MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 5 of 18 Aftermath

French Grand Prix 2016

Le Mans France

4.185 m · 27 laps · since 1969
06.05 – 08.05.2016
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Jorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP43:51.29025
2Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+10.65420
3Maverick ViñalesSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+14.17716
4Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+18.71913
5Pol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+24.93111
6Aleix EspargaroSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+32.92110
7Danilo PetrucciDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+38.2519
8Hector BarberaDucatiAvintia Racing+38.5048
9Alvaro BautistaApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+48.5367
10Stefan BradlApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+54.5026
11Eugene LavertyDucatiAspar Team MotoGP+62.6775
12Loris BazDucatiAvintia Racing+67.6584
13Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team+0.0003
DNFAndrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati TeamRetired0
DNFAndrea IannoneDucatiDucati TeamRetired0
DNFBradley SmithYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3Retired0
DNFCal CrutchlowHondaLCR HondaRetired0
DNFJack MillerHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDSRetired0
DNFScott ReddingDucatiOCTO Pramac YakhnichRetired0
DNFTito RabatHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDSRetired0
DNFYonny HernandezDucatiAspar Team MotoGPRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Jorge Lorenzo · 33% ✓Jorge Lorenzo · 33% · from P10.56 / 0.563.7 / 3.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

44
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
28/28
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Lorenzo
10.654 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P19 to P9.

Longest battle: Danilo Petrucci vs Eugene Laverty (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race14:01:30Jump startjump start
Race14:10:05Scott ReddingRetiredretired
Race14:10:54Yonny HernandezCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:11:03Andrea IannoneCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:11:47Cal CrutchlowCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:12:29Tito RabatCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:18:33Andrea IannoneRetiredentered pits and retired
Race14:24:50Marc MarquezCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:24:50Andrea DoviziosoCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:28:55Jack MillerCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:31:42Bradley SmithCrashcrashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
— °C
Air
max — °C
—
Humidity
Dry
Rain
— km/h
Wind
gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 06.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Daniel Pedrosa01:34.042—20313.2
2Jorge Lorenzo01:34.086+0.04420311.9
3Marc Marquez01:34.323+0.28121309.1
4Andrea Dovizioso01:34.343+0.30118314.2
5Valentino Rossi01:34.452+0.41022306.7
6Andrea Iannone01:34.489+0.44719316.0
7Pol Espargaro01:34.597+0.55520308.5
8Maverick Viñales01:34.632+0.59020308.4
9Loris Baz01:34.727+0.68521302.7
10Cal Crutchlow01:34.732+0.69020307.6
11Bradley Smith01:34.757+0.71522308.6
12Aleix Espargaro01:34.799+0.75719302.1
13Hector Barbera01:34.816+0.77419311.5
14Scott Redding01:34.984+0.94219312.6
15Danilo Petrucci01:35.308+1.26619305.7
16Yonny Hernandez01:35.355+1.31317306.3
17Stefan Bradl01:35.381+1.33920299.2
18Jack Miller01:35.465+1.42318301.9
19Alvaro Bautista01:35.798+1.75618306.8
20Tito Rabat01:36.283+2.24121297.6
21Eugene Laverty01:36.472+2.43016306.9
FP2 · 06.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:32.830—19311.5
2Andrea Iannone01:33.169+0.33920314.4
3Marc Marquez01:33.313+0.48321307.4
4Pol Espargaro01:33.406+0.57622309.1
5Andrea Dovizioso01:33.574+0.74421315.7
6Aleix Espargaro01:33.595+0.76518304.0
7Maverick Viñales01:33.613+0.78320307.1
8Daniel Pedrosa01:33.748+0.91820308.8
9Hector Barbera01:33.951+1.12120311.0
10Valentino Rossi01:33.974+1.14419305.9
11Danilo Petrucci01:34.050+1.22020309.8
12Cal Crutchlow01:34.053+1.22314309.1
13Scott Redding01:34.083+1.25317310.3
14Bradley Smith01:34.306+1.47623308.4
15Loris Baz01:34.364+1.53416302.3
16Eugene Laverty01:34.425+1.59519308.7
17Yonny Hernandez01:34.531+1.70118307.0
18Jack Miller01:34.656+1.82618304.7
19Stefan Bradl01:34.742+1.91220300.2
20Tito Rabat01:34.789+1.95922299.8
21Alvaro Bautista01:35.089+2.25919305.5
FP3 · 07.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Iannone01:32.528—20314.8
2Jorge Lorenzo01:32.533+0.00520313.4
3Pol Espargaro01:32.662+0.13420309.4
4Marc Marquez01:32.718+0.19020307.6
5Maverick Viñales01:32.839+0.31120308.2
6Daniel Pedrosa01:32.915+0.38722313.6
7Valentino Rossi01:33.012+0.48421308.3
8Andrea Dovizioso01:33.013+0.48520315.8
9Bradley Smith01:33.182+0.65421308.3
10Cal Crutchlow01:33.242+0.71420306.1
11Danilo Petrucci01:33.413+0.88521307.7
12Scott Redding01:33.522+0.99419310.3
13Hector Barbera01:33.619+1.09119313.4
14Aleix Espargaro01:33.682+1.15411304.4
15Yonny Hernandez01:33.878+1.35017305.4
16Jack Miller01:33.984+1.45619305.0
17Eugene Laverty01:34.067+1.53919309.1
18Loris Baz01:34.146+1.61819301.4
19Stefan Bradl01:34.485+1.95717299.2
20Alvaro Bautista01:34.716+2.18819303.7
21Tito Rabat01:34.898+2.37020298.9
FP4 · 07.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:32.801—13310.9
2Marc Marquez01:33.333+0.53215305.6
3Valentino Rossi01:33.381+0.58015309.2
4Andrea Iannone01:33.493+0.69214316.3
5Andrea Dovizioso01:33.522+0.72115314.0
6Pol Espargaro01:33.528+0.72716310.3
7Daniel Pedrosa01:33.749+0.94815309.7
8Cal Crutchlow01:33.887+1.08615308.4
9Bradley Smith01:33.940+1.13916306.7
10Scott Redding01:33.950+1.14914311.3
11Maverick Viñales01:34.010+1.20915305.0
12Aleix Espargaro01:34.164+1.36311305.5
13Stefan Bradl01:34.189+1.38813302.2
14Eugene Laverty01:34.304+1.50311310.7
15Jack Miller01:34.317+1.51613305.6
16Danilo Petrucci01:34.330+1.52913306.3
17Hector Barbera01:34.478+1.67712311.3
18Tito Rabat01:34.652+1.85115299.5
19Yonny Hernandez01:34.926+2.12513303.9
20Loris Baz01:34.933+2.13212299.5
21Alvaro Bautista01:35.139+2.33815301.9
Q1 · 07.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Aleix Espargaro01:33.139—7306.1
2Danilo Petrucci01:33.199+0.0607307.0
3Hector Barbera01:33.291+0.1527311.5
4Scott Redding01:33.310+0.1717310.0
5Yonny Hernandez01:33.360+0.2217303.8
6Eugene Laverty01:33.452+0.3138310.8
7Stefan Bradl01:34.003+0.8648300.5
8Jack Miller01:34.049+0.9108306.5
9Alvaro Bautista01:34.333+1.1947304.9
10Tito Rabat01:34.348+1.2097299.3
11Loris Baz01:34.455+1.3167302.5
Q2 · 07.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:31.975—7313.3
2Marc Marquez01:32.416+0.4419306.0
3Andrea Iannone01:32.469+0.4946314.0
4Pol Espargaro01:32.502+0.5278312.8
5Andrea Dovizioso01:32.587+0.6128313.3
6Bradley Smith01:32.820+0.8458309.6
7Valentino Rossi01:32.829+0.8548311.0
8Maverick Viñales01:32.933+0.9588307.8
9Cal Crutchlow01:32.963+0.9887308.0
10Danilo Petrucci01:33.102+1.1277309.8
11Daniel Pedrosa01:33.109+1.1347311.3
12Aleix Espargaro01:33.115+1.1407305.8
Warm Up · 08.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Iannone01:33.009—11314.5
2Maverick Viñales01:33.220+0.21112304.7
3Pol Espargaro01:33.346+0.33712306.9
4Jorge Lorenzo01:33.364+0.35512310.7
5Andrea Dovizioso01:33.455+0.44610313.0
6Valentino Rossi01:33.511+0.50212307.0
7Marc Marquez01:33.598+0.58911303.9
8Aleix Espargaro01:33.668+0.65912305.0
9Daniel Pedrosa01:33.878+0.86913309.7
10Cal Crutchlow01:33.894+0.88511304.3
11Hector Barbera01:34.055+1.04611310.5
12Bradley Smith01:34.056+1.04712308.4
13Scott Redding01:34.161+1.15212306.3
14Tito Rabat01:34.298+1.28912301.5
15Yonny Hernandez01:34.556+1.54711306.1
16Jack Miller01:34.581+1.57212303.4
17Alvaro Bautista01:34.626+1.6179299.5
18Danilo Petrucci01:34.714+1.7059304.6
19Loris Baz01:34.944+1.9358302.0
20Eugene Laverty01:35.116+2.10711307.8
21Stefan Bradl01:35.133+2.1249299.1
Race · 08.05
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Jorge Lorenzo43:51.2902528
2Valentino Rossi+10.6542028
3Maverick Viñales+14.1771628
4Daniel Pedrosa+18.7191328
5Pol Espargaro+24.9311128
6Aleix Espargaro+32.9211028
7Danilo Petrucci+38.251928
8Hector Barbera+38.504828
9Alvaro Bautista+48.536728
10Stefan Bradl+54.502628
11Eugene Laverty+62.677528
12Loris Baz+67.658428
13Marc Marquez+0.000327
RetiredAndrea Dovizioso015
RetiredAndrea Iannone011
RetiredBradley Smith019
RetiredCal Crutchlow06
RetiredJack Miller017
RetiredScott Redding05
RetiredTito Rabat07
RetiredYonny Hernandez06

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Jorge Lorenzo133%66%80%91%7%1
Marc Marquez221%51%68%81%16%13
Andrea Iannone313%39%55%70%26%—
Pol Espargaro410%34%54%74%22%5
Andrea Dovizioso58%31%54%83%11%—
Bradley Smith65%25%48%81%10%—
Valentino Rossi74%18%40%82%7%2
Maverick Viñales82%12%30%72%15%3
Cal Crutchlow91%6%18%54%29%—
Danilo Petrucci101%5%15%54%25%7
Daniel Pedrosa111%5%14%59%10%4
Aleix Espargaro121%3%8%45%17%6
Hector Barbera130%2%6%41%14%8
Scott Redding140%1%5%34%13%—
Yonny Hernandez150%1%2%22%29%—
Eugene Laverty160%1%3%22%15%11
Stefan Bradl170%0%1%12%23%10
Jack Miller180%0%1%8%34%—
Alvaro Bautista190%0%1%7%19%9
Tito Rabat200%0%0%5%11%—
Loris Baz210%0%0%4%23%12

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · P. EspargaroS2 · ZarcoS3 · MartinS4 · M. Marquez

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,197 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

33/100
Position index
22%
Pole wins
48%
Front row on the podium
0.69
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

49
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
28/28
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Lorenzo
3.820 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Scott Redding, from P15 to P8.

Longest battle: Danilo Petrucci vs Nicky Hayden (14 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Jorge MartinAprilia
  • 2025Johann ZarcoHonda
  • 2024Jorge MartinDucati
  • 2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
  • 2022Enea BastianiniDucati
  • 2021Jack MillerDucati
  • 2020Danilo PetrucciDucati
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20265/2124%
20256/2227%
20246/2227%
20238/2138%
20227/2429%
20216/2227%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet