Round 1 of 20 Aftermath

Qatar Grand Prix 2022

5.380 m · 21 laps · since 2004

04.03 – 06.03.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	42:13.198	25
2	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+0.346	20
3	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+1.351	16
4	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+2.242	13
5	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+4.099	11
6	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+4.843	10
7	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+8.810	9
8	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+10.536	8
9	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+10.543	7
10	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+14.967	6
11	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+16.712	5
12	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+23.216	4
13	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+27.283	3
14	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+27.374	2
15	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+41.107	1
16	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+41.119	0
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+41.349	0
18	Raul Fernandez	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+42.357	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 27%	Enea Bastianini · 23% · from P2	0.96 / 0.96	1.7 / 1.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:54.748	—	+0.319	Medium	20
Pol Espargaro	1:54.797	+0.049	+0.406	Soft	20
Brad Binder	1:54.880	+0.132	+0.327	Medium	20
Aleix Espargaro	1:54.911	+0.163	+0.209	Medium	20
Marc Marquez	1:54.985	+0.237	+0.210	Soft	20
Joan Mir	1:55.032	+0.284	+0.562	Medium	19
Francesco Bagnaia	1:55.074	+0.326	+0.221	Medium	9
Alex Rins	1:55.173	+0.425	+0.217	Medium	20
Johann Zarco	1:55.185	+0.437	+0.344	Soft	20
Jorge Martin	1:55.214	+0.466	+0.457	Soft	9
Miguel Oliveira	1:55.230	+0.482	+0.193	Medium	8
Alex Marquez	1:55.329	+0.581	+0.356	Soft	7
Fabio Quartararo	1:55.353	+0.605	+0.275	Medium	18
Takaaki Nakagami	1:55.391	+0.643	+0.359	Soft	20
Franco Morbidelli	1:55.453	+0.705	+0.512	Soft	20
Maverick Viñales	1:55.526	+0.778	+0.292	Medium	19
Marco Bezzecchi	1:55.537	+0.789	+0.553	Soft	4
Andrea Dovizioso	1:55.951	+1.203	+0.226	Medium	18
Luca Marini	1:56.014	+1.266	+0.308	Soft	20
Raul Fernandez	1:56.540	+1.792	+0.667	Medium	20
Remy Gardner	1:56.556	+1.808	+1.660	Medium	20
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:56.571	+1.823	+0.320	Medium	19
Darryn Binder	1:56.610	+1.862	+0.272	Medium	20

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

5/22

Laps led by the winner

Enea Bastianini

0.346 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Darryn Binder, from P24 to P16.

Longest battle: Fabio Di Giannantonio vs Raul Fernandez (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	18:14:44	Jack Miller	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	18:14:46	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	18:18:47	Alex Marquez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	18:20:38	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	18:22:25	Jorge Martin	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	18:22:25	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Pol Espargaro (started P6).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Marquez	18	11	+7
Pol Espargaro	6	1	+5
Brad Binder	7	3	+4
Jack Miller	4	10	−6
Johann Zarco	13	19	−6
Jorge Martin	1	7	−6

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Brad Binder	7→2	+4.7
Pol Espargaro	6→3	+3.0
Johann Zarco	13→8	+2.5
Raul Fernandez	23→18	−1.0
Franco Morbidelli	12→11	−1.1
Fabio Di Giannantonio	21→17	−1.3

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	58%	+0.47%	+0.012	1	2	10.1
Soft	42%	+0.53%	−0.002	0	1	8.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

22.0 °C

Air

max 22.9 °C

58%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

8 km/h

Wind

gusts 26 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 04.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Brad Binder	01:54.851	—	16	347.2	Hard / Medium	1:56.889	+0.76%	6	Hard
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:54.907	+0.056	17	350.6	Hard / Medium	—			—
3	Alex Rins	01:54.978	+0.127	17	355.2	Soft / Soft	1:56.482	+0.41%	5	Hard
4	Pol Espargaro	01:55.126	+0.275	17	350.6	Hard / Hard	—			—
5	Marc Marquez	01:55.137	+0.286	18	352.9	Hard / Medium	1:59.236	+2.79%	5	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:55.294	+0.443	18	345.0	Hard / Hard	1:56.474	+0.41%	11	Hard
7	Joan Mir	01:55.371	+0.520	16	352.9	Hard / Hard	—			—
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.378	+0.527	16	348.3	Hard / Hard	—			—
9	Alex Marquez	01:55.385	+0.534	17	349.5	Hard / Medium	1:57.539	+1.32%	5	Hard
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:55.470	+0.619	17	347.2	Hard / Medium	1:57.799	+1.55%	5	Hard
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:55.600	+0.749	18	345.0	Hard / Hard	1:56.003	—	12	Hard
12	Jorge Martin	01:55.688	+0.837	17	352.9	Hard / Medium	1:56.201	+0.17%	7	Medium
13	Jack Miller	01:55.745	+0.894	18	352.9	Hard / Hard	1:56.166	+0.14%	10	Hard
14	Enea Bastianini	01:55.768	+0.917	14	352.9	Hard / Hard	1:57.275	+1.10%	5	Hard
15	Maverick Viñales	01:55.815	+0.964	16	348.3	Hard / Hard	1:56.463	+0.40%	6	Hard
16	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.895	+1.044	17	343.9	Hard / Hard	—			—
17	Johann Zarco	01:55.960	+1.109	12	352.9	Hard / Hard	—			—
18	Francesco Bagnaia	01:56.112	+1.261	14	348.3	Hard / Hard	1:56.882	+0.76%	7	Hard
19	Remy Gardner	01:56.262	+1.411	16	347.2	Medium / Medium	1:59.261	+2.81%	5	Hard
20	Luca Marini	01:56.540	+1.689	13	348.3	Hard / Hard	—			—
21	Raul Fernandez	01:56.660	+1.809	16	351.7	Hard / Hard	1:57.577	+1.36%	5	Hard
22	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:56.753	+1.902	14	350.6	Hard / Medium	1:57.666	+1.43%	6	Medium
23	Darryn Binder	01:57.347	+2.496	16	343.9	Hard / Medium	1:59.568	+3.07%	6	Hard
24	Marco Bezzecchi	01:57.430	+2.579	14	348.3	Hard / Hard	—			—

FP2 · 04.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Rins	01:53.432	—	17	355.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:53.467	+0.035	17	352.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Joan Mir	01:53.579	+0.147	16	354.0	Soft / Soft	1:55.104	+0.03%	6	Medium
4	Jorge Martin	01:53.652	+0.220	17	352.9	Soft / Soft	1:55.696	+0.55%	6	Medium
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:53.845	+0.413	19	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:55.650	+0.51%	9	Medium
6	Jack Miller	01:53.870	+0.438	16	351.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:53.886	+0.454	15	351.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:53.906	+0.474	17	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:55.065	—	6	Medium
9	Pol Espargaro	01:53.963	+0.531	14	354.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:53.971	+0.539	17	348.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Enea Bastianini	01:54.013	+0.581	14	354.0	Soft / Soft	1:55.452	+0.34%	5	Medium
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:54.038	+0.606	17	350.6	Soft / Soft	1:56.173	+0.96%	4	Medium
13	Miguel Oliveira	01:54.053	+0.621	16	347.2	Soft / Soft	1:55.792	+0.63%	5	Medium
14	Andrea Dovizioso	01:54.153	+0.721	18	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Brad Binder	01:54.247	+0.815	15	348.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Alex Marquez	01:54.475	+1.043	15	351.7	Soft / Soft	1:55.465	+0.35%	6	Medium
17	Maverick Viñales	01:54.524	+1.092	14	354.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Johann Zarco	01:54.565	+1.133	19	352.9	Soft / Soft	1:55.559	+0.43%	5	Medium
19	Raul Fernandez	01:54.884	+1.452	16	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:56.806	+1.51%	7	Medium
20	Marco Bezzecchi	01:54.900	+1.468	16	348.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Remy Gardner	01:54.929	+1.497	16	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:57.678	+2.27%	6	Medium
22	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:55.371	+1.939	17	352.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
23	Luca Marini	01:55.775	+2.343	13	350.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
24	Darryn Binder	01:55.915	+2.483	15	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:57.254	+1.90%	5	Medium

FP3 · 05.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Enea Bastianini	01:53.790	—	15	350.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Pol Espargaro	01:53.803	+0.013	15	350.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:53.855	+0.065	16	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:58.799	+3.09%	5	Soft
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:53.939	+0.149	15	340.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Brad Binder	01:54.011	+0.221	16	345.0	Hard / Medium	—			—
6	Johann Zarco	01:54.105	+0.315	17	347.2	Soft / Soft	1:55.276	+0.04%	7	Medium
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:54.404	+0.614	17	340.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
8	Joan Mir	01:54.576	+0.786	16	347.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
9	Jorge Martin	01:54.619	+0.829	17	348.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Maverick Viñales	01:54.658	+0.868	15	345.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
11	Alex Rins	01:54.798	+1.008	13	347.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
12	Luca Marini	01:54.815	+1.025	15	347.2	Hard / Medium	1:55.892	+0.57%	5	Medium
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:54.902	+1.112	15	347.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.016	+1.226	14	347.2	Hard / Medium	1:55.236	—	7	Medium
15	Marc Marquez	01:55.097	+1.307	18	346.1	Hard / Soft	1:55.536	+0.26%	5	Soft
16	Remy Gardner	01:55.116	+1.326	16	342.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:55.154	+1.364	16	346.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Marco Bezzecchi	01:55.191	+1.401	16	350.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
19	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.193	+1.403	17	343.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Jack Miller	01:55.326	+1.536	20	345.0	Hard / Hard	1:56.132	+0.78%	16	Hard
21	Darryn Binder	01:55.383	+1.593	15	345.0	Hard / Medium	—			—
22	Alex Marquez	01:55.402	+1.612	17	346.1	Hard / Medium	—			—
23	Franco Morbidelli	01:55.431	+1.641	12	340.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
24	Raul Fernandez	01:55.690	+1.900	14	341.7	Hard / Medium	—			—

FP4 · 05.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:54.420	—	14	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:55.202	+0.22%	9	Soft
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:54.716	+0.296	12	343.9	Medium / Soft	1:55.331	+0.34%	5	Medium
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:54.808	+0.388	12	345.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:54.809	+0.389	13	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:55.059	+0.10%	9	Medium
5	Pol Espargaro	01:54.810	+0.390	8	345.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Brad Binder	01:54.818	+0.398	10	341.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:54.828	+0.408	13	341.7	Medium / Soft	1:55.301	+0.31%	5	Soft
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:54.830	+0.410	12	348.3	Soft / Medium	1:55.799	+0.74%	5	Soft
9	Marc Marquez	01:54.831	+0.411	12	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:54.946	—	5	Soft
10	Enea Bastianini	01:54.864	+0.444	11	348.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Joan Mir	01:54.969	+0.549	14	343.9	Soft / Medium	1:55.273	+0.28%	5	Medium
12	Jorge Martin	01:55.005	+0.585	11	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:55.079	+0.12%	5	Soft
13	Maverick Viñales	01:55.015	+0.595	12	343.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Jack Miller	01:55.118	+0.698	16	349.5	Soft / Soft	1:55.484	+0.47%	14	Soft
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:55.228	+0.808	13	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:55.321	+0.33%	7	Soft
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:55.276	+0.856	9	348.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Alex Marquez	01:55.341	+0.921	14	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:55.606	+0.57%	10	Soft
18	Luca Marini	01:55.415	+0.995	10	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Alex Rins	01:55.475	+1.055	13	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:55.640	+0.60%	7	Soft
20	Remy Gardner	01:55.589	+1.169	12	338.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Raul Fernandez	01:55.702	+1.282	9	342.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
22	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.793	+1.373	10	337.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
23	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:56.468	+2.048	11	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:56.602	+1.44%	6	Soft
24	Darryn Binder	01:56.717	+2.297	10	338.5	Soft / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 05.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Brad Binder	01:53.512	—	7	341.7	— / —
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:53.654	+0.142	7	340.6	— / —
3	Johann Zarco	01:53.780	+0.268	5	345.0	— / —
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:53.819	+0.307	7	339.6	Soft / Soft
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:53.915	+0.403	7	346.1	Soft / Soft
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:54.038	+0.526	7	342.8	Soft / Soft
7	Luca Marini	01:54.222	+0.710	6	343.9	— / —
8	Alex Marquez	01:54.224	+0.712	7	348.3	— / —
9	Maverick Viñales	01:54.228	+0.716	6	346.1	— / —
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:54.244	+0.732	7	342.8	Soft / Soft
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:54.276	+0.764	7	346.1	Soft / Soft
12	Remy Gardner	01:54.378	+0.866	6	340.6	Medium / Soft
13	Raul Fernandez	01:54.889	+1.377	6	342.8	Medium / Soft
14	Darryn Binder	01:56.011	+2.499	5	343.9	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 05.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:53.011	—	7	345.0	Soft / Soft
2	Enea Bastianini	01:53.158	+0.147	7	349.5	Soft / Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:53.283	+0.272	7	345.0	Soft / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:53.298	+0.287	7	345.0	Soft / Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:53.319	+0.308	7	343.9	Soft / Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	01:53.346	+0.335	7	345.0	Soft / Soft
7	Brad Binder	01:53.350	+0.339	3	342.8	Soft / Soft
8	Joan Mir	01:53.407	+0.396	7	346.1	Soft / Soft
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:53.411	+0.400	7	345.0	Soft / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:53.481	+0.470	7	345.0	Soft / Soft
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:53.635	+0.624	6	336.4	Soft / Soft
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:53.982	+0.971	7	341.7	Soft / Soft

Warm Up · 06.03 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Enea Bastianini	01:54.519	—	10	350.6	Soft / Medium	1:55.995	+0.78%	8	Medium
2	Johann Zarco	01:54.615	+0.096	11	352.9	Hard / Soft	1:55.330	+0.20%	8	Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:54.755	+0.236	10	352.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:54.766	+0.247	10	345.0	Hard / Medium	1:55.376	+0.24%	7	Medium
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:54.781	+0.262	10	342.8	Soft / Soft	1:55.246	+0.13%	6	Soft
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:54.882	+0.363	10	348.3	Soft / Medium	1:55.102	—	6	Medium
7	Jorge Martin	01:54.897	+0.378	9	350.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:54.928	+0.409	10	342.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Alex Rins	01:54.940	+0.421	10	349.5	Soft / Medium	1:55.122	+0.02%	5	Medium
10	Joan Mir	01:54.992	+0.473	11	352.9	Hard / Soft	1:55.357	+0.22%	8	Soft
11	Marc Marquez	01:55.068	+0.549	10	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:56.730	+1.41%	4	Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:55.207	+0.688	10	349.5	Hard / Soft	1:55.625	+0.45%	7	Soft
13	Alex Marquez	01:55.304	+0.785	11	349.5	Hard / Soft	1:55.629	+0.46%	9	Soft
14	Jack Miller	01:55.313	+0.794	10	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:55.984	+0.77%	8	Soft
15	Maverick Viñales	01:55.366	+0.847	9	350.6	Hard / Medium	—			—
16	Pol Espargaro	01:55.379	+0.860	9	346.1	Hard / Soft	1:56.074	+0.84%	4	Soft
17	Raul Fernandez	01:55.408	+0.889	6	343.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Marco Bezzecchi	01:55.421	+0.902	10	352.9	Hard / Soft	1:55.882	+0.68%	8	Soft
19	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:55.468	+0.949	9	348.3	Soft / Medium	1:55.591	+0.43%	5	Medium
20	Brad Binder	01:55.514	+0.995	10	345.0	Hard / Soft	1:55.812	+0.62%	6	Soft
21	Luca Marini	01:55.579	+1.060	10	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.662	+1.143	10	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:56.593	+1.30%	7	Soft
23	Remy Gardner	01:55.880	+1.361	9	346.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
24	Darryn Binder	01:56.711	+2.192	10	346.1	Soft / Medium	—			—

Race · 06.03

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Enea Bastianini	42:13.198	25	22	Soft / Medium	1:54.748	—	20	Medium
2	Brad Binder	+0.346	20	22	Medium / Medium	1:54.880	+0.12%	20	Medium
3	Pol Espargaro	+1.351	16	22	Soft / Soft	1:54.797	+0.04%	20	Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	+2.242	13	22	Soft / Medium	1:54.911	+0.14%	20	Medium
5	Marc Marquez	+4.099	11	22	Soft / Soft	1:54.985	+0.21%	20	Soft
6	Joan Mir	+4.843	10	22	Soft / Medium	1:55.032	+0.25%	19	Medium
7	Alex Rins	+8.810	9	22	Soft / Medium	1:55.173	+0.37%	20	Medium
8	Johann Zarco	+10.536	8	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.185	+0.38%	20	Soft
9	Fabio Quartararo	+10.543	7	22	Soft / Medium	1:55.353	+0.53%	18	Medium
10	Takaaki Nakagami	+14.967	6	22	Medium / Soft	1:55.391	+0.56%	20	Soft
11	Franco Morbidelli	+16.712	5	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.453	+0.61%	20	Soft
12	Maverick Viñales	+23.216	4	22	Soft / Medium	1:55.526	+0.68%	19	Medium
13	Luca Marini	+27.283	3	22	Soft / Soft	1:56.014	+1.10%	20	Soft
14	Andrea Dovizioso	+27.374	2	22	Soft / Medium	1:55.951	+1.05%	18	Medium
15	Remy Gardner	+41.107	1	22	Medium / Medium	1:56.556	+1.58%	20	Medium
16	Darryn Binder	+41.119	0	22	Soft / Medium	1:56.610	+1.62%	20	Medium
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+41.349	0	22	Soft / Medium	1:56.571	+1.59%	19	Medium
18	Raul Fernandez	+42.357	0	22	Medium / Medium	1:56.540	+1.56%	20	Medium
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	9	Soft / Soft	1:55.329	+0.51%	7	Soft
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	11	Soft / Medium	1:55.074	+0.28%	9	Medium
Retired	Jack Miller		0	6	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Jorge Martin		0	11	Soft / Soft	1:55.214	+0.41%	9	Soft
Retired	Marco Bezzecchi		0	6	Soft / Soft	1:55.537	+0.69%	4	Soft
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	10	Medium / Medium	1:55.230	+0.42%	8	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Brad Binder	1:55.050*	—	+0.327	Medium	4
Miguel Oliveira	1:55.685*	+0.635	+0.193	Medium	4
Raul Fernandez	1:55.865*	+0.815	+0.667	Medium	3
Remy Gardner	1:56.885*	+1.835	+1.660	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Fabio Quartararo	56%	2 ✓
2	Brad Binder	42%	1 ✓
3	Takaaki Nakagami	33%	6
4	Miguel Oliveira	20%	4
5	Johann Zarco	17%	3
6	Andrea Dovizioso	10%	10
7	Alex Marquez	8%	8
8	Maverick Viñales	4%	9
9	Luca Marini	2%	7
10	Raul Fernandez	3%	13
11	Marco Bezzecchi	3%	5
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	2%	11
13	Remy Gardner	0%	12
14	Darryn Binder	0%	14

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Alex Rins	35%	66%	90%	10
2	Marc Marquez	27%	54%	84%	3
3	Joan Mir	15%	48%	79%	8
4	Jorge Martin	3%	32%	68%	1
5	Enea Bastianini	4%	27%	53%	2
6	Pol Espargaro	6%	21%	54%	6
7	Franco Morbidelli	1%	11%	41%	12
8	Francesco Bagnaia	2%	11%	37%	9
9	Jack Miller	2%	8%	28%	4
10	Aleix Espargaro	2%	8%	23%	5
11	Fabio Quartararo	3%	11%	29%	11
12	Brad Binder	0%	3%	16%	7

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	27%	52%	64%	73%	26%	—
Enea Bastianini	2	23%	52%	69%	80%	17%	1
Marc Marquez	3	16%	47%	65%	82%	15%	5
Jack Miller	4	11%	35%	53%	71%	25%	—
Aleix Espargaro	5	7%	26%	46%	69%	26%	4
Pol Espargaro	6	5%	23%	44%	73%	19%	3
Brad Binder	7	4%	20%	40%	76%	16%	2
Joan Mir	8	3%	15%	32%	70%	17%	6
Francesco Bagnaia	9	2%	9%	20%	58%	29%	—
Alex Rins	10	1%	6%	18%	58%	21%	7
Fabio Quartararo	11	1%	5%	14%	58%	14%	9
Franco Morbidelli	12	1%	3%	10%	49%	16%	11
Johann Zarco	13	0%	2%	8%	41%	17%	8
Miguel Oliveira	14	0%	1%	6%	34%	19%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	15	0%	1%	4%	29%	19%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	16	0%	1%	3%	24%	14%	10
Luca Marini	17	0%	0%	2%	19%	5%	13
Alex Marquez	18	0%	0%	1%	11%	24%	—
Maverick Viñales	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	11%	12
Andrea Dovizioso	20	0%	0%	0%	7%	12%	14
Fabio Di Giannantonio	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	19%	17
Remy Gardner	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	19%	15
Raul Fernandez	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	18
Darryn Binder	24	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	16

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,426 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.41%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.50%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%	Pedro Acosta +0.47%	Ai Ogura +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Alex Marquez +0.41%	Alex Rins +0.51%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Franco Morbidelli +0.31%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.29%	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%
S3	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.55%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.45%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%	Brad Binder +0.41%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Alex Marquez +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.47%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.49%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.19%	Raul Fernandez +0.43%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.19%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.21%
S4	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.19%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%	Joan Mir +0.37%
S2	Pol Espargaro +0.40%	Aleix Espargaro +0.43%	Enea Bastianini +0.47%
S3	Alex Rins +0.07%	Miguel Oliveira +0.19%	Johann Zarco +0.42%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Alex Rins +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Franco Morbidelli +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.08%	Jack Miller +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Danilo Petrucci +0.24%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.27%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.47%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.45%
S4	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Danilo Petrucci +0.22%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.26%
S2	Valentino Rossi +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.43%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.45%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.15%	Alex Rins +0.32%	Danilo Petrucci +0.35%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.28%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.34%

Fastest per sector: 2022

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

57/100

Position index

14%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 56%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

Pending · no data yet

The last race here in numbers

2021 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

8/22

Laps led by the winner

Maverick Viñales

1.092 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Joan Mir, from P10 to P4.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Johann Zarco (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2021 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:55.462	—	+0.292	Soft	19
Joan Mir	1:55.464	+0.002	+0.562	Soft	20
Pol Espargaro	1:55.520	+0.058	+0.406	Soft	20
Aleix Espargaro	1:55.532	+0.070	+0.209	Soft	20
Alex Rins	1:55.620	+0.158	+0.217	Soft	20
Alex Marquez	1:55.620	+0.158	+0.356	Soft	10
Fabio Quartararo	1:55.662	+0.200	+0.275	Soft	17
Francesco Bagnaia	1:55.685	+0.223	+0.221	Soft	20
Jack Miller	1:55.690	+0.228	+0.105	Soft	20
Johann Zarco	1:55.706	+0.244	+0.344	Soft	20

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	1/22	5%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	6/24	25%
2021	3/22	14%
2019	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2021 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.24%	+0.040	1	3	10.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.