Round 12 of 19 Aftermath

British Grand Prix 2019

5.900 m · 20 laps · since 1977

23.08 – 25.08.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	40:12.799	25
2	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+0.013	20
3	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+0.620	16
4	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+11.439	13
5	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+13.109	11
6	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+19.169	10
7	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+19.682	9
8	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+20.318	8
9	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+21.079	7
10	Andrea Iannone	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+25.144	6
11	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+40.317	5
12	Sylvain Guintoli	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+45.478	4
13	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+54.783	3
14	Jorge Lorenzo	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+56.651	2
15	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+89.282	1
16	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+91.716	0
17	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+100.420	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 31%	Alex Rins · 7% · from P5	0.78 / 0.78	2.7 / 2.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	2:00.468	—	+0.292	Hard	18
Marc Marquez	2:00.475	+0.007	+0.210	Hard	18
Alex Rins	2:00.483	+0.015	+0.217	Hard	18
Valentino Rossi	2:01.102	+0.634	+0.508	Hard	18
Franco Morbidelli	2:01.136	+0.668	+0.512	Hard	18
Jack Miller	2:01.258	+0.790	+0.105	Hard	18
Cal Crutchlow	2:01.386	+0.918	+0.729	Hard	18
Danilo Petrucci	2:01.435	+0.967	+0.574	Hard	18
Pol Espargaro	2:01.438	+0.970	+0.406	Hard	18
Aleix Espargaro	2:01.561	+1.093	+0.209	Hard	17
Miguel Oliveira	2:01.568	+1.100	+0.193	Hard	6
Andrea Iannone	2:01.574	+1.106	+0.224	Hard	18
Johann Zarco	2:01.682	+1.214	+0.344	Hard	6
Takaaki Nakagami	2:01.914	+1.446	+0.359	Medium	17
Francesco Bagnaia	2:02.291	+1.823	+0.221	Hard	18
Sylvain Guintoli	2:02.576	+2.108	—	Hard	18
Tito Rabat	2:02.855	+2.387	+0.229	Hard	16
Hafizh Syahrin	2:02.964	+2.496	+0.491	Hard	18
Jorge Lorenzo	2:03.035	+2.567	+1.158	Medium	18
Karel Abraham	2:04.350	+3.882	—	Hard	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

2/20

Laps led by the winner

Alex Rins

0.013 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Francesco Bagnaia, from P18 to P11.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Marc Marquez (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	13:01:20	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:01:20	Andrea Dovizioso	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:02:20		Jump start	Jump start
Race	13:13:11	Tito Rabat	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:15:28	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:19:11	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:19:11	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:21:45	Tito Rabat	Long lap	Long lap penalty

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Andrea Iannone	17	11	+6
Pol Espargaro	13	9	+4
Miguel Oliveira	15	12	+3
Jack Miller	3	7	−4
Danilo Petrucci	11	13	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Rins	5→1	+4.4
Andrea Iannone	17→10	+3.1
Maverick Viñales	6→3	+3.0
Tito Rabat	16→16	−3.5
Jack Miller	3→8	−3.9
Takaaki Nakagami	10→17	−8.4

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	90%	+0.86%	+0.027	1	3	8.1
Medium	10%	+1.67%	+0.007	0	0	15.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

29.5 °C

Air

max 30.0 °C

31%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 28 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 23.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.952	—	17	315.7	Medium / Medium	2:02.372	+0.26%	5	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	02:00.538	+0.586	17	325.3	Medium / Medium	2:02.133	+0.07%	5	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	02:00.692	+0.740	16	317.6	Medium / Medium	2:02.082	+0.03%	12	Medium
4	Alex Rins	02:00.979	+1.027	16	322.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
5	Franco Morbidelli	02:01.002	+1.050	18	314.8	Medium / Medium	2:02.884	+0.68%	8	Medium
6	Andrea Dovizioso	02:01.005	+1.053	15	325.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Valentino Rossi	02:01.298	+1.346	18	319.5	Medium / Medium	2:02.326	+0.23%	10	Medium
8	Cal Crutchlow	02:01.395	+1.443	16	325.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
9	Danilo Petrucci	02:01.438	+1.486	14	325.3	Medium / Medium	2:02.050	—	5	Medium
10	Jack Miller	02:01.535	+1.583	15	325.3	Medium / Hard	2:02.338	+0.24%	5	Medium
11	Tito Rabat	02:01.589	+1.637	19	321.4	Medium / Soft	2:04.410	+1.93%	8	Medium
12	Aleix Espargaro	02:01.658	+1.706	15	322.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Andrea Iannone	02:01.810	+1.858	14	320.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Francesco Bagnaia	02:01.852	+1.900	16	320.4	Soft / Medium	2:04.281	+1.83%	7	Medium
15	Johann Zarco	02:01.860	+1.908	16	319.5	Medium / Hard	2:03.123	+0.88%	5	Medium
16	Miguel Oliveira	02:01.865	+1.913	13	318.5	Medium / Medium	2:03.076	+0.84%	5	Medium
17	Pol Espargaro	02:02.028	+2.076	16	321.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Takaaki Nakagami	02:02.062	+2.110	17	319.5	Medium / Medium	2:03.935	+1.54%	5	Medium
19	Karel Abraham	02:02.192	+2.240	12	319.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Sylvain Guintoli	02:02.557	+2.605	14	318.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Hafizh Syahrin	02:03.058	+3.106	14	319.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
22	Jorge Lorenzo	02:04.354	+4.402	16	321.4	Soft / Medium	2:06.046	+3.27%	12	Medium

FP2 · 23.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.225	—	16	317.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:59.476	+0.251	16	325.3	Hard / Hard	—			—
3	Maverick Viñales	01:59.765	+0.540	17	321.4	Medium / Soft	2:02.407	+0.74%	8	Medium
4	Valentino Rossi	01:59.937	+0.712	17	318.5	Medium / Soft	2:01.602	+0.07%	5	Hard
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:59.993	+0.768	16	327.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Andrea Dovizioso	02:00.110	+0.885	16	327.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
7	Franco Morbidelli	02:00.183	+0.958	18	315.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Miguel Oliveira	02:00.360	+1.135	16	319.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
9	Jack Miller	02:00.392	+1.167	14	325.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Danilo Petrucci	02:00.428	+1.203	14	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.492	+1.267	16	319.5	Hard / Soft	2:01.514	—	4	Hard
12	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.497	+1.272	11	324.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
13	Pol Espargaro	02:00.591	+1.366	16	323.3	Hard / Soft	2:01.655	+0.12%	5	Hard
14	Johann Zarco	02:00.664	+1.439	16	323.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Alex Rins	02:00.666	+1.441	18	322.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
16	Francesco Bagnaia	02:00.788	+1.563	16	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Andrea Iannone	02:00.907	+1.682	15	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Sylvain Guintoli	02:02.240	+3.015	16	319.5	Medium / Hard	2:03.212	+1.40%	5	Soft
19	Hafizh Syahrin	02:02.417	+3.192	16	317.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
20	Tito Rabat	02:02.473	+3.248	18	323.3	Hard / Hard	2:04.045	+2.08%	8	Hard
21	Jorge Lorenzo	02:02.907	+3.682	15	323.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Karel Abraham	02:02.993	+3.768	14	316.7	Hard / Hard	—			—

FP3 · 24.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:58.547	—	16	323.3	Medium / Soft	2:01.252	+0.51%	6	Soft
2	Valentino Rossi	01:58.693	+0.146	18	325.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Marc Marquez	01:58.913	+0.366	19	329.2	Medium / Soft	2:00.663	+0.03%	6	Hard
4	Jack Miller	01:59.003	+0.456	16	329.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:59.034	+0.487	15	330.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:59.184	+0.637	17	333.3	Hard / Soft	2:00.633	—	7	Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	01:59.298	+0.751	17	323.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:59.421	+0.874	16	320.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:59.480	+0.933	17	323.3	Hard / Soft	2:01.108	+0.39%	5	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.529	+0.982	14	325.3	Hard / Soft	2:01.648	+0.84%	4	Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:59.540	+0.993	17	328.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:59.626	+1.079	17	321.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Pol Espargaro	01:59.725	+1.178	17	325.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Andrea Dovizioso	01:59.740	+1.193	16	332.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Johann Zarco	01:59.847	+1.300	14	325.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
16	Francesco Bagnaia	01:59.904	+1.357	15	328.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Tito Rabat	02:00.530	+1.983	18	328.2	Medium / Soft	2:02.515	+1.56%	4	Medium
18	Sylvain Guintoli	02:00.911	+2.364	16	324.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Andrea Iannone	02:00.958	+2.411	18	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Hafizh Syahrin	02:01.168	+2.621	15	321.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Jorge Lorenzo	02:02.478	+3.931	14	326.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Karel Abraham	02:02.629	+4.082	12	324.3	Medium / Medium	—			—

FP4 · 24.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:59.327	—	14	326.2	Hard / Hard	2:00.496	+0.04%	6	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.818	+0.491	12	319.5	Medium / Hard	2:00.452	—	5	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:59.907	+0.580	15	321.4	Hard / Hard	2:00.668	+0.18%	13	Hard
4	Valentino Rossi	02:00.133	+0.806	13	321.4	Hard / Hard	—			—
5	Andrea Dovizioso	02:00.178	+0.851	12	333.3	Hard / Hard	2:01.255	+0.67%	5	Hard
6	Alex Rins	02:00.184	+0.857	12	323.3	Medium / Hard	—			—
7	Pol Espargaro	02:00.271	+0.944	13	323.3	Hard / Hard	—			—
8	Cal Crutchlow	02:00.460	+1.133	12	332.3	Hard / Hard	2:01.251	+0.66%	5	Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	02:00.500	+1.173	13	322.3	Medium / Medium	2:01.465	+0.84%	5	Medium
10	Miguel Oliveira	02:00.642	+1.315	12	322.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
11	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.670	+1.343	13	320.4	Hard / Medium	—			—
12	Jack Miller	02:00.678	+1.351	9	325.3	Hard / Hard	2:01.274	+0.68%	6	Hard
13	Francesco Bagnaia	02:00.959	+1.632	13	329.2	Hard / Hard	2:01.430	+0.81%	6	Hard
14	Johann Zarco	02:01.019	+1.692	12	319.5	Hard / Hard	—			—
15	Aleix Espargaro	02:01.035	+1.708	13	325.3	Hard / Medium	2:01.084	+0.53%	5	Medium
16	Danilo Petrucci	02:01.103	+1.776	11	323.3	Hard / Medium	2:01.870	+1.18%	6	Medium
17	Andrea Iannone	02:01.192	+1.865	11	322.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
18	Tito Rabat	02:01.506	+2.179	13	326.2	Hard / Medium	2:03.224	+2.30%	5	Hard
19	Hafizh Syahrin	02:01.703	+2.376	11	321.4	Hard / Hard	—			—
20	Sylvain Guintoli	02:01.744	+2.417	13	319.5	Medium / Hard	2:02.957	+2.08%	5	Hard
21	Jorge Lorenzo	02:03.490	+4.163	11	323.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Karel Abraham	02:04.553	+5.226	4	312.1	Hard / Medium	—			—

Q1 · 24.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:58.944	—	7	328.2	Hard / Soft
2	Alex Rins	01:59.190	+0.246	6	322.3	Medium / Soft
3	Pol Espargaro	01:59.549	+0.605	6	321.4	Hard / Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:59.648	+0.704	3	322.3	Medium / Soft
5	Miguel Oliveira	01:59.758	+0.814	7	319.5	Hard / Soft
6	Tito Rabat	01:59.916	+0.972	6	326.2	Medium / Soft
7	Andrea Iannone	02:00.240	+1.296	7	324.3	Hard / Soft
8	Francesco Bagnaia	02:00.362	+1.418	6	324.3	Medium / Soft
9	Sylvain Guintoli	02:00.660	+1.716	6	319.5	Medium / Soft
10	Hafizh Syahrin	02:00.700	+1.756	7	322.3	Hard / Soft
11	Jorge Lorenzo	02:01.562	+2.618	6	324.3	Medium / Soft
12	Karel Abraham	02:04.845	+5.901	4	317.6	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 24.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:58.168	—	7	330.2	Hard / Soft
2	Valentino Rossi	01:58.596	+0.428	7	320.4	Hard / Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:58.602	+0.434	7	329.2	Medium / Soft
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:58.612	+0.444	5	316.7	Medium / Soft
5	Alex Rins	01:58.670	+0.502	7	325.3	Hard / Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	01:58.762	+0.594	6	320.4	Medium / Soft
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:58.762	+0.594	7	329.2	Hard / Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:59.096	+0.928	7	322.3	Medium / Soft
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:59.243	+1.075	5	329.2	Hard / Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:59.427	+1.259	6	322.3	Hard / Soft
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:59.487	+1.319	7	327.2	Hard / Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.620	+1.452	7	327.2	Hard / Soft

Warm Up · 25.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.609	—	10	320.4	Medium / Hard	1:59.894	—	7	Hard
2	Marc Marquez	01:59.679	+0.070	10	327.2	Medium / Hard	1:59.954	+0.05%	8	Hard
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:59.910	+0.301	9	333.3	Medium / Hard	—			—
4	Valentino Rossi	01:59.995	+0.386	10	323.3	Hard / Hard	2:00.997	+0.92%	7	Hard
5	Alex Rins	02:00.053	+0.444	10	323.3	Hard / Hard	2:00.418	+0.44%	6	Hard
6	Maverick Viñales	02:00.059	+0.450	10	326.2	Medium / Hard	2:00.411	+0.43%	8	Hard
7	Cal Crutchlow	02:00.163	+0.554	10	327.2	Medium / Hard	2:00.388	+0.41%	5	Hard
8	Franco Morbidelli	02:00.243	+0.634	10	321.4	Medium / Hard	—			—
9	Danilo Petrucci	02:00.257	+0.648	10	327.2	Medium / Hard	2:00.680	+0.66%	8	Hard
10	Jack Miller	02:00.301	+0.692	8	333.3	Medium / Hard	—			—
11	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.370	+0.761	10	324.3	Medium / Medium	2:01.619	+1.44%	7	Medium
12	Pol Espargaro	02:00.410	+0.801	9	326.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
13	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.442	+0.833	10	328.2	Hard / Hard	2:01.824	+1.61%	6	Hard
14	Miguel Oliveira	02:00.532	+0.923	10	322.3	Medium / Hard	2:01.110	+1.01%	7	Hard
15	Johann Zarco	02:00.682	+1.073	9	321.4	Hard / Hard	—			—
16	Sylvain Guintoli	02:01.368	+1.759	10	322.3	Medium / Hard	2:02.304	+2.01%	8	Hard
17	Andrea Iannone	02:01.464	+1.855	9	321.4	Medium / Hard	—			—
18	Tito Rabat	02:01.580	+1.971	10	328.2	Medium / Hard	2:02.049	+1.80%	7	Hard
19	Hafizh Syahrin	02:01.737	+2.128	10	320.4	Medium / Hard	2:02.463	+2.14%	7	Hard
20	Francesco Bagnaia	02:01.867	+2.258	10	327.2	Medium / Hard	2:02.086	+1.83%	5	Hard
21	Karel Abraham	02:02.755	+3.146	10	322.3	Medium / Soft	2:03.525	+3.03%	5	Soft
22	Jorge Lorenzo	02:03.083	+3.474	10	324.3	Medium / Medium	2:03.846	+3.30%	8	Medium

Race · 25.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Rins	40:12.799	25	20	Hard / Hard	2:00.483	+0.01%	18	Hard
2	Marc Marquez	+0.013	20	20	Hard / Hard	2:00.475	+0.01%	18	Hard
3	Maverick Viñales	+0.620	16	20	Hard / Hard	2:00.468	—	18	Hard
4	Valentino Rossi	+11.439	13	20	Hard / Hard	2:01.102	+0.53%	18	Hard
5	Franco Morbidelli	+13.109	11	20	Hard / Hard	2:01.136	+0.56%	18	Hard
6	Cal Crutchlow	+19.169	10	20	Hard / Hard	2:01.386	+0.76%	18	Hard
7	Danilo Petrucci	+19.682	9	20	Hard / Hard	2:01.435	+0.80%	18	Hard
8	Jack Miller	+20.318	8	20	Hard / Hard	2:01.258	+0.66%	18	Hard
9	Pol Espargaro	+21.079	7	20	Hard / Hard	2:01.438	+0.81%	18	Hard
10	Andrea Iannone	+25.144	6	20	Hard / Hard	2:01.574	+0.92%	18	Hard
11	Francesco Bagnaia	+40.317	5	20	Hard / Hard	2:02.291	+1.51%	18	Hard
12	Sylvain Guintoli	+45.478	4	20	Medium / Hard	2:02.576	+1.75%	18	Hard
13	Hafizh Syahrin	+54.783	3	20	Hard / Hard	2:02.964	+2.07%	18	Hard
14	Jorge Lorenzo	+56.651	2	20	Medium / Medium	2:03.035	+2.13%	18	Medium
15	Karel Abraham	+89.282	1	20	Medium / Hard	2:04.350	+3.22%	18	Hard
16	Tito Rabat	+91.716	0	20	Hard / Hard	2:02.855	+1.98%	16	Hard
17	Takaaki Nakagami	+100.420	0	20	Hard / Medium	2:01.914	+1.20%	17	Medium
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	19	Hard / Hard	2:01.561	+0.91%	17	Hard
Out on lap 1	Andrea Dovizioso		0	0	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Fabio Quartararo		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	8	Hard / Hard	2:01.682	+1.01%	6	Hard
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	8	Hard / Hard	2:01.568	+0.91%	6	Hard

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Valentino Rossi	2:00.402*	—	+0.508	Medium	3
Alex Rins	2:00.458	+0.056	+0.217	Medium	5
Franco Morbidelli	2:00.676*	+0.274	+0.512	Medium	4
Fabio Quartararo	2:01.174	+0.772	+0.275	Medium	5
Jack Miller	2:01.194*	+0.792	+0.105	Medium	3
Maverick Viñales	2:01.236	+0.834	+0.292	Medium	5
Francesco Bagnaia	2:02.034*	+1.632	+0.221	Medium	4
Tito Rabat	2:02.511*	+2.109	+0.229	Medium	3
Hafizh Syahrin	2:02.750*	+2.348	+0.491	Medium	3
Karel Abraham	2:04.444*	+4.042	—	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alex Rins	58%	2 ✓
2	Miguel Oliveira	43%	5
3	Pol Espargaro	33%	3
4	Andrea Dovizioso	19%	1 ✓
5	Johann Zarco	17%	4
6	Francesco Bagnaia	9%	8
7	Tito Rabat	10%	6
8	Andrea Iannone	3%	7
9	Sylvain Guintoli	3%	9
10	Hafizh Syahrin	3%	10
11	Karel Abraham	2%	12
12	Jorge Lorenzo	1%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Quartararo	37%	70%	90%	4
2	Valentino Rossi	25%	51%	84%	2
3	Marc Marquez	16%	49%	82%	1
4	Jack Miller	4%	33%	69%	3
5	Danilo Petrucci	3%	28%	56%	11
6	Cal Crutchlow	7%	21%	55%	9
7	Maverick Viñales	1%	12%	44%	6
8	Franco Morbidelli	3%	13%	37%	8
9	Takaaki Nakagami	1%	8%	29%	10
10	Aleix Espargaro	3%	8%	21%	12
11	Alex Rins	1%	8%	21%	5
12	Andrea Dovizioso	0%	1%	13%	7

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	31%	62%	76%	85%	14%	2
Valentino Rossi	2	24%	58%	75%	89%	9%	4
Jack Miller	3	11%	37%	54%	69%	28%	8
Fabio Quartararo	4	10%	35%	56%	77%	19%	—
Alex Rins	5	7%	28%	49%	76%	21%	1
Maverick Viñales	6	6%	24%	47%	80%	13%	3
Andrea Dovizioso	7	4%	18%	38%	77%	13%	—
Franco Morbidelli	8	3%	12%	29%	71%	19%	5
Cal Crutchlow	9	1%	7%	18%	55%	28%	6
Takaaki Nakagami	10	1%	7%	17%	60%	15%	17
Danilo Petrucci	11	1%	4%	13%	52%	20%	7
Aleix Espargaro	12	0%	3%	9%	43%	25%	—
Pol Espargaro	13	0%	2%	6%	38%	22%	9
Johann Zarco	14	0%	2%	5%	36%	12%	—
Miguel Oliveira	15	0%	1%	3%	31%	7%	—
Tito Rabat	16	0%	1%	2%	21%	19%	16
Andrea Iannone	17	0%	0%	1%	13%	26%	10
Francesco Bagnaia	18	0%	0%	1%	8%	36%	11
Sylvain Guintoli	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	14%	12
Hafizh Syahrin	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	23%	13
Jorge Lorenzo	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	11%	14
Karel Abraham	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	31%	15

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,905 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.50%	Pedro Acosta +0.52%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.32%	Alex Marquez +0.40%
S3	Ai Ogura +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.36%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Raul Fernandez +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.28%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.32%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.06%	Raul Fernandez +0.19%
S3	Raul Fernandez +0.00%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Ai Ogura +0.09%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.19%	Alex Marquez +0.40%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.06%	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.27%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%	Marc Marquez +0.44%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.37%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.39%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15%	Aleix Espargaro +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.29%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.19%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Aleix Espargaro +0.05%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.51%	Luca Marini +0.56%	Jorge Martin +0.68%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.41%	Miguel Oliveira +0.45%
S3	Brad Binder +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.24%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.08%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Rins +0.05%	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%
S2	Alex Rins +0.11%	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Jack Miller +0.28%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.30%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Pol Espargaro +0.41%	Aleix Espargaro +0.41%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.21%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.09%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%	Jack Miller +0.37%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Alex Rins +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Cal Crutchlow +0.28%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Cal Crutchlow +0.49%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Dovizioso +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.35%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.25%	Maverick Viñales +0.30%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%	Johann Zarco +0.55%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

48/100

Position index

Pole wins

38%

Front row on the podium

0.72

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 33% of the time (between 6% and 79%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2019–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	230	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	172	−58
3	Danilo Petrucci	136	−94
4	Alex Rins	124	−106
5	Valentino Rossi	103	−127
6	Maverick Viñales	102	−128

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2017 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

3/20

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

Comeback of the day: Tito Rabat, from P21 to P12.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Scott Redding (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Raul FernandezAprilia
2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2024Enea BastianiniDucati
2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Alex RinsSuzuki
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	7/23	30%
2025	3/22	14%
2024	4/22	18%
2023	5/22	23%
2022	2/24	8%
2021	2/21	10%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet