Round 14 of 19 Aftermath

Aragon Grand Prix 2019

5.078 m · 23 laps · since 2010

20.09 – 22.09.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:57.221	25
2	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+4.836	20
3	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+5.430	16
4	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+5.811	13
5	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+8.924	11
6	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+10.390	10
7	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+10.441	9
8	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+23.623	8
9	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+27.998	7
10	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+31.242	6
11	Andrea Iannone	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+32.624	5
12	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+33.043	4
13	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+33.063	3
14	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+33.363	2
15	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+36.358	1
16	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+41.295	0
17	Mika Kallio	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+42.983	0
18	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+43.880	0
19	Bradley Smith	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team	+44.279	0
20	Jorge Lorenzo	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+46.087	0
21	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+47.308	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Out on lap 1	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 29% ✓	Marc Marquez · 29% · from P1	0.91 / 0.91	2.5 / 2.5

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:49.312	—	+0.210	Soft	21
Andrea Dovizioso	1:49.418	+0.106	+0.226	Soft	20
Maverick Viñales	1:49.548	+0.236	+0.292	Hard	21
Jack Miller	1:49.594	+0.282	+0.105	Soft	21
Cal Crutchlow	1:49.624	+0.312	+0.729	Soft	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:49.740	+0.428	+0.209	Soft	21
Fabio Quartararo	1:49.771	+0.459	+0.275	Hard	21
Joan Mir	1:50.251	+0.939	+0.562	Hard	21
Alex Rins	1:50.332	+1.020	+0.217	Hard	21
Valentino Rossi	1:50.355	+1.043	+0.508	Hard	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:50.420	+1.108	+0.193	Hard	21
Takaaki Nakagami	1:50.543	+1.231	+0.359	Soft	21
Danilo Petrucci	1:50.573	+1.261	+0.574	Hard	21
Andrea Iannone	1:50.632	+1.320	+0.224	Soft	21
Tito Rabat	1:50.719	+1.407	+0.229	Soft	21
Mika Kallio	1:50.913	+1.601	+0.462	Hard	21
Francesco Bagnaia	1:50.951	+1.639	+0.221	Soft	20
Karel Abraham	1:51.004	+1.692	—	Soft	20
Hafizh Syahrin	1:51.065	+1.753	+0.491	Soft	21
Bradley Smith	1:51.103	+1.791	+0.085	Soft	21
Jorge Lorenzo	1:51.131	+1.819	+1.158	Soft	21

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

4.836 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P10 to P2.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Mika Kallio (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	13:01:32		Jump start	Jump start
Race	13:02:06	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:09:37	Alex Rins	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to irresponsible riding

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jorge Lorenzo	19	13	+6
Bradley Smith	22	18	+4
Danilo Petrucci	14	10	+4
Alex Rins	12	19	−7
Joan Mir	9	15	−6
Maverick Viñales	3	4	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Andrea Dovizioso	10→2	+6.6
Marc Marquez	1→1	+1.8
Jack Miller	4→3	+1.8
Jorge Lorenzo	19→20	−5.6
Hafizh Syahrin	20→21	−6.0
Joan Mir	9→14	−6.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	62%	+1.21%	+0.034	1	3	11.5
Hard	38%	+0.94%	+0.052	0	0	10.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

25.4 °C

Air

max 25.8 °C

48%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

14 km/h

Wind

gusts 33 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 20.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:46.869	—	19	338.6	Medium / Soft	1:48.999	—	11	Hard
2	Maverick Viñales	01:48.486	+1.617	16	331.3	Medium / Hard	—			—
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:48.870	+2.001	19	327.3	Soft / Soft	1:50.190	+1.09%	11	Medium
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:48.889	+2.020	17	335.4	Soft / Hard	1:50.664	+1.53%	5	Medium
5	Jack Miller	01:49.101	+2.232	18	336.5	Medium / Hard	—			—
6	Joan Mir	01:49.101	+2.232	19	333.4	Medium / Hard	1:50.199	+1.10%	4	Medium
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:49.230	+2.361	16	334.4	Soft / Hard	1:50.408	+1.29%	5	Medium
8	Pol Espargaro	01:49.300	+2.431	17	335.4	Medium / Medium	1:53.986	+4.58%	5	Medium
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:49.304	+2.435	19	328.3	Medium / Medium	1:50.493	+1.37%	5	Medium
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:49.443	+2.574	18	330.3	Soft / Hard	—			—
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:49.445	+2.576	17	327.3	Medium / Soft	1:50.985	+1.82%	5	Medium
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:49.508	+2.639	15	329.3	Medium / Soft	1:49.803	+0.74%	5	Soft
13	Alex Rins	01:49.565	+2.696	16	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:49.625	+0.57%	5	Soft
14	Tito Rabat	01:49.607	+2.738	18	331.3	Medium / Soft	1:51.156	+1.98%	5	Medium
15	Cal Crutchlow	01:49.709	+2.840	18	337.5	Soft / Medium	1:50.062	+0.98%	5	Medium
16	Andrea Iannone	01:49.809	+2.940	18	330.3	Soft / Medium	1:51.805	+2.57%	5	Medium
17	Valentino Rossi	01:49.913	+3.044	19	329.3	Soft / Hard	1:50.346	+1.24%	5	Hard
18	Francesco Bagnaia	01:50.122	+3.253	15	331.3	Medium / Hard	1:50.364	+1.25%	4	Hard
19	Mika Kallio	01:50.128	+3.259	18	334.4	Medium / Soft	1:51.166	+1.99%	5	Medium
20	Karel Abraham	01:50.155	+3.286	16	332.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Hafizh Syahrin	01:50.418	+3.549	17	327.3	Medium / Medium	1:52.888	+3.57%	6	Medium
22	Bradley Smith	01:50.455	+3.586	17	331.3	Soft / Soft	1:51.337	+2.15%	5	Soft
23	Jorge Lorenzo	01:51.034	+4.165	17	333.4	Soft / Medium	1:51.720	+2.50%	5	Medium

FP2 · 20.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:48.014	—	19	331.3	— / —	—			—
2	Valentino Rossi	01:48.071	+0.057	19	324.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:48.117	+0.103	18	323.4	Medium / Soft	1:49.311	—	9	Hard
4	Marc Marquez	01:48.204	+0.190	18	330.3	— / —	—			—
5	Pol Espargaro	01:48.392	+0.378	17	327.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Jack Miller	01:48.442	+0.428	20	332.3	Soft / Soft	1:49.970	+0.60%	11	Soft
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:48.450	+0.436	19	333.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:48.477	+0.463	19	332.3	— / —	—			—
9	Joan Mir	01:48.641	+0.627	18	329.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:48.704	+0.690	15	329.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Alex Rins	01:48.737	+0.723	20	332.3	Medium / Hard	—			—
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:48.873	+0.859	17	332.3	— / —	—			—
13	Takaaki Nakagami	01:48.923	+0.909	17	326.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Franco Morbidelli	01:49.104	+1.090	19	327.3	Medium / Soft	1:49.853	+0.50%	11	Hard
15	Andrea Iannone	01:49.236	+1.222	15	325.4	Medium / Hard	—			—
16	Tito Rabat	01:49.304	+1.290	19	329.3	— / —	—			—
17	Mika Kallio	01:49.342	+1.328	19	332.3	Medium / Soft	1:55.151	+5.34%	5	Soft
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:49.425	+1.411	17	327.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Hafizh Syahrin	01:49.626	+1.612	15	327.3	Medium / Hard	—			—
20	Jorge Lorenzo	01:49.710	+1.696	17	334.4	— / —	—			—
21	Francesco Bagnaia	01:49.821	+1.807	13	329.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Karel Abraham	01:49.903	+1.889	15	328.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Bradley Smith	01:50.164	+2.150	15	326.3	Medium / Hard	—			—

FP3 · 21.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Rins	01:55.934	—	7	327.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:57.013	+1.079	8	321.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
3	Mika Kallio	01:57.744	+1.810	10	320.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:57.988	+2.054	17	322.5	Soft / Soft	2:01.857	+2.07%	9	Wet-Medium
5	Miguel Oliveira	01:58.153	+2.219	11	321.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:00.858	+1.24%	4	Wet-Medium
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:58.159	+2.225	14	327.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:01.564	+1.83%	6	Wet-Medium
7	Valentino Rossi	01:58.338	+2.404	11	321.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
8	Bradley Smith	01:58.593	+2.659	12	324.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:58.904	+2.970	14	324.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:59.381	—	5	Wet-Medium
10	Joan Mir	01:59.050	+3.116	7	325.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:59.143	+3.209	7	322.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:59.145	+3.211	8	326.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
13	Pol Espargaro	01:59.216	+3.282	5	319.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
14	Andrea Dovizioso	01:59.504	+3.570	8	329.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:01.890	+2.10%	6	Wet-Medium
15	Hafizh Syahrin	01:59.610	+3.676	5	322.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Jorge Lorenzo	01:59.792	+3.858	13	327.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
17	Cal Crutchlow	02:02.673	+6.739	4	327.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
18	Karel Abraham	02:03.241	+7.307	6	325.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		—	0	0.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
Retired	Andrea Iannone		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Jack Miller		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Marc Marquez		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Tito Rabat		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP4 · 21.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:48.246	—	17	336.5	Medium / Soft	1:48.678	—	15	Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:48.639	+0.393	13	338.6	Medium / Hard	1:50.193	+1.39%	5	Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:48.889	+0.643	14	330.3	Medium / Soft	1:49.353	+0.62%	6	Hard
4	Alex Rins	01:48.953	+0.707	12	338.6	Medium / Soft	1:49.229	+0.51%	5	Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:48.977	+0.731	17	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:49.677	+0.92%	14	Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:49.174	+0.928	14	331.3	Medium / Hard	1:49.356	+0.62%	6	Hard
7	Valentino Rossi	01:49.240	+0.994	14	333.4	Medium / Soft	1:49.567	+0.82%	6	Soft
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.266	+1.020	13	344.0	Hard / Soft	1:49.523	+0.78%	6	Soft
9	Joan Mir	01:49.304	+1.058	10	336.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:49.412	+1.166	11	337.5	Medium / Soft	1:49.868	+1.10%	5	Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:49.502	+1.256	14	333.4	Medium / Hard	1:50.989	+2.13%	10	Hard
12	Mika Kallio	01:49.507	+1.261	13	338.6	Hard / Soft	1:51.169	+2.29%	5	Hard
13	Miguel Oliveira	01:49.572	+1.326	13	333.4	Hard / Hard	1:50.612	+1.78%	5	Hard
14	Pol Espargaro	01:49.590	+1.344	7	337.5	Hard / Soft	1:49.600	+0.85%	4	Soft
15	Andrea Iannone	01:49.743	+1.497	12	332.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
16	Cal Crutchlow	01:49.760	+1.514	14	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:54.262	+5.14%	6	Soft
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:49.918	+1.672	13	335.4	Medium / Soft	1:50.658	+1.82%	6	Soft
18	Hafizh Syahrin	01:50.103	+1.857	12	334.4	Hard / Hard	1:50.376	+1.56%	5	Hard
19	Francesco Bagnaia	01:50.171	+1.925	15	339.6	Medium / Hard	1:50.320	+1.51%	8	Hard
20	Tito Rabat	01:50.256	+2.010	15	339.6	Hard / Hard	1:50.574	+1.75%	7	Hard
21	Bradley Smith	01:50.514	+2.268	15	332.3	Medium / Soft	1:50.897	+2.04%	11	Hard
22	Jorge Lorenzo	01:50.695	+2.449	15	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:50.971	+2.11%	8	Soft
23	Karel Abraham	01:50.905	+2.659	11	335.4	Medium / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 21.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.292	—	8	330.3	Medium / Soft
2	Andrea Iannone	01:48.330	+0.038	8	330.3	Medium / Soft
3	Alex Rins	01:48.449	+0.157	8	334.4	Medium / Hard
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:48.477	+0.185	7	330.3	Medium / Soft
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:48.682	+0.390	7	332.3	Soft / Soft
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:48.748	+0.456	7	335.4	Soft / Soft
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.827	+0.535	7	330.3	Medium / Soft
8	Tito Rabat	01:48.916	+0.624	7	337.5	Medium / Soft
9	Mika Kallio	01:49.085	+0.793	7	336.5	Hard / Soft
10	Jorge Lorenzo	01:49.282	+0.990	6	336.5	Medium / Soft
11	Hafizh Syahrin	01:49.315	+1.023	7	332.3	Medium / Soft
12	Karel Abraham	01:49.517	+1.225	7	335.4	Medium / Soft
13	Bradley Smith	01:49.756	+1.464	6	330.3	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 21.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:47.009	—	7	340.7	Medium / Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:47.336	+0.327	7	327.3	Medium / Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:47.472	+0.463	7	327.3	Medium / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:47.658	+0.649	7	339.6	Soft / Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:47.733	+0.724	7	333.4	Medium / Soft
6	Valentino Rossi	01:48.015	+1.006	7	329.3	Medium / Soft
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:48.322	+1.313	7	337.5	Medium / Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.372	+1.363	8	328.3	Medium / Soft
9	Joan Mir	01:48.458	+1.449	7	330.3	Medium / Soft
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:48.608	+1.599	8	338.6	Soft / Soft
11	Andrea Iannone	01:49.240	+2.231	3	328.3	Medium / Soft
Retired	Pol Espargaro		—	0	0.0	— / —

Warm Up · 22.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:59.111	—	3	327.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:59.400	+0.289	8	327.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
3	Joan Mir	01:59.514	+0.403	10	325.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:01.240	—	6	Wet-Medium
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:59.711	+0.600	10	331.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:01.796	+0.46%	8	Wet-Medium
5	Valentino Rossi	01:59.975	+0.864	9	324.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
6	Mika Kallio	02:00.014	+0.903	10	326.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:01.564	+0.27%	8	Wet-Medium
7	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.200	+1.089	10	325.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
8	Alex Rins	02:00.284	+1.173	8	329.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
9	Bradley Smith	02:00.483	+1.372	10	321.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:03.079	+1.52%	7	Wet-Medium
10	Franco Morbidelli	02:00.594	+1.483	10	321.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:02.163	+0.76%	7	Wet-Soft
11	Jorge Lorenzo	02:00.654	+1.543	10	327.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:03.417	+1.80%	7	Wet-Medium
12	Miguel Oliveira	02:00.661	+1.550	10	321.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:02.008	+0.63%	7	Wet-Medium
13	Danilo Petrucci	02:01.154	+2.043	6	328.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
14	Jack Miller	02:01.181	+2.070	5	332.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
15	Hafizh Syahrin	02:02.593	+3.482	8	322.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:03.598	+1.95%	4	Wet-Medium
16	Andrea Dovizioso	02:03.191	+4.080	5	327.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
17	Fabio Quartararo	02:03.421	+4.310	5	319.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
18	Andrea Iannone	02:08.271	+9.160	4	315.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Karel Abraham		—	0	0.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
Retired	Marc Marquez		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Tito Rabat		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Race · 22.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:57.221	25	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.312	—	21	Soft
2	Andrea Dovizioso	+4.836	20	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.418	+0.10%	20	Soft
3	Jack Miller	+5.430	16	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.594	+0.26%	21	Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	+5.811	13	23	Medium / Hard	1:49.548	+0.22%	21	Hard
5	Fabio Quartararo	+8.924	11	23	Medium / Hard	1:49.771	+0.42%	21	Hard
6	Cal Crutchlow	+10.390	10	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.624	+0.29%	21	Soft
7	Aleix Espargaro	+10.441	9	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.740	+0.39%	21	Soft
8	Valentino Rossi	+23.623	8	23	Medium / Hard	1:50.355	+0.95%	21	Hard
9	Alex Rins	+27.998	7	23	Medium / Hard	1:50.332	+0.93%	21	Hard
10	Takaaki Nakagami	+31.242	6	23	Medium / Soft	1:50.543	+1.13%	21	Soft
11	Andrea Iannone	+32.624	5	23	Medium / Soft	1:50.632	+1.21%	21	Soft
12	Danilo Petrucci	+33.043	4	23	Medium / Hard	1:50.573	+1.15%	21	Hard
13	Miguel Oliveira	+33.063	3	23	Medium / Hard	1:50.420	+1.01%	21	Hard
14	Joan Mir	+33.363	2	23	Medium / Hard	1:50.251	+0.86%	21	Hard
15	Tito Rabat	+36.358	1	23	Medium / Soft	1:50.719	+1.29%	21	Soft
16	Francesco Bagnaia	+41.295	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:50.951	+1.50%	20	Soft
17	Mika Kallio	+42.983	0	23	Hard / Hard	1:50.913	+1.47%	21	Hard
18	Karel Abraham	+43.880	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:51.004	+1.55%	20	Soft
19	Bradley Smith	+44.279	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:51.103	+1.64%	21	Soft
20	Jorge Lorenzo	+46.087	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:51.131	+1.66%	21	Soft
21	Hafizh Syahrin	+47.308	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:51.065	+1.60%	21	Soft
Out on lap 1	Franco Morbidelli		0	0	— / —	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alex Rins	58%	3
2	Takaaki Nakagami	43%	4
3	Franco Morbidelli	33%	1 ✓
4	Danilo Petrucci	19%	5
5	Mika Kallio	18%	9
6	Miguel Oliveira	8%	7
7	Tito Rabat	10%	8
8	Andrea Iannone	3%	2 ✓
9	Francesco Bagnaia	3%	6
10	Karel Abraham	3%	12
11	Hafizh Syahrin	2%	11
12	Bradley Smith	1%	13
13	Jorge Lorenzo	0%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	37%	69%	90%	1
2	Valentino Rossi	25%	52%	84%	6
3	Fabio Quartararo	17%	50%	83%	2
4	Jack Miller	4%	33%	69%	4
5	Maverick Viñales	3%	28%	56%	3
6	Joan Mir	7%	21%	54%	9
7	Aleix Espargaro	1%	12%	44%	5
8	Andrea Dovizioso	3%	13%	37%	10
9	Cal Crutchlow	1%	8%	28%	7
10	Franco Morbidelli	3%	8%	22%	8
11	Andrea Iannone	1%	8%	22%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Pol Espargaro	12	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	29%	60%	75%	85%	14%	1
Fabio Quartararo	2	20%	48%	64%	76%	22%	5
Maverick Viñales	3	16%	48%	68%	84%	12%	4
Jack Miller	4	10%	32%	50%	69%	27%	3
Aleix Espargaro	5	7%	26%	46%	70%	25%	7
Valentino Rossi	6	6%	27%	50%	83%	9%	8
Cal Crutchlow	7	4%	16%	32%	64%	28%	6
Franco Morbidelli	8	3%	14%	32%	71%	18%	—
Joan Mir	9	2%	8%	21%	60%	25%	14
Andrea Dovizioso	10	2%	7%	18%	64%	13%	2
Andrea Iannone	11	1%	4%	12%	50%	26%	11
Alex Rins	12	1%	4%	9%	45%	22%	9
Takaaki Nakagami	13	1%	3%	8%	43%	14%	10
Danilo Petrucci	14	0%	2%	5%	34%	20%	12
Francesco Bagnaia	15	0%	1%	3%	22%	38%	16
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	1%	3%	25%	11%	13
Tito Rabat	17	0%	0%	2%	18%	19%	15
Mika Kallio	18	0%	0%	1%	11%	35%	17
Jorge Lorenzo	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	11%	20
Hafizh Syahrin	20	0%	0%	1%	6%	22%	21
Karel Abraham	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	31%	18
Bradley Smith	22	0%	0%	0%	4%	14%	19
Pol Espargaro	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	21%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,068 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.40%	Jorge Martin +0.43%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.54%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.54%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%	Enea Bastianini +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Martin +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Jorge Martin +0.40%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.12%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.15%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.53%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.57%
S3	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.49%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Brad Binder +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.36%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.33%	Pedro Acosta +0.59%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Pedro Acosta +0.59%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Pedro Acosta +0.28%	Jorge Martin +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.43%	Jorge Martin +0.47%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.36%	Jorge Martin +0.39%
S3	Enea Bastianini	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Aleix Espargaro +0.66%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.12%	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Miguel Oliveira +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Joan Mir +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Enea Bastianini +0.29%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.32%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.00%	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Franco Morbidelli +0.25%	Joan Mir +0.40%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.16%	Alex Marquez +0.25%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.14%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.35%	Jack Miller +0.57%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%	Jack Miller +0.77%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.64%	Aleix Espargaro +0.66%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.13%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.24%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Cal Crutchlow +0.27%	Danilo Petrucci +0.44%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.51%	Cal Crutchlow +0.58%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.08%	Danilo Petrucci +0.35%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.38%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

71/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.78

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	275	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	182	−93
3	Danilo Petrucci	151	−124
4	Alex Rins	149	−126
5	Maverick Viñales	134	−141
6	Valentino Rossi	129	−146

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

5/23

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.648 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P17 to P8.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Marc Marquez (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:49.210	—	+0.210	Soft	21
Alex Rins	1:49.230	+0.020	+0.217	Soft	21
Andrea Dovizioso	1:49.254	+0.044	+0.226	Hard	21
Andrea Iannone	1:49.300	+0.090	+0.224	Soft	21
Daniel Pedrosa	1:49.412	+0.202	+0.089	Hard	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:49.626	+0.416	+0.209	Soft	21
Danilo Petrucci	1:49.690	+0.480	+0.574	Hard	21
Jack Miller	1:49.752	+0.542	+0.105	Hard	20
Valentino Rossi	1:49.819	+0.609	+0.508	Hard	21
Maverick Viñales	1:50.006	+0.796	+0.292	Hard	21

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	4/22	18%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	5/22	23%
2022	3/23	13%
2021	2/22	9%
2020	1/21	5%

Tyres at the last edition

2018 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	59%	+0.81%	+0.043	0	1	11.1
Soft	41%	+0.85%	+0.035	1	2	9.6

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.