Round 4 of 19 Aftermath

Spanish Grand Prix 2018

4.428 m · 25 laps · since 1984

04.05 – 06.05.2018

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:39.678	25
2	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+5.241	20
3	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+8.214	16
4	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+8.617	13
5	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+8.743	11
6	Jack Miller	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+9.768	10
7	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+13.543	9
8	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+14.076	8
9	Franco Morbidelli	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+16.822	7
10	Mika Kallio	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+19.405	6
11	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+21.149	5
12	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+21.174	4
13	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+21.765	3
14	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+22.103	2
15	Scott Redding	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+36.755	1
16	Hafizh Syahrin	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+41.861	0
17	Xavier Simeon	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+49.241	0
18	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+0.000	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Lorenzo	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Thomas Luthi	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Daniel Pedrosa · 23%	Marc Marquez · 8% · from P5	0.92 / 0.92	2.9 / 2.8

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:39.463	—	+0.210	Medium	23
Andrea Dovizioso	1:39.499	+0.036	+0.226	Medium	15
Jorge Lorenzo	1:39.522	+0.059	+1.158	Medium	15
Daniel Pedrosa	1:39.563	+0.100	+0.089	Medium	15
Cal Crutchlow	1:39.602	+0.139	+0.729	Medium	13
Johann Zarco	1:39.971	+0.508	+0.344	Medium	23
Jack Miller	1:40.002	+0.539	+0.105	Hard	23
Valentino Rossi	1:40.035	+0.572	+0.508	Medium	23
Danilo Petrucci	1:40.052	+0.589	+0.574	Medium	23
Andrea Iannone	1:40.075	+0.612	+0.224	Hard	23
Alvaro Bautista	1:40.154	+0.691	+0.086	Medium	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.276	+0.813	+0.512	Medium	23
Maverick Viñales	1:40.281	+0.818	+0.292	Medium	23
Bradley Smith	1:40.429	+0.966	+0.085	Medium	23
Pol Espargaro	1:40.435	+0.972	+0.406	Medium	23
Takaaki Nakagami	1:40.440	+0.977	+0.359	Medium	23
Mika Kallio	1:40.456	+0.993	+0.462	missing	23
Tito Rabat	1:40.499	+1.036	+0.229	Medium	23
Thomas Luthi	1:40.665	+1.202	+0.237	Medium	9
Scott Redding	1:40.919	+1.456	+0.263	Hard	23
Hafizh Syahrin	1:41.360	+1.897	+0.491	missing	23
Xavier Simeon	1:41.489	+2.026	—	Medium	23
Karel Abraham	1:42.794	+3.331	—	Medium	21

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

18/25

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

5.241 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P20 to P8.

Longest battle: Danilo Petrucci vs Valentino Rossi (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:02:00		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:10:28	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:12:29	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:17:47	Karel Abraham	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:20:56	Thomas Luthi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:29:41	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:29:53	Jorge Lorenzo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:29:53	Daniel Pedrosa	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:29:53	Andrea Dovizioso	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P4).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Bradley Smith	21	14	+7
Karel Abraham	23	19	+4
Jorge Lorenzo	4	1	+3
Cal Crutchlow	1	5	−4
Thomas Luthi	18	21	−3
Tito Rabat	17	20	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alvaro Bautista	20→8	+7.0
Marc Marquez	5→1	+4.4
Mika Kallio	19→10	+4.4
Takaaki Nakagami	14→12	−0.8
Tito Rabat	17→14	−0.9
Karel Abraham	23→18	−1.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	82%	+0.76%	+0.023	1	2	9.3
Hard	18%	+0.58%	+0.026	0	1	8.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

24.2 °C

Air

max 24.5 °C

45%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

21 km/h

Wind

gusts 47 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 04.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.268	—	18	287.6	Medium / Soft	1:41.082	+0.96%	10	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	01:39.275	+0.007	21	289.9	Medium / Soft	1:40.126	—	11	Soft
3	Pol Espargaro	01:39.311	+0.043	19	287.6	Medium / Soft	1:41.869	+1.74%	5	Medium
4	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.429	+0.161	20	285.4	Soft / Soft	1:41.176	+1.05%	12	Medium
5	Jack Miller	01:39.483	+0.215	18	281.3	Medium / Soft	1:40.848	+0.72%	5	Medium
6	Valentino Rossi	01:39.488	+0.220	21	280.1	Medium / Soft	1:40.600	+0.47%	15	Medium
7	Johann Zarco	01:39.518	+0.250	20	287.3	Soft / Medium	1:40.408	+0.28%	10	Medium
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.548	+0.280	20	286.1	Soft / Soft	1:42.294	+2.17%	6	Soft
9	Maverick Viñales	01:39.559	+0.291	16	286.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Scott Redding	01:39.585	+0.317	17	280.1	Soft / Medium	1:42.495	+2.37%	9	Medium
11	Andrea Iannone	01:39.614	+0.346	21	283.1	Soft / Medium	1:40.484	+0.36%	10	Medium
12	Mika Kallio	01:39.817	+0.549	21	285.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.639	+0.51%	10	Soft
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.899	+0.631	17	281.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Daniel Pedrosa	01:39.934	+0.666	20	284.5	Soft / Soft	1:40.292	+0.17%	6	Soft
15	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.986	+0.718	19	287.3	Soft / Medium	1:40.727	+0.60%	5	Medium
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.007	+0.739	20	280.5	Soft / Medium	1:41.582	+1.45%	12	Medium
17	Karel Abraham	01:40.032	+0.764	18	281.1	Medium / Soft	1:44.678	+4.55%	5	Medium
18	Alvaro Bautista	01:40.193	+0.925	20	283.6	Soft / Soft	1:41.896	+1.77%	10	Soft
19	Tito Rabat	01:40.366	+1.098	22	280.5	Medium / Hard	1:41.774	+1.65%	13	Medium
20	Bradley Smith	01:40.371	+1.103	19	282.0	Medium / Soft	1:41.381	+1.25%	10	Medium
21	Alex Rins	01:40.537	+1.269	20	282.5	Soft / Hard	1:42.209	+2.08%	6	Hard
22	Thomas Luthi	01:40.585	+1.317	21	284.2	Medium / Medium	1:42.355	+2.23%	16	Soft
23	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.605	+1.337	21	280.8	Soft / Medium	1:41.745	+1.62%	15	Medium
24	Xavier Simeon	01:41.471	+2.203	19	276.1	Soft / Medium	1:43.104	+2.97%	6	Medium
25	Hafizh Syahrin	01:42.074	+2.806	19	278.9	Soft / Medium	1:42.582	+2.45%	11	Medium

FP2 · 04.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Cal Crutchlow	01:38.614	—	20	287.7	Hard / Soft	1:39.529	+0.30%	10	Medium
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:38.642	+0.028	20	287.0	Medium / Soft	1:39.499	+0.27%	11	Medium
3	Johann Zarco	01:38.705	+0.091	20	287.3	Soft / Soft	1:39.787	+0.56%	7	Medium
4	Andrea Iannone	01:38.709	+0.095	21	282.7	Medium / Soft	1:39.500	+0.27%	8	Medium
5	Marc Marquez	01:38.863	+0.249	19	282.7	Medium / Medium	1:39.236	—	10	Medium
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.068	+0.454	20	288.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.614	+1.39%	11	Soft
7	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.076	+0.462	19	284.8	Soft / Soft	1:39.958	+0.73%	6	Soft
8	Jack Miller	01:39.102	+0.488	17	283.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Valentino Rossi	01:39.248	+0.634	19	282.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Maverick Viñales	01:39.514	+0.900	19	282.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.705	+1.48%	5	Hard
11	Pol Espargaro	01:39.541	+0.927	19	286.4	Medium / Soft	1:40.237	+1.01%	5	Hard
12	Karel Abraham	01:39.541	+0.927	19	280.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.377	+1.15%	5	Soft
13	Alex Rins	01:39.575	+0.961	21	284.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.059	+0.83%	5	Medium
14	Mika Kallio	01:39.661	+1.047	19	285.3	Medium / Soft	1:40.228	+1.00%	6	Soft
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.694	+1.080	21	283.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.604	+1.38%	11	Medium
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.723	+1.109	17	288.8	Medium / Soft	1:40.007	+0.78%	12	Soft
17	Tito Rabat	01:39.888	+1.274	24	280.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.384	+1.16%	13	Medium
18	Bradley Smith	01:39.948	+1.334	19	283.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.951	+1.337	18	281.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.454	+1.23%	9	Medium
20	Alvaro Bautista	01:39.969	+1.355	17	283.1	Medium / Soft	1:40.718	+1.49%	6	Medium
21	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.003	+1.389	15	279.7	Hard / Medium	—			—
22	Thomas Luthi	01:40.241	+1.627	17	279.7	Medium / Soft	1:41.665	+2.45%	5	Medium
23	Hafizh Syahrin	01:40.488	+1.874	19	284.7	Soft / Soft	1:41.668	+2.45%	5	Medium
24	Scott Redding	01:40.536	+1.922	15	278.2	Soft / Medium	1:40.620	+1.40%	5	Medium
25	Xavier Simeon	01:40.663	+2.049	17	278.9	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP3 · 05.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:37.702	—	22	288.9	Medium / Soft	1:39.088	+0.01%	12	Medium
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:37.973	+0.271	19	287.6	Medium / Medium	1:39.438	+0.36%	6	Medium
3	Andrea Iannone	01:37.989	+0.287	20	285.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Johann Zarco	01:38.163	+0.461	20	287.7	Medium / Soft	1:39.352	+0.28%	12	Medium
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:38.185	+0.483	19	289.0	Soft / Soft	1:39.126	+0.05%	9	Medium
6	Jack Miller	01:38.224	+0.522	20	285.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Valentino Rossi	01:38.340	+0.638	19	290.9	Medium / Soft	1:39.252	+0.18%	5	Medium
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:38.366	+0.664	21	288.0	Medium / Soft	1:39.426	+0.35%	10	Medium
9	Danilo Petrucci	01:38.462	+0.760	21	286.0	Medium / Soft	1:39.513	+0.44%	5	Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:38.468	+0.766	21	292.7	Medium / Medium	1:39.738	+0.67%	5	Soft
11	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.511	+0.809	19	289.1	Medium / Soft	1:39.886	+0.82%	6	Medium
12	Maverick Viñales	01:38.531	+0.829	23	288.4	Soft / Soft	1:39.883	+0.81%	10	Medium
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.550	+0.848	17	285.4	Medium / Soft	1:39.147	+0.07%	5	Medium
14	Tito Rabat	01:38.714	+1.012	19	288.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Pol Espargaro	01:38.746	+1.044	19	289.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.399	+1.33%	5	Medium
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:38.772	+1.070	22	286.1	Medium / Soft	1:39.605	+0.53%	12	Medium
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.792	+1.090	20	286.3	Medium / Soft	1:39.077	—	5	Soft
18	Scott Redding	01:38.942	+1.240	17	284.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Mika Kallio	01:38.982	+1.280	20	288.7	Soft / Medium	1:39.846	+0.78%	10	Medium
20	Karel Abraham	01:39.066	+1.364	16	285.0	Medium / Soft	1:40.176	+1.11%	4	Medium
21	Bradley Smith	01:39.103	+1.401	19	285.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.625	+1.56%	9	Medium
22	Thomas Luthi	01:39.238	+1.536	20	284.2	Medium / Soft	1:41.284	+2.23%	10	Medium
23	Alvaro Bautista	01:39.488	+1.786	21	285.7	Soft / Soft	1:40.314	+1.25%	12	Soft
24	Xavier Simeon	01:39.644	+1.942	19	280.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
25	Hafizh Syahrin	01:40.234	+2.532	17	285.1	Soft / Medium	—			—

FP4 · 05.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Iannone	01:38.444	—	16	284.5	Medium / Medium	1:39.264	+0.21%	5	Hard
2	Alex Rins	01:38.820	+0.376	15	288.2	Hard / Medium	1:39.254	+0.20%	11	Hard
3	Marc Marquez	01:38.836	+0.392	13	288.5	Hard / Hard	1:39.061	—	4	Hard
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:38.945	+0.501	17	287.9	Hard / Hard	1:39.805	+0.75%	13	Medium
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:38.964	+0.520	15	291.8	Hard / Hard	1:39.287	+0.23%	10	Medium
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.103	+0.659	13	289.0	Medium / Medium	1:39.442	+0.39%	6	Medium
7	Tito Rabat	01:39.139	+0.695	17	284.1	Medium / Medium	1:39.800	+0.75%	12	Soft
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.207	+0.763	16	286.7	Medium / Medium	1:39.378	+0.32%	8	Medium
9	Maverick Viñales	01:39.297	+0.853	15	288.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Pol Espargaro	01:39.360	+0.916	10	288.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
11	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.462	+1.018	12	287.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Jack Miller	01:39.491	+1.047	14	286.3	Hard / Medium	1:39.820	+0.77%	6	Medium
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.499	+1.055	12	285.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
14	Valentino Rossi	01:39.524	+1.080	15	284.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.551	+1.107	15	287.4	Medium / Medium	1:40.083	+1.03%	7	Medium
16	Johann Zarco	01:39.582	+1.138	15	285.0	Medium / Soft	1:39.787	+0.73%	11	Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.675	+1.231	16	283.9	Medium / Medium	1:40.381	+1.33%	11	Medium
18	Mika Kallio	01:39.675	+1.231	14	285.9	Medium / Medium	1:40.267	+1.22%	6	Medium
19	Scott Redding	01:39.686	+1.242	9	282.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Bradley Smith	01:39.689	+1.245	12	283.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Karel Abraham	01:39.755	+1.311	10	282.5	Hard / Medium	—			—
22	Thomas Luthi	01:39.762	+1.318	13	283.3	Medium / Medium	1:40.002	+0.95%	6	Medium
23	Alvaro Bautista	01:39.817	+1.373	15	288.5	Medium / Medium	1:40.166	+1.12%	11	Medium
24	Xavier Simeon	01:40.444	+2.000	11	279.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
25	Hafizh Syahrin	01:40.729	+2.285	9	286.5	Medium / Medium	—			—

Q1 · 05.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.074	—	5	287.8	Medium / Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:38.349	+0.275	8	291.0	Medium / Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.389	+0.315	8	286.0	Hard / Soft
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:38.481	+0.407	8	282.9	Medium / Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.544	+0.470	8	282.5	Hard / Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	01:38.598	+0.524	8	288.3	Medium / Soft
7	Tito Rabat	01:38.610	+0.536	7	287.7	Medium / Soft
8	Thomas Luthi	01:38.752	+0.678	8	282.6	Medium / Soft
9	Mika Kallio	01:38.759	+0.685	8	285.4	Medium / Soft
10	Alvaro Bautista	01:38.838	+0.764	8	285.0	Medium / Soft
11	Bradley Smith	01:38.961	+0.887	8	282.7	Soft / Soft
12	Hafizh Syahrin	01:39.135	+1.061	8	284.8	Medium / Soft
13	Karel Abraham	01:39.146	+1.072	7	281.3	Medium / Soft
14	Xavier Simeon	01:39.708	+1.634	8	281.2	Medium / Soft
15	Scott Redding	01:39.918	+1.844	6	283.3	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 05.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Cal Crutchlow	01:37.653	—	8	291.3	Hard / Soft
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:37.912	+0.259	8	287.8	Medium / Soft
3	Johann Zarco	01:37.956	+0.303	8	286.2	Medium / Medium
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:37.969	+0.316	8	287.7	Soft / Soft
5	Marc Marquez	01:37.977	+0.324	8	289.0	Hard / Soft
6	Alex Rins	01:37.984	+0.331	8	284.5	Hard / Medium
7	Andrea Iannone	01:37.987	+0.334	8	287.3	Medium / Soft
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.029	+0.376	7	288.2	Medium / Soft
9	Danilo Petrucci	01:38.086	+0.433	8	289.1	Medium / Soft
10	Valentino Rossi	01:38.267	+0.614	8	287.4	Medium / Soft
11	Maverick Viñales	01:38.281	+0.628	8	287.0	Medium / Soft
12	Jack Miller	01:38.522	+0.869	8	284.2	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 06.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:38.687	—	12	289.9	Medium / Medium	1:39.648	+0.17%	8	Medium
2	Andrea Iannone	01:38.888	+0.201	12	289.0	Medium / Hard	1:40.073	+0.60%	9	Hard
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:38.939	+0.252	10	288.9	Medium / Medium	1:39.770	+0.29%	5	Medium
4	Jack Miller	01:38.964	+0.277	11	284.8	Medium / Hard	1:42.425	+2.96%	5	Medium
5	Karel Abraham	01:39.041	+0.354	10	286.7	Medium / Medium	1:40.797	+1.32%	4	Medium
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.147	+0.460	12	292.2	Medium / Medium	1:40.464	+0.99%	10	Medium
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.198	+0.511	12	289.2	Medium / Medium	1:39.787	+0.31%	9	Medium
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.236	+0.549	12	286.0	Medium / Medium	1:40.040	+0.56%	10	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	01:39.258	+0.571	12	288.2	Medium / Medium	1:39.480	—	9	Medium
10	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.280	+0.593	9	290.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Alex Rins	01:39.284	+0.597	11	287.9	Medium / Medium	1:39.720	+0.24%	4	Medium
12	Maverick Viñales	01:39.291	+0.604	11	290.1	Medium / Medium	1:39.719	+0.24%	5	Medium
13	Valentino Rossi	01:39.337	+0.650	10	289.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.430	+0.743	10	286.0	Medium / Medium	1:39.696	+0.22%	8	Medium
15	Mika Kallio	01:39.434	+0.747	12	289.4	Soft / Medium	1:40.089	+0.61%	10	Medium
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:39.435	+0.748	12	291.4	Medium / Soft	1:39.935	+0.46%	10	Soft
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.475	+0.788	12	287.8	Medium / Soft	1:39.857	+0.38%	10	Soft
18	Scott Redding	01:39.707	+1.020	11	284.5	Soft / Medium	1:40.586	+1.11%	5	Medium
19	Pol Espargaro	01:39.727	+1.040	12	287.0	Medium / Medium	1:40.081	+0.60%	7	Medium
20	Tito Rabat	01:39.775	+1.088	12	288.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.204	+0.73%	10	Soft
21	Bradley Smith	01:39.807	+1.120	10	283.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
22	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.839	+1.152	12	285.7	Medium / Medium	1:41.090	+1.62%	10	Medium
23	Xavier Simeon	01:40.354	+1.667	10	285.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.436	+1.97%	5	Medium
24	Thomas Luthi	01:40.645	+1.958	12	284.2	Medium / Medium	1:41.404	+1.93%	10	Medium
25	Hafizh Syahrin	01:40.722	+2.035	10	286.8	Medium / Medium	1:41.419	+1.95%	5	Medium

Race · 06.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:39.678	25	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.463	—	23	Medium
2	Johann Zarco	+5.241	20	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.971	+0.51%	23	Medium
3	Andrea Iannone	+8.214	16	25	Medium / Hard	1:40.075	+0.62%	23	Hard
4	Danilo Petrucci	+8.617	13	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.052	+0.59%	23	Medium
5	Valentino Rossi	+8.743	11	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.035	+0.58%	23	Medium
6	Jack Miller	+9.768	10	25	Hard / Hard	1:40.002	+0.54%	23	Hard
7	Maverick Viñales	+13.543	9	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.281	+0.82%	23	Medium
8	Alvaro Bautista	+14.076	8	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.154	+0.70%	23	Medium
9	Franco Morbidelli	+16.822	7	25	Hard / Medium	1:40.276	+0.82%	23	Medium
10	Mika Kallio	+19.405	6	25	missing / missing	1:40.456	+1.00%	23	missing
11	Pol Espargaro	+21.149	5	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.435	+0.98%	23	Medium
12	Takaaki Nakagami	+21.174	4	25	Hard / Medium	1:40.440	+0.98%	23	Medium
13	Bradley Smith	+21.765	3	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.429	+0.97%	23	Medium
14	Tito Rabat	+22.103	2	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.499	+1.04%	23	Medium
15	Scott Redding	+36.755	1	25	Hard / Hard	1:40.919	+1.46%	23	Hard
16	Hafizh Syahrin	+41.861	0	25	missing / missing	1:41.360	+1.91%	23	missing
17	Xavier Simeon	+49.241	0	25	Medium / Medium	1:41.489	+2.04%	23	Medium
18	Karel Abraham	+0.000	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:42.794	+3.35%	21	Medium
Out on lap 1	Aleix Espargaro		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Alex Rins		0	5	Hard / Hard	—			—
Retired	Andrea Dovizioso		0	17	Hard / Medium	1:39.499	+0.04%	15	Medium
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	16	Hard / Medium	1:39.602	+0.14%	13	Medium
Retired	Daniel Pedrosa		0	17	Hard / Medium	1:39.563	+0.10%	15	Medium
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		0	17	Soft / Medium	1:39.522	+0.06%	15	Medium
Retired	Thomas Luthi		0	11	Medium / Medium	1:40.665	+1.21%	9	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Andrea Iannone	1:39.060	—	+0.224	Medium	13
Marc Marquez	1:39.187	+0.127	+0.210	Medium	13
Andrea Dovizioso	1:39.192	+0.132	+0.226	Medium	10
Tito Rabat	1:39.305*	+0.245	+0.229	Medium	4
Cal Crutchlow	1:39.367	+0.307	+0.729	Medium	15
Maverick Viñales	1:39.427	+0.367	+0.292	Medium	11
Daniel Pedrosa	1:39.499	+0.439	+0.089	Medium	13
Aleix Espargaro	1:39.518	+0.458	+0.209	Medium	12
Valentino Rossi	1:39.524	+0.464	+0.508	Medium	13
Danilo Petrucci	1:39.563	+0.503	+0.574	Medium	11
Johann Zarco	1:39.570	+0.510	+0.344	Medium	16
Alex Rins	1:39.591	+0.531	+0.217	Medium	9
Pol Espargaro	1:39.760	+0.700	+0.406	Medium	9
Takaaki Nakagami	1:39.843	+0.783	+0.359	Medium	14
Jorge Lorenzo	1:39.905*	+0.845	+1.158	Medium	3
Jack Miller	1:39.914	+0.854	+0.105	Medium	7
Franco Morbidelli	1:39.935*	+0.875	+0.512	Medium	4
Bradley Smith	1:39.967	+0.907	+0.085	Medium	11
Thomas Luthi	1:39.985	+0.925	+0.237	Medium	11
Mika Kallio	1:40.095	+1.035	+0.462	Medium	8
Alvaro Bautista	1:40.164	+1.104	+0.086	Medium	8
Hafizh Syahrin	1:41.127	+2.067	+0.491	Medium	7

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Andrea Dovizioso	55%	1 ✓
2	Maverick Viñales	48%	2 ✓
3	Aleix Espargaro	37%	3
4	Tito Rabat	17%	7
5	Pol Espargaro	18%	6
6	Takaaki Nakagami	4%	4
7	Franco Morbidelli	8%	5
8	Scott Redding	4%	15
9	Mika Kallio	3%	9
10	Karel Abraham	3%	13
11	Bradley Smith	2%	11
12	Thomas Luthi	0%	8
13	Alvaro Bautista	0%	10
14	Xavier Simeon	0%	14
15	Hafizh Syahrin	0%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	42%	74%	93%	5
2	Cal Crutchlow	22%	53%	85%	1
3	Andrea Iannone	17%	51%	86%	7
4	Johann Zarco	3%	33%	67%	3
5	Jorge Lorenzo	3%	29%	59%	4
6	Jack Miller	6%	21%	58%	12
7	Valentino Rossi	1%	11%	44%	10
8	Daniel Pedrosa	3%	13%	34%	2
9	Danilo Petrucci	1%	7%	28%	9
10	Alex Rins	2%	6%	18%	6
11	Andrea Dovizioso	0%	3%	18%	8
12	Maverick Viñales	0%	1%	12%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Cal Crutchlow	1	22%	48%	62%	70%	28%	—
Daniel Pedrosa	2	23%	55%	73%	87%	11%	—
Johann Zarco	3	17%	50%	71%	89%	8%	2
Jorge Lorenzo	4	13%	40%	63%	86%	10%	—
Marc Marquez	5	8%	30%	52%	80%	14%	1
Alex Rins	6	5%	19%	38%	69%	23%	—
Andrea Iannone	7	4%	15%	31%	64%	27%	3
Andrea Dovizioso	8	3%	14%	31%	73%	12%	—
Danilo Petrucci	9	2%	8%	19%	58%	23%	4
Valentino Rossi	10	2%	7%	17%	65%	9%	5
Maverick Viñales	11	1%	5%	14%	55%	10%	7
Jack Miller	12	1%	3%	8%	39%	27%	6
Aleix Espargaro	13	0%	2%	6%	36%	24%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	14	0%	2%	5%	34%	13%	12
Franco Morbidelli	15	0%	1%	4%	27%	13%	9
Pol Espargaro	16	0%	1%	3%	20%	21%	11
Tito Rabat	17	0%	1%	2%	16%	12%	14
Thomas Luthi	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	13%	—
Mika Kallio	19	0%	0%	0%	6%	34%	10
Alvaro Bautista	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	21%	8
Bradley Smith	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	13%	13
Hafizh Syahrin	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	24%	16
Karel Abraham	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	32%	18
Xavier Simeon	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	13%	17
Scott Redding	25	0%	0%	0%	1%	14%	15

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,430 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%
S2	Fermin Aldeguer +0.39%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.47%	Cal Crutchlow +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.43%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Cal Crutchlow +0.39%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S3	Alex Marquez	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%
S4	Alex Marquez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%	Alex Marquez +0.53%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.01%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.21%	Franco Morbidelli +0.23%
S3	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.34%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S4	Alex Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.63%	Maverick Viñales +0.64%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.17%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Alex Marquez +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.49%
S4	Enea Bastianini	Maverick Viñales +0.07%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%	Jack Miller +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.46%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Brad Binder +0.40%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Jack Miller +0.19%	Aleix Espargaro +0.19%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Jack Miller +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Joan Mir +0.47%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.17%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.22%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Joan Mir +0.24%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.52%	Joan Mir +0.56%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.03%	Stefan Bradl +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.48%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.20%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.07%	Aleix Espargaro +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%
S2	Joan Mir +0.11%	Brad Binder +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.30%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Stefan Bradl +0.20%
S3	Marc Marquez	Danilo Petrucci +0.49%	Maverick Viñales +0.62%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.45%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.54%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.14%	Alex Rins +0.26%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.48%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.65%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.15%	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%

Fastest per sector: 2018

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

100/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

56%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 39%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Andrea Dovizioso	46	—
2	Marc Marquez	45	−1
3	Maverick Viñales	41	−5
4	Johann Zarco	38	−8
5	Cal Crutchlow	38	−8
6	Andrea Iannone	31	−15

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2017 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Daniel Pedrosa

6.136 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P14 to P5.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Jorge Lorenzo (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Alex MarquezDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Jack MillerDucati
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/23	13%
2025	5/23	22%
2024	8/25	32%
2023	6/23	26%
2022	3/25	12%
2021	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet