Round 15 of 19 Aftermath

Thailand Grand Prix 2018

4.554 m · 26 laps · since 2018

05.10 – 07.10.2018

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	39:55.722	25
2	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+0.115	20
3	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+0.270	16
4	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+1.564	13
5	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+2.747	11
6	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+3.023	10
7	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+6.520	9
8	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+6.691	8
9	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+9.944	7
10	Jack Miller	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+11.077	6
11	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+15.488	5
12	Hafizh Syahrin	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+17.691	4
13	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+21.413	3
14	Franco Morbidelli	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+22.802	2
15	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+23.628	1
16	Scott Redding	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+23.804	0
17	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+32.507	0
18	Xavier Simeon	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+37.216	0
19	Jordi Torres	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+39.204	0
20	Thomas Luthi	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+39.421	0
21	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+53.388	0
22	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+0.000	0
DNF	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 31% ✓	Marc Marquez · 31% · from P1	0.87 / 0.87	2.8 / 2.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Daniel Pedrosa	1:31.855	—	+0.089	Hard	15
Maverick Viñales	1:31.924	+0.069	+0.292	Hard	24
Marc Marquez	1:31.950	+0.095	+0.210	Hard	24
Johann Zarco	1:31.965	+0.110	+0.344	Hard	24
Alex Rins	1:31.980	+0.125	+0.217	Hard	24
Valentino Rossi	1:31.994	+0.139	+0.508	Hard	24
Andrea Dovizioso	1:32.024	+0.169	+0.226	Hard	24
Alvaro Bautista	1:32.082	+0.227	+0.086	Hard	24
Danilo Petrucci	1:32.110	+0.255	+0.574	Hard	24
Jack Miller	1:32.184	+0.329	+0.105	Hard	24
Cal Crutchlow	1:32.186	+0.331	+0.729	Hard	24
Andrea Iannone	1:32.197	+0.342	+0.224	Hard	24
Hafizh Syahrin	1:32.394	+0.539	+0.491	Hard	24
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.712	+0.857	+0.209	Soft	24
Scott Redding	1:32.778	+0.923	+0.263	Hard	24
Franco Morbidelli	1:32.833	+0.978	+0.512	Hard	24
Bradley Smith	1:32.845	+0.990	+0.085	Hard	24
Thomas Luthi	1:33.042	+1.187	+0.237	Hard	24
Pol Espargaro	1:33.129	+1.274	+0.406	Hard	24
Jordi Torres	1:33.197	+1.342	+0.140	Hard	24
Karel Abraham	1:33.197	+1.342	—	Hard	24
Xavier Simeon	1:33.225	+1.370	—	Hard	24
Takaaki Nakagami	1:33.350	+1.495	+0.359	Hard	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

5/26

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.115 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Scott Redding, from P23 to P16.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Marc Marquez (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:37		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:05:31	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:29:08	Daniel Pedrosa	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Scott Redding	23	16	+7
Jack Miller	10	7	+3
Bradley Smith	15	12	+3
Daniel Pedrosa	7	11	−4
Takaaki Nakagami	14	18	−4
Alvaro Bautista	12	15	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Rins	11→6	+3.3
Johann Zarco	8→5	+2.3
Andrea Dovizioso	3→2	+2.1
Andrea Iannone	6→11	−5.0
Pol Espargaro	19→21	−6.6
Takaaki Nakagami	14→22	−10.8

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	96%	+0.37%	−0.002	1	3	11.4
Soft	4%	+0.93%	+0.013	0	0	13.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

