MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 15 of 20 Aftermath

Indonesian Grand Prix 2024

Pertamina Mandalika Circuit Indonesia

4.313 m · 27 laps · since 2022
27.09 – 29.09.2024
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing41:04.38925
2Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3+1.40420
3Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+5.59516
4Franco MorbidelliDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+6.50713
5Marco BezzecchiDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+6.77211
6Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing+11.33010
7Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+13.2039
8Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+14.8628
9Johann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCR+15.1517
10Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse Racing+21.0796
11Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+33.6335
12Takaaki NakagamiHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCR+43.6964
DNFAleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia RacingOut on lap 10
DNFAlex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGPOut on lap 10
DNFAugusto FernandezKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3Retired0
DNFEnea BastianiniDucatiDucati Lenovo TeamRetired0
DNFFabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing TeamRetired0
DNFJack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory RacingOut on lap 10
DNFJoan MirHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFLuca MariniHondaRepsol Honda TeamOut on lap 10
DNFMarc MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGPRetired0

Sprint result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team19:41.35412
2Enea BastianiniDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+0.1079
3Marc MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+1.7017
4Marco BezzecchiDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+3.0726
5Franco MorbidelliDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+5.9675
6Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3+6.2104
7Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing+6.6643
8Johann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCR+6.9382
9Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+7.7061
10Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+9.1040
11Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+9.6180
12Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+9.8430
13Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+11.1180
14Alex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+12.4180
15Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+12.5790
16Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing+12.9520
17Takaaki NakagamiHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCR+13.3510
18Luca MariniHondaRepsol Honda Team+15.4960
19Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse Racing+29.8950
DNFAugusto FernandezKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3Retired0
DNFJoan MirHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
SprintJorge Martin · 33%Francesco Bagnaia · 10% · from P40.66 / 0.663.5 / 3.6
Race (after the grid)Jorge Martin · 25% ✓Jorge Martin · 25% · from P10.80 / 0.802.2 / 2.2
Race (after the sprint)Marco Bezzecchi · 23%Jorge Martin · 17% · from P10.73 / 0.802.1 / 2.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Jorge Martin1:31.006—+0.457Medium24
Enea Bastianini1:31.043+0.037+0.319Medium17
Pedro Acosta1:31.061+0.055+0.448Medium24
Francesco Bagnaia1:31.141+0.135+0.221Medium25
Franco Morbidelli1:31.238+0.232+0.512Medium24
Marco Bezzecchi1:31.244+0.238+0.553Medium24
Maverick Viñales1:31.282+0.276+0.292Medium21
Fabio Quartararo1:31.331+0.325+0.275Medium23
Brad Binder1:31.493+0.487+0.327Medium22
Johann Zarco1:31.520+0.514+0.344Medium24
Raul Fernandez1:31.629+0.623+0.667Medium25
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:31.702+0.696+0.320Soft6
Marc Marquez1:31.728+0.722+0.210Medium9
Takaaki Nakagami1:31.893+0.887+0.359Medium25
Augusto Fernandez1:31.974+0.968+0.437Medium14
Joan Mir1:32.192+1.186+0.562Medium9
Alex Rins1:32.224+1.218+0.217Medium25

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

25
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
27/27
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Martin
1.404 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P19 to P8.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Raul Fernandez (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

39
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
13/13
Laps led by the winner
Francesco Bagnaia
0.107 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P12 to P3.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Marc Marquez (9 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Sprint15:03:47Jorge MartinCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:04:53Raul FernandezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:05:26Joan MirCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:19:44Augusto FernandezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
SprintSanctionFIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, 8 seconds penalty for rider #25 due to technical infringement
Race15:02:27Alex MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:02:28Aleix EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:02:30Luca MariniCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:02:31Jack MillerCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:15:14Fabio Di GiannantonioCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:20:02Marc MarquezTechnical problemStopped with technical issue
Race15:21:09Joan MirCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:31:41Augusto FernandezTechnical problemStopped with technical issue
Race15:32:42Enea BastianiniCrashCrashed out - Rider OK

Race: 3 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 5 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Medium94%+0.45%−0.022136.5
Soft6%+0.77%−0.10200—

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
29.7 °C
Air
max 30.3 °C
68%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
25 km/h
Wind
gusts 57 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 27.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Franco Morbidelli01:30.689—20311.2— / ———
2Maverick Viñales01:30.910+0.22121313.0Hard / Medium——
3Jorge Martin01:31.218+0.52920313.0Hard / Medium1:32.420—4Medium
4Pedro Acosta01:31.271+0.58218314.8— / ———
5Johann Zarco01:31.456+0.76715311.2— / ———
6Marc Marquez01:31.504+0.81520310.3Hard / Medium1:32.648+0.25%6Medium
7Marco Bezzecchi01:31.518+0.82922312.1Soft / Medium1:32.582+0.18%10Medium
8Enea Bastianini01:31.629+0.94019313.0— / ———
9Luca Marini01:31.703+1.01419311.2Hard / Medium——
10Fabio Di Giannantonio01:31.726+1.03718307.6Soft / Medium1:32.930+0.55%5Medium
11Takaaki Nakagami01:31.767+1.07821308.5Hard / Medium1:34.373+2.11%5Medium
12Alex Marquez01:31.776+1.08720308.5— / ———
13Brad Binder01:31.784+1.09522316.7Medium / Medium1:32.942+0.57%8Medium
14Francesco Bagnaia01:31.794+1.10519315.7Soft / Medium1:35.680+3.53%6Medium
15Fabio Quartararo01:31.857+1.16818310.3Hard / Medium1:33.158+0.80%6Medium
16Alex Rins01:32.006+1.31722311.2— / ———
17Jack Miller01:32.026+1.33721313.9Hard / Medium1:33.303+0.96%6Medium
18Joan Mir01:32.027+1.33819311.2Hard / Medium1:34.504+2.26%6Medium
19Aleix Espargaro01:32.194+1.50520310.3Medium / Medium——
20Raul Fernandez01:32.254+1.56520310.3— / ———
21Augusto Fernandez01:32.473+1.78420313.0Hard / Medium1:33.860+1.56%6Medium
22Miguel Oliveira01:32.642+1.95313309.4Medium / Medium1:34.053+1.77%7Medium
Practice · 27.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Enea Bastianini01:29.630—25315.7Hard / Soft1:31.720+0.73%6Medium
2Jorge Martin01:29.670+0.04025316.7Hard / Soft1:31.362+0.34%11Medium
3Franco Morbidelli01:29.709+0.07921314.8Soft / Soft1:32.045+1.09%5Soft
4Francesco Bagnaia01:29.712+0.08223314.8Soft / Soft——
5Marco Bezzecchi01:29.770+0.14028312.1Soft / Soft1:31.243+0.21%15Medium
6Fabio Quartararo01:29.844+0.21429312.1Soft / Soft1:31.977+1.01%4Medium
7Marc Marquez01:29.885+0.25527314.8Soft / Soft1:32.682+1.79%10Soft
8Pedro Acosta01:29.961+0.33120316.7Soft / Soft1:31.055—6Soft
9Fabio Di Giannantonio01:29.986+0.35624308.5Soft / Soft——
10Maverick Viñales01:30.000+0.37026313.9Soft / Soft1:33.481+2.66%5Medium
11Johann Zarco01:30.086+0.45626312.1Soft / Soft1:32.507+1.60%5Medium
12Luca Marini01:30.096+0.46626312.1Soft / Soft——
13Alex Rins01:30.189+0.55927312.1Soft / Soft1:32.465+1.55%5Soft
14Brad Binder01:30.203+0.57326316.7Hard / Soft1:32.774+1.89%14Soft
15Aleix Espargaro01:30.305+0.67525313.0Soft / Soft1:33.091+2.24%8Medium
16Jack Miller01:30.411+0.78127313.9Soft / Soft1:31.695+0.70%9Soft
17Takaaki Nakagami01:30.443+0.81326310.3Soft / Soft——
18Raul Fernandez01:30.607+0.97726313.0Soft / Soft1:32.743+1.85%5Medium
19Joan Mir01:30.792+1.16225314.8Soft / Soft——
20Augusto Fernandez01:30.895+1.26525312.1Soft / Soft1:32.330+1.40%12Soft
21Alex Marquez01:30.998+1.36821308.5Soft / Soft1:32.252+1.32%7Medium
FP2 · 28.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Franco Morbidelli01:30.330—14313.9Soft / Soft——
2Aleix Espargaro01:30.497+0.16713313.0Soft / Soft1:31.365+0.83%5Soft
3Marc Marquez01:30.510+0.18014313.0Hard / Soft1:30.615—5Soft
4Francesco Bagnaia01:30.548+0.21814315.7Hard / Soft——
5Jorge Martin01:30.550+0.22014315.7Hard / Soft——
6Fabio Di Giannantonio01:30.567+0.23710309.4Soft / Soft1:30.740+0.14%4Soft
7Enea Bastianini01:30.582+0.25213316.7Hard / Soft——
8Maverick Viñales01:30.673+0.34314311.2Hard / Soft——
9Fabio Quartararo01:30.675+0.34515313.0Soft / Soft1:31.191+0.64%10Soft
10Pedro Acosta01:30.720+0.39014316.7Hard / Medium——
11Johann Zarco01:30.735+0.40514310.3Hard / Soft1:31.264+0.72%6Soft
12Alex Rins01:30.803+0.47315309.4Soft / Soft1:31.802+1.31%6Soft
13Joan Mir01:30.825+0.49514312.1Soft / Soft1:31.803+1.31%10Soft
14Augusto Fernandez01:30.996+0.66615312.1Hard / Soft1:32.749+2.36%8Medium
15Brad Binder01:31.008+0.67815317.6Hard / Soft1:31.836+1.35%10Soft
16Takaaki Nakagami01:31.010+0.68015310.3Soft / Medium1:31.576+1.06%4Medium
17Luca Marini01:31.077+0.74713310.3Soft / Soft——
18Alex Marquez01:31.109+0.77914311.2Soft / Soft1:31.691+1.19%5Soft
19Marco Bezzecchi01:31.117+0.78715313.9Soft / Soft1:31.636+1.13%5Soft
20Jack Miller01:31.147+0.81716312.1Soft / Soft1:31.600+1.09%8Soft
21Raul Fernandez01:31.194+0.86412310.3Hard / Soft——
Q1 · 28.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Johann Zarco01:29.995—6313.0Hard / Soft
2Raul Fernandez01:30.062+0.0679314.8Soft / Soft
3Aleix Espargaro01:30.110+0.1155314.8Soft / Soft
4Alex Marquez01:30.243+0.2487312.1Hard / Soft
5Alex Rins01:30.293+0.2988312.1Soft / Soft
6Jack Miller01:30.385+0.3908313.0Soft / Soft
7Luca Marini01:30.395+0.4009313.0Soft / Soft
8Takaaki Nakagami01:30.430+0.4359310.3Soft / Soft
9Brad Binder01:30.582+0.5877317.6Hard / Soft
10Joan Mir01:30.698+0.7038313.9Soft / Soft
11Augusto Fernandez01:31.086+1.0918313.9Soft / Soft
Q2 · 28.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Jorge Martin01:29.088—9318.5Hard / Soft
2Marco Bezzecchi01:29.623+0.5359314.8Soft / Soft
3Pedro Acosta01:29.671+0.5839319.5Hard / Soft
4Francesco Bagnaia01:29.745+0.6579319.5Hard / Soft
5Enea Bastianini01:29.792+0.7048318.5Hard / Soft
6Fabio Quartararo01:29.848+0.7609311.2Soft / Soft
7Johann Zarco01:29.942+0.8549312.1Hard / Soft
8Fabio Di Giannantonio01:29.963+0.8759309.4Soft / Soft
9Franco Morbidelli01:30.107+1.0198316.7Soft / Soft
10Maverick Viñales01:30.418+1.3308313.9Hard / Soft
11Raul Fernandez01:30.524+1.4368313.9Hard / Soft
RetiredMarc Marquez—00.0Hard / Soft
Sprint · 28.09
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Francesco Bagnaia19:41.3541213Hard / Soft1:30.519—11Soft
2Enea Bastianini+0.107913Hard / Soft1:30.571+0.06%11Soft
3Marc Marquez+1.701713Hard / Soft1:30.556+0.04%11Soft
4Marco Bezzecchi+3.072613Soft / Soft1:30.615+0.11%11Soft
5Franco Morbidelli+5.967513Soft / Soft1:30.936+0.46%11Soft
6Pedro Acosta+6.210413Hard / Soft1:30.758+0.26%10Soft
7Maverick Viñales+6.664313Hard / Soft1:31.056+0.59%11Soft
8Johann Zarco+6.938213Hard / Soft1:31.006+0.54%11Soft
9Fabio Di Giannantonio+7.706113Soft / Soft1:30.967+0.50%11Soft
10Jorge Martin+9.104013Hard / Soft1:30.763+0.27%11Soft
11Jack Miller+9.618013Hard / Soft1:31.206+0.76%11Soft
12Fabio Quartararo+9.843013Soft / Soft1:31.212+0.77%11Soft
13Brad Binder+11.118013Hard / Soft1:31.130+0.68%10Soft
14Alex Marquez+12.418013Hard / Soft1:31.255+0.81%11Soft
15Alex Rins+12.579013Soft / Soft1:31.347+0.92%9Soft
16Aleix Espargaro+12.952013Hard / Soft1:31.258+0.82%11Soft
17Takaaki Nakagami+13.351013Hard / Soft1:31.326+0.89%10Soft
18Luca Marini+15.496013Soft / Soft1:31.356+0.93%11Soft
19Raul Fernandez+29.895013Hard / Soft1:30.924+0.45%10Soft
RetiredAugusto Fernandez011Hard / Soft1:31.804+1.42%8Soft
RetiredJoan Mir01Hard / Soft——
Warm Up · 29.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Jorge Martin01:30.511—7313.9Hard / Medium1:31.489+0.32%5Medium
2Marc Marquez01:30.561+0.0507312.1Soft / Medium1:31.674+0.52%4Medium
3Franco Morbidelli01:30.614+0.1037314.8Soft / Medium——
4Pedro Acosta01:30.673+0.1627314.8Hard / Medium1:31.198—5Medium
5Raul Fernandez01:30.711+0.2006309.4Hard / Medium——
6Fabio Di Giannantonio01:30.734+0.2237309.4Soft / Medium1:31.658+0.50%5Medium
7Fabio Quartararo01:30.791+0.2807310.3Hard / Medium——
8Enea Bastianini01:30.916+0.4057318.5Hard / Medium——
9Takaaki Nakagami01:30.953+0.4426308.5Soft / Medium——
10Marco Bezzecchi01:30.987+0.4767312.1Soft / Medium——
11Luca Marini01:31.001+0.4907309.4Hard / Medium1:32.478+1.40%5Medium
12Maverick Viñales01:31.011+0.5007309.4Hard / Medium——
13Johann Zarco01:31.084+0.5737309.4Hard / Medium1:32.516+1.45%5Medium
14Francesco Bagnaia01:31.159+0.6487315.7Hard / Medium——
15Jack Miller01:31.272+0.7617313.0Hard / Medium1:31.833+0.70%5Medium
16Brad Binder01:31.360+0.8497315.7Hard / Medium——
17Aleix Espargaro01:31.364+0.8537310.3Soft / Medium——
18Joan Mir01:31.430+0.9197312.1Hard / Medium1:34.337+3.44%5Medium
19Augusto Fernandez01:31.517+1.0067311.2Hard / Medium——
20Alex Marquez01:31.620+1.1096310.3Soft / Medium——
21Alex Rins01:31.961+1.4507308.5Hard / Medium1:32.177+1.07%5Medium
Race · 29.09
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Jorge Martin41:04.3892527Hard / Medium1:31.006—24Medium
2Pedro Acosta+1.4042027Hard / Medium1:31.061+0.06%24Medium
3Francesco Bagnaia+5.5951627Hard / Medium1:31.141+0.15%25Medium
4Franco Morbidelli+6.5071327Soft / Medium1:31.238+0.26%24Medium
5Marco Bezzecchi+6.7721127Soft / Medium1:31.244+0.26%24Medium
6Maverick Viñales+11.3301027Hard / Medium1:31.282+0.30%21Medium
7Fabio Quartararo+13.203927Hard / Medium1:31.331+0.36%23Medium
8Brad Binder+14.862827Hard / Medium1:31.493+0.54%22Medium
9Johann Zarco+15.151727Hard / Medium1:31.520+0.57%24Medium
10Raul Fernandez+21.079627Hard / Medium1:31.629+0.69%25Medium
11Alex Rins+33.633527Soft / Medium1:32.224+1.34%25Medium
12Takaaki Nakagami+43.696427Hard / Medium1:31.893+0.98%25Medium
Out on lap 1Aleix Espargaro00— / ———
Out on lap 1Alex Marquez00— / ———
RetiredAugusto Fernandez019Hard / Medium1:31.974+1.06%14Medium
RetiredEnea Bastianini020Hard / Medium1:31.043+0.04%17Medium
RetiredFabio Di Giannantonio08Soft / Soft1:31.702+0.77%6Soft
Out on lap 1Jack Miller00— / ———
RetiredJoan Mir012Hard / Medium1:32.192+1.30%9Medium
Out on lap 1Luca Marini00— / ———
RetiredMarc Marquez011Hard / Medium1:31.728+0.79%9Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Jorge Martin133%67%82%94%5%10
Marco Bezzecchi219%50%67%80%17%4
Pedro Acosta315%51%73%93%4%6
Francesco Bagnaia410%37%59%84%12%1
Enea Bastianini57%26%51%82%12%2
Fabio Quartararo65%22%45%83%10%12
Johann Zarco73%14%33%71%17%8
Fabio Di Giannantonio82%10%26%68%18%9
Franco Morbidelli92%7%19%70%7%5
Maverick Viñales101%5%13%63%7%7
Raul Fernandez111%4%10%54%5%19
Marc Marquez121%2%7%43%13%3
Aleix Espargaro130%2%4%28%26%16
Alex Marquez140%1%3%26%13%14
Alex Rins150%1%2%19%19%15
Jack Miller160%1%2%16%5%11
Luca Marini170%1%1%10%15%18
Takaaki Nakagami180%1%1%7%10%17
Brad Binder190%0%1%5%10%13
Joan Mir200%0%0%3%23%—
Augusto Fernandez210%0%0%2%15%—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Jorge Martin117%45%63%76%22%1
Marco Bezzecchi223%55%73%83%15%5
Pedro Acosta313%42%63%78%21%2
Francesco Bagnaia420%50%64%74%25%3
Enea Bastianini521%53%71%81%16%—
Fabio Quartararo60%4%16%67%13%7
Johann Zarco72%11%30%72%18%9
Fabio Di Giannantonio81%6%20%68%16%—
Franco Morbidelli91%11%30%75%17%4
Maverick Viñales100%4%16%66%13%6
Raul Fernandez111%5%17%63%21%10
Marc Marquez122%13%34%76%17%—
Aleix Espargaro130%0%1%21%23%—
Alex Marquez140%0%1%21%23%—
Alex Rins150%0%0%11%22%11
Jack Miller160%0%1%18%24%—
Luca Marini170%0%0%10%8%—
Takaaki Nakagami180%0%1%23%14%12
Brad Binder190%0%0%15%13%8
Joan Mir200%0%0%1%29%—
Augusto Fernandez210%0%0%2%23%—

What the sprint changed

C13b
RiderPodiumΔWin
Rising
Enea Bastianini31% → 53%+229% → 21%
Francesco Bagnaia33% → 50%+1710% → 20%
Marc Marquez4% → 13%+101% → 2%
Dropping
Fabio Quartararo26% → 4%−227% → 0%
Fabio Di Giannantonio15% → 6%−94% → 1%
Johann Zarco18% → 11%−74% → 2%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Francesco Bagnaia1:30.519—+0.221Soft11
Marc Marquez1:30.556+0.037+0.210Soft11
Enea Bastianini1:30.571+0.052+0.319Soft11
Marco Bezzecchi1:30.615+0.096+0.553Soft11
Pedro Acosta1:30.758+0.239+0.448Soft10
Jorge Martin1:30.763+0.244+0.457Soft11
Raul Fernandez1:30.924+0.405+0.667Soft10
Franco Morbidelli1:30.936+0.417+0.512Soft11
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:30.967+0.448+0.320Soft11
Johann Zarco1:31.006+0.487+0.344Soft11
Maverick Viñales1:31.056+0.537+0.292Soft11
Brad Binder1:31.130+0.611+0.327Soft10
Jack Miller1:31.206+0.687+0.105Soft11
Fabio Quartararo1:31.212+0.693+0.275Soft11
Alex Marquez1:31.255+0.736+0.356Soft11
Aleix Espargaro1:31.258+0.739+0.209Soft11
Takaaki Nakagami1:31.326+0.807+0.359Soft10
Alex Rins1:31.347+0.828+0.217Soft9
Luca Marini1:31.356+0.837+0.308Soft11
Augusto Fernandez1:31.804+1.285+0.437Soft8

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · BastianiniS2 · BezzecchiS3 · MartinS4 · M. Marquez

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,313 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

38/100
Position index
25%
Pole wins
50%
Front row on the podium
0.65
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 4 races (2022–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

61
Overtakes
2
Lead changes
3 leaders
8/27
Laps led by the winner
Francesco Bagnaia
0.306 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P21 to P9.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Francesco Bagnaia (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1

2023 edition

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Jorge Martin1:31.359—+0.457Medium10
Fabio Quartararo1:31.500+0.141+0.275Medium25
Francesco Bagnaia1:31.541+0.182+0.221Medium25
Maverick Viñales1:31.601+0.242+0.292Medium24
Enea Bastianini1:31.629+0.270+0.319Medium25
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:31.680+0.321+0.320Medium24
Brad Binder1:31.827+0.468+0.327Medium25
Marco Bezzecchi1:31.852+0.493+0.553Medium25
Joan Mir1:31.957+0.598+0.562Medium9
Jack Miller1:31.971+0.612+0.105Medium25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

  • 2025Fermin AldeguerDucati
  • 2024Jorge MartinDucati
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Miguel OliveiraKTM

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20255/1926%
20249/2143%
20237/2133%
20222/239%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Medium76%+0.60%−0.032135.9
Soft24%+1.31%+0.0820011.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.