Round 1 of 15
Aftermath
Qatar Grand Prix 2020
Lusail International Circuit Qatar
5.380 m · 21 laps · since 2004
Aftermath
What happened
The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.
Sprint result
Forecast vs reality
C14Lap-by-lap positions: race
Lap-by-lap positions: sprint
Race pace
The race in numbers
Incidents
The start
C23Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested
The tyre gamble
Race weather
C25
Race weekend
As it happens
Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.
The weekend, session by session
Long-run pace in practice
Who will make it to Q2
C21aPole and front row
C21Grid penalties
Sprint forecast
C13sWin and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.
Pending · no data yetRace forecast
C13Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.
Pending · no data yetWhat the sprint changed
C13bWho rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.
Pending · no data yetSprint pace
Preview
Before the race
What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.
Who rules each sector
C6Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,426 m per lap
Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.
© OpenStreetMap contributors
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Marc Marquez +0.41% | Fermin Aldeguer +0.42% | Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.50% |
| S2 | Franco Morbidelli +0.44% | Pedro Acosta +0.47% | Ai Ogura +0.47% |
| S3 | Marc Marquez +0.29% | Alex Marquez +0.41% | Alex Rins +0.51% |
| S4 | Francesco Bagnaia +0.33% | Marc Marquez +0.33% | Fermin Aldeguer +0.34% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Marc Marquez | Alex Marquez +0.27% | Franco Morbidelli +0.31% |
| S2 | Marc Marquez +0.21% | Alex Marquez +0.29% | Franco Morbidelli +0.29% |
| S3 | Marc Marquez | Alex Marquez +0.22% | Maverick Viñales +0.55% |
| S4 | Marc Marquez +0.15% | Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.17% | Fabio Quartararo +0.31% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Jorge Martin | Aleix Espargaro +0.35% | Enea Bastianini +0.45% |
| S2 | Alex Marquez +0.04% | Francesco Bagnaia +0.25% | Brad Binder +0.41% |
| S3 | Marc Marquez +0.05% | Alex Marquez +0.29% | Enea Bastianini +0.47% |
| S4 | Pedro Acosta +0.20% | Jorge Martin +0.25% | Enea Bastianini +0.27% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Jorge Martin | Maverick Viñales +0.39% | Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.49% |
| S2 | Fabio Quartararo +0.14% | Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.19% | Raul Fernandez +0.43% |
| S3 | Alex Marquez +0.19% | Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21% | Maverick Viñales +0.21% |
| S4 | Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.09% | Francesco Bagnaia +0.25% | Fabio Quartararo +0.32% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Jorge Martin +0.19% | Pol Espargaro +0.23% | Joan Mir +0.37% |
| S2 | Pol Espargaro +0.40% | Aleix Espargaro +0.43% | Enea Bastianini +0.47% |
| S3 | Alex Rins +0.07% | Miguel Oliveira +0.19% | Johann Zarco +0.42% |
| S4 | Francesco Bagnaia +0.26% | Jorge Martin +0.27% | Alex Rins +0.37% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Fabio Quartararo +0.25% | Maverick Viñales +0.29% | Jack Miller +0.35% |
| S2 | Johann Zarco +0.16% | Franco Morbidelli +0.22% | Fabio Quartararo +0.46% |
| S3 | Maverick Viñales | Aleix Espargaro +0.28% | Fabio Quartararo +0.37% |
| S4 | Johann Zarco +0.08% | Jack Miller +0.22% | Francesco Bagnaia +0.42% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Marc Marquez +0.14% | Danilo Petrucci +0.24% | Andrea Dovizioso +0.27% |
| S2 | Franco Morbidelli +0.08% | Valentino Rossi +0.37% | Marc Marquez +0.47% |
| S3 | Maverick Viñales +0.12% | Marc Marquez +0.21% | Fabio Quartararo +0.45% |
| S4 | Danilo Petrucci +0.10% | Marc Marquez +0.23% | Andrea Dovizioso +0.49% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Andrea Dovizioso +0.20% | Danilo Petrucci +0.22% | Jorge Lorenzo +0.26% |
| S2 | Valentino Rossi +0.23% | Johann Zarco +0.43% | Daniel Pedrosa +0.45% |
| S3 | Andrea Iannone +0.15% | Alex Rins +0.32% | Danilo Petrucci +0.35% |
| S4 | Andrea Dovizioso +0.01% | Marc Marquez +0.28% | Jorge Lorenzo +0.34% |
Fastest per sector: 2018–2026
Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.
A track for grid position, or an open one?
C15In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.
57/100
Position index
14%
Pole wins
48%
Front row on the podium
0.77
Grid ↔ result
When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 56%; 3 cases).
Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.
How they arrive in the standings
The last race here in numbers
2019 edition
92
Overtakes
4
Lead changes
3 leaders
18/22
Laps led by the winner
Andrea Dovizioso
0.023 s
Closest finish
Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P14 to P5.
Longest battle: Miguel Oliveira vs Pol Espargaro (15 laps).
Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.
Race pace at the last edition
C12019 edition
| Rider | Pace | Gap | Deg. s/lap | Rear | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Rins | 1:55.858 | — | +0.217 | Medium | 20 |
| Valentino Rossi | 1:55.882 | +0.024 | +0.508 | Medium | 20 |
| Marc Marquez | 1:55.895 | +0.037 | +0.210 | Medium | 20 |
| Andrea Dovizioso | 1:55.929 | +0.071 | +0.226 | Medium | 20 |
| Cal Crutchlow | 1:55.938 | +0.080 | +0.729 | Medium | 20 |
| Danilo Petrucci | 1:55.967 | +0.109 | +0.574 | Soft | 20 |
| Maverick Viñales | 1:55.990 | +0.132 | +0.292 | Medium | 20 |
| Joan Mir | 1:56.056 | +0.198 | +0.562 | Soft | 20 |
| Jack Miller | 1:56.078 | +0.220 | +0.105 | Medium | 10 |
| Takaaki Nakagami | 1:56.081 | +0.223 | +0.359 | Soft | 20 |
Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.
Winners here
- 2025Marc MarquezDucati
- 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
- 2023Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
- 2022Enea BastianiniDucati
- 2021Maverick ViñalesYamaha
- 2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati
- 2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
- 2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha
Attrition here
Average here 17% · global 19%
| Year | DNFs | % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4/22 | 18% |
| 2024 | 1/22 | 5% |
| 2023 | 2/21 | 10% |
| 2022 | 6/24 | 25% |
| 2021 | 3/22 | 14% |
| 2019 | 3/23 | 13% |
Tyres at the last edition
2019 edition
| Rear | Share | Rel. pace | Deg. s/lap | Wins | Podiums | Avg. pos. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 61% | +0.43% | +0.007 | 0 | 0 | 13.3 |
| Medium | 39% | +0.07% | −0.047 | 1 | 3 | 6.3 |
Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.