Round 16 of 20 Aftermath

Japanese Grand Prix 2024

4.801 m · 24 laps · since 1999

04.10 – 06.10.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	42:09.790	25
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+1.189	20
3	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+3.822	16
4	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+4.358	13
5	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+17.940	11
6	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+18.502	10
7	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+19.371	9
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+20.199	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+30.442	7
10	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+31.184	6
11	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+31.567	5
12	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+32.299	4
13	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+33.003	3
14	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+35.974	2
15	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+39.321	1
16	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+40.839	0
17	Remy Gardner	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing Team	+59.547	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	21:01.074	12
2	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+0.181	9
3	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+0.349	7
4	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+2.498	6
5	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+4.326	5
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+4.446	4
7	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+11.444	3
8	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.875	2
9	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+11.947	1
10	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+12.299	0
11	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+14.559	0
12	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+14.645	0
13	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+15.886	0
14	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+16.170	0
15	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+20.522	0
16	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+24.415	0
17	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+25.482	0
18	Remy Gardner	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing Team	+32.620	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Pedro Acosta · 33%	Francesco Bagnaia · 21% · from P2	0.85 / 0.85	2.2 / 2.2
Race (after the grid)	Pedro Acosta · 26%	Francesco Bagnaia · 20% · from P2	0.83 / 0.83	2.2 / 2.1
Race (after the sprint)	Pedro Acosta · 41%	Francesco Bagnaia · 19% · from P2	0.90 / 0.83	1.6 / 2.1

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:44.964	—	+0.221	Medium	22
Jorge Martin	1:45.092	+0.128	+0.457	Medium	20
Marc Marquez	1:45.206	+0.242	+0.210	Medium	21
Enea Bastianini	1:45.288	+0.324	+0.319	Medium	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:45.778	+0.814	+0.320	Medium	20
Franco Morbidelli	1:45.783	+0.819	+0.512	Medium	22
Marco Bezzecchi	1:45.812	+0.848	+0.553	Medium	22
Brad Binder	1:45.886	+0.922	+0.327	Medium	20
Augusto Fernandez	1:46.018	+1.054	+0.437	Medium	4
Maverick Viñales	1:46.056	+1.092	+0.292	Medium	8
Johann Zarco	1:46.294	+1.330	+0.344	Medium	22
Fabio Quartararo	1:46.306	+1.342	+0.275	Medium	21
Takaaki Nakagami	1:46.338	+1.374	+0.359	Soft	20
Aleix Espargaro	1:46.339	+1.375	+0.209	Medium	19
Luca Marini	1:46.393	+1.429	+0.308	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:46.584	+1.620	+0.105	Medium	22
Raul Fernandez	1:46.634	+1.670	+0.667	Medium	20
Alex Rins	1:46.647	+1.683	+0.217	Medium	21
Pedro Acosta	1:46.668	+1.704	+0.448	Medium	7
Remy Gardner	1:47.324	+2.360	+1.660	Medium	22

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

24/24

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

1.189 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jorge Martin, from P11 to P2.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Johann Zarco (21 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

6/12

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.181 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jorge Martin, from P11 to P4.

Longest battle: Fabio Di Giannantonio vs Franco Morbidelli (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:04:01	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:07:54	Brad Binder	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:09:47	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:11:24	Johann Zarco	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to irresponsible riding
Sprint	15:11:56	Johann Zarco	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Sprint	15:14:31	Takaaki Nakagami	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:17:08	Pedro Acosta	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:18:33	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:25:08	Joan Mir	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:04:07	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:04:12	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:06:02	Lorenzo Savadori	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:07:41	Pedro Acosta	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:13:48	Augusto Fernandez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:18:32		Red flag	White flag displayed
Race	14:22:35	Maverick Viñales	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:27:15	Pedro Acosta	Retired	Entered pits and retired

Race: 3 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 5 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jack Miller	14	5	+9
Jorge Martin	11	4	+7
Aleix Espargaro	15	10	+5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	14	−7
Maverick Viñales	3	9	−6
Marco Bezzecchi	8	12	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Jorge Martin	11→2	+7.3
Marc Marquez	9→3	+5.0
Aleix Espargaro	15→9	+2.8
Alex Rins	19→16	−1.6
Fabio Quartararo	12→12	−2.1
Raul Fernandez	13→15	−4.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	95%	+1.04%	+0.042	1	3	8.8
Soft	5%	+1.31%	+0.007	0	0	13.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

22.5 °C

Air

max 23.2 °C

89%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

6 km/h

Wind

gusts 19 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 04.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:45.209	—	9	311.2	Medium / Medium	1:45.538	—	6	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:45.318	+0.109	9	313.0	Medium / Medium	1:46.448	+0.86%	5	Medium
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:45.589	+0.380	8	308.5	Medium / Medium	1:46.833	+1.23%	6	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:45.781	+0.572	8	311.2	Soft / Medium	1:45.842	+0.29%	5	Medium
5	Jack Miller	01:45.782	+0.573	10	310.3	Medium / Medium	1:46.066	+0.50%	5	Medium
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:45.914	+0.705	8	311.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Joan Mir	01:45.935	+0.726	9	310.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
8	Johann Zarco	01:45.949	+0.740	6	313.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
9	Maverick Viñales	01:45.959	+0.750	7	308.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
10	Enea Bastianini	01:45.968	+0.759	8	311.2	Medium / Medium	1:46.334	+0.75%	6	Medium
11	Alex Marquez	01:45.985	+0.776	7	310.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.037	+0.828	6	310.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Pedro Acosta	01:46.062	+0.853	9	313.0	Medium / Medium	1:47.132	+1.51%	6	Medium
14	Alex Rins	01:46.090	+0.881	8	308.5	Soft / Medium	1:48.147	+2.47%	4	Medium
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.102	+0.893	8	313.9	Medium / Medium	1:47.928	+2.27%	6	Medium
16	Brad Binder	01:46.245	+1.036	9	311.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.296	+1.087	11	306.8	Medium / Medium	1:46.908	+1.30%	5	Medium
18	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.441	+1.232	10	311.2	Medium / Medium	1:49.990	+4.22%	6	Medium
19	Luca Marini	01:46.460	+1.251	8	310.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Raul Fernandez	01:46.987	+1.778	9	305.9	Medium / Medium	1:47.292	+1.66%	5	Medium
21	Augusto Fernandez	01:47.038	+1.829	7	306.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:48.642	+3.433	9	305.9	Soft / Medium	1:49.450	+3.71%	5	Medium
23	Remy Gardner	01:50.206	+4.997	9	305.0	Medium / Medium	1:50.548	+4.75%	5	Medium

Practice · 04.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Brad Binder	01:43.436	—	22	313.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:43.469	+0.033	21	308.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
3	Jorge Martin	01:43.568	+0.132	24	311.2	Hard / Soft	1:44.970	+0.01%	11	Soft
4	Pedro Acosta	01:43.583	+0.147	22	314.8	Hard / Soft	1:44.964	—	6	Soft
5	Enea Bastianini	01:43.605	+0.169	19	312.1	Hard / Soft	1:44.995	+0.03%	5	Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	01:43.720	+0.284	22	311.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:43.754	+0.318	20	315.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
8	Alex Marquez	01:44.033	+0.597	22	312.1	Hard / Soft	1:45.356	+0.37%	6	Soft
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:44.082	+0.646	20	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:45.078	+0.11%	5	Soft
10	Marco Bezzecchi	01:44.209	+0.773	25	311.2	Hard / Soft	1:45.195	+0.22%	7	Soft
11	Jack Miller	01:44.239	+0.803	20	310.3	Soft / Soft	1:45.019	+0.05%	5	Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:44.258	+0.822	25	308.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:44.326	+0.890	22	310.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:44.401	+0.965	24	306.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:44.470	+1.034	18	313.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
16	Joan Mir	01:44.670	+1.234	20	309.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Johann Zarco	01:44.685	+1.249	18	311.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Raul Fernandez	01:44.694	+1.258	17	312.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
19	Augusto Fernandez	01:44.869	+1.433	17	310.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
20	Alex Rins	01:44.950	+1.514	21	309.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Luca Marini	01:45.118	+1.682	23	308.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:45.863	+2.427	19	308.5	Hard / Soft	1:47.420	+2.34%	6	Soft
23	Remy Gardner	01:46.716	+3.280	22	307.6	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 05.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:44.569	—	12	318.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
2	Pedro Acosta	01:44.586	+0.017	13	319.5	Medium / Soft	1:47.008	+1.06%	5	Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:44.819	+0.250	13	314.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:44.934	+0.365	13	313.0	Hard / Soft	1:47.831	+1.84%	5	Soft
5	Brad Binder	01:45.064	+0.495	13	315.7	Soft / Soft	1:45.887	—	5	Soft
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:45.086	+0.517	15	314.8	Hard / Soft	1:46.862	+0.92%	6	Soft
7	Jorge Martin	01:45.158	+0.589	13	318.5	Medium / Soft	1:46.141	+0.24%	5	Soft
8	Marc Marquez	01:45.230	+0.661	13	313.9	Medium / Soft	1:47.018	+1.07%	5	Soft
9	Enea Bastianini	01:45.360	+0.791	12	316.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.403	+0.834	13	315.7	Hard / Soft	1:46.261	+0.35%	5	Soft
11	Jack Miller	01:45.414	+0.845	12	313.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Augusto Fernandez	01:45.440	+0.871	14	311.2	Medium / Soft	1:46.376	+0.46%	6	Soft
13	Joan Mir	01:45.491	+0.922	12	311.2	Medium / Soft	1:46.224	+0.32%	4	Soft
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.563	+0.994	12	314.8	Hard / Soft	1:46.554	+0.63%	6	Soft
15	Alex Marquez	01:45.579	+1.010	10	314.8	Medium / Soft	1:46.139	+0.24%	5	Soft
16	Johann Zarco	01:45.741	+1.172	10	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:47.606	+1.62%	5	Soft
17	Fabio Quartararo	01:45.779	+1.210	11	309.4	Hard / Soft	1:46.991	+1.04%	5	Soft
18	Luca Marini	01:45.873	+1.304	11	311.2	Hard / Soft	1:47.925	+1.93%	5	Soft
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:45.960	+1.391	12	311.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Alex Rins	01:46.073	+1.504	12	311.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
21	Raul Fernandez	01:46.096	+1.527	11	312.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:46.422	+1.853	9	310.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
23	Remy Gardner	01:46.717	+2.148	13	313.9	Soft / Soft	1:49.108	+3.04%	5	Soft

Q1 · 05.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:43.746	—	6	313.0	— / —
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:44.005	+0.259	8	308.5	— / —
3	Raul Fernandez	01:44.122	+0.376	8	311.2	Hard / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:44.193	+0.447	8	313.0	Soft / Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:44.202	+0.456	6	314.8	Hard / Soft
6	Johann Zarco	01:44.302	+0.556	8	313.0	Hard / Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:44.498	+0.752	8	313.0	— / —
8	Augusto Fernandez	01:44.547	+0.801	8	312.1	— / —
9	Alex Rins	01:44.552	+0.806	7	312.1	— / —
10	Luca Marini	01:44.648	+0.902	8	310.3	Hard / Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:44.886	+1.140	8	309.4	Medium / Soft
12	Lorenzo Savadori	01:45.422	+1.676	7	313.0	Hard / Soft
13	Remy Gardner	01:45.594	+1.848	8	311.2	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 05.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Pedro Acosta	01:43.018	—	8	318.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:43.264	+0.246	8	315.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
3	Maverick Viñales	01:43.441	+0.423	8	315.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
4	Enea Bastianini	01:43.539	+0.521	8	316.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
5	Brad Binder	01:43.661	+0.643	8	319.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:43.828	+0.810	8	316.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:43.998	+0.980	8	314.8	Hard / Soft	1:44.731	—	6	Soft
8	Marco Bezzecchi	01:44.073	+1.055	8	315.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
9	Marc Marquez	01:44.136	+1.118	8	315.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Alex Marquez	01:44.263	+1.245	8	313.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
11	Jorge Martin	01:44.303	+1.285	6	317.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Fabio Quartararo	01:44.497	+1.479	8	312.1	Hard / Soft	—			—

Sprint · 05.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	21:01.074	12	12	Hard / Soft	1:44.476	+0.31%	10	Soft
2	Enea Bastianini	+0.181	9	12	Hard / Soft	1:44.333	+0.17%	10	Soft
3	Marc Marquez	+0.349	7	12	Hard / Soft	1:44.400	+0.24%	10	Soft
4	Jorge Martin	+2.498	6	12	Hard / Soft	1:44.609	+0.44%	9	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	+4.326	5	12	Hard / Soft	1:44.774	+0.60%	10	Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+4.446	4	12	Hard / Soft	1:44.842	+0.66%	10	Soft
7	Alex Marquez	+11.444	3	12	Hard / Soft	1:45.474	+1.27%	10	Soft
8	Jack Miller	+11.875	2	12	Soft / Soft	1:45.572	+1.36%	10	Soft
9	Maverick Viñales	+11.947	1	12	Hard / Soft	1:45.500	+1.29%	9	Soft
10	Marco Bezzecchi	+12.299	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:45.387	+1.19%	10	Soft
11	Raul Fernandez	+14.559	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:45.566	+1.36%	10	Soft
12	Fabio Quartararo	+14.645	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:45.526	+1.32%	10	Soft
13	Luca Marini	+15.886	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:45.550	+1.34%	10	Soft
14	Johann Zarco	+16.170	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:45.348	+1.15%	9	Soft
15	Augusto Fernandez	+20.522	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:46.054	+1.83%	10	Soft
16	Alex Rins	+24.415	0	12	Soft / Soft	1:46.187	+1.95%	10	Soft
17	Lorenzo Savadori	+25.482	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:46.451	+2.21%	10	Soft
18	Remy Gardner	+32.620	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:47.057	+2.79%	10	Soft
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	9	Hard / Soft	1:45.244	+1.05%	6	Soft
Retired	Brad Binder		0	2	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		0	11	Hard / Soft	1:45.399	+1.20%	9	Soft
Retired	Pedro Acosta		0	8	Hard / Soft	1:44.153	—	6	Soft
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		0	4	Hard / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 06.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:44.359	—	6	315.7	Hard / Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:44.364	+0.005	6	314.8	Hard / Medium
3	Enea Bastianini	01:44.460	+0.101	6	313.0	Hard / Medium
4	Pedro Acosta	01:44.514	+0.155	6	318.5	Hard / Medium
5	Marc Marquez	01:44.617	+0.258	6	313.0	Hard / Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:44.681	+0.322	6	314.8	Hard / Medium
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:44.779	+0.420	6	314.8	Hard / Medium
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:44.966	+0.607	6	313.0	Hard / Medium
9	Johann Zarco	01:45.025	+0.666	6	312.1	Hard / Medium
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:45.106	+0.747	6	309.4	Hard / Medium
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:45.131	+0.772	6	306.8	Hard / Medium
12	Maverick Viñales	01:45.132	+0.773	6	310.3	Hard / Medium
13	Raul Fernandez	01:45.206	+0.847	6	309.4	Hard / Medium
14	Alex Marquez	01:45.213	+0.854	6	313.0	Hard / Medium
15	Jack Miller	01:45.217	+0.858	6	312.1	Hard / Medium
16	Brad Binder	01:45.229	+0.870	6	312.1	Hard / Medium
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.236	+0.877	6	315.7	Hard / Medium
18	Alex Rins	01:45.575	+1.216	6	312.1	Hard / Medium
19	Augusto Fernandez	01:45.653	+1.294	6	313.0	Hard / Medium
20	Luca Marini	01:45.720	+1.361	6	312.1	Hard / Medium
21	Joan Mir	01:45.824	+1.465	6	310.3	Hard / Medium
22	Remy Gardner	01:46.173	+1.814	6	313.0	Soft / Soft
23	Lorenzo Savadori	02:04.929	+20.570	3	303.3	Hard / Medium

Race · 06.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	42:09.790	25	24	Hard / Medium	1:44.964	—	22	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	+1.189	20	24	Hard / Medium	1:45.092	+0.12%	20	Medium
3	Marc Marquez	+3.822	16	24	Hard / Medium	1:45.206	+0.23%	21	Medium
4	Enea Bastianini	+4.358	13	24	Hard / Medium	1:45.288	+0.31%	21	Medium
5	Franco Morbidelli	+17.940	11	24	Hard / Medium	1:45.783	+0.78%	22	Medium
6	Brad Binder	+18.502	10	24	Hard / Medium	1:45.886	+0.88%	20	Medium
7	Marco Bezzecchi	+19.371	9	24	Hard / Medium	1:45.812	+0.81%	22	Medium
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+20.199	8	24	Hard / Medium	1:45.778	+0.78%	20	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	+30.442	7	24	Hard / Medium	1:46.339	+1.31%	19	Medium
10	Jack Miller	+31.184	6	24	Hard / Medium	1:46.584	+1.54%	22	Medium
11	Johann Zarco	+31.567	5	24	Hard / Medium	1:46.294	+1.27%	22	Medium
12	Fabio Quartararo	+32.299	4	24	Hard / Medium	1:46.306	+1.28%	21	Medium
13	Takaaki Nakagami	+33.003	3	24	Hard / Soft	1:46.338	+1.31%	20	Soft
14	Luca Marini	+35.974	2	24	Hard / Medium	1:46.393	+1.36%	22	Medium
15	Raul Fernandez	+39.321	1	24	Hard / Medium	1:46.634	+1.59%	20	Medium
16	Alex Rins	+40.839	0	24	Hard / Medium	1:46.647	+1.60%	21	Medium
17	Remy Gardner	+59.547	0	24	Hard / Medium	1:47.324	+2.25%	22	Medium
Out on lap 1	Alex Marquez		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Augusto Fernandez		0	6	Hard / Medium	1:46.018	+1.00%	4	Medium
Out on lap 1	Joan Mir		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Lorenzo Savadori		0	1	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Maverick Viñales		0	11	Hard / Medium	1:46.056	+1.04%	8	Medium
Retired	Pedro Acosta		0	12	Hard / Medium	1:46.668	+1.62%	7	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Jack Miller	56%	4
2	Franco Morbidelli	42%	1 ✓
3	Aleix Espargaro	29%	5
4	Joan Mir	21%	7
5	Fabio Quartararo	19%	2 ✓
6	Takaaki Nakagami	10%	11
7	Augusto Fernandez	7%	8
8	Johann Zarco	4%	6
9	Raul Fernandez	3%	3
10	Luca Marini	3%	10
11	Alex Rins	4%	9
12	Lorenzo Savadori	2%	12
13	Remy Gardner	1%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Pedro Acosta	36%	64%	87%	1
2	Brad Binder	22%	52%	81%	5
3	Francesco Bagnaia	14%	46%	76%	2
4	Maverick Viñales	5%	32%	67%	3
5	Marc Marquez	4%	25%	53%	9
6	Jorge Martin	6%	22%	56%	11
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	2%	13%	40%	7
8	Enea Bastianini	2%	15%	38%	4
9	Marco Bezzecchi	3%	9%	30%	8
10	Alex Marquez	2%	9%	26%	10
11	Franco Morbidelli	2%	10%	29%	6
12	Fabio Quartararo	1%	4%	20%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Pedro Acosta	1	33%	67%	84%	94%	4%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	2	21%	54%	71%	86%	12%	1
Maverick Viñales	3	14%	47%	69%	89%	7%	9
Enea Bastianini	4	9%	36%	59%	84%	11%	2
Brad Binder	5	6%	27%	53%	85%	9%	—
Franco Morbidelli	6	5%	22%	43%	84%	7%	5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	3%	14%	32%	72%	17%	6
Marco Bezzecchi	8	2%	10%	25%	68%	17%	10
Marc Marquez	9	2%	7%	18%	64%	13%	3
Alex Marquez	10	1%	5%	13%	57%	13%	7
Jorge Martin	11	1%	4%	10%	56%	4%	4
Fabio Quartararo	12	1%	3%	8%	43%	9%	12
Raul Fernandez	13	1%	2%	5%	35%	5%	11
Jack Miller	14	0%	1%	4%	28%	4%	8
Aleix Espargaro	15	0%	1%	2%	16%	25%	—
Johann Zarco	16	0%	1%	2%	14%	17%	14
Joan Mir	17	0%	0%	1%	8%	25%	—
Augusto Fernandez	18	0%	0%	1%	6%	17%	15
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	1%	4%	18%	16
Luca Marini	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	15%	13
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	9%	—
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	17
Remy Gardner	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	10%	18

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Pedro Acosta	1	41%	68%	76%	80%	20%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	2	19%	49%	65%	75%	24%	1
Maverick Viñales	3	1%	10%	27%	77%	13%	—
Enea Bastianini	4	17%	50%	69%	82%	17%	4
Brad Binder	5	7%	34%	58%	84%	13%	6
Franco Morbidelli	6	3%	19%	41%	77%	16%	5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	3%	19%	41%	78%	17%	8
Marco Bezzecchi	8	1%	7%	21%	69%	15%	7
Marc Marquez	9	7%	30%	54%	80%	17%	3
Alex Marquez	10	0%	2%	7%	49%	24%	—
Jorge Martin	11	2%	10%	29%	67%	22%	2
Fabio Quartararo	12	0%	0%	2%	28%	13%	12
Raul Fernandez	13	0%	0%	2%	26%	21%	15
Jack Miller	14	0%	0%	0%	14%	25%	10
Aleix Espargaro	15	0%	1%	5%	44%	24%	9
Johann Zarco	16	0%	1%	3%	36%	18%	11
Joan Mir	17	0%	0%	2%	20%	30%	—
Augusto Fernandez	18	0%	0%	0%	4%	25%	—
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	0%	3%	22%	16
Luca Marini	20	0%	0%	0%	8%	9%	14
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	14%	13
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	23%	—
Remy Gardner	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	11%	17

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marc Marquez	9% → 30%	+21	2% → 7%
Pedro Acosta	53% → 68%	+15	26% → 41%
Enea Bastianini	37% → 50%	+13	11% → 17%
Dropping
Maverick Viñales	47% → 10%	−37	17% → 1%
Marco Bezzecchi	14% → 7%	−7	3% → 1%
Franco Morbidelli	24% → 19%	−5	6% → 3%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Pedro Acosta	1:44.153	—	+0.448	Soft	6
Enea Bastianini	1:44.333	+0.180	+0.319	Soft	10
Marc Marquez	1:44.400	+0.247	+0.210	Soft	10
Francesco Bagnaia	1:44.476	+0.323	+0.221	Soft	10
Jorge Martin	1:44.609	+0.456	+0.457	Soft	9
Franco Morbidelli	1:44.774	+0.621	+0.512	Soft	10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:44.842	+0.689	+0.320	Soft	10
Aleix Espargaro	1:45.244	+1.091	+0.209	Soft	6
Johann Zarco	1:45.348	+1.195	+0.344	Soft	9
Marco Bezzecchi	1:45.387	+1.234	+0.553	Soft	10
Joan Mir	1:45.399	+1.246	+0.562	Soft	9
Alex Marquez	1:45.474	+1.321	+0.356	Soft	10
Maverick Viñales	1:45.500	+1.347	+0.292	Soft	9
Fabio Quartararo	1:45.526	+1.373	+0.275	Soft	10
Luca Marini	1:45.550	+1.397	+0.308	Soft	10
Raul Fernandez	1:45.566	+1.413	+0.667	Soft	10
Jack Miller	1:45.572	+1.419	+0.105	Soft	10
Augusto Fernandez	1:46.054	+1.901	+0.437	Soft	10
Alex Rins	1:46.187	+2.034	+0.217	Soft	10
Lorenzo Savadori	1:46.451	+2.298	+0.781	Soft	10
Remy Gardner	1:47.057	+2.904	+1.660	Soft	10

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,812 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marc Marquez +0.28%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Luca Marini +0.32%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.21%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Brad Binder +0.65%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.43%
S4	Pedro Acosta	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Brad Binder +0.23%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.14%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Augusto Fernandez +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.10%	Jorge Martin +0.15%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Miguel Oliveira +0.38%
S2	Jack Miller	Aleix Espargaro +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.28%	Marc Marquez +0.35%
S4	Jack Miller	Francesco Bagnaia +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.33%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.24%
S4	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.61%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Dovizioso +0.21%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Cal Crutchlow +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.50%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.37%	Cal Crutchlow +0.40%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Cal Crutchlow +0.25%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

24/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Martin	366	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	345	−21
3	Enea Bastianini	291	−75
4	Marc Marquez	288	−78
5	Pedro Acosta	181	−185
6	Brad Binder	173	−193

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

162

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

7/12

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

1.413 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Takaaki Nakagami, from P18 to P12.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Jorge Martin (6 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Johann Zarco	1:58.365	—	+0.344	Wet-Medium	9
Aleix Espargaro	1:58.487	+0.122	+0.209	Wet-Soft	9
Marc Marquez	1:58.549	+0.184	+0.210	Wet-Medium	9
Joan Mir	1:58.685	+0.320	+0.562	Wet-Medium	9
Marco Bezzecchi	1:58.804	+0.439	+0.553	Wet-Medium	9
Francesco Bagnaia	1:58.812	+0.447	+0.221	Wet-Medium	9
Maverick Viñales	1:58.826	+0.461	+0.292	Wet-Medium	8
Jorge Martin	1:58.845	+0.480	+0.457	Wet-Medium	9
Cal Crutchlow	1:58.859	+0.494	+0.729	Wet-Medium	8
Augusto Fernandez	1:58.999	+0.634	+0.437	Wet-Soft	9

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Jack MillerDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 18% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	6/23	26%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	5/25	20%
2019	2/22	9%
2018	4/25	16%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Wet-Medium	71%	+1.00%	+0.034	1	3	10.0
Wet-Soft	24%	+1.12%	+0.067	0	0	8.3
Medium	5%	+6.76%	−1.244	0	0	17.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.