Round 9 of 15 Aftermath

Catalan Grand Prix 2020

4.655 m · 25 laps · since 1991

25.09 – 27.09.2020

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	40:33.176	25
2	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+0.928	20
3	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+1.898	16
4	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+2.846	13
5	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+3.391	11
6	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+3.518	10
7	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+3.671	9
8	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Ducati Team	+6.117	8
9	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+13.607	7
10	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+14.483	6
11	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+14.927	5
12	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+15.647	4
13	Alex Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+17.327	3
14	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+27.066	2
15	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+27.282	1
16	Bradley Smith	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+28.736	0
17	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+32.643	0
DNF	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Franco Morbidelli · 26%	Fabio Quartararo · 20% · from P2	0.84 / 0.84	2.2 / 2.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Valentino Rossi	1:40.602	—	+0.508	Soft	13
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.771	+0.169	+0.512	Soft	22
Fabio Quartararo	1:40.774	+0.172	+0.275	Soft	22
Miguel Oliveira	1:40.919	+0.317	+0.193	Soft	15
Joan Mir	1:40.931	+0.329	+0.562	Soft	22
Alex Rins	1:41.002	+0.400	+0.217	Soft	22
Pol Espargaro	1:41.003	+0.401	+0.406	Soft	10
Takaaki Nakagami	1:41.159	+0.557	+0.359	Soft	22
Danilo Petrucci	1:41.166	+0.564	+0.574	Soft	22
Francesco Bagnaia	1:41.170	+0.568	+0.221	Soft	22
Jack Miller	1:41.200	+0.598	+0.105	Soft	22
Brad Binder	1:41.357	+0.755	+0.327	Soft	22
Maverick Viñales	1:41.464	+0.862	+0.292	Soft	22
Cal Crutchlow	1:41.512	+0.910	+0.729	Soft	22
Aleix Espargaro	1:41.650	+1.048	+0.209	Soft	22
Alex Marquez	1:41.724	+1.122	+0.356	Soft	22
Tito Rabat	1:42.008	+1.406	+0.229	Soft	22
Stefan Bradl	1:42.096	+1.494	+0.530	Soft	22
Iker Lecuona	1:42.231	+1.629	+0.094	Soft	22
Bradley Smith	1:42.334	+1.732	+0.085	Soft	22

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

16/24

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Quartararo

0.928 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P13 to P3.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Cal Crutchlow (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	15:00:58	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:00:58	Andrea Dovizioso	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:01:42		Jump start	Jump start
Race	15:21:14	Pol Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:26:12	Valentino Rossi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:31:53	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Franco Morbidelli (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Rins	13	6	+7
Aleix Espargaro	15	9	+6
Alex Marquez	18	13	+5
Maverick Viñales	5	15	−10
Brad Binder	10	14	−4
Fabio Quartararo	2	3	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Rins	13→3	+7.5
Joan Mir	8→2	+5.3
Francesco Bagnaia	14→6	+5.2
Stefan Bradl	20→17	−2.0
Brad Binder	10→11	−2.4
Maverick Viñales	5→9	−3.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.58%	+0.077	1	3	9.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

17.8 °C

Air

max 18.0 °C

33%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

12 km/h

Wind

gusts 35 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 25.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.431	—	20	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.518	—	11	Medium
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.861	+0.430	19	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:41.908	+0.38%	6	Soft
3	Joan Mir	01:41.060	+0.629	20	340.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.948	+0.42%	16	Medium
4	Maverick Viñales	01:41.105	+0.674	22	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.555	+0.04%	15	Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:41.195	+0.764	19	342.8	Soft / Medium	1:42.267	+0.74%	10	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.219	+0.788	20	335.4	Soft / Medium	1:41.700	+0.18%	12	Medium
7	Alex Rins	01:41.316	+0.885	20	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:42.008	+0.48%	11	Medium
8	Valentino Rossi	01:41.536	+1.105	20	342.8	Soft / Medium	1:42.672	+1.14%	11	Medium
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:41.549	+1.118	19	337.5	Soft / Medium	1:42.596	+1.06%	11	Medium
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:41.592	+1.161	19	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:42.302	+0.77%	10	Medium
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:41.609	+1.178	20	338.5	Soft / Medium	1:42.472	+0.94%	7	Medium
12	Johann Zarco	01:41.625	+1.194	21	342.8	Soft / Medium	1:42.700	+1.16%	10	Medium
13	Iker Lecuona	01:41.640	+1.209	16	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:42.372	+0.84%	5	Medium
14	Bradley Smith	01:41.643	+1.212	21	338.5	Soft / Medium	1:43.027	+1.49%	15	Medium
15	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.790	+1.359	16	343.9	Medium / Soft	1:42.746	+1.21%	5	Medium
16	Pol Espargaro	01:41.833	+1.402	18	345.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Stefan Bradl	01:41.969	+1.538	19	341.7	Soft / Medium	1:43.299	+1.75%	11	Medium
18	Jack Miller	01:42.026	+1.595	17	347.2	Soft / Medium	1:42.607	+1.07%	4	Medium
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:42.059	+1.628	20	342.8	Soft / Medium	1:43.759	+2.21%	5	Medium
20	Alex Marquez	01:42.061	+1.630	22	343.9	Soft / Medium	1:42.545	+1.01%	13	Medium
21	Brad Binder	01:42.335	+1.904	20	340.6	Soft / Medium	1:43.321	+1.78%	5	Medium
22	Tito Rabat	01:42.992	+2.561	18	336.4	Soft / Medium	1:45.592	+4.01%	6	Medium

FP2 · 25.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.789	—	12	340.6	Soft / Soft	1:40.718	—	5	Medium
2	Johann Zarco	01:39.898	+0.109	17	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:41.810	+1.08%	5	Medium
3	Brad Binder	01:40.008	+0.219	19	341.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Maverick Viñales	01:40.208	+0.419	20	340.6	Medium / Soft	1:41.273	+0.55%	7	Medium
5	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.412	+0.623	19	338.5	Soft / Soft	1:42.689	+1.96%	5	Medium
6	Joan Mir	01:40.441	+0.652	19	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:41.788	+1.06%	5	Medium
7	Pol Espargaro	01:40.474	+0.685	20	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:41.816	+1.09%	5	Medium
8	Alex Marquez	01:40.478	+0.689	18	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:41.900	+1.17%	5	Medium
9	Valentino Rossi	01:40.502	+0.713	21	336.4	Soft / Soft	1:41.108	+0.39%	10	Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:40.538	+0.749	20	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:41.639	+0.91%	10	Medium
11	Jack Miller	01:40.626	+0.837	16	341.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.754	+0.965	20	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:42.206	+1.48%	5	Medium
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.791	+1.002	17	341.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.860	+1.071	16	339.6	Medium / Medium	1:42.383	+1.65%	5	Medium
15	Iker Lecuona	01:40.871	+1.082	17	338.5	Medium / Soft	1:42.290	+1.56%	6	Medium
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:41.028	+1.239	20	340.6	Medium / Soft	1:42.335	+1.61%	5	Medium
17	Bradley Smith	01:41.095	+1.306	20	340.6	Soft / Soft	1:42.887	+2.15%	14	Medium
18	Andrea Dovizioso	01:41.124	+1.335	19	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:41.805	+1.08%	5	Soft
19	Stefan Bradl	01:41.260	+1.471	14	341.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.337	+1.548	16	342.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Tito Rabat	01:41.673	+1.884	22	338.5	Soft / Soft	1:42.859	+2.13%	14	Medium
22	Danilo Petrucci	01:42.257	+2.468	18	342.8	Medium / Medium	1:43.780	+3.04%	10	Medium

FP3 · 26.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.418	—	18	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:40.665	—	7	Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:39.462	+0.044	21	342.8	Soft / Soft	1:41.115	+0.45%	8	Soft
3	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.507	+0.089	19	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.702	+0.284	20	347.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Johann Zarco	01:39.709	+0.291	21	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:42.157	+1.48%	5	Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	01:39.756	+0.338	21	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:40.969	+0.30%	9	Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.774	+0.356	20	339.6	Soft / Soft	1:40.954	+0.29%	8	Soft
8	Valentino Rossi	01:39.836	+0.418	20	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:41.564	+0.89%	6	Soft
9	Brad Binder	01:39.841	+0.423	20	348.3	Medium / Soft	1:40.885	+0.22%	6	Medium
10	Joan Mir	01:39.862	+0.444	19	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:41.063	+0.40%	7	Soft
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.897	+0.479	19	352.9	Soft / Soft	1:41.226	+0.56%	9	Medium
12	Jack Miller	01:39.919	+0.501	20	347.2	Soft / Soft	1:42.046	+1.37%	5	Soft
13	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.963	+0.545	20	351.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Alex Rins	01:40.016	+0.598	21	343.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.023	+0.605	15	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:41.698	+1.03%	6	Soft
16	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.071	+0.653	16	345.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.133	+0.715	17	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Bradley Smith	01:40.226	+0.808	19	340.6	Soft / Soft	1:41.305	+0.64%	13	Soft
19	Alex Marquez	01:40.283	+0.865	19	349.5	Soft / Soft	1:41.800	+1.13%	7	Soft
20	Tito Rabat	01:40.341	+0.923	19	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:43.574	+2.89%	5	Soft
21	Stefan Bradl	01:40.898	+1.480	19	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:41.976	+1.30%	6	Soft
22	Iker Lecuona	01:40.977	+1.559	16	342.8	Soft / Soft	1:41.452	+0.78%	6	Soft

FP4 · 26.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:40.315	—	17	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:40.775	+0.16%	11	Soft
2	Pol Espargaro	01:40.335	+0.020	16	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:40.618	—	10	Soft
3	Joan Mir	01:40.352	+0.037	18	342.8	Soft / Soft	1:41.027	+0.41%	14	Soft
4	Valentino Rossi	01:40.374	+0.059	16	342.8	Soft / Soft	1:40.779	+0.16%	12	Medium
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.377	+0.062	13	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:40.959	+0.34%	7	Soft
6	Brad Binder	01:40.564	+0.249	15	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:42.074	+1.45%	5	Medium
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.592	+0.277	10	351.7	Soft / Soft	1:41.174	+0.55%	6	Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.619	+0.304	18	338.5	Soft / Soft	1:41.169	+0.55%	15	Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:40.641	+0.326	15	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:41.077	+0.46%	11	Soft
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.659	+0.344	15	349.5	Soft / Soft	1:41.572	+0.95%	6	Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.685	+0.370	16	340.6	Medium / Soft	1:40.995	+0.38%	11	Soft
12	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.691	+0.376	14	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:41.402	+0.78%	5	Medium
13	Alex Rins	01:40.710	+0.395	13	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:40.904	+0.28%	5	Soft
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.751	+0.436	14	342.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Jack Miller	01:40.788	+0.473	16	349.5	Soft / Soft	1:41.194	+0.57%	13	Soft
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.814	+0.499	14	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:41.322	+0.70%	8	Soft
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.849	+0.534	16	347.2	Soft / Soft	1:41.870	+1.24%	8	Soft
18	Alex Marquez	01:41.130	+0.815	16	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:41.691	+1.07%	12	Soft
19	Stefan Bradl	01:41.182	+0.867	9	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:41.511	+0.89%	6	Soft
20	Iker Lecuona	01:41.331	+1.016	15	340.6	Medium / Medium	1:41.888	+1.26%	11	Medium
21	Tito Rabat	01:41.538	+1.223	16	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:42.114	+1.49%	10	Soft
22	Bradley Smith	01:41.645	+1.330	11	340.6	Medium / Medium	1:42.259	+1.63%	5	Medium

Q1 · 26.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jack Miller	01:39.399	—	8	350.6	Soft / Soft
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.547	+0.148	8	341.7	Soft / Soft
3	Alex Rins	01:39.751	+0.352	8	342.8	Soft / Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.777	+0.378	8	349.5	Soft / Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.973	+0.574	8	347.2	Medium / Soft
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.988	+0.589	8	346.1	Soft / Soft
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.109	+0.710	8	349.5	Soft / Soft
8	Alex Marquez	01:40.164	+0.765	8	346.1	Soft / Soft
9	Iker Lecuona	01:40.490	+1.091	8	341.7	Soft / Soft
10	Stefan Bradl	01:40.721	+1.322	8	342.8	Soft / Soft
11	Bradley Smith	01:40.838	+1.439	8	341.7	Soft / Soft
12	Tito Rabat	01:41.013	+1.614	8	347.2	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 26.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.798	—	8	339.6	Soft / Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.008	+0.210	8	345.0	Soft / Soft
3	Valentino Rossi	01:39.129	+0.331	7	345.0	Soft / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:39.225	+0.427	8	350.6	Soft / Soft
5	Maverick Viñales	01:39.371	+0.573	7	343.9	Soft / Soft
6	Johann Zarco	01:39.378	+0.580	8	346.1	Soft / Soft
7	Pol Espargaro	01:39.495	+0.697	8	345.0	Medium / Soft
8	Joan Mir	01:39.628	+0.830	8	345.0	Soft / Soft
9	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.641	+0.843	8	347.2	Soft / Soft
10	Brad Binder	01:39.659	+0.861	8	346.1	Medium / Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.713	+0.915	8	343.9	Soft / Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.188	+1.390	7	341.7	Soft / Soft

Warm Up · 27.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.139	—	10	342.8	Soft / Soft	1:40.274	—	7	Soft
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.319	+0.180	12	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:40.556	+0.28%	5	Soft
3	Valentino Rossi	01:40.340	+0.201	12	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:40.920	+0.64%	8	Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.473	+0.334	12	340.6	Soft / Soft	1:40.788	+0.51%	8	Soft
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.487	+0.348	12	347.2	Soft / Soft	1:40.898	+0.62%	6	Soft
6	Joan Mir	01:40.526	+0.387	12	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:40.791	+0.52%	9	Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	01:40.552	+0.413	12	340.6	Soft / Soft	1:40.857	+0.58%	9	Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:40.572	+0.433	12	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:41.832	+1.55%	10	Soft
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.597	+0.458	12	350.6	Soft / Soft	1:41.168	+0.89%	8	Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.651	+0.512	12	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:41.059	+0.78%	9	Soft
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.695	+0.556	12	347.2	Soft / Soft	1:41.166	+0.89%	10	Soft
12	Alex Marquez	01:40.695	+0.556	12	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:41.180	+0.90%	9	Soft
13	Brad Binder	01:40.700	+0.561	10	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:40.838	+0.56%	5	Soft
14	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.745	+0.606	12	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:41.428	+1.15%	10	Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.789	+0.650	12	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:41.263	+0.99%	9	Soft
16	Jack Miller	01:40.801	+0.662	12	350.6	Soft / Soft	1:41.344	+1.07%	10	Soft
17	Pol Espargaro	01:40.830	+0.691	12	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:41.262	+0.99%	9	Soft
18	Alex Rins	01:40.888	+0.749	10	347.2	Soft / Soft	1:41.284	+1.01%	6	Soft
19	Tito Rabat	01:41.166	+1.027	12	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:41.653	+1.38%	8	Soft
20	Iker Lecuona	01:41.345	+1.206	12	342.8	Soft / Soft	1:41.708	+1.43%	8	Soft
21	Bradley Smith	01:41.384	+1.245	12	340.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.637	+1.36%	10	Medium
22	Stefan Bradl	01:41.562	+1.423	12	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:41.814	+1.54%	10	Soft

Race · 27.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	40:33.176	25	24	Soft / Soft	1:40.774	+0.17%	22	Soft
2	Joan Mir	+0.928	20	24	Soft / Soft	1:40.931	+0.33%	22	Soft
3	Alex Rins	+1.898	16	24	Soft / Soft	1:41.002	+0.40%	22	Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	+2.846	13	24	Soft / Soft	1:40.771	+0.17%	22	Soft
5	Jack Miller	+3.391	11	24	Soft / Soft	1:41.200	+0.59%	22	Soft
6	Francesco Bagnaia	+3.518	10	24	Soft / Soft	1:41.170	+0.57%	22	Soft
7	Takaaki Nakagami	+3.671	9	24	Soft / Soft	1:41.159	+0.55%	22	Soft
8	Danilo Petrucci	+6.117	8	24	Soft / Soft	1:41.166	+0.56%	22	Soft
9	Maverick Viñales	+13.607	7	24	Soft / Soft	1:41.464	+0.86%	22	Soft
10	Cal Crutchlow	+14.483	6	24	Soft / Soft	1:41.512	+0.91%	22	Soft
11	Brad Binder	+14.927	5	24	Medium / Soft	1:41.357	+0.75%	22	Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	+15.647	4	24	Medium / Soft	1:41.650	+1.04%	22	Soft
13	Alex Marquez	+17.327	3	24	Medium / Soft	1:41.724	+1.12%	22	Soft
14	Iker Lecuona	+27.066	2	24	Soft / Soft	1:42.231	+1.62%	22	Soft
15	Tito Rabat	+27.282	1	24	Soft / Soft	1:42.008	+1.40%	22	Soft
16	Bradley Smith	+28.736	0	24	Soft / Soft	1:42.334	+1.72%	22	Soft
17	Stefan Bradl	+32.643	0	24	Soft / Soft	1:42.096	+1.49%	22	Soft
Out on lap 1	Andrea Dovizioso		0	0	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Johann Zarco		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	18	Medium / Soft	1:40.919	+0.32%	15	Soft
Retired	Pol Espargaro		0	12	Medium / Soft	1:41.003	+0.40%	10	Soft
Retired	Valentino Rossi		0	15	Soft / Soft	1:40.602	—	13	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:41.012	—	+0.275	Medium	5
Alex Rins	1:41.496	+0.484	+0.217	Medium	5
Maverick Viñales	1:41.541*	+0.529	+0.292	Medium	3
Alex Marquez	1:41.696*	+0.684	+0.356	Medium	3
Iker Lecuona	1:41.769	+0.757	+0.094	Medium	10
Miguel Oliveira	1:41.823	+0.811	+0.193	Medium	6
Brad Binder	1:41.968	+0.956	+0.327	Medium	5
Valentino Rossi	1:42.009*	+0.997	+0.508	Medium	3
Jack Miller	1:42.030*	+1.018	+0.105	Medium	4
Pol Espargaro	1:42.190*	+1.178	+0.406	Medium	4
Aleix Espargaro	1:42.216*	+1.204	+0.209	Medium	3
Danilo Petrucci	1:42.405*	+1.393	+0.574	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Francesco Bagnaia	59%	4
2	Jack Miller	44%	1 ✓
3	Andrea Dovizioso	32%	7
4	Alex Rins	19%	3
5	Takaaki Nakagami	17%	2 ✓
6	Cal Crutchlow	9%	6
7	Aleix Espargaro	9%	5
8	Bradley Smith	4%	11
9	Alex Marquez	2%	8
10	Tito Rabat	3%	12
11	Iker Lecuona	2%	9
12	Stefan Bradl	1%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Quartararo	38%	69%	91%	2
2	Maverick Viñales	26%	52%	84%	5
3	Miguel Oliveira	17%	50%	82%	12
4	Danilo Petrucci	4%	32%	68%	9
5	Johann Zarco	3%	28%	54%	6
6	Pol Espargaro	7%	22%	56%	7
7	Franco Morbidelli	1%	11%	43%	1
8	Valentino Rossi	2%	11%	35%	3
9	Brad Binder	1%	8%	29%	10
10	Joan Mir	2%	7%	20%	8
11	Jack Miller	1%	8%	23%	4
12	Takaaki Nakagami	0%	3%	15%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Franco Morbidelli	1	26%	54%	66%	76%	21%	4
Fabio Quartararo	2	20%	49%	67%	79%	19%	1
Valentino Rossi	3	17%	50%	70%	87%	10%	—
Jack Miller	4	10%	33%	51%	70%	26%	5
Maverick Viñales	5	9%	32%	54%	82%	13%	9
Johann Zarco	6	6%	25%	47%	78%	16%	—
Pol Espargaro	7	4%	17%	36%	70%	21%	—
Joan Mir	8	3%	13%	29%	67%	21%	2
Danilo Petrucci	9	2%	9%	22%	64%	20%	8
Brad Binder	10	1%	5%	15%	55%	24%	11
Takaaki Nakagami	11	1%	5%	14%	59%	11%	7
Miguel Oliveira	12	0%	3%	9%	50%	14%	—
Alex Rins	13	1%	2%	7%	40%	20%	3
Francesco Bagnaia	14	0%	1%	4%	28%	33%	6
Aleix Espargaro	15	0%	1%	3%	25%	26%	12
Cal Crutchlow	16	0%	1%	2%	19%	28%	10
Andrea Dovizioso	17	0%	1%	2%	17%	12%	—
Alex Marquez	18	0%	0%	1%	13%	9%	13
Iker Lecuona	19	0%	0%	0%	5%	44%	14
Stefan Bradl	20	0%	0%	0%	7%	20%	17
Bradley Smith	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	13%	16
Tito Rabat	22	0%	0%	0%	4%	20%	15

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,669 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%	Pedro Acosta +0.44%	Aleix Espargaro +0.46%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.36%	Brad Binder +0.45%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.46%	Fabio Quartararo +0.47%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Francesco Bagnaia +0.53%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.78%
S2	Alex Marquez	Joan Mir +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.43%
S4	Joan Mir +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.21%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.45%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Johann Zarco +0.31%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Pedro Acosta +0.51%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.30%	Marc Marquez +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.03%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.37%	Brad Binder +0.41%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.12%	Brad Binder +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.13%
S4	Raul Fernandez	Aleix Espargaro +0.25%	Brad Binder +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.01%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.14%	Brad Binder +0.27%
S2	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S3	Miguel Oliveira +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.19%	Enea Bastianini +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.44%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.42%
S3	Alex Rins +0.21%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.36%	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%	Jorge Martin +0.57%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Johann Zarco	Miguel Oliveira +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.40%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Fabio Quartararo +0.07%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.38%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Jack Miller +0.41%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.34%
S3	Valentino Rossi +0.22%	Pol Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Valentino Rossi +0.16%	Brad Binder +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Joan Mir +0.33%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.18%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Alex Rins +0.35%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Valentino Rossi +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.19%
S2	Jorge Lorenzo +0.15%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%	Maverick Viñales +0.20%
S3	Andrea Iannone	Jorge Lorenzo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.12%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Johann Zarco +0.19%

Fastest per sector: 2020

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

52/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 86% of the time (between 49% and 97%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	108	—
2	Joan Mir	100	−8
3	Maverick Viñales	90	−18
4	Andrea Dovizioso	84	−24
5	Franco Morbidelli	77	−31
6	Jack Miller	75	−33

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2019 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

23/24

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.660 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Iannone, from P24 to P11.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Fabio Quartararo (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2019 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:40.932	—	+0.210	Soft	22
Cal Crutchlow	1:41.060	+0.128	+0.729	Medium	16
Fabio Quartararo	1:41.089	+0.157	+0.275	Medium	22
Danilo Petrucci	1:41.132	+0.200	+0.574	Soft	22
Alex Rins	1:41.166	+0.234	+0.217	Medium	21
Joan Mir	1:41.175	+0.243	+0.562	Medium	21
Jack Miller	1:41.222	+0.290	+0.105	Medium	22
Franco Morbidelli	1:41.441	+0.509	+0.512	Hard	14
Pol Espargaro	1:41.508	+0.576	+0.406	Soft	22
Takaaki Nakagami	1:41.574	+0.642	+0.359	Soft	22

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Miguel OliveiraKTM
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 25% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/22	23%
2025	7/24	29%
2024	3/23	13%
2023	3/20	15%
2022	8/25	32%
2021	6/21	29%

Tyres at the last edition

2019 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	46%	+0.29%	+0.010	0	1	7.3
Soft	46%	+0.60%	+0.034	1	2	6.0
Hard	9%	+0.71%	+0.012	0	0	10.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.