	Jorge Martin +0.47%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Jack Miller +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.31%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Fermin Aldeguer +0.48%	Raul Fernandez +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.14%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.10%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.25%	Luca Marini +0.29%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Enea Bastianini +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.41%
S4	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.39%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%
S2	Jorge Martin	Daniel Pedrosa +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Luca Marini +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.34%	Enea Bastianini +0.55%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.14%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S4	Jack Miller	Johann Zarco +0.40%	Fabio Quartararo +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.36%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.17%	Jack Miller +0.37%	Enea Bastianini +0.38%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.18%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Franco Morbidelli +0.10%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%	Pol Espargaro +0.22%	Miguel Oliveira +0.35%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Pol Espargaro +0.59%
S4	Jack Miller +0.17%	Miguel Oliveira +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.56%	Marc Marquez +0.62%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.45%	Maverick Viñales +0.53%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Valentino Rossi +0.52%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Pol Espargaro +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.13%	Cal Crutchlow +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.32%
S2	Jorge Lorenzo	Andrea Dovizioso +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.54%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%	Cal Crutchlow +0.44%	Marc Marquez +0.45%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.19%	Jack Miller +0.20%

Fastest per sector: 2020

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

29/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.73

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Andrea Dovizioso	76	—
2	Fabio Quartararo	70	−6
3	Jack Miller	64	−12
4	Joan Mir	60	−16
5	Valentino Rossi	58	−18
6	Maverick Viñales	58	−18

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2019 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

1/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.903 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Tito Rabat, from P22 to P13.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Marc Marquez (24 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2019 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:34.036	—	+0.210	Medium	25
Fabio Quartararo	1:34.077	+0.041	+0.275	Medium	25
Maverick Viñales	1:34.132	+0.096	+0.292	Medium	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:34.469	+0.433	+0.512	Medium	23
Andrea Dovizioso	1:34.489	+0.453	+0.226	Medium	23
Valentino Rossi	1:34.518	+0.482	+0.508	Medium	23
Alex Rins	1:34.595	+0.559	+0.217	Medium	12
Pol Espargaro	1:34.759	+0.723	+0.406	Medium	23
Jack Miller	1:34.836	+0.800	+0.105	Medium	22
Joan Mir	1:34.837	+0.801	+0.562	Medium	23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	7/21	33%
2025	7/23	30%
2024	3/22	14%
2023	4/23	17%
2022	4/25	16%
2021	3/24	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2019 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	91%	+0.92%	+0.013	1	3	8.8
Soft	9%	+1.83%	+0.027	0	0	15.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.