Round 6 of 18 Aftermath

Italian Grand Prix 2016

Autodromo Internazionale del Mugello Italy

5.245 m · 23 laps · since 1976

20.05 – 22.05.2016

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	41:36.535	25
2	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+0.019	20
3	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Ducati Team	+4.742	16
4	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+4.910	13
5	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+6.256	11
6	Maverick Viñales	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+8.670	10
7	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+13.340	9
8	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Yakhnich	+14.598	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+18.643	7
10	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Team	+22.298	6
11	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda	+27.936	5
12	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+35.712	4
13	Eugene Laverty	Ducati	Aspar Team MotoGP	+38.032	3
14	Stefan Bradl	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+40.094	2
15	Pol Espargaro	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+59.811	1
16	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Aspar Team MotoGP	+64.397	0
DNF	Alvaro Bautista	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Honda	Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Loris Baz	Ducati	Avintia Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Scott Redding	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Yakhnich	Retired	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Valentino Rossi · 30%	Jorge Lorenzo · 9% · from P5	0.77 / 0.77	2.3 / 2.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

0.019 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P13 to P5.

Longest battle: Jorge Lorenzo vs Marc Marquez (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P5).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Andrea Dovizioso	13	5	+8
Stefan Bradl	20	13	+7
Jorge Lorenzo	5	1	+4
Maverick Viñales	2	11	−9
Andrea Iannone	3	8	−5
Hector Barbera	15	18	−3

Race weather

C25

— °C

Air

max — °C

—

Humidity

Dry

Rain

— km/h

Wind

gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Cal Crutchlow	67%	6
2	Andrea Dovizioso	50%	3
3	Scott Redding	40%	1 ✓
4	Hector Barbera	17%	5
5	Jack Miller	12%	7
6	Aleix Espargaro	3%	2 ✓
7	Pol Espargaro	9%	4
8	Alvaro Bautista	2%	9
9	Stefan Bradl	0%	10
10	Loris Baz	0%	11
11	Eugene Laverty	0%	8

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Andrea Iannone	47%	78%	95%	3
2	Marc Marquez	24%	57%	86%	4
3	Maverick Viñales	17%	53%	91%	2
4	Yonny Hernandez	3%	33%	67%	12
5	Valentino Rossi	2%	35%	69%	1
6	Jorge Lorenzo	5%	19%	57%	5
7	Danilo Petrucci	2%	12%	48%	9
8	Bradley Smith	0%	9%	29%	8
9	Daniel Pedrosa	0%	2%	19%	7
10	Michele Pirro	0%	2%	16%	11
11	Scott Redding	0%	0%	10%	10
12	Aleix Espargaro	0%	2%	14%	6

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Tito Rabat	22	—	—	absent del Grid.pdf (pit lane / no surt)

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Valentino Rossi	1	30%	64%	79%	91%	7%	—
Maverick Viñales	2	20%	51%	69%	83%	14%	6
Andrea Iannone	3	12%	35%	53%	70%	28%	3
Marc Marquez	4	10%	36%	59%	80%	16%	2
Jorge Lorenzo	5	9%	31%	54%	86%	7%	1
Aleix Espargaro	6	6%	22%	43%	76%	16%	9
Daniel Pedrosa	7	5%	19%	40%	81%	10%	4
Bradley Smith	8	3%	14%	31%	75%	11%	7
Danilo Petrucci	9	2%	8%	19%	59%	24%	8
Scott Redding	10	2%	7%	16%	61%	15%	—
Michele Pirro	11	1%	4%	12%	52%	20%	10
Yonny Hernandez	12	0%	3%	7%	39%	30%	16
Andrea Dovizioso	13	0%	3%	6%	40%	12%	5
Pol Espargaro	14	0%	1%	4%	29%	22%	15
Hector Barbera	15	0%	1%	3%	26%	14%	12
Cal Crutchlow	16	0%	1%	2%	16%	30%	11
Jack Miller	17	0%	0%	1%	10%	36%	—
Eugene Laverty	18	0%	0%	1%	10%	14%	13
Alvaro Bautista	19	0%	0%	0%	7%	19%	—
Stefan Bradl	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	23%	14
Loris Baz	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	22%	—
Tito Rabat	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	20%	—

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

The layout

Finish line · 5,245 m per lap

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

76/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

46%

Front row on the podium

0.80

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Lorenzo	90	—
2	Marc Marquez	85	−5
3	Valentino Rossi	78	−12
4	Daniel Pedrosa	53	−37
5	Maverick Viñales	49	−41
6	Pol Espargaro	47	−43

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

5.563 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Eugene Laverty, from P24 to P15.

Longest battle: Alvaro Bautista vs Eugene Laverty (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Winners here

2026Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Danilo PetrucciDucati
2018Jorge LorenzoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/22	14%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	3/24	13%
2023	3/22	14%
2022	4/26	15%
2021	5/22	23%