Round 17 of 19 Aftermath

Australian Grand Prix 2018

4.445 m · 27 laps · since 1989

26.10 – 28.10.2018

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	40:51.081	25
2	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+1.543	20
3	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+1.832	16
4	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Ducati Team	+4.072	13
5	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+5.017	11
6	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+5.132	10
7	Jack Miller	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+6.756	9
8	Franco Morbidelli	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+21.805	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+22.904	7
10	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+22.940	6
11	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+34.386	5
12	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+35.025	4
13	Scott Redding	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+36.348	3
14	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+36.389	2
15	Xavier Simeon	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+44.214	1
16	Thomas Luthi	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+48.226	0
17	Jordi Torres	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+64.965	0
18	Mike Jones	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+79.817	0
DNF	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Hafizh Syahrin	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 31%	Maverick Viñales · 22% · from P2	0.83 / 0.83	2.6 / 2.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:30.381	—	+0.292	Hard	25
Andrea Iannone	1:30.550	+0.169	+0.224	Hard	25
Alvaro Bautista	1:30.570	+0.189	+0.086	Hard	25
Andrea Dovizioso	1:30.578	+0.197	+0.226	Hard	25
Alex Rins	1:30.595	+0.214	+0.217	Hard	25
Jack Miller	1:30.645	+0.264	+0.105	Hard	25
Valentino Rossi	1:30.722	+0.341	+0.508	Hard	25
Hafizh Syahrin	1:30.762	+0.381	+0.491	Hard	16
Bradley Smith	1:30.915	+0.534	+0.085	Hard	25
Danilo Petrucci	1:30.979	+0.598	+0.574	Hard	25
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.022	+0.641	+0.209	Soft	25
Pol Espargaro	1:31.104	+0.723	+0.406	Soft	20
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.124	+0.743	+0.512	Hard	25
Takaaki Nakagami	1:31.638	+1.257	+0.359	Soft	25
Karel Abraham	1:31.641	+1.260	—	Hard	25
Scott Redding	1:31.664	+1.283	+0.263	Soft	25
Daniel Pedrosa	1:31.688	+1.307	+0.089	Soft	9
Xavier Simeon	1:31.819	+1.438	—	Hard	25
Thomas Luthi	1:32.022	+1.641	+0.237	Hard	25
Jordi Torres	1:32.629	+2.248	+0.140	Hard	25
Mike Jones	1:33.218	+2.837	—	Soft	25

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

108

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

20/27

Laps led by the winner

Maverick Viñales

1.543 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Aleix Espargaro, from P19 to P9.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Jack Miller (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	16:01:09		Jump start	Jump start
Race	16:08:03	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:09:34	Marc Marquez	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	16:17:54	Daniel Pedrosa	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:28:29	Hafizh Syahrin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:35:43	Pol Espargaro	Retired	Entered pits and retired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jack Miller (started P6).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Bradley Smith	16	10	+6
Jack Miller	6	1	+5
Andrea Dovizioso	9	5	+4
Danilo Petrucci	8	23	−15
Maverick Viñales	2	9	−7
Johann Zarco	3	8	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alvaro Bautista	12→4	+5.9
Aleix Espargaro	19→9	+5.4
Andrea Dovizioso	9→3	+5.0
Xavier Simeon	17→15	−1.9
Takaaki Nakagami	14→14	−2.8
Danilo Petrucci	8→12	−4.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	70%	+0.40%	+0.009	1	3	8.4
Soft	30%	+1.39%	+0.024	0	0	13.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

12.5 °C

Air

max 12.6 °C

53%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

15 km/h

Wind

gusts 39 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 26.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:29.952	—	23	333.2	Soft / Medium	1:30.610	—	18	Medium
2	Jack Miller	01:29.989	+0.037	19	334.6	Soft / Soft	1:32.797	+2.41%	6	Medium
3	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.027	+0.075	20	337.2	Soft / Soft	1:31.613	+1.11%	11	Medium
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.121	+0.169	20	337.1	Soft / Soft	1:32.744	+2.36%	7	Medium
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.266	+0.314	21	339.5	Soft / Medium	1:31.992	+1.53%	7	Medium
6	Marc Marquez	01:30.384	+0.432	16	334.8	Soft / Medium	1:31.318	+0.78%	10	Medium
7	Andrea Iannone	01:30.418	+0.466	19	334.3	Soft / Medium	1:31.697	+1.20%	5	Medium
8	Johann Zarco	01:30.658	+0.706	21	332.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.354	+0.82%	12	Medium
9	Karel Abraham	01:30.772	+0.820	20	329.9	Soft / Soft	1:34.487	+4.28%	10	Medium
10	Valentino Rossi	01:30.828	+0.876	19	329.2	Soft / Medium	1:31.311	+0.77%	11	Medium
11	Pol Espargaro	01:30.936	+0.984	20	335.7	Soft / Soft	1:32.890	+2.52%	7	Medium
12	Hafizh Syahrin	01:30.956	+1.004	20	332.3	Soft / Medium	1:32.220	+1.78%	12	Medium
13	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.984	+1.032	18	329.3	Soft / Soft	1:32.080	+1.62%	10	Soft
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:31.197	+1.245	19	337.6	Soft / Medium	1:32.462	+2.04%	11	Medium
15	Alex Rins	01:31.207	+1.255	23	332.2	Soft / Soft	1:32.018	+1.55%	17	Soft
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.339	+1.387	22	333.8	Soft / Soft	1:33.405	+3.09%	11	Medium
17	Bradley Smith	01:31.546	+1.594	15	326.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.670	+1.718	22	327.1	Soft / Medium	1:32.935	+2.57%	12	Medium
19	Scott Redding	01:31.941	+1.989	15	327.4	Soft / Medium	1:32.798	+2.42%	5	Medium
20	Xavier Simeon	01:32.013	+2.061	18	325.2	Soft / Hard	1:32.989	+2.63%	5	Medium
21	Thomas Luthi	01:32.024	+2.072	21	328.3	Soft / Medium	1:32.593	+2.19%	17	Medium
22	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.334	+2.382	18	330.9	Soft / Medium	1:33.476	+3.16%	11	Medium
23	Jordi Torres	01:32.793	+2.841	19	332.9	Soft / Medium	1:33.795	+3.52%	11	Medium
24	Mike Jones	01:35.012	+5.060	22	327.5	Soft / Soft	1:36.536	+6.54%	17	Soft

FP2 · 26.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Iannone	01:29.131	—	19	336.4	Soft / Soft	1:30.256	—	9	Hard
2	Danilo Petrucci	01:29.291	+0.160	21	338.3	Soft / Soft	1:31.360	+1.22%	12	Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:29.354	+0.223	21	335.0	Soft / Soft	1:30.863	+0.67%	6	Soft
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:29.406	+0.275	20	340.4	Soft / Soft	1:30.784	+0.59%	10	Soft
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:29.616	+0.485	16	341.2	Medium / Medium	1:30.673	+0.46%	7	Medium
6	Johann Zarco	01:29.686	+0.555	20	336.2	Soft / Soft	1:30.906	+0.72%	7	Soft
7	Marc Marquez	01:29.739	+0.608	24	337.7	Medium / Soft	1:30.904	+0.72%	14	Soft
8	Jack Miller	01:29.838	+0.707	20	333.7	Soft / Soft	1:31.113	+0.95%	11	Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:29.918	+0.787	23	333.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.476	+1.35%	5	Hard
10	Valentino Rossi	01:30.133	+1.002	21	332.4	Soft / Soft	1:30.343	+0.10%	9	Soft
11	Hafizh Syahrin	01:30.179	+1.048	20	332.7	Soft / Soft	1:32.364	+2.34%	6	Medium
12	Bradley Smith	01:30.346	+1.215	24	333.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.489	+1.37%	16	Hard
13	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.472	+1.341	21	328.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.353	+1.22%	13	Medium
14	Pol Espargaro	01:30.545	+1.414	20	339.0	Soft / Soft	1:31.521	+1.40%	11	Soft
15	Alvaro Bautista	01:30.734	+1.603	5	339.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.736	+1.605	22	335.9	Medium / Soft	1:32.336	+2.31%	12	Soft
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.787	+1.656	21	326.7	Medium / Hard	1:32.317	+2.28%	11	Hard
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.830	+1.699	19	332.8	Medium / Hard	1:31.872	+1.79%	12	Soft
19	Karel Abraham	01:31.166	+2.035	18	331.6	Soft / Soft	1:32.418	+2.40%	6	Soft
20	Xavier Simeon	01:31.275	+2.144	22	328.8	Soft / Hard	1:31.951	+1.88%	12	Hard
21	Thomas Luthi	01:31.539	+2.408	20	328.8	Soft / Soft	1:32.376	+2.35%	11	Hard
22	Jordi Torres	01:31.570	+2.439	21	331.3	Soft / Soft	1:32.349	+2.32%	7	Medium
23	Scott Redding	01:32.045	+2.914	9	326.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
24	Mike Jones	01:33.633	+4.502	23	329.8	Soft / Soft	1:33.868	+4.00%	19	Soft

FP3 · 27.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:29.714	—	22	340.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.122	+0.53%	6	Hard
2	Maverick Viñales	01:29.756	+0.042	22	337.5	Soft / Hard	1:30.742	+0.11%	5	Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:29.792	+0.078	20	336.8	Soft / Soft	1:31.728	+1.20%	6	Medium
4	Andrea Iannone	01:29.867	+0.153	20	336.1	Soft / Hard	1:30.645	—	9	Hard
5	Valentino Rossi	01:29.974	+0.260	21	334.8	Soft / Soft	1:32.492	+2.04%	7	Hard
6	Pol Espargaro	01:30.221	+0.507	22	336.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.973	+1.47%	12	Medium
7	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.259	+0.545	20	327.6	Soft / Soft	1:32.252	+1.77%	6	Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:30.296	+0.582	18	334.0	Soft / Soft	1:31.339	+0.77%	6	Soft
9	Alvaro Bautista	01:30.485	+0.771	22	338.7	Soft / Soft	1:31.794	+1.27%	12	Soft
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.580	+0.866	20	338.1	Soft / Hard	1:31.966	+1.46%	8	Hard
11	Karel Abraham	01:30.720	+1.006	19	332.9	Soft / Soft	1:33.358	+2.99%	6	Soft
12	Bradley Smith	01:30.724	+1.010	17	332.9	Soft / Hard	1:32.870	+2.46%	6	Soft
13	Alex Rins	01:30.830	+1.116	22	334.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.846	+1.132	21	332.7	Soft / Soft	1:31.739	+1.21%	7	Soft
15	Xavier Simeon	01:30.973	+1.259	20	333.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.017	+1.51%	7	Soft
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.047	+1.333	19	329.4	Soft / Soft	1:32.348	+1.88%	12	Medium
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.205	+1.491	19	336.2	Soft / Soft	1:31.582	+1.03%	6	Hard
18	Thomas Luthi	01:31.320	+1.606	20	330.4	Soft / Medium	1:32.838	+2.42%	6	Medium
19	Hafizh Syahrin	01:31.655	+1.941	7	333.9	Soft / Soft	1:33.749	+3.42%	5	Soft
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.860	+2.146	13	332.6	Soft / Soft	1:33.306	+2.94%	5	Soft
21	Jordi Torres	01:32.045	+2.331	15	335.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.710	+2.28%	5	Soft
22	Mike Jones	01:32.988	+3.274	22	334.0	Soft / Soft	1:33.912	+3.60%	15	Soft
23	Scott Redding	01:33.139	+3.425	11	326.4	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 27.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Iannone	01:29.604	—	17	335.8	Medium / Hard	1:30.146	—	10	Hard
2	Maverick Viñales	01:30.148	+0.544	17	333.7	Medium / Hard	1:30.964	+0.91%	13	Hard
3	Valentino Rossi	01:30.292	+0.688	14	337.1	Soft / Hard	—			—
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.299	+0.695	11	339.1	Soft / Hard	1:31.128	+1.09%	6	Hard
5	Johann Zarco	01:30.399	+0.795	16	333.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.131	+1.09%	12	Hard
6	Marc Marquez	01:30.478	+0.874	16	337.0	Medium / Soft	1:30.706	+0.62%	6	Soft
7	Alex Rins	01:30.531	+0.927	15	334.5	Medium / Hard	1:31.194	+1.16%	7	Hard
8	Hafizh Syahrin	01:30.887	+1.283	11	326.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.043	+1.439	14	337.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.138	+2.21%	9	Soft
10	Alvaro Bautista	01:31.087	+1.483	18	333.3	Soft / Hard	1:32.184	+2.26%	14	Soft
11	Xavier Simeon	01:31.268	+1.664	15	330.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.404	+2.51%	9	Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.292	+1.688	16	328.9	Medium / Hard	1:32.350	+2.45%	12	Hard
13	Scott Redding	01:31.293	+1.689	12	329.1	Soft / Soft	1:31.814	+1.85%	5	Soft
14	Daniel Pedrosa	01:31.404	+1.800	15	323.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.499	+1.895	12	328.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.662	+2.058	16	329.9	Medium / Soft	1:33.812	+4.07%	8	Soft
17	Bradley Smith	01:31.706	+2.102	12	331.4	Soft / Hard	1:32.448	+2.55%	7	Hard
18	Karel Abraham	01:31.781	+2.177	13	329.6	Soft / Soft	1:33.168	+3.35%	11	Soft
19	Jack Miller	01:31.802	+2.198	7	332.6	Medium / Hard	—			—
20	Thomas Luthi	01:31.883	+2.279	14	324.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.458	+2.57%	9	Soft
21	Pol Espargaro	01:31.946	+2.342	14	332.4	Soft / Soft	1:32.380	+2.48%	6	Soft
22	Jordi Torres	01:32.065	+2.461	16	335.4	Soft / Hard	1:32.558	+2.68%	8	Hard
23	Mike Jones	01:33.237	+3.633	13	327.6	Soft / Soft	1:35.120	+5.52%	5	Soft

Q1 · 27.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Alvaro Bautista	01:29.851	—	8	336.2	Soft / Soft
2	Pol Espargaro	01:30.105	+0.254	8	332.1	Soft / Soft
3	Karel Abraham	01:30.174	+0.323	9	330.3	Soft / Soft
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.452	+0.601	8	329.9	Soft / Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.518	+0.667	8	327.9	Medium / Soft
6	Bradley Smith	01:30.646	+0.795	9	329.9	Soft / Soft
7	Xavier Simeon	01:30.679	+0.828	9	330.3	Soft / Soft
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.770	+0.919	9	325.3	Soft / Soft
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.911	+1.060	8	328.9	Medium / Soft
10	Thomas Luthi	01:30.958	+1.107	9	328.7	Soft / Soft
11	Jordi Torres	01:31.141	+1.290	8	338.2	Soft / Soft
12	Scott Redding	01:31.309	+1.458	9	326.2	Soft / Soft
13	Mike Jones	01:32.639	+2.788	8	325.3	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 27.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:29.199	—	9	338.1	Soft / Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:29.509	+0.310	9	332.5	Soft / Soft
3	Johann Zarco	01:29.705	+0.506	8	333.5	Soft / Soft
4	Andrea Iannone	01:29.712	+0.513	9	331.3	Soft / Soft
5	Alex Rins	01:30.026	+0.827	9	331.6	Soft / Soft
6	Jack Miller	01:30.140	+0.941	9	332.8	Soft / Soft
7	Valentino Rossi	01:30.270	+1.071	9	331.5	Soft / Soft
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.328	+1.129	9	334.4	Soft / Soft
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.519	+1.320	7	334.3	Soft / Soft
10	Hafizh Syahrin	01:30.593	+1.394	8	326.7	Soft / Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	01:30.640	+1.441	7	332.7	Soft / Soft
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:32.367	+3.168	3	331.3	Soft / Soft

Warm Up · 28.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Iannone	01:29.254	—	11	335.8	— / —	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:29.583	+0.329	13	335.2	— / —	—			—
3	Johann Zarco	01:29.942	+0.688	13	335.6	Soft / Soft	1:30.473	—	10	Soft
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.020	+0.766	13	340.2	Soft / Hard	1:31.584	+1.23%	11	Hard
5	Marc Marquez	01:30.072	+0.818	10	333.2	Soft / Hard	—			—
6	Alex Rins	01:30.131	+0.877	12	331.5	— / —	—			—
7	Pol Espargaro	01:30.280	+1.026	13	332.7	— / —	—			—
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.300	+1.046	12	334.9	Soft / Hard	—			—
9	Jack Miller	01:30.358	+1.104	13	335.2	Medium / Hard	1:31.188	+0.79%	10	Hard
10	Bradley Smith	01:30.623	+1.369	13	328.6	Soft / Hard	1:30.983	+0.56%	9	Hard
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.627	+1.373	10	328.0	Soft / Hard	—			—
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.647	+1.393	11	333.7	— / —	—			—
13	Hafizh Syahrin	01:30.701	+1.447	5	326.9	— / —	—			—
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:30.749	+1.495	9	336.2	— / —	—			—
15	Karel Abraham	01:30.757	+1.503	12	332.2	Soft / Hard	1:32.178	+1.89%	8	Hard
16	Thomas Luthi	01:30.861	+1.607	10	324.0	Soft / Hard	1:32.480	+2.22%	8	Hard
17	Valentino Rossi	01:30.885	+1.631	11	330.2	Soft / Hard	—			—
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.928	+1.674	12	325.9	— / —	—			—
19	Daniel Pedrosa	01:31.253	+1.999	11	325.0	— / —	—			—
20	Jordi Torres	01:31.301	+2.047	13	333.8	Soft / Hard	—			—
21	Xavier Simeon	01:31.325	+2.071	10	324.9	Soft / Hard	—			—
22	Scott Redding	01:31.456	+2.202	9	327.7	Soft / Soft	1:32.143	+1.85%	6	Soft
23	Mike Jones	01:33.185	+3.931	12	328.8	Soft / Soft	1:33.696	+3.56%	8	Soft

Race · 28.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	40:51.081	25	27	Soft / Hard	1:30.381	—	25	Hard
2	Andrea Iannone	+1.543	20	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.550	+0.19%	25	Hard
3	Andrea Dovizioso	+1.832	16	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.578	+0.22%	25	Hard
4	Alvaro Bautista	+4.072	13	27	Soft / Hard	1:30.570	+0.21%	25	Hard
5	Alex Rins	+5.017	11	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.595	+0.24%	25	Hard
6	Valentino Rossi	+5.132	10	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.722	+0.38%	25	Hard
7	Jack Miller	+6.756	9	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.645	+0.29%	25	Hard
8	Franco Morbidelli	+21.805	8	27	Medium / Hard	1:31.124	+0.82%	25	Hard
9	Aleix Espargaro	+22.904	7	27	Medium / Soft	1:31.022	+0.71%	25	Soft
10	Bradley Smith	+22.940	6	27	Soft / Hard	1:30.915	+0.59%	25	Hard
11	Karel Abraham	+34.386	5	27	Soft / Hard	1:31.641	+1.39%	25	Hard
12	Danilo Petrucci	+35.025	4	27	Soft / Hard	1:30.979	+0.66%	25	Hard
13	Scott Redding	+36.348	3	27	Soft / Soft	1:31.664	+1.42%	25	Soft
14	Takaaki Nakagami	+36.389	2	27	Medium / Soft	1:31.638	+1.39%	25	Soft
15	Xavier Simeon	+44.214	1	27	Soft / Hard	1:31.819	+1.59%	25	Hard
16	Thomas Luthi	+48.226	0	27	Medium / Hard	1:32.022	+1.82%	25	Hard
17	Jordi Torres	+64.965	0	27	Soft / Hard	1:32.629	+2.49%	25	Hard
18	Mike Jones	+79.817	0	27	Soft / Soft	1:33.218	+3.14%	25	Soft
Retired	Daniel Pedrosa		0	11	Medium / Soft	1:31.688	+1.45%	9	Soft
Retired	Hafizh Syahrin		0	18	Medium / Hard	1:30.762	+0.42%	16	Hard
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	5	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	5	Medium / Hard	—			—
Retired	Pol Espargaro		0	22	Soft / Soft	1:31.104	+0.80%	20	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Rins	1:31.031*	—	+0.217	Medium	3
Daniel Pedrosa	1:31.302	+0.271	+0.089	Medium	5
Hafizh Syahrin	1:31.795	+0.764	+0.491	Medium	6

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Pol Espargaro	57%	2 ✓
2	Daniel Pedrosa	47%	8
3	Bradley Smith	35%	6
4	Alvaro Bautista	16%	1 ✓
5	Karel Abraham	16%	3
6	Aleix Espargaro	8%	9
7	Franco Morbidelli	10%	5
8	Takaaki Nakagami	4%	4
9	Xavier Simeon	3%	7
10	Scott Redding	3%	12
11	Thomas Luthi	2%	10
12	Jordi Torres	0%	11
13	Mike Jones	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Andrea Iannone	39%	72%	92%	4
2	Danilo Petrucci	23%	52%	86%	8
3	Maverick Viñales	15%	47%	82%	2
4	Andrea Dovizioso	5%	37%	71%	9
5	Johann Zarco	4%	27%	57%	3
6	Marc Marquez	6%	19%	55%	1
7	Jack Miller	1%	11%	44%	6
8	Alex Rins	3%	14%	36%	5
9	Valentino Rossi	1%	6%	26%	7
10	Hafizh Syahrin	3%	8%	21%	10
11	Pol Espargaro	1%	7%	20%	11
12	Alvaro Bautista	0%	1%	12%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	31%	61%	76%	86%	13%	—
Maverick Viñales	2	22%	55%	74%	89%	10%	1
Johann Zarco	3	17%	49%	71%	89%	8%	—
Andrea Iannone	4	9%	33%	52%	71%	26%	2
Alex Rins	5	6%	24%	43%	69%	24%	5
Jack Miller	6	5%	20%	39%	69%	26%	7
Valentino Rossi	7	4%	20%	40%	81%	8%	6
Danilo Petrucci	8	3%	13%	28%	65%	22%	12
Andrea Dovizioso	9	2%	9%	22%	68%	13%	3
Hafizh Syahrin	10	1%	6%	17%	61%	15%	—
Pol Espargaro	11	1%	4%	12%	50%	22%	—
Alvaro Bautista	12	0%	3%	9%	45%	20%	4
Karel Abraham	13	0%	2%	6%	31%	31%	11
Takaaki Nakagami	14	0%	1%	5%	33%	15%	14
Franco Morbidelli	15	0%	1%	3%	30%	6%	8
Bradley Smith	16	0%	1%	2%	20%	13%	10
Xavier Simeon	17	0%	0%	1%	13%	24%	15
Daniel Pedrosa	18	0%	0%	1%	11%	12%	—
Aleix Espargaro	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	25%	9
Thomas Luthi	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	20%	16
Jordi Torres	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	13%	17
Scott Redding	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	15%	13
Mike Jones	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	14%	18

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,454 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Pedro Acosta +0.35%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.53%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.40%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%	Raul Fernandez +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Raul Fernandez +0.43%	Alex Marquez +0.55%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi	Brad Binder +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.14%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%
S3	Jorge Martin	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.26%
S2	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.75%	Marc Marquez +0.83%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.51%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Brad Binder +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.11%	Enea Bastianini +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Remy Gardner +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Jack Miller +0.65%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Cal Crutchlow +0.67%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%	Andrea Iannone +0.59%
S2	Jack Miller +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.87%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.59%

Fastest per sector: 2018

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

5/100

Position index

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	296	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	210	−86
3	Valentino Rossi	195	−101
4	Maverick Viñales	180	−116
5	Cal Crutchlow	148	−148
6	Danilo Petrucci	137	−159

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2017 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

7/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.799 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Scott Redding, from P20 to P11.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Daniel Pedrosa (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Raul FernandezAprilia
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Johann ZarcoDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	2/21	10%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/21	24%
2018	5/23	22%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet