Round 18 of 19 Aftermath

Malaysian Grand Prix 2018

Petronas Sepang International Circuit Malaysia

5.543 m · 20 laps · since 1999

02.11 – 04.11.2018

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	40:32.372	25
2	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+1.898	20
3	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+2.474	16
4	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+4.667	13
5	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+6.190	11
6	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+11.248	10
7	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+15.611	9
8	Jack Miller	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+19.009	8
9	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+22.921	7
10	Hafizh Syahrin	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+26.919	6
11	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+29.503	5
12	Franco Morbidelli	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+30.933	4
13	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+35.322	3
14	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+37.912	2
15	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+39.675	1
16	Thomas Luthi	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+41.820	0
17	Xavier Simeon	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+43.978	0
18	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+58.288	0
19	Scott Redding	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+60.191	0
DNF	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	Retired	0
DNF	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Johann Zarco · 28%	Marc Marquez · 5% · from P7	0.47 / 0.47	4.0 / 4.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	2:01.066	—	+0.210	Soft	18
Valentino Rossi	2:01.069	+0.003	+0.508	Soft	17
Maverick Viñales	2:01.330	+0.264	+0.292	Soft	18
Alex Rins	2:01.378	+0.312	+0.217	Soft	18
Johann Zarco	2:01.454	+0.388	+0.344	Soft	18
Daniel Pedrosa	2:01.546	+0.480	+0.089	Soft	18
Andrea Dovizioso	2:01.700	+0.634	+0.226	Soft	18
Alvaro Bautista	2:02.013	+0.947	+0.086	Soft	18
Danilo Petrucci	2:02.296	+1.230	+0.574	Soft	18
Hafizh Syahrin	2:02.366	+1.300	+0.491	Soft	18
Jack Miller	2:02.376	+1.310	+0.105	Medium	18
Pol Espargaro	2:02.506	+1.440	+0.406	Soft	14
Aleix Espargaro	2:02.578	+1.512	+0.209	Soft	18
Franco Morbidelli	2:02.702	+1.636	+0.512	Soft	18
Stefan Bradl	2:02.902	+1.836	+0.530	Soft	18
Takaaki Nakagami	2:02.954	+1.888	+0.359	Soft	18
Bradley Smith	2:03.115	+2.049	+0.085	Soft	18
Thomas Luthi	2:03.223	+2.157	+0.237	Soft	18
Xavier Simeon	2:03.234	+2.168	—	Soft	18
Scott Redding	2:04.306	+3.240	+0.263	Soft	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/20

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.898 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hafizh Syahrin, from P23 to P10.

Longest battle: Takaaki Nakagami vs Thomas Luthi (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	13:02:40		Jump start	Jump start
Race	13:02:55	Andrea Iannone	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:08:45	Karel Abraham	Retired	Retired
Race	13:13:36	Michele Pirro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:33:31	Valentino Rossi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:35:12	Pol Espargaro	Retired	Retired
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #93

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Valentino Rossi (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Hafizh Syahrin	23	11	+12
Stefan Bradl	20	15	+5
Bradley Smith	17	13	+4
Xavier Simeon	15	22	−7
Aleix Espargaro	12	17	−5
Scott Redding	13	18	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Hafizh Syahrin	23→10	+7.0
Marc Marquez	7→1	+5.7
Alex Rins	8→2	+5.3
Xavier Simeon	15→17	−5.2
Scott Redding	13→19	−8.5
Valentino Rossi	2→18	−14.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	96%	+1.07%	+0.032	1	3	10.1
Medium	5%	+1.08%	+0.091	0	0	8.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

29.6 °C

Air

max 30.8 °C

75%

Humidity

6.2 mm

Rain

4 km/h

Wind

gusts 27 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 02.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:59.697	—	17	324.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Valentino Rossi	01:59.767	+0.070	18	322.4	Soft / Soft	2:03.162	+1.52%	7	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:59.928	+0.231	18	322.4	Medium / Soft	2:01.323	—	9	Medium
4	Jack Miller	01:59.941	+0.244	18	321.6	Medium / Soft	2:02.510	+0.98%	5	Medium
5	Danilo Petrucci	02:00.182	+0.485	18	326.1	Medium / Soft	2:03.650	+1.92%	5	Medium
6	Alex Rins	02:00.241	+0.544	19	322.2	Medium / Soft	2:02.157	+0.69%	5	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.552	+0.855	16	320.4	Medium / Soft	2:03.964	+2.18%	6	Medium
8	Alvaro Bautista	02:00.664	+0.967	18	322.9	Soft / Soft	2:02.060	+0.61%	10	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	02:00.726	+1.029	16	319.8	Medium / Medium	2:03.744	+2.00%	5	Medium
10	Marc Marquez	02:00.801	+1.104	17	325.4	Medium / Medium	2:01.574	+0.21%	5	Medium
11	Andrea Iannone	02:00.973	+1.276	17	322.0	Medium / Soft	2:04.304	+2.46%	5	Medium
12	Takaaki Nakagami	02:01.199	+1.502	17	315.2	Medium / Soft	2:04.773	+2.84%	10	Medium
13	Franco Morbidelli	02:01.209	+1.512	17	318.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Bradley Smith	02:01.230	+1.533	16	313.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Stefan Bradl	02:01.313	+1.616	17	323.2	Medium / Soft	2:04.275	+2.43%	5	Medium
16	Daniel Pedrosa	02:01.320	+1.623	17	322.7	Medium / Medium	2:01.779	+0.38%	5	Medium
17	Hafizh Syahrin	02:01.419	+1.722	15	316.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Scott Redding	02:01.690	+1.993	14	316.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Pol Espargaro	02:01.825	+2.128	15	322.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Thomas Luthi	02:01.922	+2.225	14	313.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Karel Abraham	02:02.097	+2.400	14	317.5	Medium / Soft	2:05.637	+3.56%	6	Medium
22	Xavier Simeon	02:02.101	+2.404	13	317.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
23	Jordi Torres	02:02.451	+2.754	16	320.0	Soft / Soft	2:04.891	+2.94%	5	Medium
24	Jorge Lorenzo	02:03.204	+3.507	13	313.5	Soft / Soft	2:07.214	+4.86%	5	Medium

FP2 · 02.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Rins	01:59.608	—	19	322.3	Medium / Soft	2:01.640	+0.72%	10	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:59.701	+0.093	18	323.8	Medium / Soft	2:01.175	+0.33%	11	Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:59.771	+0.163	16	321.5	Medium / Soft	2:02.202	+1.18%	5	Medium
4	Maverick Viñales	01:59.802	+0.194	17	321.4	Soft / Soft	2:00.773	—	6	Medium
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:59.811	+0.203	16	324.6	Medium / Soft	2:01.521	+0.62%	5	Medium
6	Valentino Rossi	02:00.017	+0.409	18	321.2	Soft / Soft	2:01.328	+0.46%	10	Hard
7	Andrea Dovizioso	02:00.091	+0.483	15	326.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Johann Zarco	02:00.159	+0.551	17	320.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Andrea Iannone	02:00.502	+0.894	18	320.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Daniel Pedrosa	02:00.579	+0.971	19	324.3	Medium / Soft	2:02.206	+1.19%	7	Hard
11	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.829	+1.221	18	316.1	Medium / Soft	2:02.972	+1.82%	11	Soft
12	Alvaro Bautista	02:00.980	+1.372	18	326.1	Medium / Soft	2:01.268	+0.41%	11	Soft
13	Franco Morbidelli	02:00.981	+1.373	17	317.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Pol Espargaro	02:01.020	+1.412	17	319.5	Medium / Soft	2:02.874	+1.74%	4	Soft
15	Bradley Smith	02:01.302	+1.694	18	318.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Stefan Bradl	02:01.561	+1.953	17	323.1	Medium / Medium	2:03.001	+1.85%	5	Soft
17	Karel Abraham	02:01.684	+2.076	15	321.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Thomas Luthi	02:01.743	+2.135	15	315.6	Hard / Soft	2:03.719	+2.44%	5	Soft
19	Aleix Espargaro	02:01.766	+2.158	18	323.7	Medium / Soft	2:02.113	+1.11%	5	Soft
20	Hafizh Syahrin	02:01.894	+2.286	15	315.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Xavier Simeon	02:01.900	+2.292	14	316.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Jordi Torres	02:01.940	+2.332	19	319.0	Medium / Soft	2:03.140	+1.96%	8	Medium
23	Scott Redding	02:02.338	+2.730	13	316.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
24	Jorge Lorenzo	02:04.636	+5.028	9	317.2	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP3 · 03.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:59.231	—	17	325.2	Soft / Soft	2:01.779	+0.18%	6	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:59.257	+0.026	17	325.4	Medium / Soft	2:01.565	—	5	Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:59.375	+0.144	18	325.4	Medium / Soft	2:02.302	+0.61%	9	Medium
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:59.599	+0.368	18	325.3	Medium / Soft	2:02.197	+0.52%	5	Soft
5	Johann Zarco	01:59.655	+0.424	18	321.5	Medium / Soft	2:03.260	+1.39%	6	Soft
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:59.671	+0.440	16	328.6	Medium / Soft	2:02.564	+0.82%	5	Soft
7	Valentino Rossi	01:59.773	+0.542	18	323.8	Medium / Soft	2:02.000	+0.36%	10	Soft
8	Andrea Iannone	01:59.799	+0.568	18	325.4	Medium / Soft	2:02.354	+0.65%	8	Soft
9	Alvaro Bautista	02:00.130	+0.899	19	326.3	Medium / Soft	2:02.335	+0.63%	5	Soft
10	Franco Morbidelli	02:00.405	+1.174	16	321.0	Medium / Soft	2:03.320	+1.44%	5	Medium
11	Stefan Bradl	02:00.428	+1.197	18	325.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Pol Espargaro	02:00.513	+1.282	17	320.9	Medium / Soft	2:03.664	+1.73%	6	Medium
13	Hafizh Syahrin	02:00.558	+1.327	16	319.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.638	+1.407	18	319.0	Medium / Soft	2:02.478	+0.75%	11	Soft
15	Alex Rins	02:00.649	+1.418	18	324.8	Soft / Medium	2:02.720	+0.95%	5	Soft
16	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.737	+1.506	17	323.0	Medium / Soft	2:04.000	+2.00%	10	Soft
17	Andrea Dovizioso	02:00.810	+1.579	17	325.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Michele Pirro	02:01.090	+1.859	15	319.0	Medium / Soft	2:03.114	+1.27%	5	Soft
19	Bradley Smith	02:01.223	+1.992	17	318.4	Soft / Soft	2:03.624	+1.69%	7	Medium
20	Karel Abraham	02:01.385	+2.154	15	318.2	Medium / Soft	2:04.879	+2.73%	5	Soft
21	Thomas Luthi	02:01.470	+2.239	17	318.0	Medium / Soft	2:04.574	+2.48%	5	Medium
22	Scott Redding	02:02.442	+3.211	14	318.9	Hard / Soft	2:04.942	+2.78%	5	Soft
23	Jordi Torres	02:03.142	+3.911	13	323.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
24	Xavier Simeon	02:03.455	+4.224	11	316.2	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 03.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	02:00.083	—	10	323.9	Medium / Soft	2:00.383	—	5	Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	02:00.192	+0.109	6	322.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Andrea Dovizioso	02:00.295	+0.212	10	320.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Johann Zarco	02:00.346	+0.263	9	321.2	Medium / Soft	2:00.566	+0.15%	5	Soft
5	Alex Rins	02:00.503	+0.420	11	322.0	Medium / Soft	2:00.588	+0.17%	5	Soft
6	Andrea Iannone	02:00.614	+0.531	10	322.9	Medium / Soft	2:00.884	+0.42%	5	Soft
7	Valentino Rossi	02:00.626	+0.543	9	322.5	Medium / Soft	2:01.014	+0.52%	5	Soft
8	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.818	+0.735	10	320.5	Medium / Soft	2:01.144	+0.63%	5	Soft
9	Daniel Pedrosa	02:00.829	+0.746	9	316.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Danilo Petrucci	02:01.074	+0.991	10	320.9	Medium / Soft	2:01.596	+1.01%	5	Soft
11	Franco Morbidelli	02:01.077	+0.994	11	318.5	Medium / Soft	2:01.390	+0.84%	5	Soft
12	Michele Pirro	02:01.275	+1.192	7	309.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Jack Miller	02:01.277	+1.194	9	323.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Stefan Bradl	02:01.343	+1.260	10	321.9	Medium / Medium	2:01.484	+0.92%	5	Medium
15	Hafizh Syahrin	02:01.391	+1.308	9	316.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Alvaro Bautista	02:01.544	+1.461	9	321.6	Medium / Soft	2:01.696	+1.09%	6	Soft
17	Bradley Smith	02:01.757	+1.674	8	307.5	Medium / Medium	2:02.033	+1.37%	5	Medium
18	Karel Abraham	02:01.818	+1.735	7	318.0	Hard / Medium	2:02.135	+1.46%	5	Medium
19	Pol Espargaro	02:01.896	+1.813	7	316.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Scott Redding	02:01.920	+1.837	6	318.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
21	Thomas Luthi	02:02.010	+1.927	9	315.2	Medium / Soft	2:02.098	+1.43%	4	Soft
22	Xavier Simeon	02:02.258	+2.175	10	316.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Takaaki Nakagami	02:02.752	+2.669	5	309.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Jordi Torres	02:02.963	+2.880	6	317.0	Medium / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 03.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alvaro Bautista	02:13.311	—	7	297.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:15.055	—	5	Wet-Soft
2	Aleix Espargaro	02:13.335	+0.024	7	303.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
3	Scott Redding	02:13.786	+0.475	6	290.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
4	Michele Pirro	02:13.823	+0.512	6	291.5	Wet-Soft / missing	—			—
5	Xavier Simeon	02:13.971	+0.660	7	291.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:15.128	+0.05%	5	Wet-Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	02:14.132	+0.821	6	279.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
7	Bradley Smith	02:14.332	+1.021	4	287.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
8	Thomas Luthi	02:14.843	+1.532	5	286.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
9	Franco Morbidelli	02:14.994	+1.683	7	285.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:16.090	+0.77%	4	Wet-Soft
10	Stefan Bradl	02:15.364	+2.053	7	284.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:16.619	+1.16%	5	Wet-Soft
11	Karel Abraham	02:15.679	+2.368	7	284.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:17.079	+1.50%	5	Wet-Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	02:16.558	+3.247	7	281.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:19.602	+3.37%	5	Wet-Soft
13	Hafizh Syahrin	02:16.825	+3.514	7	285.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:17.435	+1.76%	4	Wet-Soft
Retired	Jordi Torres		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Q2 · 03.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	02:12.161	—	7	308.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
2	Johann Zarco	02:12.709	+0.548	7	297.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
3	Valentino Rossi	02:13.009	+0.848	7	294.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
4	Andrea Iannone	02:13.097	+0.936	7	299.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
5	Andrea Dovizioso	02:13.183	+1.022	7	301.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:14.266	—	4	Wet-Medium
6	Jack Miller	02:13.274	+1.113	7	301.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
7	Danilo Petrucci	02:13.413	+1.252	7	306.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
8	Alex Rins	02:13.463	+1.302	7	308.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:14.306	+0.03%	4	Wet-Soft
9	Alvaro Bautista	02:14.185	+2.024	7	301.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	2:14.489	+0.17%	5	Wet-Medium
10	Daniel Pedrosa	02:14.443	+2.282	7	290.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
11	Maverick Viñales	02:14.856	+2.695	7	293.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:16.426	+1.61%	5	Wet-Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	02:15.340	+3.179	5	303.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	—			—

Warm Up · 04.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	02:11.476	—	9	299.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
2	Valentino Rossi	02:12.424	+0.948	8	297.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
3	Jack Miller	02:12.903	+1.427	10	301.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	—			—
4	Marc Marquez	02:13.007	+1.531	9	308.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:13.773	—	5	Wet-Medium
5	Michele Pirro	02:13.530	+2.054	8	294.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
6	Scott Redding	02:13.631	+2.155	8	301.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
7	Andrea Dovizioso	02:13.788	+2.312	8	294.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:14.195	+0.32%	5	Wet-Medium
8	Alex Rins	02:13.847	+2.371	7	308.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
9	Alvaro Bautista	02:13.934	+2.458	9	303.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:14.609	+0.63%	7	Wet-Medium
10	Daniel Pedrosa	02:14.305	+2.829	9	294.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:14.716	+0.71%	6	Wet-Medium
11	Karel Abraham	02:14.458	+2.982	9	286.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
12	Pol Espargaro	02:14.496	+3.020	9	294.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:16.254	+1.86%	6	Wet-Medium
13	Danilo Petrucci	02:14.587	+3.111	7	299.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
14	Johann Zarco	02:14.625	+3.149	8	292.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:14.825	+0.79%	5	Wet-Medium
15	Hafizh Syahrin	02:14.940	+3.464	8	295.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:15.551	+1.33%	4	Wet-Medium
16	Xavier Simeon	02:14.978	+3.502	7	285.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
17	Stefan Bradl	02:15.743	+4.267	8	285.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
18	Aleix Espargaro	02:15.932	+4.456	7	301.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
19	Bradley Smith	02:15.952	+4.476	8	273.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:17.593	+2.86%	5	Wet-Medium
20	Franco Morbidelli	02:16.048	+4.572	8	295.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
21	Thomas Luthi	02:16.141	+4.665	8	286.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:17.003	+2.42%	4	Wet-Medium
22	Takaaki Nakagami	02:16.218	+4.742	9	287.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:16.777	+2.25%	7	Wet-Medium
23	Andrea Iannone	02:20.917	+9.441	4	281.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—

Race · 04.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	40:32.372	25	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.066	—	18	Soft
2	Alex Rins	+1.898	20	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.378	+0.26%	18	Soft
3	Johann Zarco	+2.474	16	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.454	+0.32%	18	Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	+4.667	13	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.330	+0.22%	18	Soft
5	Daniel Pedrosa	+6.190	11	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.546	+0.40%	18	Soft
6	Andrea Dovizioso	+11.248	10	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.700	+0.52%	18	Soft
7	Alvaro Bautista	+15.611	9	20	Medium / Soft	2:02.013	+0.78%	18	Soft
8	Jack Miller	+19.009	8	20	Medium / Medium	2:02.376	+1.08%	18	Medium
9	Danilo Petrucci	+22.921	7	20	Medium / Soft	2:02.296	+1.02%	18	Soft
10	Hafizh Syahrin	+26.919	6	20	Medium / Soft	2:02.366	+1.07%	18	Soft
11	Aleix Espargaro	+29.503	5	20	Medium / Soft	2:02.578	+1.25%	18	Soft
12	Franco Morbidelli	+30.933	4	20	Hard / Soft	2:02.702	+1.35%	18	Soft
13	Stefan Bradl	+35.322	3	20	Medium / Soft	2:02.902	+1.52%	18	Soft
14	Takaaki Nakagami	+37.912	2	20	Medium / Soft	2:02.954	+1.56%	18	Soft
15	Bradley Smith	+39.675	1	20	Medium / Soft	2:03.115	+1.69%	18	Soft
16	Thomas Luthi	+41.820	0	20	Medium / Soft	2:03.223	+1.78%	18	Soft
17	Xavier Simeon	+43.978	0	20	Medium / Soft	2:03.234	+1.79%	18	Soft
18	Valentino Rossi	+58.288	0	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.069	+0.00%	17	Soft
19	Scott Redding	+60.191	0	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.306	+2.68%	18	Soft
Out on lap 1	Andrea Iannone		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Karel Abraham		0	3	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Michele Pirro		0	5	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Pol Espargaro		0	16	Medium / Soft	2:02.506	+1.19%	14	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Valentino Rossi	2:00.329	—	+0.508	Medium	5
Maverick Viñales	2:01.036*	+0.707	+0.292	Medium	4
Danilo Petrucci	2:01.595	+1.266	+0.574	Medium	6
Andrea Dovizioso	2:01.830	+1.501	+0.226	Medium	5
Stefan Bradl	2:01.875	+1.546	+0.530	Medium	8
Franco Morbidelli	2:02.030	+1.701	+0.512	Medium	5
Jack Miller	2:02.076	+1.747	+0.105	Medium	10
Pol Espargaro	2:02.779	+2.450	+0.406	Medium	7
Thomas Luthi	2:02.883*	+2.554	+0.237	Medium	4
Bradley Smith	2:02.910	+2.581	+0.085	Medium	7

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alvaro Bautista	57%	1 ✓
2	Franco Morbidelli	47%	9
3	Stefan Bradl	34%	10
4	Pol Espargaro	17%	6
5	Aleix Espargaro	16%	2 ✓
6	Hafizh Syahrin	8%	13
7	Takaaki Nakagami	10%	12
8	Michele Pirro	4%	4
9	Bradley Smith	3%	7
10	Karel Abraham	3%	11
11	Thomas Luthi	2%	8
12	Scott Redding	0%	3
13	Xavier Simeon	0%	5

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Maverick Viñales	38%	71%	92%	11
2	Marc Marquez	23%	51%	85%	1
3	Jack Miller	15%	48%	82%	6
4	Daniel Pedrosa	5%	36%	71%	10
5	Alex Rins	4%	28%	57%	8
6	Johann Zarco	7%	20%	55%	2
7	Danilo Petrucci	1%	11%	45%	7
8	Andrea Dovizioso	3%	14%	36%	5
9	Valentino Rossi	1%	6%	26%	3
10	Andrea Iannone	3%	8%	21%	4
11	Alvaro Bautista	1%	7%	20%	9
12	Aleix Espargaro	0%	1%	12%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Jordi Torres	24	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Marc Marquez	1	7	+6	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #93

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Johann Zarco	1	28%	61%	77%	88%	10%	3
Valentino Rossi	2	23%	55%	75%	89%	8%	18
Andrea Iannone	3	12%	38%	56%	72%	26%	—
Andrea Dovizioso	4	12%	38%	60%	83%	13%	6
Jack Miller	5	7%	24%	44%	69%	26%	8
Danilo Petrucci	6	6%	22%	40%	72%	21%	9
Marc Marquez	7	5%	20%	38%	76%	14%	1
Alex Rins	8	3%	12%	27%	63%	23%	2
Alvaro Bautista	9	2%	9%	21%	62%	20%	7
Daniel Pedrosa	10	1%	7%	18%	62%	13%	5
Maverick Viñales	11	1%	5%	14%	59%	9%	4
Aleix Espargaro	12	1%	3%	9%	42%	24%	11
Scott Redding	13	1%	3%	7%	40%	15%	19
Michele Pirro	14	0%	2%	5%	33%	18%	—
Xavier Simeon	15	0%	1%	3%	23%	23%	17
Pol Espargaro	16	0%	1%	2%	19%	22%	—
Bradley Smith	17	0%	0%	2%	15%	13%	15
Thomas Luthi	18	0%	0%	1%	11%	19%	16
Franco Morbidelli	19	0%	0%	1%	9%	6%	12
Stefan Bradl	20	0%	0%	1%	5%	22%	13
Karel Abraham	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	31%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	14%	14
Hafizh Syahrin	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	10
Jordi Torres	24	0%	0%	0%	2%	11%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.39%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.33%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Luca Marini +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Joan Mir +0.35%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.09%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Joan Mir +0.51%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.06%	Joan Mir +0.06%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.46%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.47%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.27%
S4	Franco Morbidelli +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.10%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.49%	Jack Miller +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.49%	Fabio Quartararo +0.55%
S4	Jack Miller +0.26%	Franco Morbidelli +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.28%	Jack Miller +0.38%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Valentino Rossi +0.32%	Alex Rins +0.33%

Fastest per sector: 2018

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

43/100

Position index

17%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	321	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	220	−101
3	Valentino Rossi	195	−126
4	Maverick Viñales	193	−128
5	Johann Zarco	149	−172
6	Alex Rins	149	−172

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2017 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

5/20

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

0.743 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Danilo Petrucci, from P13 to P6.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Hector Barbera (8 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Enea BastianiniDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 21% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/23	17%
2024	2/20	10%
2023	5/23	22%
2022	5/24	21%
2019	3/20	15%
2018	4/23	17%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet