Round 22 of 22 Aftermath

Valencia Grand Prix 2025

4.005 m · 27 laps · since 1999

14.11 – 16.11.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	40:52.458	25
2	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+0.686	20
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+3.765	16
4	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+4.749	13
5	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+8.048	11
6	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+8.166	10
7	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+12.644	9
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+14.582	8
9	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+15.497	7
10	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+17.460	6
11	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+19.304	5
12	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+21.286	4
13	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+22.079	3
14	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+23.255	2
15	Nicolo Bulega	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+26.144	1
16	Augusto Fernandez	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+36.854	0
17	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+39.136	0
DNF	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Honda	Honda HRC Test Team	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	19:37.490	12
2	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+1.149	9
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+2.637	7
4	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+3.519	6
5	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+3.727	5
6	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+6.349	4
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+7.102	3
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+7.352	2
9	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+7.685	1
10	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+9.346	0
11	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+10.067	0
12	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+11.148	0
13	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+11.911	0
14	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+11.957	0
15	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+14.264	0
16	Nicolo Bulega	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+14.951	0
17	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+15.597	0
18	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+16.699	0
19	Aleix Espargaro	Honda	Honda HRC Test Team	+16.885	0
20	Augusto Fernandez	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+18.846	0
21	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+23.028	0
22	Jorge Martin	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+23.655	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0
DNF	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Marco Bezzecchi · 29%	Alex Marquez · 22% · from P2	0.87 / 0.87	2.3 / 2.4
Race (after the grid)	Marco Bezzecchi · 32% ✓	Marco Bezzecchi · 32% · from P1	0.87 / 0.87	2.4 / 2.3
Race (after the sprint)	Alex Marquez · 28%	Marco Bezzecchi · 23% · from P1	0.84 / 0.87	2.4 / 2.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Ai Ogura	1:30.654	—	+0.300	Medium	4
Raul Fernandez	1:30.747	+0.093	+0.667	Medium	25
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.749	+0.095	+0.553	Medium	25
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:30.787	+0.133	+0.320	Medium	25
Pedro Acosta	1:30.796	+0.142	+0.448	Medium	25
Fermin Aldeguer	1:30.908	+0.254	+0.884	Medium	25
Luca Marini	1:30.933	+0.279	+0.308	Medium	25
Jack Miller	1:31.005	+0.351	+0.105	Medium	25
Alex Marquez	1:31.096	+0.442	+0.356	Medium	25
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.115	+0.461	+0.275	Medium	21
Brad Binder	1:31.122	+0.468	+0.327	Medium	25
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.233	+0.579	+0.193	Medium	25
Johann Zarco	1:31.241	+0.587	+0.344	Medium	25
Maverick Viñales	1:31.243	+0.589	+0.292	Medium	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.249	+0.595	+0.209	Medium	22
Jorge Martin	1:31.256	+0.602	+0.457	Medium	12
Alex Rins	1:31.274	+0.620	+0.217	Medium	25
Enea Bastianini	1:31.292	+0.638	+0.319	Medium	24
Joan Mir	1:31.326	+0.672	+0.562	Medium	25
Nicolo Bulega	1:31.400	+0.746	—	Medium	25
Augusto Fernandez	1:31.857	+1.203	+0.437	Medium	25
Somkiat Chantra	1:31.913	+1.259	+0.221	Medium	25

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Marco Bezzecchi

0.686 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P20 to P10.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Luca Marini (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

13/13

Laps led by the winner

Alex Marquez

1.149 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P15 to P8.

Longest battle: Fabio Di Giannantonio vs Raul Fernandez (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:04:30	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:04:30	Luca Marini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:08:32	Jack Miller	Position penalty	To drop 3 position - causing contact
Sprint	15:15:05	Jack Miller	Long lap	Long lap penalty - failed to drop positions
Sprint	15:21:02	Jack Miller	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETE
Race	14:01:55	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out on warm up lap
Race	14:02:54	Franco Morbidelli	Pit-lane start	Starting from pit lane
Race	14:03:05	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:04:00	Joan Mir	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:04:00	Jorge Martin	Long lap	Double long lap penalty
Race	14:04:59	Johann Zarco	Long lap	Long lap penalty - causing a crash
Race	14:05:00	Franco Morbidelli	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:05:52	Jorge Martin	Long lap	Double long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race	14:07:02	Jorge Martin	Long lap	Double long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race	14:08:31	Joan Mir	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETE
Race	14:08:46	Johann Zarco	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETE
Race	14:11:57	Ai Ogura	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:25:49	Jorge Martin	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:37:57	Maverick Viñales	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:38:26	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:41:10	Aleix Espargaro	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards double long lap penalty for rider #1 & long lap penalty for rider #36

Sprint: 2 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marco Bezzecchi (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Enea Bastianini	20	12	+8
Somkiat Chantra	24	18	+6
Maverick Viñales	21	15	+6
Franco Morbidelli	7	23	−16
Fabio Quartararo	6	11	−5
Ai Ogura	12	17	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Enea Bastianini	20→10	+5.0
Brad Binder	15→8	+3.8
Luca Marini	13→7	+3.5
Alex Marquez	2→6	−2.5
Johann Zarco	11→12	−2.7
Joan Mir	10→13	−4.4

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.58%	+0.041	1	3	9.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

19.0 °C

Air

max 19.3 °C

53%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

21 km/h

Wind

gusts 39 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 14.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:30.382	—	21	332.1	Medium / Medium	1:31.590	+0.32%	10	Medium
2	Ai Ogura	01:30.705	+0.323	21	328.9	Soft / Medium	1:32.018	+0.79%	10	Medium
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.707	+0.325	18	333.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
4	Raul Fernandez	01:30.800	+0.418	19	327.4	Soft / Medium	1:32.211	+1.00%	5	Medium
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.860	+0.478	17	330.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
6	Alex Marquez	01:30.884	+0.502	19	330.5	Soft / Medium	1:32.182	+0.97%	4	Medium
7	Joan Mir	01:30.926	+0.544	19	333.7	Medium / Medium	1:31.562	+0.29%	5	Medium
8	Pedro Acosta	01:30.998	+0.616	21	333.7	Medium / Medium	1:31.483	+0.20%	11	Medium
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.033	+0.651	20	333.7	Soft / Medium	1:31.297	—	5	Medium
10	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.035	+0.653	21	327.4	Soft / Medium	1:31.917	+0.68%	7	Medium
11	Fermin Aldeguer	01:31.113	+0.731	14	327.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
12	Luca Marini	01:31.146	+0.764	21	338.7	Soft / Medium	1:31.637	+0.37%	10	Medium
13	Johann Zarco	01:31.171	+0.789	20	332.1	Soft / Medium	1:32.046	+0.82%	4	Medium
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.204	+0.822	18	327.4	Medium / Medium	1:31.324	+0.03%	6	Medium
15	Alex Rins	01:31.301	+0.919	20	332.1	Medium / Medium	1:31.980	+0.75%	6	Medium
16	Brad Binder	01:31.319	+0.937	19	337.0	Soft / Medium	1:31.793	+0.54%	5	Medium
17	Enea Bastianini	01:31.326	+0.944	20	332.1	Soft / Medium	1:31.659	+0.40%	11	Medium
18	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.364	+0.982	22	335.4	Medium / Medium	1:32.506	+1.32%	5	Medium
19	Maverick Viñales	01:31.430	+1.048	19	328.9	Soft / Medium	1:31.735	+0.48%	5	Medium
20	Somkiat Chantra	01:31.454	+1.072	21	328.9	Medium / Medium	1:32.814	+1.66%	9	Medium
21	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.528	+1.146	18	335.4	Soft / Medium	1:31.952	+0.72%	10	Medium
22	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.715	+1.333	18	330.5	Soft / Medium	1:32.256	+1.05%	5	Medium
23	Nicolo Bulega	01:31.766	+1.384	20	332.1	Hard / Medium	1:32.278	+1.08%	5	Medium
24	Jorge Martin	01:31.923	+1.541	18	332.1	Soft / Medium	1:32.531	+1.35%	5	Medium

Practice · 14.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Pedro Acosta	01:29.240	—	26	340.3	Soft / Soft	1:30.379	—	13	Soft
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.293	+0.053	25	338.7	Soft / Soft	1:30.979	+0.66%	11	Soft
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.425	+0.185	21	330.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Alex Marquez	01:29.473	+0.233	25	335.4	Hard / Soft	1:30.531	+0.17%	5	Medium
5	Ai Ogura	01:29.555	+0.315	23	333.7	Soft / Soft	1:30.552	+0.19%	11	Medium
6	Jack Miller	01:29.556	+0.316	26	337.0	Hard / Soft	1:30.994	+0.68%	6	Soft
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.593	+0.353	23	333.7	Soft / Soft	1:30.772	+0.44%	5	Medium
8	Fermin Aldeguer	01:29.597	+0.357	26	330.5	Soft / Soft	1:30.607	+0.25%	5	Medium
9	Joan Mir	01:29.634	+0.394	25	338.7	Hard / Soft	1:30.854	+0.53%	5	Medium
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.673	+0.433	23	332.1	Hard / Soft	1:30.495	+0.13%	7	Medium
11	Brad Binder	01:29.729	+0.489	25	340.3	Soft / Soft	1:31.291	+1.01%	12	Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	01:29.806	+0.566	26	337.0	Soft / Soft	1:30.794	+0.46%	12	Medium
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.832	+0.592	22	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:30.749	+0.41%	5	Soft
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.833	+0.593	23	330.5	Hard / Soft	1:30.601	+0.25%	5	Soft
15	Johann Zarco	01:29.891	+0.651	25	338.7	Soft / Soft	1:30.671	+0.32%	5	Medium
16	Luca Marini	01:29.896	+0.656	27	338.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Alex Rins	01:29.999	+0.759	22	337.0	Soft / Soft	1:31.104	+0.80%	6	Medium
18	Maverick Viñales	01:30.147	+0.907	25	337.0	Soft / Soft	1:31.316	+1.04%	6	Medium
19	Enea Bastianini	01:30.237	+0.997	23	337.0	Soft / Soft	1:31.017	+0.71%	6	Medium
20	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.267	+1.027	25	325.8	Soft / Soft	1:31.844	+1.62%	6	Soft
21	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.304	+1.064	28	333.7	Soft / Soft	1:31.341	+1.06%	13	Soft
22	Jorge Martin	01:30.404	+1.164	23	335.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
23	Somkiat Chantra	01:30.529	+1.289	24	337.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Nicolo Bulega	01:30.552	+1.312	28	333.7	Hard / Soft	1:31.510	+1.25%	5	Soft

FP2 · 15.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Ai Ogura	01:29.897	—	17	332.1	Soft / Soft	1:31.170	+0.92%	12	Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.996	+0.099	14	335.4	Soft / Medium	1:30.700	+0.40%	6	Soft
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.104	+0.207	16	333.7	Soft / Medium	1:30.341	—	10	Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.186	+0.289	15	330.5	Soft / Soft	1:30.569	+0.25%	10	Soft
5	Pedro Acosta	01:30.240	+0.343	14	333.7	Soft / Medium	1:30.622	+0.31%	6	Soft
6	Alex Marquez	01:30.296	+0.399	14	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:30.966	+0.69%	5	Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.313	+0.416	15	327.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.940	+1.77%	7	Soft
8	Fermin Aldeguer	01:30.371	+0.474	12	328.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.372	+0.475	12	337.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Raul Fernandez	01:30.441	+0.544	12	327.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.012	+0.74%	5	Medium
11	Jorge Martin	01:30.520	+0.623	13	333.7	Soft / Medium	1:31.325	+1.09%	5	Medium
12	Joan Mir	01:30.542	+0.645	15	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:30.936	+0.66%	10	Soft
13	Jack Miller	01:30.579	+0.682	15	335.4	Soft / Medium	1:30.852	+0.57%	9	Soft
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.580	+0.683	14	338.7	Soft / Soft	1:31.301	+1.06%	5	Soft
15	Enea Bastianini	01:30.776	+0.879	13	340.3	Soft / Soft	1:31.377	+1.15%	5	Soft
16	Maverick Viñales	01:30.809	+0.912	13	332.1	Soft / Soft	1:31.273	+1.03%	7	Soft
17	Johann Zarco	01:30.810	+0.913	15	338.7	Soft / Medium	1:31.089	+0.83%	11	Medium
18	Nicolo Bulega	01:30.851	+0.954	17	332.1	Soft / Soft	1:31.359	+1.13%	13	Soft
19	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.876	+0.979	16	324.3	Soft / Soft	1:31.338	+1.10%	11	Soft
20	Luca Marini	01:30.938	+1.041	12	333.7	Soft / Soft	1:31.728	+1.54%	5	Soft
21	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.975	+1.078	14	332.1	Soft / Soft	1:31.126	+0.87%	10	Soft
22	Brad Binder	01:31.049	+1.152	15	333.7	Soft / Soft	1:31.416	+1.19%	11	Soft
23	Alex Rins	01:31.252	+1.355	12	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.488	+1.27%	4	Soft
24	Somkiat Chantra	01:31.412	+1.515	13	330.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.091	+1.94%	5	Soft

Q1 · 15.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Raul Fernandez	01:29.036	—	9	330.5	Soft / Soft
2	Johann Zarco	01:29.460	+0.424	8	338.7	Soft / Soft
3	Luca Marini	01:29.520	+0.484	8	335.4	Soft / Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.526	+0.490	8	330.5	Soft / Soft
5	Brad Binder	01:29.561	+0.525	8	340.3	Soft / Soft
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.584	+0.548	6	333.7	Soft / Soft
7	Jorge Martin	01:29.630	+0.594	8	328.9	Soft / Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:29.657	+0.621	8	332.1	Soft / Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:29.907	+0.871	8	335.4	Soft / Soft
10	Enea Bastianini	01:29.948	+0.912	8	332.1	Soft / Soft
11	Maverick Viñales	01:29.987	+0.951	7	333.7	Soft / Soft
12	Nicolo Bulega	01:30.045	+1.009	9	335.4	Soft / Soft
13	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.110	+1.074	7	327.4	Soft / Soft
14	Somkiat Chantra	01:30.257	+1.221	9	337.0	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 15.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:28.809	—	9	340.3	Soft / Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:28.835	+0.026	9	338.7	Soft / Soft
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:28.853	+0.044	8	337.0	Soft / Soft
4	Raul Fernandez	01:28.867	+0.058	9	337.0	Soft / Soft
5	Pedro Acosta	01:28.905	+0.096	9	332.1	Soft / Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:28.978	+0.169	8	328.9	Soft / Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.066	+0.257	8	332.1	Soft / Soft
8	Jack Miller	01:29.144	+0.335	9	335.4	Soft / Soft
9	Fermin Aldeguer	01:29.169	+0.360	9	327.4	Soft / Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:29.233	+0.424	9	335.4	Soft / Soft
11	Johann Zarco	01:29.351	+0.542	9	335.4	Soft / Soft
12	Ai Ogura	01:29.371	+0.562	9	335.4	Soft / Soft

Sprint · 15.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	19:37.490	12	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.202	—	11	Soft
2	Pedro Acosta	+1.149	9	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.240	+0.04%	11	Soft
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+2.637	7	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.257	+0.06%	11	Soft
4	Raul Fernandez	+3.519	6	13	Soft / Soft	1:30.290	+0.10%	11	Soft
5	Marco Bezzecchi	+3.727	5	13	Soft / Soft	1:30.294	+0.10%	11	Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	+6.349	4	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.519	+0.35%	11	Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	+7.102	3	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.741	+0.60%	11	Soft
8	Brad Binder	+7.352	2	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.619	+0.46%	11	Soft
9	Ai Ogura	+7.685	1	13	Soft / Soft	1:30.514	+0.35%	11	Soft
10	Johann Zarco	+9.346	0	13	Soft / Medium	1:30.681	+0.53%	11	Medium
11	Fermin Aldeguer	+10.067	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.743	+0.60%	11	Soft
12	Jack Miller	+11.148	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.707	+0.56%	11	Soft
13	Enea Bastianini	+11.911	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.781	+0.64%	11	Soft
14	Francesco Bagnaia	+11.957	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.870	+0.74%	10	Soft
15	Alex Rins	+14.264	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.039	+0.93%	11	Soft
16	Nicolo Bulega	+14.951	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.008	+0.89%	11	Soft
17	Miguel Oliveira	+15.597	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.066	+0.96%	11	Soft
18	Maverick Viñales	+16.699	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.072	+0.97%	11	Soft
19	Aleix Espargaro	+16.885	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:31.162	+1.06%	11	Soft
20	Augusto Fernandez	+18.846	0	13	Soft / Medium	1:31.290	+1.21%	11	Medium
21	Somkiat Chantra	+23.028	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.546	+1.49%	11	Soft
22	Jorge Martin	+23.655	0	13	Hard / Medium	1:30.834	+0.70%	9	Medium
Retired	Joan Mir		0	1	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Luca Marini		0	1	Hard / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 16.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.111	—	6	327.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Alex Marquez	01:30.225	+0.114	7	330.5	Soft / Medium	1:30.692	+0.44%	5	Medium
3	Raul Fernandez	01:30.243	+0.132	7	328.9	Soft / Medium	1:30.293	—	5	Medium
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.280	+0.169	7	328.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.324	+0.213	7	333.7	Soft / Medium	1:30.982	+0.76%	5	Medium
6	Pedro Acosta	01:30.328	+0.217	7	335.4	Medium / Medium	1:30.857	+0.63%	5	Medium
7	Joan Mir	01:30.349	+0.238	7	333.7	Soft / Medium	1:31.364	+1.19%	5	Medium
8	Fermin Aldeguer	01:30.404	+0.293	7	324.3	Soft / Medium	1:30.481	+0.21%	5	Medium
9	Jack Miller	01:30.420	+0.309	7	328.9	Soft / Medium	1:30.444	+0.17%	5	Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	01:30.491	+0.380	7	335.4	Soft / Medium	1:30.564	+0.30%	5	Medium
11	Nicolo Bulega	01:30.503	+0.392	7	332.1	Soft / Medium	1:30.846	+0.61%	5	Medium
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.538	+0.427	7	330.5	Soft / Medium	1:30.601	+0.34%	5	Medium
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.548	+0.437	6	325.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.578	+0.467	7	332.1	Soft / Medium	1:30.966	+0.75%	5	Medium
15	Luca Marini	01:30.635	+0.524	7	330.5	Soft / Medium	1:30.840	+0.61%	5	Medium
16	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.637	+0.526	7	332.1	Soft / Medium	1:30.989	+0.77%	5	Medium
17	Jorge Martin	01:30.654	+0.543	7	332.1	Soft / Medium	1:32.203	+2.12%	5	Medium
18	Ai Ogura	01:30.672	+0.561	7	335.4	Soft / Medium	1:31.097	+0.89%	5	Medium
19	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.839	+0.728	7	327.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.166	+0.97%	5	Soft
20	Brad Binder	01:30.969	+0.858	7	335.4	Soft / Medium	1:31.236	+1.04%	5	Medium
21	Johann Zarco	01:31.150	+1.039	7	332.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Enea Bastianini	01:31.267	+1.156	3	333.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
23	Somkiat Chantra	01:31.441	+1.330	6	330.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
24	Alex Rins	01:31.860	+1.749	7	328.9	Soft / Medium	1:32.055	+1.95%	5	Medium

Race · 16.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	40:52.458	25	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.749	+0.11%	25	Medium
2	Raul Fernandez	+0.686	20	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.747	+0.10%	25	Medium
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+3.765	16	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.787	+0.15%	25	Medium
4	Pedro Acosta	+4.749	13	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.796	+0.16%	25	Medium
5	Fermin Aldeguer	+8.048	11	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.908	+0.28%	25	Medium
6	Alex Marquez	+8.166	10	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.096	+0.49%	25	Medium
7	Luca Marini	+12.644	9	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.933	+0.31%	25	Medium
8	Brad Binder	+14.582	8	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.122	+0.52%	25	Medium
9	Jack Miller	+15.497	7	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.005	+0.39%	25	Medium
10	Enea Bastianini	+17.460	6	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.292	+0.70%	24	Medium
11	Miguel Oliveira	+19.304	5	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.233	+0.64%	25	Medium
12	Johann Zarco	+21.286	4	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.241	+0.65%	25	Medium
13	Joan Mir	+22.079	3	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.326	+0.74%	25	Medium
14	Alex Rins	+23.255	2	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.274	+0.68%	25	Medium
15	Nicolo Bulega	+26.144	1	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.400	+0.82%	25	Medium
16	Augusto Fernandez	+36.854	0	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.857	+1.33%	25	Medium
17	Somkiat Chantra	+39.136	0	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.913	+1.39%	25	Medium
Retired	Ai Ogura		0	6	Hard / Medium	1:30.654	—	4	Medium
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	25	Hard / Medium	1:31.249	+0.66%	22	Medium
Retired	Fabio Quartararo		0	23	Hard / Medium	1:31.115	+0.51%	21	Medium
Out on lap 1	Francesco Bagnaia		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	1	— / —	—			—
Retired	Jorge Martin		0	15	Hard / Medium	1:31.256	+0.66%	12	Medium
Retired	Maverick Viñales		0	23	Hard / Medium	1:31.243	+0.65%	21	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Somkiat Chantra	1:31.476*	—	+0.221	Medium	4
Alex Rins	1:35.032*	+3.556	+0.217	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Raul Fernandez	57%	1 ✓
2	Aleix Espargaro	43%	4
3	Francesco Bagnaia	29%	6
4	Johann Zarco	21%	2 ✓
5	Brad Binder	19%	5
6	Enea Bastianini	10%	10
7	Maverick Viñales	7%	11
8	Luca Marini	4%	3
9	Jorge Martin	3%	7
10	Augusto Fernandez	3%	13
11	Alex Rins	4%	9
12	Miguel Oliveira	2%	8
13	Nicolo Bulega	1%	12
14	Somkiat Chantra	0%	14

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marco Bezzecchi	38%	65%	88%	1
2	Pedro Acosta	21%	53%	81%	5
3	Franco Morbidelli	14%	45%	75%	7
4	Ai Ogura	6%	32%	67%	12
5	Alex Marquez	4%	26%	54%	2
6	Fermin Aldeguer	6%	22%	55%	9
7	Fabio Quartararo	1%	13%	41%	6
8	Jack Miller	3%	15%	38%	8
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	3%	8%	30%	3
10	Joan Mir	2%	8%	25%	10
11	Raul Fernandez	2%	10%	29%	4
12	Johann Zarco	1%	4%	19%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	29%	60%	74%	83%	15%	5
Alex Marquez	2	22%	56%	74%	88%	11%	1
Fabio Di Giannantonio	3	15%	46%	66%	84%	14%	3
Raul Fernandez	4	13%	42%	66%	90%	6%	4
Pedro Acosta	5	6%	27%	51%	81%	14%	2
Fabio Quartararo	6	5%	21%	42%	78%	13%	7
Franco Morbidelli	7	4%	17%	37%	82%	7%	6
Jack Miller	8	2%	11%	28%	76%	9%	12
Fermin Aldeguer	9	1%	7%	20%	70%	10%	11
Joan Mir	10	1%	4%	12%	51%	25%	—
Johann Zarco	11	1%	3%	9%	46%	22%	10
Ai Ogura	12	1%	2%	8%	50%	3%	9
Luca Marini	13	0%	1%	4%	35%	11%	—
Aleix Espargaro	14	0%	1%	3%	22%	22%	19
Brad Binder	15	0%	1%	2%	20%	18%	8
Francesco Bagnaia	16	0%	1%	2%	17%	12%	14
Jorge Martin	17	0%	1%	1%	10%	7%	22
Miguel Oliveira	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	12%	17
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	1%	4%	9%	15
Enea Bastianini	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	12%	13
Maverick Viñales	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	8%	18
Nicolo Bulega	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	25%	16
Augusto Fernandez	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	17%	20
Somkiat Chantra	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	13%	21

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	23%	56%	74%	82%	16%	1
Alex Marquez	2	28%	60%	71%	77%	22%	6
Fabio Di Giannantonio	3	18%	53%	73%	83%	16%	3
Raul Fernandez	4	10%	37%	60%	78%	20%	2
Pedro Acosta	5	15%	46%	67%	81%	18%	4
Fabio Quartararo	6	0%	6%	19%	71%	12%	—
Franco Morbidelli	7	4%	20%	46%	78%	16%	—
Jack Miller	8	1%	7%	21%	64%	25%	9
Fermin Aldeguer	9	0%	3%	13%	60%	19%	5
Joan Mir	10	1%	2%	10%	47%	37%	13
Johann Zarco	11	0%	4%	15%	64%	19%	12
Ai Ogura	12	1%	5%	17%	63%	22%	—
Luca Marini	13	0%	0%	3%	36%	8%	7
Aleix Espargaro	14	0%	0%	0%	8%	23%	—
Brad Binder	15	0%	1%	9%	56%	14%	8
Francesco Bagnaia	16	0%	0%	1%	14%	24%	—
Jorge Martin	17	0%	0%	0%	14%	21%	—
Miguel Oliveira	18	0%	0%	0%	5%	21%	11
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	0%	4%	20%	14
Enea Bastianini	20	0%	0%	0%	12%	18%	10
Maverick Viñales	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	13%	—
Nicolo Bulega	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	17%	15
Augusto Fernandez	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	25%	16
Somkiat Chantra	24	0%	0%	0%	0%	10%	17

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Pedro Acosta	30% → 46%	+16	8% → 15%
Alex Marquez	49% → 60%	+11	20% → 28%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	45% → 53%	+8	15% → 18%
Dropping
Fabio Quartararo	24% → 6%	−19	5% → 0%
Fermin Aldeguer	8% → 3%	−5	2% → 0%
Jack Miller	12% → 7%	−4	2% → 1%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	1:30.202	—	+0.356	Soft	11
Pedro Acosta	1:30.240	+0.038	+0.448	Soft	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:30.257	+0.055	+0.320	Soft	11
Raul Fernandez	1:30.290	+0.088	+0.667	Soft	11
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.294	+0.092	+0.553	Soft	11
Ai Ogura	1:30.514	+0.312	+0.300	Soft	11
Franco Morbidelli	1:30.519	+0.317	+0.512	Soft	11
Brad Binder	1:30.619	+0.417	+0.327	Soft	11
Johann Zarco	1:30.681	+0.479	+0.344	Medium	11
Jack Miller	1:30.707	+0.505	+0.105	Soft	11
Fabio Quartararo	1:30.741	+0.539	+0.275	Soft	11
Fermin Aldeguer	1:30.743	+0.541	+0.884	Soft	11
Enea Bastianini	1:30.781	+0.579	+0.319	Soft	11
Jorge Martin	1:30.834	+0.632	+0.457	Medium	9
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.870	+0.668	+0.221	Soft	10
Nicolo Bulega	1:31.008	+0.806	—	Soft	11
Alex Rins	1:31.039	+0.837	+0.217	Soft	11
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.066	+0.864	+0.193	Soft	11
Maverick Viñales	1:31.072	+0.870	+0.292	Soft	11
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.162	+0.960	+0.209	Soft	11
Augusto Fernandez	1:31.290	+1.088	+0.437	Medium	11
Somkiat Chantra	1:31.546	+1.344	+0.221	Soft	11

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,007 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.41%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Augusto Fernandez +0.33%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Alex Marquez +0.47%
S2	Raul Fernandez +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.31%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.34%	Raul Fernandez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.35%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%
S3	Augusto Fernandez +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Brad Binder +0.39%
S4	Brad Binder +0.05%	Johann Zarco +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.02%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%	Brad Binder +0.25%
S2	Jack Miller +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%
S3	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.11%	Johann Zarco +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Brad Binder +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S2	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.16%	Joan Mir +0.28%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Johann Zarco +0.22%	Brad Binder +0.29%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.37%	Franco Morbidelli +0.40%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Pol Espargaro +0.35%	Miguel Oliveira +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.39%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Alex Rins +0.01%	Andrea Iannone +0.42%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.36%	Pol Espargaro +0.51%	Michele Pirro +0.58%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.52%	Aleix Espargaro +0.83%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.85%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.19%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.37%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

91/100

Position index

43%

Pole wins

71%

Front row on the podium

0.83

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	545	—
2	Alex Marquez	445	−100
3	Marco Bezzecchi	323	−222
4	Francesco Bagnaia	288	−257
5	Pedro Acosta	285	−260
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	239	−306

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

14/27

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.176 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Franco Morbidelli, from P19 to P7.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Pol Espargaro (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jack Miller	1:30.554	—	+0.105	Medium	16
Brad Binder	1:30.659	+0.105	+0.327	Medium	25
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:30.746	+0.192	+0.320	Medium	24
Johann Zarco	1:30.794	+0.240	+0.344	Medium	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.836	+0.282	+0.221	Medium	25
Maverick Viñales	1:30.862	+0.308	+0.292	Soft	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:30.902	+0.348	+0.512	Medium	25
Enea Bastianini	1:30.955	+0.401	+0.319	Medium	7
Raul Fernandez	1:30.960	+0.406	+0.667	Medium	25
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.003	+0.449	+0.209	Medium	25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 24% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	7/24	29%
2023	7/21	33%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	2/20	10%
2020	3/21	14%
2019	7/22	32%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	95%	+0.60%	+0.010	1	3	7.3
Soft	5%	+0.50%	+0.063	0	0	10.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.