MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 13 of 18 Aftermath

San Marino Grand Prix 2015

Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli San Marino

4.226 m · 27 laps · since 1980
11.09 – 13.09.2015
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team48:23.81925
2Bradley SmithYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+7.28820
3Scott ReddingHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDS+18.79316
4Loris BazYamaha ForwardForward Racing+26.42713
5Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+33.19611
6Danilo PetrucciDucatiPramac Racing+35.08710
7Andrea IannoneDucatiDucati Team+36.5279
8Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+37.4348
9Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+39.5167
10Aleix EspargaroSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+39.6926
11Cal CrutchlowHondaCWM LCR Honda+41.9955
12Jack MillerHondaCWM LCR Honda+46.0754
13Mike Di MeglioDucatiAvintia Racing+48.3813
14Maverick ViñalesSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+52.3252
15Alvaro BautistaApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+53.3481
16Stefan BradlApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+58.8280
17Nicky HaydenHondaAspar MotoGP Team+62.6490
18Hector BarberaDucatiAvintia Racing+64.7680
19Eugene LavertyHondaAspar MotoGP Team+65.6770
20Claudio CortiYamaha ForwardForward Racing+0.0000
21Karel AbrahamHondaAB Motoracing+0.0000
DNFAlex De AngelisARTOcto IodaRacing TeamRetired0
DNFJorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGPRetired0
DNFMichele PirroDucatiDucati TeamRetired0
DNFPol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3Retired0
DNFYonny HernandezDucatiPramac RacingRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Jorge Lorenzo · 29%Marc Marquez · 20% · from P20.84 / 0.842.6 / 2.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

256
Overtakes
6
Lead changes
5 leaders
9/28
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
7.288 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Loris Baz, from P16 to P4.

Longest battle: Jorge Lorenzo vs Marc Marquez (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race14:01:23Michele PirroPit-lane startStarting from pit lane
Race14:01:45Red flagWhite flag displayed
Race14:05:45Jump startJump start
Race14:11:26Scott ReddingCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:18:01Alex De AngelisCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:18:01Yonny HernandezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:26:01Michele PirroRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:38:36Jorge LorenzoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:49:20Pol EspargaroRetiredRetired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
25.3 °C
Air
max 25.5 °C
61%
Humidity
0.3 mm
Rain
11 km/h
Wind
gusts 27 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 11.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:33.328—21291.9
2Jorge Lorenzo01:33.422+0.09418290.1
3Michele Pirro01:33.797+0.46913290.4
4Daniel Pedrosa01:33.930+0.60219293.6
5Andrea Dovizioso01:34.015+0.68716296.6
6Valentino Rossi01:34.086+0.75821288.0
7Pol Espargaro01:34.094+0.76624291.6
8Bradley Smith01:34.266+0.93823291.0
9Cal Crutchlow01:34.282+0.95419290.3
10Andrea Iannone01:34.319+0.99120295.4
11Scott Redding01:34.482+1.15419285.8
12Hector Barbera01:34.590+1.26219288.7
13Danilo Petrucci01:34.748+1.42019292.4
14Maverick Viñales01:34.869+1.54117285.7
15Eugene Laverty01:34.885+1.55721282.1
16Yonny Hernandez01:34.931+1.60318289.3
17Alvaro Bautista01:34.988+1.66020283.1
18Loris Baz01:35.048+1.72019279.9
19Aleix Espargaro01:35.063+1.73516280.5
20Mike Di Meglio01:35.226+1.89817286.3
21Jack Miller01:35.421+2.09320281.6
22Nicky Hayden01:35.427+2.09919277.4
23Karel Abraham01:35.628+2.30018283.2
24Stefan Bradl01:35.992+2.66418282.4
25Alex De Angelis01:36.239+2.91119280.4
26Claudio Corti01:38.358+5.03010276.8
FP2 · 11.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:32.871—19287.8
2Marc Marquez01:32.924+0.05320289.9
3Daniel Pedrosa01:33.258+0.38720290.6
4Andrea Dovizioso01:33.291+0.42020292.4
5Valentino Rossi01:33.469+0.59823285.3
6Pol Espargaro01:33.552+0.68122289.1
7Danilo Petrucci01:33.553+0.68219289.6
8Bradley Smith01:33.595+0.72423288.0
9Michele Pirro01:33.674+0.80315288.8
10Cal Crutchlow01:33.785+0.91418286.2
11Scott Redding01:33.808+0.93720282.4
12Aleix Espargaro01:33.840+0.96920278.8
13Andrea Iannone01:34.132+1.26118295.0
14Maverick Viñales01:34.215+1.34419282.3
15Eugene Laverty01:34.345+1.47420278.8
16Loris Baz01:34.500+1.62917276.2
17Yonny Hernandez01:34.595+1.72420286.6
18Alvaro Bautista01:34.727+1.85621280.4
19Jack Miller01:34.856+1.98519280.2
20Hector Barbera01:35.011+2.14016286.2
21Stefan Bradl01:35.036+2.16520280.3
22Nicky Hayden01:35.394+2.52318275.0
23Alex De Angelis01:35.735+2.86416275.7
24Mike Di Meglio01:35.853+2.98216281.5
25Claudio Corti01:36.326+3.45518278.6
26Karel Abraham01:36.530+3.65916276.1
FP3 · 12.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:32.192—19291.1
2Marc Marquez01:32.421+0.22920290.7
3Valentino Rossi01:32.793+0.60122290.4
4Andrea Dovizioso01:32.802+0.61020297.1
5Daniel Pedrosa01:32.855+0.66321293.0
6Michele Pirro01:32.930+0.73817293.2
7Bradley Smith01:32.960+0.76822291.1
8Andrea Iannone01:32.960+0.76819296.2
9Pol Espargaro01:33.012+0.82020292.9
10Danilo Petrucci01:33.013+0.82118292.3
11Cal Crutchlow01:33.160+0.96818289.4
12Aleix Espargaro01:33.195+1.00317282.4
13Maverick Viñales01:33.245+1.05319287.8
14Scott Redding01:33.335+1.14321285.6
15Yonny Hernandez01:34.170+1.97819293.0
16Hector Barbera01:34.194+2.00218289.3
17Loris Baz01:34.265+2.07317279.5
18Alvaro Bautista01:34.337+2.14522284.6
19Nicky Hayden01:34.430+2.23819277.4
20Stefan Bradl01:34.434+2.24220284.9
21Jack Miller01:34.497+2.30519284.4
22Mike Di Meglio01:34.548+2.35615286.3
23Eugene Laverty01:35.441+3.24914280.7
24Alex De Angelis01:35.791+3.59919280.4
25Karel Abraham01:36.016+3.82414279.5
26Claudio Corti01:36.587+4.39516280.9
FP4 · 12.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:33.063—14289.3
2Marc Marquez01:33.073+0.01016288.8
3Daniel Pedrosa01:33.192+0.12914287.8
4Andrea Dovizioso01:33.290+0.22715292.0
5Valentino Rossi01:33.419+0.35616285.4
6Pol Espargaro01:33.439+0.37614289.2
7Scott Redding01:33.597+0.53415284.2
8Andrea Iannone01:33.626+0.56315294.1
9Bradley Smith01:33.842+0.77917288.8
10Aleix Espargaro01:33.912+0.84911277.9
11Michele Pirro01:33.934+0.8719288.9
12Danilo Petrucci01:34.039+0.97615287.3
13Cal Crutchlow01:34.110+1.04713286.3
14Maverick Viñales01:34.290+1.22712282.9
15Yonny Hernandez01:34.382+1.31911289.8
16Hector Barbera01:34.922+1.85914286.5
17Alvaro Bautista01:34.953+1.89014280.7
18Nicky Hayden01:34.979+1.91612276.3
19Stefan Bradl01:35.049+1.98613281.2
20Loris Baz01:35.062+1.99913277.2
21Jack Miller01:35.111+2.04812281.9
22Eugene Laverty01:35.274+2.2119276.3
23Mike Di Meglio01:35.347+2.28413280.5
24Alex De Angelis01:35.760+2.69712276.7
25Karel Abraham01:36.478+3.4159277.4
26Claudio Corti01:36.969+3.90612276.4
Q1 · 12.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Aleix Espargaro01:32.961—7279.4
2Cal Crutchlow01:33.146+0.1857286.9
3Scott Redding01:33.340+0.3798283.6
4Maverick Viñales01:33.439+0.4787282.7
5Yonny Hernandez01:33.710+0.7497289.5
6Loris Baz01:34.093+1.1327279.4
7Jack Miller01:34.137+1.1767282.2
8Hector Barbera01:34.296+1.3358288.3
9Stefan Bradl01:34.333+1.3726280.8
10Alvaro Bautista01:34.368+1.4078281.5
11Eugene Laverty01:34.468+1.5078277.7
12Mike Di Meglio01:34.722+1.7618282.5
13Nicky Hayden01:34.732+1.7715275.5
14Claudio Corti01:35.385+2.4247276.6
15Karel Abraham01:35.406+2.4458279.1
16Alex De Angelis01:35.684+2.7235274.8
Q2 · 12.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:32.146—8288.0
2Marc Marquez01:32.252+0.1068286.3
3Valentino Rossi01:32.358+0.2128285.7
4Daniel Pedrosa01:32.434+0.2889288.8
5Michele Pirro01:32.736+0.5907289.5
6Bradley Smith01:32.801+0.6559288.4
7Andrea Iannone01:32.821+0.6757294.0
8Andrea Dovizioso01:32.934+0.7887294.1
9Danilo Petrucci01:33.169+1.0237289.0
10Aleix Espargaro01:33.187+1.0418280.9
11Cal Crutchlow01:33.220+1.0747286.7
12Pol Espargaro01:33.222+1.0762287.7
Warm Up · 13.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:32.504—12289.2
2Jorge Lorenzo01:33.118+0.61412289.5
3Andrea Iannone01:33.153+0.64911296.2
4Daniel Pedrosa01:33.296+0.79212289.7
5Pol Espargaro01:33.526+1.02211288.5
6Valentino Rossi01:33.553+1.04912286.6
7Bradley Smith01:33.575+1.07113288.8
8Andrea Dovizioso01:33.724+1.22010295.5
9Scott Redding01:33.771+1.26713283.9
10Michele Pirro01:33.803+1.29910289.3
11Cal Crutchlow01:33.918+1.41412287.9
12Aleix Espargaro01:34.048+1.54411279.5
13Maverick Viñales01:34.115+1.6119284.6
14Yonny Hernandez01:34.411+1.90712288.9
15Hector Barbera01:34.524+2.02011288.2
16Mike Di Meglio01:34.719+2.21512286.5
17Stefan Bradl01:34.736+2.23212281.8
18Loris Baz01:34.748+2.2449277.4
19Danilo Petrucci01:34.792+2.28811289.7
20Nicky Hayden01:34.895+2.39113277.9
21Jack Miller01:35.325+2.82110281.9
22Alvaro Bautista01:35.401+2.89711281.0
23Eugene Laverty01:35.508+3.00412278.4
24Alex De Angelis01:35.978+3.47411277.4
25Karel Abraham01:36.393+3.88910280.0
26Claudio Corti01:37.078+4.57412277.8
Race · 13.09
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Marc Marquez48:23.8192528
2Bradley Smith+7.2882028
3Scott Redding+18.7931628
4Loris Baz+26.4271328
5Valentino Rossi+33.1961128
6Danilo Petrucci+35.0871028
7Andrea Iannone+36.527928
8Andrea Dovizioso+37.434828
9Daniel Pedrosa+39.516728
10Aleix Espargaro+39.692628
11Cal Crutchlow+41.995528
12Jack Miller+46.075428
13Mike Di Meglio+48.381328
14Maverick Viñales+52.325228
15Alvaro Bautista+53.348128
16Stefan Bradl+58.828028
17Nicky Hayden+62.649028
18Hector Barbera+64.768028
19Eugene Laverty+65.677028
20Claudio Corti+0.000027
21Karel Abraham+0.000027
RetiredAlex De Angelis09
RetiredJorge Lorenzo020
RetiredMichele Pirro09
RetiredPol Espargaro026
RetiredYonny Hernandez09

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a
Pred.RiderP(through)Actual in Q1
1Cal Crutchlow70%2 ✓
2Aleix Espargaro49%1 ✓
3Maverick Viñales38%4
4Scott Redding15%3
5Yonny Hernandez15%5
6Hector Barbera4%8
7Loris Baz9%6
8Alvaro Bautista0%10
9Eugene Laverty0%11
10Nicky Hayden0%13
11Stefan Bradl0%9
12Jack Miller0%7
13Mike Di Meglio0%12
14Karel Abraham0%15
15Alex De Angelis0%16
16Claudio Corti—14

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Jorge Lorenzo129%62%79%92%6%—
Marc Marquez220%50%69%82%15%1
Valentino Rossi316%49%70%89%7%5
Daniel Pedrosa411%37%61%86%10%9
Michele Pirro57%25%47%75%20%—
Bradley Smith67%23%45%81%11%2
Andrea Iannone73%15%32%69%22%7
Andrea Dovizioso82%13%31%76%10%8
Danilo Petrucci92%8%19%58%24%6
Aleix Espargaro101%6%15%57%18%10
Cal Crutchlow111%4%9%44%30%11
Pol Espargaro120%3%6%41%23%—
Scott Redding130%2%6%38%14%3
Maverick Viñales140%1%5%34%12%14
Yonny Hernandez150%1%2%21%29%—
Loris Baz160%1%2%19%13%4
Jack Miller170%0%1%10%40%12
Hector Barbera180%1%1%10%16%18
Stefan Bradl190%0%0%6%25%16
Alvaro Bautista200%0%0%4%20%15
Eugene Laverty210%0%0%4%17%19
Mike Di Meglio220%0%0%2%20%13
Nicky Hayden230%0%0%2%14%17
Claudio Corti240%0%0%1%26%20
Karel Abraham250%0%0%1%33%21
Alex De Angelis260%0%0%0%17%—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · QuartararoS2 · AcostaS3 · BezzecchiS4 · M. Marquez

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,218 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

29/100
Position index
22%
Pole wins
48%
Front row on the podium
0.73
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2014 edition

36
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
25/28
Laps led by the winner
Valentino Rossi
1.578 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Karel Abraham, from P17 to P11.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Daniel Pedrosa (25 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2024Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2023Jorge MartinDucati
  • 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20267/2133%
20257/2330%
20243/2214%
20234/2317%
20224/2516%
20213/2413%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet