Round 17 of 18 Aftermath

Australian Grand Prix 2012

4.445 m · 27 laps · since 1989

26.10 – 28.10.2012

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Casey Stoner	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:01.324	25
2	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+9.223	20
3	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+14.570	16
4	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+23.303	13
5	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+23.432	11
6	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+23.467	10
7	Valentino Rossi	Ducati	Ducati Team	+37.113	9
8	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+38.387	8
9	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Cardion AB Motoracing	+52.613	7
10	Aleix Espargaro	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+60.299	6
11	Randy De Puniet	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+60.342	5
12	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+81.951	4
13	Danilo Petrucci	Ioda-Suter	Came IodaRacing Project	+87.857	3
14	Michele Pirro	FTR	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+0.000	2
15	Ivan Silva	BQR	Avintia Blusens	+0.000	1
DNF	Colin Edwards	Suter	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	James Ellison	ART	Paul Bird Motorsport	Retired	0
DNF	Roberto Rolfo	ART	Speed Master	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

26/27

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

9.223 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Karel Abraham, from P11 to P9.

Longest battle: Nicky Hayden vs Valentino Rossi (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Daniel Pedrosa (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Daniel Pedrosa	3	1	+2
Nicky Hayden	10	8	+2
Roberto Rolfo	18	17	+1
Randy De Puniet	9	13	−4
Colin Edwards	16	18	−2
Casey Stoner	1	2	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Andrea Dovizioso	6→4	+2.0
Casey Stoner	1→1	+1.8
Cal Crutchlow	4→3	+1.8
Hector Barbera	13→12	−1.5
Michele Pirro	14→14	−2.8
Randy De Puniet	9→11	−3.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

13.9 °C

Air

max 14.3 °C

61%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

11 km/h

Wind

gusts 28 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 26.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:30.374	—	16	332.1
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:31.279	+0.905	17	332.4
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:31.533	+1.159	18	334.4
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.968	+1.594	17	335.7
5	Alvaro Bautista	01:32.039	+1.665	18	332.8
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.199	+1.825	17	336.0
7	Nicky Hayden	01:32.312	+1.938	16	332.5
8	Stefan Bradl	01:32.356	+1.982	17	338.0
9	Valentino Rossi	01:32.655	+2.281	18	335.0
10	Randy De Puniet	01:33.266	+2.892	17	317.3
11	Karel Abraham	01:33.376	+3.002	19	339.4
12	Hector Barbera	01:33.671	+3.297	18	335.0
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.727	+3.353	16	313.5
14	Roberto Rolfo	01:35.170	+4.796	18	305.1
15	Michele Pirro	01:35.200	+4.826	15	315.8
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:35.411	+5.037	19	315.0
17	James Ellison	01:35.427	+5.053	17	316.7
18	Colin Edwards	01:35.715	+5.341	12	314.9
—	Ivan Silva	01:37.352	+6.978	21	313.1
—	Kris Mclaren	01:40.657	+10.283	13	305.2

FP2 · 26.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:29.999	—	17	336.8
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.884	+0.885	21	335.6
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:31.005	+1.006	19	335.3
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.367	+1.368	22	334.9
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.458	+1.459	22	334.5
6	Alvaro Bautista	01:31.616	+1.617	19	333.3
7	Stefan Bradl	01:31.702	+1.703	22	337.1
8	Valentino Rossi	01:32.030	+2.031	21	334.9
9	Nicky Hayden	01:32.654	+2.655	20	332.7
10	Randy De Puniet	01:32.674	+2.675	22	322.4
11	Hector Barbera	01:32.706	+2.707	21	338.0
12	Karel Abraham	01:32.744	+2.745	21	338.0
13	Colin Edwards	01:33.835	+3.836	18	320.9
14	Michele Pirro	01:34.002	+4.003	19	316.1
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.479	+4.480	15	317.7
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:34.531	+4.532	21	315.3
17	James Ellison	01:34.561	+4.562	17	314.5
18	Ivan Silva	01:34.746	+4.747	20	313.9
19	Roberto Rolfo	01:34.771	+4.772	20	312.1
—	Kris Mclaren	01:38.203	+8.204	16	307.9

FP3 · 27.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:29.665	—	19	334.1
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:30.684	+1.019	21	332.4
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.981	+1.316	22	334.4
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.197	+1.532	21	335.0
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.438	+1.773	19	332.9
6	Alvaro Bautista	01:31.635	+1.970	20	333.5
7	Randy De Puniet	01:31.651	+1.986	21	320.2
8	Stefan Bradl	01:31.821	+2.156	21	337.7
9	Valentino Rossi	01:32.058	+2.393	22	335.3
10	Karel Abraham	01:32.081	+2.416	21	338.0
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.141	+2.476	17	318.9
12	Nicky Hayden	01:32.366	+2.701	20	332.2
13	Hector Barbera	01:33.185	+3.520	20	330.8
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.586	+3.921	22	310.2
15	Roberto Rolfo	01:33.911	+4.246	22	313.5
16	James Ellison	01:34.108	+4.443	18	316.6
17	Michele Pirro	01:34.183	+4.518	18	313.2
18	Colin Edwards	01:34.303	+4.638	19	316.9
19	Ivan Silva	01:34.407	+4.742	22	313.6
—	Kris Mclaren	01:36.251	+6.586	16	306.0

Qualifying · 27.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:29.623	—	22	335.6
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:30.140	+0.517	20	330.6
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.575	+0.952	25	335.7
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.763	+1.140	26	332.7
5	Stefan Bradl	01:30.798	+1.175	28	337.1
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.200	+1.577	26	334.7
7	Alvaro Bautista	01:31.490	+1.867	24	334.9
8	Valentino Rossi	01:31.661	+2.038	27	337.4
9	Randy De Puniet	01:31.667	+2.044	23	323.6
10	Nicky Hayden	01:31.681	+2.058	25	334.4
11	Karel Abraham	01:31.910	+2.287	26	339.6
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.990	+2.367	22	319.8
13	Hector Barbera	01:32.231	+2.608	26	334.1
14	Michele Pirro	01:33.050	+3.427	21	316.8
15	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.069	+3.446	25	315.4
16	Colin Edwards	01:33.450	+3.827	21	321.7
17	James Ellison	01:33.489	+3.866	25	317.4
18	Roberto Rolfo	01:33.577	+3.954	24	314.0
19	Ivan Silva	01:34.156	+4.533	26	313.5
—	Kris Mclaren	01:36.324	+6.701	16	311.6

Warm Up · 28.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:29.888	—	10	337.6
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:30.335	+0.447	14	332.2
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.629	+0.741	11	333.9
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.195	+1.307	12	333.3
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.339	+1.451	11	333.3
6	Stefan Bradl	01:31.406	+1.518	13	335.0
7	Alvaro Bautista	01:31.861	+1.973	13	333.5
8	Karel Abraham	01:31.896	+2.008	10	336.8
9	Nicky Hayden	01:31.954	+2.066	12	329.9
10	Randy De Puniet	01:31.984	+2.096	11	320.6
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.228	+2.340	10	322.2
12	Valentino Rossi	01:32.287	+2.399	10	333.5
13	Hector Barbera	01:32.372	+2.484	12	335.0
14	Michele Pirro	01:33.864	+3.976	9	316.3
15	James Ellison	01:33.922	+4.034	11	318.5
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.959	+4.071	9	313.2
17	Ivan Silva	01:34.209	+4.321	12	313.6
18	Roberto Rolfo	01:34.394	+4.506	12	309.8
19	Colin Edwards	01:34.520	+4.632	9	316.8
—	Kris Mclaren	01:36.701	+6.813	9	310.0

Race · 28.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Casey Stoner	41:01.324	25	27
2	Jorge Lorenzo	+9.223	20	27
3	Cal Crutchlow	+14.570	16	27
4	Andrea Dovizioso	+23.303	13	27
5	Alvaro Bautista	+23.432	11	27
6	Stefan Bradl	+23.467	10	27
7	Valentino Rossi	+37.113	9	27
8	Nicky Hayden	+38.387	8	27
9	Karel Abraham	+52.613	7	27
10	Aleix Espargaro	+60.299	6	27
11	Randy De Puniet	+60.342	5	27
12	Hector Barbera	+81.951	4	27
13	Danilo Petrucci	+87.857	3	27
14	Michele Pirro	+0.000	2	26
15	Ivan Silva	+0.000	1	26
Retired	Colin Edwards		0	6
Retired	Daniel Pedrosa		0	1
Retired	James Ellison		0	5
Retired	Roberto Rolfo		0	18

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Kris Mclaren	20	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,454 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Pedro Acosta +0.35%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.53%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.40%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%	Raul Fernandez +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Raul Fernandez +0.43%	Alex Marquez +0.55%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi	Brad Binder +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.14%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%
S3	Jorge Martin	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.26%
S2	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.75%	Marc Marquez +0.83%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.51%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Brad Binder +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.11%	Enea Bastianini +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Remy Gardner +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Jack Miller +0.65%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Cal Crutchlow +0.67%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%	Andrea Iannone +0.59%
S2	Jack Miller +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.87%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.59%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

5/100

Position index

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Lorenzo	330	—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	307	−23
3	Casey Stoner	213	−117
4	Andrea Dovizioso	195	−135
5	Alvaro Bautista	154	−176
6	Valentino Rossi	148	−182

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2011 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

2.210 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Randy De Puniet, from P9 to P6.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Daniel Pedrosa (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Raul FernandezAprilia
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Johann ZarcoDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	2/21	10%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/21	24%
2018	5/23	22%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet