Round 11 of 19 Aftermath

Austrian Grand Prix 2019

4.348 m · 28 laps · since 1996

09.08 – 11.08.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	39:34.771	25
2	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+0.213	20
3	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+6.117	16
4	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+7.719	13
5	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+8.674	11
6	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+8.695	10
7	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+16.021	9
8	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+16.206	8
9	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+17.350	7
10	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+20.510	6
11	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+22.273	5
12	Johann Zarco	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+25.503	4
13	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+31.962	3
14	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+34.741	2
15	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+48.109	1
16	Andrea Iannone	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+0.000	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 29%	Andrea Dovizioso · 15% · from P3	0.89 / 0.89	1.8 / 1.8

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

10/28

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

0.213 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Stefan Bradl, from P21 to P13.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Maverick Viñales (27 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:02:41	Pol Espargaro	Retired	retired
Race	14:02:41	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:04:21		Jump start	jump start
Race	14:04:49	Hafizh Syahrin	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:11:42	Jack Miller	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:29:36	Tito Rabat	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Fabio Quartararo (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jack Miller	8	4	+4
Alex Rins	7	3	+4
Tito Rabat	15	11	+4
Francesco Bagnaia	5	9	−4
Marc Marquez	1	5	−4
Karel Abraham	17	20	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi	10→4	+4.6
Andrea Dovizioso	3→1	+3.1
Stefan Bradl	21→13	+2.7
Karel Abraham	17→15	−1.9
Andrea Iannone	18→16	−2.2
Takaaki Nakagami	6→11	−5.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	57%	+0.57%	+0.001	0	1	8.4
Soft	43%	+0.47%	+0.014	1	2	8.7

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

23.0 °C

Air

max 24.3 °C

70%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

10 km/h

Wind

gusts 35 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Cal Crutchlow	57%	1 ✓
2	Miguel Oliveira	44%	3
3	Franco Morbidelli	33%	4
4	Johann Zarco	19%	6
5	Francesco Bagnaia	16%	2 ✓
6	Tito Rabat	9%	5
7	Aleix Espargaro	10%	9
8	Andrea Iannone	3%	8
9	Karel Abraham	3%	7
10	Stefan Bradl	3%	11
11	Hafizh Syahrin	2%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	37%	69%	90%	1
2	Maverick Viñales	25%	51%	84%	4
3	Andrea Dovizioso	16%	49%	82%	3
4	Danilo Petrucci	4%	33%	69%	12
5	Fabio Quartararo	3%	27%	56%	2
6	Valentino Rossi	7%	21%	56%	10
7	Jack Miller	1%	12%	44%	8
8	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	13%	37%	6
9	Alex Rins	1%	8%	29%	7
10	Pol Espargaro	3%	8%	21%	11
11	Cal Crutchlow	1%	8%	21%	9
12	Francesco Bagnaia	0%	1%	12%	5

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	29%	61%	75%	85%	14%	2
Fabio Quartararo	2	19%	50%	65%	79%	20%	3
Andrea Dovizioso	3	15%	46%	66%	84%	13%	1
Maverick Viñales	4	13%	39%	61%	83%	13%	5
Francesco Bagnaia	5	6%	21%	37%	58%	39%	7
Takaaki Nakagami	6	6%	24%	46%	78%	15%	11
Alex Rins	7	4%	16%	35%	70%	22%	6
Jack Miller	8	3%	12%	27%	62%	27%	—
Cal Crutchlow	9	2%	8%	21%	59%	27%	—
Valentino Rossi	10	2%	7%	19%	67%	9%	4
Pol Espargaro	11	1%	5%	13%	52%	21%	—
Danilo Petrucci	12	1%	3%	10%	47%	20%	9
Miguel Oliveira	13	1%	3%	9%	47%	7%	8
Franco Morbidelli	14	0%	2%	6%	34%	19%	10
Tito Rabat	15	0%	1%	4%	28%	18%	—
Johann Zarco	16	0%	1%	3%	24%	12%	12
Karel Abraham	17	0%	0%	2%	14%	31%	15
Andrea Iannone	18	0%	1%	1%	11%	26%	16
Aleix Espargaro	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	25%	14
Hafizh Syahrin	20	0%	0%	1%	7%	21%	—
Stefan Bradl	21	0%	0%	1%	5%	21%	13

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,347 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.27%
S2	Jorge Lorenzo +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.34%	Pedro Acosta +0.37%
S3	Fermin Aldeguer +0.10%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%	Jorge Martin +0.37%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.18%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.49%

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

62/100

Position index

11%

Pole wins

67%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 33% of the time (between 12% and 65%; 9 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	210	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	147	−63
3	Danilo Petrucci	129	−81
4	Alex Rins	114	−96
5	Maverick Viñales	91	−119
6	Valentino Rossi	90	−120

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

10/28

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

0.130 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P14 to P6.

Longest battle: Jorge Lorenzo vs Marc Marquez (28 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Andrea Dovizioso	1:24.584	—	+0.226	Medium	16
Marc Marquez	1:24.707	+0.123	+0.210	Hard	21
Danilo Petrucci	1:25.160	+0.576	+0.574	Medium	20
Valentino Rossi	1:25.185	+0.601	+0.508	Medium	25
Johann Zarco	1:25.410	+0.826	+0.344	Soft	26
Andrea Iannone	1:25.439	+0.855	+0.224	Medium	12
Maverick Viñales	1:25.558	+0.974	+0.292	Soft	25
Takaaki Nakagami	1:25.804	+1.220	+0.359	Medium	25
Hafizh Syahrin	1:25.828	+1.244	+0.491	Soft	22
Jack Miller	1:25.836	+1.252	+0.105	Soft	15

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Pedro AcostaKTM
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Brad BinderKTM
2020Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	1/22	5%
2025	2/20	10%
2024	2/24	8%
2023	3/23	13%
2022	5/25	20%
2021	3/20	15%

Tyres at the last edition

2018 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	48%	+1.01%	−0.006	0	1	10.9
Soft	48%	+1.56%	+0.018	1	1	13.1
Hard	4%	+0.15%	+0.048	0	1	2.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.