Round 19 of 19 Aftermath

Valencia Grand Prix 2018

4.005 m · 27 laps · since 1999

16.11 – 18.11.2018

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	24:03.408	25
2	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+2.750	20
3	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+7.406	16
4	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Team	+8.647	13
5	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+13.351	11
6	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+32.288	10
7	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+32.806	9
8	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+33.111	8
9	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+36.376	7
10	Hafizh Syahrin	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+37.198	6
11	Scott Redding	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+44.326	5
12	Jorge Lorenzo	Ducati	Ducati Team	+46.146	4
13	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+52.809	3
14	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+70.628	2
15	Jordi Torres	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+76.739	1
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini		0
DNF	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	Retired	0
DNF	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR		0
DNF	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing		0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS		0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing		0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team		0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP		0
DNF	Thomas Luthi	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS		0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Maverick Viñales · 30%	Andrea Dovizioso · 15% · from P3	0.78 / 0.78	3.9 / 3.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Pol Espargaro	1:42.990	—	+0.406	Wet-Soft	12
Michele Pirro	1:43.244	+0.254	+0.267	Wet-Soft	12
Daniel Pedrosa	1:43.558	+0.568	+0.089	Wet-Soft	5
Bradley Smith	1:44.945	+1.955	+0.085	Wet-Soft	11
Alvaro Bautista	1:45.031	+2.041	+0.086	Wet-Soft	5
Stefan Bradl	1:45.064	+2.074	+0.530	Wet-Soft	12
Hafizh Syahrin	1:45.228	+2.238	+0.491	Wet-Soft	12
Karel Abraham	1:47.706	+4.716	—	Wet-Soft	12
Jordi Torres	1:47.804	+4.814	+0.140	Wet-Soft	12

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

13/14

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

2.750 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Bradley Smith, from P22 to P8.

Longest battle: Bradley Smith vs Johann Zarco (11 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:48		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:05:04	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:08:19	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:11:14	Michele Pirro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:11:25	Danilo Petrucci	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:11:46	Thomas Luthi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:12:02	Pol Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:12:18	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:16:12	Andrea Iannone	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:21:18	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:21:28	Maverick Viñales	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:23:56	Bradley Smith	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:25:10		Red flag	Red flag

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Alex Rins (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Valentino Rossi	16	3	+13
Alvaro Bautista	19	7	+12
Bradley Smith	22	10	+12

Race stopped with a red flag: this compares with Saturday’s grid, but the restart used the order from the first part. Places gained are approximate.

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Bradley Smith	22→8	+8.3
Scott Redding	24→11	+6.6
Stefan Bradl	20→9	+6.0
Karel Abraham	18→14	−0.2
Valentino Rossi	16→13	−0.5
Jorge Lorenzo	13→12	−1.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Wet-Soft	100%	+2.00%	−0.044	1	3	8.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

