Round 16 of 20 Aftermath

Japanese Grand Prix 2022

4.801 m · 24 laps · since 1999

23.09 – 25.09.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	42:29.174	25
2	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+3.409	20
3	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+4.136	16
4	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+7.784	13
5	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+8.185	11
6	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+8.348	10
7	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+9.879	9
8	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+10.193	8
9	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+10.318	7
10	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+16.419	6
11	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+16.586	5
12	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+17.456	4
13	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+18.219	3
14	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+19.012	2
15	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+19.201	1
16	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+25.473	0
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+27.006	0
18	Raul Fernandez	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+29.374	0
19	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+29.469	0
20	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+43.294	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Takuya Tsuda	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Tetsuta Nagashima	Honda	HRC Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 28%	Jack Miller · 4% · from P7	0.75 / 0.75	2.9 / 3.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jack Miller	1:45.779	—	+0.105	Hard	22
Brad Binder	1:46.004	+0.225	+0.327	Hard	19
Jorge Martin	1:46.106	+0.327	+0.457	Medium	19
Miguel Oliveira	1:46.146	+0.367	+0.193	Hard	22
Marc Marquez	1:46.161	+0.382	+0.210	Soft	21
Luca Marini	1:46.168	+0.389	+0.308	Hard	22
Enea Bastianini	1:46.194	+0.415	+0.319	Soft	21
Maverick Viñales	1:46.238	+0.459	+0.292	Medium	20
Francesco Bagnaia	1:46.265	+0.486	+0.221	Hard	19
Fabio Quartararo	1:46.278	+0.499	+0.275	Medium	20
Marco Bezzecchi	1:46.407	+0.628	+0.553	Hard	21
Johann Zarco	1:46.408	+0.629	+0.344	Medium	18
Pol Espargaro	1:46.516	+0.737	+0.406	Soft	19
Alex Marquez	1:46.561	+0.782	+0.356	Soft	19
Franco Morbidelli	1:46.566	+0.787	+0.512	Medium	22
Cal Crutchlow	1:46.578	+0.799	+0.729	Medium	22
Aleix Espargaro	1:46.645	+0.866	+0.209	Soft	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:46.798	+1.019	+0.320	Soft	22
Darryn Binder	1:46.847	+1.068	+0.272	Medium	9
Raul Fernandez	1:46.906	+1.127	+0.667	Hard	21
Remy Gardner	1:46.932	+1.153	+1.660	Hard	22
Alex Rins	1:47.200	+1.421	+0.217	Hard	9
Tetsuta Nagashima	1:47.241	+1.462	—	Medium	4
Takaaki Nakagami	1:47.443	+1.664	+0.359	Medium	19
Takuya Tsuda	1:48.444	+2.665	—	Medium	9

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

22/24

Laps led by the winner

Jack Miller

3.409 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Cal Crutchlow, from P23 to P15.

Longest battle: Marc Marquez vs Miguel Oliveira (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	15:00:50	Aleix Espargaro	Pit-lane start	Starting from pit lane
Race	15:17:16	Tetsuta Nagashima	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:21:56	Takuya Tsuda	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue
Race	15:25:14	Darryn Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:27:35	Alex Rins	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	15:42:03	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Race: 9 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Martin (started P5).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Rins	18	11	+7
Darryn Binder	24	17	+7
Takaaki Nakagami	25	20	+5
Aleix Espargaro	6	25	−19
Johann Zarco	2	7	−5
Tetsuta Nagashima	19	23	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Jack Miller	7→1	+5.7
Enea Bastianini	15→9	+2.8
Luca Marini	10→6	+2.6
Fabio Di Giannantonio	16→17	−4.5
Johann Zarco	2→11	−7.5
Aleix Espargaro	6→16	−10.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	40%	+0.75%	−0.002	0	1	11.1
Hard	36%	+0.46%	−0.003	1	2	8.7
Soft	24%	+0.72%	+0.006	0	0	11.8

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

24.1 °C

Air

max 25.4 °C

52%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

7 km/h

Wind

gusts 37 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 23.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:44.509	—	28	311.2	Soft / Soft	1:46.562	+0.86%	11	Medium
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:44.537	+0.028	26	313.0	Hard / Soft	1:47.565	+1.81%	5	Medium
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:44.558	+0.049	30	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:46.186	+0.51%	20	Medium
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:44.577	+0.068	26	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:46.286	+0.60%	6	Soft
5	Luca Marini	01:44.645	+0.136	27	312.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Marc Marquez	01:44.656	+0.147	26	311.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
7	Pol Espargaro	01:44.678	+0.169	26	312.1	missing / Soft	1:48.416	+2.62%	5	missing
8	Brad Binder	01:44.735	+0.226	30	311.2	Hard / Soft	1:47.821	+2.06%	15	Medium
9	Miguel Oliveira	01:44.743	+0.234	28	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:46.376	+0.69%	5	Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	01:44.797	+0.288	25	311.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
11	Johann Zarco	01:44.798	+0.289	25	313.9	Hard / Soft	1:46.464	+0.77%	6	Medium
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:44.886	+0.377	28	306.8	Hard / Soft	1:45.969	+0.30%	5	Soft
13	Alex Rins	01:44.913	+0.404	31	309.4	Soft / Soft	1:45.650	—	6	Soft
14	Enea Bastianini	01:44.978	+0.469	24	312.1	Hard / Soft	1:46.795	+1.08%	17	Medium
15	Jorge Martin	01:45.009	+0.500	28	313.0	Hard / Soft	1:47.920	+2.15%	6	Medium
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.065	+0.556	28	305.9	Hard / Soft	1:46.613	+0.91%	5	Medium
17	Cal Crutchlow	01:45.187	+0.678	27	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:48.010	+2.23%	5	Medium
18	Darryn Binder	01:45.366	+0.857	30	306.8	Medium / Soft	1:48.386	+2.59%	14	Medium
19	Marco Bezzecchi	01:45.426	+0.917	29	312.1	Hard / Soft	1:47.216	+1.48%	10	Medium
20	Alex Marquez	01:45.600	+1.091	30	308.5	Hard / Soft	1:47.252	+1.52%	7	Medium
21	Raul Fernandez	01:45.739	+1.230	27	309.4	missing / missing	1:47.072	+1.35%	5	Wet-Soft
22	Tetsuta Nagashima	01:45.845	+1.336	24	304.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Remy Gardner	01:45.991	+1.482	27	307.6	Hard / Soft	1:48.612	+2.80%	10	Hard
24	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:46.365	+1.856	24	311.2	Medium / Soft	1:47.259	+1.52%	9	Medium
25	Takuya Tsuda	01:46.718	+2.209	22	304.2	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 24.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:55.232	—	16	301.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:58.494	+1.38%	7	Wet-Soft
2	Jorge Martin	01:55.376	+0.144	19	304.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:58.065	+1.01%	9	Wet-Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:55.387	+0.155	15	302.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:55.428	+0.196	18	295.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:56.885	—	10	Wet-Soft
5	Johann Zarco	01:55.630	+0.398	18	302.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:56.168	+0.936	16	295.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:58.687	+1.54%	5	Wet-Soft
7	Enea Bastianini	01:56.197	+0.965	16	299.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:58.380	+1.28%	7	Wet-Soft
8	Alex Marquez	01:56.349	+1.117	18	300.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:58.280	+1.19%	7	Wet-Soft
9	Luca Marini	01:56.548	+1.316	16	302.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:59.047	+1.85%	5	Wet-Soft
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:56.561	+1.329	19	298.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:57.882	+0.85%	10	Wet-Soft
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:56.577	+1.345	13	300.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:56.588	+1.356	17	301.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:57.828	+0.81%	8	Wet-Soft
13	Marco Bezzecchi	01:56.655	+1.423	17	296.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:00.594	+3.17%	8	Wet-Soft
14	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.743	+1.511	16	291.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:58.214	+1.14%	6	Wet-Soft
15	Francesco Bagnaia	01:56.752	+1.520	17	303.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:59.630	+2.35%	7	Wet-Soft
16	Remy Gardner	01:56.851	+1.619	19	287.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:58.698	+1.55%	10	Wet-Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:56.874	+1.642	18	294.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:58.794	+1.63%	6	Wet-Soft
18	Maverick Viñales	01:56.925	+1.693	15	298.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
19	Pol Espargaro	01:57.003	+1.771	15	288.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:59.381	+2.14%	6	Wet-Soft
20	Raul Fernandez	01:57.292	+2.060	16	291.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:59.669	+2.38%	8	missing
21	Darryn Binder	01:57.606	+2.374	18	288.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:00.470	+3.07%	8	Wet-Soft
22	Tetsuta Nagashima	01:57.656	+2.424	17	297.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:00.881	+3.42%	7	Wet-Soft
23	Alex Rins	01:57.671	+2.439	17	295.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:04.068	+6.15%	5	Wet-Soft
24	Brad Binder	01:57.827	+2.595	16	292.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:00.562	+3.15%	6	Wet-Soft
25	Takuya Tsuda	01:58.631	+3.399	18	294.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:01.411	+3.87%	4	Wet-Soft

Q1 · 24.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:55.300	—	7	299.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:57.710	+0.77%	5	Wet-Soft
2	Jorge Martin	01:55.795	+0.495	8	305.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:57.971	+0.99%	6	Wet-Soft
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:55.934	+0.634	8	301.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:56.810	—	6	Wet-Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:56.006	+0.706	8	295.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:56.966	+0.13%	5	Wet-Soft
5	Enea Bastianini	01:56.130	+0.830	6	295.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:56.432	+1.132	8	302.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:57.484	+0.58%	6	Wet-Soft
7	Alex Marquez	01:56.578	+1.278	8	302.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:58.784	+1.69%	5	Wet-Soft
8	Alex Rins	01:56.656	+1.356	7	299.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
9	Tetsuta Nagashima	01:57.229	+1.929	8	300.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
10	Remy Gardner	01:57.288	+1.988	8	291.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:00.009	+2.74%	6	Wet-Soft
11	Takuya Tsuda	01:57.787	+2.487	8	293.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:58.972	+1.85%	6	Wet-Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	01:57.827	+2.527	7	291.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:58.115	+2.815	8	294.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
14	Darryn Binder	01:58.292	+2.992	7	290.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:58.717	+3.417	6	295.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—

Q2 · 24.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:55.214	—	8	301.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:55.810	—	5	Wet-Soft
2	Johann Zarco	01:55.422	+0.208	7	305.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
3	Brad Binder	01:55.537	+0.323	8	298.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
4	Maverick Viñales	01:55.620	+0.406	7	300.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
5	Jorge Martin	01:55.686	+0.472	8	306.8	missing / missing	1:59.224	+2.95%	6	missing
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.771	+0.557	8	300.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:01.519	+4.93%	6	Wet-Soft
7	Jack Miller	01:55.784	+0.570	8	305.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:57.236	+1.23%	6	Wet-Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:55.895	+0.681	7	294.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:56.326	+1.112	8	299.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:56.450	+0.55%	4	Wet-Soft
10	Luca Marini	01:56.354	+1.140	8	305.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:01.061	+4.53%	6	Wet-Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	01:57.354	+2.140	7	300.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:57.373	+2.159	8	301.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 25.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:45.085	—	11	314.8	Hard / Medium	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:45.370	+0.285	11	309.4	Hard / Medium	1:45.724	+0.07%	5	Medium
3	Jack Miller	01:45.391	+0.306	11	313.9	Hard / Hard	1:45.651	—	6	Hard
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:45.432	+0.347	12	313.9	Hard / Hard	1:46.034	+0.36%	10	Hard
5	Maverick Viñales	01:45.509	+0.424	11	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:46.012	+0.34%	8	Soft
6	Enea Bastianini	01:45.526	+0.441	11	313.9	Hard / Soft	1:45.726	+0.07%	5	Soft
7	Marc Marquez	01:45.583	+0.498	9	310.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.584	+0.499	10	312.1	Hard / Medium	1:45.758	+0.10%	7	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	01:45.636	+0.551	11	316.7	Hard / Medium	1:46.697	+0.99%	6	Medium
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:45.643	+0.558	11	311.2	Hard / Hard	1:46.056	+0.38%	9	Hard
11	Alex Rins	01:45.746	+0.661	10	312.1	Hard / Medium	—			—
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:45.796	+0.711	12	311.2	Hard / Soft	1:46.273	+0.59%	9	Soft
13	Brad Binder	01:45.802	+0.717	11	311.2	Hard / Soft	1:46.733	+1.02%	9	Soft
14	Cal Crutchlow	01:45.837	+0.752	11	309.4	Hard / Soft	1:46.587	+0.89%	8	Soft
15	Alex Marquez	01:45.843	+0.758	11	309.4	Hard / Soft	1:46.035	+0.36%	5	Soft
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.895	+0.810	12	306.8	Hard / Soft	1:46.168	+0.49%	10	Soft
17	Luca Marini	01:45.913	+0.828	11	316.7	Hard / Hard	1:46.031	+0.36%	6	Hard
18	Marco Bezzecchi	01:45.937	+0.852	11	313.0	Hard / Medium	1:46.140	+0.46%	8	Medium
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.047	+0.962	11	308.5	Hard / Medium	1:46.630	+0.93%	5	Medium
20	Pol Espargaro	01:46.398	+1.313	10	310.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
21	Raul Fernandez	01:46.400	+1.315	11	308.5	Hard / Medium	1:46.826	+1.11%	7	Medium
22	Darryn Binder	01:46.538	+1.453	11	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:46.718	+1.01%	6	Soft
23	Remy Gardner	01:46.539	+1.454	11	307.6	Hard / Soft	1:47.144	+1.41%	7	Soft
24	Tetsuta Nagashima	01:46.830	+1.745	9	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:46.959	+1.24%	5	Soft
25	Takuya Tsuda	01:47.545	+2.460	11	304.2	Hard / Soft	1:48.054	+2.27%	9	Soft

Race · 25.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	42:29.174	25	24	Hard / Hard	1:45.779	—	22	Hard
2	Brad Binder	+3.409	20	24	Hard / Hard	1:46.004	+0.21%	19	Hard
3	Jorge Martin	+4.136	16	24	Hard / Medium	1:46.106	+0.31%	19	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	+7.784	13	24	Hard / Soft	1:46.161	+0.36%	21	Soft
5	Miguel Oliveira	+8.185	11	24	Hard / Hard	1:46.146	+0.35%	22	Hard
6	Luca Marini	+8.348	10	24	Hard / Hard	1:46.168	+0.37%	22	Hard
7	Maverick Viñales	+9.879	9	24	Hard / Medium	1:46.238	+0.43%	20	Medium
8	Fabio Quartararo	+10.193	8	24	Hard / Medium	1:46.278	+0.47%	20	Medium
9	Enea Bastianini	+10.318	7	24	Hard / Soft	1:46.194	+0.39%	21	Soft
10	Marco Bezzecchi	+16.419	6	24	Hard / Hard	1:46.407	+0.59%	21	Hard
11	Johann Zarco	+16.586	5	24	Hard / Medium	1:46.408	+0.60%	18	Medium
12	Pol Espargaro	+17.456	4	24	Hard / Soft	1:46.516	+0.70%	19	Soft
13	Alex Marquez	+18.219	3	24	Hard / Soft	1:46.561	+0.74%	19	Soft
14	Franco Morbidelli	+19.012	2	24	Hard / Medium	1:46.566	+0.74%	22	Medium
15	Cal Crutchlow	+19.201	1	24	Hard / Medium	1:46.578	+0.76%	22	Medium
16	Aleix Espargaro	+25.473	0	24	Hard / Soft	1:46.645	+0.82%	21	Soft
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+27.006	0	24	Hard / Soft	1:46.798	+0.96%	22	Soft
18	Raul Fernandez	+29.374	0	24	Hard / Hard	1:46.906	+1.07%	21	Hard
19	Remy Gardner	+29.469	0	24	Hard / Hard	1:46.932	+1.09%	22	Hard
20	Takaaki Nakagami	+43.294	0	24	Hard / Medium	1:47.443	+1.57%	19	Medium
Retired	Alex Rins		0	14	Hard / Hard	1:47.200	+1.34%	9	Hard
Retired	Darryn Binder		0	14	Hard / Medium	1:46.847	+1.01%	9	Medium
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	23	Hard / Hard	1:46.265	+0.46%	19	Hard
Retired	Takuya Tsuda		0	11	Hard / Medium	1:48.444	+2.52%	9	Medium
Retired	Tetsuta Nagashima		0	9	Hard / Medium	1:47.241	+1.38%	4	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Johann Zarco	57%	1 ✓
2	Takaaki Nakagami	42%	15
3	Alex Rins	32%	8
4	Enea Bastianini	21%	5
5	Jorge Martin	18%	2 ✓
6	Franco Morbidelli	9%	4
7	Cal Crutchlow	8%	13
8	Darryn Binder	4%	14
9	Marco Bezzecchi	2%	3
10	Alex Marquez	3%	7
11	Raul Fernandez	4%	12
12	Tetsuta Nagashima	1%	9
13	Remy Gardner	1%	10
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	0%	6
15	Takuya Tsuda	0%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jack Miller	35%	64%	90%	7
2	Francesco Bagnaia	25%	52%	83%	12
3	Fabio Quartararo	15%	49%	79%	9
4	Aleix Espargaro	4%	32%	68%	6
5	Luca Marini	4%	27%	53%	10
6	Marc Marquez	6%	23%	56%	1
7	Pol Espargaro	1%	11%	39%	11
8	Brad Binder	2%	12%	36%	3
9	Miguel Oliveira	2%	8%	27%	8
10	Maverick Viñales	2%	8%	25%	4
11	Johann Zarco	3%	11%	29%	2
12	Jorge Martin	1%	4%	18%	5

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	28%	58%	73%	83%	15%	4
Johann Zarco	2	20%	50%	67%	80%	18%	11
Brad Binder	3	16%	47%	67%	84%	14%	2
Maverick Viñales	4	12%	39%	61%	84%	11%	7
Jorge Martin	5	7%	26%	45%	69%	26%	3
Aleix Espargaro	6	5%	21%	40%	70%	24%	16
Jack Miller	7	4%	16%	34%	67%	24%	1
Miguel Oliveira	8	3%	14%	30%	68%	18%	5
Fabio Quartararo	9	2%	9%	22%	67%	14%	8
Luca Marini	10	1%	7%	21%	71%	3%	6
Pol Espargaro	11	1%	4%	13%	52%	20%	12
Francesco Bagnaia	12	1%	3%	8%	39%	28%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	13	0%	2%	7%	38%	20%	10
Franco Morbidelli	14	0%	2%	5%	32%	18%	14
Enea Bastianini	15	0%	1%	3%	25%	21%	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	16	0%	1%	3%	22%	20%	17
Alex Marquez	17	0%	0%	1%	14%	23%	13
Alex Rins	18	0%	0%	1%	10%	21%	—
Tetsuta Nagashima	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	19%	—
Remy Gardner	20	0%	0%	1%	6%	10%	19
Takuya Tsuda	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	16%	—
Raul Fernandez	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	17%	18
Cal Crutchlow	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	27%	15
Darryn Binder	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	25%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	25	0%	0%	0%	1%	16%	20

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,812 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marc Marquez +0.28%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Luca Marini +0.32%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.21%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Brad Binder +0.65%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.43%
S4	Pedro Acosta	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Brad Binder +0.23%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.14%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Augusto Fernandez +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.10%	Jorge Martin +0.15%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Miguel Oliveira +0.38%
S2	Jack Miller	Aleix Espargaro +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.28%	Marc Marquez +0.35%
S4	Jack Miller	Francesco Bagnaia +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.33%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.24%
S4	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.61%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Dovizioso +0.21%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Cal Crutchlow +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.50%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.37%	Cal Crutchlow +0.40%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Cal Crutchlow +0.25%

Fastest per sector: 2022

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

24/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	211	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	201	−10
3	Aleix Espargaro	194	−17
4	Enea Bastianini	163	−48
5	Jack Miller	134	−77
6	Johann Zarco	133	−78

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2019 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

24/24

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.870 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P11 to P7.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Cal Crutchlow (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2019 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:46.386	—	+0.210	Medium	22
Maverick Viñales	1:46.417	+0.031	+0.292	Soft	22
Andrea Dovizioso	1:46.454	+0.068	+0.226	Medium	22
Fabio Quartararo	1:46.507	+0.121	+0.275	Soft	22
Franco Morbidelli	1:46.704	+0.318	+0.512	Soft	21
Alex Rins	1:46.705	+0.319	+0.217	Medium	22
Cal Crutchlow	1:46.768	+0.382	+0.729	Medium	22
Valentino Rossi	1:46.768	+0.382	+0.508	Medium	18
Joan Mir	1:46.827	+0.441	+0.562	Medium	22
Danilo Petrucci	1:46.940	+0.554	+0.574	Medium	22

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Jack MillerDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 18% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	6/23	26%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	5/25	20%
2019	2/22	9%
2018	4/25	16%

Tyres at the last edition

2019 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	55%	+0.47%	−0.017	1	2	10.6
Soft	46%	+1.02%	+0.007	0	1	10.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.