Round 21 of 22 Aftermath

Portuguese Grand Prix 2025

Autódromo Internacional do Algarve Portugal

4.590 m · 25 laps · since 2020

07.11 – 09.11.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	41:13.616	25
2	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+2.583	20
3	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+3.188	16
4	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+12.860	13
5	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+16.327	11
6	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+18.442	10
7	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+19.255	9
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+20.612	8
9	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+21.040	7
10	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+26.517	6
11	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+28.226	5
12	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+29.717	4
13	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+30.372	3
14	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+31.621	2
15	Nicolo Bulega	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+32.072	1
16	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+39.869	0
17	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+61.999	0
18	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+0.000	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	19:50.075	12
2	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+0.120	9
3	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+0.637	7
4	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+5.276	6
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+6.088	5
6	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+8.864	4
7	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+8.886	3
8	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+8.898	2
9	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+9.052	1
10	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+10.121	0
11	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+10.290	0
12	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+12.016	0
13	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+13.469	0
14	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+13.900	0
15	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+14.520	0
16	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+15.289	0
17	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+22.861	0
18	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+25.456	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0
DNF	Nicolo Bulega	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Marco Bezzecchi · 31%	Alex Marquez · 8% · from P5	0.86 / 0.86	2.1 / 2.0
Race (after the grid)	Marco Bezzecchi · 31% ✓	Marco Bezzecchi · 31% · from P1	0.81 / 0.81	2.4 / 2.3
Race (after the sprint)	Marco Bezzecchi · 31% ✓	Marco Bezzecchi · 31% · from P1	0.91 / 0.81	1.7 / 2.4

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marco Bezzecchi	1:38.812	—	+0.553	Medium	23
Alex Marquez	1:38.996	+0.184	+0.356	Medium	23
Pedro Acosta	1:39.048	+0.236	+0.448	Medium	23
Francesco Bagnaia	1:39.074	+0.262	+0.221	Medium	8
Fermin Aldeguer	1:39.313	+0.501	+0.884	Medium	23
Brad Binder	1:39.482	+0.670	+0.327	Medium	23
Enea Bastianini	1:39.503	+0.691	+0.319	Medium	19
Ai Ogura	1:39.561	+0.749	+0.300	Medium	23
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:39.582	+0.770	+0.320	Medium	23
Johann Zarco	1:39.607	+0.795	+0.344	Medium	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:39.657	+0.845	+0.275	Medium	23
Pol Espargaro	1:39.781	+0.969	+0.406	Medium	23
Nicolo Bulega	1:39.878	+1.066	—	Medium	23
Luca Marini	1:39.905	+1.093	+0.308	Medium	23
Alex Rins	1:39.969	+1.157	+0.217	Medium	23
Jack Miller	1:39.998	+1.186	+0.105	Medium	23
Miguel Oliveira	1:40.054	+1.242	+0.193	Medium	23
Lorenzo Savadori	1:40.246	+1.434	+0.781	Medium	23
Somkiat Chantra	1:41.145	+2.333	+0.221	Medium	23

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

25/25

Laps led by the winner

Marco Bezzecchi

2.583 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P14 to P5.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Somkiat Chantra (21 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

4/12

Laps led by the winner

Alex Marquez

0.120 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fermin Aldeguer, from P11 to P6.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Jack Miller (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:06:12	Somkiat Chantra	Retired	entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:08:00	Joan Mir	Retired	entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:08:54	Nicolo Bulega	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:03:16	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK - Medical Centre
Race	13:06:32	Joan Mir	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	13:20:11	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK

Sprint: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marco Bezzecchi (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	14	8	+6
Lorenzo Savadori	20	18	+2
Luca Marini	13	11	+2
Fabio Di Giannantonio	9	14	−5
Enea Bastianini	16	20	−4
Pol Espargaro	10	13	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Brad Binder	14→5	+6.2
Fermin Aldeguer	11→4	+5.3
Alex Marquez	5→2	+3.4
Johann Zarco	6→9	−3.0
Jack Miller	8→12	−4.7
Enea Bastianini	16→18	−5.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.81%	+0.019	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

19.5 °C

Air

max 19.8 °C

56%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

3 km/h

Wind

gusts 13 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 07.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	01:39.145	—	19	343.9	Soft / Medium	1:39.940	—	6	Medium
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:39.341	+0.196	20	341.7	Soft / Medium	1:40.232	+0.29%	10	Medium
3	Jack Miller	01:39.378	+0.233	19	342.8	Medium / Medium	1:40.574	+0.63%	8	Medium
4	Johann Zarco	01:39.494	+0.349	17	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:40.198	+0.26%	8	Medium
5	Pol Espargaro	01:39.506	+0.361	18	342.8	Soft / Medium	1:41.678	+1.74%	6	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.534	+0.389	18	342.8	Soft / Medium	1:47.051	+7.12%	11	Medium
7	Luca Marini	01:39.549	+0.404	19	346.1	Medium / Medium	1:40.166	+0.23%	6	Medium
8	Joan Mir	01:39.550	+0.405	16	343.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
9	Pedro Acosta	01:39.666	+0.521	18	342.8	Medium / Medium	1:40.200	+0.26%	5	Medium
10	Fermin Aldeguer	01:39.685	+0.540	17	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:40.948	+1.01%	5	Medium
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.732	+0.587	19	337.5	Medium / Medium	1:40.671	+0.73%	7	Medium
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:39.737	+0.592	16	342.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
13	Ai Ogura	01:39.986	+0.841	19	340.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.027	+1.09%	7	Medium
14	Nicolo Bulega	01:40.073	+0.928	21	338.5	Soft / Medium	1:41.394	+1.46%	17	Medium
15	Brad Binder	01:40.185	+1.040	21	346.1	Medium / Medium	1:40.949	+1.01%	16	Medium
16	Alex Rins	01:40.221	+1.076	20	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:43.877	+3.94%	11	Medium
17	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.306	+1.161	18	345.0	Medium / Medium	1:40.954	+1.02%	6	Medium
18	Raul Fernandez	01:40.349	+1.204	11	337.5	Medium / Medium	1:40.576	+0.64%	6	Medium
19	Enea Bastianini	01:40.400	+1.255	19	343.9	Medium / Medium	1:42.582	+2.64%	6	Medium
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.857	+1.712	18	340.6	Soft / Medium	1:43.094	+3.16%	5	Medium
21	Somkiat Chantra	01:41.263	+2.118	18	340.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.649	+1.71%	9	Medium
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:41.520	+2.375	18	341.7	Soft / Medium	1:42.770	+2.83%	9	Medium

Practice · 07.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	01:37.974	—	24	343.9	Medium / Soft	1:39.280	+0.03%	5	Medium
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.004	+0.030	20	345.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Pedro Acosta	01:38.062	+0.088	23	347.2	Soft / Soft	1:39.308	+0.06%	9	Soft
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:38.133	+0.159	25	347.2	Soft / Soft	1:39.247	—	13	Soft
5	Joan Mir	01:38.183	+0.209	22	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Johann Zarco	01:38.232	+0.258	19	345.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.302	+0.328	24	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:39.711	+0.47%	5	Soft
8	Fermin Aldeguer	01:38.382	+0.408	24	338.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Pol Espargaro	01:38.424	+0.450	20	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:39.819	+0.58%	5	Medium
10	Ai Ogura	01:38.443	+0.469	22	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:39.574	+0.33%	4	Soft
11	Luca Marini	01:38.551	+0.577	19	345.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.597	+0.623	18	342.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.598	+0.624	23	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:40.026	+0.79%	10	Soft
14	Brad Binder	01:38.653	+0.679	26	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:39.879	+0.64%	17	Soft
15	Raul Fernandez	01:38.762	+0.788	20	342.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Jack Miller	01:38.874	+0.900	22	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:40.328	+1.09%	9	Soft
17	Nicolo Bulega	01:38.986	+1.012	24	341.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Alex Rins	01:39.070	+1.096	23	341.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Enea Bastianini	01:39.130	+1.156	22	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:40.814	+1.58%	6	Soft
20	Somkiat Chantra	01:39.798	+1.824	24	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:40.593	+1.36%	4	Soft
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:39.858	+1.884	23	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:41.296	+2.07%	8	Soft
22	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.881	+1.907	19	340.6	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 08.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fermin Aldeguer	01:41.654	—	7	336.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Alex Marquez	01:41.657	+0.003	6	338.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Joan Mir	01:41.677	+0.023	10	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:43.831	—	5	Soft
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:41.963	+0.309	12	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:45.042	+1.17%	6	Soft
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:42.012	+0.358	8	337.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Pedro Acosta	01:42.073	+0.419	11	334.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Johann Zarco	01:42.125	+0.471	9	338.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Raul Fernandez	01:42.507	+0.853	6	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Pol Espargaro	01:42.516	+0.862	10	336.4	Soft / Soft	1:45.398	+1.51%	4	Soft
10	Jack Miller	01:42.606	+0.952	8	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Brad Binder	01:42.682	+1.028	14	333.3	Soft / Soft	1:46.020	+2.11%	8	Soft
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:42.833	+1.179	11	336.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Nicolo Bulega	01:42.833	+1.179	8	336.4	Soft / Soft	1:44.954	+1.08%	5	Soft
14	Somkiat Chantra	01:43.339	+1.685	7	330.2	Soft / Soft	1:46.314	+2.39%	4	Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:43.410	+1.756	13	333.3	Soft / Soft	1:46.437	+2.51%	7	Soft
16	Fabio Quartararo	01:43.431	+1.777	10	333.3	Soft / Soft	1:47.192	+3.24%	8	Soft
17	Lorenzo Savadori	01:44.099	+2.445	8	332.3	Soft / Soft	1:45.986	+2.08%	5	Soft
18	Luca Marini	01:44.178	+2.524	7	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:45.222	+1.34%	5	Soft
19	Enea Bastianini	01:44.259	+2.605	9	334.3	Soft / Soft	1:49.246	+5.22%	6	Soft
20	Ai Ogura	01:44.590	+2.936	6	330.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Alex Rins	01:45.631	+3.977	11	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.455	+4.801	11	331.2	Soft / Soft	1:52.394	+8.25%	4	Wet-Medium

Q1 · 08.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.661	—	8	335.4	Soft / Soft
2	Jack Miller	01:38.914	+0.253	8	339.6	Soft / Soft
3	Luca Marini	01:39.003	+0.342	7	345.0	Soft / Soft
4	Brad Binder	01:39.360	+0.699	6	337.5	Soft / Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.380	+0.719	8	337.5	Soft / Soft
6	Enea Bastianini	01:39.635	+0.974	7	337.5	Soft / Soft
7	Alex Rins	01:39.654	+0.993	7	333.3	Soft / Soft
8	Nicolo Bulega	01:39.674	+1.013	7	337.5	Soft / Soft
9	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.869	+1.208	6	336.4	Soft / Soft
10	Lorenzo Savadori	01:39.903	+1.242	7	339.6	Soft / Soft
11	Somkiat Chantra	01:40.201	+1.540	8	335.4	Soft / Soft
Retired	Raul Fernandez		—	0	0.0	— / —

Q2 · 08.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:37.556	—	8	345.0	Soft / Soft
2	Pedro Acosta	01:37.706	+0.150	8	342.8	Soft / Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:37.860	+0.304	8	335.4	Soft / Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.935	+0.379	8	346.1	Soft / Soft
5	Alex Marquez	01:37.987	+0.431	6	341.7	Soft / Soft
6	Johann Zarco	01:38.059	+0.503	8	342.8	Soft / Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:38.177	+0.621	8	341.7	Soft / Soft
8	Jack Miller	01:38.217	+0.661	8	339.6	Soft / Soft
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.425	+0.869	8	343.9	Soft / Soft
10	Pol Espargaro	01:38.449	+0.893	7	342.8	Soft / Soft
11	Fermin Aldeguer	01:38.492	+0.936	8	337.5	Medium / Soft
12	Ai Ogura	01:38.525	+0.969	9	337.5	Soft / Soft

Sprint · 08.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	19:50.075	12	12	Hard / Soft	1:38.966	—	10	Soft
2	Pedro Acosta	+0.120	9	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.139	+0.18%	10	Soft
3	Marco Bezzecchi	+0.637	7	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.231	+0.27%	10	Soft
4	Fabio Quartararo	+5.276	6	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.474	+0.51%	10	Soft
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+6.088	5	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.392	+0.43%	10	Soft
6	Fermin Aldeguer	+8.864	4	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.261	+0.30%	9	Soft
7	Johann Zarco	+8.886	3	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.578	+0.62%	10	Soft
8	Francesco Bagnaia	+8.898	2	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.525	+0.57%	10	Soft
9	Brad Binder	+9.052	1	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.418	+0.46%	10	Soft
10	Pol Espargaro	+10.121	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.620	+0.66%	10	Soft
11	Ai Ogura	+10.290	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.660	+0.70%	10	Soft
12	Luca Marini	+12.016	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.729	+0.77%	10	Soft
13	Enea Bastianini	+13.469	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.920	+0.96%	10	Soft
14	Jack Miller	+13.900	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.932	+0.98%	10	Soft
15	Franco Morbidelli	+14.520	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.814	+0.86%	10	Soft
16	Miguel Oliveira	+15.289	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:40.008	+1.05%	10	Soft
17	Alex Rins	+22.861	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:40.544	+1.59%	10	Soft
18	Lorenzo Savadori	+25.456	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:40.926	+1.98%	10	Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		0	3	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Nicolo Bulega		0	3	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Somkiat Chantra		0	2	Medium / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 09.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:38.292	—	6	352.9	Soft / Medium
2	Pedro Acosta	01:38.836	+0.544	6	349.5	Soft / Medium
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.912	+0.620	6	339.6	Soft / Medium
4	Fermin Aldeguer	01:38.920	+0.628	6	338.5	Soft / Medium
5	Joan Mir	01:38.999	+0.707	6	346.1	Soft / Medium
6	Alex Marquez	01:39.071	+0.779	6	346.1	Soft / Medium
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.115	+0.823	6	342.8	Soft / Medium
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.186	+0.894	6	337.5	Soft / Medium
9	Jack Miller	01:39.451	+1.159	6	343.9	Soft / Medium
10	Ai Ogura	01:39.544	+1.252	6	346.1	Soft / Medium
11	Johann Zarco	01:39.623	+1.331	6	342.8	Soft / Medium
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:39.639	+1.347	6	347.2	Soft / Medium
13	Pol Espargaro	01:39.792	+1.500	6	347.2	Soft / Medium
14	Brad Binder	01:39.842	+1.550	6	346.1	Soft / Medium
15	Enea Bastianini	01:39.853	+1.561	6	349.5	Soft / Medium
16	Luca Marini	01:39.890	+1.598	6	348.3	Soft / Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.969	+1.677	6	346.1	Soft / Medium
18	Alex Rins	01:40.140	+1.848	6	342.8	Soft / Medium
19	Nicolo Bulega	01:40.438	+2.146	6	346.1	Soft / Medium
20	Somkiat Chantra	01:40.802	+2.510	6	340.6	Soft / Medium
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:40.805	+2.513	6	338.5	Soft / Medium

Race · 09.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	41:13.616	25	25	Hard / Medium	1:38.812	—	23	Medium
2	Alex Marquez	+2.583	20	25	Hard / Medium	1:38.996	+0.19%	23	Medium
3	Pedro Acosta	+3.188	16	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.048	+0.24%	23	Medium
4	Fermin Aldeguer	+12.860	13	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.313	+0.51%	23	Medium
5	Brad Binder	+16.327	11	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.482	+0.68%	23	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	+18.442	10	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.657	+0.86%	23	Medium
7	Ai Ogura	+19.255	9	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.561	+0.76%	23	Medium
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+20.612	8	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.582	+0.78%	23	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	+21.040	7	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.607	+0.81%	23	Medium
10	Pol Espargaro	+26.517	6	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.781	+0.98%	23	Medium
11	Luca Marini	+28.226	5	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.905	+1.11%	23	Medium
12	Jack Miller	+29.717	4	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.998	+1.20%	23	Medium
13	Alex Rins	+30.372	3	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.969	+1.17%	23	Medium
14	Miguel Oliveira	+31.621	2	25	Hard / Medium	1:40.054	+1.26%	23	Medium
15	Nicolo Bulega	+32.072	1	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.878	+1.08%	23	Medium
16	Lorenzo Savadori	+39.869	0	25	Hard / Medium	1:40.246	+1.45%	23	Medium
17	Somkiat Chantra	+61.999	0	25	Hard / Medium	1:41.145	+2.36%	23	Medium
18	Enea Bastianini	+0.000	0	23	Hard / Medium	1:39.503	+0.70%	19	Medium
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	10	Hard / Medium	1:39.074	+0.27%	8	Medium
Out on lap 1	Franco Morbidelli		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		0	2	Hard / Medium	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fermin Aldeguer	1:39.085*	—	+0.884	Medium	3
Alex Marquez	1:39.223*	+0.138	+0.356	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Jack Miller	57%	2 ✓
2	Brad Binder	44%	4
3	Fabio Quartararo	28%	1 ✓
4	Luca Marini	21%	3
5	Nicolo Bulega	19%	8
6	Franco Morbidelli	10%	5
7	Somkiat Chantra	7%	11
8	Miguel Oliveira	4%	9
9	Enea Bastianini	3%	6
10	Alex Rins	3%	7
11	Lorenzo Savadori	4%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Alex Marquez	38%	66%	88%	5
2	Francesco Bagnaia	21%	53%	81%	4
3	Marco Bezzecchi	14%	45%	75%	1
4	Joan Mir	6%	32%	67%	7
5	Pedro Acosta	4%	25%	54%	2
6	Fermin Aldeguer	6%	22%	55%	11
7	Johann Zarco	1%	13%	40%	6
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	3%	15%	38%	9
9	Pol Espargaro	3%	8%	30%	10
10	Jack Miller	2%	8%	25%	8
11	Fabio Quartararo	2%	9%	28%	3
12	Ai Ogura	1%	4%	19%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Sprint	Raul Fernandez	22	—	—	absent del Grid.pdf (pit lane / no surt)
Race	Raul Fernandez	22	—	—	absent del Grid.pdf (pit lane / no surt)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	31%	61%	74%	83%	15%	3
Pedro Acosta	2	21%	53%	70%	82%	15%	2
Fabio Quartararo	3	15%	47%	66%	82%	14%	4
Francesco Bagnaia	4	10%	39%	61%	83%	12%	8
Alex Marquez	5	8%	31%	56%	84%	11%	1
Johann Zarco	6	5%	21%	41%	71%	23%	7
Joan Mir	7	2%	14%	32%	66%	24%	—
Jack Miller	8	3%	12%	31%	76%	9%	14
Fabio Di Giannantonio	9	2%	8%	19%	68%	14%	5
Pol Espargaro	10	1%	4%	15%	63%	12%	10
Fermin Aldeguer	11	1%	3%	12%	54%	11%	6
Ai Ogura	12	1%	3%	9%	52%	3%	11
Luca Marini	13	1%	2%	6%	38%	11%	12
Brad Binder	14	1%	1%	3%	27%	18%	9
Franco Morbidelli	15	0%	1%	2%	25%	8%	15
Enea Bastianini	16	0%	1%	2%	16%	12%	13
Alex Rins	17	0%	0%	1%	11%	9%	17
Nicolo Bulega	18	0%	0%	1%	8%	13%	—
Miguel Oliveira	19	0%	0%	0%	5%	13%	16
Lorenzo Savadori	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	15%	18
Somkiat Chantra	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	8%	—
Raul Fernandez	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	6%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	31%	62%	75%	82%	17%	1
Pedro Acosta	2	29%	61%	73%	80%	18%	3
Fabio Quartararo	3	6%	29%	54%	83%	13%	6
Francesco Bagnaia	4	6%	28%	50%	71%	24%	—
Alex Marquez	5	17%	50%	66%	76%	22%	2
Johann Zarco	6	2%	12%	30%	72%	19%	9
Joan Mir	7	2%	11%	27%	56%	37%	—
Jack Miller	8	0%	1%	7%	43%	25%	12
Fabio Di Giannantonio	9	4%	21%	45%	78%	16%	8
Pol Espargaro	10	0%	3%	13%	57%	20%	10
Fermin Aldeguer	11	2%	12%	31%	71%	20%	4
Ai Ogura	12	0%	2%	6%	45%	23%	7
Luca Marini	13	0%	1%	5%	45%	8%	11
Brad Binder	14	1%	6%	18%	67%	14%	5
Franco Morbidelli	15	0%	0%	2%	28%	16%	—
Enea Bastianini	16	0%	0%	1%	19%	18%	18
Alex Rins	17	0%	0%	0%	9%	20%	13
Nicolo Bulega	18	0%	0%	0%	5%	19%	15
Miguel Oliveira	19	0%	0%	0%	7%	21%	14
Lorenzo Savadori	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	28%	16
Somkiat Chantra	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	10%	17
Raul Fernandez	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	20%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Alex Marquez	28% → 50%	+22	7% → 17%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	9% → 21%	+12	2% → 4%
Pedro Acosta	51% → 61%	+10	20% → 29%
Dropping
Fabio Quartararo	48% → 29%	−19	16% → 6%
Johann Zarco	23% → 12%	−12	6% → 2%
Jack Miller	12% → 1%	−11	2% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	1:38.966	—	+0.356	Soft	10
Pedro Acosta	1:39.139	+0.173	+0.448	Soft	10
Marco Bezzecchi	1:39.231	+0.265	+0.553	Soft	10
Fermin Aldeguer	1:39.261	+0.295	+0.884	Soft	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:39.392	+0.426	+0.320	Soft	10
Brad Binder	1:39.418	+0.452	+0.327	Soft	10
Fabio Quartararo	1:39.474	+0.508	+0.275	Soft	10
Francesco Bagnaia	1:39.525	+0.559	+0.221	Soft	10
Johann Zarco	1:39.578	+0.612	+0.344	Soft	10
Pol Espargaro	1:39.620	+0.654	+0.406	Soft	10
Ai Ogura	1:39.660	+0.694	+0.300	Soft	10
Luca Marini	1:39.729	+0.763	+0.308	Soft	10
Franco Morbidelli	1:39.814	+0.848	+0.512	Soft	10
Enea Bastianini	1:39.920	+0.954	+0.319	Soft	10
Jack Miller	1:39.932	+0.966	+0.105	Soft	10
Miguel Oliveira	1:40.008	+1.042	+0.193	Soft	10
Alex Rins	1:40.544	+1.578	+0.217	Soft	10
Lorenzo Savadori	1:40.926	+1.960	+0.781	Soft	10

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Jack Miller +0.32%	Jorge Martin +0.33%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Cal Crutchlow +0.50%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.57%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.13%	Pedro Acosta +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.15%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.52%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Alex Marquez +0.49%	Pedro Acosta +0.63%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.35%	Alex Marquez +0.37%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.16%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.07%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.26%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Pedro Acosta +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.13%	Joan Mir +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Johann Zarco +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Alex Marquez +0.36%
S2	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Aleix Espargaro +0.16%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Brad Binder +0.48%	Alex Rins +0.58%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.55%	Johann Zarco +0.60%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.02%	Jack Miller +0.33%
S2	Jack Miller +0.28%	Joan Mir +0.29%	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.76%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.37%	Alex Marquez +0.55%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Miguel Oliveira +0.08%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.29%
S2	Miguel Oliveira +0.17%	Franco Morbidelli +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S3	Miguel Oliveira +0.01%	Johann Zarco +0.43%	Stefan Bradl +0.46%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.02%	Cal Crutchlow +0.13%	Stefan Bradl +0.28%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

14/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

61%

Front row on the podium

0.68

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 100% of the time (between 21% and 100%; 1 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2020–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	545	—
2	Alex Marquez	413	−132
3	Marco Bezzecchi	291	−254
4	Francesco Bagnaia	286	−259
5	Pedro Acosta	260	−285
6	Franco Morbidelli	227	−318

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

25/25

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

0.882 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Joan Mir, from P20 to P12.

Longest battle: Jorge Martin vs Maverick Viñales (24 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2024 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:38.996	—	+0.457	Medium	23
Maverick Viñales	1:39.057	+0.061	+0.292	Medium	22
Enea Bastianini	1:39.066	+0.070	+0.319	Medium	23
Pedro Acosta	1:39.191	+0.195	+0.448	Medium	23
Francesco Bagnaia	1:39.257	+0.261	+0.221	Medium	21
Marc Marquez	1:39.300	+0.304	+0.210	Medium	22
Brad Binder	1:39.337	+0.341	+0.327	Medium	23
Jack Miller	1:39.556	+0.560	+0.105	Medium	23
Aleix Espargaro	1:39.666	+0.670	+0.209	Medium	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:39.688	+0.692	+0.512	Medium	23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2024Jorge MartinDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2020Miguel OliveiraKTM
2012Casey StonerHonda
2011Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 23% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	4/22	18%
2023	6/20	30%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	5/21	24%
2020	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.75%	−0.002	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.