Round 15 of 22 Aftermath

Catalan Grand Prix 2025

4.655 m · 25 laps · since 1991

05.09 – 07.09.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	40:14.093	25
2	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+1.740	20
3	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+5.562	16
4	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+13.373	13
5	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+14.409	11
6	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+15.055	10
7	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+16.048	9
8	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+16.372	8
9	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+16.937	7
10	Jorge Martin	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+18.492	6
11	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+19.489	5
12	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+20.159	4
13	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+22.792	3
14	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+24.351	2
15	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+24.592	1
16	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+37.393	0
17	Aleix Espargaro	Honda	Honda HRC Test Team	+43.202	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Retired	0
DNF	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	19:58.946	12
2	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+1.299	9
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+3.653	7
4	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+5.868	6
5	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+5.913	5
6	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+5.943	4
7	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+7.017	3
8	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+7.346	2
9	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+8.488	1
10	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+8.578	0
11	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+9.788	0
12	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+10.165	0
13	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+11.593	0
14	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+14.463	0
15	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+15.936	0
16	Aleix Espargaro	Honda	Honda HRC Test Team	+16.909	0
17	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+17.040	0
18	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+22.439	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Alex Marquez · 32%	Marc Marquez · 15% · from P3	0.94 / 0.94	2.1 / 1.9
Race (after the grid)	Alex Marquez · 25% ✓	Alex Marquez · 25% · from P1	0.76 / 0.76	2.9 / 2.8
Race (after the sprint)	Alex Marquez · 39% ✓	Alex Marquez · 39% · from P1	0.77 / 0.76	3.0 / 2.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Brad Binder	1:40.309	—	+0.327	Medium	4
Marc Marquez	1:40.328	+0.019	+0.210	Medium	22
Alex Marquez	1:40.344	+0.035	+0.356	Medium	20
Enea Bastianini	1:40.352	+0.043	+0.319	Medium	22
Johann Zarco	1:40.475	+0.166	+0.344	Medium	8
Pedro Acosta	1:40.586	+0.277	+0.448	Soft	22
Alex Rins	1:40.801	+0.492	+0.217	Medium	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:40.813	+0.504	+0.320	Medium	9
Luca Marini	1:40.834	+0.525	+0.308	Medium	22
Joan Mir	1:40.930	+0.621	+0.562	Medium	22
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.982	+0.673	+0.221	Medium	22
Fabio Quartararo	1:40.994	+0.685	+0.275	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:40.995	+0.686	+0.105	Medium	22
Miguel Oliveira	1:41.006	+0.697	+0.193	Medium	22
Ai Ogura	1:41.036	+0.727	+0.300	Medium	22
Franco Morbidelli	1:41.036	+0.727	+0.512	Medium	18
Raul Fernandez	1:41.061	+0.752	+0.667	Medium	22
Jorge Martin	1:41.065	+0.756	+0.457	Medium	20
Fermin Aldeguer	1:41.116	+0.807	+0.884	Medium	21
Maverick Viñales	1:41.166	+0.857	+0.292	Medium	21
Lorenzo Savadori	1:41.516	+1.207	+0.781	Medium	15
Somkiat Chantra	1:41.824	+1.515	+0.221	Medium	22
Aleix Espargaro	1:42.049	+1.740	+0.209	Medium	21

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

21/24

Laps led by the winner

Alex Marquez

1.740 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Francesco Bagnaia, from P21 to P7.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Marc Marquez (21 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/12

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.299 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Francesco Bagnaia, from P21 to P14.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Francesco Bagnaia (7 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:13:56	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:13:56	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:13:58	Lorenzo Savadori	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue
Sprint	15:14:52	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:14:52	Fermin Aldeguer	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:16:53	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:04:05	Fermin Aldeguer	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:04:06	Lorenzo Savadori	Long lap	Double long lap penalty
Race	14:04:10	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:04:26	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:04:26	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:06:05	Fermin Aldeguer	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETE
Race	14:06:35	Lorenzo Savadori	Long lap	Double long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race	14:07:12	Lorenzo Savadori	Long lap	Double long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race	14:09:26	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETE
Race	14:13:32	Brad Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:20:33	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:23:21	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:27:40	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:36:11	Lorenzo Savadori	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:37:28	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:41:45	Franco Morbidelli	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards long lap penalty for riders #21 & #54, double long lap penalty for rider #32 & grid penalty for rider #36

Sprint: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Francesco Bagnaia	21	12	+9
Enea Bastianini	9	5	+4
Luca Marini	10	6	+4
Jack Miller	14	24	−10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	6	11	−5
Franco Morbidelli	4	9	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Francesco Bagnaia	21→7	+8.7
Enea Bastianini	9→3	+5.0
Miguel Oliveira	16→9	+3.5
Jack Miller	14→14	−2.8
Aleix Espargaro	18→17	−3.2
Fermin Aldeguer	13→15	−4.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	96%	+0.68%	+0.058	1	3	9.3
Soft	4%	+0.28%	+0.106	0	0	4.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

27.9 °C

Air

max 28.6 °C

60%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

4 km/h

Wind

gusts 17 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 05.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Pedro Acosta	01:38.979	—	18	354.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Johann Zarco	01:39.074	+0.095	20	349.5	Soft / Medium	1:40.584	+0.56%	6	Medium
3	Marc Marquez	01:39.198	+0.219	19	351.7	Soft / Medium	1:40.436	+0.41%	5	Medium
4	Maverick Viñales	01:39.368	+0.389	14	347.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Alex Marquez	01:39.384	+0.405	19	347.2	Soft / Medium	1:40.025	—	5	Medium
6	Luca Marini	01:39.419	+0.440	18	348.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
7	Brad Binder	01:39.494	+0.515	21	354.0	Soft / Medium	1:40.590	+0.57%	12	Medium
8	Marco Bezzecchi	01:39.503	+0.524	20	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:40.648	+0.62%	10	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.552	+0.573	18	349.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
10	Enea Bastianini	01:39.605	+0.626	17	350.6	Soft / Medium	1:40.135	+0.11%	7	Medium
11	Jack Miller	01:39.744	+0.765	16	348.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
12	Raul Fernandez	01:39.771	+0.792	17	348.3	Soft / Medium	1:40.327	+0.30%	5	Medium
13	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.888	+0.909	19	347.2	Soft / Medium	1:40.113	+0.09%	5	Medium
14	Ai Ogura	01:39.920	+0.941	21	342.8	Soft / Medium	1:40.528	+0.50%	13	Medium
15	Fermin Aldeguer	01:39.926	+0.947	19	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:40.656	+0.63%	13	Medium
16	Alex Rins	01:39.955	+0.976	19	347.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:39.986	+1.007	18	351.7	Soft / Medium	1:40.223	+0.20%	5	Medium
18	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.039	+1.060	19	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:41.160	+1.14%	5	Medium
19	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.159	+1.180	20	348.3	Soft / Medium	1:40.826	+0.80%	10	Medium
20	Joan Mir	01:40.223	+1.244	15	350.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Jorge Martin	01:40.350	+1.371	20	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:41.154	+1.13%	8	Medium
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:40.451	+1.472	17	347.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
23	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.535	+1.556	19	350.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
24	Somkiat Chantra	01:40.990	+2.011	17	345.0	Soft / Medium	—			—

Practice · 05.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Brad Binder	01:38.141	—	26	354.0	Medium / Soft	1:40.010	+0.26%	9	Soft
2	Pedro Acosta	01:38.245	+0.104	24	352.9	Medium / Soft	1:40.301	+0.55%	7	Soft
3	Alex Marquez	01:38.280	+0.139	25	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:39.954	+0.20%	11	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:38.365	+0.224	23	352.9	Medium / Soft	1:40.156	+0.40%	5	Medium
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:38.403	+0.262	27	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.113	+0.36%	14	Soft
6	Enea Bastianini	01:38.490	+0.349	22	352.9	Medium / Soft	1:40.640	+0.89%	5	Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.511	+0.370	24	348.3	Medium / Soft	1:39.815	+0.06%	11	Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:38.511	+0.370	22	354.0	Medium / Soft	1:40.121	+0.37%	11	Medium
9	Luca Marini	01:38.522	+0.381	25	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Ai Ogura	01:38.599	+0.458	23	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.237	+0.48%	7	Medium
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.602	+0.461	27	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.119	+0.36%	15	Medium
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.656	+0.515	25	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.900	+1.15%	7	Soft
13	Joan Mir	01:38.730	+0.589	23	352.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Fermin Aldeguer	01:38.760	+0.619	22	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:39.756	—	6	Medium
15	Jack Miller	01:38.774	+0.633	25	350.6	Medium / Soft	1:40.430	+0.68%	11	Soft
16	Alex Rins	01:38.832	+0.691	21	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:40.918	+1.17%	6	Medium
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.915	+0.774	24	351.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Jorge Martin	01:38.982	+0.841	24	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.656	+0.90%	5	Soft
19	Raul Fernandez	01:39.024	+0.883	23	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.157	+1.016	21	352.9	Medium / Soft	1:40.117	+0.36%	5	Soft
21	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.170	+1.029	21	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.116	+0.36%	6	Medium
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:39.186	+1.045	21	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:41.228	+1.48%	10	Soft
23	Maverick Viñales	01:39.308	+1.167	17	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Somkiat Chantra	01:40.002	+1.861	23	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 06.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Joan Mir	01:39.119	—	12	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:39.644	+0.19%	7	Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:39.141	+0.022	14	350.6	Medium / Soft	1:39.451	—	5	Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.237	+0.118	14	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:39.633	+0.18%	5	Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:39.289	+0.170	11	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Pedro Acosta	01:39.293	+0.174	13	355.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Fermin Aldeguer	01:39.307	+0.188	13	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:39.329	+0.210	12	354.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Marc Marquez	01:39.340	+0.221	14	355.2	Medium / Soft	1:39.656	+0.21%	6	Soft
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:39.386	+0.267	16	352.9	Medium / Medium	1:39.581	+0.13%	7	Medium
10	Brad Binder	01:39.441	+0.322	14	352.9	Medium / Soft	1:40.368	+0.92%	9	Soft
11	Johann Zarco	01:39.454	+0.335	15	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:39.761	+0.31%	11	Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	01:39.481	+0.362	12	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Luca Marini	01:39.502	+0.383	14	351.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Enea Bastianini	01:39.581	+0.462	13	354.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Jack Miller	01:39.673	+0.554	13	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:39.967	+0.52%	5	Soft
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.702	+0.583	13	351.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.741	+0.622	11	352.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.753	+0.634	10	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:40.113	+0.67%	7	Soft
19	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.816	+0.697	15	354.0	Medium / Soft	1:40.593	+1.15%	10	Soft
20	Jorge Martin	01:39.848	+0.729	14	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.398	+0.95%	9	Soft
21	Ai Ogura	01:39.871	+0.752	13	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.273	+0.83%	5	Soft
22	Alex Rins	01:40.238	+1.119	9	341.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Somkiat Chantra	01:40.336	+1.217	9	350.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
24	Lorenzo Savadori	01:40.362	+1.243	10	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 06.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:37.906	—	7	345.0	Medium / Soft
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.045	+0.139	8	356.4	Medium / Soft
3	Fermin Aldeguer	01:38.049	+0.143	9	347.2	Medium / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:38.105	+0.199	8	354.0	Medium / Soft
5	Raul Fernandez	01:38.206	+0.300	8	348.3	Medium / Soft
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.210	+0.304	8	347.2	Medium / Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:38.214	+0.308	8	351.7	Medium / Soft
8	Jorge Martin	01:38.405	+0.499	8	351.7	Medium / Soft
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.446	+0.540	8	350.6	Medium / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:38.526	+0.620	8	346.1	Medium / Soft
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.530	+0.624	8	350.6	Medium / Soft
12	Maverick Viñales	01:38.531	+0.625	7	352.9	Medium / Soft
13	Lorenzo Savadori	01:38.658	+0.752	7	351.7	Medium / Soft
14	Somkiat Chantra	01:39.377	+1.471	8	348.3	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 06.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Alex Marquez	01:37.536	—	8	347.2	Medium / Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:37.803	+0.267	7	349.5	Medium / Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:37.945	+0.409	8	356.4	Medium / Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.010	+0.474	8	350.6	Medium / Soft
5	Pedro Acosta	01:38.019	+0.483	8	354.0	Medium / Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.034	+0.498	7	355.2	Medium / Soft
7	Johann Zarco	01:38.155	+0.619	7	356.4	Medium / Soft
8	Ai Ogura	01:38.166	+0.630	8	352.9	Medium / Soft
9	Enea Bastianini	01:38.187	+0.651	8	352.9	Medium / Soft
10	Luca Marini	01:38.327	+0.791	8	355.2	Medium / Soft
11	Brad Binder	01:38.333	+0.797	8	354.0	Medium / Soft
12	Marco Bezzecchi	01:38.361	+0.825	8	348.3	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 06.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	19:58.946	12	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.447	+0.56%	10	Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	+1.299	9	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.646	+0.76%	10	Soft
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+3.653	7	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.706	+0.82%	10	Soft
4	Pedro Acosta	+5.868	6	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.977	+1.09%	10	Soft
5	Enea Bastianini	+5.913	5	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.892	+1.01%	10	Soft
6	Brad Binder	+5.943	4	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.846	+0.96%	10	Soft
7	Johann Zarco	+7.017	3	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.234	+1.35%	10	Soft
8	Luca Marini	+7.346	2	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.197	+1.31%	10	Soft
9	Ai Ogura	+8.488	1	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.310	+1.43%	10	Soft
10	Miguel Oliveira	+8.578	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.162	+1.28%	10	Soft
11	Raul Fernandez	+9.788	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.346	+1.47%	10	Soft
12	Jack Miller	+10.165	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.489	+1.61%	10	Soft
13	Joan Mir	+11.593	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.352	+1.47%	10	Soft
14	Francesco Bagnaia	+14.463	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.472	+1.59%	10	Soft
15	Alex Rins	+15.936	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.539	+1.66%	10	Soft
16	Aleix Espargaro	+16.909	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.785	+1.91%	10	Soft
17	Maverick Viñales	+17.040	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.695	+1.82%	9	Soft
18	Somkiat Chantra	+22.439	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:41.114	+2.24%	10	Soft
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	8	Medium / Soft	1:38.897	—	6	Soft
Retired	Fermin Aldeguer		0	7	Medium / Soft	1:39.547	+0.66%	5	Soft
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	6	Medium / Soft	1:40.010	+1.13%	4	Soft
Retired	Jorge Martin		0	6	Medium / Soft	1:39.944	+1.06%	4	Soft
Retired	Lorenzo Savadori		0	6	Medium / Soft	1:40.713	+1.84%	4	Soft
Retired	Marco Bezzecchi		0	7	Medium / Soft	1:39.386	+0.49%	5	Soft

Warm Up · 07.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:38.826	—	6	352.9	Medium / Medium
2	Alex Marquez	01:39.174	+0.348	6	350.6	Medium / Medium
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.206	+0.380	6	343.9	Medium / Medium
4	Fermin Aldeguer	01:39.431	+0.605	6	346.1	Medium / Medium
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.527	+0.701	6	354.0	Medium / Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.527	+0.701	6	351.7	Medium / Medium
7	Enea Bastianini	01:39.548	+0.722	6	354.0	Medium / Medium
8	Jack Miller	01:39.558	+0.732	6	352.9	Medium / Medium
9	Marc Marquez	01:39.571	+0.745	6	352.9	Medium / Medium
10	Raul Fernandez	01:39.572	+0.746	6	348.3	Medium / Medium
11	Brad Binder	01:39.601	+0.775	6	351.7	Medium / Medium
12	Pedro Acosta	01:39.633	+0.807	6	354.0	Medium / Medium
13	Ai Ogura	01:39.645	+0.819	6	350.6	Soft / Medium
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.693	+0.867	6	351.7	Soft / Medium
15	Johann Zarco	01:39.720	+0.894	6	350.6	Medium / Medium
16	Jorge Martin	01:39.792	+0.966	6	349.5	Medium / Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.846	+1.020	6	349.5	Medium / Medium
18	Joan Mir	01:39.850	+1.024	6	351.7	Medium / Medium
19	Maverick Viñales	01:39.865	+1.039	6	348.3	Medium / Medium
20	Alex Rins	01:39.874	+1.048	6	348.3	Medium / Medium
21	Luca Marini	01:39.902	+1.076	6	346.1	Medium / Medium
22	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:40.251	+1.425	6	354.0	Medium / Medium
23	Somkiat Chantra	01:40.698	+1.872	6	348.3	Soft / Medium
24	Lorenzo Savadori	01:40.975	+2.149	6	346.1	Medium / Medium

Race · 07.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	40:14.093	25	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.344	+0.04%	20	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	+1.740	20	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.328	+0.02%	22	Medium
3	Enea Bastianini	+5.562	16	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.352	+0.04%	22	Medium
4	Pedro Acosta	+13.373	13	24	Medium / Soft	1:40.586	+0.28%	22	Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	+14.409	11	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.994	+0.68%	22	Medium
6	Ai Ogura	+15.055	10	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.036	+0.73%	22	Medium
7	Francesco Bagnaia	+16.048	9	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.982	+0.67%	22	Medium
8	Luca Marini	+16.372	8	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.834	+0.52%	22	Medium
9	Miguel Oliveira	+16.937	7	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.006	+0.70%	22	Medium
10	Jorge Martin	+18.492	6	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.065	+0.75%	20	Medium
11	Raul Fernandez	+19.489	5	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.061	+0.75%	22	Medium
12	Joan Mir	+20.159	4	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.930	+0.62%	22	Medium
13	Maverick Viñales	+22.792	3	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.166	+0.85%	21	Medium
14	Jack Miller	+24.351	2	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.995	+0.68%	22	Medium
15	Fermin Aldeguer	+24.592	1	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.116	+0.81%	21	Medium
16	Somkiat Chantra	+37.393	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.824	+1.51%	22	Medium
17	Aleix Espargaro	+43.202	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:42.049	+1.74%	21	Medium
Retired	Alex Rins		0	14	Medium / Medium	1:40.801	+0.49%	11	Medium
Retired	Brad Binder		0	6	Medium / Medium	1:40.309	—	4	Medium
Retired	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	12	Medium / Medium	1:40.813	+0.50%	9	Medium
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	21	Medium / Medium	1:41.036	+0.73%	18	Medium
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	10	Medium / Medium	1:40.475	+0.17%	8	Medium
Retired	Lorenzo Savadori		0	19	Medium / Medium	1:41.516	+1.20%	15	Medium
Retired	Marco Bezzecchi		0	1	Medium / Medium	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:39.434*	—	+0.275	Medium	3
Marco Bezzecchi	1:39.440	+0.006	+0.553	Medium	6
Raul Fernandez	1:39.631*	+0.197	+0.667	Medium	3
Alex Marquez	1:39.724	+0.290	+0.356	Medium	7
Franco Morbidelli	1:39.815	+0.381	+0.512	Medium	5
Brad Binder	1:39.855*	+0.421	+0.327	Medium	3
Francesco Bagnaia	1:39.894*	+0.460	+0.221	Medium	3
Miguel Oliveira	1:39.944*	+0.510	+0.193	Medium	3
Maverick Viñales	1:40.010*	+0.576	+0.292	Medium	3
Luca Marini	1:40.038	+0.604	+0.308	Medium	7
Marc Marquez	1:40.114	+0.680	+0.210	Medium	7
Johann Zarco	1:40.188	+0.754	+0.344	Medium	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:40.288	+0.854	+0.320	Medium	6
Joan Mir	1:40.328*	+0.894	+0.562	Medium	4
Jorge Martin	1:40.400*	+0.966	+0.457	Medium	4
Alex Rins	1:40.816	+1.382	+0.217	Medium	6
Somkiat Chantra	1:41.233*	+1.799	+0.221	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Fabio Quartararo	56%	1 ✓
2	Joan Mir	43%	7
3	Fermin Aldeguer	28%	3
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	21%	2 ✓
5	Jack Miller	19%	4
6	Miguel Oliveira	11%	6
7	Raul Fernandez	7%	5
8	Maverick Viñales	4%	12
9	Aleix Espargaro	3%	9
10	Alex Rins	3%	10
11	Jorge Martin	4%	8
12	Francesco Bagnaia	2%	11
13	Lorenzo Savadori	1%	13
14	Somkiat Chantra	0%	14

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Alex Marquez	38%	66%	88%	1
2	Pedro Acosta	21%	53%	81%	5
3	Brad Binder	13%	46%	75%	11
4	Marc Marquez	5%	32%	67%	3
5	Marco Bezzecchi	4%	25%	54%	12
6	Fabio Quartararo	6%	21%	55%	2
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	1%	13%	41%	6
8	Johann Zarco	3%	15%	38%	7
9	Enea Bastianini	3%	8%	31%	9
10	Franco Morbidelli	2%	9%	25%	4
11	Luca Marini	2%	9%	29%	10
12	Ai Ogura	1%	4%	19%	8

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Joan Mir	17	20	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards double long lap penalty for rider #32 & grid penalty for rider #36

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Alex Marquez	1	32%	63%	79%	88%	10%	—
Fabio Quartararo	2	23%	56%	72%	86%	11%	2
Marc Marquez	3	15%	48%	70%	88%	9%	1
Franco Morbidelli	4	11%	41%	65%	89%	6%	—
Pedro Acosta	5	6%	26%	51%	81%	14%	4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	6	4%	19%	41%	76%	16%	3
Johann Zarco	7	3%	14%	31%	68%	22%	7
Ai Ogura	8	3%	12%	29%	78%	4%	9
Enea Bastianini	9	1%	7%	18%	67%	9%	5
Luca Marini	10	1%	4%	13%	61%	10%	8
Brad Binder	11	1%	2%	8%	48%	17%	6
Marco Bezzecchi	12	1%	3%	7%	42%	13%	—
Fermin Aldeguer	13	0%	2%	5%	38%	4%	—
Jack Miller	14	0%	1%	3%	27%	8%	12
Raul Fernandez	15	0%	1%	2%	21%	6%	11
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	0%	1%	14%	12%	10
Jorge Martin	17	0%	1%	1%	10%	4%	—
Aleix Espargaro	18	0%	0%	1%	6%	23%	16
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	0%	4%	11%	15
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	24%	13
Francesco Bagnaia	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	13%	14
Maverick Viñales	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	9%	17
Lorenzo Savadori	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	13%	—
Somkiat Chantra	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	5%	18

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Alex Marquez	1	39%	63%	71%	76%	23%	1
Fabio Quartararo	2	21%	53%	70%	84%	13%	5
Marc Marquez	3	18%	53%	70%	82%	16%	2
Franco Morbidelli	4	3%	18%	37%	76%	16%	—
Pedro Acosta	5	3%	20%	40%	74%	18%	4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	6	7%	29%	50%	78%	16%	—
Johann Zarco	7	1%	6%	16%	58%	18%	—
Ai Ogura	8	0%	3%	10%	48%	23%	6
Enea Bastianini	9	1%	10%	25%	69%	17%	3
Luca Marini	10	0%	3%	12%	60%	8%	8
Brad Binder	11	2%	10%	26%	70%	14%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	12	4%	19%	41%	77%	15%	—
Fermin Aldeguer	13	2%	13%	28%	67%	21%	15
Jack Miller	14	0%	0%	0%	11%	25%	14
Raul Fernandez	15	0%	0%	1%	16%	20%	11
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	0%	1%	15%	22%	9
Jorge Martin	17	0%	1%	2%	27%	22%	10
Aleix Espargaro	18	0%	0%	0%	2%	23%	17
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	0%	3%	20%	—
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	36%	12
Francesco Bagnaia	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	22%	7
Maverick Viñales	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	13%	13
Lorenzo Savadori	23	0%	0%	0%	0%	28%	—
Somkiat Chantra	24	0%	0%	0%	0%	14%	16

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marco Bezzecchi	4% → 19%	+16	1% → 4%
Fermin Aldeguer	2% → 13%	+10	0% → 2%
Alex Marquez	54% → 63%	+9	25% → 39%
Dropping
Franco Morbidelli	36% → 18%	−18	12% → 3%
Johann Zarco	18% → 6%	−12	4% → 1%
Ai Ogura	13% → 3%	−10	3% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	1:38.897	—	+0.356	Soft	6
Marco Bezzecchi	1:39.386	+0.489	+0.553	Soft	5
Marc Marquez	1:39.447	+0.550	+0.210	Soft	10
Fermin Aldeguer	1:39.547	+0.650	+0.884	Soft	5
Fabio Quartararo	1:39.646	+0.749	+0.275	Soft	10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:39.706	+0.809	+0.320	Soft	10
Brad Binder	1:39.846	+0.949	+0.327	Soft	10
Enea Bastianini	1:39.892	+0.995	+0.319	Soft	10
Jorge Martin	1:39.944	+1.047	+0.457	Soft	4
Pedro Acosta	1:39.977	+1.080	+0.448	Soft	10
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.010	+1.113	+0.512	Soft	4
Miguel Oliveira	1:40.162	+1.265	+0.193	Soft	10
Luca Marini	1:40.197	+1.300	+0.308	Soft	10
Johann Zarco	1:40.234	+1.337	+0.344	Soft	10
Ai Ogura	1:40.310	+1.413	+0.300	Soft	10
Raul Fernandez	1:40.346	+1.449	+0.667	Soft	10
Joan Mir	1:40.352	+1.455	+0.562	Soft	10
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.472	+1.575	+0.221	Soft	10
Jack Miller	1:40.489	+1.592	+0.105	Soft	10
Alex Rins	1:40.539	+1.642	+0.217	Soft	10
Maverick Viñales	1:40.695	+1.798	+0.292	Soft	9
Lorenzo Savadori	1:40.713	+1.816	+0.781	Soft	4
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.785	+1.888	+0.209	Soft	10
Somkiat Chantra	1:41.114	+2.217	+0.221	Soft	10

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,669 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%	Pedro Acosta +0.44%	Aleix Espargaro +0.46%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.36%	Brad Binder +0.45%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.46%	Fabio Quartararo +0.47%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Francesco Bagnaia +0.53%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.78%
S2	Alex Marquez	Joan Mir +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.43%
S4	Joan Mir +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.21%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.45%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Johann Zarco +0.31%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Pedro Acosta +0.51%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.30%	Marc Marquez +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.03%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.37%	Brad Binder +0.41%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.12%	Brad Binder +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.13%
S4	Raul Fernandez	Aleix Espargaro +0.25%	Brad Binder +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.01%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.14%	Brad Binder +0.27%
S2	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S3	Miguel Oliveira +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.19%	Enea Bastianini +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.44%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.42%
S3	Alex Rins +0.21%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.36%	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%	Jorge Martin +0.57%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Johann Zarco	Miguel Oliveira +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.40%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Fabio Quartararo +0.07%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.38%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Jack Miller +0.41%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.34%
S3	Valentino Rossi +0.22%	Pol Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Valentino Rossi +0.16%	Brad Binder +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Joan Mir +0.33%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.18%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Alex Rins +0.35%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Valentino Rossi +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.19%
S2	Jorge Lorenzo +0.15%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%	Maverick Viñales +0.20%
S3	Andrea Iannone	Jorge Lorenzo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.12%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Johann Zarco +0.19%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

52/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 86% of the time (between 49% and 97%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	455	—
2	Alex Marquez	280	−175
3	Francesco Bagnaia	228	−227
4	Marco Bezzecchi	197	−258
5	Pedro Acosta	164	−291
6	Franco Morbidelli	161	−294

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

10/24

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

1.740 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P14 to P3.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Raul Fernandez (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2024 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:40.133	—	+0.457	Medium	22
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.182	+0.049	+0.221	Medium	21
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.414	+0.281	+0.512	Medium	14
Enea Bastianini	1:40.621	+0.488	+0.319	Medium	19
Raul Fernandez	1:40.644	+0.511	+0.667	Medium	22
Pedro Acosta	1:40.646	+0.513	+0.448	Soft	18
Marc Marquez	1:40.649	+0.516	+0.210	Soft	22
Alex Marquez	1:40.728	+0.595	+0.356	Soft	22
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.802	+0.669	+0.209	Medium	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:40.802	+0.669	+0.320	Medium	20

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Miguel OliveiraKTM
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 25% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/22	23%
2025	7/24	29%
2024	3/23	13%
2023	3/20	15%
2022	8/25	32%
2021	6/21	29%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	83%	+0.83%	+0.056	1	2	11.0
Soft	17%	+0.52%	+0.070	0	1	7.7

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.