Round 14 of 22 Aftermath

Hungarian Grand Prix 2025

4.075 m · since 2025

22.08 – 24.08.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	42:37.681	25
2	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+4.314	20
3	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+7.488	16
4	Jorge Martin	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+11.069	13
5	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+11.904	11
6	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+12.608	10
7	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+12.902	9
8	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+14.015	8
9	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+14.854	7
10	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+15.473	6
11	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+18.112	5
12	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+19.021	4
13	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+22.861	3
14	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+25.938	2
15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+26.262	1
16	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+55.239	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Retired	0
DNF	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	21:13.465	12
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+2.095	9
3	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+3.595	7
4	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+4.890	6
5	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+5.692	5
6	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+6.147	4
7	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+6.266	3
8	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+7.332	2
9	Jorge Martin	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+10.779	1
10	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+12.905	0
11	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+13.148	0
12	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+14.097	0
13	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+14.891	0
14	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+15.342	0
15	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+15.467	0
16	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+21.007	0
17	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+22.245	0
18	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+0.000	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Out on lap 1	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Marc Marquez · 30% ✓	Marc Marquez · 30% · from P1	0.67 / 0.67	3.1 / 3.1
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 30% ✓	Marc Marquez · 30% · from P1	0.39 / 0.39	3.7 / 3.7
Race (after the sprint)	Marc Marquez · 41% ✓	Marc Marquez · 41% · from P1	0.26 / 0.39	4.3 / 3.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:38.236	—	+0.210	Medium	24
Pedro Acosta	1:38.298	+0.062	+0.448	Soft	24
Fermin Aldeguer	1:38.374	+0.138	+0.884	Medium	20
Marco Bezzecchi	1:38.467	+0.231	+0.553	Soft	24
Jorge Martin	1:38.514	+0.278	+0.457	Medium	21
Francesco Bagnaia	1:38.527	+0.291	+0.221	Medium	23
Luca Marini	1:38.532	+0.296	+0.308	Medium	24
Franco Morbidelli	1:38.589	+0.353	+0.512	Soft	23
Brad Binder	1:38.618	+0.382	+0.327	Soft	21
Ai Ogura	1:38.619	+0.383	+0.300	Soft	24
Pol Espargaro	1:38.632	+0.396	+0.406	Soft	24
Alex Marquez	1:38.668	+0.432	+0.356	Soft	21
Fabio Quartararo	1:38.682	+0.446	+0.275	Medium	24
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:38.690	+0.454	+0.320	Medium	24
Johann Zarco	1:38.740	+0.504	+0.344	Soft	18
Miguel Oliveira	1:38.768	+0.532	+0.193	Medium	24
Jack Miller	1:38.873	+0.637	+0.105	Medium	13
Alex Rins	1:38.921	+0.685	+0.217	Soft	24
Raul Fernandez	1:39.171	+0.935	+0.667	Medium	5

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

16/26

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

4.314 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jorge Martin, from P16 to P4.

Longest battle: Ai Ogura vs Johann Zarco (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

13/13

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.095 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jorge Martin, from P17 to P9.

Longest battle: Ai Ogura vs Miguel Oliveira (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:02:35	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:03:27	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:03:37	Enea Bastianini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:11:43	Pedro Acosta	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:13:05	Alex Rins	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to shortcut at T16
Sprint	15:13:51	Alex Rins	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETE
Race	14:02:28	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Pit-lane start	Starting from pit lane
Race	14:03:34	Enea Bastianini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:03:56	Fabio Quartararo	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:04:18	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:08:04	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:08:04	Raul Fernandez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:08:32	Fabio Quartararo	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETE
Race	14:10:18	Joan Mir	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:10:58	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:12:45	Enea Bastianini	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:23:55	Fermin Aldeguer	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:24:29	Francesco Bagnaia	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to shortcut at T16
Race	14:26:07	Francesco Bagnaia	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETE
Race	14:28:40	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:30:04	Jack Miller	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:32:35	Raul Fernandez	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:33:24	Fermin Aldeguer	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to shortcut at T16
Race	14:35:31	Fermin Aldeguer	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETE
Race	14:36:14	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:42:00	Franco Morbidelli	Position penalty	To drop 1 position due to shortcut at T10
Race	14:43:25	Franco Morbidelli	Position penalty	To drop 1 position - COMPLETE
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #43 & #73, long lap penalty for rider #20 & double long lap penalty for rider #23

Race: 2 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 6 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marco Bezzecchi (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jorge Martin	16	7	+9
Francesco Bagnaia	13	8	+5
Jack Miller	17	12	+5
Enea Bastianini	4	21	−17
Fabio Di Giannantonio	3	20	−17
Joan Mir	10	16	−6

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Jorge Martin	16→4	+8.5
Pedro Acosta	7→2	+4.7
Ai Ogura	21→11	+4.7
Fabio Quartararo	6→10	−4.0
Fermin Aldeguer	8→16	−8.7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	3→15	−10.9

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	52%	+0.45%	−0.009	1	1	9.0
Soft	48%	+0.39%	−0.008	0	2	8.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

21.2 °C

Air

max 21.4 °C

22%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

12 km/h

Wind

gusts 30 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 22.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:37.956	—	22	306.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Pol Espargaro	01:38.233	+0.277	21	305.0	Soft / Medium	1:40.694	+1.05%	11	Medium
3	Pedro Acosta	01:38.526	+0.570	21	302.5	Soft / Medium	1:41.280	+1.64%	5	Medium
4	Luca Marini	01:38.660	+0.704	21	302.5	Soft / Medium	1:40.318	+0.67%	10	Medium
5	Alex Marquez	01:38.683	+0.727	22	301.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.100	+1.45%	11	Medium
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:38.731	+0.775	22	302.5	Soft / Medium	1:41.295	+1.65%	6	Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.794	+0.838	19	297.5	Soft / Medium	1:43.212	+3.57%	6	Medium
8	Enea Bastianini	01:38.848	+0.892	23	303.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.376	+1.73%	5	Medium
9	Fermin Aldeguer	01:38.848	+0.892	21	300.8	Soft / Medium	1:40.362	+0.71%	10	Medium
10	Jorge Martin	01:38.995	+1.039	19	303.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.013	+1.057	21	299.1	Soft / Medium	1:39.651	—	5	Medium
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:39.092	+1.136	20	300.0	Soft / Medium	1:39.924	+0.27%	6	Medium
13	Jack Miller	01:39.248	+1.292	21	301.6	Soft / Medium	1:42.287	+2.65%	6	Medium
14	Johann Zarco	01:39.306	+1.350	23	299.1	Soft / Medium	1:40.916	+1.27%	12	Medium
15	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.339	+1.383	21	305.0	Soft / Medium	1:43.452	+3.81%	5	Medium
16	Raul Fernandez	01:39.409	+1.453	20	300.0	Soft / Medium	1:41.901	+2.26%	5	Medium
17	Ai Ogura	01:39.581	+1.625	24	300.0	Soft / Medium	1:41.628	+1.98%	12	Medium
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.624	+1.668	21	303.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.923	+2.28%	10	Medium
19	Joan Mir	01:39.670	+1.714	23	301.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.788	+2.14%	10	Medium
20	Alex Rins	01:39.887	+1.931	22	299.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Brad Binder	01:40.166	+2.210	23	301.6	Hard / Medium	1:41.570	+1.93%	5	Medium

Practice · 22.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Pedro Acosta	01:37.061	—	22	306.8	Medium / Soft	1:38.859	+0.41%	5	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:37.067	+0.006	25	303.3	Medium / Soft	1:38.496	+0.04%	11	Medium
3	Alex Marquez	01:37.342	+0.281	24	303.3	Medium / Soft	1:38.890	+0.44%	7	Medium
4	Fermin Aldeguer	01:37.375	+0.314	24	301.6	Medium / Soft	1:38.669	+0.22%	6	Soft
5	Enea Bastianini	01:37.415	+0.354	23	304.2	Medium / Soft	1:38.457	—	5	Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.429	+0.368	26	303.3	Medium / Soft	1:39.109	+0.66%	11	Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:37.446	+0.385	28	305.0	Medium / Soft	1:38.703	+0.25%	5	Medium
8	Pol Espargaro	01:37.544	+0.483	24	305.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Luca Marini	01:37.588	+0.527	24	302.5	Medium / Soft	1:39.296	+0.85%	5	Soft
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:37.671	+0.610	24	300.0	Medium / Soft	1:39.780	+1.34%	5	Soft
11	Jorge Martin	01:37.672	+0.611	25	305.0	Medium / Soft	1:38.861	+0.41%	4	Soft
12	Marco Bezzecchi	01:37.754	+0.693	25	305.0	Medium / Soft	1:39.574	+1.14%	5	Soft
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:37.785	+0.724	24	301.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.789	+0.728	23	305.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Brad Binder	01:37.876	+0.815	26	306.8	Medium / Soft	1:39.190	+0.74%	5	Soft
16	Ai Ogura	01:38.013	+0.952	26	303.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Jack Miller	01:38.022	+0.961	25	302.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.072	+1.011	25	305.0	Medium / Soft	1:39.734	+1.30%	6	Soft
19	Raul Fernandez	01:38.242	+1.181	25	304.2	Medium / Soft	1:39.986	+1.55%	5	Medium
20	Johann Zarco	01:38.288	+1.227	24	301.6	Medium / Soft	1:39.112	+0.67%	12	Soft
21	Alex Rins	01:38.379	+1.318	25	300.8	Medium / Soft	1:40.137	+1.71%	5	Medium

FP2 · 23.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:37.355	—	14	305.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Pedro Acosta	01:37.363	+0.008	14	306.8	Medium / Soft	1:38.176	—	5	Soft
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:37.484	+0.129	12	305.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Fermin Aldeguer	01:37.846	+0.491	13	300.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:37.886	+0.531	14	304.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Enea Bastianini	01:37.912	+0.557	14	305.0	Medium / Soft	1:38.452	+0.28%	4	Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:37.922	+0.567	15	303.3	Medium / Soft	1:38.790	+0.63%	10	Soft
8	Brad Binder	01:37.951	+0.596	14	305.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Alex Marquez	01:38.034	+0.679	14	304.2	Medium / Soft	1:38.430	+0.26%	10	Soft
10	Jorge Martin	01:38.101	+0.746	14	305.0	Medium / Medium	1:39.174	+1.02%	5	Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.136	+0.781	14	305.0	Medium / Soft	1:39.441	+1.29%	5	Soft
12	Ai Ogura	01:38.136	+0.781	13	304.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Luca Marini	01:38.163	+0.808	14	304.2	Medium / Soft	1:38.249	+0.07%	5	Soft
14	Pol Espargaro	01:38.168	+0.813	13	305.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.211	+0.856	13	301.6	Medium / Soft	1:38.840	+0.68%	4	Soft
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.214	+0.859	14	303.3	Medium / Soft	1:38.687	+0.52%	9	Soft
17	Johann Zarco	01:38.458	+1.103	14	299.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.489	+1.134	11	305.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Raul Fernandez	01:38.589	+1.234	10	302.5	Medium / Soft	1:39.684	+1.54%	4	Soft
20	Alex Rins	01:38.631	+1.276	14	300.8	Medium / Soft	1:38.911	+0.75%	5	Soft
21	Jack Miller	01:38.637	+1.282	14	304.2	Medium / Medium	1:38.784	+0.62%	4	Medium

Q1 · 23.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:36.800	—	8	305.9	Medium / Soft
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:37.047	+0.247	8	305.9	Medium / Soft
3	Brad Binder	01:37.047	+0.247	8	308.5	Medium / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:37.079	+0.279	8	305.9	Medium / Soft
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.096	+0.296	8	306.8	Medium / Soft
6	Raul Fernandez	01:37.348	+0.548	9	302.5	Medium / Soft
7	Jorge Martin	01:37.378	+0.578	9	306.8	Medium / Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:37.429	+0.629	8	303.3	Medium / Soft
9	Miguel Oliveira	01:37.433	+0.633	9	305.9	Medium / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:37.438	+0.638	9	304.2	Medium / Soft
11	Ai Ogura	01:37.915	+1.115	8	305.0	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 23.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:36.518	—	8	307.6	Medium / Soft
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:36.808	+0.290	8	305.0	Medium / Soft
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:36.872	+0.354	8	305.9	Medium / Soft
4	Enea Bastianini	01:36.942	+0.424	8	305.9	Medium / Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.031	+0.513	8	304.2	Medium / Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:37.042	+0.524	8	300.0	Medium / Soft
7	Pedro Acosta	01:37.099	+0.581	6	306.8	Medium / Soft
8	Fermin Aldeguer	01:37.130	+0.612	8	303.3	Medium / Soft
9	Luca Marini	01:37.177	+0.659	8	303.3	Medium / Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:37.239	+0.721	9	304.2	Medium / Soft
11	Alex Marquez	01:37.249	+0.731	9	305.0	Medium / Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	01:37.622	+1.104	7	307.6	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 23.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	21:13.465	12	13	Medium / Soft	1:37.606	—	10	Soft
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+2.095	9	13	Medium / Soft	1:37.957	+0.36%	11	Soft
3	Franco Morbidelli	+3.595	7	13	Medium / Soft	1:37.933	+0.34%	11	Soft
4	Luca Marini	+4.890	6	13	Medium / Soft	1:38.025	+0.43%	11	Soft
5	Fermin Aldeguer	+5.692	5	13	Medium / Soft	1:37.988	+0.39%	10	Soft
6	Joan Mir	+6.147	4	13	Medium / Soft	1:37.982	+0.39%	10	Soft
7	Marco Bezzecchi	+6.266	3	13	Medium / Soft	1:38.067	+0.47%	11	Soft
8	Alex Marquez	+7.332	2	13	Medium / Soft	1:38.138	+0.55%	11	Soft
9	Jorge Martin	+10.779	1	13	Medium / Soft	1:38.251	+0.66%	11	Soft
10	Pol Espargaro	+12.905	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:38.601	+1.02%	11	Soft
11	Raul Fernandez	+13.148	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:38.620	+1.04%	10	Soft
12	Jack Miller	+14.097	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:38.683	+1.10%	11	Soft
13	Francesco Bagnaia	+14.891	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:38.612	+1.03%	10	Soft
14	Miguel Oliveira	+15.342	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:38.570	+0.99%	11	Soft
15	Ai Ogura	+15.467	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:38.555	+0.97%	11	Soft
16	Alex Rins	+21.007	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:38.550	+0.97%	11	Soft
17	Pedro Acosta	+22.245	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:38.358	+0.77%	10	Soft
18	Brad Binder	+0.000	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:38.506	+0.92%	7	Soft
Out on lap 1	Enea Bastianini		0	0	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Fabio Quartararo		0	0	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Johann Zarco		0	0	— / —	—			—

Warm Up · 24.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:37.354	—	6	306.8	Medium / Medium
2	Fermin Aldeguer	01:37.904	+0.550	7	301.6	Medium / Medium
3	Jorge Martin	01:38.171	+0.817	6	304.2	Medium / Medium
4	Jack Miller	01:38.233	+0.879	6	304.2	Medium / Medium
5	Alex Marquez	01:38.264	+0.910	6	301.6	Medium / Soft
6	Enea Bastianini	01:38.362	+1.008	6	303.3	Soft / Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:38.416	+1.062	6	303.3	Medium / Medium
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.462	+1.108	6	301.6	Medium / Medium
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.496	+1.142	6	304.2	Soft / Soft
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.625	+1.271	6	305.9	Medium / Medium
11	Brad Binder	01:38.708	+1.354	6	304.2	Medium / Medium
12	Alex Rins	01:38.721	+1.367	6	302.5	Medium / Soft
13	Luca Marini	01:38.762	+1.408	6	305.0	Medium / Soft
14	Pol Espargaro	01:38.790	+1.436	6	303.3	Soft / Soft
15	Marco Bezzecchi	01:38.880	+1.526	6	305.0	Medium / Medium
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.888	+1.534	6	302.5	Soft / Soft
17	Raul Fernandez	01:38.909	+1.555	6	300.0	Medium / Medium
18	Ai Ogura	01:39.007	+1.653	4	300.8	Medium / Medium
19	Johann Zarco	01:39.042	+1.688	6	300.0	Medium / Soft
20	Pedro Acosta	01:39.259	+1.905	6	305.0	Medium / Medium
21	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.518	+3.164	5	303.3	Medium / Medium

Race · 24.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	42:37.681	25	26	Medium / Medium	1:38.236	—	24	Medium
2	Pedro Acosta	+4.314	20	26	Medium / Soft	1:38.298	+0.06%	24	Soft
3	Marco Bezzecchi	+7.488	16	26	Medium / Soft	1:38.467	+0.24%	24	Soft
4	Jorge Martin	+11.069	13	26	Medium / Medium	1:38.514	+0.28%	21	Medium
5	Luca Marini	+11.904	11	26	Medium / Medium	1:38.532	+0.30%	24	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	+12.608	10	26	Medium / Soft	1:38.589	+0.36%	23	Soft
7	Brad Binder	+12.902	9	26	Medium / Soft	1:38.618	+0.39%	21	Soft
8	Pol Espargaro	+14.015	8	26	Medium / Soft	1:38.632	+0.40%	24	Soft
9	Francesco Bagnaia	+14.854	7	26	Medium / Medium	1:38.527	+0.30%	23	Medium
10	Fabio Quartararo	+15.473	6	26	Medium / Medium	1:38.682	+0.45%	24	Medium
11	Ai Ogura	+18.112	5	26	Medium / Soft	1:38.619	+0.39%	24	Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	+19.021	4	26	Medium / Medium	1:38.768	+0.54%	24	Medium
13	Alex Rins	+22.861	3	26	Medium / Soft	1:38.921	+0.70%	24	Soft
14	Alex Marquez	+25.938	2	26	Medium / Soft	1:38.668	+0.44%	21	Soft
15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+26.262	1	26	Soft / Medium	1:38.690	+0.46%	24	Medium
16	Fermin Aldeguer	+55.239	0	26	Medium / Medium	1:38.374	+0.14%	20	Medium
Retired	Enea Bastianini		0	1	— / —	—			—
Retired	Jack Miller		0	16	Medium / Medium	1:38.873	+0.65%	13	Medium
Retired	Joan Mir		0	4	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	20	Medium / Soft	1:38.740	+0.51%	18	Soft
Retired	Raul Fernandez		0	12	Medium / Medium	1:39.171	+0.95%	5	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:37.753*	—	+0.210	Medium	3
Fermin Aldeguer	1:38.114	+0.361	+0.884	Medium	8
Jorge Martin	1:38.179	+0.426	+0.457	Medium	5
Franco Morbidelli	1:38.474*	+0.721	+0.512	Medium	3
Miguel Oliveira	1:38.639*	+0.886	+0.193	Medium	3
Jack Miller	1:38.728	+0.975	+0.105	Medium	5
Joan Mir	1:38.953*	+1.200	+0.562	Medium	4
Raul Fernandez	1:39.088	+1.335	+0.667	Medium	7
Alex Rins	1:39.777*	+2.024	+0.217	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Marco Bezzecchi	56%	1 ✓
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	43%	2 ✓
3	Jorge Martin	28%	7
4	Brad Binder	21%	3
5	Francesco Bagnaia	19%	5
6	Ai Ogura	11%	11
7	Miguel Oliveira	7%	9
8	Johann Zarco	4%	8
9	Jack Miller	3%	4
10	Raul Fernandez	3%	6
11	Alex Rins	4%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	38%	66%	88%	1
2	Pedro Acosta	22%	53%	81%	7
3	Fermin Aldeguer	14%	46%	76%	8
4	Enea Bastianini	5%	32%	67%	4
5	Alex Marquez	4%	25%	54%	11
6	Joan Mir	6%	22%	55%	10
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	1%	13%	40%	3
8	Marco Bezzecchi	3%	14%	38%	2
9	Franco Morbidelli	3%	8%	31%	5
10	Luca Marini	2%	9%	25%	9
11	Pol Espargaro	2%	9%	29%	12
12	Fabio Quartararo	1%	4%	19%	6

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Alex Marquez	11	14	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #43 & #73, long lap penalty for rider #20 & double long lap penalty for rider #23
Race	Jack Miller	14	17	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #43 & #73, long lap penalty for rider #20 & double long lap penalty for rider #23

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	30%	64%	79%	90%	9%	1
Marco Bezzecchi	2	19%	51%	71%	84%	13%	7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	3	13%	41%	63%	81%	16%	2
Enea Bastianini	4	11%	40%	63%	89%	8%	—
Franco Morbidelli	5	9%	30%	56%	89%	7%	3
Fabio Quartararo	6	5%	22%	45%	82%	10%	—
Pedro Acosta	7	4%	15%	33%	74%	15%	17
Fermin Aldeguer	8	3%	13%	31%	80%	4%	5
Luca Marini	9	2%	7%	17%	67%	11%	4
Joan Mir	10	1%	4%	12%	51%	25%	6
Pol Espargaro	11	1%	4%	10%	50%	13%	10
Brad Binder	12	0%	2%	6%	40%	17%	18
Francesco Bagnaia	13	0%	2%	5%	34%	13%	13
Alex Marquez	14	1%	1%	3%	27%	10%	8
Raul Fernandez	15	0%	1%	3%	22%	7%	11
Jorge Martin	16	0%	1%	2%	16%	4%	9
Jack Miller	17	0%	1%	1%	10%	8%	12
Johann Zarco	18	0%	0%	1%	6%	20%	—
Miguel Oliveira	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	12%	14
Alex Rins	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	11%	16
Ai Ogura	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	4%	15

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	41%	68%	78%	84%	16%	1
Marco Bezzecchi	2	6%	29%	52%	81%	15%	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	3	19%	52%	71%	82%	16%	15
Enea Bastianini	4	9%	36%	60%	81%	16%	—
Franco Morbidelli	5	15%	47%	68%	83%	16%	6
Fabio Quartararo	6	3%	16%	39%	80%	13%	10
Pedro Acosta	7	1%	6%	17%	68%	19%	2
Fermin Aldeguer	8	4%	23%	46%	75%	22%	16
Luca Marini	9	2%	11%	31%	84%	8%	5
Joan Mir	10	1%	8%	21%	57%	36%	—
Pol Espargaro	11	0%	0%	2%	28%	20%	8
Brad Binder	12	0%	1%	5%	49%	14%	7
Francesco Bagnaia	13	0%	0%	1%	18%	22%	9
Alex Marquez	14	0%	1%	5%	44%	23%	14
Raul Fernandez	15	0%	0%	1%	20%	19%	—
Jorge Martin	16	0%	0%	2%	33%	22%	4
Jack Miller	17	0%	0%	0%	6%	25%	—
Johann Zarco	18	0%	0%	0%	3%	18%	—
Miguel Oliveira	19	0%	0%	0%	7%	22%	12
Alex Rins	20	0%	0%	0%	11%	20%	13
Ai Ogura	21	0%	0%	0%	6%	24%	11

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Franco Morbidelli	29% → 47%	+18	7% → 15%
Marc Marquez	58% → 68%	+11	30% → 41%
Fermin Aldeguer	13% → 23%	+10	3% → 4%
Dropping
Marco Bezzecchi	51% → 29%	−22	21% → 6%
Pedro Acosta	18% → 6%	−12	4% → 1%
Fabio Quartararo	24% → 16%	−8	5% → 3%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:37.606	—	+0.210	Soft	10
Franco Morbidelli	1:37.933	+0.327	+0.512	Soft	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:37.957	+0.351	+0.320	Soft	11
Joan Mir	1:37.982	+0.376	+0.562	Soft	10
Fermin Aldeguer	1:37.988	+0.382	+0.884	Soft	10
Luca Marini	1:38.025	+0.419	+0.308	Soft	11
Marco Bezzecchi	1:38.067	+0.461	+0.553	Soft	11
Alex Marquez	1:38.138	+0.532	+0.356	Soft	11
Jorge Martin	1:38.251	+0.645	+0.457	Soft	11
Pedro Acosta	1:38.358	+0.752	+0.448	Soft	10
Brad Binder	1:38.506	+0.900	+0.327	Soft	7
Alex Rins	1:38.550	+0.944	+0.217	Soft	11
Ai Ogura	1:38.555	+0.949	+0.300	Soft	11
Miguel Oliveira	1:38.570	+0.964	+0.193	Soft	11
Pol Espargaro	1:38.601	+0.995	+0.406	Soft	11
Francesco Bagnaia	1:38.612	+1.006	+0.221	Soft	10
Raul Fernandez	1:38.620	+1.014	+0.667	Soft	10
Jack Miller	1:38.683	+1.077	+0.105	Soft	11

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,079 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.55%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.01%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.45%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.18%	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.32%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.47%	Pedro Acosta +0.48%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.38%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.12%	Ai Ogura +0.35%	Raul Fernandez +0.44%
S3	Marc Marquez	Pedro Acosta +0.06%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.08%
S4	Marc Marquez	Raul Fernandez +0.32%	Pedro Acosta +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Pedro Acosta +0.26%	Franco Morbidelli +0.43%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Pedro Acosta +0.06%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.18%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Pedro Acosta +0.39%	Franco Morbidelli +0.41%
S4	Marc Marquez	Enea Bastianini +0.46%	Alex Marquez +0.47%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

Pending · no data yet

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	418	—
2	Alex Marquez	276	−142
3	Francesco Bagnaia	221	−197
4	Marco Bezzecchi	178	−240
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	144	−274
6	Pedro Acosta	144	−274

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati

Attrition here

Average here 26% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	6/22	27%
2025	5/21	24%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet