Round 2 of 15 Aftermath

Spanish Grand Prix 2020

4.428 m · 25 laps · since 1984

17.07 – 19.07.2020

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	41:23.796	25
2	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+4.603	20
3	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+5.946	16
4	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+6.668	13
5	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+6.844	11
6	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+6.938	10
7	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+13.027	9
8	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+13.441	8
9	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Ducati Team	+19.651	7
10	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+21.553	6
11	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+25.100	5
12	Alex Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+27.350	4
13	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+29.640	3
14	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+32.898	2
15	Bradley Smith	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+39.682	1
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 27% ✓	Fabio Quartararo · 27% · from P1	0.84 / 0.84	2.1 / 2.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:38.661	—	+0.210	Soft	17
Fabio Quartararo	1:38.880	+0.219	+0.275	Soft	23
Brad Binder	1:39.066	+0.405	+0.327	Soft	22
Jack Miller	1:39.172	+0.511	+0.105	Soft	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:39.199	+0.538	+0.512	Soft	23
Pol Espargaro	1:39.266	+0.605	+0.406	Soft	23
Andrea Dovizioso	1:39.291	+0.630	+0.226	Soft	23
Maverick Viñales	1:39.339	+0.678	+0.292	Soft	23
Valentino Rossi	1:39.422	+0.761	+0.508	Soft	16
Francesco Bagnaia	1:39.440	+0.779	+0.221	Soft	22
Miguel Oliveira	1:39.541	+0.880	+0.193	Soft	23
Iker Lecuona	1:39.627	+0.966	+0.094	Soft	17
Danilo Petrucci	1:39.743	+1.082	+0.574	Soft	23
Takaaki Nakagami	1:39.812	+1.151	+0.359	Soft	22
Johann Zarco	1:39.909	+1.248	+0.344	Soft	23
Alex Marquez	1:40.033	+1.372	+0.356	Soft	23
Tito Rabat	1:40.227	+1.566	+0.229	Soft	23
Bradley Smith	1:40.642	+1.981	+0.085	Soft	23

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

17/25

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Quartararo

4.603 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Miguel Oliveira, from P15 to P8.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Takaaki Nakagami (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:57		Jump start	jump start
Race	14:03:42	Joan Mir	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:05:14	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:32:58	Valentino Rossi	Retired	retired
Race	14:35:38	Marc Marquez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Maverick Viñales (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Bradley Smith	16	11	+5
Iker Lecuona	20	17	+3
Brad Binder	11	8	+3
Fabio Quartararo	1	4	−3
Tito Rabat	17	20	−3
Joan Mir	10	13	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Miguel Oliveira	15→8	+3.8
Andrea Dovizioso	7→3	+3.7
Johann Zarco	18→11	+2.8
Francesco Bagnaia	4→7	−2.2
Bradley Smith	16→15	−2.5
Brad Binder	11→13	−3.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.78%	+0.028	1	3	8.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

36.1 °C

Air

max 37.3 °C

29%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

8 km/h

Wind

gusts 27 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 17.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:37.350	—	21	291.8	Hard / Soft	1:38.333	+0.10%	11	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:37.374	+0.024	21	286.4	Soft / Soft	1:38.239	—	11	Medium
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:37.438	+0.088	19	290.3	Medium / Soft	1:39.702	+1.49%	11	Medium
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:37.471	+0.121	19	296.7	Hard / Soft	1:39.007	+0.78%	6	Medium
5	Joan Mir	01:37.481	+0.131	16	288.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Jack Miller	01:37.487	+0.137	17	292.6	Soft / Soft	1:38.967	+0.74%	5	Medium
7	Alex Rins	01:37.569	+0.219	20	291.8	Soft / Medium	1:38.697	+0.47%	5	Medium
8	Pol Espargaro	01:37.712	+0.362	18	291.8	Hard / Soft	1:38.801	+0.57%	4	Medium
9	Iker Lecuona	01:37.714	+0.364	17	288.0	Soft / Medium	1:39.324	+1.10%	5	Medium
10	Brad Binder	01:37.923	+0.573	18	288.7	Hard / Soft	1:38.996	+0.77%	5	Medium
11	Johann Zarco	01:37.940	+0.590	21	291.8	Soft / Soft	1:39.377	+1.16%	11	Medium
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.982	+0.632	21	287.2	Soft / Medium	1:38.357	+0.12%	5	Medium
13	Valentino Rossi	01:38.118	+0.768	20	284.9	Soft / Soft	1:39.090	+0.87%	12	Medium
14	Takaaki Nakagami	01:38.129	+0.779	19	288.0	Hard / Medium	1:39.355	+1.14%	5	Medium
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.209	+0.859	16	288.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
16	Alex Marquez	01:38.212	+0.862	19	288.7	Hard / Soft	1:39.942	+1.73%	5	Medium
17	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.245	+0.895	13	284.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.316	+0.966	18	291.8	Soft / Medium	1:39.022	+0.80%	5	Medium
19	Tito Rabat	01:38.337	+0.987	19	288.0	Soft / Medium	1:39.488	+1.27%	8	Medium
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.506	+1.156	19	289.5	Medium / Medium	1:39.100	+0.88%	5	Medium
21	Danilo Petrucci	01:38.507	+1.157	18	289.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Bradley Smith	01:38.730	+1.380	12	287.2	Hard / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 17.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.125	—	20	287.2	— / —	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.152	+0.027	19	284.9	Hard / Soft	1:38.639	—	5	Soft
3	Brad Binder	01:38.250	+0.125	19	288.0	Hard / Soft	1:39.802	+1.18%	4	Soft
4	Marc Marquez	01:38.369	+0.244	20	288.0	— / —	—			—
5	Pol Espargaro	01:38.372	+0.247	19	289.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:38.390	+0.265	19	288.7	Hard / Soft	1:40.962	+2.36%	5	Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	01:38.596	+0.471	21	284.9	Soft / Soft	1:40.757	+2.15%	7	Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:38.610	+0.485	18	289.5	— / —	—			—
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.614	+0.489	19	291.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.625	+0.500	18	289.5	Hard / Soft	1:38.794	+0.16%	5	Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:38.687	+0.562	19	286.4	Hard / Medium	1:40.054	+1.44%	4	Medium
12	Iker Lecuona	01:38.816	+0.691	18	284.2	— / —	—			—
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:38.836	+0.711	17	289.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Alex Rins	01:38.845	+0.720	21	289.5	Hard / Soft	1:39.128	+0.50%	11	Soft
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.904	+0.779	18	285.7	Hard / Soft	1:39.227	+0.60%	5	Soft
16	Joan Mir	01:38.933	+0.808	19	288.7	— / —	—			—
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.004	+0.879	19	284.9	Hard / Soft	1:39.280	+0.65%	5	Soft
18	Jack Miller	01:39.156	+1.031	16	290.3	Hard / Medium	1:39.929	+1.31%	5	Medium
19	Tito Rabat	01:39.181	+1.056	20	285.7	Soft / Medium	1:41.930	+3.34%	5	Medium
20	Valentino Rossi	01:39.222	+1.097	18	282.7	— / —	—			—
21	Alex Marquez	01:39.604	+1.479	19	285.7	Medium / Medium	1:40.578	+1.97%	10	Medium
22	Bradley Smith	01:39.703	+1.578	21	284.9	Medium / Medium	1:40.454	+1.84%	12	Medium

FP3 · 18.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:36.806	—	20	288.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
2	Jack Miller	01:36.858	+0.052	18	294.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Joan Mir	01:36.908	+0.102	14	290.3	Soft / Soft	1:38.554	+0.36%	5	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:37.029	+0.223	21	291.8	Hard / Soft	1:38.197	—	12	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:37.046	+0.240	19	290.3	Soft / Soft	1:38.348	+0.15%	5	Medium
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:37.099	+0.293	19	291.1	Hard / Soft	1:38.760	+0.57%	5	Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.112	+0.306	20	286.4	Hard / Soft	1:38.446	+0.25%	5	Soft
8	Valentino Rossi	01:37.130	+0.324	21	285.7	Soft / Soft	1:38.539	+0.35%	5	Medium
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.171	+0.365	16	292.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:37.185	+0.379	19	295.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
11	Pol Espargaro	01:37.223	+0.417	17	291.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
12	Alex Rins	01:37.307	+0.501	19	290.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:37.363	+0.557	18	292.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Takaaki Nakagami	01:37.462	+0.656	19	288.7	Hard / Soft	1:38.758	+0.57%	6	Soft
15	Johann Zarco	01:37.629	+0.823	19	291.8	Hard / Soft	1:39.078	+0.90%	4	Medium
16	Brad Binder	01:37.655	+0.849	19	288.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:37.701	+0.895	16	290.3	Hard / Soft	1:38.237	+0.04%	5	Soft
18	Tito Rabat	01:37.749	+0.943	19	288.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
19	Alex Marquez	01:37.761	+0.955	20	292.6	Hard / Soft	1:39.220	+1.04%	5	Medium
20	Iker Lecuona	01:37.783	+0.977	17	287.2	Hard / Soft	1:39.043	+0.86%	5	Medium
21	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.071	+1.265	18	291.1	Hard / Soft	1:38.634	+0.45%	10	Soft
22	Bradley Smith	01:38.229	+1.423	17	289.5	Hard / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 18.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:37.837	—	16	291.8	Hard / Soft	1:38.236	—	12	Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:37.838	+0.001	14	284.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Joan Mir	01:38.020	+0.183	14	288.0	Hard / Soft	1:38.600	+0.37%	6	Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:38.189	+0.352	15	292.6	Hard / Soft	1:38.812	+0.59%	7	Medium
5	Alex Rins	01:38.212	+0.375	13	290.3	Soft / Soft	1:38.315	+0.08%	5	Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.247	+0.410	16	287.2	Hard / Soft	1:38.680	+0.45%	12	Soft
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.296	+0.459	13	292.6	Hard / Soft	1:38.674	+0.45%	5	Soft
8	Pol Espargaro	01:38.298	+0.461	12	291.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:38.299	+0.462	13	288.0	Hard / Soft	1:39.261	+1.04%	6	Soft
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.362	+0.525	16	283.4	Hard / Soft	1:38.558	+0.33%	11	Soft
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:38.364	+0.527	15	288.0	Hard / Soft	1:38.700	+0.47%	10	Soft
12	Johann Zarco	01:38.453	+0.616	11	291.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:38.454	+0.617	14	290.3	Hard / Soft	1:39.273	+1.06%	5	Soft
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.477	+0.640	13	291.1	Hard / Medium	1:38.643	+0.41%	4	Medium
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.529	+0.692	11	284.9	Hard / Soft	1:39.048	+0.83%	6	Soft
16	Bradley Smith	01:38.589	+0.752	16	288.0	Hard / Soft	1:39.234	+1.02%	11	Soft
17	Valentino Rossi	01:38.704	+0.867	16	282.7	Soft / Soft	1:38.853	+0.63%	9	Soft
18	Brad Binder	01:38.713	+0.876	12	287.2	Hard / Soft	1:39.281	+1.06%	6	Soft
19	Tito Rabat	01:38.792	+0.955	14	288.0	Hard / Soft	1:39.467	+1.25%	6	Soft
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.838	+1.001	11	287.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
21	Iker Lecuona	01:38.971	+1.134	11	284.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
22	Alex Marquez	01:38.996	+1.159	13	287.2	Hard / Soft	1:39.359	+1.14%	5	Soft

Q1 · 18.07 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Alex Rins	01:37.063	—	6	288.0	Soft / Soft
2	Pol Espargaro	01:37.258	+0.195	7	291.1	Hard / Soft
3	Brad Binder	01:37.396	+0.333	7	286.4	Hard / Soft
4	Danilo Petrucci	01:37.423	+0.360	7	288.0	Hard / Soft
5	Takaaki Nakagami	01:37.434	+0.371	8	287.2	Hard / Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:37.940	+0.877	7	285.7	Hard / Soft
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:37.964	+0.901	7	287.2	Hard / Soft
8	Bradley Smith	01:37.966	+0.903	6	288.0	Hard / Soft
9	Tito Rabat	01:38.029	+0.966	8	289.5	Hard / Soft
10	Johann Zarco	01:38.106	+1.043	7	291.1	Hard / Soft
11	Alex Marquez	01:38.256	+1.193	8	288.0	Hard / Soft
12	Iker Lecuona	01:38.512	+1.449	6	287.2	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 18.07 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:36.705	—	7	284.9	Hard / Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:36.844	+0.139	7	284.9	Soft / Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:36.862	+0.157	8	289.5	Hard / Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:36.955	+0.250	7	295.0	Hard / Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:37.453	+0.748	6	293.4	Soft / Soft
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:37.454	+0.749	8	290.3	Hard / Soft
7	Pol Espargaro	01:37.493	+0.788	6	288.7	Hard / Medium
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:37.535	+0.830	7	293.4	missing / missing
9	Alex Rins	01:37.636	+0.931	6	288.7	Soft / Soft
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.674	+0.969	8	284.9	Hard / Soft
11	Valentino Rossi	01:37.741	+1.036	8	284.9	Soft / Soft
12	Joan Mir	01:37.784	+1.079	8	287.2	Soft / Soft

Warm Up · 19.07 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:37.883	—	11	291.1	Hard / Soft	1:38.209	+0.15%	8	Soft
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.934	+0.051	12	285.7	Hard / Soft	1:38.058	—	5	Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:37.959	+0.076	12	284.9	Soft / Soft	1:38.256	+0.20%	9	Soft
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:38.087	+0.204	12	288.7	Soft / Soft	1:38.653	+0.61%	7	Soft
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:38.223	+0.340	12	291.8	Hard / Soft	1:38.653	+0.61%	5	Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	01:38.234	+0.351	12	288.7	missing / missing	1:38.651	+0.61%	10	missing
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.256	+0.373	12	284.9	Hard / Soft	1:38.396	+0.35%	10	Soft
8	Brad Binder	01:38.273	+0.390	12	288.7	Hard / Soft	1:38.406	+0.36%	8	Soft
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.316	+0.433	12	294.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Valentino Rossi	01:38.338	+0.455	12	284.9	Soft / Soft	1:38.703	+0.66%	8	Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:38.384	+0.501	12	286.4	Soft / Soft	1:38.702	+0.66%	7	Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.429	+0.546	12	287.2	Hard / Soft	1:39.074	+1.04%	10	Soft
13	Jack Miller	01:38.437	+0.554	12	293.4	Soft / Soft	1:38.996	+0.96%	10	Soft
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.458	+0.575	11	285.7	Hard / Soft	1:38.856	+0.81%	6	Soft
15	Iker Lecuona	01:38.602	+0.719	12	286.4	Hard / Soft	1:38.838	+0.80%	5	Soft
16	Bradley Smith	01:38.812	+0.929	12	285.7	Hard / Soft	1:38.869	+0.83%	5	Soft
17	Johann Zarco	01:38.854	+0.971	12	290.3	Hard / Soft	1:39.306	+1.27%	9	Soft
18	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.865	+0.982	11	290.3	Hard / Soft	1:39.193	+1.16%	7	Soft
19	Alex Marquez	01:39.064	+1.181	12	289.5	Hard / Soft	1:39.551	+1.52%	8	Soft
20	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.143	+1.260	7	289.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Tito Rabat	01:39.283	+1.400	10	288.0	Soft / Soft	—			—

Race · 19.07

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	41:23.796	25	25	Hard / Soft	1:38.880	+0.22%	23	Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	+4.603	20	25	Soft / Soft	1:39.339	+0.69%	23	Soft
3	Andrea Dovizioso	+5.946	16	25	Hard / Soft	1:39.291	+0.64%	23	Soft
4	Jack Miller	+6.668	13	25	Hard / Soft	1:39.172	+0.52%	23	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	+6.844	11	25	Hard / Soft	1:39.199	+0.55%	23	Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	+6.938	10	25	Hard / Soft	1:39.266	+0.61%	23	Soft
7	Francesco Bagnaia	+13.027	9	25	Hard / Soft	1:39.440	+0.79%	22	Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	+13.441	8	25	Hard / Soft	1:39.541	+0.89%	23	Soft
9	Danilo Petrucci	+19.651	7	25	Hard / Soft	1:39.743	+1.10%	23	Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	+21.553	6	25	Hard / Soft	1:39.812	+1.17%	22	Soft
11	Johann Zarco	+25.100	5	25	Hard / Soft	1:39.909	+1.27%	23	Soft
12	Alex Marquez	+27.350	4	25	Hard / Soft	1:40.033	+1.39%	23	Soft
13	Brad Binder	+29.640	3	25	Hard / Soft	1:39.066	+0.41%	22	Soft
14	Tito Rabat	+32.898	2	25	Hard / Soft	1:40.227	+1.59%	23	Soft
15	Bradley Smith	+39.682	1	25	Hard / Soft	1:40.642	+2.01%	23	Soft
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	2	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Iker Lecuona		0	19	Hard / Soft	1:39.627	+0.98%	17	Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		0	1	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	21	Hard / Soft	1:38.661	—	17	Soft
Retired	Valentino Rossi		0	18	Soft / Soft	1:39.422	+0.77%	16	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Joan Mir	1:38.290*	—	+0.562	Medium	3
Cal Crutchlow	1:38.424	+0.134	+0.729	Medium	5
Alex Marquez	1:40.135	+1.845	+0.356	Medium	5

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Pol Espargaro	58%	2 ✓
2	Alex Rins	43%	1 ✓
3	Danilo Petrucci	33%	4
4	Takaaki Nakagami	19%	5
5	Johann Zarco	18%	10
6	Brad Binder	8%	3
7	Aleix Espargaro	10%	6
8	Iker Lecuona	4%	12
9	Tito Rabat	2%	9
10	Alex Marquez	3%	11
11	Miguel Oliveira	3%	7
12	Bradley Smith	1%	8

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Quartararo	39%	71%	91%	1
2	Jack Miller	24%	52%	84%	5
3	Joan Mir	17%	49%	83%	12
4	Marc Marquez	4%	33%	70%	3
5	Maverick Viñales	3%	27%	54%	2
6	Cal Crutchlow	6%	22%	56%	6
7	Franco Morbidelli	1%	11%	44%	10
8	Valentino Rossi	2%	12%	37%	11
9	Francesco Bagnaia	1%	7%	27%	4
10	Andrea Dovizioso	2%	7%	21%	8
11	Pol Espargaro	1%	7%	22%	7
12	Alex Rins	0%	2%	14%	9

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Alex Rins	9	—	—	absent del Grid.pdf (pit lane / no surt)
Race	Cal Crutchlow	6	—	—	absent del Grid.pdf (pit lane / no surt)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	27%	55%	69%	78%	21%	1
Maverick Viñales	2	23%	56%	72%	85%	13%	2
Marc Marquez	3	16%	48%	66%	84%	13%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	4	10%	31%	49%	66%	30%	7
Jack Miller	5	7%	27%	48%	71%	25%	4
Pol Espargaro	6	5%	23%	43%	74%	20%	6
Andrea Dovizioso	7	4%	19%	40%	78%	13%	3
Franco Morbidelli	8	3%	12%	29%	68%	20%	5
Valentino Rossi	9	2%	9%	24%	72%	10%	—
Joan Mir	10	1%	6%	17%	59%	18%	—
Brad Binder	11	1%	5%	13%	52%	19%	13
Danilo Petrucci	12	1%	3%	9%	46%	20%	9
Takaaki Nakagami	13	0%	2%	7%	42%	13%	10
Aleix Espargaro	14	0%	1%	5%	31%	25%	—
Miguel Oliveira	15	0%	1%	4%	28%	10%	8
Bradley Smith	16	0%	1%	3%	23%	14%	15
Tito Rabat	17	0%	1%	2%	14%	19%	14
Johann Zarco	18	0%	0%	1%	11%	16%	11
Alex Marquez	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	19%	12
Iker Lecuona	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	31%	—
Cal Crutchlow	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	28%	—
Alex Rins	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	20%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,430 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%
S2	Fermin Aldeguer +0.39%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.47%	Cal Crutchlow +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.43%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Cal Crutchlow +0.39%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S3	Alex Marquez	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%
S4	Alex Marquez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%	Alex Marquez +0.53%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.01%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.21%	Franco Morbidelli +0.23%
S3	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.34%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S4	Alex Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.63%	Maverick Viñales +0.64%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.17%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Alex Marquez +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.49%
S4	Enea Bastianini	Maverick Viñales +0.07%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%	Jack Miller +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.46%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Brad Binder +0.40%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Jack Miller +0.19%	Aleix Espargaro +0.19%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Jack Miller +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Joan Mir +0.47%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.17%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.22%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Joan Mir +0.24%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.52%	Joan Mir +0.56%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.03%	Stefan Bradl +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.48%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.20%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.07%	Aleix Espargaro +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%
S2	Joan Mir +0.11%	Brad Binder +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.30%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Stefan Bradl +0.20%
S3	Marc Marquez	Danilo Petrucci +0.49%	Maverick Viñales +0.62%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.45%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.54%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.14%	Alex Rins +0.26%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.48%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.65%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.15%	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%

Fastest per sector: 2020

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

100/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

56%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 39%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	25	—
2	Maverick Viñales	20	−5
3	Andrea Dovizioso	16	−9
4	Jack Miller	13	−12
5	Franco Morbidelli	11	−14
6	Pol Espargaro	10	−15

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2019 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

25/25

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.654 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P9 to P2.

Longest battle: Bradley Smith vs Miguel Oliveira (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2019 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:38.346	—	+0.210	Hard	23
Alex Rins	1:38.380	+0.034	+0.217	Hard	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:38.382	+0.036	+0.275	Hard	11
Maverick Viñales	1:38.506	+0.160	+0.292	Hard	23
Andrea Dovizioso	1:38.550	+0.204	+0.226	Hard	23
Danilo Petrucci	1:38.552	+0.206	+0.574	Hard	23
Valentino Rossi	1:38.626	+0.280	+0.508	Hard	23
Joan Mir	1:38.720	+0.374	+0.562	Hard	18
Cal Crutchlow	1:38.725	+0.379	+0.729	Medium	23
Jack Miller	1:38.744	+0.398	+0.105	Hard	20

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Alex MarquezDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Jack MillerDucati
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/23	13%
2025	5/23	22%
2024	8/25	32%
2023	6/23	26%
2022	3/25	12%
2021	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2019 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	91%	+0.43%	−0.001	1	3	10.0
Medium	9%	+0.52%	+0.008	0	0	10.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.