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Round 4 of 18 Aftermath

Spanish Grand Prix 2016

Circuito de Jerez - Ángel Nieto Spain

4.428 m · 25 laps · since 1984
22.04 – 24.04.2016
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP45:28.83425
2Jorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+2.38620
3Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team+7.08716
4Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+10.35113
5Aleix EspargaroSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+14.14311
6Maverick ViñalesSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+16.77210
7Andrea IannoneDucatiDucati Team+26.2779
8Pol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+30.7508
9Eugene LavertyDucatiAspar Team MotoGP+32.3257
10Hector BarberaDucatiAvintia Racing+32.6246
11Cal CrutchlowHondaLCR Honda+38.4975
12Bradley SmithYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+39.6694
13Loris BazDucatiAvintia Racing+45.2273
14Stefan BradlApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+47.8862
15Yonny HernandezDucatiAspar Team MotoGP+47.9881
16Michele PirroDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+49.4140
17Jack MillerHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS+49.5130
18Tito RabatHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS+53.3340
19Scott ReddingDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+65.5550
DNFAlvaro BautistaApriliaAprilia Racing Team GresiniRetired0
DNFAndrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati TeamRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Valentino Rossi · 33% ✓Valentino Rossi · 33% · from P10.94 / 0.941.9 / 1.8

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

24
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
27/27
Laps led by the winner
Valentino Rossi
2.386 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Eugene Laverty, from P15 to P9.

Longest battle: Stefan Bradl vs Yonny Hernandez (21 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race14:01:30Jump startJump start
Race14:10:59Alvaro BautistaCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:18:17Andrea DoviziosoRetiredEntered pits and retired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

RiderGrid→Pos.Beats the grid
Eugene Laverty15→9+2.8
Daniel Pedrosa7→4+2.7
Andrea Iannone11→7+2.3
Jack Miller19→17−2.6
Loris Baz12→13−3.1
Scott Redding17→19−5.9

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
— °C
Air
max — °C
—
Humidity
Dry
Rain
— km/h
Wind
gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 22.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:40.270—16288.4
2Hector Barbera01:40.527+0.25718290.0
3Valentino Rossi01:40.676+0.40621289.7
4Daniel Pedrosa01:40.823+0.55319289.5
5Marc Marquez01:40.838+0.56820288.6
6Maverick Viñales01:40.925+0.65521286.3
7Aleix Espargaro01:40.995+0.72518283.5
8Yonny Hernandez01:41.208+0.93818286.5
9Andrea Dovizioso01:41.380+1.11016293.7
10Cal Crutchlow01:41.466+1.19619286.3
11Andrea Iannone01:41.648+1.37818293.7
12Pol Espargaro01:41.815+1.54519288.5
13Loris Baz01:41.947+1.67716285.2
14Scott Redding01:42.029+1.75918289.1
15Stefan Bradl01:42.132+1.86218286.3
16Alvaro Bautista01:42.140+1.87017283.0
17Eugene Laverty01:42.210+1.94018288.5
18Bradley Smith01:42.279+2.00920286.7
19Michele Pirro01:42.576+2.30619287.2
20Tito Rabat01:43.050+2.78022281.1
21Jack Miller01:43.130+2.86016282.0
FP2 · 22.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:39.555—18286.5
2Marc Marquez01:39.900+0.34518289.5
3Aleix Espargaro01:40.093+0.53816282.7
4Hector Barbera01:40.229+0.67417291.8
5Valentino Rossi01:40.282+0.72720285.8
6Maverick Viñales01:40.448+0.89322286.3
7Andrea Dovizioso01:40.737+1.18215294.0
8Scott Redding01:40.860+1.30517289.4
9Daniel Pedrosa01:40.925+1.37018289.4
10Eugene Laverty01:40.925+1.37019292.6
11Andrea Iannone01:41.017+1.46219295.0
12Yonny Hernandez01:41.028+1.47317289.2
13Cal Crutchlow01:41.112+1.55718287.7
14Pol Espargaro01:41.167+1.61220289.5
15Stefan Bradl01:41.178+1.62319287.7
16Bradley Smith01:41.287+1.73220287.3
17Loris Baz01:41.320+1.76515285.3
18Alvaro Bautista01:41.573+2.01819285.0
19Michele Pirro01:41.841+2.28618289.8
20Jack Miller01:41.904+2.34915281.4
21Tito Rabat01:42.230+2.67521281.6
FP3 · 23.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Valentino Rossi01:39.244—21289.2
2Marc Marquez01:39.290+0.04620289.6
3Pol Espargaro01:39.435+0.19118289.7
4Jorge Lorenzo01:39.490+0.24619289.2
5Daniel Pedrosa01:39.579+0.33520289.6
6Maverick Viñales01:39.742+0.49822286.6
7Andrea Dovizioso01:39.801+0.55717293.7
8Aleix Espargaro01:39.812+0.56819286.9
9Andrea Iannone01:39.819+0.57521295.7
10Hector Barbera01:39.828+0.58418290.9
11Alvaro Bautista01:39.935+0.69118284.8
12Yonny Hernandez01:39.983+0.73919287.6
13Cal Crutchlow01:40.261+1.01719288.3
14Bradley Smith01:40.289+1.04521289.9
15Eugene Laverty01:40.363+1.11917288.4
16Scott Redding01:40.424+1.18019289.6
17Loris Baz01:40.597+1.35317286.7
18Michele Pirro01:40.916+1.67219290.9
19Stefan Bradl01:41.055+1.81118282.5
20Tito Rabat01:41.442+2.19822284.7
21Jack Miller01:41.530+2.28615283.3
FP4 · 23.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:39.241—14286.7
2Marc Marquez01:39.507+0.26615290.2
3Valentino Rossi01:39.671+0.43015290.0
4Daniel Pedrosa01:40.064+0.82314289.9
5Aleix Espargaro01:40.065+0.82412284.6
6Andrea Dovizioso01:40.212+0.97113293.3
7Pol Espargaro01:40.261+1.02016288.3
8Yonny Hernandez01:40.299+1.05812288.9
9Andrea Iannone01:40.471+1.23014293.1
10Maverick Viñales01:40.512+1.27116286.8
11Hector Barbera01:40.565+1.32413290.9
12Loris Baz01:40.850+1.60913285.4
13Alvaro Bautista01:41.043+1.80212283.0
14Scott Redding01:41.063+1.82211288.6
15Cal Crutchlow01:41.143+1.90213286.7
16Stefan Bradl01:41.144+1.90312283.0
17Eugene Laverty01:41.205+1.96410288.2
18Bradley Smith01:41.394+2.15315287.3
19Tito Rabat01:41.530+2.28913285.4
20Jack Miller01:41.558+2.31713284.3
21Michele Pirro01:41.558+2.31711287.6
Q1 · 23.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Cal Crutchlow01:39.907—7285.4
2Loris Baz01:39.993+0.0867282.7
3Alvaro Bautista01:40.239+0.3328284.8
4Bradley Smith01:40.242+0.3358286.7
5Eugene Laverty01:40.292+0.3858287.1
6Yonny Hernandez01:40.335+0.4287286.9
7Scott Redding01:40.595+0.6887288.2
8Stefan Bradl01:40.835+0.9288281.0
9Jack Miller01:40.968+1.0618284.0
10Michele Pirro01:40.985+1.0787288.5
11Tito Rabat01:41.039+1.1328280.0
Q2 · 23.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Valentino Rossi01:38.736—8286.9
2Jorge Lorenzo01:38.858+0.1228287.7
3Marc Marquez01:38.891+0.1558286.0
4Andrea Dovizioso01:39.580+0.8448292.0
5Maverick Viñales01:39.581+0.8458285.0
6Aleix Espargaro01:39.588+0.8527282.3
7Daniel Pedrosa01:39.678+0.9428286.9
8Pol Espargaro01:39.720+0.9848287.6
9Hector Barbera01:39.742+1.0068290.4
10Cal Crutchlow01:39.881+1.1458286.7
11Andrea Iannone01:40.054+1.3186293.5
12Loris Baz01:40.184+1.4485284.2
Warm Up · 24.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:39.513—11286.4
2Valentino Rossi01:39.717+0.20412287.5
3Jorge Lorenzo01:39.751+0.23811291.6
4Aleix Espargaro01:40.297+0.78411283.8
5Maverick Viñales01:40.421+0.90812286.1
6Daniel Pedrosa01:40.443+0.93011289.0
7Pol Espargaro01:40.551+1.03812288.3
8Andrea Iannone01:40.599+1.08612293.7
9Hector Barbera01:40.668+1.15512289.3
10Bradley Smith01:40.789+1.27612286.7
11Andrea Dovizioso01:40.795+1.28211291.6
12Cal Crutchlow01:40.829+1.31611286.0
13Loris Baz01:40.859+1.34612283.6
14Jack Miller01:40.982+1.46910284.4
15Yonny Hernandez01:41.148+1.63510288.1
16Scott Redding01:41.260+1.74711288.5
17Alvaro Bautista01:41.322+1.80912283.5
18Eugene Laverty01:41.356+1.84312287.8
19Tito Rabat01:41.521+2.00812282.5
20Michele Pirro01:41.580+2.06710290.4
21Stefan Bradl01:41.604+2.09112281.3
Race · 24.04
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Valentino Rossi45:28.8342527
2Jorge Lorenzo+2.3862027
3Marc Marquez+7.0871627
4Daniel Pedrosa+10.3511327
5Aleix Espargaro+14.1431127
6Maverick Viñales+16.7721027
7Andrea Iannone+26.277927
8Pol Espargaro+30.750827
9Eugene Laverty+32.325727
10Hector Barbera+32.624627
11Cal Crutchlow+38.497527
12Bradley Smith+39.669427
13Loris Baz+45.227327
14Stefan Bradl+47.886227
15Yonny Hernandez+47.988127
16Michele Pirro+49.414027
17Jack Miller+49.513027
18Tito Rabat+53.334027
19Scott Redding+65.555027
RetiredAlvaro Bautista05
RetiredAndrea Dovizioso09

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Valentino Rossi133%64%79%90%7%1
Jorge Lorenzo222%55%75%90%7%2
Marc Marquez314%44%64%81%16%3
Andrea Dovizioso410%37%61%84%11%—
Maverick Viñales57%28%50%80%15%6
Aleix Espargaro65%21%42%75%17%5
Daniel Pedrosa73%18%39%81%10%4
Pol Espargaro82%12%27%65%23%8
Hector Barbera92%7%20%66%15%10
Cal Crutchlow101%4%12%49%29%11
Andrea Iannone110%3%9%45%27%7
Loris Baz120%2%7%42%24%13
Alvaro Bautista130%2%5%37%18%—
Bradley Smith140%1%4%36%10%12
Eugene Laverty150%1%3%26%15%9
Yonny Hernandez160%0%1%16%30%15
Scott Redding170%1%1%14%14%19
Stefan Bradl180%0%1%9%23%14
Jack Miller190%0%0%6%35%17
Michele Pirro200%0%0%5%20%16
Tito Rabat210%0%0%4%13%18

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · M. MarquezS2 · AldeguerS3 · M. MarquezS4 · Viñales

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,430 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

100/100
Position index
22%
Pole wins
56%
Front row on the podium
0.84
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 39%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

66
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
27/27
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Lorenzo
5.576 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Maverick Viñales, from P14 to P11.

Longest battle: Danilo Petrucci vs Scott Redding (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Alex MarquezDucati
  • 2025Alex MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2021Jack MillerDucati
  • 2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20263/2313%
20255/2322%
20248/2532%
20236/2326%
20223/2512%
20213/2313%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet