Round 16 of 19 Aftermath

Japanese Grand Prix 2018

4.801 m · 24 laps · since 1999

19.10 – 21.10.2018

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	42:36.438	25
2	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+1.573	20
3	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+1.720	16
4	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+6.413	13
5	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+6.919	11
6	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+8.024	10
7	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+13.330	9
8	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+15.582	8
9	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+20.584	7
10	Hafizh Syahrin	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+24.985	6
11	Franco Morbidelli	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+25.931	5
12	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+26.875	4
13	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+27.069	3
14	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	Yamaha	Yamalube Yamaha Factory Racing	+32.550	2
15	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+37.718	1
16	Xavier Simeon	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+39.583	0
17	Jordi Torres	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+39.839	0
18	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+42.698	0
19	Scott Redding	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+49.943	0
20	Thomas Luthi	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+52.707	0
21	Sylvain Guintoli	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+61.848	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Andrea Dovizioso · 31%	Marc Marquez · 6% · from P6	0.71 / 0.71	3.2 / 3.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:46.067	—	+0.210	Medium	21
Andrea Dovizioso	1:46.180	+0.113	+0.226	Medium	21
Andrea Iannone	1:46.220	+0.153	+0.224	Medium	12
Alex Rins	1:46.244	+0.177	+0.217	Medium	22
Cal Crutchlow	1:46.272	+0.205	+0.729	Medium	22
Alvaro Bautista	1:46.419	+0.352	+0.086	Soft	22
Valentino Rossi	1:46.488	+0.421	+0.508	Medium	22
Johann Zarco	1:46.517	+0.450	+0.344	Medium	22
Maverick Viñales	1:46.548	+0.481	+0.292	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:46.637	+0.570	+0.105	Soft	7
Daniel Pedrosa	1:46.650	+0.583	+0.089	Medium	22
Danilo Petrucci	1:46.845	+0.778	+0.574	Medium	22
Hafizh Syahrin	1:47.120	+1.053	+0.491	Medium	22
Franco Morbidelli	1:47.142	+1.075	+0.512	Medium	22
Bradley Smith	1:47.226	+1.159	+0.085	Medium	22
Pol Espargaro	1:47.239	+1.172	+0.406	Soft	22
Takaaki Nakagami	1:47.307	+1.240	+0.359	Soft	22
Katsuyuki Nakasuga	1:47.527	+1.460	—	Medium	22
Jordi Torres	1:47.595	+1.528	+0.140	Medium	22
Karel Abraham	1:47.614	+1.547	—	Soft	9
Xavier Simeon	1:47.686	+1.619	—	Medium	22
Aleix Espargaro	1:47.769	+1.702	+0.209	Soft	4
Thomas Luthi	1:48.086	+2.019	+0.237	Medium	22
Scott Redding	1:48.130	+2.063	+0.263	Soft	22
Sylvain Guintoli	1:48.468	+2.401	—	Medium	22

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/24

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.573 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jordi Torres, from P25 to P17.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Marc Marquez (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:02:09		Jump start	jump start
Race	14:13:25	Aleix Espargaro	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:19:44	Karel Abraham	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:19:54	Jack Miller	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:25:09	Karel Abraham	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:27:02	Andrea Iannone	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:40:55	Andrea Dovizioso	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Andrea Dovizioso (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Scott Redding	21	15	+6
Marc Marquez	6	2	+4
Valentino Rossi	9	5	+4
Takaaki Nakagami	12	22	−10
Johann Zarco	2	7	−5
Andrea Iannone	5	9	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Marc Marquez	6→1	+5.0
Alex Rins	8→3	+4.3
Valentino Rossi	9→4	+4.0
Sylvain Guintoli	24→21	−3.4
Takaaki Nakagami	12→15	−5.1
Andrea Dovizioso	1→18	−15.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	72%	+0.64%	−0.008	1	3	10.5
Soft	28%	+1.17%	+0.004	0	0	13.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

19.9 °C

Air

max 20.1 °C

36%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

7 km/h

Wind

gusts 27 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 19.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:45.358	—	18	308.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:45.463	+0.105	18	308.6	Medium / Soft	1:48.299	+1.33%	6	Medium
3	Johann Zarco	01:45.483	+0.125	19	304.2	Soft / Soft	1:46.881	—	8	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:45.498	+0.140	20	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:48.128	+1.17%	11	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:45.640	+0.282	19	308.3	Medium / Soft	1:47.912	+0.97%	12	Medium
6	Andrea Iannone	01:46.030	+0.672	18	303.4	Medium / Soft	1:47.093	+0.20%	4	Medium
7	Alvaro Bautista	01:46.210	+0.852	17	308.3	Soft / Medium	1:47.050	+0.16%	12	Medium
8	Jack Miller	01:46.265	+0.907	18	304.6	Soft / Soft	1:48.020	+1.07%	5	Medium
9	Valentino Rossi	01:46.329	+0.971	19	304.7	Soft / Medium	1:47.516	+0.59%	11	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.526	+1.168	17	303.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Daniel Pedrosa	01:46.568	+1.210	19	304.9	Medium / Soft	1:47.633	+0.70%	5	Medium
12	Scott Redding	01:46.854	+1.496	16	303.5	Soft / Soft	1:49.232	+2.20%	4	Medium
13	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.856	+1.498	19	302.9	Soft / Medium	1:48.481	+1.50%	6	Medium
14	Pol Espargaro	01:46.859	+1.501	17	305.6	Soft / Medium	1:48.371	+1.39%	6	Medium
15	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:46.872	+1.514	18	306.9	Medium / Soft	1:48.057	+1.10%	5	Medium
16	Xavier Simeon	01:46.998	+1.640	16	300.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:47.054	+1.696	17	308.6	Medium / Medium	1:48.018	+1.06%	6	Medium
18	Bradley Smith	01:47.137	+1.779	18	300.7	Soft / Medium	1:47.834	+0.89%	6	Medium
19	Alex Rins	01:47.187	+1.829	19	305.0	Soft / Medium	1:47.778	+0.84%	10	Medium
20	Franco Morbidelli	01:47.428	+2.070	15	299.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Sylvain Guintoli	01:47.537	+2.179	17	306.8	Soft / Soft	1:51.224	+4.06%	4	Soft
22	Jordi Torres	01:47.665	+2.307	20	303.6	Soft / Soft	1:49.294	+2.26%	13	Medium
23	Karel Abraham	01:47.716	+2.358	18	304.3	Medium / Soft	1:50.312	+3.21%	9	Medium
24	Hafizh Syahrin	01:47.726	+2.368	14	303.1	Soft / Medium	1:48.075	+1.12%	9	Medium
25	Thomas Luthi	01:47.833	+2.475	21	302.8	Medium / Medium	1:48.864	+1.86%	16	Medium
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP2 · 19.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:48.136	—	12	303.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Scott Redding	01:48.635	+0.499	6	298.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Danilo Petrucci	01:48.939	+0.803	3	304.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Jack Miller	01:49.022	+0.886	7	301.5	Soft / Soft	1:50.921	—	5	Soft
5	Johann Zarco	01:49.133	+0.997	16	300.7	Soft / Soft	1:54.954	+3.64%	7	Wet-Medium
6	Hafizh Syahrin	01:49.387	+1.251	9	298.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
7	Bradley Smith	01:49.573	+1.437	4	296.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Xavier Simeon	01:50.154	+2.018	13	294.6	Soft / Soft	1:52.868	+1.76%	5	Soft
9	Thomas Luthi	01:50.482	+2.346	10	298.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Sylvain Guintoli	01:50.578	+2.442	7	302.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Karel Abraham	01:50.694	+2.558	12	298.6	Soft / Soft	1:56.803	+5.30%	7	Wet-Medium
12	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:51.652	+3.516	3	299.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Alex Rins	01:53.586	+5.450	9	300.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Valentino Rossi	01:54.078	+5.942	14	294.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:56.810	+5.31%	5	Wet-Medium
15	Maverick Viñales	01:54.133	+5.997	18	295.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:56.759	+5.26%	11	Wet-Medium
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:54.758	+6.622	17	294.7	Soft / Medium	1:58.970	+7.26%	7	Wet-Medium
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
—	Alvaro Bautista	01:57.297	+9.161	10	293.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:58.394	+6.74%	7	Wet-Soft
Retired	Andrea Dovizioso		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Andrea Iannone		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Jordi Torres		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Marc Marquez		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Pol Espargaro		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
—	Takaaki Nakagami	01:58.255	+10.119	5	285.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—

FP3 · 20.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:45.107	—	16	310.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:45.134	+0.027	18	308.4	Medium / Soft	1:47.248	+0.74%	5	Medium
3	Johann Zarco	01:45.137	+0.030	19	304.5	Soft / Soft	1:46.496	+0.04%	6	Soft
4	Marc Marquez	01:45.289	+0.182	19	309.4	Medium / Soft	1:46.459	—	6	Soft
5	Valentino Rossi	01:45.422	+0.315	19	303.9	Soft / Soft	1:46.925	+0.44%	5	Soft
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:45.428	+0.321	19	306.9	Medium / Soft	1:46.722	+0.25%	5	Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	01:45.470	+0.363	18	308.6	Soft / Soft	1:46.951	+0.46%	5	Soft
8	Alex Rins	01:45.508	+0.401	20	304.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Andrea Iannone	01:45.599	+0.492	19	305.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Jack Miller	01:45.688	+0.581	19	304.8	Soft / Soft	1:46.531	+0.07%	7	Medium
11	Alvaro Bautista	01:45.742	+0.635	20	308.1	Soft / Soft	1:46.596	+0.13%	11	Soft
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.125	+1.018	19	302.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:46.216	+1.109	16	306.2	Soft / Soft	1:46.711	+0.24%	5	Soft
14	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:46.341	+1.234	19	305.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Pol Espargaro	01:46.488	+1.381	18	306.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.491	+1.384	19	302.3	Medium / Soft	1:47.738	+1.20%	4	Soft
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.518	+1.411	16	304.8	Soft / Soft	1:48.410	+1.83%	4	Soft
18	Scott Redding	01:46.561	+1.454	16	301.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Hafizh Syahrin	01:46.579	+1.472	17	303.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Xavier Simeon	01:46.608	+1.501	14	300.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Thomas Luthi	01:47.048	+1.941	18	299.7	Medium / Soft	1:48.076	+1.52%	4	Soft
22	Bradley Smith	01:47.179	+2.072	17	300.5	Medium / Soft	1:47.510	+0.99%	5	Soft
23	Karel Abraham	01:47.387	+2.280	18	303.6	Medium / Soft	1:48.756	+2.16%	9	Soft
24	Jordi Torres	01:47.542	+2.435	16	305.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
25	Sylvain Guintoli	01:47.893	+2.786	17	305.3	Soft / Soft	1:48.606	+2.02%	11	Medium

FP4 · 20.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:45.531	—	12	305.6	Medium / Medium	1:45.679	—	6	Medium
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:45.841	+0.310	14	308.4	Medium / Medium	1:47.024	+1.27%	5	Soft
3	Andrea Iannone	01:45.951	+0.420	14	303.3	Medium / Medium	1:48.018	+2.21%	9	Medium
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:46.025	+0.494	14	311.4	Medium / Soft	1:46.567	+0.84%	10	Soft
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:46.128	+0.597	12	307.5	Soft / Soft	1:47.150	+1.39%	6	Medium
6	Maverick Viñales	01:46.136	+0.605	12	307.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Alex Rins	01:46.189	+0.658	14	305.5	Medium / Medium	1:46.750	+1.01%	10	Medium
8	Jack Miller	01:46.204	+0.673	15	304.4	Medium / Soft	1:46.659	+0.93%	11	Soft
9	Valentino Rossi	01:46.403	+0.872	13	303.7	Medium / Medium	1:46.906	+1.16%	6	Medium
10	Hafizh Syahrin	01:46.439	+0.908	11	301.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
11	Johann Zarco	01:46.519	+0.988	15	303.1	Medium / Soft	1:46.791	+1.05%	11	Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	01:46.631	+1.100	12	306.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Daniel Pedrosa	01:46.633	+1.102	12	307.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Bradley Smith	01:46.657	+1.126	12	300.3	Medium / Medium	1:46.950	+1.20%	5	Medium
15	Alvaro Bautista	01:46.680	+1.149	14	308.2	Soft / Medium	1:47.214	+1.45%	8	Soft
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.699	+1.168	15	300.9	Medium / Soft	1:47.208	+1.45%	10	Soft
17	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:46.704	+1.173	13	305.8	Medium / Medium	1:47.224	+1.46%	6	Medium
18	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.938	+1.407	12	301.5	Hard / Soft	1:47.869	+2.07%	6	Soft
19	Aleix Espargaro	01:47.014	+1.483	13	303.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Scott Redding	01:47.101	+1.570	11	303.8	Soft / Soft	1:47.304	+1.54%	5	Soft
21	Karel Abraham	01:47.111	+1.580	12	303.8	Medium / Medium	1:48.109	+2.30%	10	Medium
22	Xavier Simeon	01:47.511	+1.980	15	299.5	Soft / Soft	1:48.225	+2.41%	7	Soft
23	Sylvain Guintoli	01:47.609	+2.078	13	304.2	Medium / Soft	1:47.996	+2.19%	7	Soft
24	Thomas Luthi	01:47.652	+2.121	12	301.7	Medium / Medium	1:48.179	+2.37%	4	Medium
25	Jordi Torres	01:47.762	+2.231	14	304.5	Soft / Medium	1:48.149	+2.34%	6	Medium

Q1 · 20.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Alvaro Bautista	01:45.429	—	8	306.2	Soft / Soft
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:45.656	+0.227	7	302.1	Medium / Soft
3	Bradley Smith	01:45.722	+0.293	7	300.5	Medium / Soft
4	Pol Espargaro	01:45.742	+0.313	7	305.5	Medium / Soft
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:45.759	+0.330	7	306.2	Soft / Soft
6	Hafizh Syahrin	01:45.765	+0.336	7	305.2	Medium / Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.969	+0.540	6	301.6	Hard / Soft
8	Karel Abraham	01:46.072	+0.643	8	303.7	Medium / Soft
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.183	+0.754	7	303.2	Medium / Soft
10	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:46.441	+1.012	8	304.5	Medium / Soft
11	Scott Redding	01:46.571	+1.142	5	302.5	Soft / Soft
12	Xavier Simeon	01:46.573	+1.144	8	299.8	Soft / Soft
13	Thomas Luthi	01:46.817	+1.388	8	302.2	Medium / Soft
14	Sylvain Guintoli	01:47.106	+1.677	7	304.5	Soft / Soft
15	Jordi Torres	01:47.147	+1.718	8	305.6	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 20.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:44.590	—	8	309.8	Soft / Soft
2	Johann Zarco	01:44.658	+0.068	7	304.8	Soft / Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:44.727	+0.137	8	306.3	Soft / Soft
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:44.820	+0.230	7	308.2	Medium / Soft
5	Andrea Iannone	01:44.832	+0.242	8	305.8	Medium / Soft
6	Marc Marquez	01:44.889	+0.299	8	306.2	Medium / Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	01:45.140	+0.550	7	308.2	Soft / Soft
8	Alex Rins	01:45.225	+0.635	8	305.2	Soft / Soft
9	Valentino Rossi	01:45.265	+0.675	7	306.2	Soft / Soft
10	Alvaro Bautista	01:45.396	+0.806	8	306.9	Soft / Soft
11	Daniel Pedrosa	01:45.519	+0.929	8	307.8	Medium / Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.168	+1.578	6	299.5	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 21.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:45.409	—	11	310.7	— / —	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:45.680	+0.271	11	305.0	— / —	—			—
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:45.797	+0.388	11	310.1	Medium / Medium	1:46.252	+0.08%	7	Medium
4	Andrea Iannone	01:45.944	+0.535	10	306.9	Soft / Medium	1:46.166	—	4	Medium
5	Alex Rins	01:45.963	+0.554	11	305.1	Medium / Medium	1:46.439	+0.26%	5	Medium
6	Valentino Rossi	01:46.128	+0.719	11	305.1	— / —	—			—
7	Maverick Viñales	01:46.133	+0.724	11	308.0	— / —	—			—
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:46.312	+0.903	11	306.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Daniel Pedrosa	01:46.360	+0.951	12	306.4	Medium / Soft	1:46.784	+0.58%	10	Soft
10	Johann Zarco	01:46.458	+1.049	11	302.6	Soft / Medium	1:46.837	+0.63%	9	Medium
11	Pol Espargaro	01:46.592	+1.183	9	306.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.625	+1.216	11	303.6	— / —	—			—
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:46.666	+1.257	10	309.7	— / —	—			—
14	Hafizh Syahrin	01:46.682	+1.273	11	301.4	— / —	—			—
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.688	+1.279	11	301.7	Medium / Soft	1:48.404	+2.11%	8	Soft
16	Bradley Smith	01:46.734	+1.325	11	301.5	Medium / Soft	1:46.871	+0.66%	8	Soft
17	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:46.823	+1.414	10	302.6	Medium / Medium	1:47.388	+1.15%	6	Medium
18	Xavier Simeon	01:46.863	+1.454	11	301.8	— / —	—			—
19	Jack Miller	01:46.891	+1.482	11	305.9	— / —	—			—
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:47.114	+1.705	5	305.8	— / —	—			—
21	Karel Abraham	01:47.355	+1.946	7	304.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Thomas Luthi	01:47.475	+2.066	11	302.6	Medium / Soft	1:48.040	+1.77%	9	Soft
23	Sylvain Guintoli	01:47.742	+2.333	9	305.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
24	Jordi Torres	01:47.784	+2.375	11	305.3	Soft / Soft	1:48.412	+2.12%	8	Soft
25	Scott Redding	01:48.111	+2.702	4	297.5	— / —	—			—

Race · 21.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	42:36.438	25	24	Medium / Medium	1:46.067	—	21	Medium
2	Cal Crutchlow	+1.573	20	24	Medium / Medium	1:46.272	+0.19%	22	Medium
3	Alex Rins	+1.720	16	24	Medium / Medium	1:46.244	+0.17%	22	Medium
4	Valentino Rossi	+6.413	13	24	Medium / Medium	1:46.488	+0.40%	22	Medium
5	Alvaro Bautista	+6.919	11	24	Soft / Soft	1:46.419	+0.33%	22	Soft
6	Johann Zarco	+8.024	10	24	Soft / Medium	1:46.517	+0.42%	22	Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	+13.330	9	24	Soft / Medium	1:46.548	+0.45%	22	Medium
8	Daniel Pedrosa	+15.582	8	24	Medium / Medium	1:46.650	+0.55%	22	Medium
9	Danilo Petrucci	+20.584	7	24	Soft / Medium	1:46.845	+0.73%	22	Medium
10	Hafizh Syahrin	+24.985	6	24	Medium / Medium	1:47.120	+0.99%	22	Medium
11	Franco Morbidelli	+25.931	5	24	Medium / Medium	1:47.142	+1.01%	22	Medium
12	Bradley Smith	+26.875	4	24	Medium / Medium	1:47.226	+1.09%	22	Medium
13	Pol Espargaro	+27.069	3	24	Medium / Soft	1:47.239	+1.11%	22	Soft
14	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	+32.550	2	24	Medium / Medium	1:47.527	+1.38%	22	Medium
15	Takaaki Nakagami	+37.718	1	24	Medium / Soft	1:47.307	+1.17%	22	Soft
16	Xavier Simeon	+39.583	0	24	Soft / Medium	1:47.686	+1.53%	22	Medium
17	Jordi Torres	+39.839	0	24	Soft / Medium	1:47.595	+1.44%	22	Medium
18	Andrea Dovizioso	+42.698	0	24	Soft / Medium	1:46.180	+0.11%	21	Medium
19	Scott Redding	+49.943	0	24	Soft / Soft	1:48.130	+1.95%	22	Soft
20	Thomas Luthi	+52.707	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:48.086	+1.90%	22	Medium
21	Sylvain Guintoli	+61.848	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:48.468	+2.26%	22	Medium
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	6	Medium / Soft	1:47.769	+1.61%	4	Soft
Retired	Andrea Iannone		0	14	Medium / Medium	1:46.220	+0.14%	12	Medium
Retired	Jack Miller		0	10	Soft / Soft	1:46.637	+0.54%	7	Soft
Retired	Karel Abraham		0	12	Medium / Soft	1:47.614	+1.46%	9	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:45.616	—	+0.210	Medium	5
Cal Crutchlow	1:46.252	+0.636	+0.729	Medium	11
Maverick Viñales	1:46.335	+0.719	+0.292	Medium	5
Hafizh Syahrin	1:46.499*	+0.883	+0.491	Medium	4
Valentino Rossi	1:46.862	+1.246	+0.508	Medium	5
Bradley Smith	1:46.870*	+1.254	+0.085	Medium	4
Danilo Petrucci	1:46.967	+1.351	+0.574	Medium	5
Katsuyuki Nakasuga	1:47.268*	+1.652	—	Medium	4
Aleix Espargaro	1:47.343*	+1.727	+0.209	Medium	3
Franco Morbidelli	1:48.053*	+2.437	+0.512	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alvaro Bautista	56%	1 ✓
2	Franco Morbidelli	48%	7
3	Danilo Petrucci	35%	5
4	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	17%	10
5	Hafizh Syahrin	17%	6
6	Pol Espargaro	8%	4
7	Takaaki Nakagami	9%	2 ✓
8	Aleix Espargaro	4%	9
9	Scott Redding	3%	11
10	Xavier Simeon	3%	12
11	Bradley Smith	2%	3
12	Thomas Luthi	0%	13
13	Karel Abraham	0%	8
14	Sylvain Guintoli	0%	14
15	Jordi Torres	0%	15

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Andrea Dovizioso	38%	72%	92%	1
2	Cal Crutchlow	23%	52%	85%	4
3	Johann Zarco	16%	47%	82%	2
4	Marc Marquez	5%	37%	71%	6
5	Valentino Rossi	4%	27%	57%	9
6	Daniel Pedrosa	6%	19%	55%	11
7	Maverick Viñales	1%	11%	45%	7
8	Alex Rins	3%	15%	36%	8
9	Andrea Iannone	1%	6%	25%	5
10	Jack Miller	3%	7%	20%	3
11	Alvaro Bautista	1%	7%	20%	10
12	Takaaki Nakagami	0%	1%	12%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Andrea Dovizioso	1	31%	60%	75%	85%	13%	18
Johann Zarco	2	23%	59%	76%	89%	8%	6
Jack Miller	3	13%	40%	56%	72%	25%	—
Cal Crutchlow	4	9%	31%	49%	68%	28%	2
Andrea Iannone	5	7%	26%	46%	69%	25%	—
Marc Marquez	6	6%	23%	46%	80%	13%	1
Maverick Viñales	7	4%	19%	40%	78%	10%	7
Alex Rins	8	2%	12%	28%	62%	25%	3
Valentino Rossi	9	2%	9%	25%	73%	8%	4
Alvaro Bautista	10	1%	6%	15%	58%	20%	5
Daniel Pedrosa	11	1%	5%	14%	57%	12%	8
Takaaki Nakagami	12	0%	3%	9%	47%	16%	15
Bradley Smith	13	0%	2%	7%	40%	13%	12
Pol Espargaro	14	0%	1%	5%	31%	22%	13
Danilo Petrucci	15	0%	1%	3%	25%	22%	9
Hafizh Syahrin	16	0%	1%	2%	20%	16%	10
Franco Morbidelli	17	0%	1%	2%	16%	6%	11
Karel Abraham	18	0%	0%	1%	9%	31%	—
Aleix Espargaro	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	24%	—
Katsuyuki Nakasuga	20	0%	0%	1%	6%	8%	14
Scott Redding	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	15%	19
Xavier Simeon	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	26%	16
Thomas Luthi	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	21%	20
Sylvain Guintoli	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	18%	21
Jordi Torres	25	0%	0%	0%	1%	14%	17

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,812 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marc Marquez +0.28%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Luca Marini +0.32%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.21%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Brad Binder +0.65%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.43%
S4	Pedro Acosta	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Brad Binder +0.23%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.14%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Augusto Fernandez +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.10%	Jorge Martin +0.15%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Miguel Oliveira +0.38%
S2	Jack Miller	Aleix Espargaro +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.28%	Marc Marquez +0.35%
S4	Jack Miller	Francesco Bagnaia +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.33%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.24%
S4	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.61%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Dovizioso +0.21%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Cal Crutchlow +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.50%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.37%	Cal Crutchlow +0.40%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Cal Crutchlow +0.25%

Fastest per sector: 2018

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

24/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	296	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	194	−102
3	Valentino Rossi	185	−111
4	Maverick Viñales	155	−141
5	Cal Crutchlow	148	−148
6	Danilo Petrucci	133	−163

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2017 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

4/24

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

0.249 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P9 to P1.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Johann Zarco (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Jack MillerDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 18% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	6/23	26%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	5/25	20%
2019	2/22	9%
2018	4/25	16%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet