Round 5 of 19 Aftermath

French Grand Prix 2018

4.185 m · 27 laps · since 1969

18.05 – 20.05.2018

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:49.773	25
2	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+2.310	20
3	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+5.350	16
4	Jack Miller	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+6.314	13
5	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+7.419	11
6	Jorge Lorenzo	Ducati	Ducati Team	+10.355	10
7	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+23.758	9
8	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+25.795	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+26.206	7
10	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+27.937	6
11	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+32.304	5
12	Hafizh Syahrin	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+34.962	4
13	Franco Morbidelli	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+37.881	3
14	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+38.299	2
15	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+41.986	1
16	Thomas Luthi	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+45.260	0
17	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+56.872	0
18	Xavier Simeon	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+72.117	0
DNF	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	Retired	0
DNF	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Scott Redding	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Johann Zarco · 34%	Marc Marquez · 19% · from P2	0.95 / 0.95	1.6 / 1.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:32.707	—	+0.210	Hard	25
Danilo Petrucci	1:32.788	+0.081	+0.574	Soft	25
Jack Miller	1:32.918	+0.211	+0.105	Soft	25
Valentino Rossi	1:32.930	+0.223	+0.508	Soft	25
Daniel Pedrosa	1:32.932	+0.225	+0.089	Soft	25
Jorge Lorenzo	1:33.113	+0.406	+1.158	Soft	25
Johann Zarco	1:33.202	+0.495	+0.344	Soft	6
Aleix Espargaro	1:33.498	+0.791	+0.209	Soft	25
Maverick Viñales	1:33.581	+0.874	+0.292	Soft	25
Alex Rins	1:33.683	+0.976	+0.217	Soft	25
Cal Crutchlow	1:33.756	+1.049	+0.729	Soft	25
Pol Espargaro	1:33.863	+1.156	+0.406	Soft	25
Hafizh Syahrin	1:33.896	+1.189	+0.491	Soft	25
Bradley Smith	1:34.017	+1.310	+0.085	Soft	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:34.124	+1.417	+0.512	Soft	25
Takaaki Nakagami	1:34.147	+1.440	+0.359	Soft	25
Thomas Luthi	1:34.351	+1.644	+0.237	Soft	25
Tito Rabat	1:34.364	+1.657	+0.229	Soft	7
Scott Redding	1:34.488	+1.781	+0.263	Soft	7
Karel Abraham	1:34.709	+2.002	—	Soft	25
Xavier Simeon	1:35.259	+2.552	—	Soft	25

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

18/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.310 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Karel Abraham, from P24 to P17.

Longest battle: Maverick Viñales vs Pol Espargaro (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:00:57	Andrea Iannone	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:29		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:02:52	Alvaro Bautista	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:03:15	Tito Rabat	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:07:05	Andrea Dovizioso	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:12:10	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:13:57	Johann Zarco	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:17:19	Scott Redding	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:17:25	Tito Rabat	Retired	Entered pits and retired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P6).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Rins	15	8	+7
Pol Espargaro	18	12	+6
Jorge Lorenzo	6	1	+5
Hafizh Syahrin	14	20	−6
Marc Marquez	2	5	−3
Maverick Viñales	8	11	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi	9→3	+5.0
Daniel Pedrosa	10→5	+3.6
Pol Espargaro	18→11	+2.8
Hafizh Syahrin	14→12	−0.8
Bradley Smith	17→14	−0.9
Xavier Simeon	23→18	−1.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	96%	+1.13%	−0.018	0	2	10.0
Hard	4%	0.00%	−0.023	1	1	1.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

