Round 11 of 18 Aftermath

Austrian Grand Prix 2021

4.348 m · 28 laps · since 1996

13.08 – 15.08.2021

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	40:43.928	25
2	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+12.991	20
3	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+14.570	16
4	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+15.623	13
5	Luca Marini	Ducati	SKY VR46 Avintia	+17.831	11
6	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+17.952	10
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+19.650	9
8	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+20.150	8
9	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+20.692	7
10	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+21.270	6
11	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+28.144	5
12	Danilo Petrucci	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+28.193	4
13	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+28.603	3
14	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+33.642	2
15	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+38.459	1
16	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+43.384	0
17	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+55.950	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Avintia Esponsorama	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 30%	Brad Binder · 1% · from P10	0.36 / 0.36	4.3 / 4.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:24.689	—	+0.275	Medium	23
Marc Marquez	1:24.736	+0.047	+0.210	Soft	24
Jorge Martin	1:24.794	+0.105	+0.457	Medium	20
Francesco Bagnaia	1:24.812	+0.123	+0.221	Medium	24
Joan Mir	1:24.853	+0.164	+0.562	Medium	23
Johann Zarco	1:24.897	+0.208	+0.344	Medium	15
Brad Binder	1:24.929	+0.240	+0.327	Medium	19
Miguel Oliveira	1:24.977	+0.288	+0.193	Medium	19
Aleix Espargaro	1:24.996	+0.307	+0.209	Medium	22
Alex Rins	1:25.060	+0.371	+0.217	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:25.084	+0.395	+0.105	Medium	22
Takaaki Nakagami	1:25.174	+0.485	+0.359	Medium	21
Valentino Rossi	1:25.196	+0.507	+0.508	Medium	21
Luca Marini	1:25.257	+0.568	+0.308	Medium	22
Iker Lecuona	1:25.270	+0.581	+0.094	Medium	21
Enea Bastianini	1:25.400	+0.711	+0.319	Medium	4
Pol Espargaro	1:25.444	+0.755	+0.406	Medium	20
Alex Marquez	1:25.653	+0.964	+0.356	Medium	23
Danilo Petrucci	1:25.674	+0.985	+0.574	Medium	22
Cal Crutchlow	1:26.091	+1.402	+0.729	Medium	23

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

183

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

4/28

Laps led by the winner

Brad Binder

12.991 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Luca Marini, from P17 to P5.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Marc Marquez (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:00:50		Red flag	White flag displayed
Race	14:01:29		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:09:16	Enea Bastianini	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:25:45	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:28:10	Johann Zarco	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:31:56	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:38:16	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:45:22	Brad Binder	Time penalty	3 seconds penalty - track limits

Race: 6 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Iker Lecuona	16	11	+5
Enea Bastianini	15	12	+3
Francesco Bagnaia	3	1	+2
Pol Espargaro	11	15	−4
Fabio Quartararo	2	5	−3
Alex Rins	13	16	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Luca Marini	17→5	+8.1
Brad Binder	10→1	+7.6
Iker Lecuona	16→6	+6.5
Jack Miller	6→11	−5.0
Pol Espargaro	11→16	−6.7
Marc Marquez	5→15	−9.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	95%	+0.47%	+0.098	1	3	8.6
Soft	5%	+0.06%	+0.421	0	0	15.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

24.1 °C

Air

max 25.6 °C

76%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

3 km/h

Wind

gusts 17 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 13.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:22.827	—	22	316.7	— / —	—			—
2	Joan Mir	01:23.625	+0.798	20	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:24.374	+0.23%	4	Medium
3	Alex Rins	01:23.730	+0.903	22	308.5	Soft / Medium	1:24.658	+0.56%	12	Medium
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:23.790	+0.963	21	313.9	— / —	—			—
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:23.841	+1.014	16	313.9	Hard / Medium	—			—
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:23.865	+1.038	21	307.6	Soft / Medium	1:24.348	+0.19%	12	Medium
7	Alex Marquez	01:23.881	+1.054	20	315.7	Soft / Medium	1:24.185	—	5	Medium
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:23.903	+1.076	23	316.7	— / —	—			—
9	Marc Marquez	01:23.967	+1.140	22	313.0	Medium / Medium	1:24.815	+0.75%	7	Medium
10	Jorge Martin	01:24.044	+1.217	21	313.9	Medium / Medium	1:24.762	+0.69%	5	Medium
11	Pol Espargaro	01:24.097	+1.270	22	317.6	— / —	—			—
12	Enea Bastianini	01:24.237	+1.410	22	314.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Luca Marini	01:24.330	+1.503	23	313.0	Medium / Medium	1:24.944	+0.90%	15	Medium
14	Valentino Rossi	01:24.335	+1.508	23	308.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:24.347	+1.520	22	309.4	— / —	—			—
16	Brad Binder	01:24.492	+1.665	24	315.7	Medium / Medium	1:24.878	+0.82%	12	Medium
17	Jack Miller	01:24.528	+1.701	22	316.7	Medium / missing	1:24.916	+0.87%	12	missing
18	Danilo Petrucci	01:24.755	+1.928	21	306.8	— / —	—			—
19	Iker Lecuona	01:24.792	+1.965	21	307.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Cal Crutchlow	01:25.295	+2.468	21	305.0	Soft / Medium	1:25.907	+2.05%	13	Medium

FP2 · 13.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Iker Lecuona	01:27.520	—	24	304.2	Medium / Soft	1:33.938	+0.60%	16	Wet-Soft
2	Johann Zarco	01:30.917	+3.397	20	308.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:34.440	+1.14%	10	Wet-Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.237	+3.717	14	302.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:34.593	+1.31%	9	Wet-Soft
4	Marc Marquez	01:31.353	+3.833	17	302.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:34.064	+0.74%	8	Wet-Medium
5	Jack Miller	01:31.812	+4.292	17	305.9	Medium / missing	1:33.374	—	10	Wet-Medium
6	Alex Marquez	01:31.961	+4.441	17	302.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:35.932	+2.74%	9	Wet-Soft
7	Alex Rins	01:32.190	+4.670	19	305.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:35.051	+1.80%	5	Wet-Soft
8	Pol Espargaro	01:32.404	+4.884	12	306.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:33.522	+0.16%	8	Wet-Medium
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.784	+5.264	20	295.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:35.554	+2.34%	13	Wet-Soft
10	Brad Binder	01:33.319	+5.799	22	304.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:35.196	+1.95%	11	Wet-Soft
11	Jorge Martin	01:33.408	+5.888	19	300.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.536	+6.016	16	300.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:36.393	+3.23%	5	Wet-Soft
—	Cal Crutchlow	01:34.701	+7.181	16	295.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:35.055	+1.80%	5	Wet-Medium
—	Danilo Petrucci	01:35.622	+8.102	10	292.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:36.077	+2.90%	6	Wet-Soft
—	Enea Bastianini	01:34.754	+7.234	12	297.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
—	Francesco Bagnaia	01:33.647	+6.127	13	304.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:34.697	+1.42%	6	Wet-Soft
—	Joan Mir	01:35.307	+7.787	16	296.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
—	Luca Marini	01:34.497	+6.977	12	291.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:35.564	+2.35%	6	Wet-Soft
—	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.951	+6.431	11	297.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:34.396	+1.10%	6	Wet-Soft
—	Valentino Rossi	01:34.697	+7.177	17	291.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:37.533	+4.45%	7	Wet-Soft

FP3 · 14.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:22.874	—	21	318.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:22.968	+0.094	21	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:23.670	—	7	Medium
3	Johann Zarco	01:23.012	+0.138	23	316.7	Medium / Soft	1:24.356	+0.82%	15	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:23.132	+0.258	22	315.7	Medium / Soft	1:24.389	+0.86%	6	Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:23.138	+0.264	19	312.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Jack Miller	01:23.245	+0.371	23	316.7	Soft / missing	—			—
7	Joan Mir	01:23.320	+0.446	24	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:23.867	+0.24%	5	Medium
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:23.362	+0.488	22	311.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Brad Binder	01:23.453	+0.579	20	316.7	Hard / Soft	1:24.223	+0.66%	5	Soft
10	Pol Espargaro	01:23.481	+0.607	21	316.7	Medium / Soft	1:24.474	+0.96%	5	Medium
11	Alex Rins	01:23.482	+0.608	23	311.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Luca Marini	01:23.527	+0.653	22	312.1	Medium / Soft	1:24.679	+1.21%	5	Medium
13	Jorge Martin	01:23.558	+0.684	19	314.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:23.677	+0.803	22	313.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Valentino Rossi	01:23.687	+0.813	21	309.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Alex Marquez	01:23.695	+0.821	23	312.1	Medium / Soft	1:25.077	+1.68%	5	Medium
17	Iker Lecuona	01:23.706	+0.832	22	308.5	Hard / Soft	1:24.792	+1.34%	5	Medium
18	Enea Bastianini	01:24.033	+1.159	19	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:24.551	+1.05%	5	Soft
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:24.074	+1.200	20	309.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Cal Crutchlow	01:24.193	+1.319	22	305.0	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 14.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:24.037	—	13	313.0	Hard / Medium	1:24.309	—	10	Medium
2	Enea Bastianini	01:24.157	+0.120	15	314.8	Hard / Medium	1:24.310	+0.00%	7	Medium
3	Joan Mir	01:24.165	+0.128	17	308.5	Hard / Medium	1:24.523	+0.25%	7	Medium
4	Alex Rins	01:24.202	+0.165	15	310.3	Hard / Medium	1:25.090	+0.93%	5	Medium
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:24.218	+0.181	15	305.9	Hard / Medium	1:24.316	+0.01%	8	Medium
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:24.302	+0.265	17	311.2	Hard / Medium	1:24.478	+0.20%	11	Medium
7	Marc Marquez	01:24.322	+0.285	16	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:24.911	+0.71%	4	Soft
8	Pol Espargaro	01:24.355	+0.318	15	314.8	Hard / Medium	1:24.521	+0.25%	5	Medium
9	Jorge Martin	01:24.368	+0.331	10	315.7	Medium / Medium	1:24.692	+0.45%	5	Medium
10	Jack Miller	01:24.417	+0.380	17	315.7	Hard / missing	1:24.842	+0.63%	12	missing
11	Alex Marquez	01:24.442	+0.405	16	313.9	Hard / Medium	—			—
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:24.452	+0.415	18	311.2	Hard / Medium	1:25.464	+1.37%	8	Medium
13	Brad Binder	01:24.485	+0.448	18	312.1	Hard / Medium	1:24.887	+0.69%	10	Medium
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:24.584	+0.547	18	311.2	Hard / Medium	1:24.775	+0.55%	10	Medium
15	Francesco Bagnaia	01:24.642	+0.605	18	316.7	Medium / Medium	1:25.006	+0.83%	10	Medium
16	Valentino Rossi	01:24.649	+0.612	17	305.9	Hard / Medium	1:24.908	+0.71%	11	Medium
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:24.693	+0.656	17	308.5	Hard / Medium	—			—
18	Luca Marini	01:24.749	+0.712	15	311.2	Hard / Medium	1:25.138	+0.98%	6	Medium
19	Cal Crutchlow	01:24.819	+0.782	15	303.3	Hard / Medium	1:24.868	+0.66%	5	Medium
20	Iker Lecuona	01:25.146	+1.109	14	305.0	Hard / Medium	1:25.174	+1.03%	5	Medium

Q1 · 14.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:23.197	—	8	313.0	Medium / Soft
2	Miguel Oliveira	01:23.365	+0.168	9	310.3	Hard / Soft
3	Alex Rins	01:23.470	+0.273	9	308.5	Medium / Soft
4	Alex Marquez	01:23.535	+0.338	9	311.2	Medium / Soft
5	Enea Bastianini	01:23.790	+0.593	9	313.0	Hard / Soft
6	Iker Lecuona	01:23.825	+0.628	8	305.9	Hard / Soft
7	Luca Marini	01:23.834	+0.637	7	310.3	Medium / Soft
8	Valentino Rossi	01:23.939	+0.742	7	305.9	Medium / Soft
9	Danilo Petrucci	01:24.405	+1.208	8	307.6	Hard / Soft
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:24.509	+1.312	8	304.2	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 14.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:22.643	—	7	314.8	Medium / Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:22.677	+0.034	8	309.4	Hard / Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:23.063	+0.420	9	314.8	Medium / Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:23.120	+0.477	7	313.0	Medium / Soft
5	Marc Marquez	01:23.227	+0.584	7	313.0	Medium / Soft
6	Jack Miller	01:23.320	+0.677	8	313.9	Medium / Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:23.378	+0.735	10	308.5	Medium / Soft
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:23.423	+0.780	7	312.1	Hard / Soft
9	Miguel Oliveira	01:23.499	+0.856	8	310.3	Hard / Soft
10	Brad Binder	01:23.568	+0.925	8	313.9	Hard / Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	01:23.738	+1.095	7	316.7	Hard / Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:23.990	+1.347	7	309.4	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 15.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:23.629	—	14	306.8	— / —	—			—
2	Johann Zarco	01:24.011	+0.382	9	315.7	— / —	—			—
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:24.016	+0.387	14	317.6	Hard / Medium	1:24.203	—	10	Medium
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:24.141	+0.512	14	313.0	Hard / Medium	1:24.806	+0.72%	9	Medium
5	Jorge Martin	01:24.204	+0.575	14	315.7	Medium / Medium	1:25.163	+1.14%	7	Medium
6	Brad Binder	01:24.356	+0.727	12	311.2	— / —	—			—
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:24.458	+0.829	14	310.3	— / —	—			—
8	Jack Miller	01:24.507	+0.878	14	316.7	Medium / Medium	1:24.991	+0.94%	11	Medium
9	Pol Espargaro	01:24.514	+0.885	14	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:24.999	+0.95%	8	Soft
10	Marc Marquez	01:24.539	+0.910	14	314.8	Medium / Soft	1:24.642	+0.52%	10	Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:24.571	+0.942	14	309.4	— / —	—			—
12	Joan Mir	01:24.599	+0.970	14	307.6	— / —	—			—
13	Alex Marquez	01:24.633	+1.004	14	309.4	Medium / Soft	1:24.977	+0.92%	9	Soft
14	Luca Marini	01:24.647	+1.018	13	312.1	Medium / Medium	1:25.380	+1.40%	8	Medium
15	Enea Bastianini	01:24.674	+1.045	12	317.6	Medium / Soft	1:24.700	+0.59%	5	Soft
16	Iker Lecuona	01:24.703	+1.074	14	307.6	— / —	—			—
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:24.793	+1.164	14	315.7	— / —	—			—
18	Valentino Rossi	01:24.934	+1.305	14	309.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:25.001	+1.372	14	308.5	Medium / Medium	1:25.202	+1.19%	10	Medium
20	Cal Crutchlow	01:25.051	+1.422	12	300.8	Medium / Medium	1:29.844	+6.70%	5	Medium

Race · 15.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Brad Binder	40:43.928	25	28	Hard / Medium	1:24.929	+0.28%	19	Medium
2	Francesco Bagnaia	+12.991	20	28	Hard / Medium	1:24.812	+0.15%	24	Medium
3	Jorge Martin	+14.570	16	28	Hard / Medium	1:24.794	+0.12%	20	Medium
4	Joan Mir	+15.623	13	28	Medium / Medium	1:24.853	+0.19%	23	Medium
5	Luca Marini	+17.831	11	28	Hard / Medium	1:25.257	+0.67%	22	Medium
6	Iker Lecuona	+17.952	10	28	Hard / Medium	1:25.270	+0.69%	21	Medium
7	Fabio Quartararo	+19.650	9	28	Hard / Medium	1:24.689	—	23	Medium
8	Valentino Rossi	+20.150	8	28	Hard / Medium	1:25.196	+0.60%	21	Medium
9	Alex Marquez	+20.692	7	28	Medium / Medium	1:25.653	+1.14%	23	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	+21.270	6	28	Hard / Medium	1:24.996	+0.36%	22	Medium
11	Jack Miller	+28.144	5	28	Hard / Medium	1:25.084	+0.47%	22	Medium
12	Danilo Petrucci	+28.193	4	28	Hard / Medium	1:25.674	+1.16%	22	Medium
13	Takaaki Nakagami	+28.603	3	28	Hard / Medium	1:25.174	+0.57%	21	Medium
14	Alex Rins	+33.642	2	28	Medium / Medium	1:25.060	+0.44%	22	Medium
15	Marc Marquez	+38.459	1	28	Hard / Soft	1:24.736	+0.06%	24	Soft
16	Pol Espargaro	+43.384	0	28	Hard / Medium	1:25.444	+0.89%	20	Medium
17	Cal Crutchlow	+55.950	0	28	Hard / Medium	1:26.091	+1.66%	23	Medium
Retired	Enea Bastianini		0	6	Hard / Medium	1:25.400	+0.84%	4	Medium
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	18	Hard / Medium	1:24.897	+0.25%	15	Medium
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	22	Hard / Medium	1:24.977	+0.34%	19	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Joan Mir	1:23.813*	—	+0.562	Medium	4
Johann Zarco	1:23.963	+0.150	+0.344	Medium	7
Jorge Martin	1:24.111	+0.298	+0.457	Medium	7
Marc Marquez	1:24.227*	+0.414	+0.210	Medium	4
Pol Espargaro	1:24.331*	+0.518	+0.406	Medium	3
Alex Rins	1:24.362*	+0.549	+0.217	Medium	4
Luca Marini	1:24.647	+0.834	+0.308	Medium	7
Francesco Bagnaia	1:24.649*	+0.836	+0.221	Medium	4
Jack Miller	1:24.757	+0.944	+0.105	Medium	11
Alex Marquez	1:24.842	+1.029	+0.356	Medium	10
Valentino Rossi	1:24.919	+1.106	+0.508	Medium	7
Danilo Petrucci	1:25.176	+1.363	+0.574	Medium	9

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alex Rins	57%	3
2	Luca Marini	42%	7
3	Jorge Martin	33%	1 ✓
4	Miguel Oliveira	19%	2 ✓
5	Valentino Rossi	17%	8
6	Alex Marquez	9%	4
7	Iker Lecuona	9%	6
8	Enea Bastianini	4%	5
9	Danilo Petrucci	2%	9
10	Cal Crutchlow	3%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Francesco Bagnaia	36%	67%	92%	3
2	Fabio Quartararo	27%	53%	85%	2
3	Johann Zarco	16%	48%	79%	4
4	Marc Marquez	3%	31%	67%	5
5	Aleix Espargaro	3%	27%	53%	8
6	Jack Miller	6%	21%	55%	6
7	Joan Mir	1%	12%	43%	7
8	Takaaki Nakagami	2%	12%	37%	12
9	Brad Binder	1%	7%	27%	10
10	Pol Espargaro	2%	7%	21%	11
11	Jorge Martin	2%	11%	27%	1
12	Miguel Oliveira	0%	3%	17%	9

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	30%	57%	71%	80%	18%	3
Fabio Quartararo	2	21%	52%	69%	81%	15%	7
Francesco Bagnaia	3	13%	38%	53%	67%	32%	2
Johann Zarco	4	12%	40%	60%	81%	16%	—
Marc Marquez	5	8%	31%	54%	80%	15%	15
Jack Miller	6	5%	21%	41%	69%	26%	11
Joan Mir	7	4%	18%	38%	73%	17%	4
Aleix Espargaro	8	3%	13%	28%	62%	26%	10
Miguel Oliveira	9	2%	10%	23%	68%	16%	—
Brad Binder	10	1%	6%	18%	61%	21%	1
Pol Espargaro	11	1%	4%	14%	56%	20%	16
Takaaki Nakagami	12	0%	3%	11%	54%	14%	13
Alex Rins	13	0%	2%	7%	40%	21%	14
Alex Marquez	14	0%	1%	5%	33%	24%	9
Enea Bastianini	15	0%	1%	3%	29%	20%	—
Iker Lecuona	16	0%	1%	2%	20%	33%	6
Luca Marini	17	0%	0%	2%	19%	7%	5
Valentino Rossi	18	0%	0%	1%	14%	13%	8
Danilo Petrucci	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	20%	12
Cal Crutchlow	20	0%	0%	0%	7%	28%	17

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,347 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.38%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.34%	Pedro Acosta +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.46%
S3	Fermin Aldeguer +0.10%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%	Jorge Martin +0.37%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.49%	Pedro Acosta +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.31%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.36%	Pedro Acosta +0.37%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Jorge Martin +0.36%	Ai Ogura +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Pedro Acosta +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.38%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.45%
S3	Fermin Aldeguer +0.05%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.02%	Alex Marquez +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Marc Marquez +0.34%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.44%	Marc Marquez +0.46%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Pol Espargaro +0.29%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Brad Binder +0.31%
S2	Brad Binder +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.01%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.20%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.07%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S2	Jack Miller +0.13%	Enea Bastianini +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%
S3	Aleix Espargaro	Alex Rins +0.54%	Jack Miller +0.62%
S4	Luca Marini +0.09%	Brad Binder +0.21%	Johann Zarco +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.04%	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Miguel Oliveira +0.36%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Johann Zarco +0.31%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Joan Mir +0.19%	Iker Lecuona +0.19%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Enea Bastianini +0.27%	Miguel Oliveira +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.04%	Johann Zarco +0.32%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Pol Espargaro +0.44%	Maverick Viñales +0.57%
S3	Pol Espargaro +0.35%	Danilo Petrucci +0.39%	Alex Rins +0.54%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.23%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.43%
S2	Marc Marquez	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%
S3	Marc Marquez	Danilo Petrucci +0.21%	Alex Rins +0.23%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Quartararo +0.18%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.08%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.09%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.17%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.70%
S3	Danilo Petrucci	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.48%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.28%

Fastest per sector: 2021

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

62/100

Position index

11%

Pole wins

67%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 33% of the time (between 12% and 65%; 9 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	172	—
2	Johann Zarco	132	−40
3	Joan Mir	121	−51
4	Francesco Bagnaia	114	−58
5	Jack Miller	100	−72
6	Maverick Viñales	95	−77

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2020 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

11/20

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

1.377 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P17 to P4.

Longest battle: Takaaki Nakagami vs Valentino Rossi (12 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2020 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Rins	1:24.584	—	+0.217	Medium	8
Pol Espargaro	1:24.774	+0.190	+0.406	Soft	5
Miguel Oliveira	1:24.792	+0.208	+0.193	Medium	6
Andrea Dovizioso	1:24.846	+0.262	+0.226	Soft	18
Joan Mir	1:24.904	+0.320	+0.562	Medium	18
Brad Binder	1:25.025	+0.441	+0.327	Medium	17
Jack Miller	1:25.049	+0.465	+0.105	Soft	17
Takaaki Nakagami	1:25.071	+0.487	+0.359	Soft	17
Valentino Rossi	1:25.075	+0.491	+0.508	Medium	17
Fabio Quartararo	1:25.266	+0.682	+0.275	Medium	17

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Pedro AcostaKTM
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Brad BinderKTM
2020Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	1/22	5%
2025	2/20	10%
2024	2/24	8%
2023	3/23	13%
2022	5/25	20%
2021	3/20	15%

Tyres at the last edition

2020 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	55%	+1.12%	+0.025	1	2	10.0
Medium	45%	+0.58%	+0.013	0	1	7.6

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.