Round 15 of 20 Aftermath

Indonesian Grand Prix 2024

4.313 m · 27 laps · since 2022

27.09 – 29.09.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	41:04.389	25
2	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+1.404	20
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+5.595	16
4	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+6.507	13
5	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+6.772	11
6	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+11.330	10
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+13.203	9
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+14.862	8
9	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+15.151	7
10	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+21.079	6
11	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+33.633	5
12	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+43.696	4
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	19:41.354	12
2	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+0.107	9
3	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.701	7
4	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+3.072	6
5	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+5.967	5
6	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+6.210	4
7	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+6.664	3
8	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+6.938	2
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+7.706	1
10	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+9.104	0
11	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+9.618	0
12	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+9.843	0
13	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.118	0
14	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+12.418	0
15	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+12.579	0
16	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+12.952	0
17	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+13.351	0
18	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+15.496	0
19	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+29.895	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Jorge Martin · 33%	Francesco Bagnaia · 10% · from P4	0.66 / 0.66	3.5 / 3.6
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 25% ✓	Jorge Martin · 25% · from P1	0.80 / 0.80	2.2 / 2.2
Race (after the sprint)	Marco Bezzecchi · 23%	Jorge Martin · 17% · from P1	0.73 / 0.80	2.1 / 2.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:31.006	—	+0.457	Medium	24
Enea Bastianini	1:31.043	+0.037	+0.319	Medium	17
Pedro Acosta	1:31.061	+0.055	+0.448	Medium	24
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.141	+0.135	+0.221	Medium	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.238	+0.232	+0.512	Medium	24
Marco Bezzecchi	1:31.244	+0.238	+0.553	Medium	24
Maverick Viñales	1:31.282	+0.276	+0.292	Medium	21
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.331	+0.325	+0.275	Medium	23
Brad Binder	1:31.493	+0.487	+0.327	Medium	22
Johann Zarco	1:31.520	+0.514	+0.344	Medium	24
Raul Fernandez	1:31.629	+0.623	+0.667	Medium	25
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:31.702	+0.696	+0.320	Soft	6
Marc Marquez	1:31.728	+0.722	+0.210	Medium	9
Takaaki Nakagami	1:31.893	+0.887	+0.359	Medium	25
Augusto Fernandez	1:31.974	+0.968	+0.437	Medium	14
Joan Mir	1:32.192	+1.186	+0.562	Medium	9
Alex Rins	1:32.224	+1.218	+0.217	Medium	25

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

1.404 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P19 to P8.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Raul Fernandez (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

13/13

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.107 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P12 to P3.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Marc Marquez (9 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:03:47	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:04:53	Raul Fernandez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:05:26	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:19:44	Augusto Fernandez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, 8 seconds penalty for rider #25 due to technical infringement
Race	15:02:27	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:02:28	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:02:30	Luca Marini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:02:31	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:15:14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:20:02	Marc Marquez	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue
Race	15:21:09	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:31:41	Augusto Fernandez	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue
Race	15:32:42	Enea Bastianini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Race: 3 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 5 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Martin (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Augusto Fernandez	21	14	+7
Brad Binder	19	12	+7
Marc Marquez	12	7	+5
Johann Zarco	7	11	−4
Fabio Quartararo	6	9	−3
Marco Bezzecchi	2	4	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Brad Binder	19→8	+6.4
Franco Morbidelli	9→4	+4.0
Maverick Viñales	10→6	+2.6
Fabio Quartararo	6→7	−1.0
Marco Bezzecchi	2→5	−1.5
Johann Zarco	7→9	−2.3

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	94%	+0.45%	−0.022	1	3	6.5
Soft	6%	+0.77%	−0.102	0	0	—

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

29.7 °C

Air

max 30.3 °C

68%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

25 km/h

Wind

gusts 57 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 27.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.689	—	20	311.2	— / —	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:30.910	+0.221	21	313.0	Hard / Medium	—			—
3	Jorge Martin	01:31.218	+0.529	20	313.0	Hard / Medium	1:32.420	—	4	Medium
4	Pedro Acosta	01:31.271	+0.582	18	314.8	— / —	—			—
5	Johann Zarco	01:31.456	+0.767	15	311.2	— / —	—			—
6	Marc Marquez	01:31.504	+0.815	20	310.3	Hard / Medium	1:32.648	+0.25%	6	Medium
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.518	+0.829	22	312.1	Soft / Medium	1:32.582	+0.18%	10	Medium
8	Enea Bastianini	01:31.629	+0.940	19	313.0	— / —	—			—
9	Luca Marini	01:31.703	+1.014	19	311.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.726	+1.037	18	307.6	Soft / Medium	1:32.930	+0.55%	5	Medium
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.767	+1.078	21	308.5	Hard / Medium	1:34.373	+2.11%	5	Medium
12	Alex Marquez	01:31.776	+1.087	20	308.5	— / —	—			—
13	Brad Binder	01:31.784	+1.095	22	316.7	Medium / Medium	1:32.942	+0.57%	8	Medium
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.794	+1.105	19	315.7	Soft / Medium	1:35.680	+3.53%	6	Medium
15	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.857	+1.168	18	310.3	Hard / Medium	1:33.158	+0.80%	6	Medium
16	Alex Rins	01:32.006	+1.317	22	311.2	— / —	—			—
17	Jack Miller	01:32.026	+1.337	21	313.9	Hard / Medium	1:33.303	+0.96%	6	Medium
18	Joan Mir	01:32.027	+1.338	19	311.2	Hard / Medium	1:34.504	+2.26%	6	Medium
19	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.194	+1.505	20	310.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Raul Fernandez	01:32.254	+1.565	20	310.3	— / —	—			—
21	Augusto Fernandez	01:32.473	+1.784	20	313.0	Hard / Medium	1:33.860	+1.56%	6	Medium
22	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.642	+1.953	13	309.4	Medium / Medium	1:34.053	+1.77%	7	Medium

Practice · 27.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Enea Bastianini	01:29.630	—	25	315.7	Hard / Soft	1:31.720	+0.73%	6	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:29.670	+0.040	25	316.7	Hard / Soft	1:31.362	+0.34%	11	Medium
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.709	+0.079	21	314.8	Soft / Soft	1:32.045	+1.09%	5	Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.712	+0.082	23	314.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.770	+0.140	28	312.1	Soft / Soft	1:31.243	+0.21%	15	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.844	+0.214	29	312.1	Soft / Soft	1:31.977	+1.01%	4	Medium
7	Marc Marquez	01:29.885	+0.255	27	314.8	Soft / Soft	1:32.682	+1.79%	10	Soft
8	Pedro Acosta	01:29.961	+0.331	20	316.7	Soft / Soft	1:31.055	—	6	Soft
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.986	+0.356	24	308.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Maverick Viñales	01:30.000	+0.370	26	313.9	Soft / Soft	1:33.481	+2.66%	5	Medium
11	Johann Zarco	01:30.086	+0.456	26	312.1	Soft / Soft	1:32.507	+1.60%	5	Medium
12	Luca Marini	01:30.096	+0.466	26	312.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Alex Rins	01:30.189	+0.559	27	312.1	Soft / Soft	1:32.465	+1.55%	5	Soft
14	Brad Binder	01:30.203	+0.573	26	316.7	Hard / Soft	1:32.774	+1.89%	14	Soft
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.305	+0.675	25	313.0	Soft / Soft	1:33.091	+2.24%	8	Medium
16	Jack Miller	01:30.411	+0.781	27	313.9	Soft / Soft	1:31.695	+0.70%	9	Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.443	+0.813	26	310.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Raul Fernandez	01:30.607	+0.977	26	313.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.743	+1.85%	5	Medium
19	Joan Mir	01:30.792	+1.162	25	314.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.895	+1.265	25	312.1	Soft / Soft	1:32.330	+1.40%	12	Soft
21	Alex Marquez	01:30.998	+1.368	21	308.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.252	+1.32%	7	Medium

FP2 · 28.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.330	—	14	313.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.497	+0.167	13	313.0	Soft / Soft	1:31.365	+0.83%	5	Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:30.510	+0.180	14	313.0	Hard / Soft	1:30.615	—	5	Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.548	+0.218	14	315.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
5	Jorge Martin	01:30.550	+0.220	14	315.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.567	+0.237	10	309.4	Soft / Soft	1:30.740	+0.14%	4	Soft
7	Enea Bastianini	01:30.582	+0.252	13	316.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
8	Maverick Viñales	01:30.673	+0.343	14	311.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.675	+0.345	15	313.0	Soft / Soft	1:31.191	+0.64%	10	Soft
10	Pedro Acosta	01:30.720	+0.390	14	316.7	Hard / Medium	—			—
11	Johann Zarco	01:30.735	+0.405	14	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.264	+0.72%	6	Soft
12	Alex Rins	01:30.803	+0.473	15	309.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.802	+1.31%	6	Soft
13	Joan Mir	01:30.825	+0.495	14	312.1	Soft / Soft	1:31.803	+1.31%	10	Soft
14	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.996	+0.666	15	312.1	Hard / Soft	1:32.749	+2.36%	8	Medium
15	Brad Binder	01:31.008	+0.678	15	317.6	Hard / Soft	1:31.836	+1.35%	10	Soft
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.010	+0.680	15	310.3	Soft / Medium	1:31.576	+1.06%	4	Medium
17	Luca Marini	01:31.077	+0.747	13	310.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Alex Marquez	01:31.109	+0.779	14	311.2	Soft / Soft	1:31.691	+1.19%	5	Soft
19	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.117	+0.787	15	313.9	Soft / Soft	1:31.636	+1.13%	5	Soft
20	Jack Miller	01:31.147	+0.817	16	312.1	Soft / Soft	1:31.600	+1.09%	8	Soft
21	Raul Fernandez	01:31.194	+0.864	12	310.3	Hard / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 28.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Johann Zarco	01:29.995	—	6	313.0	Hard / Soft
2	Raul Fernandez	01:30.062	+0.067	9	314.8	Soft / Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.110	+0.115	5	314.8	Soft / Soft
4	Alex Marquez	01:30.243	+0.248	7	312.1	Hard / Soft
5	Alex Rins	01:30.293	+0.298	8	312.1	Soft / Soft
6	Jack Miller	01:30.385	+0.390	8	313.0	Soft / Soft
7	Luca Marini	01:30.395	+0.400	9	313.0	Soft / Soft
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.430	+0.435	9	310.3	Soft / Soft
9	Brad Binder	01:30.582	+0.587	7	317.6	Hard / Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:30.698	+0.703	8	313.9	Soft / Soft
11	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.086	+1.091	8	313.9	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 28.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:29.088	—	9	318.5	Hard / Soft
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.623	+0.535	9	314.8	Soft / Soft
3	Pedro Acosta	01:29.671	+0.583	9	319.5	Hard / Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.745	+0.657	9	319.5	Hard / Soft
5	Enea Bastianini	01:29.792	+0.704	8	318.5	Hard / Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.848	+0.760	9	311.2	Soft / Soft
7	Johann Zarco	01:29.942	+0.854	9	312.1	Hard / Soft
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.963	+0.875	9	309.4	Soft / Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.107	+1.019	8	316.7	Soft / Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	01:30.418	+1.330	8	313.9	Hard / Soft
11	Raul Fernandez	01:30.524	+1.436	8	313.9	Hard / Soft
Retired	Marc Marquez		—	0	0.0	Hard / Soft

Sprint · 28.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	19:41.354	12	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.519	—	11	Soft
2	Enea Bastianini	+0.107	9	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.571	+0.06%	11	Soft
3	Marc Marquez	+1.701	7	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.556	+0.04%	11	Soft
4	Marco Bezzecchi	+3.072	6	13	Soft / Soft	1:30.615	+0.11%	11	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	+5.967	5	13	Soft / Soft	1:30.936	+0.46%	11	Soft
6	Pedro Acosta	+6.210	4	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.758	+0.26%	10	Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	+6.664	3	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.056	+0.59%	11	Soft
8	Johann Zarco	+6.938	2	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.006	+0.54%	11	Soft
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+7.706	1	13	Soft / Soft	1:30.967	+0.50%	11	Soft
10	Jorge Martin	+9.104	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.763	+0.27%	11	Soft
11	Jack Miller	+9.618	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.206	+0.76%	11	Soft
12	Fabio Quartararo	+9.843	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:31.212	+0.77%	11	Soft
13	Brad Binder	+11.118	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.130	+0.68%	10	Soft
14	Alex Marquez	+12.418	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.255	+0.81%	11	Soft
15	Alex Rins	+12.579	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:31.347	+0.92%	9	Soft
16	Aleix Espargaro	+12.952	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.258	+0.82%	11	Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	+13.351	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.326	+0.89%	10	Soft
18	Luca Marini	+15.496	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:31.356	+0.93%	11	Soft
19	Raul Fernandez	+29.895	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.924	+0.45%	10	Soft
Retired	Augusto Fernandez		0	11	Hard / Soft	1:31.804	+1.42%	8	Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		0	1	Hard / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 29.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:30.511	—	7	313.9	Hard / Medium	1:31.489	+0.32%	5	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	01:30.561	+0.050	7	312.1	Soft / Medium	1:31.674	+0.52%	4	Medium
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.614	+0.103	7	314.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
4	Pedro Acosta	01:30.673	+0.162	7	314.8	Hard / Medium	1:31.198	—	5	Medium
5	Raul Fernandez	01:30.711	+0.200	6	309.4	Hard / Medium	—			—
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.734	+0.223	7	309.4	Soft / Medium	1:31.658	+0.50%	5	Medium
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.791	+0.280	7	310.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
8	Enea Bastianini	01:30.916	+0.405	7	318.5	Hard / Medium	—			—
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.953	+0.442	6	308.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
10	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.987	+0.476	7	312.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Luca Marini	01:31.001	+0.490	7	309.4	Hard / Medium	1:32.478	+1.40%	5	Medium
12	Maverick Viñales	01:31.011	+0.500	7	309.4	Hard / Medium	—			—
13	Johann Zarco	01:31.084	+0.573	7	309.4	Hard / Medium	1:32.516	+1.45%	5	Medium
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.159	+0.648	7	315.7	Hard / Medium	—			—
15	Jack Miller	01:31.272	+0.761	7	313.0	Hard / Medium	1:31.833	+0.70%	5	Medium
16	Brad Binder	01:31.360	+0.849	7	315.7	Hard / Medium	—			—
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.364	+0.853	7	310.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Joan Mir	01:31.430	+0.919	7	312.1	Hard / Medium	1:34.337	+3.44%	5	Medium
19	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.517	+1.006	7	311.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
20	Alex Marquez	01:31.620	+1.109	6	310.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Alex Rins	01:31.961	+1.450	7	308.5	Hard / Medium	1:32.177	+1.07%	5	Medium

Race · 29.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	41:04.389	25	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.006	—	24	Medium
2	Pedro Acosta	+1.404	20	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.061	+0.06%	24	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	+5.595	16	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.141	+0.15%	25	Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	+6.507	13	27	Soft / Medium	1:31.238	+0.26%	24	Medium
5	Marco Bezzecchi	+6.772	11	27	Soft / Medium	1:31.244	+0.26%	24	Medium
6	Maverick Viñales	+11.330	10	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.282	+0.30%	21	Medium
7	Fabio Quartararo	+13.203	9	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.331	+0.36%	23	Medium
8	Brad Binder	+14.862	8	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.493	+0.54%	22	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	+15.151	7	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.520	+0.57%	24	Medium
10	Raul Fernandez	+21.079	6	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.629	+0.69%	25	Medium
11	Alex Rins	+33.633	5	27	Soft / Medium	1:32.224	+1.34%	25	Medium
12	Takaaki Nakagami	+43.696	4	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.893	+0.98%	25	Medium
Out on lap 1	Aleix Espargaro		0	0	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Alex Marquez		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Augusto Fernandez		0	19	Hard / Medium	1:31.974	+1.06%	14	Medium
Retired	Enea Bastianini		0	20	Hard / Medium	1:31.043	+0.04%	17	Medium
Retired	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	8	Soft / Soft	1:31.702	+0.77%	6	Soft
Out on lap 1	Jack Miller		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		0	12	Hard / Medium	1:32.192	+1.30%	9	Medium
Out on lap 1	Luca Marini		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	11	Hard / Medium	1:31.728	+0.79%	9	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Johann Zarco	56%	1 ✓
2	Aleix Espargaro	42%	3
3	Alex Rins	29%	5
4	Luca Marini	21%	7
5	Brad Binder	19%	9
6	Joan Mir	10%	10
7	Takaaki Nakagami	7%	8
8	Augusto Fernandez	4%	11
9	Jack Miller	3%	6
10	Raul Fernandez	3%	2 ✓
11	Alex Marquez	4%	4

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Franco Morbidelli	36%	65%	88%	9
2	Jorge Martin	22%	52%	80%	1
3	Francesco Bagnaia	14%	46%	76%	4
4	Enea Bastianini	5%	32%	67%	5
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	4%	25%	53%	8
6	Fabio Quartararo	6%	23%	55%	6
7	Marco Bezzecchi	2%	12%	40%	2
8	Pedro Acosta	3%	15%	38%	3
9	Maverick Viñales	3%	9%	30%	10
10	Johann Zarco	3%	9%	26%	7
11	Raul Fernandez	3%	10%	29%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	33%	67%	82%	94%	5%	10
Marco Bezzecchi	2	19%	50%	67%	80%	17%	4
Pedro Acosta	3	15%	51%	73%	93%	4%	6
Francesco Bagnaia	4	10%	37%	59%	84%	12%	1
Enea Bastianini	5	7%	26%	51%	82%	12%	2
Fabio Quartararo	6	5%	22%	45%	83%	10%	12
Johann Zarco	7	3%	14%	33%	71%	17%	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	2%	10%	26%	68%	18%	9
Franco Morbidelli	9	2%	7%	19%	70%	7%	5
Maverick Viñales	10	1%	5%	13%	63%	7%	7
Raul Fernandez	11	1%	4%	10%	54%	5%	19
Marc Marquez	12	1%	2%	7%	43%	13%	3
Aleix Espargaro	13	0%	2%	4%	28%	26%	16
Alex Marquez	14	0%	1%	3%	26%	13%	14
Alex Rins	15	0%	1%	2%	19%	19%	15
Jack Miller	16	0%	1%	2%	16%	5%	11
Luca Marini	17	0%	1%	1%	10%	15%	18
Takaaki Nakagami	18	0%	1%	1%	7%	10%	17
Brad Binder	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	10%	13
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	23%	—
Augusto Fernandez	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	15%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	17%	45%	63%	76%	22%	1
Marco Bezzecchi	2	23%	55%	73%	83%	15%	5
Pedro Acosta	3	13%	42%	63%	78%	21%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	4	20%	50%	64%	74%	25%	3
Enea Bastianini	5	21%	53%	71%	81%	16%	—
Fabio Quartararo	6	0%	4%	16%	67%	13%	7
Johann Zarco	7	2%	11%	30%	72%	18%	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	1%	6%	20%	68%	16%	—
Franco Morbidelli	9	1%	11%	30%	75%	17%	4
Maverick Viñales	10	0%	4%	16%	66%	13%	6
Raul Fernandez	11	1%	5%	17%	63%	21%	10
Marc Marquez	12	2%	13%	34%	76%	17%	—
Aleix Espargaro	13	0%	0%	1%	21%	23%	—
Alex Marquez	14	0%	0%	1%	21%	23%	—
Alex Rins	15	0%	0%	0%	11%	22%	11
Jack Miller	16	0%	0%	1%	18%	24%	—
Luca Marini	17	0%	0%	0%	10%	8%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	18	0%	0%	1%	23%	14%	12
Brad Binder	19	0%	0%	0%	15%	13%	8
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	0%	1%	29%	—
Augusto Fernandez	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	23%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Enea Bastianini	31% → 53%	+22	9% → 21%
Francesco Bagnaia	33% → 50%	+17	10% → 20%
Marc Marquez	4% → 13%	+10	1% → 2%
Dropping
Fabio Quartararo	26% → 4%	−22	7% → 0%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	15% → 6%	−9	4% → 1%
Johann Zarco	18% → 11%	−7	4% → 2%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.519	—	+0.221	Soft	11
Marc Marquez	1:30.556	+0.037	+0.210	Soft	11
Enea Bastianini	1:30.571	+0.052	+0.319	Soft	11
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.615	+0.096	+0.553	Soft	11
Pedro Acosta	1:30.758	+0.239	+0.448	Soft	10
Jorge Martin	1:30.763	+0.244	+0.457	Soft	11
Raul Fernandez	1:30.924	+0.405	+0.667	Soft	10
Franco Morbidelli	1:30.936	+0.417	+0.512	Soft	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:30.967	+0.448	+0.320	Soft	11
Johann Zarco	1:31.006	+0.487	+0.344	Soft	11
Maverick Viñales	1:31.056	+0.537	+0.292	Soft	11
Brad Binder	1:31.130	+0.611	+0.327	Soft	10
Jack Miller	1:31.206	+0.687	+0.105	Soft	11
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.212	+0.693	+0.275	Soft	11
Alex Marquez	1:31.255	+0.736	+0.356	Soft	11
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.258	+0.739	+0.209	Soft	11
Takaaki Nakagami	1:31.326	+0.807	+0.359	Soft	10
Alex Rins	1:31.347	+0.828	+0.217	Soft	9
Luca Marini	1:31.356	+0.837	+0.308	Soft	11
Augusto Fernandez	1:31.804	+1.285	+0.437	Soft	8

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,313 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.31%	Pedro Acosta +0.36%	Enea Bastianini +0.51%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.46%	Maverick Viñales +0.52%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.48%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Aleix Espargaro +0.48%	Franco Morbidelli +0.50%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.01%	Pedro Acosta +0.11%	Luca Marini +0.23%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Fermin Aldeguer +0.58%	Alex Rins +0.91%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi +0.13%	Luca Marini +0.27%	Pedro Acosta +0.35%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.19%	Miguel Oliveira +0.47%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Jorge Martin +0.42%	Enea Bastianini +0.50%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Pedro Acosta +0.21%
S4	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.33%	Jorge Martin +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Maverick Viñales +0.36%	Enea Bastianini +0.43%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.39%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.03%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.03%	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%	Aleix Espargaro +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.36%	Marc Marquez +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.41%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.33%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.07%	Miguel Oliveira +0.13%	Marc Marquez +0.68%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Franco Morbidelli +0.40%	Miguel Oliveira +0.77%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

38/100

Position index

25%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.65

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 4 races (2022–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Martin	341	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	317	−24
3	Enea Bastianini	282	−59
4	Marc Marquez	281	−60
5	Brad Binder	165	−176
6	Pedro Acosta	157	−184

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

8/27

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.306 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P21 to P9.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Francesco Bagnaia (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:31.359	—	+0.457	Medium	10
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.500	+0.141	+0.275	Medium	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.541	+0.182	+0.221	Medium	25
Maverick Viñales	1:31.601	+0.242	+0.292	Medium	24
Enea Bastianini	1:31.629	+0.270	+0.319	Medium	25
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:31.680	+0.321	+0.320	Medium	24
Brad Binder	1:31.827	+0.468	+0.327	Medium	25
Marco Bezzecchi	1:31.852	+0.493	+0.553	Medium	25
Joan Mir	1:31.957	+0.598	+0.562	Medium	9
Jack Miller	1:31.971	+0.612	+0.105	Medium	25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Fermin AldeguerDucati
2024Jorge MartinDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Miguel OliveiraKTM

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	5/19	26%
2024	9/21	43%
2023	7/21	33%
2022	2/23	9%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	76%	+0.60%	−0.032	1	3	5.9
Soft	24%	+1.31%	+0.082	0	0	11.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.