MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 22 of 22 Aftermath

Valencia Grand Prix 2025

Circuit Ricardo Tormo Spain

4.005 m · 27 laps · since 1999
14.11 – 16.11.2025
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marco BezzecchiApriliaAprilia Racing40:52.45825
2Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+0.68620
3Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+3.76516
4Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+4.74913
5Fermin AldeguerDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+8.04811
6Alex MarquezDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+8.16610
7Luca MariniHondaHonda HRC Castrol+12.6449
8Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+14.5828
9Jack MillerYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+15.4977
10Enea BastianiniKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3+17.4606
11Miguel OliveiraYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+19.3045
12Johann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCR+21.2864
13Joan MirHondaHonda HRC Castrol+22.0793
14Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+23.2552
15Nicolo BulegaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+26.1441
16Augusto FernandezYamahaYamaha Factory Racing+36.8540
17Somkiat ChantraHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCR+39.1360
DNFAi OguraApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP TeamRetired0
DNFAleix EspargaroHondaHonda HRC Test TeamRetired0
DNFFabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP TeamRetired0
DNFFrancesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo TeamOut on lap 10
DNFFranco MorbidelliDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing TeamRetired0
DNFJorge MartinApriliaAprilia RacingRetired0
DNFMaverick ViñalesKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3Retired0

Sprint result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Alex MarquezDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP19:37.49012
2Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+1.1499
3Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+2.6377
4Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+3.5196
5Marco BezzecchiApriliaAprilia Racing+3.7275
6Franco MorbidelliDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+6.3494
7Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+7.1023
8Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+7.3522
9Ai OguraApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+7.6851
10Johann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCR+9.3460
11Fermin AldeguerDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+10.0670
12Jack MillerYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+11.1480
13Enea BastianiniKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3+11.9110
14Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+11.9570
15Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+14.2640
16Nicolo BulegaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+14.9510
17Miguel OliveiraYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+15.5970
18Maverick ViñalesKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3+16.6990
19Aleix EspargaroHondaHonda HRC Test Team+16.8850
20Augusto FernandezYamahaYamaha Factory Racing+18.8460
21Somkiat ChantraHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCR+23.0280
22Jorge MartinApriliaAprilia Racing+23.6550
DNFJoan MirHondaHonda HRC CastrolRetired0
DNFLuca MariniHondaHonda HRC CastrolRetired0

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
SprintMarco Bezzecchi · 29%Alex Marquez · 22% · from P20.87 / 0.872.3 / 2.4
Race (after the grid)Marco Bezzecchi · 32% ✓Marco Bezzecchi · 32% · from P10.87 / 0.872.4 / 2.3
Race (after the sprint)Alex Marquez · 28%Marco Bezzecchi · 23% · from P10.84 / 0.872.4 / 2.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Ai Ogura1:30.654—+0.300Medium4
Raul Fernandez1:30.747+0.093+0.667Medium25
Marco Bezzecchi1:30.749+0.095+0.553Medium25
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:30.787+0.133+0.320Medium25
Pedro Acosta1:30.796+0.142+0.448Medium25
Fermin Aldeguer1:30.908+0.254+0.884Medium25
Luca Marini1:30.933+0.279+0.308Medium25
Jack Miller1:31.005+0.351+0.105Medium25
Alex Marquez1:31.096+0.442+0.356Medium25
Fabio Quartararo1:31.115+0.461+0.275Medium21
Brad Binder1:31.122+0.468+0.327Medium25
Miguel Oliveira1:31.233+0.579+0.193Medium25
Johann Zarco1:31.241+0.587+0.344Medium25
Maverick Viñales1:31.243+0.589+0.292Medium21
Aleix Espargaro1:31.249+0.595+0.209Medium22
Jorge Martin1:31.256+0.602+0.457Medium12
Alex Rins1:31.274+0.620+0.217Medium25
Enea Bastianini1:31.292+0.638+0.319Medium24
Joan Mir1:31.326+0.672+0.562Medium25
Nicolo Bulega1:31.400+0.746—Medium25
Augusto Fernandez1:31.857+1.203+0.437Medium25
Somkiat Chantra1:31.913+1.259+0.221Medium25

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

57
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
27/27
Laps led by the winner
Marco Bezzecchi
0.686 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P20 to P10.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Luca Marini (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

38
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
13/13
Laps led by the winner
Alex Marquez
1.149 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P15 to P8.

Longest battle: Fabio Di Giannantonio vs Raul Fernandez (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Sprint15:04:30Joan MirCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:04:30Luca MariniCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:08:32Jack MillerPosition penaltyTo drop 3 position - causing contact
Sprint15:15:05Jack MillerLong lapLong lap penalty - failed to drop positions
Sprint15:21:02Jack MillerLong lapLong lap penalty - COMPLETE
Race14:01:55Franco MorbidelliCrashCrashed out on warm up lap
Race14:02:54Franco MorbidelliPit-lane startStarting from pit lane
Race14:03:05Francesco BagnaiaCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:04:00Joan MirLong lapLong lap penalty
Race14:04:00Jorge MartinLong lapDouble long lap penalty
Race14:04:59Johann ZarcoLong lapLong lap penalty - causing a crash
Race14:05:00Franco MorbidelliRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:05:52Jorge MartinLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:07:02Jorge MartinLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race14:08:31Joan MirLong lapLong lap penalty - COMPLETE
Race14:08:46Johann ZarcoLong lapLong lap penalty - COMPLETE
Race14:11:57Ai OguraCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:25:49Jorge MartinRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:37:57Maverick ViñalesRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:38:26Fabio QuartararoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:41:10Aleix EspargaroRetiredEntered pits and retired
RaceSanctionFIM MotoGP Stewards double long lap penalty for rider #1 & long lap penalty for rider #36

Sprint: 2 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

RiderGrid→Pos.Beats the grid
Enea Bastianini20→10+5.0
Brad Binder15→8+3.8
Luca Marini13→7+3.5
Alex Marquez2→6−2.5
Johann Zarco11→12−2.7
Joan Mir10→13−4.4

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Medium100%+0.58%+0.041139.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
19.0 °C
Air
max 19.3 °C
53%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
21 km/h
Wind
gusts 39 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 14.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Jack Miller01:30.382—21332.1Medium / Medium1:31.590+0.32%10Medium
2Ai Ogura01:30.705+0.32321328.9Soft / Medium1:32.018+0.79%10Medium
3Aleix Espargaro01:30.707+0.32518333.7Soft / Medium——
4Raul Fernandez01:30.800+0.41819327.4Soft / Medium1:32.211+1.00%5Medium
5Franco Morbidelli01:30.860+0.47817330.5Soft / Medium——
6Alex Marquez01:30.884+0.50219330.5Soft / Medium1:32.182+0.97%4Medium
7Joan Mir01:30.926+0.54419333.7Medium / Medium1:31.562+0.29%5Medium
8Pedro Acosta01:30.998+0.61621333.7Medium / Medium1:31.483+0.20%11Medium
9Fabio Di Giannantonio01:31.033+0.65120333.7Soft / Medium1:31.297—5Medium
10Augusto Fernandez01:31.035+0.65321327.4Soft / Medium1:31.917+0.68%7Medium
11Fermin Aldeguer01:31.113+0.73114327.4Soft / Medium——
12Luca Marini01:31.146+0.76421338.7Soft / Medium1:31.637+0.37%10Medium
13Johann Zarco01:31.171+0.78920332.1Soft / Medium1:32.046+0.82%4Medium
14Fabio Quartararo01:31.204+0.82218327.4Medium / Medium1:31.324+0.03%6Medium
15Alex Rins01:31.301+0.91920332.1Medium / Medium1:31.980+0.75%6Medium
16Brad Binder01:31.319+0.93719337.0Soft / Medium1:31.793+0.54%5Medium
17Enea Bastianini01:31.326+0.94420332.1Soft / Medium1:31.659+0.40%11Medium
18Marco Bezzecchi01:31.364+0.98222335.4Medium / Medium1:32.506+1.32%5Medium
19Maverick Viñales01:31.430+1.04819328.9Soft / Medium1:31.735+0.48%5Medium
20Somkiat Chantra01:31.454+1.07221328.9Medium / Medium1:32.814+1.66%9Medium
21Francesco Bagnaia01:31.528+1.14618335.4Soft / Medium1:31.952+0.72%10Medium
22Miguel Oliveira01:31.715+1.33318330.5Soft / Medium1:32.256+1.05%5Medium
23Nicolo Bulega01:31.766+1.38420332.1Hard / Medium1:32.278+1.08%5Medium
24Jorge Martin01:31.923+1.54118332.1Soft / Medium1:32.531+1.35%5Medium
Practice · 14.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Pedro Acosta01:29.240—26340.3Soft / Soft1:30.379—13Soft
2Marco Bezzecchi01:29.293+0.05325338.7Soft / Soft1:30.979+0.66%11Soft
3Franco Morbidelli01:29.425+0.18521330.5Soft / Soft——
4Alex Marquez01:29.473+0.23325335.4Hard / Soft1:30.531+0.17%5Medium
5Ai Ogura01:29.555+0.31523333.7Soft / Soft1:30.552+0.19%11Medium
6Jack Miller01:29.556+0.31626337.0Hard / Soft1:30.994+0.68%6Soft
7Fabio Di Giannantonio01:29.593+0.35323333.7Soft / Soft1:30.772+0.44%5Medium
8Fermin Aldeguer01:29.597+0.35726330.5Soft / Soft1:30.607+0.25%5Medium
9Joan Mir01:29.634+0.39425338.7Hard / Soft1:30.854+0.53%5Medium
10Fabio Quartararo01:29.673+0.43323332.1Hard / Soft1:30.495+0.13%7Medium
11Brad Binder01:29.729+0.48925340.3Soft / Soft1:31.291+1.01%12Soft
12Raul Fernandez01:29.806+0.56626337.0Soft / Soft1:30.794+0.46%12Medium
13Aleix Espargaro01:29.832+0.59222335.4Soft / Soft1:30.749+0.41%5Soft
14Francesco Bagnaia01:29.833+0.59323330.5Hard / Soft1:30.601+0.25%5Soft
15Johann Zarco01:29.891+0.65125338.7Soft / Soft1:30.671+0.32%5Medium
16Luca Marini01:29.896+0.65627338.7Soft / Soft——
17Alex Rins01:29.999+0.75922337.0Soft / Soft1:31.104+0.80%6Medium
18Maverick Viñales01:30.147+0.90725337.0Soft / Soft1:31.316+1.04%6Medium
19Enea Bastianini01:30.237+0.99723337.0Soft / Soft1:31.017+0.71%6Medium
20Augusto Fernandez01:30.267+1.02725325.8Soft / Soft1:31.844+1.62%6Soft
21Miguel Oliveira01:30.304+1.06428333.7Soft / Soft1:31.341+1.06%13Soft
22Jorge Martin01:30.404+1.16423335.4Hard / Soft——
23Somkiat Chantra01:30.529+1.28924337.0Medium / Soft——
24Nicolo Bulega01:30.552+1.31228333.7Hard / Soft1:31.510+1.25%5Soft
FP2 · 15.11 partly wet
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Ai Ogura01:29.897—17332.1Soft / Soft1:31.170+0.92%12Soft
2Francesco Bagnaia01:29.996+0.09914335.4Soft / Medium1:30.700+0.40%6Soft
3Marco Bezzecchi01:30.104+0.20716333.7Soft / Medium1:30.341—10Medium
4Franco Morbidelli01:30.186+0.28915330.5Soft / Soft1:30.569+0.25%10Soft
5Pedro Acosta01:30.240+0.34314333.7Soft / Medium1:30.622+0.31%6Soft
6Alex Marquez01:30.296+0.39914335.4Soft / Soft1:30.966+0.69%5Soft
7Fabio Quartararo01:30.313+0.41615327.4Soft / Soft1:31.940+1.77%7Soft
8Fermin Aldeguer01:30.371+0.47412328.9Soft / Soft——
9Aleix Espargaro01:30.372+0.47512337.0Soft / Soft——
10Raul Fernandez01:30.441+0.54412327.4Soft / Soft1:31.012+0.74%5Medium
11Jorge Martin01:30.520+0.62313333.7Soft / Medium1:31.325+1.09%5Medium
12Joan Mir01:30.542+0.64515335.4Soft / Soft1:30.936+0.66%10Soft
13Jack Miller01:30.579+0.68215335.4Soft / Medium1:30.852+0.57%9Soft
14Fabio Di Giannantonio01:30.580+0.68314338.7Soft / Soft1:31.301+1.06%5Soft
15Enea Bastianini01:30.776+0.87913340.3Soft / Soft1:31.377+1.15%5Soft
16Maverick Viñales01:30.809+0.91213332.1Soft / Soft1:31.273+1.03%7Soft
17Johann Zarco01:30.810+0.91315338.7Soft / Medium1:31.089+0.83%11Medium
18Nicolo Bulega01:30.851+0.95417332.1Soft / Soft1:31.359+1.13%13Soft
19Augusto Fernandez01:30.876+0.97916324.3Soft / Soft1:31.338+1.10%11Soft
20Luca Marini01:30.938+1.04112333.7Soft / Soft1:31.728+1.54%5Soft
21Miguel Oliveira01:30.975+1.07814332.1Soft / Soft1:31.126+0.87%10Soft
22Brad Binder01:31.049+1.15215333.7Soft / Soft1:31.416+1.19%11Soft
23Alex Rins01:31.252+1.35512335.4Soft / Soft1:31.488+1.27%4Soft
24Somkiat Chantra01:31.412+1.51513330.5Soft / Soft1:32.091+1.94%5Soft
Q1 · 15.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Raul Fernandez01:29.036—9330.5Soft / Soft
2Johann Zarco01:29.460+0.4248338.7Soft / Soft
3Luca Marini01:29.520+0.4848335.4Soft / Soft
4Aleix Espargaro01:29.526+0.4908330.5Soft / Soft
5Brad Binder01:29.561+0.5258340.3Soft / Soft
6Francesco Bagnaia01:29.584+0.5486333.7Soft / Soft
7Jorge Martin01:29.630+0.5948328.9Soft / Soft
8Miguel Oliveira01:29.657+0.6218332.1Soft / Soft
9Alex Rins01:29.907+0.8718335.4Soft / Soft
10Enea Bastianini01:29.948+0.9128332.1Soft / Soft
11Maverick Viñales01:29.987+0.9517333.7Soft / Soft
12Nicolo Bulega01:30.045+1.0099335.4Soft / Soft
13Augusto Fernandez01:30.110+1.0747327.4Soft / Soft
14Somkiat Chantra01:30.257+1.2219337.0Soft / Soft
Q2 · 15.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Marco Bezzecchi01:28.809—9340.3Soft / Soft
2Alex Marquez01:28.835+0.0269338.7Soft / Soft
3Fabio Di Giannantonio01:28.853+0.0448337.0Soft / Soft
4Raul Fernandez01:28.867+0.0589337.0Soft / Soft
5Pedro Acosta01:28.905+0.0969332.1Soft / Soft
6Fabio Quartararo01:28.978+0.1698328.9Soft / Soft
7Franco Morbidelli01:29.066+0.2578332.1Soft / Soft
8Jack Miller01:29.144+0.3359335.4Soft / Soft
9Fermin Aldeguer01:29.169+0.3609327.4Soft / Soft
10Joan Mir01:29.233+0.4249335.4Soft / Soft
11Johann Zarco01:29.351+0.5429335.4Soft / Soft
12Ai Ogura01:29.371+0.5629335.4Soft / Soft
Sprint · 15.11
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Alex Marquez19:37.4901213Hard / Soft1:30.202—11Soft
2Pedro Acosta+1.149913Hard / Soft1:30.240+0.04%11Soft
3Fabio Di Giannantonio+2.637713Hard / Soft1:30.257+0.06%11Soft
4Raul Fernandez+3.519613Soft / Soft1:30.290+0.10%11Soft
5Marco Bezzecchi+3.727513Soft / Soft1:30.294+0.10%11Soft
6Franco Morbidelli+6.349413Hard / Soft1:30.519+0.35%11Soft
7Fabio Quartararo+7.102313Hard / Soft1:30.741+0.60%11Soft
8Brad Binder+7.352213Hard / Soft1:30.619+0.46%11Soft
9Ai Ogura+7.685113Soft / Soft1:30.514+0.35%11Soft
10Johann Zarco+9.346013Soft / Medium1:30.681+0.53%11Medium
11Fermin Aldeguer+10.067013Hard / Soft1:30.743+0.60%11Soft
12Jack Miller+11.148013Hard / Soft1:30.707+0.56%11Soft
13Enea Bastianini+11.911013Hard / Soft1:30.781+0.64%11Soft
14Francesco Bagnaia+11.957013Hard / Soft1:30.870+0.74%10Soft
15Alex Rins+14.264013Hard / Soft1:31.039+0.93%11Soft
16Nicolo Bulega+14.951013Hard / Soft1:31.008+0.89%11Soft
17Miguel Oliveira+15.597013Hard / Soft1:31.066+0.96%11Soft
18Maverick Viñales+16.699013Hard / Soft1:31.072+0.97%11Soft
19Aleix Espargaro+16.885013Soft / Soft1:31.162+1.06%11Soft
20Augusto Fernandez+18.846013Soft / Medium1:31.290+1.21%11Medium
21Somkiat Chantra+23.028013Medium / Soft1:31.546+1.49%11Soft
22Jorge Martin+23.655013Hard / Medium1:30.834+0.70%9Medium
RetiredJoan Mir01Hard / Soft——
RetiredLuca Marini01Hard / Soft——
Warm Up · 16.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Fabio Quartararo01:30.111—6327.4Soft / Medium——
2Alex Marquez01:30.225+0.1147330.5Soft / Medium1:30.692+0.44%5Medium
3Raul Fernandez01:30.243+0.1327328.9Soft / Medium1:30.293—5Medium
4Marco Bezzecchi01:30.280+0.1697328.9Soft / Medium——
5Fabio Di Giannantonio01:30.324+0.2137333.7Soft / Medium1:30.982+0.76%5Medium
6Pedro Acosta01:30.328+0.2177335.4Medium / Medium1:30.857+0.63%5Medium
7Joan Mir01:30.349+0.2387333.7Soft / Medium1:31.364+1.19%5Medium
8Fermin Aldeguer01:30.404+0.2937324.3Soft / Medium1:30.481+0.21%5Medium
9Jack Miller01:30.420+0.3097328.9Soft / Medium1:30.444+0.17%5Medium
10Maverick Viñales01:30.491+0.3807335.4Soft / Medium1:30.564+0.30%5Medium
11Nicolo Bulega01:30.503+0.3927332.1Soft / Medium1:30.846+0.61%5Medium
12Miguel Oliveira01:30.538+0.4277330.5Soft / Medium1:30.601+0.34%5Medium
13Franco Morbidelli01:30.548+0.4376325.8Soft / Medium——
14Aleix Espargaro01:30.578+0.4677332.1Soft / Medium1:30.966+0.75%5Medium
15Luca Marini01:30.635+0.5247330.5Soft / Medium1:30.840+0.61%5Medium
16Francesco Bagnaia01:30.637+0.5267332.1Soft / Medium1:30.989+0.77%5Medium
17Jorge Martin01:30.654+0.5437332.1Soft / Medium1:32.203+2.12%5Medium
18Ai Ogura01:30.672+0.5617335.4Soft / Medium1:31.097+0.89%5Medium
19Augusto Fernandez01:30.839+0.7287327.4Soft / Soft1:31.166+0.97%5Soft
20Brad Binder01:30.969+0.8587335.4Soft / Medium1:31.236+1.04%5Medium
21Johann Zarco01:31.150+1.0397332.1Soft / Medium——
22Enea Bastianini01:31.267+1.1563333.7Soft / Medium——
23Somkiat Chantra01:31.441+1.3306330.5Soft / Medium——
24Alex Rins01:31.860+1.7497328.9Soft / Medium1:32.055+1.95%5Medium
Race · 16.11
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marco Bezzecchi40:52.4582527Hard / Medium1:30.749+0.11%25Medium
2Raul Fernandez+0.6862027Hard / Medium1:30.747+0.10%25Medium
3Fabio Di Giannantonio+3.7651627Hard / Medium1:30.787+0.15%25Medium
4Pedro Acosta+4.7491327Hard / Medium1:30.796+0.16%25Medium
5Fermin Aldeguer+8.0481127Hard / Medium1:30.908+0.28%25Medium
6Alex Marquez+8.1661027Hard / Medium1:31.096+0.49%25Medium
7Luca Marini+12.644927Hard / Medium1:30.933+0.31%25Medium
8Brad Binder+14.582827Hard / Medium1:31.122+0.52%25Medium
9Jack Miller+15.497727Hard / Medium1:31.005+0.39%25Medium
10Enea Bastianini+17.460627Hard / Medium1:31.292+0.70%24Medium
11Miguel Oliveira+19.304527Hard / Medium1:31.233+0.64%25Medium
12Johann Zarco+21.286427Hard / Medium1:31.241+0.65%25Medium
13Joan Mir+22.079327Hard / Medium1:31.326+0.74%25Medium
14Alex Rins+23.255227Hard / Medium1:31.274+0.68%25Medium
15Nicolo Bulega+26.144127Hard / Medium1:31.400+0.82%25Medium
16Augusto Fernandez+36.854027Hard / Medium1:31.857+1.33%25Medium
17Somkiat Chantra+39.136027Medium / Medium1:31.913+1.39%25Medium
RetiredAi Ogura06Hard / Medium1:30.654—4Medium
RetiredAleix Espargaro025Hard / Medium1:31.249+0.66%22Medium
RetiredFabio Quartararo023Hard / Medium1:31.115+0.51%21Medium
Out on lap 1Francesco Bagnaia00— / ———
RetiredFranco Morbidelli01— / ———
RetiredJorge Martin015Hard / Medium1:31.256+0.66%12Medium
RetiredMaverick Viñales023Hard / Medium1:31.243+0.65%21Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Somkiat Chantra1:31.476*—+0.221Medium4
Alex Rins1:35.032*+3.556+0.217Medium3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marco Bezzecchi129%60%74%83%15%5
Alex Marquez222%56%74%88%11%1
Fabio Di Giannantonio315%46%66%84%14%3
Raul Fernandez413%42%66%90%6%4
Pedro Acosta56%27%51%81%14%2
Fabio Quartararo65%21%42%78%13%7
Franco Morbidelli74%17%37%82%7%6
Jack Miller82%11%28%76%9%12
Fermin Aldeguer91%7%20%70%10%11
Joan Mir101%4%12%51%25%—
Johann Zarco111%3%9%46%22%10
Ai Ogura121%2%8%50%3%9
Luca Marini130%1%4%35%11%—
Aleix Espargaro140%1%3%22%22%19
Brad Binder150%1%2%20%18%8
Francesco Bagnaia160%1%2%17%12%14
Jorge Martin170%1%1%10%7%22
Miguel Oliveira180%0%1%7%12%17
Alex Rins190%0%1%4%9%15
Enea Bastianini200%0%0%3%12%13
Maverick Viñales210%0%0%2%8%18
Nicolo Bulega220%0%0%1%25%16
Augusto Fernandez230%0%0%1%17%20
Somkiat Chantra240%0%0%1%13%21

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marco Bezzecchi123%56%74%82%16%1
Alex Marquez228%60%71%77%22%6
Fabio Di Giannantonio318%53%73%83%16%3
Raul Fernandez410%37%60%78%20%2
Pedro Acosta515%46%67%81%18%4
Fabio Quartararo60%6%19%71%12%—
Franco Morbidelli74%20%46%78%16%—
Jack Miller81%7%21%64%25%9
Fermin Aldeguer90%3%13%60%19%5
Joan Mir101%2%10%47%37%13
Johann Zarco110%4%15%64%19%12
Ai Ogura121%5%17%63%22%—
Luca Marini130%0%3%36%8%7
Aleix Espargaro140%0%0%8%23%—
Brad Binder150%1%9%56%14%8
Francesco Bagnaia160%0%1%14%24%—
Jorge Martin170%0%0%14%21%—
Miguel Oliveira180%0%0%5%21%11
Alex Rins190%0%0%4%20%14
Enea Bastianini200%0%0%12%18%10
Maverick Viñales210%0%0%2%13%—
Nicolo Bulega220%0%0%3%17%15
Augusto Fernandez230%0%0%1%25%16
Somkiat Chantra240%0%0%0%10%17

What the sprint changed

C13b
RiderPodiumΔWin
Rising
Pedro Acosta30% → 46%+168% → 15%
Alex Marquez49% → 60%+1120% → 28%
Fabio Di Giannantonio45% → 53%+815% → 18%
Dropping
Fabio Quartararo24% → 6%−195% → 0%
Fermin Aldeguer8% → 3%−52% → 0%
Jack Miller12% → 7%−42% → 1%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Alex Marquez1:30.202—+0.356Soft11
Pedro Acosta1:30.240+0.038+0.448Soft11
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:30.257+0.055+0.320Soft11
Raul Fernandez1:30.290+0.088+0.667Soft11
Marco Bezzecchi1:30.294+0.092+0.553Soft11
Ai Ogura1:30.514+0.312+0.300Soft11
Franco Morbidelli1:30.519+0.317+0.512Soft11
Brad Binder1:30.619+0.417+0.327Soft11
Johann Zarco1:30.681+0.479+0.344Medium11
Jack Miller1:30.707+0.505+0.105Soft11
Fabio Quartararo1:30.741+0.539+0.275Soft11
Fermin Aldeguer1:30.743+0.541+0.884Soft11
Enea Bastianini1:30.781+0.579+0.319Soft11
Jorge Martin1:30.834+0.632+0.457Medium9
Francesco Bagnaia1:30.870+0.668+0.221Soft10
Nicolo Bulega1:31.008+0.806—Soft11
Alex Rins1:31.039+0.837+0.217Soft11
Miguel Oliveira1:31.066+0.864+0.193Soft11
Maverick Viñales1:31.072+0.870+0.292Soft11
Aleix Espargaro1:31.162+0.960+0.209Soft11
Augusto Fernandez1:31.290+1.088+0.437Medium11
Somkiat Chantra1:31.546+1.344+0.221Soft11

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · BezzecchiS2 · R. FernandezS3 · AcostaS4 · A. Marquez

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,007 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

91/100
Position index
43%
Pole wins
71%
Front row on the podium
0.83
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

36
Overtakes
3
Lead changes
3 leaders
14/27
Laps led by the winner
Francesco Bagnaia
0.176 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Franco Morbidelli, from P19 to P7.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Pol Espargaro (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1

2023 edition

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Jack Miller1:30.554—+0.105Medium16
Brad Binder1:30.659+0.105+0.327Medium25
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:30.746+0.192+0.320Medium24
Johann Zarco1:30.794+0.240+0.344Medium25
Francesco Bagnaia1:30.836+0.282+0.221Medium25
Maverick Viñales1:30.862+0.308+0.292Soft25
Franco Morbidelli1:30.902+0.348+0.512Medium25
Enea Bastianini1:30.955+0.401+0.319Medium7
Raul Fernandez1:30.960+0.406+0.667Medium25
Aleix Espargaro1:31.003+0.449+0.209Medium25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

  • 2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Alex RinsSuzuki
  • 2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
  • 2017Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 24% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20257/2429%
20237/2133%
20227/2429%
20212/2010%
20203/2114%
20197/2232%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Medium95%+0.60%+0.010137.3
Soft5%+0.50%+0.0630010.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.