Round 1 of 20 Aftermath

Qatar Grand Prix 2024

5.380 m · 21 laps · since 2004

08.03 – 10.03.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	39:34.869	25
2	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+1.329	20
3	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+1.933	16
4	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+3.429	13
5	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+5.153	11
6	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+6.791	10
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+9.161	9
8	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+11.242	8
9	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+11.595	7
10	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+13.197	6
11	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+17.701	5
12	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+18.075	4
13	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+18.437	3
14	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+19.194	2
15	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+20.717	1
16	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+24.093	0
17	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+24.106	0
18	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+24.641	0
19	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+25.556	0
20	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+42.422	0
21	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+42.761	0
DNF	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	20:41.287	12
2	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+0.548	9
3	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+0.729	7
4	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+1.625	6
5	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.872	5
6	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.322	4
7	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+3.154	3
8	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+4.431	2
9	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+6.738	1
10	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+12.670	0
11	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+12.835	0
12	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+12.863	0
13	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+13.095	0
14	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+13.795	0
15	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+14.096	0
16	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+14.840	0
17	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+15.629	0
18	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+17.711	0
19	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+22.733	0
20	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+23.267	0
21	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+25.553	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Jorge Martin · 33% ✓	Jorge Martin · 33% · from P1	0.96 / 0.96	1.7 / 1.7
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 27%	Francesco Bagnaia · 7% · from P5	0.85 / 0.85	2.7 / 2.7
Race (after the sprint)	Jorge Martin · 31%	Francesco Bagnaia · 6% · from P5	0.89 / 0.85	2.4 / 2.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:52.996	—	+0.221	Medium	19
Brad Binder	1:53.032	+0.036	+0.327	Medium	19
Jorge Martin	1:53.068	+0.072	+0.457	Medium	19
Marc Marquez	1:53.102	+0.106	+0.210	Medium	19
Pedro Acosta	1:53.140	+0.144	+0.448	Medium	19
Alex Marquez	1:53.211	+0.215	+0.356	Medium	19
Enea Bastianini	1:53.266	+0.270	+0.319	Medium	19
Maverick Viñales	1:53.284	+0.288	+0.292	Medium	19
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:53.296	+0.300	+0.320	Medium	19
Aleix Espargaro	1:53.328	+0.332	+0.209	Medium	19
Marco Bezzecchi	1:53.659	+0.663	+0.553	Medium	19
Miguel Oliveira	1:53.729	+0.733	+0.193	Medium	19
Joan Mir	1:53.739	+0.743	+0.562	Medium	19
Alex Rins	1:53.743	+0.747	+0.217	Medium	19
Johann Zarco	1:53.767	+0.771	+0.344	Medium	19
Fabio Quartararo	1:53.792	+0.796	+0.275	Medium	19
Raul Fernandez	1:53.845	+0.849	+0.667	Medium	15
Augusto Fernandez	1:53.884	+0.888	+0.437	Medium	19
Franco Morbidelli	1:53.962	+0.966	+0.512	Medium	19
Takaaki Nakagami	1:54.016	+1.020	+0.359	Medium	19
Jack Miller	1:54.437	+1.441	+0.105	Medium	18
Luca Marini	1:54.772	+1.776	+0.308	Medium	19

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

21/21

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

1.329 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P16 to P11.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Fabio Di Giannantonio (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

11/11

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

0.548 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marco Bezzecchi, from P15 to P11.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Jorge Martin (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	19:08:06	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	20:09:01	Raul Fernandez	Pit-lane start	Starting warm up lap from pit lane
Race	20:13:34	Miguel Oliveira	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	20:13:46	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	20:20:12	Miguel Oliveira	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards long lap penalty for rider #88

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P5).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Fabio Quartararo	16	11	+5
Francesco Bagnaia	5	1	+4
Joan Mir	17	13	+4
Raul Fernandez	12	20	−8
Aleix Espargaro	2	9	−7
Takaaki Nakagami	19	22	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Francesco Bagnaia	5→1	+4.4
Brad Binder	4→2	+2.8
Marc Marquez	6→4	+2.0
Aleix Espargaro	2→8	−4.5
Takaaki Nakagami	19→19	−4.6
Jack Miller	11→21	−11.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.62%	+0.015	1	3	11.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

19.1 °C

Air

max 20.0 °C

87%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

6 km/h

Wind

gusts 9 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 08.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:52.624	—	17	345.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:52.671	+0.047	15	340.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Pedro Acosta	01:52.695	+0.071	16	346.1	Medium / Medium	1:53.911	+0.30%	8	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:52.801	+0.177	17	348.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Brad Binder	01:52.889	+0.265	19	350.6	Medium / Medium	1:53.571	—	14	Medium
6	Johann Zarco	01:52.927	+0.303	16	342.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Enea Bastianini	01:52.950	+0.326	17	347.2	Medium / Medium	1:53.883	+0.28%	10	Medium
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:52.987	+0.363	16	347.2	Medium / Medium	1:53.944	+0.33%	11	Medium
9	Jack Miller	01:53.031	+0.407	17	349.5	Medium / Medium	1:54.516	+0.83%	5	Medium
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:53.221	+0.597	15	345.0	Medium / Medium	1:53.886	+0.28%	4	Medium
11	Alex Marquez	01:53.250	+0.626	17	339.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:53.338	+0.714	16	346.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Maverick Viñales	01:53.351	+0.727	16	342.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Raul Fernandez	01:53.380	+0.756	14	343.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
15	Alex Rins	01:53.407	+0.783	17	349.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
16	Joan Mir	01:53.435	+0.811	16	342.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Luca Marini	01:53.608	+0.984	16	346.1	Medium / Medium	1:55.305	+1.53%	5	Medium
18	Marco Bezzecchi	01:53.626	+1.002	18	343.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Fabio Quartararo	01:53.837	+1.213	16	346.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Augusto Fernandez	01:53.847	+1.223	17	345.0	Medium / Medium	1:55.550	+1.74%	5	Medium
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:53.863	+1.239	17	341.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
22	Franco Morbidelli	01:54.749	+2.125	18	338.5	Medium / Medium	1:56.787	+2.83%	12	Medium

FP2 · 08.03 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	02:06.544	—	11	333.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:11.069	+2.37%	7	Wet-Medium
2	Augusto Fernandez	02:06.834	+0.290	15	332.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:08.040	—	7	Wet-Medium
3	Pedro Acosta	02:06.938	+0.394	15	338.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:09.750	+1.34%	10	Wet-Medium
4	Jack Miller	02:07.263	+0.719	15	340.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:08.596	+0.43%	6	Wet-Medium
5	Brad Binder	02:07.345	+0.801	12	339.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:08.727	+0.54%	5	Wet-Medium
6	Raul Fernandez	02:07.384	+0.840	9	326.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
7	Enea Bastianini	02:07.436	+0.892	14	337.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:08.857	+0.64%	8	Wet-Medium
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:07.997	+1.453	11	338.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
9	Alex Marquez	02:08.103	+1.559	13	334.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
10	Johann Zarco	02:08.321	+1.777	12	330.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
11	Joan Mir	02:08.327	+1.783	12	327.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
12	Francesco Bagnaia	02:08.494	+1.950	12	336.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
13	Marco Bezzecchi	02:08.648	+2.104	14	333.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:08.947	+0.71%	6	Wet-Medium
14	Fabio Quartararo	02:08.702	+2.158	12	335.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
15	Maverick Viñales	02:08.839	+2.295	9	325.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
16	Luca Marini	02:09.184	+2.640	13	333.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
17	Franco Morbidelli	02:09.399	+2.855	16	330.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:10.067	+1.58%	9	Wet-Medium
18	Jorge Martin	02:09.495	+2.951	13	333.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
19	Aleix Espargaro	02:09.777	+3.233	13	328.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
20	Miguel Oliveira	02:09.813	+3.269	13	331.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
21	Takaaki Nakagami	02:10.350	+3.806	14	332.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:10.930	+2.26%	4	Wet-Medium
22	Alex Rins	02:10.535	+3.991	14	328.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:15.290	+5.66%	5	Wet-Soft

Practice · 09.03 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	01:51.108	—	16	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:53.840	—	5	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:51.118	+0.010	16	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:51.217	+0.109	13	348.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:51.238	+0.130	13	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Maverick Viñales	01:51.356	+0.248	14	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Pedro Acosta	01:51.372	+0.264	16	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:51.425	+0.317	16	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Enea Bastianini	01:51.454	+0.346	15	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Marc Marquez	01:51.469	+0.361	16	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Brad Binder	01:51.487	+0.379	15	352.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Raul Fernandez	01:51.519	+0.411	15	345.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:51.578	+0.470	16	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Marco Bezzecchi	01:51.931	+0.823	15	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:52.088	+0.980	14	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Jack Miller	01:52.216	+1.108	15	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Johann Zarco	01:52.313	+1.205	16	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Joan Mir	01:52.321	+1.213	14	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Augusto Fernandez	01:52.547	+1.439	15	345.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Alex Rins	01:52.924	+1.816	14	342.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:52.935	+1.827	16	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Franco Morbidelli	01:53.423	+2.315	14	342.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Luca Marini	01:53.536	+2.428	12	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 09.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Raul Fernandez	01:51.436	—	5	345.0	Medium / Soft
2	Jack Miller	01:51.526	+0.090	6	347.2	Soft / Soft
3	Johann Zarco	01:51.537	+0.101	6	343.9	Medium / Soft
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:51.565	+0.129	6	345.0	Medium / Soft
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:51.864	+0.428	7	345.0	Medium / Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:51.918	+0.482	6	348.3	Medium / Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:52.026	+0.590	5	345.0	Medium / Soft
8	Augusto Fernandez	01:52.204	+0.768	6	347.2	Medium / Soft
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:52.228	+0.792	7	345.0	Medium / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:52.327	+0.891	4	345.0	Medium / Soft
11	Luca Marini	01:52.952	+1.516	6	343.9	Medium / Soft
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:52.980	+1.544	6	343.9	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 09.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:50.789	—	6	347.2	Medium / Soft
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:50.872	+0.083	6	342.8	Medium / Soft
3	Enea Bastianini	01:50.875	+0.086	7	345.0	Medium / Soft
4	Brad Binder	01:50.913	+0.124	5	349.5	Medium / Soft
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:50.928	+0.139	7	343.9	Medium / Soft
6	Marc Marquez	01:50.961	+0.172	6	346.1	Medium / Soft
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:51.019	+0.230	7	346.1	Soft / Soft
8	Pedro Acosta	01:51.130	+0.341	7	351.7	Medium / Soft
9	Alex Marquez	01:51.266	+0.477	6	342.8	Medium / Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	01:51.306	+0.517	6	343.9	Medium / Soft
11	Jack Miller	01:51.340	+0.551	6	348.3	Soft / Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	01:51.521	+0.732	4	346.1	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 09.03

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	20:41.287	12	11	Medium / Medium	1:52.641	+0.06%	9	Medium
2	Brad Binder	+0.548	9	11	Medium / Medium	1:52.713	+0.13%	9	Medium
3	Aleix Espargaro	+0.729	7	11	Medium / Medium	1:52.609	+0.03%	9	Medium
4	Francesco Bagnaia	+1.625	6	11	Medium / Medium	1:52.715	+0.13%	9	Medium
5	Marc Marquez	+1.872	5	11	Medium / Medium	1:52.571	—	9	Medium
6	Enea Bastianini	+2.322	4	11	Medium / Medium	1:52.803	+0.21%	9	Medium
7	Alex Marquez	+3.154	3	11	Medium / Medium	1:52.790	+0.20%	9	Medium
8	Pedro Acosta	+4.431	2	11	Medium / Medium	1:52.900	+0.29%	9	Medium
9	Maverick Viñales	+6.738	1	11	Medium / Medium	1:53.063	+0.44%	9	Medium
10	Jack Miller	+12.670	0	11	Soft / Medium	1:53.698	+1.00%	9	Medium
11	Marco Bezzecchi	+12.835	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:53.514	+0.84%	9	Medium
12	Fabio Quartararo	+12.863	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:53.601	+0.92%	9	Medium
13	Miguel Oliveira	+13.095	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:53.567	+0.89%	9	Medium
14	Raul Fernandez	+13.795	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:53.816	+1.11%	9	Medium
15	Joan Mir	+14.096	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:53.477	+0.81%	9	Medium
16	Johann Zarco	+14.840	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:53.548	+0.87%	9	Medium
17	Alex Rins	+15.629	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:53.556	+0.88%	9	Medium
18	Augusto Fernandez	+17.711	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:54.054	+1.32%	9	Medium
19	Takaaki Nakagami	+22.733	0	11	Soft / Soft	1:54.054	+1.32%	9	Soft
20	Franco Morbidelli	+23.267	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:54.499	+1.71%	9	Medium
21	Luca Marini	+25.553	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:54.848	+2.02%	9	Medium
Retired	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	2	Medium / Medium	—			—

Warm Up · 10.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Maverick Viñales	01:52.660	—	6	348.3	Medium / Medium
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:52.731	+0.071	6	355.2	Medium / Medium
3	Raul Fernandez	01:52.749	+0.089	5	347.2	Medium / Medium
4	Alex Marquez	01:52.753	+0.093	6	348.3	Medium / Medium
5	Pedro Acosta	01:52.842	+0.182	5	355.2	Medium / Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:52.873	+0.213	6	346.1	Medium / Medium
7	Marc Marquez	01:52.923	+0.263	5	352.9	Medium / Medium
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:53.011	+0.351	5	356.4	Medium / Medium
9	Enea Bastianini	01:53.240	+0.580	5	355.2	Medium / Medium
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:53.296	+0.636	6	355.2	Medium / Medium
11	Brad Binder	01:53.521	+0.861	5	358.8	Medium / Medium
12	Alex Rins	01:53.544	+0.884	6	355.2	Medium / Medium
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:53.570	+0.910	5	350.6	Medium / Medium
14	Jack Miller	01:53.572	+0.912	6	354.0	Medium / Medium
15	Augusto Fernandez	01:53.687	+1.027	5	354.0	Medium / Medium
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:53.802	+1.142	5	347.2	Medium / Medium
17	Jorge Martin	01:53.838	+1.178	5	352.9	Medium / Medium
18	Joan Mir	01:53.900	+1.240	5	350.6	Medium / Medium
19	Johann Zarco	01:54.002	+1.342	6	350.6	Medium / Medium
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:54.319	+1.659	5	345.0	Medium / Medium
21	Luca Marini	01:54.443	+1.783	6	354.0	Medium / Medium
22	Miguel Oliveira	01:54.998	+2.338	5	352.9	Medium / Medium

Race · 10.03

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	39:34.869	25	21	Medium / Medium	1:52.996	—	19	Medium
2	Brad Binder	+1.329	20	21	Medium / Medium	1:53.032	+0.03%	19	Medium
3	Jorge Martin	+1.933	16	21	Medium / Medium	1:53.068	+0.06%	19	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	+3.429	13	21	Medium / Medium	1:53.102	+0.09%	19	Medium
5	Enea Bastianini	+5.153	11	21	Medium / Medium	1:53.266	+0.24%	19	Medium
6	Alex Marquez	+6.791	10	21	Medium / Medium	1:53.211	+0.19%	19	Medium
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+9.161	9	21	Medium / Medium	1:53.296	+0.27%	19	Medium
8	Aleix Espargaro	+11.242	8	21	Medium / Medium	1:53.328	+0.29%	19	Medium
9	Pedro Acosta	+11.595	7	21	Medium / Medium	1:53.140	+0.13%	19	Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	+13.197	6	21	Medium / Medium	1:53.284	+0.26%	19	Medium
11	Fabio Quartararo	+17.701	5	21	Medium / Medium	1:53.792	+0.70%	19	Medium
12	Johann Zarco	+18.075	4	21	Medium / Medium	1:53.767	+0.68%	19	Medium
13	Joan Mir	+18.437	3	21	Medium / Medium	1:53.739	+0.66%	19	Medium
14	Marco Bezzecchi	+19.194	2	21	Medium / Medium	1:53.659	+0.59%	19	Medium
15	Miguel Oliveira	+20.717	1	21	Medium / Medium	1:53.729	+0.65%	19	Medium
16	Alex Rins	+24.093	0	21	Medium / Medium	1:53.743	+0.66%	19	Medium
17	Augusto Fernandez	+24.106	0	21	Medium / Medium	1:53.884	+0.79%	19	Medium
18	Franco Morbidelli	+24.641	0	21	Medium / Medium	1:53.962	+0.86%	19	Medium
19	Takaaki Nakagami	+25.556	0	21	Soft / Medium	1:54.016	+0.90%	19	Medium
20	Luca Marini	+42.422	0	21	Medium / Medium	1:54.772	+1.57%	19	Medium
21	Jack Miller	+42.761	0	21	Medium / Medium	1:54.437	+1.28%	18	Medium
Retired	Raul Fernandez		0	17	Medium / Medium	1:53.845	+0.75%	15	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:52.897*	—	+0.319	Medium	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:53.093*	+0.196	+0.320	Medium	3
Alex Marquez	1:53.106*	+0.209	+0.356	Medium	3
Jorge Martin	1:53.203*	+0.306	+0.457	Medium	3
Maverick Viñales	1:53.234*	+0.337	+0.292	Medium	4
Raul Fernandez	1:53.732	+0.835	+0.667	Medium	15
Johann Zarco	1:54.126*	+1.229	+0.344	Medium	3
Luca Marini	1:54.767	+1.870	+0.308	Medium	5

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Raul Fernandez	57%	1 ✓
2	Jack Miller	41%	2 ✓
3	Marco Bezzecchi	30%	5
4	Augusto Fernandez	21%	8
5	Johann Zarco	19%	3
6	Fabio Quartararo	10%	6
7	Miguel Oliveira	8%	4
8	Joan Mir	4%	7
9	Luca Marini	3%	11
10	Franco Morbidelli	3%	12
11	Takaaki Nakagami	4%	9
12	Alex Rins	1%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Pedro Acosta	34%	63%	88%	8
2	Alex Marquez	23%	51%	81%	9
3	Marc Marquez	15%	47%	77%	6
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	5%	33%	68%	7
5	Jorge Martin	4%	26%	53%	1
6	Francesco Bagnaia	7%	23%	55%	5
7	Enea Bastianini	2%	11%	38%	3
8	Brad Binder	3%	14%	38%	4
9	Maverick Viñales	3%	9%	29%	10
10	Jack Miller	2%	9%	26%	11
11	Raul Fernandez	3%	11%	30%	12
12	Aleix Espargaro	1%	3%	19%	2

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	33%	68%	84%	96%	3%	1
Aleix Espargaro	2	16%	43%	60%	73%	27%	3
Enea Bastianini	3	14%	47%	69%	87%	9%	6
Brad Binder	4	11%	40%	64%	92%	3%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	5	7%	29%	54%	90%	3%	4
Marc Marquez	6	5%	22%	44%	84%	7%	5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	4%	15%	33%	77%	11%	—
Pedro Acosta	8	3%	10%	25%	72%	11%	8
Alex Marquez	9	2%	6%	16%	60%	17%	7
Maverick Viñales	10	1%	5%	13%	61%	7%	9
Jack Miller	11	2%	5%	10%	52%	7%	10
Raul Fernandez	12	1%	3%	8%	47%	3%	14
Johann Zarco	13	1%	2%	5%	30%	11%	16
Miguel Oliveira	14	1%	2%	4%	24%	12%	13
Marco Bezzecchi	15	1%	2%	3%	19%	11%	11
Fabio Quartararo	16	0%	1%	2%	14%	11%	12
Joan Mir	17	0%	1%	1%	8%	22%	15
Augusto Fernandez	18	0%	1%	1%	6%	15%	18
Takaaki Nakagami	19	0%	1%	1%	4%	11%	19
Alex Rins	20	0%	0%	1%	3%	12%	17
Luca Marini	21	0%	0%	1%	2%	15%	21
Franco Morbidelli	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	3%	20

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	31%	59%	71%	77%	24%	3
Aleix Espargaro	2	21%	50%	66%	75%	24%	8
Enea Bastianini	3	9%	35%	58%	77%	20%	5
Brad Binder	4	14%	45%	67%	84%	14%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	5	6%	28%	52%	73%	25%	1
Marc Marquez	6	14%	46%	67%	81%	17%	4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	2%	14%	35%	76%	18%	7
Pedro Acosta	8	1%	8%	26%	72%	19%	9
Alex Marquez	9	2%	9%	26%	68%	24%	6
Maverick Viñales	10	0%	4%	17%	70%	13%	10
Jack Miller	11	0%	0%	3%	32%	25%	21
Raul Fernandez	12	0%	0%	1%	26%	19%	—
Johann Zarco	13	0%	1%	5%	47%	19%	12
Miguel Oliveira	14	0%	0%	3%	35%	21%	15
Marco Bezzecchi	15	0%	1%	4%	44%	16%	14
Fabio Quartararo	16	0%	0%	1%	25%	13%	11
Joan Mir	17	0%	0%	0%	18%	28%	13
Augusto Fernandez	18	0%	0%	0%	6%	20%	17
Takaaki Nakagami	19	0%	0%	0%	4%	14%	19
Alex Rins	20	0%	0%	0%	8%	23%	16
Luca Marini	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	8%	20
Franco Morbidelli	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	15%	18

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marc Marquez	25% → 46%	+21	5% → 14%
Jorge Martin	52% → 59%	+7	27% → 31%
Brad Binder	40% → 45%	+4	13% → 14%
Dropping
Enea Bastianini	43% → 35%	−9	15% → 9%
Pedro Acosta	15% → 8%	−6	3% → 1%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	19% → 14%	−5	4% → 2%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:52.571	—	+0.210	Medium	9
Aleix Espargaro	1:52.609	+0.038	+0.209	Medium	9
Jorge Martin	1:52.641	+0.070	+0.457	Medium	9
Brad Binder	1:52.713	+0.142	+0.327	Medium	9
Francesco Bagnaia	1:52.715	+0.144	+0.221	Medium	9
Alex Marquez	1:52.790	+0.219	+0.356	Medium	9
Enea Bastianini	1:52.803	+0.232	+0.319	Medium	9
Pedro Acosta	1:52.900	+0.329	+0.448	Medium	9
Maverick Viñales	1:53.063	+0.492	+0.292	Medium	9
Joan Mir	1:53.477	+0.906	+0.562	Medium	9
Marco Bezzecchi	1:53.514	+0.943	+0.553	Medium	9
Johann Zarco	1:53.548	+0.977	+0.344	Medium	9
Alex Rins	1:53.556	+0.985	+0.217	Medium	9
Miguel Oliveira	1:53.567	+0.996	+0.193	Medium	9
Fabio Quartararo	1:53.601	+1.030	+0.275	Medium	9
Jack Miller	1:53.698	+1.127	+0.105	Medium	9
Raul Fernandez	1:53.816	+1.245	+0.667	Medium	9
Takaaki Nakagami	1:54.054	+1.483	+0.359	Soft	9
Augusto Fernandez	1:54.054	+1.483	+0.437	Medium	9
Franco Morbidelli	1:54.499	+1.928	+0.512	Medium	9
Luca Marini	1:54.848	+2.277	+0.308	Medium	9

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,426 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.41%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.50%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%	Pedro Acosta +0.47%	Ai Ogura +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Alex Marquez +0.41%	Alex Rins +0.51%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Franco Morbidelli +0.31%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.29%	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%
S3	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.55%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.45%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%	Brad Binder +0.41%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Alex Marquez +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.47%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.49%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.19%	Raul Fernandez +0.43%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.19%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.21%
S4	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.19%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%	Joan Mir +0.37%
S2	Pol Espargaro +0.40%	Aleix Espargaro +0.43%	Enea Bastianini +0.47%
S3	Alex Rins +0.07%	Miguel Oliveira +0.19%	Johann Zarco +0.42%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Alex Rins +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Franco Morbidelli +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.08%	Jack Miller +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Danilo Petrucci +0.24%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.27%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.47%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.45%
S4	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Danilo Petrucci +0.22%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.26%
S2	Valentino Rossi +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.43%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.45%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.15%	Alex Rins +0.32%	Danilo Petrucci +0.35%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.28%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.34%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

57/100

Position index

14%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 56%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

Pending · no data yet

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/22

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Di Giannantonio

2.734 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P13 to P7.

Longest battle: Fabio Di Giannantonio vs Francesco Bagnaia (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:53.617	—	+0.221	Hard	20
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:53.622	+0.005	+0.320	Hard	20
Luca Marini	1:53.732	+0.115	+0.308	Hard	20
Maverick Viñales	1:53.785	+0.168	+0.292	Hard	20
Brad Binder	1:53.827	+0.210	+0.327	Hard	20
Fabio Quartararo	1:53.890	+0.273	+0.275	Hard	20
Enea Bastianini	1:53.960	+0.343	+0.319	Hard	20
Alex Marquez	1:54.046	+0.429	+0.356	Hard	20
Jack Miller	1:54.134	+0.517	+0.105	Hard	20
Jorge Martin	1:54.294	+0.677	+0.457	Hard	20

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	1/22	5%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	6/24	25%
2021	3/22	14%
2019	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	100%	+0.60%	+0.005	1	3	10.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.