31.3 °C

Air

max 31.4 °C

53%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

10 km/h

Wind

gusts 23 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 05.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:31.220	—	21	324.7	Medium / Soft	1:32.847	+0.76%	13	Medium
2	Valentino Rossi	01:31.490	+0.270	22	322.0	Soft / Medium	1:33.083	+1.01%	11	Medium
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.636	+0.416	19	326.8	Medium / Medium	1:33.470	+1.43%	11	Medium
4	Jack Miller	01:31.637	+0.417	22	320.4	Medium / Medium	1:32.858	+0.77%	8	Medium
5	Marc Marquez	01:31.668	+0.448	21	326.0	Medium / Medium	1:32.151	—	11	Medium
6	Johann Zarco	01:31.786	+0.566	22	324.7	Soft / Soft	1:33.077	+1.01%	15	Medium
7	Andrea Iannone	01:31.860	+0.640	20	320.5	Medium / Medium	1:33.501	+1.47%	5	Medium
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.040	+0.820	22	320.3	Medium / Medium	1:33.019	+0.94%	10	Medium
9	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.108	+0.888	20	327.2	Medium / Medium	1:33.258	+1.20%	7	Medium
10	Scott Redding	01:32.191	+0.971	18	322.4	Medium / Medium	1:33.263	+1.21%	5	Medium
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.280	+1.060	20	326.6	Medium / Medium	1:32.973	+0.89%	9	Medium
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.313	+1.093	20	319.9	Medium / Medium	1:33.404	+1.36%	11	Medium
13	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.414	+1.194	21	322.9	Medium / Medium	1:33.074	+1.00%	12	Medium
14	Alex Rins	01:32.422	+1.202	17	321.0	Medium / Medium	1:33.438	+1.40%	5	Medium
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.479	+1.259	21	318.8	Medium / Medium	1:33.302	+1.25%	10	Medium
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:32.520	+1.300	21	322.9	Soft / Medium	1:33.026	+0.95%	13	Medium
17	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.521	+1.301	19	325.1	Medium / Medium	1:35.122	+3.22%	8	Medium
18	Pol Espargaro	01:32.648	+1.428	20	320.8	Soft / Medium	1:34.364	+2.40%	11	Medium
19	Hafizh Syahrin	01:32.770	+1.550	20	319.4	Medium / Medium	1:33.733	+1.72%	9	Medium
20	Karel Abraham	01:32.947	+1.727	17	323.3	Medium / Soft	1:34.619	+2.68%	5	Medium
21	Bradley Smith	01:33.092	+1.872	21	319.4	Medium / Medium	1:34.138	+2.16%	10	Medium
22	Thomas Luthi	01:33.133	+1.913	20	317.3	Medium / Medium	1:34.580	+2.64%	7	Medium
23	Xavier Simeon	01:33.272	+2.052	17	319.8	Medium / Medium	1:37.039	+5.30%	5	Medium
24	Jordi Torres	01:33.406	+2.186	21	321.7	Medium / Soft	1:34.903	+2.99%	13	Medium

FP2 · 05.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.090	—	21	326.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.702	+1.45%	12	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:31.121	+0.031	23	323.2	Hard / Hard	1:31.380	—	5	Hard
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.164	+0.074	22	326.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.026	+1.80%	6	Hard
4	Marc Marquez	01:31.188	+0.098	23	325.1	Hard / Soft	1:31.698	+0.35%	10	Soft
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.238	+0.148	18	327.6	Soft / Soft	1:31.862	+0.53%	5	Medium
6	Andrea Iannone	01:31.256	+0.166	19	320.4	Medium / Medium	1:32.522	+1.25%	12	Soft
7	Alvaro Bautista	01:31.378	+0.288	24	324.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.188	+0.88%	18	Medium
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:31.385	+0.295	24	325.2	Medium / Soft	1:32.050	+0.73%	17	Medium
9	Valentino Rossi	01:31.398	+0.308	23	321.4	Medium / Soft	1:32.269	+0.97%	11	Medium
10	Johann Zarco	01:31.421	+0.331	24	322.1	Medium / Soft	1:32.932	+1.70%	11	Soft
11	Jack Miller	01:31.486	+0.396	16	322.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.568	+1.30%	6	Medium
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.647	+0.557	24	320.2	Hard / Soft	1:32.856	+1.62%	17	Hard
13	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.714	+0.624	26	319.0	Hard / Soft	1:33.104	+1.89%	17	Medium
14	Bradley Smith	01:31.841	+0.751	20	319.6	Hard / Soft	1:32.874	+1.64%	11	Soft
15	Alex Rins	01:31.929	+0.839	25	320.1	Hard / Medium	1:32.485	+1.21%	11	Medium
16	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.027	+0.937	11	324.8	Soft / Soft	1:32.523	+1.25%	6	Soft
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.067	+0.977	19	321.6	Medium / Soft	1:32.292	+1.00%	4	Soft
18	Hafizh Syahrin	01:32.177	+1.087	22	319.0	Hard / Soft	1:33.403	+2.21%	11	Medium
19	Karel Abraham	01:32.403	+1.313	19	323.1	Hard / Soft	1:33.242	+2.04%	5	Soft
20	Pol Espargaro	01:32.475	+1.385	21	320.5	Hard / Soft	1:33.335	+2.14%	5	Soft
21	Scott Redding	01:32.650	+1.560	10	320.2	Hard / Soft	1:33.574	+2.40%	6	Soft
22	Thomas Luthi	01:32.661	+1.571	22	315.7	Hard / Soft	1:33.711	+2.55%	16	Hard
23	Xavier Simeon	01:32.989	+1.899	18	322.9	Medium / Soft	1:33.482	+2.30%	6	Soft
24	Jordi Torres	01:33.503	+2.413	19	323.0	Medium / Medium	1:33.958	+2.82%	6	Medium

