Round 18 of 18 Aftermath

Valencia Grand Prix 2012

4.005 m · 27 laps · since 1999

09.11 – 11.11.2012

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	48:23.819	25
2	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+37.661	20
3	Casey Stoner	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+60.633	16
4	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+62.811	13
5	Michele Pirro	FTR	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+86.608	11
6	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+90.423	10
7	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Cardion AB Motoracing	+91.789	9
8	Danilo Petrucci	Ioda-Suter	Came IodaRacing Project	+0.000	8
9	James Ellison	ART	Paul Bird Motorsport	+0.000	7
10	Valentino Rossi	Ducati	Ducati Team	+0.000	6
11	Aleix Espargaro	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+0.000	5
12	Randy De Puniet	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+0.000	4
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	BQR	Avintia Blusens	+0.000	3
14	Colin Edwards	Suter	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	+0.000	2
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Claudio Corti	Inmotec	Avintia Blusens	Retired	0
DNF	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Ivan Silva	BQR	Avintia Blusens	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Roberto Rolfo	ART	Speed Master	Retired	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

140

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

17/30

Laps led by the winner

Daniel Pedrosa

37.661 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Katsuyuki Nakasuga, from P16 to P2.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Katsuyuki Nakasuga (6 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Karel Abraham (started P13).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
James Ellison	20	7	+13
Karel Abraham	13	1	+12
Roberto Rolfo	19	9	+10
Daniel Pedrosa	1	20	−19
Cal Crutchlow	4	21	−17
Nicky Hayden	7	22	−15

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Katsuyuki Nakasuga	16→2	+10.5
Michele Pirro	15→5	+6.8
James Ellison	20→9	+6.0
Randy De Puniet	12→12	−2.1
Aleix Espargaro	10→11	−2.4
Colin Edwards	14→14	−2.8

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

13.2 °C

Air

max 13.2 °C

68%

Humidity

1.0 mm

Rain

14 km/h

Wind

gusts 37 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 09.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Nicky Hayden	01:44.485	—	18	306.4
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:45.490	+1.005	17	306.6
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:45.945	+1.460	14	304.6
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:46.021	+1.536	19	308.6
5	Alvaro Bautista	01:46.413	+1.928	18	303.7
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.574	+2.089	19	293.3
7	Valentino Rossi	01:46.678	+2.193	17	306.5
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:46.839	+2.354	17	299.6
9	Randy De Puniet	01:47.039	+2.554	17	290.1
10	Casey Stoner	01:47.527	+3.042	14	295.4
11	Stefan Bradl	01:47.825	+3.340	19	297.3
12	Karel Abraham	01:47.862	+3.377	19	292.6
13	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:48.110	+3.625	17	298.1
14	Michele Pirro	01:48.244	+3.759	17	285.1
15	Ivan Silva	01:48.918	+4.433	18	286.3
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:49.143	+4.658	14	290.2
17	Hector Barbera	01:49.444	+4.959	14	302.6
18	Colin Edwards	01:49.748	+5.263	9	290.6
19	James Ellison	01:50.735	+6.250	14	287.2
—	Claudio Corti	01:51.996	+7.511	12	282.7
—	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:54.245	+9.760	17	265.9
—	Roberto Rolfo	01:51.826	+7.341	13	288.1

FP2 · 09.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Randy De Puniet	01:36.965	—	9	297.8
2	Michele Pirro	01:37.084	+0.119	9	295.0
3	Nicky Hayden	01:37.389	+0.424	5	306.8
4	Karel Abraham	01:37.782	+0.817	7	306.4
5	Valentino Rossi	01:38.115	+1.150	10	312.2
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:38.300	+1.335	16	294.1
7	Ivan Silva	01:38.304	+1.339	23	292.3
8	Roberto Rolfo	01:38.905	+1.940	16	293.9
9	James Ellison	01:39.837	+2.872	14	298.4
10	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:40.497	+3.532	18	299.9
11	Claudio Corti	01:42.993	+6.028	11	289.6
—	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.426	+8.461	3	287.5
—	Alvaro Bautista	01:44.564	+7.599	5	304.1
Retired	Andrea Dovizioso		—	0	0.0
—	Cal Crutchlow	01:44.384	+7.419	6	296.9
Retired	Casey Stoner		—	0	0.0
—	Colin Edwards	02:06.873	+29.908	2	241.1
Retired	Daniel Pedrosa		—	0	0.0
—	Hector Barbera	01:45.678	+8.713	3	292.4
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		—	0	0.0
—	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:45.180	+8.215	4	288.7
Retired	Stefan Bradl		—	0	0.0

FP3 · 10.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:33.033	—	13	322.3
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.641	+0.608	11	318.3
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:33.672	+0.639	5	315.5
4	Stefan Bradl	01:33.751	+0.718	13	317.7
5	Nicky Hayden	01:34.263	+1.230	14	312.8
6	Jorge Lorenzo	01:34.296	+1.263	12	314.3
7	Alvaro Bautista	01:34.764	+1.731	9	301.3
8	Randy De Puniet	01:34.915	+1.882	7	303.4
9	Casey Stoner	01:34.991	+1.958	4	290.1
10	Michele Pirro	01:35.371	+2.338	7	300.5
11	Valentino Rossi	01:35.824	+2.791	9	314.5
12	Karel Abraham	01:35.919	+2.886	14	299.8
13	Roberto Rolfo	01:36.149	+3.116	9	299.3
14	Hector Barbera	01:36.192	+3.159	13	313.0
15	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:36.267	+3.234	10	308.6
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:36.517	+3.484	12	297.5
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:36.538	+3.505	7	300.6
18	Ivan Silva	01:36.753	+3.720	20	297.9
19	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:37.701	+4.668	13	305.1
20	Colin Edwards	01:37.969	+4.936	12	300.0
21	Claudio Corti	01:38.663	+5.630	8	295.3
—	James Ellison	01:46.122	+13.089	11	284.0

Qualifying · 10.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.844	—	26	326.4
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:31.195	+0.351	26	321.4
3	Casey Stoner	01:31.428	+0.584	22	322.9
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.512	+0.668	28	321.4
5	Stefan Bradl	01:31.757	+0.913	27	324.8
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.795	+0.951	27	321.6
7	Nicky Hayden	01:32.503	+1.659	29	320.7
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:32.585	+1.741	26	323.5
9	Hector Barbera	01:32.605	+1.761	27	327.0
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.834	+1.990	25	305.7
11	Valentino Rossi	01:32.877	+2.033	28	319.6
12	Randy De Puniet	01:33.346	+2.502	27	306.4
13	Karel Abraham	01:33.442	+2.598	30	320.3
14	Colin Edwards	01:33.453	+2.609	26	309.3
15	Michele Pirro	01:33.971	+3.127	25	303.8
16	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:33.979	+3.135	26	315.9
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.980	+3.136	24	300.0
18	Ivan Silva	01:34.407	+3.563	27	300.9
19	Roberto Rolfo	01:34.866	+4.022	27	303.9
20	James Ellison	01:34.918	+4.074	25	304.6
21	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:35.363	+4.519	30	309.1
22	Claudio Corti	01:36.531	+5.687	19	300.0

Warm Up · 11.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:44.197	—	11	308.0
2	Stefan Bradl	01:44.319	+0.122	11	300.5
3	Valentino Rossi	01:44.554	+0.357	11	307.7
4	Nicky Hayden	01:44.556	+0.359	11	296.4
5	Alvaro Bautista	01:44.558	+0.361	11	298.3
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:44.702	+0.505	11	295.9
7	Jorge Lorenzo	01:45.042	+0.845	10	305.9
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.467	+1.270	11	292.3
9	Karel Abraham	01:45.534	+1.337	11	297.3
10	Daniel Pedrosa	01:45.685	+1.488	9	296.2
11	Casey Stoner	01:46.082	+1.885	8	292.9
12	James Ellison	01:46.136	+1.939	11	289.2
13	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:46.437	+2.240	11	286.1
14	Randy De Puniet	01:46.540	+2.343	10	284.8
15	Ivan Silva	01:46.593	+2.396	10	287.7
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:47.505	+3.308	11	290.7
17	Colin Edwards	01:47.848	+3.651	11	287.8
18	Michele Pirro	01:48.220	+4.023	9	278.2
19	Hector Barbera	01:48.739	+4.542	8	282.1
20	Claudio Corti	01:48.816	+4.619	8	286.4
21	Roberto Rolfo	01:50.342	+6.145	10	283.1
22	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:52.250	+8.053	9	279.2

Race · 11.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Daniel Pedrosa	48:23.819	25	30
2	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	+37.661	20	30
3	Casey Stoner	+60.633	16	30
4	Alvaro Bautista	+62.811	13	30
5	Michele Pirro	+86.608	11	30
6	Andrea Dovizioso	+90.423	10	30
7	Karel Abraham	+91.789	9	30
8	Danilo Petrucci	+0.000	8	29
9	James Ellison	+0.000	7	29
10	Valentino Rossi	+0.000	6	29
11	Aleix Espargaro	+0.000	5	29
12	Randy De Puniet	+0.000	4	28
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	+0.000	3	28
14	Colin Edwards	+0.000	2	27
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	22
Retired	Claudio Corti		0	17
Retired	Hector Barbera		0	16
Retired	Ivan Silva		0	2
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		0	13
Retired	Nicky Hayden		0	2
Retired	Roberto Rolfo		0	6
Retired	Stefan Bradl		0	9

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,007 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.41%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Augusto Fernandez +0.33%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Alex Marquez +0.47%
S2	Raul Fernandez +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.31%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.34%	Raul Fernandez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.35%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%
S3	Augusto Fernandez +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Brad Binder +0.39%
S4	Brad Binder +0.05%	Johann Zarco +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.02%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%	Brad Binder +0.25%
S2	Jack Miller +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%
S3	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.11%	Johann Zarco +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Brad Binder +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S2	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.16%	Joan Mir +0.28%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Johann Zarco +0.22%	Brad Binder +0.29%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.37%	Franco Morbidelli +0.40%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Pol Espargaro +0.35%	Miguel Oliveira +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.39%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Alex Rins +0.01%	Andrea Iannone +0.42%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.36%	Pol Espargaro +0.51%	Michele Pirro +0.58%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.52%	Aleix Espargaro +0.83%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.85%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.19%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.37%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

91/100

Position index

43%

Pole wins

71%

Front row on the podium

0.83

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Lorenzo	350	—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	307	−43
3	Casey Stoner	238	−112
4	Andrea Dovizioso	208	−142
5	Alvaro Bautista	165	−185
6	Valentino Rossi	157	−193

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2011 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

28/30

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

0.015 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Katsuyuki Nakasuga, from P15 to P6.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Karel Abraham (29 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 24% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	7/24	29%
2023	7/21	33%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	2/20	10%
2020	3/21	14%
2019	7/22	32%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet