Round 6 of 15 Aftermath

Styrian Grand Prix 2020

4.348 m · 28 laps · since 1996

21.08 – 23.08.2020

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	16:56.025	25
2	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+0.316	20
3	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+0.540	16
4	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+0.641	13
5	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+1.414	11
6	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+1.450	10
7	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+1.864	9
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+4.150	8
9	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+4.517	7
10	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+5.068	6
11	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Ducati Team	+5.918	5
12	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+6.411	4
13	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+7.406	3
14	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+7.454	2
15	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+10.191	1
16	Alex Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+10.524	0
17	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+11.447	0
18	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+11.943	0
19	Bradley Smith	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+12.732	0
20	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+14.349	0
21	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+14.548	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP		0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Pol Espargaro · 29%	Miguel Oliveira · 4% · from P7	0.81 / 0.81	3.1 / 3.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Pol Espargaro	1:24.188	—	+0.406	Medium	8
Andrea Dovizioso	1:24.225	+0.037	+0.226	Soft	9
Miguel Oliveira	1:24.268	+0.080	+0.193	Medium	10
Jack Miller	1:24.276	+0.088	+0.105	Soft	9
Brad Binder	1:24.288	+0.100	+0.327	Medium	8
Alex Rins	1:24.322	+0.134	+0.217	Medium	8
Takaaki Nakagami	1:24.382	+0.194	+0.359	Soft	10
Joan Mir	1:24.410	+0.222	+0.562	Medium	10
Valentino Rossi	1:24.561	+0.373	+0.508	Soft	9
Johann Zarco	1:24.583	+0.395	+0.344	Soft	10
Iker Lecuona	1:24.621	+0.433	+0.094	Medium	10
Aleix Espargaro	1:24.640	+0.452	+0.209	Soft	10
Danilo Petrucci	1:24.655	+0.467	+0.574	Soft	9
Fabio Quartararo	1:24.661	+0.473	+0.275	Soft	10
Franco Morbidelli	1:24.880	+0.692	+0.512	Soft	10
Cal Crutchlow	1:24.888	+0.700	+0.729	Soft	9
Alex Marquez	1:25.042	+0.854	+0.356	Medium	10
Bradley Smith	1:25.126	+0.938	+0.085	Soft	10
Stefan Bradl	1:25.152	+0.964	+0.530	Medium	9
Tito Rabat	1:25.297	+1.109	+0.229	Soft	10
Michele Pirro	1:25.332	+1.144	+0.267	Soft	9

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

1/12

Laps led by the winner

Miguel Oliveira

0.316 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Johann Zarco, from P22 to P14.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Fabio Quartararo (12 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:00:28	Johann Zarco	Pit-lane start	Starting from pit lane
Race	14:01:03	Joan Mir	Position penalty	To drop 1 position - due to gain advantage at turn 1
Race	14:02:57		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:23:27	Maverick Viñales	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:23:34		Red flag	Red flag
Race	14:28:34		Red flag	Maverick VIÑALES not entered in pit lane after the red flag
Race	14:41:34		Jump start	Jump start

Race: 7 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jack Miller (started P4).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	13	5	+8
Aleix Espargaro	19	14	+5
Johann Zarco	22	17	+5
Michele Pirro	15	20	−5
Takaaki Nakagami	2	7	−5
Franco Morbidelli	10	15	−5

Race stopped with a red flag: this compares with Saturday’s grid, but the restart used the order from the first part. Places gained are approximate.

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Miguel Oliveira	7→1	+5.7
Jack Miller	4→2	+2.8
Brad Binder	13→8	+2.5
Tito Rabat	21→21	−5.3
Franco Morbidelli	10→15	−6.4
Michele Pirro	15→20	−8.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	62%	+0.55%	−0.011	0	1	12.7
Medium	38%	+0.21%	+0.016	1	2	8.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