13.8 °C

Air

max 14.2 °C

93%

Humidity

6.5 mm

Rain

14 km/h

Wind

gusts 30 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 16.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:39.767	—	18	312.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:40.687	—	11	Wet-Soft
2	Jack Miller	01:39.873	+0.106	13	308.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
3	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.907	+0.140	19	309.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:41.236	+0.55%	12	Wet-Soft
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.179	+0.412	14	312.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.297	+2.59%	10	Wet-Soft
5	Daniel Pedrosa	01:40.467	+0.700	18	303.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.295	+1.60%	14	Wet-Soft
6	Andrea Iannone	01:40.685	+0.918	19	305.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.415	+3.70%	11	Wet-Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	01:40.772	+1.005	17	308.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:41.728	+1.03%	8	Wet-Soft
8	Michele Pirro	01:40.836	+1.069	17	308.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.883	+2.18%	9	Wet-Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	01:40.892	+1.125	21	310.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.007	+3.30%	12	Wet-Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:40.965	+1.198	22	307.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.642	+1.94%	14	Wet-Soft
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.967	+1.200	15	305.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.694	+3.98%	7	Wet-Soft
12	Valentino Rossi	01:41.015	+1.248	22	306.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.277	+1.58%	12	Wet-Soft
13	Johann Zarco	01:41.146	+1.379	22	309.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.781	+2.08%	14	Wet-Soft
14	Karel Abraham	01:41.160	+1.393	19	301.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.200	+3.49%	11	Wet-Soft
15	Xavier Simeon	01:41.277	+1.510	14	306.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.252	+3.54%	7	Wet-Soft
16	Stefan Bradl	01:41.479	+1.712	14	299.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.806	+3.10%	7	Wet-Soft
17	Bradley Smith	01:41.489	+1.722	17	300.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.669	+3.96%	13	Wet-Soft
18	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.713	+1.946	21	304.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.466	+3.75%	13	Wet-Soft
19	Jorge Lorenzo	01:41.782	+2.015	15	308.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:42.471	+2.704	22	299.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.750	+4.04%	13	Wet-Soft
21	Alvaro Bautista	01:42.617	+2.850	11	310.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.010	+3.30%	7	Wet-Soft
22	Scott Redding	01:42.893	+3.126	16	303.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.179	+3.47%	6	Wet-Soft
23	Thomas Luthi	01:43.000	+3.233	21	304.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.842	+5.12%	8	Wet-Soft
24	Hafizh Syahrin	01:43.804	+4.037	20	298.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.450	+5.72%	11	Wet-Soft
25	Jordi Torres	01:45.001	+5.234	16	299.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:48.548	+7.81%	10	Wet-Soft

FP2 · 16.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.318	—	14	299.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.446	+0.63%	7	Wet-Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:41.725	+0.407	21	298.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:43.294	+0.48%	11	Wet-Soft
3	Valentino Rossi	01:42.081	+0.763	16	297.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:42.802	—	6	Wet-Soft
4	Andrea Iannone	01:42.365	+1.047	14	298.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.618	+0.79%	7	Wet-Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:42.385	+1.067	7	302.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
6	Pol Espargaro	01:42.655	+1.337	14	302.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.296	+0.48%	7	Wet-Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	01:42.746	+1.428	20	302.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.617	+1.77%	4	Wet-Soft
8	Scott Redding	01:42.857	+1.539	18	300.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:45.436	+2.56%	6	Wet-Soft
9	Bradley Smith	01:43.009	+1.691	17	294.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.271	+2.40%	9	Wet-Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:43.051	+1.733	20	299.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.764	+1.91%	6	Wet-Soft
11	Xavier Simeon	01:43.113	+1.795	5	301.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
12	Andrea Dovizioso	01:43.250	+1.932	21	304.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:45.693	+2.81%	12	Wet-Soft
13	Jack Miller	01:43.409	+2.091	5	297.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
14	Hafizh Syahrin	01:43.727	+2.409	21	300.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.243	+3.35%	9	Wet-Soft
15	Jorge Lorenzo	01:43.798	+2.480	13	290.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.853	+2.97%	5	Wet-Soft
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:43.844	+2.526	17	300.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.512	+2.64%	6	Wet-Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:43.846	+2.528	22	287.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.380	+3.48%	13	Wet-Soft
18	Franco Morbidelli	01:43.854	+2.536	19	296.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.465	+2.59%	10	Wet-Soft
19	Thomas Luthi	01:43.858	+2.540	15	297.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.670	+1.82%	8	Wet-Soft
20	Johann Zarco	01:44.261	+2.943	8	299.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
21	Michele Pirro	01:44.681	+3.363	14	299.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
22	Stefan Bradl	01:44.732	+3.414	3	287.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
23	Karel Abraham	01:45.260	+3.942	6	292.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
24	Daniel Pedrosa	01:45.401	+4.083	5	291.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
25	Jordi Torres	01:45.975	+4.657	16	293.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.799	+4.86%	9	Wet-Soft

FP3 · 17.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.712	—	20	308.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:41.073	+0.33%	7	Wet-Soft
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.800	+0.088	19	311.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:40.739	—	7	Wet-Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:39.826	+0.114	21	314.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.405	+0.66%	9	Wet-Medium
4	Jack Miller	01:39.912	+0.200	15	308.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
5	Johann Zarco	01:40.141	+0.429	19	310.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:40.851	+0.11%	11	Wet-Soft
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:40.185	+0.473	24	305.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.634	+1.88%	18	Wet-Soft
7	Pol Espargaro	01:40.275	+0.563	21	308.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:41.678	+0.93%	12	Wet-Soft
8	Alex Rins	01:40.417	+0.705	19	309.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:41.339	+0.60%	12	Wet-Soft
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.530	+0.818	11	307.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
10	Michele Pirro	01:40.586	+0.874	11	308.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	—			—
11	Maverick Viñales	01:40.647	+0.935	22	310.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:41.869	+1.12%	14	Wet-Soft
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.675	+0.963	21	307.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:41.592	+0.85%	12	Wet-Soft
13	Valentino Rossi	01:40.750	+1.038	19	308.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:41.402	+0.66%	10	Wet-Soft
14	Stefan Bradl	01:40.806	+1.094	22	306.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:43.517	+2.76%	13	Wet-Soft
15	Andrea Iannone	01:40.871	+1.159	14	309.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:40.900	+1.188	20	307.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.188	+1.44%	12	Wet-Soft
17	Jorge Lorenzo	01:41.026	+1.314	17	310.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:43.476	+2.72%	6	Wet-Soft
18	Scott Redding	01:41.357	+1.645	17	305.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
19	Bradley Smith	01:41.362	+1.650	22	312.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:43.980	+3.22%	17	Wet-Medium
20	Karel Abraham	01:41.813	+2.101	19	307.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:43.466	+2.71%	9	Wet-Soft
21	Hafizh Syahrin	01:41.832	+2.120	19	308.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:42.570	+1.82%	14	Wet-Soft
22	Takaaki Nakagami	01:41.992	+2.280	23	305.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:42.621	+1.87%	18	Wet-Soft
23	Thomas Luthi	01:42.040	+2.328	19	304.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:44.259	+3.49%	9	Wet-Soft
24	Jordi Torres	01:43.439	+3.727	19	299.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:46.092	+5.31%	12	Wet-Soft

FP4 · 17.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:32.571	—	14	311.9	Soft / Soft	1:33.801	—	7	Soft
2	Johann Zarco	01:33.072	+0.501	17	312.9	Soft / Soft	1:34.552	+0.80%	10	Soft
3	Pol Espargaro	01:33.219	+0.648	12	315.2	Soft / Soft	1:38.555	+5.07%	9	Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.284	+0.713	9	307.9	Soft / Soft	1:35.885	+2.22%	7	Soft
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.577	+1.006	16	315.9	Soft / Soft	1:36.347	+2.71%	9	Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	01:33.626	+1.055	14	315.0	Soft / Soft	1:36.027	+2.37%	9	Soft
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.772	+1.201	11	314.6	Soft / Soft	1:36.702	+3.09%	6	Soft
8	Hafizh Syahrin	01:33.809	+1.238	9	312.9	Soft / Soft	1:36.926	+3.33%	5	Soft
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.817	+1.246	15	309.5	Soft / Soft	1:36.394	+2.76%	7	Soft
10	Andrea Iannone	01:33.825	+1.254	11	316.2	Soft / Soft	1:35.754	+2.08%	8	Soft
11	Michele Pirro	01:34.002	+1.431	12	316.6	Soft / Soft	1:36.102	+2.45%	8	Soft
12	Alex Rins	01:34.007	+1.436	10	312.6	Soft / Soft	1:37.659	+4.11%	7	Soft
13	Jack Miller	01:34.164	+1.593	12	317.5	Soft / Soft	1:35.914	+2.25%	8	Soft
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:34.219	+1.648	17	314.0	Soft / Soft	1:35.256	+1.55%	9	Soft
15	Bradley Smith	01:34.342	+1.771	12	309.7	Soft / Soft	1:36.526	+2.91%	8	Soft
16	Jorge Lorenzo	01:34.478	+1.907	16	313.7	Soft / Soft	1:36.814	+3.21%	8	Soft
17	Thomas Luthi	01:34.563	+1.992	13	308.3	Soft / Soft	1:35.491	+1.80%	8	Soft
18	Stefan Bradl	01:34.727	+2.156	14	316.9	Soft / Soft	1:37.388	+3.82%	11	Soft
19	Daniel Pedrosa	01:34.999	+2.428	14	314.0	Soft / Soft	1:39.055	+5.60%	5	Soft
20	Karel Abraham	01:35.059	+2.488	13	313.1	Soft / Soft	1:36.162	+2.52%	7	Soft
21	Franco Morbidelli	01:35.295	+2.724	15	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:39.608	+6.19%	8	Soft
22	Valentino Rossi	01:35.884	+3.313	13	308.2	Soft / Soft	1:37.677	+4.13%	7	Soft
23	Scott Redding	01:36.264	+3.693	8	308.6	Soft / Soft	1:38.106	+4.59%	6	Soft
24	Jordi Torres	01:37.402	+4.831	13	309.5	Soft / Soft	1:40.241	+6.87%	9	Soft

Q1 · 17.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Andrea Iannone	01:31.382	—	9	313.6	Soft / Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:31.858	+0.476	9	314.9	Soft / Soft
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:31.900	+0.518	9	315.4	Soft / Soft
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.928	+0.546	9	307.6	Soft / Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.385	+1.003	9	308.8	Medium / Soft
6	Valentino Rossi	01:32.452	+1.070	9	311.7	Soft / Soft
7	Thomas Luthi	01:32.545	+1.163	9	308.9	Medium / Soft
8	Karel Abraham	01:32.547	+1.165	8	313.6	Soft / Soft
9	Alvaro Bautista	01:32.568	+1.186	9	314.3	Soft / Soft
10	Stefan Bradl	01:32.708	+1.326	9	319.0	Medium / Soft
11	Hafizh Syahrin	01:32.749	+1.367	9	312.1	Soft / Soft
12	Bradley Smith	01:33.011	+1.629	7	309.2	Soft / Soft
13	Jordi Torres	01:34.427	+3.045	8	311.4	Soft / Soft
14	Scott Redding	01:35.171	+3.789	6	306.7	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 17.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Maverick Viñales	01:31.312	—	8	313.7	Medium / Soft
2	Alex Rins	01:31.380	+0.068	9	312.0	Medium / Soft
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.392	+0.080	9	318.5	Medium / Soft
4	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.414	+0.102	8	314.3	Medium / Soft
5	Marc Marquez	01:31.442	+0.130	5	315.9	Medium / Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	01:31.577	+0.265	8	315.0	Soft / Soft
7	Andrea Iannone	01:31.629	+0.317	9	311.6	Medium / Soft
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.630	+0.318	9	308.2	Medium / Soft
9	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.140	+0.828	9	314.3	Medium / Soft
10	Jack Miller	01:32.145	+0.833	6	311.0	Medium / Soft
11	Johann Zarco	01:32.179	+0.867	6	313.1	Medium / Soft
12	Michele Pirro	01:32.310	+0.998	8	318.4	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 18.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:40.154	—	11	307.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:41.342	—	8	Wet-Soft
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.959	+0.805	11	306.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.517	+2.15%	7	Wet-Soft
3	Valentino Rossi	01:41.109	+0.955	12	304.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.422	+1.07%	10	Wet-Soft
4	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.168	+1.014	12	306.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.138	+0.79%	9	Wet-Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:41.183	+1.029	12	302.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.354	+1.00%	10	Wet-Soft
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:41.573	+1.419	12	308.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:44.250	+2.87%	10	Wet-Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.583	+1.429	10	298.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.774	+1.41%	6	Wet-Soft
8	Pol Espargaro	01:41.590	+1.436	12	302.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.142	+1.78%	10	Wet-Soft
9	Bradley Smith	01:41.795	+1.641	12	302.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.932	+1.57%	10	Wet-Soft
10	Andrea Iannone	01:41.809	+1.655	7	297.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.783	+3.40%	5	Wet-Soft
11	Maverick Viñales	01:41.871	+1.717	12	304.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.463	+2.09%	10	Wet-Soft
12	Alex Rins	01:41.884	+1.730	11	303.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:43.531	+2.16%	8	Wet-Soft
13	Daniel Pedrosa	01:41.966	+1.812	11	300.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.111	+2.73%	7	Wet-Soft
14	Michele Pirro	01:41.987	+1.833	10	309.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	1:42.800	+1.44%	5	Wet-Medium
15	Scott Redding	01:42.454	+2.300	9	301.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:44.586	+3.20%	6	Wet-Soft
16	Johann Zarco	01:42.458	+2.304	9	304.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.953	+1.59%	7	Wet-Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:42.469	+2.315	8	299.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.385	+3.00%	6	Wet-Soft
18	Alvaro Bautista	01:42.490	+2.336	11	304.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.644	+2.27%	8	Wet-Soft
19	Stefan Bradl	01:42.574	+2.420	11	297.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.832	+3.44%	9	Wet-Soft
20	Hafizh Syahrin	01:42.726	+2.572	11	304.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.850	+2.48%	8	Wet-Soft
21	Jorge Lorenzo	01:42.774	+2.620	11	305.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.597	+3.21%	9	Wet-Soft
22	Thomas Luthi	01:42.936	+2.782	12	300.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.970	+2.59%	10	Wet-Soft
23	Karel Abraham	01:43.665	+3.511	7	297.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
24	Jordi Torres	01:45.068	+4.914	11	301.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:48.101	+6.67%	8	Wet-Soft

Race (RAC2) · 18.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	24:03.408	25	14	— / —	—			—
2	Alex Rins	+2.750	20	14	— / —	—			—
3	Pol Espargaro	+7.406	16	14	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.990	—	12	Wet-Soft
4	Michele Pirro	+8.647	13	14	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.244	+0.25%	12	Wet-Soft
5	Daniel Pedrosa	+13.351	11	14	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.558	+0.55%	5	Wet-Soft
6	Takaaki Nakagami	+32.288	10	14	— / —	—			—
7	Johann Zarco	+32.806	9	14	— / —	—			—
8	Bradley Smith	+33.111	8	14	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.945	+1.90%	11	Wet-Soft
9	Stefan Bradl	+36.376	7	14	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.064	+2.01%	12	Wet-Soft
10	Hafizh Syahrin	+37.198	6	14	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.228	+2.17%	12	Wet-Soft
11	Scott Redding	+44.326	5	14	— / —	—			—
12	Jorge Lorenzo	+46.146	4	14	— / —	—			—
13	Valentino Rossi	+52.809	3	14	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
14	Karel Abraham	+70.628	2	14	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.706	+4.58%	12	Wet-Soft
15	Jordi Torres	+76.739	1	14	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.804	+4.67%	12	Wet-Soft
—	Aleix Espargaro		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Alvaro Bautista		0	7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.031	+1.98%	5	Wet-Soft
—	Andrea Iannone		0	0	— / —	—			—
—	Danilo Petrucci		0	0	— / —	—			—
—	Franco Morbidelli		0	0	— / —	—			—
—	Jack Miller		0	0	— / —	—			—
—	Marc Marquez		0	0	— / —	—			—
—	Maverick Viñales		0	0	— / —	—			—
—	Thomas Luthi		0	0	— / —	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Maverick Viñales	58%	2 ✓
2	Hafizh Syahrin	46%	11
3	Takaaki Nakagami	34%	4
4	Andrea Iannone	17%	1 ✓
5	Alvaro Bautista	17%	9
6	Bradley Smith	8%	12
7	Jorge Lorenzo	9%	3
8	Thomas Luthi	4%	7
9	Stefan Bradl	3%	10
10	Karel Abraham	3%	8
11	Franco Morbidelli	2%	5
12	Valentino Rossi	0%	6
13	Scott Redding	0%	14
14	Jordi Torres	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	38%	71%	92%	5
2	Johann Zarco	24%	52%	85%	11
3	Pol Espargaro	15%	47%	82%	6
4	Aleix Espargaro	5%	36%	70%	8
5	Andrea Dovizioso	4%	27%	57%	3
6	Maverick Viñales	7%	21%	56%	1
7	Danilo Petrucci	1%	10%	44%	4
8	Andrea Iannone	3%	14%	37%	7
9	Michele Pirro	1%	7%	26%	12
10	Alex Rins	3%	8%	22%	2
11	Jack Miller	1%	7%	20%	10
12	Daniel Pedrosa	0%	1%	12%	9

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Maverick Viñales	1	30%	62%	78%	89%	9%	—
Alex Rins	2	18%	46%	62%	75%	23%	2
Andrea Dovizioso	3	15%	48%	67%	85%	13%	1
Danilo Petrucci	4	10%	34%	53%	73%	21%	—
Marc Marquez	5	7%	29%	54%	81%	13%	—
Pol Espargaro	6	5%	20%	39%	70%	23%	3
Andrea Iannone	7	4%	16%	32%	66%	27%	—
Aleix Espargaro	8	3%	13%	28%	64%	24%	—
Daniel Pedrosa	9	3%	10%	23%	68%	13%	5
Jack Miller	10	1%	6%	14%	53%	26%	—
Johann Zarco	11	1%	5%	13%	58%	10%	7
Michele Pirro	12	1%	4%	9%	45%	20%	4
Jorge Lorenzo	13	1%	3%	8%	43%	10%	12
Takaaki Nakagami	14	0%	2%	5%	35%	14%	6
Franco Morbidelli	15	0%	1%	4%	30%	5%	—
Valentino Rossi	16	0%	1%	3%	25%	8%	13
Thomas Luthi	17	0%	1%	2%	13%	18%	—
Karel Abraham	18	0%	0%	1%	8%	32%	14
Alvaro Bautista	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	20%	—
Stefan Bradl	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	22%	9
Hafizh Syahrin	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	18%	10
Bradley Smith	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	13%	8
Jordi Torres	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	11%	15
Scott Redding	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	15%	11

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,007 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.41%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Augusto Fernandez +0.33%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Alex Marquez +0.47%
S2	Raul Fernandez +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.31%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.34%	Raul Fernandez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.35%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%
S3	Augusto Fernandez +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Brad Binder +0.39%
S4	Brad Binder +0.05%	Johann Zarco +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.02%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%	Brad Binder +0.25%
S2	Jack Miller +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%
S3	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.11%	Johann Zarco +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Brad Binder +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S2	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.16%	Joan Mir +0.28%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Johann Zarco +0.22%	Brad Binder +0.29%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.37%	Franco Morbidelli +0.40%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Pol Espargaro +0.35%	Miguel Oliveira +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.39%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Alex Rins +0.01%	Andrea Iannone +0.42%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.36%	Pol Espargaro +0.51%	Michele Pirro +0.58%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.52%	Aleix Espargaro +0.83%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.85%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.19%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.37%

Fastest per sector: 2018

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

91/100

Position index

43%

Pole wins

71%

Front row on the podium

0.83

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	321	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	245	−76
3	Valentino Rossi	198	−123
4	Maverick Viñales	193	−128
5	Alex Rins	169	−152
6	Johann Zarco	158	−163

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2017 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

1/30

Laps led by the winner

Daniel Pedrosa

0.337 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Michael Van Der Mark, from P25 to P17.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Jorge Lorenzo (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 24% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	7/24	29%
2023	7/21	33%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	2/20	10%
2020	3/21	14%
2019	7/22	32%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet