Round 3 of 19 Aftermath

Grand Prix of the Americas 2019

5.510 m · 20 laps · since 2013

12.04 – 14.04.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	41:45.499	25
2	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+0.462	20
3	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+8.454	16
4	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+9.420	13
5	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+18.021	11
6	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+21.476	10
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+26.111	9
8	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+29.743	8
9	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+30.608	7
10	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+31.011	6
11	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+34.077	5
12	Andrea Iannone	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+34.779	4
13	Johann Zarco	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+42.458	3
14	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+44.272	2
15	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+44.623	1
16	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+44.740	0
17	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+48.063	0
18	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+67.683	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Lorenzo	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 30%	Alex Rins · 4% · from P7	0.80 / 0.80	2.5 / 2.5

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	2:04.366	—	+0.210	Medium	6
Alex Rins	2:05.065	+0.699	+0.217	Medium	18
Valentino Rossi	2:05.164	+0.798	+0.508	Medium	18
Maverick Viñales	2:05.298	+0.932	+0.292	Medium	16
Andrea Dovizioso	2:05.714	+1.348	+0.226	Medium	18
Jack Miller	2:05.782	+1.416	+0.105	Soft	18
Franco Morbidelli	2:05.788	+1.422	+0.512	Medium	18
Danilo Petrucci	2:05.989	+1.623	+0.574	Soft	18
Joan Mir	2:05.992	+1.626	+0.562	Medium	16
Fabio Quartararo	2:06.066	+1.700	+0.275	Medium	18
Jorge Lorenzo	2:06.347	+1.981	+1.158	Medium	8
Pol Espargaro	2:06.483	+2.117	+0.406	Soft	18
Takaaki Nakagami	2:06.584	+2.218	+0.359	Medium	18
Francesco Bagnaia	2:06.606	+2.240	+0.221	Soft	18
Andrea Iannone	2:06.762	+2.396	+0.224	Medium	18
Johann Zarco	2:07.154	+2.788	+0.344	Soft	18
Tito Rabat	2:07.248	+2.882	+0.229	Soft	18
Miguel Oliveira	2:07.270	+2.904	+0.193	Soft	18
Karel Abraham	2:07.386	+3.020	—	Soft	18
Hafizh Syahrin	2:08.354	+3.988	+0.491	Medium	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

4/20

Laps led by the winner

Alex Rins

0.462 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P13 to P4.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Franco Morbidelli (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:04:47	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:07:10	Joan Mir	Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:07:10	Maverick Viñales	Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:07:16	Maverick Viñales	Ride through	Ride through penalty
Race	14:07:16	Joan Mir	Ride through	Ride through penalty
Race	14:11:33		Ride through	Ride through
Race	14:12:20	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:12:25	Aleix Espargaro	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:13:40		Ride through	Ride through
Race	14:18:53	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:23:54	Jorge Lorenzo	Retired	Retired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Andrea Dovizioso	13	6	+7
Hafizh Syahrin	21	17	+4
Alex Rins	7	5	+2
Takaaki Nakagami	15	19	−4
Pol Espargaro	5	9	−4
Danilo Petrucci	8	11	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Andrea Dovizioso	13→4	+6.5
Alex Rins	7→1	+5.7
Franco Morbidelli	10→5	+3.6
Pol Espargaro	5→8	−2.6
Maverick Viñales	6→11	−5.0
Joan Mir	14→17	−5.8

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	64%	+1.23%	+0.027	1	2	8.7
Soft	36%	+2.02%	+0.030	0	1	10.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

19.1 °C

Air

max 20.6 °C

46%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

3 km/h

Wind

gusts 25 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 12.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	02:05.311	—	15	345.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	02:05.389	+0.078	16	336.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
3	Jack Miller	02:05.936	+0.625	15	343.9	Soft / Medium	2:07.732	+0.12%	10	Medium
4	Andrea Dovizioso	02:05.963	+0.652	13	343.0	Soft / Soft	2:08.492	+0.72%	4	Soft
5	Valentino Rossi	02:06.042	+0.731	18	336.6	Soft / Medium	2:07.574	—	11	Medium
6	Pol Espargaro	02:06.327	+1.016	17	340.6	Soft / Medium	2:07.750	+0.14%	9	Medium
7	Fabio Quartararo	02:06.332	+1.021	16	340.6	Soft / Soft	2:08.892	+1.03%	5	Medium
8	Cal Crutchlow	02:06.482	+1.171	15	341.8	Soft / Medium	2:08.319	+0.58%	7	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	02:06.497	+1.186	16	344.7	Soft / Medium	2:09.547	+1.55%	5	Medium
10	Andrea Iannone	02:06.692	+1.381	16	335.0	Soft / Medium	2:09.157	+1.24%	5	Medium
11	Franco Morbidelli	02:06.729	+1.418	16	339.1	Soft / Medium	2:12.868	+4.15%	5	Medium
12	Karel Abraham	02:06.732	+1.421	14	338.1	Soft / Medium	2:10.876	+2.59%	5	Medium
13	Danilo Petrucci	02:06.807	+1.496	16	341.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Joan Mir	02:06.863	+1.552	17	344.2	Soft / Soft	2:09.815	+1.76%	5	Medium
15	Alex Rins	02:06.883	+1.572	17	338.0	Soft / Medium	2:08.898	+1.04%	5	Medium
16	Johann Zarco	02:06.888	+1.577	15	334.9	Soft / Medium	2:07.686	+0.09%	5	Medium
17	Takaaki Nakagami	02:06.978	+1.667	16	336.5	Soft / Medium	2:09.120	+1.21%	5	Medium
18	Jorge Lorenzo	02:07.234	+1.923	16	341.8	Soft / Medium	2:09.439	+1.46%	5	Medium
19	Francesco Bagnaia	02:07.407	+2.096	17	340.1	Soft / Medium	2:09.469	+1.49%	12	Medium
20	Miguel Oliveira	02:08.035	+2.724	15	334.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Tito Rabat	02:08.175	+2.864	17	339.6	Soft / Medium	2:10.646	+2.41%	11	Medium
22	Hafizh Syahrin	02:09.338	+4.027	15	334.5	Soft / Medium	2:11.380	+2.98%	6	Medium

FP2 · 12.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	02:03.857	—	15	335.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	02:03.901	+0.044	16	342.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Valentino Rossi	02:04.003	+0.146	17	339.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Jack Miller	02:04.005	+0.148	14	343.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Cal Crutchlow	02:04.118	+0.261	16	345.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Alex Rins	02:04.353	+0.496	16	341.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Pol Espargaro	02:04.364	+0.507	15	344.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Franco Morbidelli	02:04.548	+0.691	15	334.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Fabio Quartararo	02:04.589	+0.732	16	337.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Francesco Bagnaia	02:04.630	+0.773	13	337.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Andrea Dovizioso	02:04.714	+0.857	16	341.2	missing / missing	—			—
12	Joan Mir	02:04.851	+0.994	15	338.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Danilo Petrucci	02:04.906	+1.049	16	339.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Aleix Espargaro	02:04.953	+1.096	14	343.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Takaaki Nakagami	02:05.020	+1.163	16	338.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Jorge Lorenzo	02:05.169	+1.312	16	341.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Johann Zarco	02:05.491	+1.634	16	338.1	Medium / Soft	2:06.609	—	4	Medium
18	Andrea Iannone	02:05.955	+2.098	16	338.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Karel Abraham	02:06.162	+2.305	13	336.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Tito Rabat	02:06.204	+2.347	15	342.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Miguel Oliveira	02:06.276	+2.419	16	336.6	Medium / Soft	2:07.700	+0.86%	5	Medium
22	Hafizh Syahrin	02:06.850	+2.993	16	334.2	Medium / Soft	2:08.180	+1.24%	4	Medium

FP4 · 13.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	02:05.478	—	9	331.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Cal Crutchlow	02:07.378	+1.900	10	330.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Valentino Rossi	02:08.029	+2.551	11	319.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Franco Morbidelli	02:08.440	+2.962	12	319.5	Soft / Soft	2:19.295	—	6	Wet-Soft
5	Alex Rins	02:08.592	+3.114	10	322.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Maverick Viñales	02:08.719	+3.241	10	325.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Andrea Dovizioso	02:08.822	+3.344	9	331.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Takaaki Nakagami	02:08.878	+3.400	9	322.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Jack Miller	02:08.894	+3.416	9	328.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Johann Zarco	02:09.142	+3.664	10	320.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Pol Espargaro	02:09.243	+3.765	10	322.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Joan Mir	02:09.426	+3.948	11	320.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Francesco Bagnaia	02:09.559	+4.081	8	320.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Fabio Quartararo	02:09.650	+4.172	12	314.7	Soft / Soft	2:22.878	+2.57%	5	Wet-Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	02:09.756	+4.278	10	321.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Aleix Espargaro	02:09.899	+4.421	7	318.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Hafizh Syahrin	02:10.128	+4.650	8	320.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Danilo Petrucci	02:10.151	+4.673	8	325.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Andrea Iannone	02:10.639	+5.161	9	316.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Tito Rabat	02:11.022	+5.544	11	310.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Karel Abraham	02:11.066	+5.588	8	318.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
—	Jorge Lorenzo	02:17.549	+12.071	7	323.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—

Q1 · 13.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Lorenzo	02:05.855	—	7	326.6	Soft / Soft
2	Danilo Petrucci	02:05.891	+0.036	6	328.0	Soft / Soft
3	Andrea Dovizioso	02:05.907	+0.052	6	332.4	Soft / Soft
4	Joan Mir	02:06.147	+0.292	7	327.5	Soft / Soft
5	Takaaki Nakagami	02:06.324	+0.469	7	328.0	Soft / Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	02:06.464	+0.609	7	322.0	Medium / Soft
7	Andrea Iannone	02:06.527	+0.672	7	322.3	Medium / Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	02:06.543	+0.688	7	330.2	Soft / Soft
9	Johann Zarco	02:06.824	+0.969	6	321.1	Medium / Soft
10	Karel Abraham	02:07.129	+1.274	7	327.4	Soft / Soft
11	Hafizh Syahrin	02:07.308	+1.453	7	322.2	Medium / Soft
12	Tito Rabat	02:07.417	+1.562	7	330.0	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 13.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	02:03.787	—	6	338.3
2	Valentino Rossi	02:04.060	+0.273	7	328.8
3	Cal Crutchlow	02:04.147	+0.360	7	338.9
4	Jack Miller	02:04.416	+0.629	7	336.7
5	Pol Espargaro	02:04.472	+0.685	7	331.8
6	Maverick Viñales	02:04.489	+0.702	7	324.9
7	Alex Rins	02:04.534	+0.747	7	325.5
8	Danilo Petrucci	02:04.696	+0.909	7	331.6
9	Fabio Quartararo	02:04.941	+1.154	7	323.7
10	Franco Morbidelli	02:05.278	+1.491	6	322.0
11	Jorge Lorenzo	02:05.383	+1.596	5	329.2
12	Francesco Bagnaia	02:05.887	+2.100	4	328.6

Warm Up · 14.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	02:04.573	—	10	343.4	Soft / Medium	2:06.332	+0.21%	8	Medium
2	Andrea Dovizioso	02:04.766	+0.193	10	346.9	Soft / Medium	2:06.102	+0.03%	8	Medium
3	Jack Miller	02:04.932	+0.359	10	343.2	Soft / Soft	2:06.066	—	8	Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	02:04.973	+0.400	10	334.9	Soft / Soft	2:06.102	+0.03%	8	Soft
5	Cal Crutchlow	02:05.143	+0.570	10	345.3	Soft / Medium	2:06.680	+0.49%	7	Medium
6	Valentino Rossi	02:05.428	+0.855	9	328.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
7	Franco Morbidelli	02:05.667	+1.094	10	333.6	Soft / Medium	2:06.310	+0.19%	8	Medium
8	Danilo Petrucci	02:05.752	+1.179	10	342.0	Soft / Soft	2:06.922	+0.68%	6	Soft
9	Alex Rins	02:05.853	+1.280	10	334.1	Soft / Medium	2:06.132	+0.05%	7	Medium
10	Joan Mir	02:06.012	+1.439	10	333.2	Soft / Medium	2:06.506	+0.35%	8	Medium
11	Takaaki Nakagami	02:06.063	+1.490	9	335.2	Soft / Medium	2:07.447	+1.10%	6	Medium
12	Fabio Quartararo	02:06.068	+1.495	9	336.6	Soft / Soft	2:07.054	+0.78%	6	Soft
13	Aleix Espargaro	02:06.209	+1.636	10	339.3	Soft / Medium	2:11.170	+4.05%	8	Medium
14	Pol Espargaro	02:06.348	+1.775	9	337.0	Soft / Soft	2:07.735	+1.32%	5	Soft
15	Jorge Lorenzo	02:06.629	+2.056	9	336.8	Soft / Medium	2:07.055	+0.79%	7	Medium
16	Francesco Bagnaia	02:07.080	+2.507	8	340.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Tito Rabat	02:07.487	+2.914	10	338.9	Medium / Soft	2:08.899	+2.25%	8	Soft
18	Andrea Iannone	02:07.512	+2.939	8	333.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Johann Zarco	02:07.598	+3.025	9	329.1	Soft / Soft	2:08.197	+1.69%	6	Soft
20	Karel Abraham	02:07.608	+3.035	10	337.0	Soft / Soft	2:12.066	+4.76%	8	Soft
21	Miguel Oliveira	02:07.624	+3.051	10	331.3	Soft / Soft	2:09.075	+2.39%	8	Soft
22	Hafizh Syahrin	02:07.871	+3.298	9	332.7	Soft / Soft	2:09.444	+2.68%	6	Soft

Race · 14.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Rins	41:45.499	25	20	Medium / Medium	2:05.065	+0.56%	18	Medium
2	Valentino Rossi	+0.462	20	20	Medium / Medium	2:05.164	+0.64%	18	Medium
3	Jack Miller	+8.454	16	20	Soft / Soft	2:05.782	+1.14%	18	Soft
4	Andrea Dovizioso	+9.420	13	20	Soft / Medium	2:05.714	+1.08%	18	Medium
5	Franco Morbidelli	+18.021	11	20	Medium / Medium	2:05.788	+1.14%	18	Medium
6	Danilo Petrucci	+21.476	10	20	Soft / Soft	2:05.989	+1.31%	18	Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	+26.111	9	20	Medium / Medium	2:06.066	+1.37%	18	Medium
8	Pol Espargaro	+29.743	8	20	Medium / Soft	2:06.483	+1.70%	18	Soft
9	Francesco Bagnaia	+30.608	7	20	Medium / Soft	2:06.606	+1.80%	18	Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	+31.011	6	20	Medium / Medium	2:06.584	+1.78%	18	Medium
11	Maverick Viñales	+34.077	5	20	Soft / Medium	2:05.298	+0.75%	16	Medium
12	Andrea Iannone	+34.779	4	20	Medium / Medium	2:06.762	+1.93%	18	Medium
13	Johann Zarco	+42.458	3	20	Medium / Soft	2:07.154	+2.24%	18	Soft
14	Miguel Oliveira	+44.272	2	20	Medium / Soft	2:07.270	+2.34%	18	Soft
15	Tito Rabat	+44.623	1	20	Medium / Soft	2:07.248	+2.32%	18	Soft
16	Karel Abraham	+44.740	0	20	Medium / Soft	2:07.386	+2.43%	18	Soft
17	Joan Mir	+48.063	0	20	Medium / Medium	2:05.992	+1.31%	16	Medium
18	Hafizh Syahrin	+67.683	0	20	Medium / Medium	2:08.354	+3.21%	18	Medium
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	5	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	5	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		0	10	Medium / Medium	2:06.347	+1.59%	8	Medium
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	8	Medium / Medium	2:04.366	—	6	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Rins	2:05.028	—	+0.217	Medium	16
Franco Morbidelli	2:05.895*	+0.867	+0.512	Medium	3
Joan Mir	2:06.005	+0.977	+0.562	Medium	15
Fabio Quartararo	2:06.110*	+1.082	+0.275	Medium	4
Johann Zarco	2:06.447*	+1.419	+0.344	Medium	3
Miguel Oliveira	2:07.693*	+2.665	+0.193	Medium	4
Hafizh Syahrin	2:08.087*	+3.059	+0.491	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Andrea Dovizioso	58%	3
2	Joan Mir	46%	4
3	Danilo Petrucci	34%	2 ✓
4	Aleix Espargaro	18%	6
5	Takaaki Nakagami	17%	5
6	Jorge Lorenzo	7%	1 ✓
7	Johann Zarco	9%	9
8	Andrea Iannone	4%	7
9	Karel Abraham	3%	10
10	Tito Rabat	3%	12
11	Miguel Oliveira	2%	8
12	Hafizh Syahrin	0%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Maverick Viñales	38%	71%	92%	6
2	Marc Marquez	24%	51%	84%	1
3	Valentino Rossi	15%	46%	82%	2
4	Jack Miller	5%	36%	69%	4
5	Cal Crutchlow	4%	28%	57%	3
6	Alex Rins	7%	22%	57%	7
7	Pol Espargaro	1%	11%	45%	5
8	Franco Morbidelli	3%	14%	37%	10
9	Fabio Quartararo	1%	6%	26%	9
10	Francesco Bagnaia	3%	8%	22%	12
11	Danilo Petrucci	1%	6%	19%	8
12	Jorge Lorenzo	0%	1%	12%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	30%	60%	74%	84%	14%	—
Valentino Rossi	2	24%	59%	75%	89%	8%	2
Cal Crutchlow	3	12%	38%	54%	69%	28%	—
Jack Miller	4	9%	31%	49%	68%	27%	3
Pol Espargaro	5	8%	27%	49%	74%	23%	8
Maverick Viñales	6	6%	26%	47%	81%	11%	11
Alex Rins	7	4%	17%	36%	71%	21%	1
Danilo Petrucci	8	3%	12%	29%	65%	22%	6
Fabio Quartararo	9	2%	9%	23%	68%	14%	7
Franco Morbidelli	10	1%	7%	18%	63%	13%	5
Jorge Lorenzo	11	1%	5%	15%	59%	10%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	12	0%	3%	9%	42%	27%	9
Andrea Dovizioso	13	0%	3%	8%	43%	13%	4
Joan Mir	14	0%	2%	4%	30%	27%	17
Takaaki Nakagami	15	0%	1%	4%	30%	12%	10
Aleix Espargaro	16	0%	1%	2%	19%	24%	—
Andrea Iannone	17	0%	0%	2%	14%	27%	12
Miguel Oliveira	18	0%	0%	1%	11%	14%	14
Johann Zarco	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	9%	13
Karel Abraham	20	0%	0%	1%	5%	32%	16
Hafizh Syahrin	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	16%	18
Tito Rabat	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	17%	15

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.55%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.60%
S3	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%	Fabio Quartararo +0.67%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.53%	Luca Marini +0.71%
S3	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.66%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.04%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Pedro Acosta +0.07%	Jorge Martin +0.19%
S2	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Jorge Martin +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Raul Fernandez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Rins +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.04%	Luca Marini +0.18%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Alex Rins +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez	Enea Bastianini +0.15%	Johann Zarco +0.37%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.43%
S4	Alex Rins +0.20%	Joan Mir +0.23%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jack Miller +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.31%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.64%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.09%	Johann Zarco +0.25%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.59%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.53%	Maverick Viñales +0.60%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.14%	Cal Crutchlow +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Cal Crutchlow +0.17%	Alex Rins +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.59%	Maverick Viñales +0.79%
S3	Marc Marquez	Valentino Rossi +0.74%	Maverick Viñales +0.80%
S4	Andrea Iannone	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

67/100

Position index

14%

Pole wins

62%

Front row on the podium

0.79

Grid ↔ result

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	45	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	41	−4
3	Valentino Rossi	31	−14
4	Alex Rins	24	−21
5	Danilo Petrucci	20	−25
6	Cal Crutchlow	19	−26

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

20/20

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

3.560 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Aleix Espargaro, from P19 to P10.

Longest battle: Danilo Petrucci vs Pol Espargaro (14 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	2:05.222	—	+0.210	Hard	18
Maverick Viñales	2:05.630	+0.408	+0.292	Medium	18
Andrea Iannone	2:05.743	+0.521	+0.224	Hard	18
Valentino Rossi	2:05.996	+0.774	+0.508	Medium	18
Andrea Dovizioso	2:06.141	+0.919	+0.226	Hard	18
Alex Rins	2:06.150	+0.928	+0.217	Hard	8
Johann Zarco	2:06.172	+0.950	+0.344	Medium	18
Cal Crutchlow	2:06.179	+0.957	+0.729	Hard	16
Daniel Pedrosa	2:06.195	+0.973	+0.089	Medium	18
Tito Rabat	2:06.726	+1.504	+0.229	Hard	18

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Maverick ViñalesAprilia
2023Alex RinsHonda
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2019Alex RinsSuzuki
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	5/22	23%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	9/22	41%
2022	2/24	8%
2021	2/21	10%
2019	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

2018 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	46%	+1.20%	+0.031	1	2	10.5
Medium	46%	+1.34%	+0.046	0	1	11.1
Soft	8%	+3.71%	+0.175	0	0	15.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.