Round 9 of 20 Aftermath

German Grand Prix 2024

3.671 m · 30 laps · since 1998

05.07 – 07.07.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	40:40.063	25
2	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+3.804	20
3	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+4.334	16
4	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+5.317	13
5	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+5.557	11
6	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+10.481	10
7	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+14.746	9
8	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+14.930	8
9	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+15.084	7
10	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+16.384	6
11	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+17.235	5
12	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+18.865	4
13	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+25.425	3
14	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+25.817	2
15	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+25.854	1
16	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+41.495	0
17	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+41.952	0
18	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+43.145	0
19	Remy Gardner	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+50.115	0
20	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Test Team	+59.047	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	20:18.904	12
2	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+0.676	9
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+1.311	7
4	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+1.458	6
5	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+5.600	5
6	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+6.281	4
7	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+6.284	3
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+9.061	2
9	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+9.201	1
10	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+10.800	0
11	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+13.815	0
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+13.960	0
13	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+14.432	0
14	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+15.329	0
15	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+15.430	0
16	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+15.493	0
17	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+16.205	0
18	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+20.321	0
19	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Test Team	+23.733	0
20	Remy Gardner	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+26.366	0
21	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+26.668	0
22	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+26.715	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Jorge Martin · 28% ✓	Jorge Martin · 28% · from P1	0.75 / 0.75	3.2 / 3.2
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 26%	Francesco Bagnaia · 11% · from P4	0.82 / 0.82	2.7 / 2.9
Race (after the sprint)	Jorge Martin · 39%	Francesco Bagnaia · 14% · from P4	0.88 / 0.82	2.2 / 2.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	1:21.093	—	+0.356	Medium	12
Jorge Martin	1:21.116	+0.023	+0.457	Medium	26
Miguel Oliveira	1:21.164	+0.071	+0.193	Medium	14
Marc Marquez	1:21.305	+0.212	+0.210	Medium	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:21.374	+0.281	+0.512	Medium	28
Brad Binder	1:21.483	+0.390	+0.327	Medium	17
Maverick Viñales	1:21.568	+0.475	+0.292	Medium	20
Marco Bezzecchi	1:21.576	+0.483	+0.553	Medium	28
Fabio Quartararo	1:21.797	+0.704	+0.275	Medium	27
Augusto Fernandez	1:21.951	+0.858	+0.437	Medium	23
Takaaki Nakagami	1:22.003	+0.910	+0.359	Medium	25
Johann Zarco	1:22.005	+0.912	+0.344	Medium	19
Stefan Bradl	1:22.515	+1.422	+0.530	Medium	28
Remy Gardner	1:23.192	+2.099	+1.660	Medium	15

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

7/30

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

3.804 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P13 to P2.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Pedro Acosta (24 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

13/15

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

0.676 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P13 to P6.

Longest battle: Jorge Martin vs Miguel Oliveira (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:14:14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:39:59	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, 16 second penalty for riders #5 #6 & #37 due to Technical regulations infringement.
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #6 Bradl

Sprint: 2 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Martin (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Marc Marquez	13	9	+4
Fabio Quartararo	14	12	+2
Remy Gardner	21	20	+1
Raul Fernandez	3	7	−4
Pedro Acosta	10	14	−4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	11	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Marc Marquez	13→2	+8.5
Enea Bastianini	9→4	+4.0
Francesco Bagnaia	4→1	+3.8
Augusto Fernandez	15→16	−4.2
Maverick Viñales	7→12	−5.3
Raul Fernandez	3→10	−5.9

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.59%	+0.025	1	3	10.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

19.6 °C

Air

max 19.8 °C

45%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

11 km/h

Wind

gusts 30 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 05.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:20.584	—	20	305.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:20.734	+0.150	17	300.0	Soft / Medium	1:21.470	—	5	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:20.878	+0.294	21	302.5	Medium / Medium	1:21.712	+0.30%	5	Medium
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:21.106	+0.522	22	301.6	Soft / Medium	1:22.071	+0.74%	10	Medium
5	Pedro Acosta	01:21.151	+0.567	20	304.2	Medium / Medium	1:22.698	+1.51%	6	Medium
6	Augusto Fernandez	01:21.151	+0.567	22	299.1	Soft / Medium	1:22.586	+1.37%	12	Medium
7	Enea Bastianini	01:21.211	+0.627	21	302.5	Soft / Medium	1:21.918	+0.55%	6	Medium
8	Alex Marquez	01:21.258	+0.674	24	299.1	Soft / Medium	1:21.935	+0.57%	13	Medium
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:21.297	+0.713	20	305.0	Soft / Medium	1:21.933	+0.57%	5	Medium
10	Raul Fernandez	01:21.410	+0.826	22	299.1	Medium / Medium	1:22.191	+0.89%	13	Medium
11	Jack Miller	01:21.589	+1.005	23	303.3	Medium / Medium	1:22.303	+1.02%	12	Medium
12	Marco Bezzecchi	01:21.642	+1.058	21	300.8	Soft / Medium	1:22.076	+0.74%	7	Medium
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:21.645	+1.061	25	302.5	Soft / Medium	1:22.645	+1.44%	11	Medium
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:21.733	+1.149	17	301.6	Soft / Medium	1:22.118	+0.80%	6	Medium
15	Brad Binder	01:21.737	+1.153	24	304.2	Medium / Medium	1:22.840	+1.68%	16	Medium
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:21.740	+1.156	19	297.5	Soft / Medium	1:21.990	+0.64%	10	Medium
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:22.127	+1.543	23	297.5	Soft / Medium	1:22.820	+1.66%	11	Medium
18	Johann Zarco	01:22.190	+1.606	24	299.1	Soft / Medium	1:22.779	+1.61%	14	Medium
19	Luca Marini	01:22.244	+1.660	23	299.1	Soft / Medium	1:22.768	+1.59%	12	Medium
20	Stefan Bradl	01:22.317	+1.733	23	299.1	Soft / Medium	1:23.908	+2.99%	13	Medium
21	Joan Mir	01:22.527	+1.943	22	300.0	Soft / Medium	1:23.690	+2.73%	11	Medium
22	Remy Gardner	01:22.969	+2.385	26	297.5	Soft / Medium	1:23.794	+2.85%	21	Medium
23	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.902	+12.318	3	252.9	Soft / Medium	—			—

Practice · 05.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:19.622	—	26	302.5	Soft / Soft	1:21.279	+0.39%	7	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:19.962	+0.340	32	305.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Miguel Oliveira	01:19.984	+0.362	31	304.2	Medium / Soft	1:21.533	+0.71%	5	Medium
4	Alex Marquez	01:20.029	+0.407	32	300.0	Soft / Soft	1:21.533	+0.71%	10	Medium
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:20.061	+0.439	30	305.9	Medium / Soft	1:20.960	—	5	Soft
6	Enea Bastianini	01:20.085	+0.463	25	305.9	Medium / Soft	1:21.256	+0.37%	5	Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:20.086	+0.464	28	304.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Pedro Acosta	01:20.142	+0.520	28	306.8	Soft / Soft	1:21.185	+0.28%	7	Soft
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:20.280	+0.658	23	300.0	Soft / Soft	1:22.602	+2.03%	5	Medium
10	Brad Binder	01:20.284	+0.662	31	305.0	Soft / Soft	1:22.172	+1.50%	5	Soft
11	Jack Miller	01:20.285	+0.663	28	305.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Raul Fernandez	01:20.344	+0.722	27	301.6	Soft / Soft	1:22.412	+1.79%	5	Medium
13	Marc Marquez	01:20.384	+0.762	7	300.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:20.407	+0.785	30	303.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Augusto Fernandez	01:20.613	+0.991	26	299.1	Soft / Soft	1:21.664	+0.87%	6	Soft
16	Johann Zarco	01:20.668	+1.046	27	300.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Luca Marini	01:20.868	+1.246	32	300.0	Soft / Soft	1:22.105	+1.41%	5	Soft
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:20.886	+1.264	29	298.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Marco Bezzecchi	01:20.901	+1.279	26	304.2	Medium / Soft	1:22.434	+1.82%	5	Soft
20	Remy Gardner	01:21.405	+1.783	27	301.6	Medium / Soft	1:22.925	+2.43%	11	Soft
21	Stefan Bradl	01:21.574	+1.952	30	300.8	Soft / Soft	1:22.190	+1.52%	5	Soft
22	Joan Mir	01:21.847	+2.225	26	300.0	Medium / Medium	—			—

FP2 · 06.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Miguel Oliveira	01:20.353	—	18	301.6	Hard / Soft	1:20.922	—	13	Soft
2	Jorge Martin	01:20.720	+0.367	13	300.8	Hard / Soft	1:21.109	+0.23%	4	Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:20.758	+0.405	13	300.8	Hard / Soft	1:21.289	+0.45%	7	Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:20.804	+0.451	17	302.5	Hard / Soft	1:21.306	+0.48%	11	Soft
5	Marc Marquez	01:20.825	+0.472	6	300.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Raul Fernandez	01:20.961	+0.608	14	299.1	Hard / Soft	1:21.436	+0.64%	7	Soft
7	Enea Bastianini	01:20.976	+0.623	14	302.5	Hard / Soft	1:21.642	+0.89%	10	Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:20.978	+0.625	15	300.8	Hard / Soft	1:21.292	+0.46%	5	Soft
9	Alex Marquez	01:21.051	+0.698	17	298.3	Hard / Soft	1:21.329	+0.50%	12	Soft
10	Pedro Acosta	01:21.124	+0.771	17	304.2	Hard / Soft	1:21.425	+0.62%	12	Soft
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:21.141	+0.788	16	300.0	Hard / Soft	1:21.399	+0.59%	12	Soft
12	Luca Marini	01:21.272	+0.919	13	297.5	Medium / Soft	1:21.658	+0.91%	5	Soft
13	Jack Miller	01:21.319	+0.966	15	302.5	Hard / Soft	1:21.584	+0.82%	8	Soft
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:21.360	+1.007	9	296.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Augusto Fernandez	01:21.386	+1.033	14	298.3	Hard / Soft	1:21.768	+1.05%	10	Soft
16	Brad Binder	01:21.425	+1.072	14	303.3	Hard / Soft	1:22.180	+1.56%	5	Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:21.489	+1.136	16	297.5	Medium / Medium	1:21.888	+1.19%	12	Medium
18	Johann Zarco	01:21.498	+1.145	14	297.5	Medium / Soft	1:21.942	+1.26%	6	Soft
19	Marco Bezzecchi	01:21.593	+1.240	14	300.0	Hard / Soft	1:21.790	+1.07%	8	Soft
20	Joan Mir	01:21.974	+1.621	12	299.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Stefan Bradl	01:22.049	+1.696	17	299.1	Medium / Soft	1:22.408	+1.84%	13	Soft
22	Remy Gardner	01:22.698	+2.345	17	298.3	Medium / Soft	1:22.926	+2.48%	10	Soft

Q1 · 06.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Raul Fernandez	01:19.678	—	7	300.0	— / —
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:20.115	+0.437	9	303.3	— / —
3	Marc Marquez	01:20.263	+0.585	8	301.6	Medium / Soft
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:20.310	+0.632	9	300.0	Hard / Soft
5	Augusto Fernandez	01:20.419	+0.741	9	300.0	Medium / Soft
6	Jack Miller	01:20.515	+0.837	9	305.0	Soft / Soft
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:20.553	+0.875	9	297.5	— / —
8	Luca Marini	01:20.565	+0.887	9	298.3	— / —
9	Johann Zarco	01:20.799	+1.121	9	300.0	Medium / Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:21.162	+1.484	9	299.1	Medium / Soft
11	Stefan Bradl	01:21.270	+1.592	9	301.6	Medium / Soft
12	Remy Gardner	01:21.297	+1.619	9	300.0	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 06.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:19.423	—	9	305.0	— / —
2	Miguel Oliveira	01:19.471	+0.048	10	304.2	— / —
3	Raul Fernandez	01:19.643	+0.220	8	300.8	Hard / Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:19.749	+0.326	9	302.5	Hard / Soft
5	Alex Marquez	01:19.791	+0.368	8	301.6	Hard / Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:19.946	+0.523	9	304.2	— / —
7	Maverick Viñales	01:19.950	+0.527	5	305.0	— / —
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:19.957	+0.534	8	300.8	— / —
9	Enea Bastianini	01:19.978	+0.555	9	305.0	Hard / Soft
10	Pedro Acosta	01:20.348	+0.925	9	305.9	Hard / Soft
11	Brad Binder	01:20.446	+1.023	9	305.0	Hard / Soft
12	Marco Bezzecchi	01:20.713	+1.290	8	304.2	Hard / Soft

Sprint · 06.07

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	20:18.904	12	15	Hard / Soft	1:21.184	+0.05%	13	Soft
2	Miguel Oliveira	+0.676	9	15	Hard / Soft	1:21.195	+0.06%	13	Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	+1.311	7	15	Hard / Soft	1:21.264	+0.15%	12	Soft
4	Enea Bastianini	+1.458	6	15	Hard / Soft	1:21.146	—	13	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	+5.600	5	15	Hard / Soft	1:21.582	+0.54%	13	Soft
6	Marc Marquez	+6.281	4	15	Hard / Soft	1:21.345	+0.25%	13	Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	+6.284	3	15	Hard / Soft	1:21.684	+0.66%	13	Soft
8	Brad Binder	+9.061	2	15	Hard / Soft	1:21.690	+0.67%	13	Soft
9	Alex Marquez	+9.201	1	15	Hard / Soft	1:21.679	+0.66%	13	Soft
10	Marco Bezzecchi	+10.800	0	15	Hard / Soft	1:21.784	+0.79%	13	Soft
11	Jack Miller	+13.815	0	15	Hard / Soft	1:22.091	+1.17%	13	Soft
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+13.960	0	15	Hard / Soft	1:21.994	+1.05%	13	Soft
13	Fabio Quartararo	+14.432	0	15	Hard / Soft	1:22.030	+1.09%	13	Soft
14	Raul Fernandez	+15.329	0	15	Hard / Soft	1:22.070	+1.14%	13	Soft
15	Luca Marini	+15.430	0	15	Hard / Soft	1:22.032	+1.09%	12	Soft
16	Augusto Fernandez	+15.493	0	15	Hard / Soft	1:21.993	+1.04%	13	Soft
17	Johann Zarco	+16.205	0	15	Hard / Medium	1:22.118	+1.20%	13	Medium
18	Takaaki Nakagami	+20.321	0	15	Hard / Medium	1:22.241	+1.35%	13	Medium
19	Stefan Bradl	+23.733	0	15	Hard / Soft	1:22.518	+1.69%	13	Soft
20	Remy Gardner	+26.366	0	15	Hard / Soft	1:22.709	+1.93%	13	Soft
21	Joan Mir	+26.668	0	15	Hard / Soft	1:22.560	+1.74%	13	Soft
22	Pedro Acosta	+26.715	0	15	Hard / Soft	1:21.816	+0.83%	12	Soft

Warm Up · 07.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:20.638	—	8	303.3	Medium / Medium	1:21.023	—	6	Medium
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:20.718	+0.080	8	305.9	Medium / Medium	1:21.616	+0.73%	5	Medium
3	Jorge Martin	01:20.802	+0.164	7	302.5	Soft / Medium	1:21.574	+0.68%	4	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:20.845	+0.207	7	300.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
5	Alex Marquez	01:20.880	+0.242	7	300.8	Medium / Medium	1:21.264	+0.30%	4	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:21.010	+0.372	7	298.3	Medium / Medium	1:21.210	+0.23%	5	Medium
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:21.042	+0.404	8	300.0	Medium / Medium	1:21.427	+0.50%	6	Medium
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:21.071	+0.433	8	300.8	Medium / Medium	1:21.600	+0.71%	6	Medium
9	Raul Fernandez	01:21.095	+0.457	7	297.5	Medium / Medium	1:21.394	+0.46%	5	Medium
10	Marco Bezzecchi	01:21.135	+0.497	8	301.6	Medium / Medium	1:21.258	+0.29%	6	Medium
11	Brad Binder	01:21.212	+0.574	8	304.2	Medium / Medium	1:21.500	+0.59%	6	Medium
12	Maverick Viñales	01:21.342	+0.704	8	299.1	Medium / Medium	1:21.577	+0.68%	6	Medium
13	Enea Bastianini	01:21.344	+0.706	7	300.8	Medium / Medium	1:21.858	+1.03%	5	Medium
14	Pedro Acosta	01:21.379	+0.741	7	304.2	Medium / Medium	1:22.162	+1.41%	5	Medium
15	Jack Miller	01:21.594	+0.956	8	304.2	Soft / Medium	1:21.706	+0.84%	6	Medium
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:21.646	+1.008	7	295.8	Soft / Medium	1:22.280	+1.55%	5	Medium
17	Luca Marini	01:21.660	+1.022	8	297.5	Medium / Medium	1:22.006	+1.21%	6	Medium
18	Augusto Fernandez	01:21.685	+1.047	8	300.0	Medium / Medium	1:21.962	+1.16%	6	Medium
19	Johann Zarco	01:21.690	+1.052	7	300.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Joan Mir	01:22.079	+1.441	8	299.1	Soft / Medium	1:22.234	+1.50%	6	Medium
21	Remy Gardner	01:22.159	+1.521	8	298.3	Medium / Medium	1:22.569	+1.91%	6	Medium
22	Stefan Bradl	01:22.492	+1.854	7	299.1	Medium / Soft	1:22.633	+1.99%	5	Soft

Race · 07.07

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	40:40.063	25	30	— / —	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	+3.804	20	30	Hard / Medium	1:21.305	+0.26%	25	Medium
3	Alex Marquez	+4.334	16	30	Hard / Medium	1:21.093	—	12	Medium
4	Enea Bastianini	+5.317	13	30	— / —	—			—
5	Franco Morbidelli	+5.557	11	30	Hard / Medium	1:21.374	+0.35%	28	Medium
6	Miguel Oliveira	+10.481	10	30	Hard / Medium	1:21.164	+0.09%	14	Medium
7	Pedro Acosta	+14.746	9	30	— / —	—			—
8	Marco Bezzecchi	+14.930	8	30	Hard / Medium	1:21.576	+0.60%	28	Medium
9	Brad Binder	+15.084	7	30	Hard / Medium	1:21.483	+0.48%	17	Medium
10	Raul Fernandez	+16.384	6	30	— / —	—			—
11	Fabio Quartararo	+17.235	5	30	Hard / Medium	1:21.797	+0.87%	27	Medium
12	Maverick Viñales	+18.865	4	30	Hard / Medium	1:21.568	+0.59%	20	Medium
13	Jack Miller	+25.425	3	30	— / —	—			—
14	Takaaki Nakagami	+25.817	2	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.003	+1.12%	25	Medium
15	Luca Marini	+25.854	1	30	— / —	—			—
16	Augusto Fernandez	+41.495	0	30	Hard / Medium	1:21.951	+1.06%	23	Medium
17	Johann Zarco	+41.952	0	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.005	+1.13%	19	Medium
18	Joan Mir	+43.145	0	30	— / —	—			—
19	Remy Gardner	+50.115	0	30	Hard / Medium	1:23.192	+2.59%	15	Medium
20	Stefan Bradl	+59.047	0	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.515	+1.75%	28	Medium
Retired	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	9	— / —	—			—
Retired	Jorge Martin		0	28	Hard / Medium	1:21.116	+0.03%	26	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Franco Morbidelli	1:20.809*	—	+0.512	Medium	3
Jorge Martin	1:21.120*	+0.311	+0.457	Medium	3
Maverick Viñales	1:21.244	+0.435	+0.292	Medium	6
Enea Bastianini	1:21.322	+0.513	+0.319	Medium	5
Alex Marquez	1:21.478*	+0.669	+0.356	Medium	4
Miguel Oliveira	1:21.510*	+0.701	+0.193	Medium	4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:21.516	+0.707	+0.320	Medium	7
Takaaki Nakagami	1:21.627	+0.818	+0.359	Medium	5
Augusto Fernandez	1:21.770*	+0.961	+0.437	Medium	4
Johann Zarco	1:21.883	+1.074	+0.344	Medium	5
Fabio Quartararo	1:21.902*	+1.093	+0.275	Medium	4
Raul Fernandez	1:22.326	+1.517	+0.667	Medium	6
Joan Mir	1:22.666*	+1.857	+0.562	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Raul Fernandez	57%	1 ✓
2	Marc Marquez	41%	3
3	Jack Miller	30%	6
4	Fabio Quartararo	21%	4
5	Augusto Fernandez	19%	5
6	Luca Marini	11%	8
7	Johann Zarco	8%	9
8	Takaaki Nakagami	4%	7
9	Marco Bezzecchi	3%	2 ✓
10	Joan Mir	3%	10
11	Stefan Bradl	4%	11
12	Remy Gardner	1%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jorge Martin	34%	64%	87%	1
2	Miguel Oliveira	23%	51%	80%	2
3	Maverick Viñales	14%	47%	77%	7
4	Francesco Bagnaia	5%	32%	67%	4
5	Alex Marquez	5%	26%	53%	5
6	Enea Bastianini	7%	23%	56%	9
7	Franco Morbidelli	2%	13%	40%	6
8	Raul Fernandez	3%	14%	37%	3
9	Pedro Acosta	3%	9%	29%	10
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	3%	9%	26%	8
11	Brad Binder	3%	10%	29%	11
12	Marco Bezzecchi	1%	4%	20%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Stefan Bradl	21	22	+1	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #6 Bradl

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	28%	62%	79%	92%	6%	1
Miguel Oliveira	2	18%	49%	68%	81%	16%	2
Raul Fernandez	3	14%	46%	70%	91%	6%	14
Francesco Bagnaia	4	11%	35%	58%	84%	12%	3
Alex Marquez	5	8%	26%	48%	78%	16%	9
Franco Morbidelli	6	6%	24%	48%	88%	2%	5
Maverick Viñales	7	5%	18%	37%	80%	9%	7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	3%	11%	25%	66%	18%	12
Enea Bastianini	9	2%	8%	17%	63%	15%	4
Pedro Acosta	10	2%	7%	15%	62%	6%	22
Brad Binder	11	1%	5%	11%	50%	12%	8
Marco Bezzecchi	12	1%	3%	7%	40%	15%	10
Marc Marquez	13	1%	2%	5%	33%	9%	6
Fabio Quartararo	14	0%	2%	4%	26%	12%	13
Augusto Fernandez	15	0%	1%	3%	20%	15%	16
Jack Miller	16	0%	1%	2%	17%	6%	11
Takaaki Nakagami	17	0%	1%	1%	10%	12%	18
Luca Marini	18	0%	1%	1%	7%	18%	15
Johann Zarco	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	18%	17
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	1%	3%	27%	21
Remy Gardner	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	14%	20
Stefan Bradl	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	20%	19

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	39%	65%	74%	78%	22%	—
Miguel Oliveira	2	24%	58%	70%	79%	21%	6
Raul Fernandez	3	0%	4%	13%	56%	20%	10
Francesco Bagnaia	4	14%	44%	61%	74%	24%	1
Alex Marquez	5	4%	22%	43%	72%	23%	3
Franco Morbidelli	6	6%	30%	51%	79%	17%	5
Maverick Viñales	7	2%	15%	35%	77%	13%	12
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	0%	6%	16%	62%	15%	—
Enea Bastianini	9	7%	32%	55%	79%	18%	4
Pedro Acosta	10	0%	4%	14%	54%	23%	7
Brad Binder	11	1%	9%	26%	72%	13%	9
Marco Bezzecchi	12	0%	3%	11%	54%	17%	8
Marc Marquez	13	1%	9%	25%	68%	17%	2
Fabio Quartararo	14	0%	1%	2%	30%	13%	11
Augusto Fernandez	15	0%	0%	2%	25%	24%	16
Jack Miller	16	0%	0%	1%	16%	25%	13
Takaaki Nakagami	17	0%	0%	0%	6%	15%	14
Luca Marini	18	0%	0%	0%	8%	7%	15
Johann Zarco	19	0%	0%	0%	7%	19%	17
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	0%	2%	30%	18
Remy Gardner	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	12%	19
Stefan Bradl	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	18%	20

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Enea Bastianini	9% → 32%	+23	2% → 7%
Jorge Martin	53% → 65%	+13	26% → 39%
Francesco Bagnaia	35% → 44%	+10	11% → 14%
Dropping
Raul Fernandez	44% → 4%	−40	15% → 0%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	15% → 6%	−9	3% → 0%
Maverick Viñales	21% → 15%	−6	4% → 2%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:21.146	—	+0.319	Soft	13
Jorge Martin	1:21.184	+0.038	+0.457	Soft	13
Miguel Oliveira	1:21.195	+0.049	+0.193	Soft	13
Francesco Bagnaia	1:21.264	+0.118	+0.221	Soft	12
Marc Marquez	1:21.345	+0.199	+0.210	Soft	13
Franco Morbidelli	1:21.582	+0.436	+0.512	Soft	13
Alex Marquez	1:21.679	+0.533	+0.356	Soft	13
Maverick Viñales	1:21.684	+0.538	+0.292	Soft	13
Brad Binder	1:21.690	+0.544	+0.327	Soft	13
Marco Bezzecchi	1:21.784	+0.638	+0.553	Soft	13
Pedro Acosta	1:21.816	+0.670	+0.448	Soft	12
Augusto Fernandez	1:21.993	+0.847	+0.437	Soft	13
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:21.994	+0.848	+0.320	Soft	13
Fabio Quartararo	1:22.030	+0.884	+0.275	Soft	13
Luca Marini	1:22.032	+0.886	+0.308	Soft	12
Raul Fernandez	1:22.070	+0.924	+0.667	Soft	13
Jack Miller	1:22.091	+0.945	+0.105	Soft	13
Johann Zarco	1:22.118	+0.972	+0.344	Medium	13
Takaaki Nakagami	1:22.241	+1.095	+0.359	Medium	13
Stefan Bradl	1:22.518	+1.372	+0.530	Soft	13
Joan Mir	1:22.560	+1.414	+0.562	Soft	13
Remy Gardner	1:22.709	+1.563	+1.660	Soft	13

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 3,649 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marc Marquez +0.38%	Jack Miller +0.44%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Jorge Martin +0.44%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.50%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.51%	Aleix Espargaro +0.52%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.30%	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Aleix Espargaro +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.30%
S2	Raul Fernandez +0.09%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.21%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.07%	Raul Fernandez +0.14%	Alex Marquez +0.17%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.42%	Raul Fernandez +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%
S2	Jack Miller +0.36%	Marc Marquez +0.59%	Alex Marquez +0.61%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.45%	Alex Marquez +0.56%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.26%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%	Brad Binder +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.20%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Miguel Oliveira +0.37%
S4	Miguel Oliveira	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller +0.32%	Luca Marini +0.36%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.70%
S2	Johann Zarco	Jack Miller +0.20%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.33%
S4	Miguel Oliveira	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Jorge Martin +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S2	Jack Miller +0.04%	Jorge Martin +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Miguel Oliveira +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Miguel Oliveira +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%	Joan Mir +0.88%
S2	Jack Miller +0.27%	Joan Mir +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S3	Takaaki Nakagami +0.11%	Miguel Oliveira +0.31%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.11%	Aleix Espargaro +0.25%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.12%	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Alex Rins +0.48%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Alex Rins +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%
S4	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.49%	Alex Rins +0.53%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Lorenzo +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.26%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Cal Crutchlow +0.24%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.39%	Danilo Petrucci +0.51%
S4	Alex Rins +0.12%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.13%	Andrea Iannone +0.14%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

95/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

38%

Front row on the podium

0.82

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Martin	200	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	190	−10
3	Marc Marquez	142	−58
4	Enea Bastianini	136	−64
5	Maverick Viñales	118	−82
6	Pedro Acosta	101	−99

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

25/30

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

0.064 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Miguel Oliveira, from P15 to P10.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Jorge Martin (30 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:21.602	—	+0.221	Medium	25
Johann Zarco	1:21.740	+0.138	+0.344	Medium	12
Brad Binder	1:21.747	+0.145	+0.327	Medium	16
Jack Miller	1:21.892	+0.290	+0.105	Medium	14
Enea Bastianini	1:22.049	+0.447	+0.319	Medium	28
Luca Marini	1:22.062	+0.460	+0.308	Medium	28
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:22.104	+0.502	+0.320	Medium	17
Franco Morbidelli	1:22.168	+0.566	+0.512	Medium	21
Augusto Fernandez	1:22.223	+0.621	+0.437	Medium	27
Maverick Viñales	1:22.259	+0.657	+0.292	Medium	4

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/20	25%
2025	8/18	44%
2024	2/22	9%
2023	2/19	11%
2022	7/23	30%
2021	3/22	14%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	90%	+0.62%	+0.015	1	3	8.3
Soft	11%	—%	—	0	0	14.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.