MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 14 of 18 Aftermath

Aragon Grand Prix 2015

MotorLand Aragón Spain

5.078 m · 23 laps · since 2010
25.09 – 27.09.2015
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Jorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP41:44.93325
2Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+2.68320
3Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+2.77316
4Andrea IannoneDucatiDucati Team+7.85813
5Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+24.32211
6Aleix EspargaroSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+24.82910
7Cal CrutchlowHondaCWM LCR Honda+25.3679
8Bradley SmithYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+25.5038
9Pol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+26.4527
10Yonny HernandezDucatiPramac Racing+43.8896
11Maverick ViñalesSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+44.2555
12Scott ReddingHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDS+48.1764
13Alvaro BautistaApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+49.7553
14Eugene LavertyHondaAspar MotoGP Team+50.2712
15Nicky HaydenHondaAspar MotoGP Team+50.3641
16Hector BarberaDucatiAvintia Racing+50.7220
17Loris BazYamaha ForwardForward Racing+51.9970
18Stefan BradlApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+53.4060
19Jack MillerHondaCWM LCR Honda+56.8590
20Mike Di MeglioDucatiAvintia Racing+59.6070
21Toni EliasYamaha ForwardForward Racing+75.2370
DNFAlex De AngelisARTOcto IodaRacing TeamRetired0
DNFDanilo PetrucciDucatiPramac RacingRetired0
DNFKarel AbrahamHondaAB MotoracingRetired0
DNFMarc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Marc Marquez · 31%Jorge Lorenzo · 24% · from P20.90 / 0.902.1 / 2.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

41
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
23/23
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Lorenzo
2.683 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P21 to P13.

Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Valentino Rossi (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race14:03:09Jump startJump start
Race14:04:02Marc MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:11:17Alex De AngelisCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:18:58Danilo PetrucciCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:21:51Karel AbrahamRetiredEntered pits and retired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
22.6 °C
Air
max 22.9 °C
44%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
5 km/h
Wind
gusts 29 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 25.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:48.249—15331.5
2Marc Marquez01:48.739+0.49019338.0
3Valentino Rossi01:48.824+0.57518331.1
4Daniel Pedrosa01:49.050+0.80117340.1
5Scott Redding01:49.354+1.10518330.2
6Andrea Dovizioso01:49.628+1.37916339.8
7Bradley Smith01:49.790+1.54118335.9
8Pol Espargaro01:49.868+1.61919331.2
9Cal Crutchlow01:50.008+1.75917332.0
10Andrea Iannone01:50.131+1.88218342.4
11Eugene Laverty01:50.158+1.90918329.9
12Stefan Bradl01:50.160+1.91118326.2
13Loris Baz01:50.275+2.02618322.7
14Alvaro Bautista01:50.285+2.03617327.7
15Jack Miller01:50.287+2.03818324.3
16Aleix Espargaro01:50.310+2.06116326.0
17Nicky Hayden01:50.483+2.23416320.7
18Danilo Petrucci01:50.534+2.28516330.1
19Maverick Viñales01:50.715+2.46618329.4
20Hector Barbera01:50.728+2.47913334.1
21Yonny Hernandez01:50.729+2.48016330.4
22Karel Abraham01:51.496+3.24714324.3
23Mike Di Meglio01:52.142+3.89310328.6
24Alex De Angelis01:52.202+3.95316315.0
25Toni Elias01:52.950+4.70119326.9
FP2 · 25.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:47.517—15333.1
2Valentino Rossi01:48.200+0.68319332.6
3Bradley Smith01:48.318+0.80120334.0
4Daniel Pedrosa01:48.358+0.84117337.8
5Marc Marquez01:48.401+0.88419337.2
6Pol Espargaro01:48.445+0.92818340.3
7Aleix Espargaro01:48.524+1.00715329.8
8Andrea Dovizioso01:48.575+1.05816340.2
9Andrea Iannone01:48.615+1.09818341.9
10Danilo Petrucci01:48.829+1.31219336.6
11Yonny Hernandez01:48.955+1.43817336.6
12Scott Redding01:49.007+1.49018331.0
13Cal Crutchlow01:49.064+1.54717336.3
14Hector Barbera01:49.225+1.70816336.6
15Alvaro Bautista01:49.576+2.05919328.7
16Maverick Viñales01:49.680+2.16315329.9
17Loris Baz01:49.700+2.18314323.9
18Eugene Laverty01:49.769+2.25218330.8
19Stefan Bradl01:49.980+2.46318327.0
20Mike Di Meglio01:50.039+2.52214334.5
21Jack Miller01:50.157+2.64017326.7
22Nicky Hayden01:50.462+2.94517324.9
23Alex De Angelis01:50.719+3.20215321.1
24Toni Elias01:51.162+3.64518333.1
25Karel Abraham01:51.638+4.12114323.1
FP3 · 26.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:47.380—17336.5
2Daniel Pedrosa01:47.663+0.28320342.7
3Valentino Rossi01:47.692+0.31219333.7
4Jorge Lorenzo01:47.775+0.39516333.7
5Andrea Iannone01:47.786+0.40620345.8
6Cal Crutchlow01:48.257+0.87717338.9
7Pol Espargaro01:48.449+1.06919337.0
8Maverick Viñales01:48.449+1.06916336.8
9Aleix Espargaro01:48.589+1.20917328.4
10Scott Redding01:48.615+1.23517331.8
11Bradley Smith01:48.839+1.45914338.6
12Andrea Dovizioso01:48.900+1.52017341.7
13Yonny Hernandez01:49.112+1.73217338.6
14Nicky Hayden01:49.237+1.85717326.6
15Danilo Petrucci01:49.238+1.85815337.6
16Mike Di Meglio01:49.464+2.08415334.9
17Alvaro Bautista01:49.581+2.20118330.8
18Jack Miller01:49.726+2.34617332.0
19Hector Barbera01:49.890+2.51017337.7
20Eugene Laverty01:50.181+2.80117330.8
21Alex De Angelis01:50.485+3.10517323.7
22Karel Abraham01:51.292+3.91214323.8
23Stefan Bradl01:51.312+3.93212325.1
24Toni Elias01:51.561+4.18118328.8
RetiredLoris Baz—00.0
FP4 · 26.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Daniel Pedrosa01:48.058—14337.8
2Jorge Lorenzo01:48.074+0.01613333.1
3Marc Marquez01:48.148+0.09012335.6
4Andrea Iannone01:48.429+0.37113343.5
5Andrea Dovizioso01:48.629+0.57112342.4
6Valentino Rossi01:48.673+0.61514332.3
7Aleix Espargaro01:48.697+0.63912326.8
8Danilo Petrucci01:48.784+0.72611333.3
9Maverick Viñales01:48.989+0.93113329.6
10Cal Crutchlow01:48.991+0.93313334.1
11Bradley Smith01:49.173+1.11513334.0
12Scott Redding01:49.176+1.11814333.8
13Yonny Hernandez01:49.235+1.17710336.9
14Pol Espargaro01:49.300+1.24214334.6
15Loris Baz01:49.920+1.86211324.3
16Nicky Hayden01:50.006+1.94812327.4
17Eugene Laverty01:50.100+2.04212333.1
18Hector Barbera01:50.138+2.08014337.5
19Alvaro Bautista01:50.147+2.08913329.3
20Mike Di Meglio01:50.154+2.09613333.6
21Stefan Bradl01:50.215+2.15711325.5
22Jack Miller01:50.647+2.58911328.1
23Alex De Angelis01:51.012+2.95411322.3
24Toni Elias01:51.385+3.32710330.2
25Karel Abraham01:52.332+4.2745324.8
Q1 · 26.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Danilo Petrucci01:47.853—7332.9
2Yonny Hernandez01:48.228+0.3757335.2
3Andrea Dovizioso01:48.294+0.4416340.3
4Scott Redding01:48.674+0.8218328.5
5Eugene Laverty01:49.035+1.1828326.6
6Nicky Hayden01:49.102+1.2498324.5
7Stefan Bradl01:49.109+1.2568324.9
8Mike Di Meglio01:49.253+1.4008334.0
9Hector Barbera01:49.426+1.5737335.6
10Jack Miller01:49.436+1.5837328.3
11Alvaro Bautista01:49.437+1.5847327.4
12Loris Baz01:49.496+1.6437320.7
13Karel Abraham01:49.761+1.9088324.0
14Alex De Angelis01:50.134+2.2817322.7
15Toni Elias01:50.755+2.9026326.5
Q2 · 26.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:46.635—7338.1
2Jorge Lorenzo01:46.743+0.1088335.8
3Andrea Iannone01:47.178+0.5436343.8
4Pol Espargaro01:47.334+0.6997332.7
5Daniel Pedrosa01:47.357+0.7228340.4
6Valentino Rossi01:47.492+0.8577332.5
7Aleix Espargaro01:47.573+0.9387327.8
8Cal Crutchlow01:47.574+0.9396336.4
9Danilo Petrucci01:47.775+1.1406336.6
10Bradley Smith01:47.830+1.1958337.2
11Yonny Hernandez01:48.556+1.9216337.2
12Maverick Viñales01:48.648+2.0137329.3
Warm Up · 27.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:48.181—11334.9
2Jorge Lorenzo01:48.461+0.28010333.9
3Pol Espargaro01:48.597+0.41611332.1
4Valentino Rossi01:48.734+0.55310329.9
5Daniel Pedrosa01:48.866+0.68511336.3
6Bradley Smith01:49.015+0.83411334.1
7Andrea Dovizioso01:49.269+1.08810339.5
8Cal Crutchlow01:49.287+1.10610328.1
9Maverick Viñales01:49.533+1.35211328.6
10Andrea Iannone01:49.616+1.4359341.4
11Yonny Hernandez01:49.758+1.57711336.2
12Danilo Petrucci01:50.005+1.82410330.4
13Aleix Espargaro01:50.006+1.82511329.9
14Scott Redding01:50.216+2.03510328.6
15Nicky Hayden01:50.364+2.18311324.2
16Jack Miller01:50.405+2.2249325.3
17Mike Di Meglio01:50.437+2.2569333.3
18Alvaro Bautista01:50.591+2.41011327.0
19Stefan Bradl01:50.669+2.48810325.2
20Alex De Angelis01:50.698+2.51710322.7
21Eugene Laverty01:50.803+2.62210326.4
22Hector Barbera01:50.804+2.62311335.4
23Loris Baz01:50.995+2.8147319.2
24Toni Elias01:51.342+3.1619329.9
25Karel Abraham01:51.384+3.2039323.1
Race · 27.09
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Jorge Lorenzo41:44.9332523
2Daniel Pedrosa+2.6832023
3Valentino Rossi+2.7731623
4Andrea Iannone+7.8581323
5Andrea Dovizioso+24.3221123
6Aleix Espargaro+24.8291023
7Cal Crutchlow+25.367923
8Bradley Smith+25.503823
9Pol Espargaro+26.452723
10Yonny Hernandez+43.889623
11Maverick Viñales+44.255523
12Scott Redding+48.176423
13Alvaro Bautista+49.755323
14Eugene Laverty+50.271223
15Nicky Hayden+50.364123
16Hector Barbera+50.722023
17Loris Baz+51.997023
18Stefan Bradl+53.406023
19Jack Miller+56.859023
20Mike Di Meglio+59.607023
21Toni Elias+75.237023
RetiredAlex De Angelis05
RetiredDanilo Petrucci09
RetiredKarel Abraham011
RetiredMarc Marquez01

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a
Pred.RiderP(through)Actual in Q1
1Andrea Dovizioso71%3
2Scott Redding50%4
3Danilo Petrucci38%1 ✓
4Yonny Hernandez15%2 ✓
5Hector Barbera15%9
6Nicky Hayden4%6
7Mike Di Meglio8%8
8Alvaro Bautista0%11
9Loris Baz0%12
10Jack Miller0%10
11Eugene Laverty0%5
12Stefan Bradl0%7
13Alex De Angelis0%14
14Toni Elias0%15
15Karel Abraham0%13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marc Marquez131%60%74%83%15%—
Jorge Lorenzo224%58%77%90%7%1
Andrea Iannone313%41%59%74%21%4
Pol Espargaro49%32%51%70%25%9
Daniel Pedrosa57%30%55%83%9%2
Valentino Rossi66%26%50%84%7%3
Aleix Espargaro73%17%36%71%18%6
Cal Crutchlow82%11%24%57%30%7
Danilo Petrucci92%7%19%60%23%—
Bradley Smith101%6%17%66%11%8
Yonny Hernandez111%3%11%44%30%10
Maverick Viñales121%3%8%50%11%11
Andrea Dovizioso130%2%7%42%10%5
Scott Redding140%1%5%34%14%12
Eugene Laverty150%1%4%27%17%14
Nicky Hayden160%1%2%20%14%15
Stefan Bradl170%0%1%13%25%18
Mike Di Meglio180%0%1%10%19%20
Hector Barbera190%0%0%8%16%16
Jack Miller200%0%0%4%38%19
Alvaro Bautista210%0%0%4%20%13
Loris Baz220%0%0%2%12%17
Karel Abraham230%0%0%1%32%—
Alex De Angelis240%0%0%1%20%—
Toni Elias250%0%0%1%19%21

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · M. MarquezS2 · M. MarquezS3 · M. MarquezS4 · M. Marquez

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,068 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

71/100
Position index
50%
Pole wins
50%
Front row on the podium
0.78
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2014 edition

82
Overtakes
8
Lead changes
4 leaders
7/23
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Lorenzo
10.295 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Danilo Petrucci, from P20 to P11.

Longest battle: Jorge Lorenzo vs Marc Marquez (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2024Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2022Enea BastianiniDucati
  • 2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2020Alex RinsSuzuki
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20264/2218%
20253/2114%
20245/2223%
20223/2313%
20212/229%
20201/215%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet