MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 6 of 18 Aftermath

Italian Grand Prix 2014

Autodromo Internazionale del Mugello Italy

5.245 m · 23 laps · since 1976
30.05 – 01.06.2014
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team41:38.25425
2Jorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+0.12120
3Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+2.68816
4Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+14.04613
5Pol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+15.60311
6Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+17.04210
7Andrea IannoneDucatiPramac Racing+17.1299
8Alvaro BautistaHondaGO&FUN Honda Gresini+27.4078
9Aleix EspargaroForward YamahaNGM Forward Racing+41.8867
10Yonny HernandezDucatiEnergy T.I. Pramac Racing+45.2126
11Michele PirroDucatiDucati Team+45.4335
12Karel AbrahamHondaCardion AB Motoracing+45.8314
13Scott ReddingHondaGO&FUN Honda Gresini+45.8393
14Hiroshi AoyamaHondaDrive M7 Aspar+46.8342
15Colin EdwardsForward YamahaNGM Forward Racing+69.5541
16Michael LavertyPBMPaul Bird Motorsport+77.7890
17Broc ParkesPBMPaul Bird Motorsport+95.0310
18Mike Di MeglioAvintiaAvintia Racing+97.5010
DNFBradley SmithYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3Retired0
DNFCal CrutchlowDucatiDucati TeamRetired0
DNFHector BarberaAvintiaAvintia RacingRetired0
DNFMichel FabrizioARTIodaRacing ProjectRetired0
DNFStefan BradlHondaLCR Honda MotoGPRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

36
Overtakes
3
Lead changes
2 leaders
2/23
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
0.121 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Nicky Hayden, from P24 to P10.

Longest battle: Jorge Lorenzo vs Marc Marquez (21 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race14:02:54Jump startJump start
Race14:06:49Bradley SmithCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:08:07Cal CrutchlowCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:08:20Stefan BradlCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:15:23Hector BarberaRetiredRetired
Race14:15:43Michel FabrizioRetiredEntered pits and retired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
21.0 °C
Air
max 21.2 °C
41%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
9 km/h
Wind
gusts 28 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 30.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:48.004—19340.2
2Valentino Rossi01:48.386+0.38217340.9
3Andrea Iannone01:48.434+0.43021347.2
4Andrea Dovizioso01:48.518+0.51417343.8
5Jorge Lorenzo01:48.665+0.66117339.6
6Aleix Espargaro01:48.743+0.73914338.2
7Stefan Bradl01:48.925+0.92120339.4
8Cal Crutchlow01:48.980+0.97619343.2
9Alvaro Bautista01:49.030+1.02613341.5
10Bradley Smith01:49.030+1.02620341.3
11Daniel Pedrosa01:49.203+1.19918338.7
12Pol Espargaro01:49.308+1.30418340.1
13Colin Edwards01:49.818+1.81418330.3
14Michele Pirro01:50.030+2.02614343.7
15Hiroshi Aoyama01:50.143+2.13920326.9
16Yonny Hernandez01:50.189+2.18515338.2
17Karel Abraham01:50.327+2.32316328.2
18Scott Redding01:50.440+2.43617326.3
19Hector Barbera01:51.396+3.39215320.3
20Mike Di Meglio01:52.164+4.16015327.1
21Michael Laverty01:52.748+4.74418326.1
22Broc Parkes01:53.775+5.77116317.3
23Nicky Hayden01:55.369+7.3656322.8
RetiredDanilo Petrucci—00.0
FP2 · 30.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Michele Pirro02:05.435—3319.7
2Nicky Hayden02:07.067+1.6325307.0
3Alvaro Bautista02:09.153+3.7184312.2
4Hiroshi Aoyama02:12.275+6.8403306.0
RetiredAleix Espargaro—00.0
RetiredAndrea Dovizioso—00.0
RetiredAndrea Iannone—00.0
RetiredBradley Smith—00.0
RetiredBroc Parkes—00.0
RetiredCal Crutchlow—00.0
RetiredColin Edwards—00.0
RetiredDaniel Pedrosa—00.0
RetiredDanilo Petrucci—00.0
RetiredHector Barbera—00.0
RetiredJorge Lorenzo—00.0
RetiredKarel Abraham—00.0
RetiredMarc Marquez—00.0
RetiredMichael Laverty—00.0
RetiredMike Di Meglio—00.0
RetiredPol Espargaro—00.0
RetiredScott Redding—00.0
RetiredStefan Bradl—00.0
RetiredValentino Rossi—00.0
RetiredYonny Hernandez—00.0
FP3 · 31.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Daniel Pedrosa01:47.754—18340.0
2Marc Marquez01:48.015+0.26119339.5
3Andrea Dovizioso01:48.017+0.26315343.7
4Jorge Lorenzo01:48.028+0.27419337.6
5Bradley Smith01:48.142+0.38818341.2
6Valentino Rossi01:48.155+0.40120339.4
7Cal Crutchlow01:48.275+0.52117345.4
8Pol Espargaro01:48.373+0.61918340.6
9Stefan Bradl01:48.416+0.66218342.2
10Andrea Iannone01:48.435+0.68118349.6
11Aleix Espargaro01:48.496+0.74215329.4
12Alvaro Bautista01:48.639+0.88518343.5
13Michele Pirro01:48.993+1.23917343.5
14Scott Redding01:49.299+1.54515325.0
15Yonny Hernandez01:49.639+1.88517337.2
16Karel Abraham01:49.711+1.95716327.5
17Colin Edwards01:49.928+2.17417331.5
18Hiroshi Aoyama01:50.430+2.67618327.3
19Hector Barbera01:50.757+3.00316323.5
20Mike Di Meglio01:51.542+3.78814324.2
21Michael Laverty01:51.674+3.92017320.6
22Broc Parkes01:52.422+4.66814311.5
23Michel Fabrizio01:54.667+6.91316316.9
RetiredNicky Hayden—00.0
FP4 · 31.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Daniel Pedrosa01:47.940—13340.4
2Marc Marquez01:48.005+0.06513341.5
3Jorge Lorenzo01:48.106+0.16614339.8
4Valentino Rossi01:48.126+0.18614337.9
5Andrea Iannone01:48.151+0.21114346.0
6Andrea Dovizioso01:48.313+0.37313342.3
7Aleix Espargaro01:48.366+0.4266334.2
8Pol Espargaro01:48.571+0.63115342.2
9Stefan Bradl01:48.699+0.75915339.5
10Cal Crutchlow01:48.760+0.82014343.6
11Alvaro Bautista01:48.830+0.89012338.1
12Bradley Smith01:48.957+1.01711336.5
13Karel Abraham01:49.043+1.10310331.5
14Yonny Hernandez01:49.530+1.59012339.4
15Hiroshi Aoyama01:49.712+1.77212326.3
16Scott Redding01:49.760+1.8208322.9
17Michele Pirro01:49.762+1.82211341.1
18Colin Edwards01:50.428+2.48812326.4
19Hector Barbera01:50.644+2.70412320.0
20Mike Di Meglio01:51.134+3.1947324.6
21Michael Laverty01:51.234+3.2949322.8
22Broc Parkes01:51.933+3.99311318.6
23Michel Fabrizio01:54.208+6.26813313.2
RetiredNicky Hayden—00.0
Q1 · 31.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Alvaro Bautista01:48.312—7333.9
2Aleix Espargaro01:48.580+0.2684327.0
3Yonny Hernandez01:48.722+0.4106338.6
4Scott Redding01:48.754+0.4427319.0
5Michele Pirro01:48.794+0.4828338.6
6Karel Abraham01:48.894+0.5827325.6
7Hiroshi Aoyama01:49.505+1.1937325.0
8Colin Edwards01:49.780+1.4687325.5
9Hector Barbera01:49.932+1.6207317.7
10Michael Laverty01:50.505+2.1938320.9
11Mike Di Meglio01:50.515+2.2037320.5
12Broc Parkes01:50.875+2.5637316.6
13Michel Fabrizio01:53.116+4.8047314.9
RetiredNicky Hayden—00.0
Q2 · 31.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:47.270—8337.0
2Andrea Iannone01:47.450+0.1809341.9
3Jorge Lorenzo01:47.521+0.2519332.8
4Daniel Pedrosa01:47.584+0.3148340.0
5Pol Espargaro01:47.612+0.3424336.5
6Cal Crutchlow01:47.659+0.3898340.1
7Bradley Smith01:47.681+0.4118337.0
8Andrea Dovizioso01:47.754+0.4847339.4
9Stefan Bradl01:47.765+0.4958342.9
10Valentino Rossi01:47.791+0.5217336.0
11Alvaro Bautista01:48.132+0.8628339.6
12Aleix Espargaro01:48.218+0.9487337.3
Warm Up · 01.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:47.740—10340.3
2Jorge Lorenzo01:47.863+0.12311339.0
3Andrea Iannone01:47.881+0.14110346.2
4Daniel Pedrosa01:48.069+0.32911341.0
5Andrea Dovizioso01:48.169+0.42911344.6
6Pol Espargaro01:48.355+0.61511342.6
7Bradley Smith01:48.440+0.70011342.0
8Valentino Rossi01:48.457+0.7178338.3
9Cal Crutchlow01:48.458+0.71811344.1
10Stefan Bradl01:48.586+0.8466338.9
11Alvaro Bautista01:49.091+1.35111339.4
12Aleix Espargaro01:49.114+1.3747336.8
13Michele Pirro01:49.225+1.48510343.1
14Scott Redding01:49.302+1.56210325.5
15Yonny Hernandez01:49.645+1.90511343.2
16Karel Abraham01:49.682+1.9429328.4
17Colin Edwards01:49.688+1.94810330.4
18Hiroshi Aoyama01:49.748+2.00811330.1
19Hector Barbera01:50.498+2.75810324.6
20Mike Di Meglio01:50.709+2.9699328.1
21Broc Parkes01:50.940+3.20010325.3
22Michael Laverty01:51.144+3.40411324.7
23Michel Fabrizio01:53.202+5.4629320.0
Race · 01.06
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Marc Marquez41:38.2542523
2Jorge Lorenzo+0.1212023
3Valentino Rossi+2.6881623
4Daniel Pedrosa+14.0461323
5Pol Espargaro+15.6031123
6Andrea Dovizioso+17.0421023
7Andrea Iannone+17.129923
8Alvaro Bautista+27.407823
9Aleix Espargaro+41.886723
10Yonny Hernandez+45.212623
11Michele Pirro+45.433523
12Karel Abraham+45.831423
13Scott Redding+45.839323
14Hiroshi Aoyama+46.834223
15Colin Edwards+69.554123
16Michael Laverty+77.789023
17Broc Parkes+95.031023
18Mike Di Meglio+97.501023
RetiredBradley Smith02
RetiredCal Crutchlow03
RetiredHector Barbera07
RetiredMichel Fabrizio06
RetiredStefan Bradl03

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

SessionRiderQualifiedStartsΔReason
RaceNicky Hayden24——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · BagnaiaS2 · ViñalesS3 · QuartararoS4 · Martin

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,245 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

76/100
Position index
50%
Pole wins
46%
Front row on the podium
0.80
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2013 edition

28
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
23/23
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Lorenzo
5.400 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hector Barbera, from P15 to P10.

Longest battle: Hector Barbera vs Randy De Puniet (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Marco BezzecchiAprilia
  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2019Danilo PetrucciDucati
  • 2018Jorge LorenzoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20263/2214%
20254/2218%
20243/2413%
20233/2214%
20224/2615%
20215/2223%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet