Round 7 of 19 Aftermath

Catalan Grand Prix 2019

4.655 m · 25 laps · since 1991

14.06 – 16.06.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	40:31.175	25
2	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+2.660	20
3	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+4.537	16
4	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+6.602	13
5	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+6.870	11
6	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+7.040	10
7	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+16.144	9
8	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+17.969	8
9	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+22.661	7
10	Johann Zarco	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+26.228	6
11	Andrea Iannone	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+32.036	5
12	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+44.666	4
13	Sylvain Guintoli	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+51.363	3
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	Retired	0
DNF	Bradley Smith	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Retired	0
DNF	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Lorenzo	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 27%	Marc Marquez · 21% · from P2	0.96 / 0.96	4.0 / 3.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:40.932	—	+0.210	Soft	22
Cal Crutchlow	1:41.060	+0.128	+0.729	Medium	16
Fabio Quartararo	1:41.089	+0.157	+0.275	Medium	22
Danilo Petrucci	1:41.132	+0.200	+0.574	Soft	22
Alex Rins	1:41.166	+0.234	+0.217	Medium	21
Joan Mir	1:41.175	+0.243	+0.562	Medium	21
Jack Miller	1:41.222	+0.290	+0.105	Medium	22
Franco Morbidelli	1:41.441	+0.509	+0.512	Hard	14
Pol Espargaro	1:41.508	+0.576	+0.406	Soft	22
Takaaki Nakagami	1:41.574	+0.642	+0.359	Soft	22
Tito Rabat	1:41.708	+0.776	+0.229	Medium	22
Johann Zarco	1:41.863	+0.931	+0.344	Hard	22
Andrea Iannone	1:42.149	+1.217	+0.224	Soft	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:42.548	+1.616	+0.193	Medium	21
Sylvain Guintoli	1:43.062	+2.130	—	Medium	22

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

23/24

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.660 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Iannone, from P24 to P11.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Fabio Quartararo (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:39		Jump start	jump start
Race	14:01:50	Karel Abraham	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:13	Bradley Smith	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:03:12	Aleix Espargaro	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:03:44	Andrea Dovizioso	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:03:44	Maverick Viñales	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:03:44	Valentino Rossi	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:03:44	Jorge Lorenzo	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:05:01	Valentino Rossi	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:05:20	Andrea Dovizioso	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:07:09	Hafizh Syahrin	Retired	retired
Race	14:10:13	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:27:21	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:31:46	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:32:47	Franco Morbidelli	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #12

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Andrea Dovizioso (started P5).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Andrea Iannone	24	17	+7
Jack Miller	14	7	+7
Jorge Lorenzo	10	4	+6
Franco Morbidelli	3	13	−10
Fabio Quartararo	1	8	−7
Aleix Espargaro	17	22	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Andrea Iannone	24→11	+6.6
Jack Miller	14→5	+6.2
Tito Rabat	19→9	+5.4
Pol Espargaro	12→7	+2.9
Marc Marquez	2→1	+2.5
Fabio Quartararo	1→2	+0.8

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	46%	+0.29%	+0.010	0	1	7.3
Soft	46%	+0.60%	+0.034	1	2	6.0
Hard	9%	+0.71%	+0.012	0	0	10.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

24.4 °C

Air

max 25.3 °C

52%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

15 km/h

Wind

gusts 39 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 14.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:40.692	—	20	344.3	Soft / Soft	1:41.320	+0.06%	10	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.803	+0.111	20	337.0	Soft / Medium	1:41.459	+0.20%	13	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:40.872	+0.180	22	337.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.826	+0.56%	15	Medium
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:41.030	+0.338	17	345.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.789	+0.52%	5	Medium
5	Takaaki Nakagami	01:41.040	+0.348	20	341.8	Soft / Medium	1:42.267	+1.00%	12	Medium
6	Jack Miller	01:41.049	+0.357	18	345.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.629	+0.37%	5	Medium
7	Alex Rins	01:41.142	+0.450	19	338.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.258	—	10	Medium
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.160	+0.468	21	334.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.807	+0.54%	10	Medium
9	Valentino Rossi	01:41.190	+0.498	20	339.7	Soft / Medium	1:42.022	+0.76%	10	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:41.213	+0.521	17	340.8	Soft / Medium	1:42.102	+0.83%	5	Medium
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:41.243	+0.551	19	346.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
12	Joan Mir	01:41.355	+0.663	21	340.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.727	+0.46%	12	Medium
13	Johann Zarco	01:41.390	+0.698	18	339.8	Soft / Medium	1:42.471	+1.20%	5	Medium
14	Pol Espargaro	01:41.410	+0.718	19	341.9	Soft / Medium	1:43.136	+1.86%	5	Medium
15	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.530	+0.838	19	339.5	Soft / Medium	1:42.695	+1.42%	6	Medium
16	Tito Rabat	01:41.603	+0.911	22	340.2	Soft / Medium	1:42.535	+1.26%	16	Medium
17	Jorge Lorenzo	01:41.621	+0.929	16	341.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.624	+0.932	18	340.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Andrea Iannone	01:41.825	+1.133	19	343.6	Soft / Medium	1:42.888	+1.61%	4	Medium
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:41.920	+1.228	20	337.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Karel Abraham	01:41.972	+1.280	18	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:44.871	+3.57%	5	Medium
22	Bradley Smith	01:42.168	+1.476	17	340.6	Soft / Medium	1:43.410	+2.13%	5	Medium
23	Sylvain Guintoli	01:42.363	+1.671	17	336.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
24	Hafizh Syahrin	01:42.448	+1.756	18	336.4	Soft / Medium	—			—

FP2 · 14.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.079	—	19	329.2	Soft / Soft	1:41.565	+0.67%	10	Medium
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.360	+0.281	18	340.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.381	+0.302	21	334.5	Medium / Soft	1:41.664	+0.77%	11	Medium
4	Pol Espargaro	01:40.393	+0.314	20	338.6	Medium / Soft	1:41.358	+0.46%	5	Medium
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.471	+0.392	18	335.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.517	+0.438	19	330.6	Soft / Soft	1:41.350	+0.46%	6	Hard
7	Valentino Rossi	01:40.520	+0.441	21	331.4	Soft / Soft	1:41.582	+0.69%	7	Medium
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.599	+0.520	17	339.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.702	+0.623	19	339.9	Soft / Soft	1:41.705	+0.81%	9	Hard
10	Alex Rins	01:40.727	+0.648	17	333.6	Medium / Medium	1:40.890	—	5	Medium
11	Karel Abraham	01:40.727	+0.648	17	339.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Johann Zarco	01:40.771	+0.692	15	334.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Jorge Lorenzo	01:40.816	+0.737	18	336.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Maverick Viñales	01:40.847	+0.768	18	335.1	Soft / Soft	1:42.911	+2.00%	5	Medium
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.878	+0.799	18	334.1	Medium / Soft	1:43.058	+2.15%	5	Medium
16	Jack Miller	01:40.948	+0.869	19	338.8	Soft / Soft	1:42.433	+1.53%	5	Soft
17	Marc Marquez	01:40.963	+0.884	15	342.0	Hard / Medium	—			—
18	Tito Rabat	01:41.007	+0.928	18	337.1	Soft / Soft	1:42.962	+2.05%	4	Medium
19	Joan Mir	01:41.070	+0.991	19	338.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:41.331	+1.252	19	336.1	Medium / Soft	1:43.322	+2.41%	6	Medium
21	Andrea Iannone	01:41.524	+1.445	17	334.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:41.527	+1.448	18	332.7	Medium / Soft	1:42.627	+1.72%	5	Medium
23	Sylvain Guintoli	01:41.987	+1.908	17	335.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Bradley Smith	01:42.156	+2.077	18	336.5	Medium / Hard	1:42.797	+1.89%	5	Hard

FP3 · 15.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Rins	01:39.547	—	19	342.5	Medium / Medium	1:40.963	+0.83%	5	Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.583	+0.036	16	336.6	Soft / Soft	1:40.937	+0.81%	8	Soft
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.711	+0.164	19	344.4	Medium / Soft	1:41.265	+1.14%	4	Medium
4	Valentino Rossi	01:39.722	+0.175	20	340.9	Soft / Soft	1:40.569	+0.44%	6	Soft
5	Maverick Viñales	01:39.756	+0.209	22	337.0	Soft / Soft	1:40.926	+0.80%	10	Soft
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.769	+0.222	18	348.1	Soft / Soft	1:41.479	+1.35%	5	Soft
7	Pol Espargaro	01:39.857	+0.310	18	341.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.918	+0.371	19	341.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Marc Marquez	01:39.923	+0.376	19	346.3	Soft / Soft	1:40.128	—	6	Medium
10	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.949	+0.402	18	342.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Jack Miller	01:39.967	+0.420	19	346.4	Soft / Soft	1:40.612	+0.48%	6	Medium
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.067	+0.520	18	340.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.919	+0.79%	5	Soft
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.079	+0.532	13	336.9	Soft / Soft	1:40.591	+0.46%	9	Hard
14	Joan Mir	01:40.158	+0.611	19	341.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.366	+0.819	17	340.4	Medium / Soft	1:41.109	+0.98%	5	Soft
16	Andrea Iannone	01:40.454	+0.907	19	340.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.582	+1.035	13	341.6	Soft / Soft	1:40.978	+0.85%	6	Soft
18	Karel Abraham	01:40.761	+1.214	17	337.7	Medium / Soft	1:42.257	+2.13%	4	Soft
19	Johann Zarco	01:40.942	+1.395	16	338.9	Soft / Soft	1:41.164	+1.04%	4	Soft
20	Tito Rabat	01:40.996	+1.449	20	340.4	Soft / Soft	1:41.552	+1.42%	11	Soft
21	Bradley Smith	01:41.023	+1.476	17	337.7	Medium / Soft	1:41.727	+1.60%	5	Soft
22	Miguel Oliveira	01:41.102	+1.555	20	337.0	Medium / Soft	1:42.276	+2.15%	12	Soft
23	Sylvain Guintoli	01:41.115	+1.568	16	340.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
24	Hafizh Syahrin	01:41.498	+1.951	18	337.6	Medium / Soft	1:41.800	+1.67%	6	Soft

FP4 · 15.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.235	—	15	334.4	— / —	—			—
2	Alex Rins	01:40.338	+0.103	15	340.6	— / —	—			—
3	Maverick Viñales	01:40.486	+0.251	15	334.6	Soft / Soft	1:41.286	+0.04%	5	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:40.679	+0.444	16	345.8	Hard / Hard	1:41.544	+0.29%	6	Hard
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.727	+0.492	9	328.8	— / —	—			—
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.742	+0.507	13	342.5	— / —	—			—
7	Valentino Rossi	01:40.851	+0.616	15	336.4	Medium / Hard	—			—
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.924	+0.689	14	337.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Joan Mir	01:40.957	+0.722	15	341.3	Medium / Hard	1:41.250	—	12	Hard
10	Jack Miller	01:40.983	+0.748	14	344.9	— / —	—			—
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:41.129	+0.894	12	342.5	— / —	—			—
12	Jorge Lorenzo	01:41.138	+0.903	14	341.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
13	Tito Rabat	01:41.161	+0.926	16	340.5	Medium / Medium	1:41.730	+0.47%	11	Medium
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:41.218	+0.983	15	335.8	Medium / Medium	1:42.078	+0.82%	11	Soft
15	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.228	+0.993	15	341.8	— / —	—			—
16	Pol Espargaro	01:41.286	+1.051	12	338.4	— / —	—			—
17	Hafizh Syahrin	01:41.369	+1.134	16	336.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:41.464	+1.229	15	335.6	Medium / Medium	1:42.196	+0.93%	11	Medium
19	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.526	+1.291	9	341.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Johann Zarco	01:41.609	+1.374	14	337.6	— / —	—			—
21	Karel Abraham	01:41.663	+1.428	11	340.3	— / —	—			—
22	Andrea Iannone	01:41.677	+1.442	15	337.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
23	Bradley Smith	01:41.953	+1.718	14	335.9	Medium / Medium	1:42.650	+1.38%	10	Soft
24	Sylvain Guintoli	01:42.408	+2.173	13	335.5	Medium / Medium	1:42.547	+1.28%	7	Medium

Q1 · 15.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.727	—	7	334.4	Medium / Soft
2	Joan Mir	01:40.012	+0.285	8	342.7	Medium / Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.167	+0.440	8	343.8	Soft / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:40.271	+0.544	8	344.1	Medium / Soft
5	Karel Abraham	01:40.349	+0.622	8	345.0	Medium / Soft
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.362	+0.635	8	339.3	Medium / Soft
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.400	+0.673	8	336.5	Medium / Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:40.427	+0.700	7	337.3	Soft / Soft
9	Tito Rabat	01:40.682	+0.955	7	343.4	Medium / Soft
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.752	+1.025	8	338.2	Medium / Soft
11	Hafizh Syahrin	01:40.839	+1.112	8	336.8	Medium / Soft
12	Bradley Smith	01:41.232	+1.505	7	337.0	Medium / Soft
13	Sylvain Guintoli	01:41.270	+1.543	8	339.4	Medium / Medium
14	Andrea Iannone	01:41.748	+2.021	5	336.7	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 15.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.484	—	8	338.6	Soft / Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:39.499	+0.015	7	345.6	Medium / Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:39.710	+0.226	8	336.3	Soft / Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.711	+0.227	7	336.0	Medium / Soft
5	Valentino Rossi	01:39.753	+0.269	8	338.5	Soft / Soft
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.777	+0.293	8	342.8	Soft / Soft
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.844	+0.360	7	344.2	Soft / Soft
8	Alex Rins	01:39.870	+0.386	6	341.0	Medium / Soft
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.151	+0.667	7	344.1	Medium / Soft
10	Jorge Lorenzo	01:40.199	+0.715	7	343.2	Soft / Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:40.240	+0.756	7	341.4	Soft / Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	01:40.425	+0.941	7	340.2	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 16.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.918	—	12	336.5	Soft / Medium	1:40.557	+0.10%	9	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	01:39.965	+0.047	12	344.9	Soft / Soft	1:40.460	—	9	Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.173	+0.255	7	340.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.943	+0.48%	5	Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:40.188	+0.270	12	337.2	Soft / Soft	1:40.916	+0.45%	9	Soft
5	Alex Rins	01:40.298	+0.380	11	343.4	Medium / Medium	1:40.612	+0.15%	6	Medium
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.323	+0.405	10	338.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Valentino Rossi	01:40.417	+0.499	12	341.7	Medium / Medium	1:40.845	+0.38%	9	Medium
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.532	+0.614	12	344.7	Soft / Medium	1:40.935	+0.47%	9	Medium
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.560	+0.642	6	344.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.705	+0.787	11	345.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
11	Jorge Lorenzo	01:40.708	+0.790	12	340.5	Soft / Soft	1:40.919	+0.46%	10	Soft
12	Joan Mir	01:40.733	+0.815	12	342.2	Medium / Medium	1:40.864	+0.40%	10	Medium
13	Tito Rabat	01:40.734	+0.816	12	344.6	Soft / Soft	1:41.002	+0.54%	9	Soft
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.748	+0.830	11	339.6	Soft / Soft	1:41.125	+0.66%	7	Soft
15	Jack Miller	01:40.789	+0.871	12	345.7	Soft / Medium	1:41.450	+0.99%	8	Medium
16	Pol Espargaro	01:40.821	+0.903	7	339.9	Medium / Soft	1:41.215	+0.75%	5	Soft
17	Johann Zarco	01:40.976	+1.058	12	339.4	Soft / Hard	1:41.589	+1.12%	9	Hard
18	Andrea Iannone	01:41.076	+1.158	10	338.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Karel Abraham	01:41.104	+1.186	12	341.4	Soft / Medium	1:41.827	+1.36%	8	Medium
20	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.123	+1.205	11	335.2	Soft / Medium	1:41.402	+0.94%	7	Medium
21	Miguel Oliveira	01:41.212	+1.294	12	335.9	Medium / Medium	1:41.499	+1.03%	10	Medium
22	Bradley Smith	01:41.345	+1.427	11	340.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Sylvain Guintoli	01:42.217	+2.299	10	336.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
24	Hafizh Syahrin	01:44.444	+4.526	6	334.2	Medium / Soft	—			—

Race · 16.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	40:31.175	25	24	Hard / Soft	1:40.932	—	22	Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	+2.660	20	24	Soft / Medium	1:41.089	+0.16%	22	Medium
3	Danilo Petrucci	+4.537	16	24	Soft / Soft	1:41.132	+0.20%	22	Soft
4	Alex Rins	+6.602	13	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.166	+0.23%	21	Medium
5	Jack Miller	+6.870	11	24	Soft / Medium	1:41.222	+0.29%	22	Medium
6	Joan Mir	+7.040	10	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.175	+0.24%	21	Medium
7	Pol Espargaro	+16.144	9	24	Medium / Soft	1:41.508	+0.57%	22	Soft
8	Takaaki Nakagami	+17.969	8	24	Medium / Soft	1:41.574	+0.64%	22	Soft
9	Tito Rabat	+22.661	7	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.708	+0.77%	22	Medium
10	Johann Zarco	+26.228	6	24	Soft / Hard	1:41.863	+0.92%	22	Hard
11	Andrea Iannone	+32.036	5	24	Soft / Soft	1:42.149	+1.21%	21	Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	+44.666	4	24	Medium / Medium	1:42.548	+1.60%	21	Medium
13	Sylvain Guintoli	+51.363	3	24	Medium / Medium	1:43.062	+2.11%	22	Medium
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	1	— / —	—			—
Retired	Andrea Dovizioso		0	2	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Bradley Smith		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	18	Medium / Medium	1:41.060	+0.13%	16	Medium
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	5	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	16	Soft / Hard	1:41.441	+0.50%	14	Hard
Retired	Hafizh Syahrin		0	3	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		0	1	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Karel Abraham		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Maverick Viñales		0	1	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Valentino Rossi		0	2	Soft / Medium	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:40.812*	—	+0.210	Medium	4
Alex Rins	1:40.902	+0.090	+0.217	Medium	20
Andrea Dovizioso	1:40.959*	+0.147	+0.226	Medium	3
Pol Espargaro	1:41.358	+0.546	+0.406	Medium	5
Maverick Viñales	1:41.412*	+0.600	+0.292	Medium	3
Takaaki Nakagami	1:41.423	+0.611	+0.359	Medium	5
Joan Mir	1:41.452	+0.640	+0.562	Medium	5
Fabio Quartararo	1:41.454	+0.642	+0.275	Medium	8
Aleix Espargaro	1:41.535	+0.723	+0.209	Medium	6
Miguel Oliveira	1:41.540	+0.728	+0.193	Medium	14
Sylvain Guintoli	1:41.615*	+0.803	—	Medium	3
Tito Rabat	1:41.721	+0.909	+0.229	Medium	7
Johann Zarco	1:41.721*	+0.909	+0.344	Medium	4
Andrea Iannone	1:41.847	+1.035	+0.224	Medium	5
Valentino Rossi	1:41.964*	+1.152	+0.508	Medium	3
Hafizh Syahrin	1:42.202*	+1.390	+0.491	Medium	3
Danilo Petrucci	1:42.404*	+1.592	+0.574	Medium	3
Bradley Smith	1:42.418*	+1.606	+0.085	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Jack Miller	58%	4
2	Takaaki Nakagami	45%	6
3	Franco Morbidelli	34%	1 ✓
4	Joan Mir	19%	2 ✓
5	Aleix Espargaro	17%	7
6	Andrea Iannone	8%	14
7	Francesco Bagnaia	10%	3
8	Karel Abraham	4%	5
9	Johann Zarco	3%	8
10	Tito Rabat	3%	9
11	Bradley Smith	2%	12
12	Miguel Oliveira	0%	10
13	Sylvain Guintoli	0%	13
14	Hafizh Syahrin	0%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Alex Rins	37%	70%	91%	8
2	Fabio Quartararo	24%	51%	84%	1
3	Cal Crutchlow	16%	48%	82%	9
4	Valentino Rossi	4%	35%	68%	5
5	Maverick Viñales	4%	27%	57%	3
6	Andrea Dovizioso	7%	22%	56%	6
7	Pol Espargaro	1%	12%	45%	12
8	Danilo Petrucci	3%	13%	38%	7
9	Marc Marquez	1%	7%	27%	2
10	Jorge Lorenzo	3%	8%	21%	10
11	Franco Morbidelli	1%	6%	20%	4
12	Joan Mir	0%	1%	12%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Maverick Viñales	3	6	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #12

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	27%	54%	69%	79%	18%	2
Marc Marquez	2	21%	51%	70%	83%	14%	1
Franco Morbidelli	3	15%	44%	63%	82%	15%	—
Valentino Rossi	4	12%	41%	64%	88%	9%	—
Andrea Dovizioso	5	8%	30%	52%	83%	12%	—
Maverick Viñales	6	5%	24%	45%	80%	12%	—
Danilo Petrucci	7	4%	17%	34%	71%	21%	3
Alex Rins	8	3%	12%	28%	70%	19%	4
Cal Crutchlow	9	2%	8%	19%	57%	27%	—
Jorge Lorenzo	10	2%	7%	17%	64%	10%	—
Joan Mir	11	1%	4%	11%	48%	26%	6
Pol Espargaro	12	1%	3%	8%	42%	22%	7
Francesco Bagnaia	13	0%	2%	5%	26%	43%	—
Jack Miller	14	0%	2%	4%	28%	28%	5
Karel Abraham	15	0%	1%	3%	22%	31%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	16	0%	1%	3%	21%	14%	8
Aleix Espargaro	17	0%	0%	2%	15%	24%	—
Johann Zarco	18	0%	0%	1%	14%	9%	10
Tito Rabat	19	0%	0%	1%	9%	19%	9
Miguel Oliveira	20	0%	0%	1%	7%	10%	12
Hafizh Syahrin	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	17%	—
Bradley Smith	22	0%	0%	0%	4%	14%	—
Sylvain Guintoli	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	17%	13
Andrea Iannone	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	27%	11

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,669 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%	Pedro Acosta +0.44%	Aleix Espargaro +0.46%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.36%	Brad Binder +0.45%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.46%	Fabio Quartararo +0.47%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Francesco Bagnaia +0.53%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.78%
S2	Alex Marquez	Joan Mir +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.43%
S4	Joan Mir +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.21%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.45%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Johann Zarco +0.31%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Pedro Acosta +0.51%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.30%	Marc Marquez +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.03%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.37%	Brad Binder +0.41%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.12%	Brad Binder +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.13%
S4	Raul Fernandez	Aleix Espargaro +0.25%	Brad Binder +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.01%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.14%	Brad Binder +0.27%
S2	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S3	Miguel Oliveira +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.19%	Enea Bastianini +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.44%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.42%
S3	Alex Rins +0.21%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.36%	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%	Jorge Martin +0.57%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Johann Zarco	Miguel Oliveira +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.40%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Fabio Quartararo +0.07%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.38%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Jack Miller +0.41%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.34%
S3	Valentino Rossi +0.22%	Pol Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Valentino Rossi +0.16%	Brad Binder +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Joan Mir +0.33%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.18%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Alex Rins +0.35%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Valentino Rossi +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.19%
S2	Jorge Lorenzo +0.15%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%	Maverick Viñales +0.20%
S3	Andrea Iannone	Jorge Lorenzo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.12%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Johann Zarco +0.19%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

52/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 86% of the time (between 49% and 97%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	115	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	103	−12
3	Alex Rins	88	−27
4	Danilo Petrucci	82	−33
5	Valentino Rossi	72	−43
6	Jack Miller	42	−73

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

23/24

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

4.479 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P22 to P9.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Maverick Viñales (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Lorenzo	1:40.322	—	+1.158	Soft	22
Andrea Dovizioso	1:40.336	+0.014	+0.226	Soft	6
Marc Marquez	1:40.422	+0.100	+0.210	Hard	22
Valentino Rossi	1:40.554	+0.232	+0.508	Soft	22
Cal Crutchlow	1:40.654	+0.332	+0.729	Soft	22
Maverick Viñales	1:40.665	+0.343	+0.292	Soft	22
Johann Zarco	1:40.729	+0.407	+0.344	Medium	22
Daniel Pedrosa	1:40.818	+0.496	+0.089	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:40.881	+0.559	+0.105	Soft	15
Tito Rabat	1:40.884	+0.562	+0.229	Soft	16

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Miguel OliveiraKTM
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 25% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/22	23%
2025	7/24	29%
2024	3/23	13%
2023	3/20	15%
2022	8/25	32%
2021	6/21	29%

Tyres at the last edition

2018 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	84%	+0.86%	−0.012	1	2	7.7
Hard	8%	+0.57%	+0.038	0	1	8.0
Medium	8%	+0.45%	−0.006	0	0	6.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.