20.3 °C

Air

max 21.0 °C

48%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

10 km/h

Wind

gusts 26 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 18.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:32.476	—	22	300.2	Soft / Medium	1:34.710	+1.24%	12	Medium
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.501	+0.025	19	304.8	Soft / Soft	1:34.782	+1.32%	10	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:32.543	+0.067	25	304.7	Soft / Medium	1:34.499	+1.01%	21	Medium
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.734	+0.258	22	309.4	Soft / Medium	1:34.019	+0.50%	13	Medium
5	Johann Zarco	01:32.755	+0.279	19	302.9	Soft / Medium	1:33.899	+0.37%	12	Medium
6	Valentino Rossi	01:32.777	+0.301	20	298.6	Soft / Soft	1:33.690	+0.15%	11	Soft
7	Andrea Iannone	01:32.919	+0.443	22	297.7	Soft / Medium	1:33.550	—	11	Medium
8	Jorge Lorenzo	01:33.084	+0.608	19	303.4	Soft / Medium	1:35.317	+1.89%	6	Medium
9	Bradley Smith	01:33.157	+0.681	20	298.0	Medium / Soft	1:35.608	+2.20%	11	Medium
10	Pol Espargaro	01:33.245	+0.769	19	303.5	Soft / Soft	1:35.971	+2.59%	6	Medium
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.254	+0.778	19	300.9	Soft / Medium	1:34.911	+1.46%	7	Medium
12	Jack Miller	01:33.268	+0.792	18	301.3	Soft / Medium	1:35.283	+1.85%	11	Medium
13	Tito Rabat	01:33.326	+0.850	25	295.8	Soft / Medium	1:34.452	+0.96%	18	Medium
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.380	+0.904	20	295.0	Soft / Medium	1:34.934	+1.48%	11	Medium
15	Daniel Pedrosa	01:33.389	+0.913	24	302.6	Soft / Soft	1:35.112	+1.67%	19	Soft
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:33.492	+1.016	20	300.0	Soft / Medium	1:34.847	+1.39%	13	Medium
17	Alex Rins	01:33.692	+1.216	22	297.7	Soft / Medium	1:34.742	+1.27%	10	Medium
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.833	+1.357	19	296.7	Soft / Medium	1:35.026	+1.58%	12	Medium
19	Scott Redding	01:33.851	+1.375	19	299.2	Soft / Medium	1:34.917	+1.46%	11	Medium
20	Karel Abraham	01:34.333	+1.857	19	301.8	Soft / Soft	1:38.437	+5.22%	6	Medium
21	Franco Morbidelli	01:34.509	+2.033	19	296.8	Soft / Medium	1:35.849	+2.46%	7	Medium
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:34.600	+2.124	19	298.8	Soft / Medium	1:36.058	+2.68%	10	Medium
23	Xavier Simeon	01:35.224	+2.748	20	295.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
24	Thomas Luthi	01:35.232	+2.756	18	293.7	Soft / Medium	1:35.852	+2.46%	11	Medium

FP2 · 18.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.936	—	20	304.9	Medium / Soft	1:33.879	+0.74%	5	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:32.104	+0.168	19	302.2	Medium / Hard	1:33.513	+0.35%	11	Hard
3	Valentino Rossi	01:32.179	+0.243	22	301.2	Medium / Soft	1:33.963	+0.83%	13	Hard
4	Maverick Viñales	01:32.204	+0.268	17	303.8	Medium / Soft	1:35.162	+2.12%	5	Medium
5	Johann Zarco	01:32.279	+0.343	21	305.2	Soft / Soft	1:33.188	—	12	Medium
6	Jack Miller	01:32.302	+0.366	22	299.1	Soft / Soft	1:33.394	+0.22%	7	Soft
7	Pol Espargaro	01:32.414	+0.478	18	304.7	Medium / Soft	1:33.976	+0.85%	8	Soft
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.466	+0.530	21	304.8	Medium / Soft	1:34.576	+1.49%	14	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.572	+0.636	19	298.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.500	+0.34%	10	Soft
10	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.576	+0.640	18	305.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.586	+0.650	18	305.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Tito Rabat	01:32.617	+0.681	24	297.7	Soft / Soft	1:33.554	+0.39%	18	Soft
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.647	+0.711	19	302.2	Medium / Soft	1:33.890	+0.75%	8	Medium
14	Andrea Iannone	01:32.752	+0.816	21	297.6	Soft / Soft	1:33.757	+0.61%	5	Soft
15	Alex Rins	01:32.803	+0.867	23	301.7	Soft / Soft	1:33.666	+0.51%	16	Medium
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:32.851	+0.915	21	300.1	Soft / Soft	1:34.394	+1.29%	5	Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.072	+1.136	14	298.6	Medium / Soft	1:34.649	+1.57%	6	Medium
18	Bradley Smith	01:33.318	+1.382	20	303.6	Medium / Soft	1:34.618	+1.54%	6	Soft
19	Hafizh Syahrin	01:33.435	+1.499	21	301.6	Soft / Soft	1:34.828	+1.76%	11	Medium
20	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.667	+1.731	16	295.7	Medium / Soft	1:34.994	+1.94%	7	Soft
21	Scott Redding	01:33.830	+1.894	12	294.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Karel Abraham	01:33.942	+2.006	18	301.6	Soft / Soft	1:35.358	+2.33%	4	Soft
23	Thomas Luthi	01:34.089	+2.153	22	295.8	Soft / Soft	1:35.239	+2.20%	18	Medium
24	Xavier Simeon	01:34.311	+2.375	17	296.9	Soft / Soft	1:35.517	+2.50%	6	Soft

FP3 · 19.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:31.619	—	24	304.4	Soft / Soft	1:32.906	+0.16%	16	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:31.774	+0.155	22	301.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.851	+0.11%	11	Medium
3	Valentino Rossi	01:31.810	+0.191	22	302.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.122	+0.40%	14	Medium
4	Johann Zarco	01:31.866	+0.247	19	303.9	Soft / Soft	1:32.754	—	12	Soft
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:31.981	+0.362	20	306.1	Soft / Soft	1:33.091	+0.36%	8	Medium
6	Jack Miller	01:32.064	+0.445	24	302.8	Soft / Soft	1:33.298	+0.59%	11	Soft
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.135	+0.516	20	297.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.233	+0.52%	11	Soft
8	Tito Rabat	01:32.160	+0.541	24	298.2	Soft / Soft	1:32.998	+0.26%	18	Soft
9	Andrea Iannone	01:32.179	+0.560	22	298.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.948	+0.21%	6	Medium
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.262	+0.643	18	308.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.289	+0.670	20	302.8	Soft / Soft	1:34.077	+1.43%	5	Soft
12	Alex Rins	01:32.295	+0.676	22	300.7	Soft / Soft	1:33.684	+1.00%	5	Soft
13	Alvaro Bautista	01:32.450	+0.831	21	304.0	Soft / Soft	1:34.257	+1.62%	7	Soft
14	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.525	+0.906	20	304.3	Soft / Soft	1:32.983	+0.25%	6	Soft
15	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.568	+0.949	20	309.1	Soft / Soft	1:34.087	+1.44%	11	Soft
16	Bradley Smith	01:32.953	+1.334	19	300.0	Soft / Soft	1:34.266	+1.63%	5	Medium
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.992	+1.373	20	299.5	Medium / Soft	1:34.026	+1.37%	12	Soft
18	Hafizh Syahrin	01:33.049	+1.430	19	303.8	Soft / Soft	1:33.844	+1.18%	11	Soft
19	Pol Espargaro	01:33.075	+1.456	14	302.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.096	+1.477	21	296.9	Soft / Soft	1:34.402	+1.78%	12	Soft
21	Scott Redding	01:33.107	+1.488	21	295.4	Soft / Soft	1:34.403	+1.78%	6	Soft
22	Karel Abraham	01:33.336	+1.717	18	304.4	Soft / Soft	1:35.230	+2.67%	6	Soft
23	Thomas Luthi	01:33.603	+1.984	18	296.9	Soft / Soft	1:35.342	+2.79%	11	Soft
24	Xavier Simeon	01:34.002	+2.383	17	296.5	Soft / Soft	1:35.102	+2.53%	6	Soft

FP4 · 19.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.337	—	16	308.2	Medium / Medium	1:33.025	+0.38%	11	Medium
2	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.347	+0.010	13	299.8	Soft / Soft	1:33.022	+0.38%	6	Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:32.415	+0.078	16	305.1	Hard / Soft	1:32.670	—	8	Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:32.448	+0.111	17	302.9	Medium / Medium	1:32.978	+0.33%	12	Medium
5	Andrea Iannone	01:32.477	+0.140	16	301.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.913	+0.26%	9	Soft
6	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.605	+0.268	15	308.2	Medium / Soft	1:32.935	+0.29%	11	Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	01:32.627	+0.290	17	303.2	Soft / Medium	1:33.642	+1.05%	13	Soft
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.652	+0.315	17	304.1	Medium / Soft	1:33.351	+0.74%	10	Soft
9	Valentino Rossi	01:32.663	+0.326	15	301.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.836	+0.18%	8	Soft
10	Jack Miller	01:32.801	+0.464	16	297.7	Medium / Soft	1:34.444	+1.91%	8	Hard
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.907	+0.570	13	305.1	Hard / Medium	1:35.504	+3.06%	5	Medium
12	Tito Rabat	01:32.929	+0.592	16	302.4	Soft / Soft	1:33.376	+0.76%	9	Soft
13	Hafizh Syahrin	01:33.050	+0.713	15	303.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.881	+1.31%	6	Soft
14	Alex Rins	01:33.075	+0.738	14	300.0	Soft / Soft	1:33.270	+0.65%	6	Soft
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.080	+0.743	13	300.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:33.134	+0.797	17	302.4	Soft / Soft	1:33.633	+1.04%	10	Soft
17	Pol Espargaro	01:33.157	+0.820	16	304.2	Soft / Soft	1:33.780	+1.20%	11	Soft
18	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.323	+0.986	16	298.1	Medium / Soft	1:34.273	+1.73%	8	Soft
19	Bradley Smith	01:33.334	+0.997	16	298.9	Medium / Soft	1:34.172	+1.62%	12	Medium
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.471	+1.134	16	298.3	Medium / Soft	1:33.866	+1.29%	6	Soft
21	Karel Abraham	01:33.591	+1.254	12	301.4	Medium / Soft	1:34.068	+1.51%	9	Soft
22	Thomas Luthi	01:33.904	+1.567	14	295.0	Soft / Soft	1:34.366	+1.83%	6	Soft
23	Scott Redding	01:33.954	+1.617	14	294.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.249	+8.18%	5	Soft
24	Xavier Simeon	01:34.093	+1.756	15	297.0	Soft / Soft	1:34.660	+2.15%	9	Soft

Q1 · 19.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.818	—	8	302.9	Soft / Soft
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.061	+0.243	9	300.0	Medium / Soft
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.315	+0.497	6	305.5	Medium / Soft
4	Hafizh Syahrin	01:32.397	+0.579	8	302.4	Soft / Soft
5	Alex Rins	01:32.401	+0.583	7	296.5	Medium / Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.770	+0.952	8	300.2	Medium / Soft
7	Bradley Smith	01:32.795	+0.977	8	298.2	Medium / Soft
8	Pol Espargaro	01:32.988	+1.170	6	301.6	Medium / Soft
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.062	+1.244	8	297.1	Medium / Soft
10	Alvaro Bautista	01:33.324	+1.506	6	300.5	Medium / Soft
11	Thomas Luthi	01:33.439	+1.621	9	294.9	Soft / Soft
12	Scott Redding	01:33.676	+1.858	8	296.5	Soft / Soft
13	Xavier Simeon	01:33.802	+1.984	8	297.1	Soft / Soft
14	Karel Abraham	01:33.839	+2.021	5	303.9	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 19.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Johann Zarco	01:31.185	—	8	303.5	Soft / Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:31.293	+0.108	9	303.8	Medium / Soft
3	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.381	+0.196	8	303.2	Soft / Soft
4	Andrea Iannone	01:31.454	+0.269	9	298.4	Soft / Soft
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.553	+0.368	8	305.8	missing / missing
6	Jorge Lorenzo	01:31.590	+0.405	8	306.3	Soft / missing
7	Jack Miller	01:31.683	+0.498	9	300.5	Soft / Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	01:31.784	+0.599	9	303.9	Soft / Soft
9	Valentino Rossi	01:31.900	+0.715	8	301.9	missing / missing
10	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.024	+0.839	9	300.8	Medium / Soft
11	Tito Rabat	01:32.049	+0.864	8	300.5	Soft / Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.455	+1.270	7	300.1	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 20.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:31.868	—	13	304.6	Soft / Hard	1:33.182	+0.07%	10	Hard
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.320	+0.452	12	306.9	Soft / Soft	1:34.058	+1.01%	10	Soft
3	Andrea Iannone	01:32.384	+0.516	12	301.8	Soft / Soft	1:33.118	—	8	Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:32.480	+0.612	13	302.7	Soft / Soft	1:33.436	+0.34%	10	Soft
5	Valentino Rossi	01:32.679	+0.811	12	301.5	Soft / Soft	1:34.062	+1.01%	6	Soft
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.791	+0.923	13	303.4	Soft / Soft	1:33.519	+0.43%	11	Soft
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.803	+0.935	12	301.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.336	+0.23%	10	Soft
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.875	+1.007	13	304.2	Soft / Soft	1:33.766	+0.70%	11	Soft
9	Maverick Viñales	01:32.969	+1.101	11	302.8	Soft / Soft	1:33.140	+0.02%	5	Soft
10	Johann Zarco	01:33.031	+1.163	9	301.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:33.059	+1.191	11	302.9	Soft / Soft	1:33.915	+0.86%	7	Soft
12	Jorge Lorenzo	01:33.094	+1.226	12	307.2	Soft / Soft	1:33.464	+0.37%	10	Soft
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.102	+1.234	13	299.2	Soft / Soft	1:33.657	+0.58%	10	Soft
14	Pol Espargaro	01:33.156	+1.288	13	302.2	Soft / Soft	1:33.752	+0.68%	10	Soft
15	Tito Rabat	01:33.197	+1.329	10	296.0	Soft / Soft	1:34.275	+1.24%	5	Soft
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.228	+1.360	12	298.7	Soft / Soft	1:33.913	+0.85%	9	Soft
17	Alvaro Bautista	01:33.241	+1.373	13	300.8	Soft / Soft	1:33.732	+0.66%	11	Soft
18	Hafizh Syahrin	01:33.394	+1.526	9	295.8	Soft / Soft	1:34.637	+1.63%	6	Soft
19	Bradley Smith	01:33.429	+1.561	12	302.4	Soft / Soft	1:33.808	+0.74%	9	Soft
20	Scott Redding	01:33.590	+1.722	12	295.9	Soft / Soft	1:34.780	+1.79%	8	Soft
21	Alex Rins	01:33.715	+1.847	12	296.7	Soft / Medium	1:34.073	+1.03%	9	Medium
22	Xavier Simeon	01:34.101	+2.233	10	296.4	Soft / Soft	1:35.627	+2.69%	5	Soft
23	Thomas Luthi	01:34.324	+2.456	9	294.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
24	Karel Abraham	01:34.715	+2.847	11	299.9	Soft / Soft	1:37.166	+4.35%	7	Soft

Race · 20.05

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:49.773	25	27	Medium / Hard	1:32.707	—	25	Hard
2	Danilo Petrucci	+2.310	20	27	Soft / Soft	1:32.788	+0.09%	25	Soft
3	Valentino Rossi	+5.350	16	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.930	+0.24%	25	Soft
4	Jack Miller	+6.314	13	27	Soft / Soft	1:32.918	+0.23%	25	Soft
5	Daniel Pedrosa	+7.419	11	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.932	+0.24%	25	Soft
6	Jorge Lorenzo	+10.355	10	27	Soft / Soft	1:33.113	+0.44%	25	Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	+23.758	9	27	Soft / Soft	1:33.581	+0.94%	25	Soft
8	Cal Crutchlow	+25.795	8	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.756	+1.13%	25	Soft
9	Aleix Espargaro	+26.206	7	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.498	+0.85%	25	Soft
10	Alex Rins	+27.937	6	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.683	+1.05%	25	Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	+32.304	5	27	Soft / Soft	1:33.863	+1.25%	25	Soft
12	Hafizh Syahrin	+34.962	4	27	Soft / Soft	1:33.896	+1.28%	25	Soft
13	Franco Morbidelli	+37.881	3	27	Medium / Soft	1:34.124	+1.53%	25	Soft
14	Bradley Smith	+38.299	2	27	Soft / Soft	1:34.017	+1.41%	25	Soft
15	Takaaki Nakagami	+41.986	1	27	Medium / Soft	1:34.147	+1.55%	25	Soft
16	Thomas Luthi	+45.260	0	27	Medium / Soft	1:34.351	+1.77%	25	Soft
17	Karel Abraham	+56.872	0	27	Soft / Soft	1:34.709	+2.16%	25	Soft
18	Xavier Simeon	+72.117	0	27	Soft / Soft	1:35.259	+2.75%	25	Soft
Retired	Alvaro Bautista		0	1	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Andrea Dovizioso		0	4	Medium / Soft	—			—
Out on lap 1	Andrea Iannone		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	8	Medium / Soft	1:33.202	+0.53%	6	Soft
Retired	Scott Redding		0	10	Soft / Soft	1:34.488	+1.92%	7	Soft
Retired	Tito Rabat		0	10	Soft / Soft	1:34.364	+1.79%	7	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Johann Zarco	1:32.706	—	+0.344	Medium	5
Andrea Dovizioso	1:32.838*	+0.132	+0.226	Medium	3
Andrea Iannone	1:32.912*	+0.206	+0.224	Medium	3
Cal Crutchlow	1:32.936*	+0.230	+0.729	Medium	3
Alex Rins	1:33.344*	+0.638	+0.217	Medium	3
Danilo Petrucci	1:33.535*	+0.829	+0.574	Medium	4
Hafizh Syahrin	1:34.661*	+1.955	+0.491	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Cal Crutchlow	55%	3
2	Danilo Petrucci	49%	1 ✓
3	Alex Rins	37%	5
4	Pol Espargaro	16%	8
5	Alvaro Bautista	17%	10
6	Daniel Pedrosa	4%	2 ✓
7	Bradley Smith	8%	7
8	Franco Morbidelli	4%	6
9	Hafizh Syahrin	3%	4
10	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	9
11	Scott Redding	2%	12
12	Karel Abraham	0%	14
13	Thomas Luthi	0%	11
14	Xavier Simeon	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Maverick Viñales	41%	73%	94%	8
2	Marc Marquez	23%	53%	85%	2
3	Valentino Rossi	16%	50%	85%	9
4	Johann Zarco	3%	34%	67%	1
5	Andrea Dovizioso	3%	28%	60%	5
6	Jorge Lorenzo	5%	21%	58%	6
7	Jack Miller	1%	11%	44%	7
8	Aleix Espargaro	3%	14%	35%	12
9	Tito Rabat	1%	7%	27%	11
10	Andrea Iannone	2%	5%	19%	4
11	Danilo Petrucci	0%	3%	17%	3
12	Daniel Pedrosa	0%	1%	12%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Johann Zarco	1	34%	65%	79%	90%	8%	—
Marc Marquez	2	19%	50%	68%	82%	14%	1
Danilo Petrucci	3	13%	40%	57%	74%	23%	2
Andrea Iannone	4	10%	32%	50%	69%	27%	—
Andrea Dovizioso	5	8%	30%	52%	81%	13%	—
Jorge Lorenzo	6	6%	25%	47%	81%	10%	6
Jack Miller	7	3%	16%	33%	65%	26%	4
Maverick Viñales	8	2%	13%	32%	76%	10%	7
Valentino Rossi	9	2%	9%	23%	70%	9%	3
Daniel Pedrosa	10	2%	7%	18%	63%	12%	5
Tito Rabat	11	1%	5%	14%	57%	11%	—
Aleix Espargaro	12	1%	2%	8%	40%	24%	9
Cal Crutchlow	13	0%	2%	6%	32%	29%	8
Hafizh Syahrin	14	0%	1%	5%	30%	21%	12
Alex Rins	15	0%	1%	3%	22%	27%	10
Franco Morbidelli	16	0%	1%	2%	21%	11%	13
Bradley Smith	17	0%	0%	1%	15%	13%	14
Pol Espargaro	18	0%	0%	1%	10%	21%	11
Takaaki Nakagami	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	11%	15
Alvaro Bautista	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	20%	—
Thomas Luthi	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	21%	16
Scott Redding	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	14%	—
Xavier Simeon	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	11%	18
Karel Abraham	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	32%	17

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,197 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.44%	Maverick Viñales +0.46%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.52%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.26%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Pedro Acosta +0.43%	Pol Espargaro +0.45%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%	Augusto Fernandez +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Ai Ogura	Jorge Martin +0.35%	Marc Marquez +0.40%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.06%	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Raul Fernandez +0.22%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.30%	Enea Bastianini +0.33%	Ai Ogura +0.33%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fermin Aldeguer +0.09%	Alex Marquez +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.20%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.07%	Johann Zarco +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.48%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini	Maverick Viñales +0.37%	Pedro Acosta +0.46%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Aleix Espargaro +0.23%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Jack Miller +0.38%	Pedro Acosta +0.38%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Aleix Espargaro +0.43%
S2	Johann Zarco	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.36%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini	Alex Rins +0.30%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Johann Zarco +0.22%	Aleix Espargaro +0.29%
S3	Jack Miller +0.07%	Aleix Espargaro +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Joan Mir +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro	Alex Rins +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.68%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Jack Miller +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.28%	Jack Miller +0.36%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.53%	Maverick Viñales +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.43%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.04%	Johann Zarco +0.11%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jack Miller +0.11%	Pol Espargaro +0.28%
S4	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Joan Mir +0.24%	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller +0.10%	Pol Espargaro +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.25%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.00%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%
S3	Pol Espargaro +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Jack Miller +0.27%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Franco Morbidelli +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.48%	Andrea Iannone +0.55%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.12%	Andrea Iannone +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.49%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.49%	Andrea Iannone +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Valentino Rossi +0.11%	Andrea Iannone +0.16%

Fastest per sector: 2018

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

33/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.69

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	70	—
2	Johann Zarco	58	−12
3	Maverick Viñales	50	−20
4	Andrea Iannone	47	−23
5	Andrea Dovizioso	46	−24
6	Valentino Rossi	40	−30

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2017 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

0/28

Laps led by the winner

3.134 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Tito Rabat, from P22 to P11.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Valentino Rossi (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Jorge MartinAprilia
2025Johann ZarcoHonda
2024Jorge MartinDucati
2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Jack MillerDucati
2020Danilo PetrucciDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/21	24%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	8/21	38%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	6/22	27%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet