Round 10 of 15 Aftermath

French Grand Prix 2020

4.185 m · 27 laps · since 1969

11.10 – 11.10.2020

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Ducati Team	45:54.736	25
2	Alex Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+1.273	20
3	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+1.711	16
4	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+3.911	13
5	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+4.310	11
6	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+4.466	10
7	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+5.921	9
8	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+15.597	8
9	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+16.687	7
10	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+16.895	6
11	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+16.980	5
12	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+27.321	4
13	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+33.351	3
14	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+39.176	2
15	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+51.087	1
DNF	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Finished in pit lane	0
DNF	Bradley Smith	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	Retired	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Out on lap 1	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 29%	Danilo Petrucci · 16% · from P3	0.32 / 0.32	3.9 / 4.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

The race in numbers

Race

101

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

26/26

Laps led by the winner

Danilo Petrucci

1.273 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Marquez, from P18 to P2.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Jack Miller (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Danilo Petrucci (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Bradley Smith	19	9	+10
Alex Rins	16	7	+9
Stefan Bradl	21	13	+8
Maverick Viñales	5	20	−15
Francesco Bagnaia	7	18	−11
Franco Morbidelli	11	17	−6

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Wet-Soft	86%	+0.71%	−0.208	1	3	8.0
Wet-Medium	14%	+0.30%	−0.271	0	0	8.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

14.1 °C

Air

max 14.2 °C

71%

Humidity

0.2 mm

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 36 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Brad Binder	58%	7
2	Joan Mir	44%	4
3	Danilo Petrucci	32%	1 ✓
4	Takaaki Nakagami	19%	3
5	Francesco Bagnaia	17%	2 ✓
6	Alex Rins	9%	6
7	Aleix Espargaro	9%	5
8	Tito Rabat	4%	12
9	Alex Marquez	2%	8
10	Iker Lecuona	3%	10
11	Stefan Bradl	2%	11
12	Bradley Smith	1%	9

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Quartararo	37%	69%	91%	1
2	Miguel Oliveira	25%	52%	84%	12
3	Franco Morbidelli	16%	50%	81%	11
4	Jack Miller	4%	32%	68%	2
5	Cal Crutchlow	3%	28%	55%	4
6	Maverick Viñales	7%	22%	55%	5
7	Johann Zarco	2%	11%	43%	9
8	Valentino Rossi	2%	12%	36%	10
9	Pol Espargaro	1%	8%	29%	8
10	Andrea Dovizioso	2%	7%	20%	6
11	Danilo Petrucci	1%	8%	24%	3
12	Francesco Bagnaia	0%	3%	15%	7

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	29%	58%	71%	80%	19%	9
Jack Miller	2	19%	46%	61%	72%	25%	—
Danilo Petrucci	3	16%	44%	62%	77%	20%	1
Cal Crutchlow	4	10%	33%	50%	69%	28%	—
Maverick Viñales	5	9%	32%	54%	82%	13%	10
Andrea Dovizioso	6	6%	27%	50%	80%	13%	4
Francesco Bagnaia	7	3%	15%	31%	61%	32%	13
Pol Espargaro	8	3%	14%	31%	67%	21%	3
Johann Zarco	9	2%	9%	23%	67%	17%	5
Valentino Rossi	10	1%	8%	20%	67%	11%	—
Franco Morbidelli	11	1%	4%	13%	52%	21%	—
Miguel Oliveira	12	1%	4%	11%	49%	17%	6
Takaaki Nakagami	13	0%	3%	8%	47%	11%	7
Joan Mir	14	0%	2%	5%	34%	20%	11
Aleix Espargaro	15	0%	1%	3%	25%	26%	14
Alex Rins	16	0%	1%	2%	23%	19%	—
Brad Binder	17	0%	0%	1%	15%	23%	12
Alex Marquez	18	0%	0%	1%	13%	8%	2
Bradley Smith	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	13%	—
Iker Lecuona	20	0%	0%	0%	4%	41%	15
Stefan Bradl	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	20%	8
Tito Rabat	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	20%	—

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

The layout

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,197 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

33/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.69

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	115	—
2	Joan Mir	105	−10
3	Andrea Dovizioso	97	−18
4	Maverick Viñales	96	−19
5	Takaaki Nakagami	81	−34
6	Franco Morbidelli	77	−38

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2019 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

25/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.984 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P19 to P10.

Longest battle: Hafizh Syahrin vs Miguel Oliveira (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2019 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:32.817	—	+0.210	Soft	25
Andrea Dovizioso	1:32.894	+0.077	+0.226	Soft	25
Danilo Petrucci	1:32.918	+0.101	+0.574	Soft	25
Valentino Rossi	1:32.935	+0.118	+0.508	Soft	25
Jack Miller	1:32.954	+0.137	+0.105	Soft	24
Pol Espargaro	1:33.006	+0.189	+0.406	Soft	25
Fabio Quartararo	1:33.024	+0.207	+0.275	Soft	24
Franco Morbidelli	1:33.051	+0.234	+0.512	Soft	25
Cal Crutchlow	1:33.128	+0.311	+0.729	Soft	25
Alex Rins	1:33.256	+0.439	+0.217	Soft	25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Jorge MartinAprilia
2025Johann ZarcoHonda
2024Jorge MartinDucati
2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Jack MillerDucati
2020Danilo PetrucciDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/21	24%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	8/21	38%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	6/22	27%

Tyres at the last edition

2019 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.58%	−0.013	1	3	8.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.