22.8 °C

Air

max 23.1 °C

52%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

6 km/h

Wind

gusts 23 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 21.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:23.859	—	24	313.9	Soft / Soft	1:24.750	+0.55%	9	Medium
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:23.863	+0.004	22	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:24.615	+0.39%	7	Medium
3	Miguel Oliveira	01:23.898	+0.039	24	309.4	Medium / Soft	1:25.090	+0.96%	14	Medium
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:23.950	+0.091	23	310.3	Medium / Medium	1:24.283	—	8	Medium
5	Joan Mir	01:23.961	+0.102	24	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:24.752	+0.56%	13	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:24.198	+0.339	20	306.8	Soft / Soft	1:25.228	+1.12%	8	Medium
7	Brad Binder	01:24.251	+0.392	23	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:25.231	+1.13%	10	Medium
8	Iker Lecuona	01:24.301	+0.442	22	304.2	Hard / Medium	1:25.035	+0.89%	7	Medium
9	Maverick Viñales	01:24.324	+0.465	22	308.5	Soft / Medium	1:25.168	+1.05%	6	Medium
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:24.381	+0.522	20	304.2	Medium / Soft	1:24.784	+0.59%	7	Medium
11	Pol Espargaro	01:24.397	+0.538	23	313.9	Medium / Medium	1:24.703	+0.50%	10	Medium
12	Michele Pirro	01:24.508	+0.649	20	310.3	Medium / Medium	1:25.156	+1.04%	5	Medium
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:24.517	+0.658	20	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:24.809	+0.62%	10	Medium
14	Bradley Smith	01:24.623	+0.764	24	308.5	Medium / Soft	1:25.547	+1.50%	18	Medium
15	Alex Rins	01:24.628	+0.769	21	312.1	Soft / Medium	1:24.718	+0.52%	5	Medium
16	Alex Marquez	01:24.690	+0.831	23	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:25.381	+1.30%	12	Medium
17	Valentino Rossi	01:24.699	+0.840	23	302.5	Soft / Medium	1:24.965	+0.81%	10	Medium
18	Cal Crutchlow	01:24.764	+0.905	20	309.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Tito Rabat	01:24.806	+0.947	26	305.0	Medium / Medium	1:25.440	+1.37%	20	Medium
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:24.808	+0.949	25	310.3	Medium / Medium	1:25.286	+1.19%	16	Medium
21	Stefan Bradl	01:24.914	+1.055	21	311.2	Medium / Soft	1:25.634	+1.60%	12	Medium
Retired	Johann Zarco		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP2 · 21.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Pol Espargaro	01:23.638	—	22	309.4	Hard / Soft	1:24.379	+0.06%	7	Medium
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:23.904	+0.266	23	309.4	Medium / Soft	1:25.059	+0.87%	10	Medium
3	Joan Mir	01:23.907	+0.269	22	305.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Alex Rins	01:24.009	+0.371	21	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:24.329	—	5	Soft
5	Maverick Viñales	01:24.060	+0.422	22	305.9	Medium / Soft	1:24.838	+0.60%	13	Medium
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:24.118	+0.480	22	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:25.075	+0.89%	13	Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:24.187	+0.549	23	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:25.181	+1.01%	14	Medium
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:24.366	+0.728	16	311.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Valentino Rossi	01:24.378	+0.740	21	301.6	Medium / Soft	1:25.076	+0.89%	5	Medium
10	Brad Binder	01:24.427	+0.789	21	306.8	Hard / Medium	1:25.095	+0.91%	11	Medium
11	Iker Lecuona	01:24.429	+0.791	23	304.2	Hard / Soft	1:25.378	+1.24%	6	Medium
12	Alex Marquez	01:24.463	+0.825	24	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:25.218	+1.05%	16	Soft
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:24.560	+0.922	22	309.4	Medium / Soft	1:26.216	+2.24%	5	Medium
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:24.643	+1.005	23	302.5	Hard / Medium	1:24.848	+0.62%	13	Medium
15	Andrea Dovizioso	01:24.774	+1.136	25	309.4	Medium / Soft	1:25.372	+1.24%	18	Soft
16	Michele Pirro	01:24.807	+1.169	19	308.5	Medium / Soft	1:25.476	+1.36%	5	Medium
17	Jack Miller	01:24.925	+1.287	19	307.6	Hard / Medium	—			—
18	Danilo Petrucci	01:24.985	+1.347	14	307.6	Hard / Soft	1:25.113	+0.93%	5	Soft
19	Bradley Smith	01:25.025	+1.387	22	307.6	Hard / Soft	1:25.797	+1.74%	11	Medium
20	Stefan Bradl	01:25.057	+1.419	22	306.8	Hard / Soft	1:25.954	+1.93%	6	Medium
21	Tito Rabat	01:25.221	+1.583	26	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:26.056	+2.05%	20	Medium
Retired	Johann Zarco		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP3 · 22.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Joan Mir	01:23.456	—	24	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:23.728	—	4	Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:23.607	+0.151	22	306.8	Medium / Soft	1:24.368	+0.76%	8	Medium
3	Takaaki Nakagami	01:23.610	+0.154	21	309.4	Medium / Soft	1:24.554	+0.99%	5	Soft
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:23.610	+0.154	22	314.8	Medium / Soft	1:25.442	+2.05%	11	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:23.617	+0.161	25	309.4	Soft / Soft	1:24.587	+1.03%	9	Medium
6	Pol Espargaro	01:23.660	+0.204	24	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:24.215	+0.58%	11	Soft
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:23.725	+0.269	24	311.2	Hard / Soft	1:24.800	+1.28%	10	Medium
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:23.727	+0.271	24	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:25.345	+1.93%	11	Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:23.754	+0.298	22	308.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
10	Jack Miller	01:23.795	+0.339	20	313.0	Soft / Soft	1:24.596	+1.04%	12	Medium
11	Brad Binder	01:23.798	+0.342	23	308.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
12	Johann Zarco	01:23.879	+0.423	13	313.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:23.881	+0.425	21	309.4	Medium / Soft	1:24.558	+0.99%	5	Medium
14	Iker Lecuona	01:23.889	+0.433	22	309.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Valentino Rossi	01:23.950	+0.494	27	304.2	Medium / Soft	1:24.806	+1.29%	12	Medium
16	Cal Crutchlow	01:24.126	+0.670	22	308.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Bradley Smith	01:24.136	+0.680	21	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:25.050	+1.58%	7	Medium
18	Michele Pirro	01:24.296	+0.840	19	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:25.429	+2.03%	5	Medium
19	Aleix Espargaro	01:24.423	+0.967	20	311.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Stefan Bradl	01:24.617	+1.161	25	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:25.615	+2.25%	17	Soft
21	Alex Marquez	01:24.742	+1.286	20	312.1	Medium / Soft	1:25.623	+2.26%	5	Soft
22	Tito Rabat	01:25.047	+1.591	24	305.9	Medium / Soft	1:25.750	+2.42%	12	Soft

FP4 · 22.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Takaaki Nakagami	01:24.450	—	18	308.5	Medium / Soft	1:25.121	+0.36%	9	Soft
2	Joan Mir	01:24.460	+0.010	18	306.8	Medium / Medium	1:25.115	+0.35%	12	Medium
3	Pol Espargaro	01:24.523	+0.073	15	311.2	Medium / Medium	1:24.820	—	6	Medium
4	Alex Rins	01:24.651	+0.201	15	307.6	Medium / Medium	1:24.983	+0.19%	7	Medium
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:24.651	+0.201	18	305.0	Medium / Soft	1:24.987	+0.20%	12	Medium
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:24.699	+0.249	16	305.9	Hard / Medium	1:24.996	+0.21%	5	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:24.716	+0.266	17	309.4	Medium / Medium	1:24.962	+0.17%	8	Medium
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:24.812	+0.362	18	302.5	Hard / Medium	1:25.125	+0.36%	12	Medium
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:24.908	+0.458	15	309.4	Medium / Medium	1:25.348	+0.62%	10	Medium
10	Michele Pirro	01:24.909	+0.459	12	308.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:24.973	+0.523	15	308.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Maverick Viñales	01:25.063	+0.613	15	306.8	Medium / Medium	1:26.060	+1.46%	6	Medium
13	Valentino Rossi	01:25.073	+0.623	17	304.2	Medium / Medium	1:25.398	+0.68%	11	Medium
14	Brad Binder	01:25.088	+0.638	12	306.8	Hard / Medium	1:25.378	+0.66%	4	Medium
15	Bradley Smith	01:25.095	+0.645	17	308.5	Medium / Soft	1:25.505	+0.81%	9	Soft
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:25.167	+0.717	17	307.6	Medium / Medium	1:25.516	+0.82%	6	Medium
17	Alex Marquez	01:25.208	+0.758	17	306.8	Medium / Soft	1:25.421	+0.71%	7	Soft
18	Iker Lecuona	01:25.399	+0.949	14	305.9	Hard / Medium	1:25.572	+0.89%	6	Medium
19	Stefan Bradl	01:25.626	+1.176	18	308.5	Medium / Soft	1:25.926	+1.30%	14	Soft
20	Tito Rabat	01:25.890	+1.440	18	305.0	Medium / Medium	1:26.194	+1.62%	14	Medium
Retired	Jack Miller		—	0	0.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Q1 · 22.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Johann Zarco	01:23.609	—	9	309.4	Medium / Soft
2	Danilo Petrucci	01:23.772	+0.163	9	306.8	Medium / Soft
3	Iker Lecuona	01:23.928	+0.319	9	304.2	Hard / Soft
4	Brad Binder	01:23.932	+0.323	8	307.6	Hard / Soft
5	Valentino Rossi	01:24.127	+0.518	8	303.3	Medium / Soft
6	Michele Pirro	01:24.273	+0.664	8	310.3	Medium / Soft
7	Alex Marquez	01:24.370	+0.761	9	309.4	Medium / Soft
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:24.401	+0.792	8	308.5	Medium / Soft
9	Bradley Smith	01:24.416	+0.807	9	308.5	Medium / Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:24.429	+0.820	8	306.8	Medium / Soft
11	Stefan Bradl	01:24.667	+1.058	9	311.2	Medium / Soft
12	Tito Rabat	01:24.916	+1.307	9	305.0	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 22.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Pol Espargaro	01:23.580	—	9	311.2	— / —
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:23.602	+0.022	9	310.3	— / —
3	Johann Zarco	01:23.632	+0.052	8	313.0	Medium / Soft
4	Joan Mir	01:23.678	+0.098	9	308.5	Medium / Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:23.700	+0.120	7	314.8	Soft / Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	01:23.778	+0.198	9	306.8	Medium / Soft
7	Alex Rins	01:23.782	+0.202	9	310.3	— / —
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:23.797	+0.217	9	310.3	— / —
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:23.849	+0.269	9	313.0	Medium / Soft
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:23.866	+0.286	9	305.9	Medium / Soft
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:24.021	+0.441	9	304.2	Hard / Medium
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:24.174	+0.594	9	310.3	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 23.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:24.126	—	14	315.7	Soft / Medium	1:24.942	+0.34%	11	Medium
2	Joan Mir	01:24.312	+0.186	14	307.6	Medium / Medium	1:24.701	+0.05%	10	Medium
3	Takaaki Nakagami	01:24.353	+0.227	13	310.3	Soft / Soft	1:24.655	—	7	Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:24.364	+0.238	6	311.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Maverick Viñales	01:24.509	+0.383	13	305.0	Medium / Soft	1:24.695	+0.05%	9	Soft
6	Jack Miller	01:24.540	+0.414	11	310.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:24.627	+0.501	14	309.4	Medium / Medium	1:24.820	+0.20%	10	Medium
8	Valentino Rossi	01:24.654	+0.528	14	303.3	Medium / Soft	1:24.872	+0.26%	10	Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:24.682	+0.556	14	302.5	Medium / Medium	1:25.348	+0.82%	9	Medium
10	Brad Binder	01:24.729	+0.603	14	306.8	Medium / Soft	1:25.025	+0.44%	9	Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	01:24.758	+0.632	13	309.4	Medium / Soft	1:25.297	+0.76%	8	Soft
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:24.793	+0.667	14	310.3	Medium / Medium	1:24.992	+0.40%	10	Medium
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:24.836	+0.710	13	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:25.302	+0.76%	6	Soft
14	Alex Rins	01:24.855	+0.729	6	305.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Bradley Smith	01:24.935	+0.809	13	312.1	Medium / Soft	1:25.352	+0.82%	10	Soft
16	Alex Marquez	01:24.935	+0.809	14	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:25.277	+0.74%	10	Soft
17	Michele Pirro	01:24.974	+0.848	13	309.4	Soft / Medium	1:26.570	+2.26%	8	Medium
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:24.999	+0.873	14	307.6	Medium / Medium	1:25.409	+0.89%	10	Medium
19	Iker Lecuona	01:25.023	+0.897	14	301.6	Medium / Soft	1:25.324	+0.79%	11	Soft
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:25.222	+1.096	12	308.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Tito Rabat	01:25.404	+1.278	12	307.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Stefan Bradl	01:25.495	+1.369	11	305.0	Medium / Soft	1:25.844	+1.41%	5	Soft

Race (RAC2) · 23.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Miguel Oliveira	16:56.025	25	12	Hard / Medium	1:24.268	+0.10%	10	Medium
2	Jack Miller	+0.316	20	12	Soft / Soft	1:24.276	+0.11%	9	Soft
3	Pol Espargaro	+0.540	16	12	Hard / Medium	1:24.188	—	8	Medium
4	Joan Mir	+0.641	13	12	Medium / Medium	1:24.410	+0.26%	10	Medium
5	Andrea Dovizioso	+1.414	11	12	Soft / Soft	1:24.225	+0.04%	9	Soft
6	Alex Rins	+1.450	10	12	Medium / Medium	1:24.322	+0.16%	8	Medium
7	Takaaki Nakagami	+1.864	9	12	Medium / Soft	1:24.382	+0.23%	10	Soft
8	Brad Binder	+4.150	8	12	Medium / Medium	1:24.288	+0.12%	8	Medium
9	Valentino Rossi	+4.517	7	12	Soft / Soft	1:24.561	+0.44%	9	Soft
10	Iker Lecuona	+5.068	6	12	Hard / Medium	1:24.621	+0.51%	10	Medium
11	Danilo Petrucci	+5.918	5	12	Medium / Soft	1:24.655	+0.56%	9	Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	+6.411	4	12	Medium / Soft	1:24.640	+0.54%	10	Soft
13	Fabio Quartararo	+7.406	3	12	Medium / Soft	1:24.661	+0.56%	10	Soft
14	Johann Zarco	+7.454	2	12	Medium / Soft	1:24.583	+0.47%	10	Soft
15	Franco Morbidelli	+10.191	1	12	Medium / Soft	1:24.880	+0.82%	10	Soft
16	Alex Marquez	+10.524	0	12	Soft / Medium	1:25.042	+1.01%	10	Medium
17	Cal Crutchlow	+11.447	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:24.888	+0.83%	9	Soft
18	Stefan Bradl	+11.943	0	12	Soft / Medium	1:25.152	+1.15%	9	Medium
19	Bradley Smith	+12.732	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:25.126	+1.11%	10	Soft
20	Michele Pirro	+14.349	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:25.332	+1.36%	9	Soft
21	Tito Rabat	+14.548	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:25.297	+1.32%	10	Soft
—	Maverick Viñales		0	0	— / —	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:24.289	—	+0.292	Medium	5
Alex Rins	1:24.522	+0.233	+0.217	Medium	21
Jack Miller	1:24.626	+0.337	+0.105	Medium	7
Joan Mir	1:24.664	+0.375	+0.562	Medium	16
Fabio Quartararo	1:24.821	+0.532	+0.275	Medium	20
Andrea Dovizioso	1:24.834	+0.545	+0.226	Medium	10
Aleix Espargaro	1:24.874	+0.585	+0.209	Medium	7
Valentino Rossi	1:24.880	+0.591	+0.508	Medium	19
Bradley Smith	1:24.910*	+0.621	+0.085	Medium	4
Franco Morbidelli	1:24.996	+0.707	+0.512	Medium	6
Takaaki Nakagami	1:25.012	+0.723	+0.359	Medium	5
Michele Pirro	1:25.149	+0.860	+0.267	Medium	10
Danilo Petrucci	1:25.162	+0.873	+0.574	Medium	16
Miguel Oliveira	1:25.190	+0.901	+0.193	Medium	15
Cal Crutchlow	1:25.222	+0.933	+0.729	Medium	5
Brad Binder	1:25.629*	+1.340	+0.327	Medium	4
Stefan Bradl	1:25.962	+1.673	+0.530	Medium	7
Tito Rabat	1:26.136	+1.847	+0.229	Medium	8

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Brad Binder	59%	4
2	Johann Zarco	44%	1 ✓
3	Danilo Petrucci	32%	2 ✓
4	Iker Lecuona	19%	3
5	Valentino Rossi	17%	5
6	Cal Crutchlow	9%	8
7	Bradley Smith	9%	9
8	Michele Pirro	4%	6
9	Aleix Espargaro	2%	10
10	Alex Marquez	3%	7
11	Stefan Bradl	2%	11
12	Tito Rabat	1%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Joan Mir	39%	71%	91%	4
2	Fabio Quartararo	25%	52%	85%	10
3	Takaaki Nakagami	17%	49%	82%	2
4	Andrea Dovizioso	4%	33%	69%	9
5	Maverick Viñales	3%	29%	55%	6
6	Pol Espargaro	6%	22%	55%	1
7	Miguel Oliveira	1%	11%	43%	8
8	Franco Morbidelli	2%	12%	36%	11
9	Alex Rins	1%	7%	29%	7
10	Jack Miller	2%	7%	20%	5
11	Johann Zarco	1%	7%	22%	3
12	Danilo Petrucci	0%	3%	15%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Johann Zarco	3	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Pol Espargaro	1	29%	57%	70%	78%	21%	3
Takaaki Nakagami	2	24%	56%	74%	87%	12%	7
Joan Mir	3	14%	42%	59%	75%	23%	4
Jack Miller	4	10%	33%	51%	70%	25%	2
Maverick Viñales	5	7%	29%	53%	81%	12%	—
Alex Rins	6	5%	22%	42%	73%	21%	6
Miguel Oliveira	7	4%	20%	38%	74%	16%	1
Andrea Dovizioso	8	3%	15%	35%	75%	12%	5
Fabio Quartararo	9	2%	8%	22%	65%	18%	13
Franco Morbidelli	10	1%	6%	16%	58%	23%	15
Danilo Petrucci	11	1%	5%	13%	54%	21%	11
Iker Lecuona	12	0%	2%	6%	31%	47%	10
Brad Binder	13	0%	2%	6%	39%	22%	8
Valentino Rossi	14	0%	2%	5%	40%	10%	9
Michele Pirro	15	0%	1%	4%	28%	21%	20
Alex Marquez	16	0%	1%	3%	25%	12%	16
Cal Crutchlow	17	0%	0%	2%	14%	28%	17
Bradley Smith	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	14%	19
Aleix Espargaro	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	26%	12
Stefan Bradl	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	21%	18
Tito Rabat	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	18%	21
Johann Zarco	22	0%	0%	0%	4%	16%	14

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,347 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%	Pol Espargaro +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.39%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%	Joan Mir +0.45%	Maverick Viñales +0.48%
S3	Joan Mir +0.04%	Alex Rins +0.31%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.48%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.18%	Joan Mir +0.23%	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%	Johann Zarco +0.39%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%	Joan Mir +0.43%
S3	Joan Mir	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.45%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.09%	Joan Mir +0.36%	Maverick Viñales +0.68%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.08%	Miguel Oliveira +0.23%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.27%
S2	Jack Miller +0.12%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.37%	Pol Espargaro +0.46%
S3	Joan Mir +0.07%	Alex Rins +0.12%	Pol Espargaro +0.34%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami	Joan Mir +0.23%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.26%

Fastest per sector: 2020

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

Pending · no data yet

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	70	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	67	−3
3	Jack Miller	56	−14
4	Brad Binder	49	−21
5	Maverick Viñales	48	−22
6	Takaaki Nakagami	46	−24

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2021Jorge MartinDucati
2020Miguel OliveiraKTM

Attrition here

Average here 11% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2021	4/22	18%
2020	1/22	5%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet