Round 8 of 15 Aftermath

Emilia Romagna Grand Prix 2020

Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli Italy

4.226 m · 27 laps · since 1980

20.09 – 20.09.2020

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	41:55.846	25
2	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+2.425	20
3	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+4.528	16
4	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+6.419	13
5	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+7.368	11
6	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+11.139	10
7	Alex Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+11.929	9
8	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+13.113	8
9	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+15.880	7
10	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Ducati Team	+17.682	6
11	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+23.144	5
12	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+24.962	4
13	Bradley Smith	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+30.008	3
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	Retired	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Maverick Viñales · 32% ✓	Maverick Viñales · 32% · from P1	0.64 / 0.64	2.6 / 2.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.653	—	+0.221	Soft	18
Maverick Viñales	1:32.768	+0.115	+0.292	Medium	24
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.828	+0.175	+0.275	Medium	21
Joan Mir	1:32.868	+0.215	+0.562	Medium	25
Pol Espargaro	1:32.883	+0.230	+0.406	Soft	25
Miguel Oliveira	1:33.069	+0.416	+0.193	Medium	25
Takaaki Nakagami	1:33.150	+0.497	+0.359	Soft	25
Iker Lecuona	1:33.158	+0.505	+0.094	Medium	22
Alex Marquez	1:33.227	+0.574	+0.356	Medium	23
Andrea Dovizioso	1:33.285	+0.632	+0.226	missing	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:33.347	+0.694	+0.512	Soft	25
Valentino Rossi	1:33.348	+0.695	+0.508	Medium	11
Danilo Petrucci	1:33.431	+0.778	+0.574	Soft	24
Johann Zarco	1:33.622	+0.969	+0.344	Hard	25
Jack Miller	1:33.757	+1.104	+0.105	missing	4
Alex Rins	1:33.797	+1.144	+0.217	Soft	23
Bradley Smith	1:33.838	+1.185	+0.085	Soft	25
Tito Rabat	1:34.032	+1.379	+0.229	Soft	10

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

12/27

Laps led by the winner

Maverick Viñales

2.425 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Marquez, from P17 to P7.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Andrea Dovizioso (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:16		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:01:18	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:32	Aleix Espargaro	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:02:32	Valentino Rossi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:03:23	Brad Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:06:08	Brad Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:13:12	Jack Miller	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:20:15	Tito Rabat	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:25:56	Valentino Rossi	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:32:13	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:39:43	Iker Lecuona	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:40:37	Fabio Quartararo	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:43:06	Fabio Quartararo	Time penalty	3 seconds penalty

Race: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Maverick Viñales (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Marquez	17	11	+6
Iker Lecuona	13	10	+3
Miguel Oliveira	15	12	+3
Franco Morbidelli	8	19	−11
Andrea Dovizioso	10	13	−3
Takaaki Nakagami	12	14	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Joan Mir	11→2	+7.3
Miguel Oliveira	15→5	+6.8
Alex Marquez	17→7	+6.1
Fabio Quartararo	3→4	+0.1
Franco Morbidelli	8→9	−1.7
Danilo Petrucci	9→10	−2.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	53%	+0.84%	−0.008	0	1	8.8
Medium	41%	+0.45%	−0.004	1	2	3.8
Hard	6%	+1.05%	+0.014	0	0	11.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

24.0 °C

Air

max 24.4 °C

62%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

14 km/h

Wind

gusts 46 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 18.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.721	—	21	289.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.785	+0.24%	9	Hard
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.811	+0.090	19	291.1	Medium / Hard	1:32.815	+0.27%	5	Hard
3	Pol Espargaro	01:31.841	+0.120	20	296.7	Hard / Medium	1:32.564	—	5	Hard
4	Joan Mir	01:31.926	+0.205	15	291.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.965	+0.244	21	295.0	Medium / Soft	1:33.228	+0.72%	5	Hard
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.102	+0.381	21	294.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.152	+0.431	20	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:33.375	+0.88%	6	Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:32.170	+0.449	20	293.4	Medium / Medium	1:33.215	+0.70%	6	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.185	+0.464	17	293.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.410	+0.689	18	298.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.435	+0.714	23	295.8	Hard / Hard	1:33.187	+0.67%	11	Medium
12	Alex Marquez	01:32.437	+0.716	21	295.8	Medium / Medium	1:33.257	+0.75%	5	Medium
13	Maverick Viñales	01:32.589	+0.868	21	289.5	Soft / Hard	1:32.788	+0.24%	7	Hard
14	Brad Binder	01:32.611	+0.890	18	292.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Jack Miller	01:32.627	+0.906	20	295.8	Medium / Hard	1:33.270	+0.76%	10	Hard
16	Alex Rins	01:32.634	+0.913	19	291.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Valentino Rossi	01:32.832	+1.111	22	288.0	Medium / Hard	1:33.439	+0.95%	5	Hard
18	Bradley Smith	01:33.101	+1.380	21	291.8	Hard / Soft	1:34.033	+1.59%	7	Medium
19	Iker Lecuona	01:33.183	+1.462	23	290.3	Medium / Hard	1:33.677	+1.20%	16	Hard
20	Stefan Bradl	01:33.384	+1.663	21	290.3	Medium / Soft	1:34.614	+2.22%	6	Medium
21	Tito Rabat	01:33.496	+1.775	24	292.6	Medium / Medium	1:34.254	+1.83%	14	Medium

FP2 · 18.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Brad Binder	01:31.628	—	21	294.2	Hard / Soft	1:33.084	+1.17%	4	Soft
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.630	+0.002	21	295.0	Medium / Soft	1:32.730	+0.79%	9	Medium
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.644	+0.016	24	288.7	Hard / Medium	1:32.581	+0.63%	15	Medium
4	Maverick Viñales	01:31.669	+0.041	20	291.1	Medium / Soft	1:32.934	+1.01%	5	Medium
5	Pol Espargaro	01:31.699	+0.071	20	298.3	Hard / Soft	1:32.006	—	6	Soft
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.973	+0.345	22	295.8	Hard / Soft	1:33.318	+1.43%	8	Hard
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.032	+0.404	20	295.8	Hard / Medium	1:32.700	+0.75%	10	Medium
8	Johann Zarco	01:32.072	+0.444	21	294.2	Hard / Soft	1:33.565	+1.69%	6	Medium
9	Joan Mir	01:32.126	+0.498	21	291.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.849	+0.92%	5	Hard
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.138	+0.510	16	297.5	Hard / Medium	—			—
11	Iker Lecuona	01:32.238	+0.610	20	289.5	Hard / Soft	1:33.470	+1.59%	6	Medium
12	Valentino Rossi	01:32.263	+0.635	21	288.7	Hard / Soft	1:33.256	+1.36%	12	Medium
13	Jack Miller	01:32.279	+0.651	24	297.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.991	+1.07%	15	Medium
14	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.307	+0.679	19	288.0	Hard / Medium	1:32.791	+0.85%	10	Medium
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.339	+0.711	18	291.8	Hard / Medium	—			—
16	Alex Marquez	01:32.369	+0.741	22	296.7	Hard / Soft	1:33.448	+1.57%	10	Hard
17	Alex Rins	01:32.407	+0.779	19	293.4	Hard / Medium	1:33.731	+1.88%	5	Soft
18	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.692	+1.064	21	295.0	Hard / Medium	1:33.108	+1.20%	11	Medium
19	Tito Rabat	01:32.788	+1.160	24	293.4	Hard / Soft	1:33.758	+1.90%	9	Medium
20	Bradley Smith	01:32.916	+1.288	23	292.6	Hard / Medium	1:33.722	+1.87%	13	Soft
Retired	Stefan Bradl		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP3 · 19.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.127	—	15	301.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:31.185	+0.058	19	293.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.359	+0.232	20	291.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.857	+0.36%	5	Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.429	+0.302	20	291.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
5	Joan Mir	01:31.626	+0.499	22	295.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Valentino Rossi	01:31.680	+0.553	23	288.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.701	+0.574	19	298.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.753	+0.626	21	294.2	Medium / Soft	1:33.271	+0.81%	6	Soft
9	Jack Miller	01:31.760	+0.633	17	301.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Johann Zarco	01:31.826	+0.699	21	297.5	Hard / Soft	1:32.964	+0.48%	5	Soft
11	Brad Binder	01:31.860	+0.733	21	295.0	Hard / Soft	1:32.988	+0.50%	5	Medium
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.890	+0.763	17	295.8	Hard / Soft	1:32.717	+0.21%	5	Medium
13	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.894	+0.767	22	298.3	Medium / Soft	1:33.365	+0.91%	7	Hard
14	Pol Espargaro	01:31.962	+0.835	14	298.3	Hard / Soft	1:32.524	—	5	Medium
15	Iker Lecuona	01:32.229	+1.102	19	295.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.260	+1.133	16	296.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Alex Rins	01:32.292	+1.165	21	295.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Alex Marquez	01:32.378	+1.251	21	297.5	Medium / Soft	1:33.089	+0.61%	7	Soft
19	Bradley Smith	01:33.021	+1.894	19	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.661	+1.23%	5	Medium
20	Tito Rabat	01:33.048	+1.921	20	296.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Stefan Bradl		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP4 · 19.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.005	—	10	299.1	Hard / Soft	1:32.258	+0.05%	7	Soft
2	Joan Mir	01:32.103	+0.098	18	291.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.380	+0.18%	7	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:32.124	+0.119	19	289.5	Hard / Medium	1:32.361	+0.16%	13	Medium
4	Pol Espargaro	01:32.145	+0.140	17	295.0	Hard / Soft	1:32.213	—	7	Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.295	+0.290	15	285.7	Hard / Medium	1:32.538	+0.35%	11	Medium
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.348	+0.343	17	295.8	Hard / Soft	1:33.106	+0.97%	7	Hard
7	Alex Marquez	01:32.382	+0.377	16	296.7	Hard / Medium	1:33.542	+1.44%	7	Soft
8	Iker Lecuona	01:32.425	+0.420	12	291.8	Hard / Medium	—			—
9	Brad Binder	01:32.518	+0.513	14	291.8	Hard / Medium	1:32.807	+0.64%	5	Medium
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.545	+0.540	14	294.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.553	+0.548	16	288.0	Hard / Soft	1:32.792	+0.63%	7	Soft
12	Valentino Rossi	01:32.558	+0.553	16	286.4	Hard / Medium	1:32.678	+0.50%	5	Medium
13	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.603	+0.598	13	298.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Johann Zarco	01:32.605	+0.600	15	295.0	Hard / Hard	1:33.624	+1.53%	6	Hard
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.638	+0.633	14	290.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.921	+0.77%	8	Soft
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.815	+0.810	12	291.8	Hard / Soft	1:33.051	+0.91%	5	Soft
17	Alex Rins	01:32.923	+0.918	12	294.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Jack Miller	01:33.097	+1.092	15	297.5	Hard / Medium	1:33.436	+1.33%	10	Medium
19	Tito Rabat	01:33.502	+1.497	19	294.2	Hard / Soft	1:33.699	+1.61%	16	Soft
20	Bradley Smith	01:33.977	+1.972	11	289.5	Hard / Soft	1:34.435	+2.41%	7	Soft

Q1 · 19.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jack Miller	01:31.559	—	8	300.0	Medium / Soft
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.612	+0.053	9	297.5	Hard / Soft
3	Iker Lecuona	01:31.715	+0.156	9	291.8	Hard / Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:31.764	+0.205	9	294.2	Hard / Soft
5	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.841	+0.282	8	294.2	Hard / Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.912	+0.353	6	291.8	Hard / Soft
7	Alex Marquez	01:32.198	+0.639	8	293.4	Hard / Soft
8	Alex Rins	01:32.275	+0.716	9	293.4	Medium / Soft
9	Bradley Smith	01:32.486	+0.927	8	290.3	Medium / Soft
10	Tito Rabat	01:32.850	+1.291	9	295.8	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 19.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Maverick Viñales	01:31.077	—	9	291.1	Medium / Soft
2	Jack Miller	01:31.153	+0.076	8	301.6	Hard / Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.222	+0.145	8	291.1	Hard / Soft
4	Pol Espargaro	01:31.308	+0.231	9	298.3	Hard / Soft
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.313	+0.236	7	302.5	Hard / Soft
6	Brad Binder	01:31.389	+0.312	9	293.4	Hard / Soft
7	Valentino Rossi	01:31.436	+0.359	7	289.5	Hard / Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.566	+0.489	9	290.3	Medium / Soft
9	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.574	+0.497	9	298.3	Hard / Soft
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.581	+0.504	9	300.0	Hard / Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:31.617	+0.540	9	292.6	Medium / Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.284	+1.207	4	292.6	Hard / Soft

Warm Up · 20.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	01:32.402	—	13	298.3	Medium / Medium	1:33.044	+0.39%	8	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:32.412	+0.010	13	294.2	Medium / Soft	1:32.776	+0.10%	8	Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.479	+0.077	13	289.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.501	+0.099	11	290.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.685	—	7	Soft
5	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.628	+0.226	12	295.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.162	+0.52%	6	Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.686	+0.284	11	295.0	Hard / Soft	1:38.749	+6.54%	5	Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:32.825	+0.423	11	291.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Pol Espargaro	01:32.845	+0.443	11	295.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.853	+1.26%	5	Soft
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.863	+0.461	12	300.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.480	+0.86%	8	Soft
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.870	+0.468	10	300.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.934	+0.532	13	294.2	Medium / Soft	1:33.364	+0.73%	10	Soft
12	Valentino Rossi	01:32.936	+0.534	13	288.7	Medium / Soft	1:33.356	+0.72%	9	Soft
13	Brad Binder	01:33.002	+0.600	10	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:33.307	+0.67%	5	Soft
14	Alex Rins	01:33.034	+0.632	12	294.2	Medium / Soft	1:33.401	+0.77%	7	Soft
15	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.161	+0.759	12	298.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Johann Zarco	01:33.177	+0.775	12	295.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.830	+1.24%	6	Soft
17	Iker Lecuona	01:33.349	+0.947	11	291.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.463	+0.84%	5	Soft
18	Bradley Smith	01:33.394	+0.992	13	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.560	+0.94%	9	Soft
19	Tito Rabat	01:33.442	+1.040	13	298.3	Medium / Soft	1:35.342	+2.87%	8	Soft
20	Jack Miller	01:33.671	+1.269	9	297.5	Medium / Soft	—			—

Race · 20.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	41:55.846	25	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.768	+0.12%	24	Medium
2	Joan Mir	+2.425	20	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.868	+0.23%	25	Medium
3	Pol Espargaro	+4.528	16	27	Hard / Soft	1:32.883	+0.25%	25	Soft
4	Fabio Quartararo	+6.419	13	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.828	+0.19%	21	Medium
5	Miguel Oliveira	+7.368	11	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.069	+0.45%	25	Medium
6	Takaaki Nakagami	+11.139	10	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.150	+0.54%	25	Soft
7	Alex Marquez	+11.929	9	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.227	+0.62%	23	Medium
8	Andrea Dovizioso	+13.113	8	27	Hard / missing	1:33.285	+0.68%	23	missing
9	Franco Morbidelli	+15.880	7	27	Hard / Soft	1:33.347	+0.75%	25	Soft
10	Danilo Petrucci	+17.682	6	27	Hard / Soft	1:33.431	+0.84%	24	Soft
11	Johann Zarco	+23.144	5	27	Hard / Hard	1:33.622	+1.05%	25	Hard
12	Alex Rins	+24.962	4	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.797	+1.24%	23	Soft
13	Bradley Smith	+30.008	3	27	Hard / Soft	1:33.838	+1.28%	25	Soft
Out on lap 1	Aleix Espargaro		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Brad Binder		0	3	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	20	Hard / Soft	1:32.653	—	18	Soft
Retired	Iker Lecuona		0	24	Hard / Medium	1:33.158	+0.55%	22	Medium
Retired	Jack Miller		0	7	Hard / missing	1:33.757	+1.19%	4	missing
Retired	Tito Rabat		0	12	Hard / Soft	1:34.032	+1.49%	10	Soft
Retired	Valentino Rossi		0	15	Hard / Medium	1:33.348	+0.75%	11	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Joan Mir	1:32.518	—	+0.562	Medium	11
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.807*	+0.289	+0.275	Medium	3
Franco Morbidelli	1:33.020*	+0.502	+0.512	Medium	4
Bradley Smith	1:33.661	+1.143	+0.085	Medium	7

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Jack Miller	58%	1 ✓
2	Johann Zarco	44%	4
3	Aleix Espargaro	33%	6
4	Andrea Dovizioso	18%	2 ✓
5	Miguel Oliveira	17%	5
6	Iker Lecuona	9%	3
7	Alex Rins	9%	8
8	Alex Marquez	4%	7
9	Tito Rabat	2%	10
10	Bradley Smith	3%	9

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Francesco Bagnaia	38%	70%	91%	5
2	Maverick Viñales	25%	52%	84%	1
3	Fabio Quartararo	17%	50%	82%	3
4	Franco Morbidelli	4%	33%	69%	8
5	Joan Mir	3%	28%	55%	11
6	Brad Binder	7%	22%	55%	6
7	Takaaki Nakagami	1%	11%	43%	12
8	Valentino Rossi	2%	11%	36%	7
9	Pol Espargaro	1%	8%	29%	4
10	Danilo Petrucci	2%	7%	21%	9
11	Jack Miller	1%	8%	23%	2
12	Andrea Dovizioso	0%	3%	15%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Maverick Viñales	1	32%	62%	76%	86%	13%	1
Jack Miller	2	20%	46%	62%	73%	25%	—
Fabio Quartararo	3	14%	43%	60%	76%	20%	4
Pol Espargaro	4	12%	36%	56%	76%	21%	3
Francesco Bagnaia	5	6%	25%	43%	66%	30%	—
Brad Binder	6	6%	25%	47%	75%	18%	—
Valentino Rossi	7	5%	20%	41%	81%	10%	—
Franco Morbidelli	8	2%	13%	30%	67%	22%	9
Danilo Petrucci	9	1%	9%	23%	65%	20%	10
Andrea Dovizioso	10	1%	7%	19%	66%	12%	8
Joan Mir	11	1%	5%	13%	53%	21%	2
Takaaki Nakagami	12	0%	3%	10%	52%	11%	6
Iker Lecuona	13	0%	2%	6%	30%	40%	—
Johann Zarco	14	0%	2%	5%	35%	16%	11
Miguel Oliveira	15	0%	1%	4%	30%	15%	5
Aleix Espargaro	16	0%	1%	2%	20%	25%	—
Alex Marquez	17	0%	1%	2%	18%	10%	7
Alex Rins	18	0%	0%	1%	13%	20%	12
Bradley Smith	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	14%	13
Tito Rabat	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	19%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,218 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.41%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.58%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%	Maverick Viñales +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.50%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Jorge Martin +0.34%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Franco Morbidelli +0.52%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jack Miller +0.63%	Miguel Oliveira +1.09%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.47%	Alex Rins +0.76%
S4	Jack Miller +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.56%	Pol Espargaro +0.79%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Franco Morbidelli +0.30%
S2	Pol Espargaro +0.07%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.40%	Miguel Oliveira +0.50%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.56%
S4	Joan Mir +0.14%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%	Franco Morbidelli +0.56%

Fastest per sector: 2020

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

0/100

Position index

33%

Pole wins

33%

Front row on the podium

0.58

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 100% of the time (between 21% and 100%; 1 cases).

Descriptive, over 3 races (2020–2024). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Andrea Dovizioso	84	—
2	Maverick Viñales	83	−1
3	Fabio Quartararo	83	−1
4	Joan Mir	80	−4
5	Jack Miller	64	−20
6	Franco Morbidelli	64	−20

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2024Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2020Maverick ViñalesYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2024	2/21	10%
2021	8/23	35%
2020	7/20	35%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet