Round 2 of 20 Aftermath

Portuguese Grand Prix 2024

Autódromo Internacional do Algarve Portugal

4.590 m · 25 laps · since 2020

22.03 – 24.03.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	41:18.138	25
2	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+0.882	20
3	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+5.362	16
4	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.129	13
5	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+16.437	11
6	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+19.403	10
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+20.130	9
8	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+21.549	8
9	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+23.929	7
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+28.195	6
11	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+28.244	5
12	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+29.271	4
13	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+31.334	3
14	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+34.932	2
15	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+38.267	1
16	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+40.174	0
17	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+40.775	0
18	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+52.362	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	19:49.636	12
2	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.039	9
3	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+1.122	7
4	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+4.155	6
5	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+4.329	5
6	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+4.384	4
7	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+5.088	3
8	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+6.161	2
9	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+7.501	1
10	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+8.484	0
11	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+9.529	0
12	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+10.519	0
13	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+11.458	0
14	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+14.035	0
15	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+14.853	0
16	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+16.049	0
17	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+16.398	0
18	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+24.907	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Enea Bastianini · 31%	Maverick Viñales · 20% · from P2	0.87 / 0.87	2.0 / 2.0
Race (after the grid)	Enea Bastianini · 28%	Jorge Martin · 14% · from P3	0.77 / 0.77	2.6 / 2.6
Race (after the sprint)	Maverick Viñales · 33%	Jorge Martin · 25% · from P3	0.73 / 0.77	2.6 / 2.5

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:38.996	—	+0.457	Medium	23
Maverick Viñales	1:39.057	+0.061	+0.292	Medium	22
Enea Bastianini	1:39.066	+0.070	+0.319	Medium	23
Pedro Acosta	1:39.191	+0.195	+0.448	Medium	23
Francesco Bagnaia	1:39.257	+0.261	+0.221	Medium	21
Marc Marquez	1:39.300	+0.304	+0.210	Medium	22
Brad Binder	1:39.337	+0.341	+0.327	Medium	23
Jack Miller	1:39.556	+0.560	+0.105	Medium	23
Aleix Espargaro	1:39.666	+0.670	+0.209	Medium	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:39.688	+0.692	+0.512	Medium	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:39.708	+0.712	+0.275	Medium	23
Marco Bezzecchi	1:39.778	+0.782	+0.553	Medium	23
Miguel Oliveira	1:39.802	+0.806	+0.193	Medium	23
Alex Marquez	1:39.824	+0.828	+0.356	Medium	14
Joan Mir	1:39.912	+0.916	+0.562	Medium	21
Augusto Fernandez	1:39.937	+0.941	+0.437	Medium	23
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:39.964	+0.968	+0.320	Medium	23
Takaaki Nakagami	1:40.168	+1.172	+0.359	Medium	20
Alex Rins	1:40.172	+1.176	+0.217	Medium	23
Johann Zarco	1:40.365	+1.369	+0.344	Medium	23
Luca Marini	1:40.492	+1.496	+0.308	Medium	22

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

25/25

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

0.882 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Joan Mir, from P20 to P12.

Longest battle: Jorge Martin vs Maverick Viñales (24 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

4/12

Laps led by the winner

Maverick Viñales

1.039 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P8 to P2.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Raul Fernandez (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:06:18	Alex Rins	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:08:20	Johann Zarco	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:08:48	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:08:57	Brad Binder	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:12:36	Johann Zarco	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:03:28	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:04:50	Alex Marquez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:08:23	Raul Fernandez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:31:39	Alex Marquez	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:39:30	Marc Marquez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:39:30	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:41:49	Francesco Bagnaia	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:42:22	Maverick Viñales	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Martin (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Augusto Fernandez	18	14	+4
Luca Marini	22	18	+4
Miguel Oliveira	15	11	+4
Marco Bezzecchi	6	13	−7
Aleix Espargaro	13	19	−6
Franco Morbidelli	17	22	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Brad Binder	10→4	+4.6
Pedro Acosta	7→3	+3.7
Jorge Martin	3→1	+3.1
Alex Rins	11→13	−3.7
Franco Morbidelli	17→18	−4.9
Marc Marquez	8→16	−8.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.75%	−0.002	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

24.4 °C

Air

max 24.6 °C

54%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

10 km/h

Wind

gusts 57 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 22.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:40.484	—	18	342.8	Soft / Medium	1:45.320	+3.67%	7	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:40.649	+0.165	17	337.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Brad Binder	01:40.689	+0.205	22	342.8	Medium / Medium	1:44.438	+2.80%	18	Medium
4	Jack Miller	01:40.840	+0.356	17	340.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.861	+0.377	21	338.5	Soft / Medium	1:43.604	+1.98%	16	Medium
6	Jorge Martin	01:40.906	+0.422	19	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.589	—	5	Medium
7	Alex Rins	01:40.934	+0.450	19	337.5	Soft / Medium	1:42.813	+1.21%	11	Medium
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:41.107	+0.623	18	340.6	Soft / Medium	1:43.231	+1.62%	11	Medium
9	Alex Marquez	01:41.119	+0.635	16	334.3	Soft / Medium	1:43.192	+1.58%	5	Medium
10	Joan Mir	01:41.190	+0.706	15	338.5	Soft / Medium	1:45.799	+4.14%	6	Medium
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:41.242	+0.758	20	340.6	Soft / Medium	1:42.185	+0.59%	16	Medium
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:41.277	+0.793	16	337.5	Soft / Medium	1:43.029	+1.42%	9	Medium
13	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.289	+0.805	19	341.7	Medium / Medium	1:45.462	+3.81%	7	Medium
14	Augusto Fernandez	01:41.531	+1.047	20	339.6	Medium / Medium	1:42.774	+1.17%	14	Medium
15	Pedro Acosta	01:41.606	+1.122	19	339.6	Medium / Medium	1:42.617	+1.01%	12	Medium
16	Johann Zarco	01:41.672	+1.188	17	337.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Raul Fernandez	01:41.687	+1.203	18	338.5	Soft / Medium	1:43.282	+1.67%	6	Medium
18	Marco Bezzecchi	01:41.715	+1.231	17	340.6	Soft / Medium	1:42.834	+1.23%	8	Medium
19	Enea Bastianini	01:41.728	+1.244	18	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:44.085	+2.46%	11	Medium
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:41.784	+1.300	16	338.5	Soft / Medium	1:46.314	+4.65%	5	Medium
21	Luca Marini	01:41.977	+1.493	17	337.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Takaaki Nakagami	01:42.082	+1.598	17	335.4	Soft / Medium	1:44.947	+3.31%	10	Medium

Practice · 22.03 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Enea Bastianini	01:38.057	—	21	341.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.137	+0.37%	10	Medium
2	Jack Miller	01:38.175	+0.118	23	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:40.226	+0.46%	7	Medium
3	Marc Marquez	01:38.210	+0.153	23	343.9	Medium / Soft	1:39.770	—	9	Medium
4	Jorge Martin	01:38.288	+0.231	25	342.8	Medium / Soft	1:39.825	+0.06%	14	Medium
5	Brad Binder	01:38.387	+0.330	23	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:40.009	+0.24%	9	Soft
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:38.409	+0.352	25	342.8	Hard / Soft	1:39.841	+0.07%	5	Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	01:38.411	+0.354	21	346.1	Hard / Soft	1:40.257	+0.49%	5	Medium
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.541	+0.484	21	342.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.552	+0.495	20	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:39.841	+0.07%	5	Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:38.560	+0.503	22	342.8	Soft / Soft	1:40.233	+0.46%	5	Medium
11	Pedro Acosta	01:38.599	+0.542	24	342.8	Soft / Soft	1:41.208	+1.44%	12	Soft
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.635	+0.578	21	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:40.306	+0.54%	6	Medium
13	Alex Marquez	01:38.809	+0.752	20	340.6	Soft / Soft	1:40.052	+0.28%	5	Medium
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.812	+0.755	20	342.8	Medium / Soft	1:40.759	+0.99%	5	Medium
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.882	+0.825	19	337.5	Hard / Soft	1:40.646	+0.88%	6	Soft
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:38.962	+0.905	22	338.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.048	+0.991	22	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Raul Fernandez	01:39.048	+0.991	21	349.5	Soft / Soft	1:40.090	+0.32%	5	Soft
19	Joan Mir	01:39.119	+1.062	24	340.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Johann Zarco	01:39.147	+1.090	21	341.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.639	+0.87%	5	Medium
21	Augusto Fernandez	01:39.160	+1.103	23	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:41.252	+1.49%	11	Soft
22	Luca Marini	01:39.781	+1.724	20	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 23.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:38.720	—	13	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:39.983	+0.34%	6	Soft
2	Pedro Acosta	01:39.015	+0.295	14	342.8	Medium / Soft	1:39.641	—	9	Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.208	+0.488	13	340.6	Hard / Soft	1:43.098	+3.47%	5	Soft
4	Marc Marquez	01:39.256	+0.536	13	341.7	Medium / Soft	1:39.812	+0.17%	5	Soft
5	Raul Fernandez	01:39.401	+0.681	11	337.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Jorge Martin	01:39.444	+0.724	14	345.0	Medium / Medium	1:39.812	+0.17%	7	Soft
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.450	+0.730	13	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:39.722	+0.08%	5	Soft
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.483	+0.763	13	341.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.008	+0.37%	5	Soft
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:39.510	+0.790	14	340.6	Medium / Soft	1:39.653	+0.01%	5	Soft
10	Brad Binder	01:39.523	+0.803	13	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:39.939	+0.30%	4	Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:39.537	+0.817	15	341.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.516	+0.88%	10	Soft
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.543	+0.823	11	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.608	+0.888	14	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:42.625	+3.00%	6	Soft
14	Alex Marquez	01:39.614	+0.894	13	341.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.148	+0.51%	6	Soft
15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:39.615	+0.895	11	340.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Enea Bastianini	01:39.692	+0.972	14	341.7	Medium / Soft	1:39.929	+0.29%	10	Soft
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.816	+1.096	13	341.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.046	+0.41%	4	Soft
18	Johann Zarco	01:39.872	+1.152	14	337.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.369	+0.73%	5	Soft
19	Jack Miller	01:39.922	+1.202	14	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:40.796	+1.16%	6	Soft
20	Augusto Fernandez	01:40.083	+1.363	14	341.7	Medium / Soft	1:41.629	+2.00%	6	Soft
21	Joan Mir	01:40.244	+1.524	13	338.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.413	+0.78%	5	Soft
22	Luca Marini	01:40.494	+1.774	12	341.7	Medium / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 23.03 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Alex Marquez	01:38.060	—	7	341.7	Medium / Soft
2	Pedro Acosta	01:38.065	+0.005	8	340.6	Soft / Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.279	+0.219	7	341.7	Hard / Soft
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.309	+0.249	6	339.6	Medium / Soft
5	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.385	+0.325	7	340.6	Medium / Soft
6	Raul Fernandez	01:38.448	+0.388	8	340.6	Medium / Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.454	+0.394	8	337.5	Medium / Soft
8	Augusto Fernandez	01:38.934	+0.874	7	337.5	Soft / Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:39.004	+0.944	8	339.6	Medium / Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:39.025	+0.965	8	335.4	Medium / Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.058	+0.998	7	336.4	Medium / Soft
12	Luca Marini	01:39.451	+1.391	7	339.6	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 23.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Enea Bastianini	01:37.706	—	7	342.8	Medium / Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:37.788	+0.082	7	341.7	Soft / Soft
3	Jorge Martin	01:37.812	+0.106	8	343.9	Medium / Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.922	+0.216	8	343.9	Medium / Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:38.032	+0.326	8	343.9	Soft / Soft
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:38.072	+0.366	8	341.7	Hard / Soft
7	Pedro Acosta	01:38.138	+0.432	4	339.6	Soft / Soft
8	Marc Marquez	01:38.147	+0.441	4	343.9	Soft / Soft
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.322	+0.616	8	341.7	Medium / Soft
10	Brad Binder	01:38.412	+0.706	6	342.8	Soft / Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:38.502	+0.796	7	338.5	Soft / Soft
Retired	Alex Marquez		—	0	0.0	— / —

Sprint · 23.03

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	19:49.636	12	12	Hard / Soft	1:38.884	—	10	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	+1.039	9	12	Hard / Soft	1:38.930	+0.05%	10	Soft
3	Jorge Martin	+1.122	7	12	Hard / Soft	1:38.899	+0.02%	10	Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	+4.155	6	12	Hard / Soft	1:38.942	+0.06%	10	Soft
5	Jack Miller	+4.329	5	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.406	+0.53%	10	Soft
6	Enea Bastianini	+4.384	4	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.264	+0.38%	10	Soft
7	Pedro Acosta	+5.088	3	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.169	+0.29%	10	Soft
8	Aleix Espargaro	+6.161	2	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.280	+0.40%	10	Soft
9	Fabio Quartararo	+7.501	1	12	Medium / Medium	1:39.443	+0.57%	10	Medium
10	Raul Fernandez	+8.484	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.501	+0.62%	10	Soft
11	Marco Bezzecchi	+9.529	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.598	+0.72%	10	Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	+10.519	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.512	+0.64%	10	Soft
13	Alex Marquez	+11.458	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.515	+0.64%	10	Soft
14	Joan Mir	+14.035	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.776	+0.90%	10	Soft
15	Augusto Fernandez	+14.853	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.861	+0.99%	10	Soft
16	Franco Morbidelli	+16.049	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.937	+1.07%	10	Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	+16.398	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.149	+1.28%	10	Soft
18	Luca Marini	+24.907	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:40.822	+1.96%	10	Soft
Retired	Alex Rins		0	2	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Brad Binder		0	3	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	3	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	5	Hard / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 24.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:39.093	—	6	345.0	Medium / Medium
2	Enea Bastianini	01:39.442	+0.349	6	345.0	Medium / Medium
3	Jack Miller	01:39.486	+0.393	6	343.9	Medium / Medium
4	Maverick Viñales	01:39.511	+0.418	6	336.4	Medium / Medium
5	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.546	+0.453	6	339.6	Soft / Medium
6	Pedro Acosta	01:39.550	+0.457	6	342.8	Medium / Medium
7	Brad Binder	01:39.550	+0.457	6	342.8	Medium / Medium
8	Raul Fernandez	01:39.559	+0.466	6	337.5	Medium / Medium
9	Alex Marquez	01:39.593	+0.500	6	341.7	Medium / Medium
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:39.633	+0.540	6	341.7	Medium / Medium
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.644	+0.551	6	340.6	Medium / Medium
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.716	+0.623	6	340.6	Medium / Medium
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.719	+0.626	6	341.7	Medium / Medium
14	Johann Zarco	01:39.742	+0.649	6	341.7	Medium / Medium
15	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.785	+0.692	6	340.6	Hard / Medium
16	Alex Rins	01:39.793	+0.700	6	339.6	Medium / Medium
17	Marco Bezzecchi	01:39.818	+0.725	6	343.9	Medium / Medium
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.893	+0.800	6	341.7	Medium / Medium
19	Augusto Fernandez	01:39.932	+0.839	6	339.6	Medium / Medium
20	Joan Mir	01:39.991	+0.898	6	336.4	Soft / Medium
21	Luca Marini	01:40.109	+1.016	6	342.8	Medium / Medium
22	Marc Marquez	01:41.587	+2.494	3	339.6	Medium / Medium

Race · 24.03

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	41:18.138	25	25	Hard / Medium	1:38.996	—	23	Medium
2	Enea Bastianini	+0.882	20	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.066	+0.07%	23	Medium
3	Pedro Acosta	+5.362	16	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.191	+0.20%	23	Medium
4	Brad Binder	+11.129	13	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.337	+0.34%	23	Medium
5	Jack Miller	+16.437	11	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.556	+0.57%	23	Medium
6	Marco Bezzecchi	+19.403	10	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.778	+0.79%	23	Medium
7	Fabio Quartararo	+20.130	9	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.708	+0.72%	23	Medium
8	Aleix Espargaro	+21.549	8	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.666	+0.68%	23	Medium
9	Miguel Oliveira	+23.929	7	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.802	+0.81%	23	Medium
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+28.195	6	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.964	+0.98%	23	Medium
11	Augusto Fernandez	+28.244	5	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.937	+0.95%	23	Medium
12	Joan Mir	+29.271	4	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.912	+0.93%	21	Medium
13	Alex Rins	+31.334	3	25	Hard / Medium	1:40.172	+1.19%	23	Medium
14	Takaaki Nakagami	+34.932	2	25	Hard / Medium	1:40.168	+1.18%	20	Medium
15	Johann Zarco	+38.267	1	25	Hard / Medium	1:40.365	+1.38%	23	Medium
16	Marc Marquez	+40.174	0	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.300	+0.31%	22	Medium
17	Luca Marini	+40.775	0	25	Hard / Medium	1:40.492	+1.51%	22	Medium
18	Franco Morbidelli	+52.362	0	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.688	+0.70%	23	Medium
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	17	Hard / Medium	1:39.824	+0.84%	14	Medium
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	23	Hard / Medium	1:39.257	+0.26%	21	Medium
Retired	Maverick Viñales		0	24	Hard / Medium	1:39.057	+0.06%	22	Medium
Retired	Raul Fernandez		0	3	Hard / Medium	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:39.509*	—	+0.457	Medium	3
Raul Fernandez	1:39.729*	+0.220	+0.667	Medium	3
Fabio Quartararo	1:39.849*	+0.340	+0.275	Medium	4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:39.954*	+0.445	+0.320	Medium	3
Alex Rins	1:40.128*	+0.619	+0.217	Medium	3
Johann Zarco	1:40.690*	+1.181	+0.344	Medium	3
Augusto Fernandez	1:40.694*	+1.185	+0.437	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Pedro Acosta	57%	2 ✓
2	Aleix Espargaro	41%	3
3	Alex Marquez	30%	1 ✓
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	21%	4
5	Franco Morbidelli	19%	7
6	Raul Fernandez	9%	6
7	Takaaki Nakagami	8%	11
8	Miguel Oliveira	4%	5
9	Johann Zarco	3%	9
10	Joan Mir	3%	10
11	Augusto Fernandez	4%	8
12	Luca Marini	1%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	34%	63%	87%	8
2	Maverick Viñales	23%	50%	80%	2
3	Jorge Martin	15%	47%	78%	3
4	Enea Bastianini	5%	33%	68%	1
5	Francesco Bagnaia	5%	27%	53%	4
6	Jack Miller	7%	23%	56%	5
7	Marco Bezzecchi	2%	12%	39%	6
8	Pedro Acosta	3%	14%	38%	7
9	Brad Binder	3%	9%	29%	10
10	Fabio Quartararo	2%	9%	26%	9
11	Alex Rins	3%	11%	29%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Enea Bastianini	1	31%	63%	78%	89%	9%	6
Maverick Viñales	2	20%	56%	74%	91%	6%	1
Jorge Martin	3	16%	51%	74%	94%	2%	3
Francesco Bagnaia	4	10%	39%	65%	92%	2%	4
Jack Miller	5	7%	27%	54%	88%	6%	5
Marco Bezzecchi	6	5%	19%	41%	80%	10%	11
Pedro Acosta	7	3%	14%	33%	78%	9%	7
Marc Marquez	8	2%	9%	25%	74%	7%	2
Fabio Quartararo	9	2%	7%	17%	65%	10%	9
Brad Binder	10	2%	5%	12%	62%	2%	—
Alex Rins	11	1%	3%	9%	48%	11%	—
Alex Marquez	12	1%	2%	5%	36%	16%	13
Aleix Espargaro	13	0%	1%	3%	25%	25%	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	14	0%	1%	3%	24%	14%	—
Miguel Oliveira	15	0%	1%	2%	18%	11%	12
Raul Fernandez	16	0%	1%	2%	14%	2%	10
Franco Morbidelli	17	0%	1%	1%	8%	2%	16
Augusto Fernandez	18	0%	1%	1%	5%	14%	15
Johann Zarco	19	0%	0%	1%	4%	10%	—
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	1%	2%	21%	14
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	10%	17
Luca Marini	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	14%	18

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Enea Bastianini	1	14%	42%	63%	78%	20%	2
Maverick Viñales	2	33%	65%	78%	86%	13%	—
Jorge Martin	3	25%	58%	70%	77%	23%	1
Francesco Bagnaia	4	11%	39%	59%	73%	25%	—
Jack Miller	5	3%	17%	36%	70%	25%	5
Marco Bezzecchi	6	0%	4%	14%	64%	15%	6
Pedro Acosta	7	5%	24%	50%	79%	17%	3
Marc Marquez	8	7%	31%	57%	80%	17%	16
Fabio Quartararo	9	1%	9%	27%	76%	12%	7
Brad Binder	10	0%	3%	13%	62%	14%	4
Alex Rins	11	0%	1%	7%	44%	22%	13
Alex Marquez	12	0%	1%	3%	35%	24%	—
Aleix Espargaro	13	0%	5%	18%	61%	24%	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	14	0%	0%	1%	20%	17%	10
Miguel Oliveira	15	0%	0%	3%	33%	21%	9
Raul Fernandez	16	0%	1%	4%	36%	21%	—
Franco Morbidelli	17	0%	0%	0%	7%	15%	18
Augusto Fernandez	18	0%	0%	0%	7%	19%	11
Johann Zarco	19	0%	0%	0%	2%	18%	15
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	28%	12
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	14%	14
Luca Marini	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%	17

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marc Marquez	15% → 31%	+17	3% → 7%
Jorge Martin	42% → 58%	+16	14% → 25%
Maverick Viñales	54% → 65%	+10	22% → 33%
Dropping
Marco Bezzecchi	24% → 4%	−20	5% → 0%
Enea Bastianini	55% → 42%	−13	28% → 14%
Jack Miller	27% → 17%	−10	7% → 3%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:38.884	—	+0.292	Soft	10
Jorge Martin	1:38.899	+0.015	+0.457	Soft	10
Marc Marquez	1:38.930	+0.046	+0.210	Soft	10
Francesco Bagnaia	1:38.942	+0.058	+0.221	Soft	10
Pedro Acosta	1:39.169	+0.285	+0.448	Soft	10
Enea Bastianini	1:39.264	+0.380	+0.319	Soft	10
Aleix Espargaro	1:39.280	+0.396	+0.209	Soft	10
Jack Miller	1:39.406	+0.522	+0.105	Soft	10
Fabio Quartararo	1:39.443	+0.559	+0.275	Medium	10
Raul Fernandez	1:39.501	+0.617	+0.667	Soft	10
Miguel Oliveira	1:39.512	+0.628	+0.193	Soft	10
Alex Marquez	1:39.515	+0.631	+0.356	Soft	10
Marco Bezzecchi	1:39.598	+0.714	+0.553	Soft	10
Joan Mir	1:39.776	+0.892	+0.562	Soft	10
Augusto Fernandez	1:39.861	+0.977	+0.437	Soft	10
Franco Morbidelli	1:39.937	+1.053	+0.512	Soft	10
Takaaki Nakagami	1:40.149	+1.265	+0.359	Soft	10
Luca Marini	1:40.822	+1.938	+0.308	Soft	10

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Jack Miller +0.32%	Jorge Martin +0.33%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Cal Crutchlow +0.50%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.57%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.13%	Pedro Acosta +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.15%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.52%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Alex Marquez +0.49%	Pedro Acosta +0.63%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.35%	Alex Marquez +0.37%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.16%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.07%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.26%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Pedro Acosta +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.13%	Joan Mir +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Johann Zarco +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Alex Marquez +0.36%
S2	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Aleix Espargaro +0.16%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Brad Binder +0.48%	Alex Rins +0.58%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.55%	Johann Zarco +0.60%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.02%	Jack Miller +0.33%
S2	Jack Miller +0.28%	Joan Mir +0.29%	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.76%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.37%	Alex Marquez +0.55%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Miguel Oliveira +0.08%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.29%
S2	Miguel Oliveira +0.17%	Franco Morbidelli +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S3	Miguel Oliveira +0.01%	Johann Zarco +0.43%	Stefan Bradl +0.46%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.02%	Cal Crutchlow +0.13%	Stefan Bradl +0.28%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

14/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

61%

Front row on the podium

0.68

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 100% of the time (between 21% and 100%; 1 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2020–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	31	—
2	Brad Binder	29	−2
3	Jorge Martin	28	−3
4	Marc Marquez	18	−13
5	Aleix Espargaro	15	−16
6	Enea Bastianini	15	−16

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

24/25

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.687 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P14 to P6.

Longest battle: Joan Mir vs Takaaki Nakagami (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:39.194	—	+0.292	Medium	23
Francesco Bagnaia	1:39.253	+0.059	+0.221	Medium	23
Jorge Martin	1:39.280	+0.086	+0.457	Medium	16
Marco Bezzecchi	1:39.295	+0.101	+0.553	Medium	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:39.321	+0.127	+0.275	Medium	22
Alex Marquez	1:39.360	+0.166	+0.356	Medium	23
Johann Zarco	1:39.414	+0.220	+0.344	Medium	22
Aleix Espargaro	1:39.427	+0.233	+0.209	Medium	23
Brad Binder	1:39.462	+0.268	+0.327	Medium	23
Jack Miller	1:39.499	+0.305	+0.105	Medium	23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2024Jorge MartinDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2020Miguel OliveiraKTM
2012Casey StonerHonda
2011Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 23% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	4/22	18%
2023	6/20	30%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	5/21	24%
2020	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	90%	+0.25%	+0.004	1	3	7.2
Soft	10%	+0.60%	+0.012	0	0	12.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.