Round 13 of 19 Aftermath

San Marino Grand Prix 2019

Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli San Marino

4.226 m · 27 laps · since 1980

13.09 – 15.09.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	42:25.163	25
2	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+0.903	20
3	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+1.636	16
4	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+12.660	13
5	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+12.774	11
6	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+13.744	10
7	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+20.050	9
8	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+22.512	8
9	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+26.554	7
10	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+31.456	6
11	Johann Zarco	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+32.388	5
12	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+34.477	4
13	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+35.325	3
14	Jorge Lorenzo	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+47.247	2
15	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+62.280	1
16	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+67.831	0
17	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+84.666	0
18	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+0.000	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Maverick Viñales · 29%	Marc Marquez · 8% · from P5	0.81 / 0.81	2.1 / 2.1

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

1/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.903 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Tito Rabat, from P22 to P13.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Marc Marquez (24 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:48		Jump start	jump start
Race	14:06:28	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:13:55	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:18:45	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:24:08	Alex Rins	Long lap	Long lap penalty - Shortcut
Race	14:24:45	Alex Rins	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:33:50	Michele Pirro	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:35:58	Michele Pirro	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:36:26	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK

Race: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Maverick Viñales (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jack Miller	16	9	+7
Danilo Petrucci	17	13	+4
Miguel Oliveira	19	16	+3
Johann Zarco	11	17	−6
Pol Espargaro	2	5	−3
Aleix Espargaro	15	18	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Marc Marquez	5→1	+4.4
Jack Miller	16→9	+3.5
Tito Rabat	22→13	+3.3
Johann Zarco	11→11	−1.7
Pol Espargaro	2→7	−3.5
Takaaki Nakagami	10→18	−9.4

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	91%	+0.92%	+0.013	1	3	8.8
Soft	9%	+1.83%	+0.027	0	0	15.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

24.5 °C

Air

max 24.7 °C

65%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

10 km/h

Wind

gusts 25 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Johann Zarco	58%	1 ✓
2	Miguel Oliveira	43%	9
3	Cal Crutchlow	33%	4
4	Francesco Bagnaia	19%	3
5	Joan Mir	17%	2 ✓
6	Jack Miller	8%	6
7	Danilo Petrucci	10%	7
8	Aleix Espargaro	3%	5
9	Jorge Lorenzo	3%	8
10	Tito Rabat	3%	12
11	Karel Abraham	2%	11
12	Hafizh Syahrin	1%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Quartararo	37%	69%	90%	3
2	Maverick Viñales	24%	51%	84%	1
3	Pol Espargaro	17%	50%	82%	2
4	Marc Marquez	4%	34%	69%	5
5	Franco Morbidelli	3%	28%	56%	4
6	Takaaki Nakagami	7%	21%	55%	11
7	Valentino Rossi	1%	12%	45%	7
8	Alex Rins	3%	13%	37%	9
9	Michele Pirro	1%	8%	29%	12
10	Andrea Dovizioso	3%	8%	21%	6
11	Johann Zarco	1%	8%	22%	8
12	Joan Mir	0%	1%	13%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Andrea Iannone	23	—	—	absent del Grid.pdf (pit lane / no surt)
Race	Johann Zarco	8	11	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #5

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Maverick Viñales	1	29%	60%	75%	86%	12%	3
Pol Espargaro	2	19%	47%	64%	76%	21%	7
Fabio Quartararo	3	14%	42%	59%	75%	23%	2
Franco Morbidelli	4	10%	35%	56%	78%	18%	5
Marc Marquez	5	8%	30%	53%	80%	14%	1
Andrea Dovizioso	6	5%	23%	45%	79%	13%	6
Valentino Rossi	7	5%	19%	41%	81%	9%	4
Alex Rins	8	3%	13%	29%	67%	21%	—
Joan Mir	9	2%	8%	18%	56%	26%	8
Takaaki Nakagami	10	2%	7%	16%	63%	14%	18
Johann Zarco	11	1%	6%	14%	58%	13%	11
Michele Pirro	12	1%	4%	10%	47%	19%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	13	1%	2%	5%	32%	34%	—
Cal Crutchlow	14	0%	2%	5%	29%	28%	—
Aleix Espargaro	15	0%	1%	4%	26%	25%	12
Jack Miller	16	0%	1%	2%	18%	28%	9
Danilo Petrucci	17	0%	1%	2%	15%	20%	10
Jorge Lorenzo	18	0%	0%	1%	13%	11%	14
Miguel Oliveira	19	0%	0%	1%	9%	12%	16
Hafizh Syahrin	20	0%	0%	1%	6%	23%	15
Karel Abraham	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	31%	17
Tito Rabat	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	19%	13
Andrea Iannone	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	26%	—

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,218 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.37%	Jorge Martin +0.47%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Jack Miller +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.31%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Fermin Aldeguer +0.48%	Raul Fernandez +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.14%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.10%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.25%	Luca Marini +0.29%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Enea Bastianini +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.41%
S4	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.39%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%
S2	Jorge Martin	Daniel Pedrosa +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Luca Marini +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.34%	Enea Bastianini +0.55%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.14%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S4	Jack Miller	Johann Zarco +0.40%	Fabio Quartararo +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.36%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.17%	Jack Miller +0.37%	Enea Bastianini +0.38%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.18%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Franco Morbidelli +0.10%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%	Pol Espargaro +0.22%	Miguel Oliveira +0.35%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Pol Espargaro +0.59%
S4	Jack Miller +0.17%	Miguel Oliveira +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.56%	Marc Marquez +0.62%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.45%	Maverick Viñales +0.53%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Valentino Rossi +0.52%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Pol Espargaro +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.13%	Cal Crutchlow +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.32%
S2	Jorge Lorenzo	Andrea Dovizioso +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.54%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%	Cal Crutchlow +0.44%	Marc Marquez +0.45%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.19%	Jack Miller +0.20%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

29/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.73

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	250	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	172	−78
3	Alex Rins	149	−101
4	Danilo Petrucci	145	−105
5	Maverick Viñales	118	−132
6	Valentino Rossi	116	−134

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

22/27

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

2.822 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P15 to P9.

Longest battle: Jorge Lorenzo vs Marc Marquez (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Andrea Dovizioso	1:33.293	—	+0.226	Medium	25
Marc Marquez	1:33.299	+0.006	+0.210	Medium	23
Jorge Lorenzo	1:33.343	+0.050	+1.158	Medium	23
Cal Crutchlow	1:33.452	+0.159	+0.729	Medium	25
Alex Rins	1:33.866	+0.573	+0.217	Soft	24
Maverick Viñales	1:33.868	+0.575	+0.292	Medium	25
Daniel Pedrosa	1:33.896	+0.603	+0.089	Medium	25
Andrea Iannone	1:33.920	+0.627	+0.224	Soft	24
Valentino Rossi	1:33.990	+0.697	+0.508	Medium	25
Alvaro Bautista	1:34.117	+0.824	+0.086	Soft	25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	7/21	33%
2025	7/23	30%
2024	3/22	14%
2023	4/23	17%
2022	4/25	16%
2021	3/24	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2018 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	50%	+1.56%	+0.008	0	0	14.5
Medium	46%	+0.70%	−0.006	1	3	9.8
Hard	4%	+1.24%	−0.003	0	0	—

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.