Round 17 of 20 Aftermath

Australian Grand Prix 2024

4.445 m · 27 laps · since 1989

18.10 – 20.10.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	39:47.702	25
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+0.997	20
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+10.100	16
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+12.997	13
5	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+13.310	11
6	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+15.434	10
7	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+15.450	9
8	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+16.636	8
9	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+18.757	7
10	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+19.345	6
11	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+19.932	5
12	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+20.295	4
13	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+22.210	3
14	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+24.239	2
15	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+24.591	1
16	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+30.499	0
17	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+30.533	0
18	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+30.765	0
19	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+45.393	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	19:13.301	12
2	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.520	9
3	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+4.368	7
4	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+6.879	6
5	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+9.623	5
6	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+15.249	4
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+15.905	3
8	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+19.280	2
9	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+21.126	1
10	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+21.194	0
11	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+21.379	0
12	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+21.483	0
13	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+23.528	0
14	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+34.055	0
15	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+38.324	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Jorge Martin · 32% ✓	Jorge Martin · 32% · from P1	0.84 / 0.84	2.9 / 2.9
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 26%	Marc Marquez · 22% · from P2	0.53 / 0.53	3.8 / 3.8
Race (after the sprint)	Jorge Martin · 39%	Marc Marquez · 29% · from P2	0.65 / 0.53	2.9 / 3.8

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:28.122	—	+0.210	Soft	25
Jorge Martin	1:28.207	+0.085	+0.457	Soft	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:28.377	+0.255	+0.221	Soft	25
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:28.565	+0.443	+0.320	Soft	25
Enea Bastianini	1:28.630	+0.508	+0.319	Soft	25
Marco Bezzecchi	1:28.642	+0.520	+0.553	Soft	24
Maverick Viñales	1:28.682	+0.560	+0.292	Soft	25
Brad Binder	1:28.697	+0.575	+0.327	Soft	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:28.750	+0.628	+0.512	Soft	25
Johann Zarco	1:28.755	+0.633	+0.344	Soft	25
Jack Miller	1:28.819	+0.697	+0.105	Soft	25
Raul Fernandez	1:28.850	+0.728	+0.667	Soft	25
Fabio Quartararo	1:28.858	+0.736	+0.275	Soft	25
Alex Marquez	1:28.906	+0.784	+0.356	Soft	25
Alex Rins	1:28.983	+0.861	+0.217	Soft	25
Takaaki Nakagami	1:28.999	+0.877	+0.359	Soft	25
Aleix Espargaro	1:29.034	+0.912	+0.209	Soft	25
Luca Marini	1:29.044	+0.922	+0.308	Soft	25
Joan Mir	1:29.222	+1.100	+0.562	Soft	23
Augusto Fernandez	1:29.253	+1.131	+0.437	Soft	25
Lorenzo Savadori	1:30.686	+2.564	+0.781	Soft	15

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.997 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P18 to P9.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Luca Marini (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

13/13

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

1.520 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Aleix Espargaro, from P20 to P8.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Luca Marini (9 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:09:40	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:10:30	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:13:58	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:18:06	Pedro Acosta	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:18:42	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:18:42	Maverick Viñales	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:19:28	Brad Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, 8 second penalty for rider #49 due to Technical regulations infringement.
Race	14:03:36	Alex Marquez	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:03:38	Marco Bezzecchi	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:04:40	Alex Marquez	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	14:07:43	Marco Bezzecchi	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	14:08:47	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:11:19	Luca Marini	Position penalty	To drop 1 position due to overtaking under yellow flag
Race	14:12:00	Luca Marini	Position penalty	To drop 1 position - COMPLETED
Race	14:29:35	Lorenzo Savadori	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:40:06	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards long lap penalty for riders #72 & #73 & grid penalty for rider #30

Sprint: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Martin (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Fabio Quartararo	18	10	+8
Brad Binder	11	5	+6
Enea Bastianini	10	7	+3
Alex Marquez	8	20	−12
Raul Fernandez	6	13	−7
Maverick Viñales	3	8	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Fabio Di Giannantonio	12→4	+5.9
Fabio Quartararo	18→9	+4.8
Enea Bastianini	10→5	+3.6
Alex Rins	9→13	−5.0
Alex Marquez	8→15	−7.7
Marco Bezzecchi	4→19	−14.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.79%	−0.006	1	3	10.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

15.4 °C

Air

max 15.5 °C

78%

Humidity

0.7 mm

Rain

23 km/h

Wind

gusts 38 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

Practice · 18.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:27.770	—	24	335.4	Medium / Soft	1:29.982	+0.85%	7	Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:27.872	+0.102	25	338.6	Medium / Soft	1:30.120	+1.00%	13	Medium
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:27.958	+0.188	26	342.9	Hard / Soft	1:29.828	+0.68%	10	Soft
4	Jorge Martin	01:27.967	+0.197	26	345.0	Hard / Soft	1:29.226	—	5	Soft
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:28.013	+0.243	22	345.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Maverick Viñales	01:28.160	+0.390	27	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:30.276	+1.18%	11	Soft
7	Brad Binder	01:28.265	+0.495	25	344.0	Hard / Soft	1:30.123	+1.01%	11	Soft
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:28.312	+0.542	23	338.6	Medium / Soft	1:30.528	+1.46%	6	Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:28.320	+0.550	28	340.7	Hard / Soft	1:31.452	+2.50%	6	Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:28.428	+0.658	25	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:30.321	+1.23%	5	Soft
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:28.443	+0.673	25	333.4	Hard / Soft	1:31.856	+2.95%	7	Soft
12	Jack Miller	01:28.469	+0.699	24	339.6	Hard / Soft	1:29.560	+0.37%	5	Soft
13	Pedro Acosta	01:28.528	+0.758	24	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:29.736	+0.57%	13	Soft
14	Johann Zarco	01:28.576	+0.806	24	342.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Augusto Fernandez	01:28.628	+0.858	22	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:32.358	+3.51%	5	Soft
16	Enea Bastianini	01:28.759	+0.989	26	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.347	+2.38%	6	Soft
17	Joan Mir	01:28.773	+1.003	25	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:30.859	+1.83%	7	Soft
18	Aleix Espargaro	01:28.782	+1.012	26	340.7	Hard / Soft	1:31.767	+2.85%	11	Soft
19	Luca Marini	01:28.820	+1.050	26	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.690	+2.76%	5	Soft
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:29.293	+1.523	27	334.4	Medium / Soft	1:31.392	+2.43%	5	Soft
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:29.869	+2.099	21	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:31.436	+2.48%	9	Medium
22	Raul Fernandez	01:30.058	+2.288	11	333.4	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 19.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:35.325	—	15	331.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:38.308	+0.76%	9	Wet-Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:36.200	+0.875	14	326.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:39.061	+1.53%	8	Wet-Soft
3	Johann Zarco	01:36.314	+0.989	12	325.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
4	Jorge Martin	01:36.578	+1.253	20	328.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:39.021	+1.49%	13	Wet-Soft
5	Alex Marquez	01:36.604	+1.279	14	332.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:40.592	+3.10%	6	Wet-Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:36.864	+1.539	16	323.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:39.459	+1.94%	10	Wet-Soft
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:36.868	+1.543	17	333.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:37.568	—	5	Wet-Soft
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.054	+1.729	15	336.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:39.655	+2.14%	6	Wet-Soft
9	Pedro Acosta	01:37.136	+1.811	14	327.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:41.312	+3.84%	8	Wet-Soft
10	Brad Binder	01:37.174	+1.849	19	328.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:39.735	+2.22%	12	Wet-Soft
11	Augusto Fernandez	01:37.232	+1.907	17	322.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	1:40.541	+3.05%	13	Wet-Soft
12	Enea Bastianini	01:37.334	+2.009	17	328.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:39.428	+1.91%	12	Wet-Soft
13	Raul Fernandez	01:37.588	+2.263	12	318.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:40.257	+2.76%	6	Wet-Soft
14	Luca Marini	01:37.616	+2.291	13	321.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.738	+2.413	12	324.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
16	Jack Miller	01:37.965	+2.640	11	322.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
17	Alex Rins	01:38.037	+2.712	13	317.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:41.080	+3.60%	6	Wet-Soft
18	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.115	+2.790	11	317.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:39.631	+2.11%	5	Wet-Soft
19	Joan Mir	01:38.242	+2.917	12	323.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:41.604	+4.14%	5	Wet-Soft
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:38.382	+3.057	16	317.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:41.737	+4.27%	11	Wet-Soft
21	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.535	+4.210	11	325.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.014	+4.56%	6	Wet-Soft
22	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.842	+4.517	10	315.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:41.197	+3.72%	6	Wet-Soft

Q1 · 19.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Raul Fernandez	01:29.397	—	9	336.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Enea Bastianini	01:29.545	+0.148	7	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.958	+2.32%	5	Soft
3	Luca Marini	01:29.727	+0.330	10	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.665	+0.89%	7	Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:29.786	+0.389	8	336.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Pedro Acosta	01:29.817	+0.420	9	341.8	Soft / Soft	1:30.853	—	5	Soft
6	Jack Miller	01:29.909	+0.512	9	337.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.149	+0.752	8	333.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Joan Mir	01:30.448	+1.051	10	334.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.922	+3.38%	8	Soft
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.635	+1.238	9	333.4	Soft / Soft	1:33.468	+2.88%	5	Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.808	+2.411	9	338.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.835	+2.438	7	330.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Lorenzo Savadori	01:32.213	+2.816	9	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—

Q2 · 19.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:27.296	—	9	347.3	Hard / Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:27.890	+0.594	9	346.1	Medium / Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:27.991	+0.695	8	350.6	Medium / Soft
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:28.375	+1.079	9	344.0	Medium / Soft
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:28.478	+1.182	8	345.0	Hard / Soft
6	Raul Fernandez	01:28.498	+1.202	9	344.0	Soft / Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:28.622	+1.326	9	341.8	Medium / Soft
8	Alex Marquez	01:29.009	+1.713	8	344.0	Medium / Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:29.059	+1.763	7	336.5	Soft / Soft
10	Enea Bastianini	01:29.996	+2.700	8	347.3	Medium / Soft
11	Brad Binder	01:30.290	+2.994	7	340.7	Medium / Soft
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.336	+3.040	6	338.6	Soft / Soft

Sprint · 19.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	19:13.301	12	13	Hard / Soft	1:28.142	—	10	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	+1.520	9	13	Hard / Soft	1:28.188	+0.05%	11	Soft
3	Enea Bastianini	+4.368	7	13	Hard / Soft	1:28.424	+0.32%	11	Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	+6.879	6	13	Hard / Soft	1:28.574	+0.49%	11	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	+9.623	5	13	Hard / Soft	1:28.744	+0.68%	11	Soft
6	Raul Fernandez	+15.249	4	13	Hard / Soft	1:29.117	+1.11%	11	Soft
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+15.905	3	13	Hard / Soft	1:28.560	+0.47%	11	Soft
8	Aleix Espargaro	+19.280	2	13	Hard / Soft	1:29.094	+1.08%	11	Soft
9	Augusto Fernandez	+21.126	1	13	Hard / Soft	1:29.503	+1.54%	11	Soft
10	Luca Marini	+21.194	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:29.723	+1.79%	11	Soft
11	Fabio Quartararo	+21.379	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:29.594	+1.65%	11	Soft
12	Alex Rins	+21.483	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:29.761	+1.84%	11	Soft
13	Joan Mir	+23.528	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:29.765	+1.84%	11	Soft
14	Takaaki Nakagami	+34.055	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.491	+2.67%	11	Soft
15	Lorenzo Savadori	+38.324	0	13	Hard / Medium	1:30.379	+2.54%	11	Medium
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	5	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Brad Binder		0	11	Hard / Soft	1:28.837	+0.79%	9	Soft
Retired	Jack Miller		0	7	Hard / Soft	1:28.996	+0.97%	5	Soft
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	4	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Marco Bezzecchi		0	11	Hard / Medium	1:28.695	+0.63%	9	Medium
Retired	Maverick Viñales		0	11	Hard / Soft	1:28.691	+0.62%	9	Soft
Retired	Pedro Acosta		0	10	Hard / Soft	1:29.162	+1.16%	8	Soft

Warm Up · 20.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:27.812	—	7	348.4	Hard / Soft	1:29.214	+1.18%	5	Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:27.859	+0.047	7	352.9	Hard / Soft	1:28.174	—	5	Soft
3	Enea Bastianini	01:28.040	+0.228	7	350.6	Hard / Soft	1:29.351	+1.34%	5	Soft
4	Jorge Martin	01:28.082	+0.270	7	349.5	Hard / Soft	1:28.250	+0.09%	5	Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:28.088	+0.276	7	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:28.888	+0.81%	4	Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:28.115	+0.303	7	341.8	Hard / Soft	1:28.721	+0.62%	4	Soft
7	Brad Binder	01:28.119	+0.307	7	345.0	Hard / Soft	1:29.992	+2.06%	5	Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:28.149	+0.337	7	341.8	Hard / Soft	1:28.688	+0.58%	4	Soft
9	Maverick Viñales	01:28.325	+0.513	7	344.0	Hard / Soft	1:29.425	+1.42%	5	Soft
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:28.433	+0.621	7	342.9	Hard / Soft	1:29.388	+1.38%	5	Soft
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:28.651	+0.839	7	344.0	Hard / Soft	1:30.647	+2.81%	5	Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	01:28.654	+0.842	7	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:29.210	+1.18%	5	Soft
13	Luca Marini	01:28.655	+0.843	7	344.0	Medium / Soft	1:29.293	+1.27%	5	Soft
14	Johann Zarco	01:28.793	+0.981	7	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:29.518	+1.52%	5	Soft
15	Augusto Fernandez	01:28.837	+1.025	7	337.5	Medium / Soft	1:29.408	+1.40%	5	Soft
16	Alex Marquez	01:28.853	+1.041	7	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:31.113	+3.33%	5	Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:28.856	+1.044	7	337.5	Medium / Soft	1:29.337	+1.32%	5	Soft
18	Joan Mir	01:28.914	+1.102	7	341.8	Hard / Soft	1:29.950	+2.01%	4	Soft
19	Alex Rins	01:29.103	+1.291	7	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:30.302	+2.41%	5	Soft
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:30.285	+2.473	7	332.3	Hard / Soft	1:30.529	+2.67%	4	Soft
21	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.358	+2.546	7	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:30.941	+3.14%	4	Soft

Race · 20.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	39:47.702	25	27	Hard / Soft	1:28.122	—	25	Soft
2	Jorge Martin	+0.997	20	27	Hard / Soft	1:28.207	+0.10%	25	Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	+10.100	16	27	Hard / Soft	1:28.377	+0.29%	25	Soft
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+12.997	13	27	Hard / Soft	1:28.565	+0.50%	25	Soft
5	Enea Bastianini	+13.310	11	27	Hard / Soft	1:28.630	+0.58%	25	Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	+15.434	10	27	Hard / Soft	1:28.750	+0.71%	25	Soft
7	Brad Binder	+15.450	9	27	Hard / Soft	1:28.697	+0.65%	25	Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	+16.636	8	27	Hard / Soft	1:28.682	+0.64%	25	Soft
9	Fabio Quartararo	+18.757	7	27	Hard / Soft	1:28.858	+0.84%	25	Soft
10	Raul Fernandez	+19.345	6	27	Hard / Soft	1:28.850	+0.83%	25	Soft
11	Jack Miller	+19.932	5	27	Hard / Soft	1:28.819	+0.79%	25	Soft
12	Johann Zarco	+20.295	4	27	Hard / Soft	1:28.755	+0.72%	25	Soft
13	Alex Rins	+22.210	3	27	Hard / Soft	1:28.983	+0.98%	25	Soft
14	Luca Marini	+24.239	2	27	Hard / Soft	1:29.044	+1.05%	25	Soft
15	Alex Marquez	+24.591	1	27	Hard / Soft	1:28.906	+0.89%	25	Soft
16	Aleix Espargaro	+30.499	0	27	Hard / Soft	1:29.034	+1.04%	25	Soft
17	Augusto Fernandez	+30.533	0	27	Hard / Soft	1:29.253	+1.28%	25	Soft
18	Takaaki Nakagami	+30.765	0	27	Hard / Soft	1:28.999	+1.00%	25	Soft
19	Marco Bezzecchi	+45.393	0	27	Hard / Soft	1:28.642	+0.59%	24	Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		0	25	Hard / Soft	1:29.222	+1.25%	23	Soft
Retired	Lorenzo Savadori		0	17	Hard / Soft	1:30.686	+2.91%	15	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Takaaki Nakagami	1:29.667*	—	+0.359	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Fabio Quartararo	56%	9
2	Johann Zarco	42%	4
3	Pedro Acosta	29%	5
4	Augusto Fernandez	20%	7
5	Jack Miller	19%	6
6	Enea Bastianini	10%	2 ✓
7	Luca Marini	7%	3
8	Joan Mir	4%	8
9	Raul Fernandez	3%	1 ✓
10	Aleix Espargaro	3%	10
11	Lorenzo Savadori	4%	12
12	Takaaki Nakagami	2%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	36%	65%	87%	2
2	Alex Marquez	22%	52%	81%	8
3	Jorge Martin	14%	46%	76%	1
4	Maverick Viñales	5%	33%	68%	3
5	Marco Bezzecchi	4%	25%	52%	4
6	Francesco Bagnaia	6%	22%	55%	5
7	Brad Binder	2%	13%	40%	11
8	Franco Morbidelli	2%	15%	38%	7
9	Enea Bastianini	3%	9%	30%	10
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	2%	9%	26%	12
11	Raul Fernandez	2%	10%	30%	6
12	Alex Rins	1%	4%	20%	9

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Pedro Acosta	15	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Takaaki Nakagami	20	21	+1	FIM MotoGP Stewards long lap penalty for rider #73 & grid penalty for rider #30

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	32%	65%	82%	93%	4%	1
Marc Marquez	2	20%	52%	70%	85%	13%	2
Maverick Viñales	3	15%	48%	70%	90%	7%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	4	10%	33%	55%	78%	17%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	5	7%	27%	49%	82%	12%	4
Raul Fernandez	6	5%	23%	47%	87%	5%	6
Franco Morbidelli	7	4%	17%	38%	80%	7%	5
Alex Marquez	8	3%	11%	27%	71%	13%	—
Alex Rins	9	2%	6%	17%	62%	18%	12
Enea Bastianini	10	1%	5%	14%	60%	11%	3
Brad Binder	11	1%	3%	9%	51%	12%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	12	0%	3%	6%	42%	17%	7
Luca Marini	13	1%	2%	5%	34%	15%	10
Johann Zarco	14	0%	1%	4%	25%	17%	—
Jack Miller	15	0%	1%	3%	21%	4%	—
Augusto Fernandez	16	0%	1%	2%	13%	17%	9
Joan Mir	17	0%	1%	1%	8%	27%	13
Fabio Quartararo	18	0%	1%	1%	7%	9%	11
Aleix Espargaro	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	27%	8
Lorenzo Savadori	20	0%	0%	1%	3%	17%	15
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	12%	14
Pedro Acosta	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	8%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	39%	66%	74%	79%	21%	2
Marc Marquez	2	29%	64%	76%	83%	17%	1
Maverick Viñales	3	12%	43%	66%	85%	13%	8
Marco Bezzecchi	4	7%	32%	58%	83%	15%	19
Francesco Bagnaia	5	6%	31%	52%	72%	24%	3
Raul Fernandez	6	1%	6%	18%	66%	21%	10
Franco Morbidelli	7	1%	8%	23%	71%	16%	6
Alex Marquez	8	1%	9%	25%	66%	24%	15
Alex Rins	9	0%	1%	3%	35%	22%	13
Enea Bastianini	10	3%	21%	44%	78%	17%	5
Brad Binder	11	1%	6%	21%	71%	13%	7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	12	2%	12%	32%	74%	17%	4
Luca Marini	13	0%	0%	1%	18%	9%	14
Johann Zarco	14	0%	0%	1%	24%	18%	12
Jack Miller	15	0%	1%	5%	40%	25%	11
Augusto Fernandez	16	0%	0%	1%	18%	27%	17
Joan Mir	17	0%	0%	0%	5%	31%	—
Fabio Quartararo	18	0%	0%	0%	9%	13%	9
Aleix Espargaro	19	0%	0%	0%	13%	24%	16
Lorenzo Savadori	20	0%	0%	0%	1%	26%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	14%	18
Pedro Acosta	22	0%	0%	0%	9%	23%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Enea Bastianini	6% → 21%	+15	1% → 3%
Marc Marquez	51% → 64%	+13	22% → 29%
Jorge Martin	53% → 66%	+13	26% → 39%
Dropping
Raul Fernandez	23% → 6%	−17	6% → 1%
Franco Morbidelli	19% → 8%	−11	4% → 1%
Alex Rins	8% → 1%	−7	2% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:28.142	—	+0.457	Soft	10
Marc Marquez	1:28.188	+0.046	+0.210	Soft	11
Enea Bastianini	1:28.424	+0.282	+0.319	Soft	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:28.560	+0.418	+0.320	Soft	11
Francesco Bagnaia	1:28.574	+0.432	+0.221	Soft	11
Maverick Viñales	1:28.691	+0.549	+0.292	Soft	9
Marco Bezzecchi	1:28.695	+0.553	+0.553	Medium	9
Franco Morbidelli	1:28.744	+0.602	+0.512	Soft	11
Brad Binder	1:28.837	+0.695	+0.327	Soft	9
Jack Miller	1:28.996	+0.854	+0.105	Soft	5
Aleix Espargaro	1:29.094	+0.952	+0.209	Soft	11
Raul Fernandez	1:29.117	+0.975	+0.667	Soft	11
Pedro Acosta	1:29.162	+1.020	+0.448	Soft	8
Augusto Fernandez	1:29.503	+1.361	+0.437	Soft	11
Fabio Quartararo	1:29.594	+1.452	+0.275	Soft	11
Luca Marini	1:29.723	+1.581	+0.308	Soft	11
Alex Rins	1:29.761	+1.619	+0.217	Soft	11
Joan Mir	1:29.765	+1.623	+0.562	Soft	11
Lorenzo Savadori	1:30.379	+2.237	+0.781	Medium	11
Takaaki Nakagami	1:30.491	+2.349	+0.359	Soft	11

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,454 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Pedro Acosta +0.35%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.53%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.40%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%	Raul Fernandez +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Raul Fernandez +0.43%	Alex Marquez +0.55%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi	Brad Binder +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.14%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%
S3	Jorge Martin	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.26%
S2	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.75%	Marc Marquez +0.83%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.51%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Brad Binder +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.11%	Enea Bastianini +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Remy Gardner +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Jack Miller +0.65%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Cal Crutchlow +0.67%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%	Andrea Iannone +0.59%
S2	Jack Miller +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.87%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.59%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

5/100

Position index

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Martin	392	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	382	−10
3	Enea Bastianini	313	−79
4	Marc Marquez	311	−81
5	Brad Binder	183	−209
6	Pedro Acosta	181	−211

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

1/27

Laps led by the winner

Johann Zarco

0.201 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Luca Marini, from P18 to P12.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Johann Zarco (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Johann Zarco	1:30.009	—	+0.344	Medium	25
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:30.029	+0.020	+0.320	Medium	25
Augusto Fernandez	1:30.188	+0.179	+0.437	Medium	10
Brad Binder	1:30.197	+0.188	+0.327	Medium	25
Jorge Martin	1:30.211	+0.202	+0.457	Soft	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.217	+0.208	+0.221	Medium	25
Joan Mir	1:30.239	+0.230	+0.562	Medium	8
Alex Marquez	1:30.239	+0.230	+0.356	Medium	25
Jack Miller	1:30.337	+0.328	+0.105	Medium	25
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.399	+0.390	+0.553	Medium	25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Raul FernandezAprilia
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Johann ZarcoDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	2/21	10%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/21	24%
2018	5/23	22%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	81%	+0.43%	+0.073	1	3	9.1
Soft	19%	+0.83%	+0.154	0	0	13.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.