Round 12 of 18 Aftermath

British Grand Prix 2015

5.900 m · 20 laps · since 1977

28.08 – 30.08.2015

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	46:15.617	25
2	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+3.010	20
3	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+4.117	16
4	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+5.726	13
5	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+11.132	11
6	Scott Redding	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+25.467	10
7	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+26.717	9
8	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Ducati Team	+29.393	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+38.815	7
10	Alvaro Bautista	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+41.712	6
11	Maverick Viñales	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+44.776	5
12	Nicky Hayden	Honda	Aspar MotoGP Team	+52.489	4
13	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+71.211	3
14	Mike Di Meglio	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+75.292	2
15	Alex De Angelis	ART	Octo IodaRacing Team	+77.863	1
16	Loris Baz	Yamaha Forward	Forward Racing	+79.310	0
17	Eugene Laverty	Honda	Aspar MotoGP Team	+79.735	0
18	Claudio Corti	Yamaha Forward	Forward Racing	+118.086	0
19	Karel Abraham	Honda	AB Motoracing	+0.000	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	CWM LCR Honda	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Honda	CWM LCR Honda	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Out on lap 1	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 29%	Valentino Rossi · 11% · from P4	0.76 / 0.76	2.7 / 2.8

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

19/20

Laps led by the winner

Valentino Rossi

3.010 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Danilo Petrucci, from P18 to P2.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Danilo Petrucci (14 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	13:02:00		Red flag	Red flag
Race	13:26:52	Yonny Hernandez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:28:15		Jump start	jump start
Race	13:32:31	Jack Miller	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:32:31	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:36:02	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:39:48	Cal Crutchlow	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	13:54:37	Marc Marquez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:57:14	Stefan Bradl	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:59:58	Pol Espargaro	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:09:48	Karel Abraham	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Danilo Petrucci	18	9	+9
Jack Miller	16	8	+8
Nicky Hayden	21	15	+6
Maverick Viñales	13	22	−9
Scott Redding	7	14	−7
Eugene Laverty	19	24	−5

Race stopped with a red flag: this compares with Saturday’s grid, but the restart used the order from the first part. Places gained are approximate.

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Danilo Petrucci	18→2	+11.8
Andrea Dovizioso	12→3	+6.9
Alvaro Bautista	20→10	+5.0
Karel Abraham	24→19	−1.4
Eugene Laverty	19→17	−2.6
Loris Baz	15→16	−4.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

Race weather

C25

17.3 °C

Air

max 17.3 °C

79%

Humidity

0.1 mm

Rain

9 km/h

Wind

gusts 22 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Maverick Viñales	72%	3
2	Aleix Espargaro	48%	2 ✓
3	Danilo Petrucci	39%	8
4	Yonny Hernandez	13%	1 ✓
5	Eugene Laverty	15%	9
6	Hector Barbera	4%	7
7	Loris Baz	9%	5
8	Alvaro Bautista	0%	10
9	Jack Miller	0%	6
10	Nicky Hayden	0%	11
11	Mike Di Meglio	0%	12
12	Stefan Bradl	0%	4
13	Claudio Corti	0%	13
14	Alex De Angelis	0%	15
15	Karel Abraham	0%	14

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jorge Lorenzo	46%	78%	96%	2
2	Marc Marquez	22%	52%	85%	1
3	Andrea Dovizioso	20%	54%	91%	12
4	Daniel Pedrosa	2%	30%	65%	3
5	Scott Redding	2%	33%	70%	7
6	Bradley Smith	7%	20%	57%	6
7	Valentino Rossi	2%	15%	50%	4
8	Andrea Iannone	0%	11%	26%	9
9	Cal Crutchlow	0%	2%	20%	8
10	Pol Espargaro	0%	2%	15%	5
11	Aleix Espargaro	0%	0%	11%	10
12	Yonny Hernandez	0%	3%	18%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	29%	59%	74%	84%	14%	—
Jorge Lorenzo	2	23%	58%	77%	92%	6%	4
Daniel Pedrosa	3	16%	49%	69%	87%	10%	5
Valentino Rossi	4	11%	39%	63%	88%	7%	1
Pol Espargaro	5	6%	24%	45%	72%	20%	—
Bradley Smith	6	5%	22%	45%	79%	12%	7
Scott Redding	7	4%	16%	35%	74%	15%	6
Cal Crutchlow	8	2%	10%	24%	58%	29%	—
Andrea Iannone	9	1%	7%	18%	60%	22%	8
Aleix Espargaro	10	1%	6%	15%	59%	19%	9
Yonny Hernandez	11	0%	3%	9%	44%	28%	—
Andrea Dovizioso	12	1%	3%	8%	51%	10%	3
Maverick Viñales	13	0%	2%	6%	42%	13%	11
Stefan Bradl	14	0%	1%	3%	29%	24%	—
Loris Baz	15	0%	1%	3%	26%	13%	16
Jack Miller	16	0%	1%	2%	14%	36%	—
Hector Barbera	17	0%	0%	1%	12%	16%	13
Danilo Petrucci	18	0%	0%	1%	9%	24%	2
Eugene Laverty	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	18%	17
Alvaro Bautista	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	20%	10
Nicky Hayden	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	14%	12
Mike Di Meglio	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	20%	14
Claudio Corti	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	26%	18
Karel Abraham	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	33%	19
Alex De Angelis	25	0%	0%	0%	1%	18%	15

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,905 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.50%	Pedro Acosta +0.52%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.32%	Alex Marquez +0.40%
S3	Ai Ogura +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.36%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

48/100

Position index

Pole wins

38%

Front row on the podium

0.72

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 33% of the time (between 6% and 79%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2019–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Valentino Rossi	211	—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	211	—
3	Marc Marquez	159	−52
4	Andrea Iannone	142	−69
5	Bradley Smith	106	−105
6	Andrea Dovizioso	104	−107

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2014 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

5/20

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.732 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Michele Pirro, from P13 to P10.

Longest battle: Jorge Lorenzo vs Marc Marquez (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Winners here

2026Raul FernandezAprilia
2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2024Enea BastianiniDucati
2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Alex RinsSuzuki
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	7/23	30%
2025	3/22	14%
2024	4/22	18%
2023	5/22	23%
2022	2/24	8%
2021	2/21	10%