FP3 · 06.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.399	—	21	329.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.240	+0.72%	12	Hard
2	Jack Miller	01:30.566	+0.167	20	324.9	Medium / Soft	1:31.976	+0.43%	11	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:30.647	+0.248	23	326.7	Medium / Soft	1:32.092	+0.56%	12	Hard
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.719	+0.320	19	328.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.398	+0.89%	5	Hard
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.727	+0.328	19	327.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.818	+0.419	22	326.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.768	+1.30%	6	Hard
7	Valentino Rossi	01:30.859	+0.460	23	324.2	Medium / Soft	1:31.970	+0.43%	8	Hard
8	Andrea Iannone	01:30.881	+0.482	22	323.7	Medium / Soft	1:32.262	+0.74%	6	Hard
9	Johann Zarco	01:30.979	+0.580	19	324.1	Medium / Soft	1:31.992	+0.45%	5	Medium
10	Alvaro Bautista	01:31.015	+0.616	23	326.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.685	+1.21%	12	Soft
11	Marc Marquez	01:31.079	+0.680	21	326.4	Hard / Hard	1:31.581	—	13	Hard
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.117	+0.718	21	320.9	Hard / Soft	1:32.435	+0.93%	13	Soft
13	Bradley Smith	01:31.118	+0.719	19	319.7	Hard / Soft	1:33.299	+1.88%	6	Medium
14	Pol Espargaro	01:31.169	+0.770	19	324.1	Medium / Soft	1:32.960	+1.51%	8	Medium
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.187	+0.788	20	322.7	Hard / Soft	1:33.136	+1.70%	5	Soft
16	Alex Rins	01:31.209	+0.810	23	322.6	Soft / Soft	1:31.649	+0.07%	5	Hard
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.385	+0.986	23	320.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.544	+1.05%	13	Hard
18	Hafizh Syahrin	01:31.728	+1.329	18	321.9	Medium / Soft	1:32.688	+1.21%	5	Soft
19	Thomas Luthi	01:31.816	+1.417	19	321.7	Hard / Soft	1:32.529	+1.04%	5	Soft
20	Xavier Simeon	01:31.867	+1.468	18	324.7	Medium / Soft	1:33.165	+1.73%	5	Soft
21	Scott Redding	01:32.028	+1.629	17	321.4	Hard / Soft	1:32.809	+1.34%	5	Medium
22	Karel Abraham	01:32.148	+1.749	19	323.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.348	+1.93%	11	Soft
23	Jordi Torres	01:32.272	+1.873	21	325.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP4 · 06.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.693	—	16	330.4	— / —	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:30.976	+0.283	16	326.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Valentino Rossi	01:31.104	+0.411	15	326.2	Hard / Hard	1:31.823	—	7	Hard
4	Maverick Viñales	01:31.165	+0.472	16	327.1	Hard / Hard	—			—
5	Andrea Iannone	01:31.242	+0.549	15	323.6	— / —	—			—
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.341	+0.648	14	327.4	— / —	—			—
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.522	+0.829	15	326.0	Medium / Hard	1:32.356	+0.58%	10	Hard
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:31.586	+0.893	16	326.9	Hard / Hard	1:31.974	+0.16%	12	Hard
9	Jack Miller	01:31.591	+0.898	14	323.3	— / —	—			—
10	Alvaro Bautista	01:31.623	+0.930	18	325.6	— / —	—			—
11	Johann Zarco	01:31.635	+0.942	14	322.9	Medium / Hard	—			—
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.733	+1.040	17	320.3	Hard / Hard	1:32.734	+0.99%	13	Hard
13	Alex Rins	01:31.754	+1.061	16	324.6	Hard / Hard	1:32.276	+0.49%	12	Hard
14	Bradley Smith	01:32.050	+1.357	16	318.7	— / —	—			—
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.099	+1.406	17	320.3	— / —	—			—
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.171	+1.478	14	325.5	Medium / Soft	1:33.668	+2.01%	6	Hard
17	Thomas Luthi	01:32.257	+1.564	14	319.4	Hard / Hard	1:33.273	+1.58%	10	Hard
18	Hafizh Syahrin	01:32.459	+1.766	15	320.7	Hard / Hard	1:32.907	+1.18%	7	Hard
19	Xavier Simeon	01:32.527	+1.834	14	324.7	— / —	—			—
20	Karel Abraham	01:32.554	+1.861	7	320.3	— / —	—			—
21	Pol Espargaro	01:32.706	+2.013	14	323.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
22	Scott Redding	01:32.719	+2.026	16	322.3	Hard / Hard	1:32.970	+1.25%	7	Hard
23	Jordi Torres	01:33.157	+2.464	16	325.0	Medium / Medium	1:33.608	+1.94%	9	Medium

Q1 · 06.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:30.031	—	8	325.7	— / —
2	Alex Rins	01:30.921	+0.890	8	322.7	— / —
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.923	+0.892	7	321.7	Hard / Soft
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.995	+0.964	9	318.6	Medium / Soft
5	Bradley Smith	01:31.207	+1.176	8	321.0	Hard / Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.243	+1.212	8	323.1	Hard / Soft
7	Karel Abraham	01:31.374	+1.343	8	321.4	— / —
8	Hafizh Syahrin	01:31.389	+1.358	8	320.1	— / —
9	Pol Espargaro	01:31.399	+1.368	8	321.0	— / —
10	Xavier Simeon	01:31.686	+1.655	8	324.3	Medium / Soft
11	Jordi Torres	01:31.819	+1.788	8	326.8	Medium / Soft
12	Thomas Luthi	01:31.830	+1.799	8	320.6	Hard / Soft
13	Scott Redding	01:31.835	+1.804	6	321.3	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 06.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:30.088	—	8	326.2	Hard / Soft
2	Valentino Rossi	01:30.099	+0.011	8	325.8	Medium / Soft
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.227	+0.139	8	328.4	missing / missing
4	Maverick Viñales	01:30.328	+0.240	9	326.4	Medium / Soft
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.356	+0.268	8	328.4	Hard / Soft
6	Andrea Iannone	01:30.419	+0.331	8	325.0	Medium / Soft
7	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.458	+0.370	8	329.3	Hard / Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:30.471	+0.383	8	325.8	Medium / Soft
9	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.599	+0.511	8	330.0	Medium / Soft
10	Jack Miller	01:30.660	+0.572	7	323.0	Medium / Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:30.738	+0.650	8	323.1	Medium / Soft
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:30.976	+0.888	8	326.3	Soft / Soft

Warm Up · 07.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:30.863	—	13	326.5	Hard / Hard	1:31.266	—	10	Hard
2	Valentino Rossi	01:30.990	+0.127	13	324.8	Hard / Hard	1:31.761	+0.54%	9	Hard
3	Maverick Viñales	01:31.123	+0.260	12	323.1	Hard / Hard	1:31.972	+0.77%	5	Hard
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.162	+0.299	12	329.6	Hard / Hard	1:31.626	+0.39%	4	Hard
5	Andrea Iannone	01:31.240	+0.377	11	320.5	Medium / Hard	1:32.730	+1.60%	5	Hard
6	Jack Miller	01:31.437	+0.574	13	324.2	Medium / Hard	1:32.060	+0.87%	11	Hard
7	Alvaro Bautista	01:31.588	+0.725	13	323.2	Medium / Medium	1:31.894	+0.69%	11	Medium
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:31.617	+0.754	13	326.8	Hard / Hard	1:31.791	+0.58%	11	Hard
9	Alex Rins	01:31.659	+0.796	12	321.5	Hard / Hard	1:31.751	+0.53%	7	Hard
10	Pol Espargaro	01:31.693	+0.830	11	322.8	Hard / Hard	—			—
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.878	+1.015	12	317.1	Medium / Hard	1:32.714	+1.59%	7	Medium
12	Hafizh Syahrin	01:31.940	+1.077	13	320.0	Medium / Hard	1:32.475	+1.33%	10	Hard
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.948	+1.085	13	320.1	Hard / Soft	1:32.599	+1.46%	5	Soft
14	Bradley Smith	01:32.010	+1.147	13	316.4	Hard / Hard	1:32.460	+1.31%	9	Hard
15	Scott Redding	01:32.030	+1.167	13	322.1	Hard / Hard	1:32.514	+1.37%	9	Hard
16	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.085	+1.222	11	325.9	Medium / Hard	1:32.671	+1.54%	5	Hard
17	Xavier Simeon	01:32.090	+1.227	13	322.7	Medium / Hard	1:32.532	+1.39%	9	Hard
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.179	+1.316	13	319.6	Medium / Soft	1:32.355	+1.19%	10	Soft
19	Johann Zarco	01:32.195	+1.332	13	322.9	Medium / Hard	1:32.464	+1.31%	10	Hard
20	Karel Abraham	01:32.304	+1.441	13	320.8	Hard / Hard	1:33.569	+2.52%	7	Hard
21	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.332	+1.469	11	324.9	Hard / Hard	1:33.758	+2.73%	8	Hard
22	Jordi Torres	01:32.514	+1.651	13	324.8	Medium / Hard	1:32.990	+1.89%	11	Hard
23	Thomas Luthi	01:32.522	+1.659	13	318.1	Hard / Hard	1:33.124	+2.04%	11	Hard

Race · 07.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	39:55.722	25	26	Hard / Hard	1:31.950	+0.10%	24	Hard
2	Andrea Dovizioso	+0.115	20	26	Hard / Hard	1:32.024	+0.18%	24	Hard
3	Maverick Viñales	+0.270	16	26	Hard / Hard	1:31.924	+0.08%	24	Hard
4	Valentino Rossi	+1.564	13	26	Hard / Hard	1:31.994	+0.15%	24	Hard
5	Johann Zarco	+2.747	11	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.965	+0.12%	24	Hard
6	Alex Rins	+3.023	10	26	Hard / Hard	1:31.980	+0.14%	24	Hard
7	Cal Crutchlow	+6.520	9	26	Hard / Hard	1:32.186	+0.36%	24	Hard
8	Alvaro Bautista	+6.691	8	26	Medium / Hard	1:32.082	+0.25%	24	Hard
9	Danilo Petrucci	+9.944	7	26	Hard / Hard	1:32.110	+0.28%	24	Hard
10	Jack Miller	+11.077	6	26	Medium / Hard	1:32.184	+0.36%	24	Hard
11	Andrea Iannone	+15.488	5	26	Medium / Hard	1:32.197	+0.37%	24	Hard
12	Hafizh Syahrin	+17.691	4	26	Hard / Hard	1:32.394	+0.59%	24	Hard
13	Aleix Espargaro	+21.413	3	26	Hard / Soft	1:32.712	+0.93%	24	Soft
14	Franco Morbidelli	+22.802	2	26	Hard / Hard	1:32.833	+1.07%	24	Hard
15	Bradley Smith	+23.628	1	26	Hard / Hard	1:32.845	+1.08%	24	Hard
16	Scott Redding	+23.804	0	26	Hard / Hard	1:32.778	+1.01%	24	Hard
17	Karel Abraham	+32.507	0	26	Hard / Hard	1:33.197	+1.46%	24	Hard
18	Xavier Simeon	+37.216	0	26	Medium / Hard	1:33.225	+1.49%	24	Hard
19	Jordi Torres	+39.204	0	26	Medium / Hard	1:33.197	+1.46%	24	Hard
20	Thomas Luthi	+39.421	0	26	Hard / Hard	1:33.042	+1.29%	24	Hard
21	Pol Espargaro	+53.388	0	26	Hard / Hard	1:33.129	+1.39%	24	Hard
22	Takaaki Nakagami	+0.000	0	24	Hard / Hard	1:33.350	+1.63%	18	Hard
Retired	Daniel Pedrosa		0	18	Hard / Hard	1:31.855	—	15	Hard

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Johann Zarco	1:31.974	—	+0.344	Medium	8
Alvaro Bautista	1:31.977	+0.003	+0.086	Medium	15
Scott Redding	1:32.756*	+0.782	+0.263	Medium	3
Pol Espargaro	1:32.824*	+0.850	+0.406	Medium	4
Hafizh Syahrin	1:33.443	+1.469	+0.491	Medium	5
Jordi Torres	1:33.460	+1.486	+0.140	Medium	9

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Marc Marquez	56%	1 ✓
2	Franco Morbidelli	48%	3
3	Bradley Smith	35%	5
4	Pol Espargaro	17%	9
5	Aleix Espargaro	17%	6
6	Alex Rins	7%	2 ✓
7	Takaaki Nakagami	9%	4
8	Hafizh Syahrin	4%	8
9	Thomas Luthi	3%	12
10	Xavier Simeon	3%	10
11	Scott Redding	2%	13
12	Karel Abraham	0%	7
13	Jordi Torres	0%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Andrea Dovizioso	38%	72%	92%	3
2	Jack Miller	24%	53%	86%	10
3	Maverick Viñales	16%	47%	81%	4
4	Cal Crutchlow	5%	37%	71%	5
5	Danilo Petrucci	4%	28%	58%	9
6	Daniel Pedrosa	6%	20%	56%	7
7	Valentino Rossi	1%	10%	44%	2
8	Andrea Iannone	3%	15%	35%	6
9	Johann Zarco	1%	6%	26%	8
10	Alvaro Bautista	3%	7%	21%	12
11	Marc Marquez	0%	6%	20%	1
12	Alex Rins	0%	1%	12%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	31%	61%	75%	85%	13%	1
Valentino Rossi	2	23%	58%	75%	89%	8%	4
Andrea Dovizioso	3	14%	44%	65%	84%	13%	2
Maverick Viñales	4	12%	40%	64%	85%	10%	3
Cal Crutchlow	5	7%	23%	42%	66%	28%	7
Andrea Iannone	6	4%	18%	37%	68%	26%	11
Daniel Pedrosa	7	4%	17%	38%	77%	12%	—
Johann Zarco	8	3%	12%	32%	78%	9%	5
Danilo Petrucci	9	1%	7%	18%	59%	22%	9
Jack Miller	10	1%	6%	15%	52%	26%	10
Alex Rins	11	0%	3%	10%	47%	25%	6
Alvaro Bautista	12	0%	3%	9%	44%	21%	8
Franco Morbidelli	13	0%	2%	7%	44%	7%	14
Takaaki Nakagami	14	0%	2%	5%	33%	17%	22
Bradley Smith	15	0%	1%	3%	27%	14%	15
Aleix Espargaro	16	0%	1%	2%	18%	24%	13
Karel Abraham	17	0%	0%	1%	12%	31%	17
Hafizh Syahrin	18	0%	0%	1%	10%	17%	12
Pol Espargaro	19	0%	0%	0%	7%	22%	21
Xavier Simeon	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	27%	18
Jordi Torres	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	16%	19
Thomas Luthi	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	22%	20
Scott Redding	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	16%	16

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,567 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.44%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.47%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.41%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.37%	Fabio Quartararo +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.39%
S3	Raul Fernandez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.13%	Raul Fernandez +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%
S2	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.53%	Alex Marquez +0.61%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%
S4	Jack Miller +0.24%	Marc Marquez +0.25%	Franco Morbidelli +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.16%	Pedro Acosta +0.39%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.41%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.28%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.60%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.31%
S4	Jorge Martin	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini +0.09%	Brad Binder +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.41%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.40%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.53%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.42%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Valentino Rossi +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.41%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%
S3	Valentino Rossi +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.26%	Jack Miller +0.39%
S4	Valentino Rossi	Andrea Dovizioso +0.50%	Maverick Viñales +0.51%

Fastest per sector: 2018

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

19/100

Position index

71%

Pole wins

67%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 60% of the time (between 31% and 83%; 10 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	271	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	194	−77
3	Valentino Rossi	172	−99
4	Maverick Viñales	146	−125
5	Jorge Lorenzo	130	−141
6	Cal Crutchlow	128	−143

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Miguel OliveiraKTM
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 12% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/22	14%
2025	2/22	9%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	3/21	14%
2022	1/24	4%
2019	2/22	9%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet