Round 4 of 15 Aftermath

Czech Grand Prix 2020

5.403 m · since 1930

07.08 – 09.08.2020

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	41:38.764	25
2	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+5.266	20
3	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+6.470	16
4	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+6.609	13
5	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+7.517	11
6	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+7.969	10
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+11.827	9
8	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+12.862	8
9	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+15.013	7
10	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+15.087	6
11	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+16.455	5
12	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Ducati Team	+18.506	4
13	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+18.736	3
14	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+19.720	2
15	Alex Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+24.597	1
16	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+29.004	0
17	Bradley Smith	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+32.290	0
18	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+55.977	0
DNF	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Johann Zarco · 31%	Brad Binder · 3% · from P7	0.64 / 0.64	3.7 / 3.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Pol Espargaro	1:58.036	—	+0.406	Medium	7
Brad Binder	1:58.697	+0.661	+0.327	Medium	19
Valentino Rossi	1:58.852	+0.816	+0.508	Medium	19
Johann Zarco	1:58.892	+0.856	+0.344	Soft	19
Miguel Oliveira	1:58.907	+0.871	+0.193	Medium	19
Alex Rins	1:58.932	+0.896	+0.217	Soft	19
Franco Morbidelli	1:59.067	+1.031	+0.512	Soft	19
Cal Crutchlow	1:59.143	+1.107	+0.729	Medium	19
Takaaki Nakagami	1:59.223	+1.187	+0.359	Medium	19
Fabio Quartararo	1:59.344	+1.308	+0.275	Medium	19
Jack Miller	1:59.349	+1.313	+0.105	Soft	19
Andrea Dovizioso	1:59.363	+1.327	+0.226	Soft	19
Danilo Petrucci	1:59.364	+1.328	+0.574	Soft	19
Aleix Espargaro	1:59.520	+1.484	+0.209	Soft	19
Maverick Viñales	1:59.556	+1.520	+0.292	Soft	19
Alex Marquez	1:59.630	+1.594	+0.356	Medium	17
Tito Rabat	1:59.787	+1.751	+0.229	Soft	19
Bradley Smith	2:00.140	+2.104	+0.085	Soft	19
Stefan Bradl	2:00.157	+2.121	+0.530	Medium	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

9/21

Laps led by the winner

Brad Binder

5.266 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Takaaki Nakagami, from P17 to P8.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Jack Miller (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:37		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:08:56	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:08:56	Iker Lecuona	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:18:48	Pol Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:26:13	Johann Zarco	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to irresponsible riding

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Franco Morbidelli (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Takaaki Nakagami	17	11	+6
Alex Rins	11	7	+4
Andrea Dovizioso	18	15	+3
Cal Crutchlow	12	19	−7
Tito Rabat	15	21	−6
Johann Zarco	1	6	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Brad Binder	7→1	+5.7
Alex Rins	11→4	+5.3
Takaaki Nakagami	17→8	+5.1
Danilo Petrucci	8→12	−4.7
Aleix Espargaro	4→10	−5.2
Maverick Viñales	5→14	−8.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	52%	+0.74%	+0.087	1	1	9.1
Soft	48%	+1.12%	+0.104	0	2	9.8

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

28.4 °C

Air

max 28.6 °C

43%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

9 km/h

Wind

gusts 27 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 07.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Takaaki Nakagami	01:57.353	—	17	310.3	Medium / Hard	1:58.320	+0.26%	5	Medium
2	Joan Mir	01:57.364	+0.011	17	308.5	Soft / Hard	1:59.300	+1.09%	5	Medium
3	Pol Espargaro	01:57.392	+0.039	16	313.0	Soft / Medium	1:58.113	+0.08%	5	Medium
4	Johann Zarco	01:57.460	+0.107	18	308.5	Hard / Medium	1:58.785	+0.65%	7	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:57.565	+0.212	14	307.6	Soft / Medium	1:59.575	+1.32%	5	Medium
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:57.632	+0.279	16	313.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:57.638	+0.285	13	310.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
8	Valentino Rossi	01:57.646	+0.293	17	305.9	Hard / Hard	1:59.503	+1.26%	5	Medium
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:57.718	+0.365	18	305.9	Soft / Medium	1:58.014	—	6	Medium
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:57.753	+0.400	17	312.1	Medium / Medium	1:58.339	+0.28%	4	Medium
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:57.789	+0.436	14	308.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Alex Rins	01:57.823	+0.470	14	308.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:57.831	+0.478	18	306.8	Soft / Medium	1:58.182	+0.14%	4	Medium
14	Jack Miller	01:57.836	+0.483	15	311.2	Soft / Hard	—			—
15	Francesco Bagnaia	01:57.839	+0.486	14	310.3	Medium / Medium	1:58.606	+0.50%	5	Medium
16	Brad Binder	01:58.013	+0.660	17	308.5	Soft / Medium	1:59.132	+0.95%	5	Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:58.161	+0.808	17	308.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Alex Marquez	01:58.579	+1.226	18	310.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Tito Rabat	01:58.728	+1.375	15	304.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Bradley Smith	01:58.817	+1.464	14	306.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Iker Lecuona	01:59.136	+1.783	19	306.8	Soft / Medium	1:59.536	+1.29%	8	Medium
22	Stefan Bradl	01:59.193	+1.840	16	308.5	Medium / Medium	—			—

FP2 · 07.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:56.502	—	15	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:57.800	—	5	Hard
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:56.509	+0.007	18	306.8	Medium / Soft	1:57.864	+0.05%	6	Hard
3	Miguel Oliveira	01:56.550	+0.048	17	311.2	Hard / Soft	1:57.890	+0.08%	5	Hard
4	Johann Zarco	01:56.583	+0.081	18	313.0	Hard / Soft	1:58.465	+0.57%	10	Hard
5	Maverick Viñales	01:56.668	+0.166	17	307.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Joan Mir	01:56.876	+0.374	16	308.5	Medium / Soft	1:58.135	+0.28%	5	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:57.041	+0.539	15	312.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
8	Pol Espargaro	01:57.059	+0.557	13	313.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:57.073	+0.571	18	309.4	Hard / Soft	2:01.460	+3.11%	6	Hard
10	Jack Miller	01:57.109	+0.607	17	312.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Brad Binder	01:57.279	+0.777	15	308.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Valentino Rossi	01:57.290	+0.788	19	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:58.727	+0.79%	11	Medium
13	Alex Rins	01:57.354	+0.852	14	309.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:57.620	+1.118	16	312.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Andrea Dovizioso	01:57.635	+1.133	18	313.0	Hard / missing	—			—
16	Alex Marquez	01:57.688	+1.186	16	311.2	Hard / Soft	1:58.222	+0.36%	6	Medium
17	Tito Rabat	01:57.777	+1.275	14	305.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Cal Crutchlow	01:57.865	+1.363	16	312.1	Hard / Hard	—			—
19	Bradley Smith	01:58.161	+1.659	16	309.4	Hard / Hard	—			—
20	Iker Lecuona	01:58.378	+1.876	15	307.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
21	Stefan Bradl	01:58.424	+1.922	17	311.2	Medium / Soft	1:59.370	+1.33%	5	Hard
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP3 · 08.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:56.037	—	15	307.6	Hard / Soft	1:57.733	+0.48%	5	Soft
2	Johann Zarco	01:56.053	+0.016	18	313.0	Hard / Soft	1:57.917	+0.63%	10	Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:56.134	+0.097	18	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:58.078	+0.77%	5	Hard
4	Pol Espargaro	01:56.140	+0.103	13	313.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
5	Valentino Rossi	01:56.150	+0.113	19	306.8	Medium / Soft	1:57.174	—	5	Medium
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:56.183	+0.146	15	311.2	Hard / Soft	1:57.854	+0.58%	5	Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:56.261	+0.224	15	310.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.263	+0.226	16	313.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
9	Maverick Viñales	01:56.282	+0.245	16	308.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Danilo Petrucci	01:56.294	+0.257	15	313.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
11	Alex Rins	01:56.355	+0.318	16	312.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:56.457	+0.420	17	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:57.917	+0.63%	6	Medium
13	Andrea Dovizioso	01:56.521	+0.484	17	316.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Jack Miller	01:56.590	+0.553	17	313.9	Medium / Soft	1:58.294	+0.96%	5	Soft
15	Brad Binder	01:56.730	+0.693	15	310.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
16	Tito Rabat	01:57.031	+0.994	16	308.5	Hard / Soft	1:58.713	+1.31%	6	Medium
17	Bradley Smith	01:57.052	+1.015	17	309.4	Hard / Soft	1:58.080	+0.77%	5	Soft
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:57.071	+1.034	14	311.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
19	Alex Marquez	01:57.335	+1.298	18	312.1	Hard / Soft	1:58.366	+1.02%	6	Soft
20	Stefan Bradl	01:57.509	+1.472	16	312.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
21	Iker Lecuona	01:57.569	+1.532	16	310.3	Hard / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 08.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:56.959	—	13	304.2	Hard / Medium	1:57.134	—	5	Medium
2	Pol Espargaro	01:56.967	+0.008	12	313.0	Hard / Medium	—			—
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:57.437	+0.478	11	305.0	Hard / Medium	1:57.779	+0.55%	5	Medium
4	Alex Rins	01:57.547	+0.588	10	307.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
5	Valentino Rossi	01:57.751	+0.792	11	309.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:57.844	+0.885	13	314.8	Hard / Medium	—			—
7	Joan Mir	01:57.919	+0.960	14	308.5	Medium / Medium	1:58.378	+1.06%	6	Medium
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:57.979	+1.020	10	310.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
9	Brad Binder	01:58.002	+1.043	13	312.1	Hard / Medium	1:58.406	+1.09%	5	Medium
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:58.032	+1.073	13	308.5	Hard / Medium	1:58.338	+1.03%	5	Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:58.085	+1.126	11	305.9	Hard / Medium	—			—
12	Johann Zarco	01:58.106	+1.147	13	310.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
13	Maverick Viñales	01:58.125	+1.166	12	306.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Jack Miller	01:58.231	+1.272	12	315.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Alex Marquez	01:58.366	+1.407	11	309.4	Hard / Medium	1:59.006	+1.60%	6	Soft
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:58.370	+1.411	12	311.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
17	Tito Rabat	01:58.374	+1.415	13	308.5	Hard / Soft	1:59.346	+1.89%	5	Soft
18	Iker Lecuona	01:58.433	+1.474	10	305.0	Hard / Medium	—			—
19	Cal Crutchlow	01:58.513	+1.554	12	310.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
20	Bradley Smith	01:58.536	+1.577	11	306.8	Hard / Hard	—			—
21	Stefan Bradl	01:59.448	+2.489	13	311.2	Hard / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 08.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Alex Rins	01:56.230	—	7	309.4	Hard / Soft
2	Brad Binder	01:56.291	+0.061	7	310.3	Hard / Soft
3	Miguel Oliveira	01:56.328	+0.098	7	309.4	Hard / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:56.352	+0.122	6	312.1	Medium / Soft
5	Tito Rabat	01:56.695	+0.465	7	311.2	Hard / Soft
6	Iker Lecuona	01:56.764	+0.534	7	310.3	Hard / Soft
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:56.822	+0.592	7	308.5	Hard / Soft
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:57.034	+0.804	7	314.8	Hard / Soft
9	Bradley Smith	01:57.438	+1.208	4	307.6	Hard / Soft
10	Stefan Bradl	01:57.573	+1.343	7	313.0	Hard / Soft
11	Alex Marquez	01:57.606	+1.376	7	312.1	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 08.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Johann Zarco	01:55.687	—	7	315.7	Hard / Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:55.990	+0.303	6	305.9	Hard / Soft
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:55.998	+0.311	7	308.5	Hard / Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:56.074	+0.387	7	312.1	Hard / Soft
5	Maverick Viñales	01:56.131	+0.444	7	306.8	Medium / Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	01:56.142	+0.455	6	314.8	Hard / Soft
7	Brad Binder	01:56.299	+0.612	6	313.9	Hard / Medium
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:56.454	+0.767	6	314.8	Hard / Soft
9	Joan Mir	01:56.512	+0.825	7	310.3	Medium / Soft
10	Valentino Rossi	01:56.515	+0.828	7	307.6	Medium / Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:56.571	+0.884	4	311.2	Hard / Soft
12	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.797	+1.110	4	313.9	Hard / Soft

Warm Up · 09.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Pol Espargaro	01:57.037	—	10	312.1	Hard / Medium	1:57.462	+0.02%	7	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:57.062	+0.025	10	305.9	Hard / Soft	1:57.726	+0.24%	8	Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:57.074	+0.037	10	307.6	Hard / Medium	1:57.769	+0.28%	8	Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:57.137	+0.100	11	305.0	Hard / Soft	1:57.439	—	9	Soft
5	Brad Binder	01:57.163	+0.126	10	307.6	Hard / Medium	1:57.547	+0.09%	8	Medium
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:57.184	+0.147	10	307.6	Medium / Medium	1:57.602	+0.14%	6	Medium
7	Jack Miller	01:57.356	+0.319	10	311.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Joan Mir	01:57.378	+0.341	10	308.5	Hard / Medium	1:57.664	+0.19%	8	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:57.420	+0.383	10	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:58.182	+0.63%	8	Soft
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:57.520	+0.483	11	314.8	Hard / Soft	1:57.971	+0.45%	9	Soft
11	Iker Lecuona	01:57.548	+0.511	10	306.8	Hard / Medium	1:58.042	+0.51%	7	Medium
12	Valentino Rossi	01:57.578	+0.541	11	305.0	Hard / Soft	1:57.957	+0.44%	9	Soft
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:57.677	+0.640	10	312.1	Hard / Soft	1:58.260	+0.70%	8	Soft
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:57.717	+0.680	10	310.3	Hard / Medium	1:57.989	+0.47%	7	Medium
15	Johann Zarco	01:57.767	+0.730	10	309.4	Hard / Soft	1:58.516	+0.92%	7	Soft
16	Bradley Smith	01:57.792	+0.755	10	308.5	Hard / Medium	1:58.357	+0.78%	8	Medium
17	Cal Crutchlow	01:58.040	+1.003	10	309.4	Medium / Soft	1:58.618	+1.00%	6	Soft
18	Alex Marquez	01:58.389	+1.352	10	311.2	Hard / Medium	1:59.696	+1.92%	8	Medium
19	Tito Rabat	01:58.548	+1.511	10	307.6	Hard / Medium	1:58.745	+1.11%	8	Medium
20	Stefan Bradl	01:58.957	+1.920	10	310.3	Hard / Medium	1:59.652	+1.88%	8	Medium
Retired	Alex Rins		—	0	0.0	Hard / Soft	—			—

Race · 09.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Brad Binder	41:38.764	25	21	Hard / Medium	1:58.697	+0.56%	19	Medium
2	Franco Morbidelli	+5.266	20	21	Hard / Soft	1:59.067	+0.87%	19	Soft
3	Johann Zarco	+6.470	16	21	Hard / Soft	1:58.892	+0.73%	19	Soft
4	Alex Rins	+6.609	13	21	Hard / Soft	1:58.932	+0.76%	19	Soft
5	Valentino Rossi	+7.517	11	21	Hard / Medium	1:58.852	+0.69%	19	Medium
6	Miguel Oliveira	+7.969	10	21	Hard / Medium	1:58.907	+0.74%	19	Medium
7	Fabio Quartararo	+11.827	9	21	Hard / Medium	1:59.344	+1.11%	19	Medium
8	Takaaki Nakagami	+12.862	8	21	Hard / Medium	1:59.223	+1.01%	19	Medium
9	Jack Miller	+15.013	7	21	Hard / Soft	1:59.349	+1.11%	19	Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	+15.087	6	21	Hard / Soft	1:59.520	+1.26%	19	Soft
11	Andrea Dovizioso	+16.455	5	21	Hard / Soft	1:59.363	+1.12%	19	Soft
12	Danilo Petrucci	+18.506	4	21	Hard / Soft	1:59.364	+1.13%	19	Soft
13	Cal Crutchlow	+18.736	3	21	Hard / Medium	1:59.143	+0.94%	19	Medium
14	Maverick Viñales	+19.720	2	21	Hard / Soft	1:59.556	+1.29%	19	Soft
15	Alex Marquez	+24.597	1	21	Hard / Medium	1:59.630	+1.35%	17	Medium
16	Tito Rabat	+29.004	0	21	Hard / Soft	1:59.787	+1.48%	19	Soft
17	Bradley Smith	+32.290	0	21	Hard / Soft	2:00.140	+1.78%	19	Soft
18	Stefan Bradl	+55.977	0	21	Hard / Medium	2:00.157	+1.80%	18	Medium
Retired	Iker Lecuona		0	3	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		0	3	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Pol Espargaro		0	9	Hard / Medium	1:58.036	—	7	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Cal Crutchlow	1:57.558*	—	+0.729	Medium	3
Valentino Rossi	1:57.988	+0.430	+0.508	Medium	9
Joan Mir	1:58.228	+0.670	+0.562	Medium	8

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alex Rins	58%	1 ✓
2	Takaaki Nakagami	44%	7
3	Andrea Dovizioso	33%	8
4	Miguel Oliveira	19%	3
5	Jack Miller	17%	4
6	Brad Binder	8%	2 ✓
7	Tito Rabat	9%	5
8	Bradley Smith	4%	9
9	Alex Marquez	2%	11
10	Stefan Bradl	3%	10
11	Iker Lecuona	2%	6

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Franco Morbidelli	39%	71%	91%	3
2	Johann Zarco	24%	52%	84%	1
3	Fabio Quartararo	16%	48%	81%	2
4	Pol Espargaro	4%	34%	70%	6
5	Valentino Rossi	3%	28%	55%	10
6	Aleix Espargaro	6%	22%	56%	4
7	Joan Mir	1%	11%	44%	9
8	Cal Crutchlow	2%	12%	37%	12
9	Maverick Viñales	1%	7%	27%	5
10	Danilo Petrucci	2%	7%	20%	8
11	Alex Rins	1%	7%	23%	11
12	Brad Binder	0%	2%	15%	7

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Johann Zarco	1	31%	61%	75%	83%	15%	3
Fabio Quartararo	2	21%	51%	66%	78%	19%	7
Franco Morbidelli	3	14%	42%	61%	76%	21%	2
Aleix Espargaro	4	10%	34%	51%	70%	26%	10
Maverick Viñales	5	8%	33%	57%	82%	12%	14
Pol Espargaro	6	6%	22%	44%	73%	20%	—
Brad Binder	7	3%	15%	33%	64%	27%	1
Danilo Petrucci	8	3%	14%	31%	68%	21%	12
Joan Mir	9	1%	8%	21%	64%	21%	—
Valentino Rossi	10	1%	7%	19%	67%	10%	5
Alex Rins	11	1%	4%	14%	55%	20%	4
Cal Crutchlow	12	0%	3%	8%	42%	28%	13
Miguel Oliveira	13	0%	2%	8%	45%	13%	6
Jack Miller	14	0%	2%	5%	33%	26%	9
Tito Rabat	15	0%	1%	4%	30%	19%	16
Iker Lecuona	16	0%	0%	2%	15%	46%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	17	0%	0%	1%	17%	12%	8
Andrea Dovizioso	18	0%	0%	1%	14%	12%	11
Bradley Smith	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	14%	17
Stefan Bradl	20	0%	0%	1%	7%	21%	18
Alex Marquez	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	15%	15

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,401 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Ai Ogura +0.25%	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Maverick Viñales +0.47%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Raul Fernandez +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.34%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.46%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.34%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Ai Ogura +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.49%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Raul Fernandez +0.24%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%	Joan Mir +0.42%
S4	Ai Ogura +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Pol Espargaro +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Raul Fernandez +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%
S3	Marc Marquez	Pedro Acosta +0.41%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.21%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro	Alex Rins +0.32%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.40%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.05%	Franco Morbidelli +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.24%
S3	Pol Espargaro +0.06%	Franco Morbidelli +0.21%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%
S4	Pol Espargaro +0.09%	Johann Zarco +0.39%	Franco Morbidelli +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.03%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.30%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.28%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.41%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.10%	Cal Crutchlow +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso	Maverick Viñales +0.36%	Andrea Iannone +0.37%
S2	Marc Marquez	Daniel Pedrosa +0.44%	Valentino Rossi +0.45%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Andrea Iannone +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.25%	Marc Marquez +0.41%	Maverick Viñales +0.48%

Fastest per sector: 2020

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

81/100

Position index

40%

Pole wins

60%

Front row on the podium

0.78

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 100% of the time (between 44% and 100%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 5 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	59	—
2	Maverick Viñales	42	−17
3	Andrea Dovizioso	31	−28
4	Franco Morbidelli	31	−28
5	Johann Zarco	28	−31
6	Brad Binder	28	−31

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2019 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

20/20

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.452 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Iannone, from P23 to P17.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Jack Miller (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2019 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:57.677	—	+0.210	Soft	18
Alex Rins	1:57.697	+0.020	+0.217	Soft	17
Andrea Dovizioso	1:57.762	+0.085	+0.226	Medium	18
Cal Crutchlow	1:57.953	+0.276	+0.729	Soft	18
Jack Miller	1:58.068	+0.391	+0.105	Soft	18
Valentino Rossi	1:58.146	+0.469	+0.508	Soft	18
Danilo Petrucci	1:58.350	+0.673	+0.574	Medium	18
Fabio Quartararo	1:58.353	+0.676	+0.275	Soft	18
Hafizh Syahrin	1:58.444	+0.767	+0.491	Soft	4
Takaaki Nakagami	1:58.487	+0.810	+0.359	Soft	18

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2020Brad BinderKTM
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda
2015Jorge LorenzoYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/20	15%
2025	3/21	14%
2020	3/21	14%
2019	3/23	13%
2018	5/25	20%
2017	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2019 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	86%	+0.80%	+0.098	1	2	10.7
Medium	14%	+0.57%	+0.129	0	1	9.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.