Round 17 of 20 Aftermath

Thailand Grand Prix 2022

4.554 m · 26 laps · since 2018

30.09 – 02.10.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	41:44.503	25
2	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+0.730	20
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+1.968	16
4	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+2.490	13
5	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+2.958	11
6	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+13.257	10
7	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+14.566	9
8	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+14.861	8
9	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+15.365	7
10	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+18.097	6
11	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+19.041	5
12	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+19.659	4
13	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+22.439	3
14	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+23.646	2
15	Raul Fernandez	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+30.483	1
16	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+33.466	0
17	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+34.072	0
18	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+36.203	0
19	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+36.532	0
20	Danilo Petrucci	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+42.508	0
21	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+49.992	0
22	Tetsuta Nagashima	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+51.346	0
23	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+0.000	0
DNF	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marco Bezzecchi · 26%	Miguel Oliveira · 1% · from P11	0.48 / 0.48	4.6 / 4.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

12/25

Laps led by the winner

Miguel Oliveira

0.730 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Marquez, from P20 to P8.

Longest battle: Jack Miller vs Miguel Oliveira (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marco Bezzecchi (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Marquez	20	14	+6
Jack Miller	7	3	+4
Darryn Binder	23	19	+4
Fabio Quartararo	4	17	−13
Alex Rins	10	16	−6
Cal Crutchlow	15	21	−6

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Wet-Medium	96%	+0.67%	−0.019	1	3	11.6
Wet-Soft	4%	+1.72%	−0.060	0	0	22.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

26.1 °C

Air

max 26.9 °C

86%

Humidity

0.8 mm

Rain

7 km/h

Wind

gusts 20 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Marc Marquez	57%	1 ✓
2	Miguel Oliveira	41%	2 ✓
3	Franco Morbidelli	32%	4
4	Aleix Espargaro	21%	3
5	Cal Crutchlow	18%	5
6	Remy Gardner	9%	8
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	8%	11
8	Maverick Viñales	4%	7
9	Pol Espargaro	2%	9
10	Alex Marquez	3%	10
11	Darryn Binder	4%	13
12	Raul Fernandez	1%	6
13	Tetsuta Nagashima	1%	12
14	Danilo Petrucci	0%	14

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jorge Martin	35%	64%	89%	2
2	Jack Miller	25%	52%	82%	7
3	Johann Zarco	14%	49%	78%	5
4	Francesco Bagnaia	4%	32%	68%	3
5	Fabio Quartararo	4%	27%	52%	4
6	Brad Binder	7%	23%	56%	12
7	Alex Rins	1%	11%	39%	10
8	Enea Bastianini	2%	12%	37%	6
9	Marco Bezzecchi	2%	8%	26%	1
10	Luca Marini	2%	8%	25%	9
11	Marc Marquez	3%	12%	29%	8
12	Miguel Oliveira	1%	4%	19%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	26%	55%	70%	79%	19%	16
Jorge Martin	2	18%	45%	61%	72%	25%	9
Francesco Bagnaia	3	13%	38%	53%	69%	29%	3
Fabio Quartararo	4	13%	39%	61%	81%	14%	17
Johann Zarco	5	9%	29%	49%	76%	18%	4
Enea Bastianini	6	6%	24%	43%	72%	20%	6
Jack Miller	7	4%	18%	34%	67%	24%	2
Marc Marquez	8	3%	15%	33%	72%	15%	5
Luca Marini	9	3%	12%	29%	78%	3%	23
Alex Rins	10	2%	8%	18%	57%	22%	12
Miguel Oliveira	11	1%	6%	15%	54%	17%	1
Brad Binder	12	1%	4%	11%	50%	13%	10
Aleix Espargaro	13	1%	3%	7%	37%	24%	11
Franco Morbidelli	14	0%	2%	6%	33%	18%	13
Cal Crutchlow	15	0%	1%	4%	25%	27%	19
Raul Fernandez	16	0%	1%	3%	23%	16%	15
Maverick Viñales	17	0%	1%	2%	18%	11%	7
Remy Gardner	18	0%	1%	1%	13%	10%	—
Pol Espargaro	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	20%	14
Alex Marquez	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	23%	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	19%	18
Tetsuta Nagashima	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	31%	22
Darryn Binder	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	28%	21
Danilo Petrucci	24	0%	0%	0%	2%	20%	20

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

The layout

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,567 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

19/100

Position index

71%

Pole wins

67%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 60% of the time (between 31% and 83%; 10 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	219	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	201	−18
3	Aleix Espargaro	194	−25
4	Enea Bastianini	170	−49
5	Jack Miller	159	−60
6	Brad Binder	148	−71

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2019 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

1/26

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.171 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P10 to P5.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Marc Marquez (26 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2019 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.191	—	+0.275	Soft	24
Marc Marquez	1:31.226	+0.035	+0.210	Soft	24
Maverick Viñales	1:31.239	+0.048	+0.292	Soft	23
Alex Rins	1:31.612	+0.421	+0.217	Soft	24
Andrea Dovizioso	1:31.656	+0.465	+0.226	Soft	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.768	+0.577	+0.512	Soft	23
Valentino Rossi	1:31.912	+0.721	+0.508	Soft	24
Joan Mir	1:31.925	+0.734	+0.562	Soft	23
Danilo Petrucci	1:31.974	+0.783	+0.574	Soft	23
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.172	+0.981	+0.209	Soft	15

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Miguel OliveiraKTM
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 12% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/22	14%
2025	2/22	9%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	3/21	14%
2022	1/24	4%
2019	2/22	9%

Tyres at the last edition

2019 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+1.20%	−0.004	1	3	10.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.