Round 3 of 15 Aftermath

Andalusian Grand Prix 2020

4.428 m · 25 laps · since 1984

24.07 – 26.07.2020

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	41:22.666	25
2	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+4.495	20
3	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+5.546	16
4	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+6.113	13
5	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+7.693	11
6	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+12.554	10
7	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+17.488	9
8	Alex Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+19.357	8
9	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+23.523	7
10	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+27.091	6
11	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+33.628	5
12	Bradley Smith	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+36.306	4
13	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+0.000	3
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Retired	0
DNF	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	Out on lap 1	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 27% ✓	Fabio Quartararo · 27% · from P1	0.80 / 0.80	3.3 / 3.4

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

25/25

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Quartararo

4.495 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Marquez, from P21 to P8.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Danilo Petrucci (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:00:39	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:01:11		Jump start	jump start
Race	14:10:36	Iker Lecuona	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:10:56	Iker Lecuona	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:14:21	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:18:12	Jack Miller	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:19:29	Danilo Petrucci	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:22:22	Brad Binder	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:28:07	Franco Morbidelli	Retired	retired
Race	14:32:06		Red flag	Francesco BAGNAIA black flag with orange disc
Race	14:33:00	Francesco Bagnaia	Retired	retired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Fabio Quartararo (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Marquez	21	13	+8
Aleix Espargaro	16	11	+5
Alex Rins	20	16	+4
Brad Binder	9	20	−11
Cal Crutchlow	13	17	−4
Pol Espargaro	12	14	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Marquez	21→8	+7.7
Andrea Dovizioso	14→6	+5.2
Alex Rins	20→10	+5.0
Valentino Rossi	4→3	+1.8
Maverick Viñales	2→2	+1.5
Cal Crutchlow	13→13	−2.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.40%	+0.029	1	3	7.1

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

38.2 °C

Air

max 39.7 °C

22%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

6 km/h

Wind

gusts 30 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Aleix Espargaro	58%	6
2	Franco Morbidelli	43%	2 ✓
3	Miguel Oliveira	32%	1 ✓
4	Andrea Dovizioso	19%	4
5	Johann Zarco	17%	5
6	Alex Marquez	8%	11
7	Cal Crutchlow	9%	3
8	Tito Rabat	4%	8
9	Iker Lecuona	2%	7
10	Bradley Smith	3%	9
11	Alex Rins	3%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Maverick Viñales	39%	71%	91%	2
2	Fabio Quartararo	24%	51%	84%	1
3	Jack Miller	17%	49%	82%	7
4	Takaaki Nakagami	4%	34%	70%	8
5	Francesco Bagnaia	3%	28%	54%	3
6	Danilo Petrucci	6%	22%	56%	11
7	Brad Binder	1%	11%	44%	9
8	Valentino Rossi	2%	12%	36%	4
9	Pol Espargaro	1%	7%	28%	12
10	Joan Mir	2%	7%	21%	10
11	Franco Morbidelli	1%	7%	22%	6
12	Miguel Oliveira	0%	2%	14%	5

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Marc Marquez	22	—	—	absent del Grid.pdf (pit lane / no surt)

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	27%	54%	69%	79%	20%	1
Maverick Viñales	2	24%	56%	73%	86%	12%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	3	13%	36%	54%	70%	29%	—
Valentino Rossi	4	12%	40%	64%	86%	10%	3
Miguel Oliveira	5	8%	33%	56%	86%	9%	—
Franco Morbidelli	6	5%	23%	42%	74%	19%	—
Jack Miller	7	3%	15%	33%	66%	25%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	8	3%	14%	32%	75%	13%	4
Brad Binder	9	2%	9%	22%	67%	16%	—
Joan Mir	10	1%	6%	16%	55%	22%	5
Danilo Petrucci	11	1%	4%	12%	53%	20%	—
Pol Espargaro	12	1%	3%	9%	46%	20%	7
Cal Crutchlow	13	0%	2%	6%	34%	28%	13
Andrea Dovizioso	14	0%	2%	5%	35%	12%	6
Johann Zarco	15	0%	1%	3%	29%	16%	9
Aleix Espargaro	16	0%	1%	2%	20%	25%	—
Iker Lecuona	17	0%	0%	1%	11%	39%	—
Tito Rabat	18	0%	0%	1%	10%	19%	11
Bradley Smith	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	14%	12
Alex Rins	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	20%	10
Alex Marquez	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	16%	8
Marc Marquez	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	14%	—

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,430 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Brad Binder +0.40%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.13%	Joan Mir +0.26%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.32%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.36%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Brad Binder +0.40%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.13%	Valentino Rossi +0.15%	Joan Mir +0.26%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.36%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%

Fastest per sector: 2020

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	50	—
2	Maverick Viñales	40	−10
3	Andrea Dovizioso	26	−24
4	Takaaki Nakagami	19	−31
5	Pol Espargaro	19	−31
6	Valentino Rossi	16	−34

Full championship →

Winners here

2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 38% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2020	8/21	38%